NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/30/2022 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2022
- PR High: 11522.00
- PR Low: 11497.75
- NZ Spread: 54.25
Evening Stats (As of 12:15 AM)
- Weekend Gap: -0.46% (filled)
- 8/19 Session Gap: -0.04% (open > 13237)
- Session Open ATR: 283.97
- Volume: 16K
- Open Int: 248K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From ATH: -31.2% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 12391
- Mid: 11820
- Short: 10678
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
Lowvols
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/23/2022 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2022
- PR High: 11751.75
- PR Low: 11730.00
- NZ Spread: 48.75
Evening Stats (As of 12:25 AM)
- Weekend Gap: -0.10% (filled)
- 8/19 Session Gap: -0.04% (open > 13237)
- Session Open ATR: 315.62
- Volume: 13K
- Open Int: 247K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From ATH: -30.1% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 12391
- Mid: 11820
- Short: 10678
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/17/2022 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2022
- PR High: 11784.50
- PR Low: 11769.00
- NZ Spread: 34.50
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: -0.39% (filled)
- 8/19 Session Gap: -0.04% (open > 13237)
- Session Open ATR: 347.45
- Volume: 18K
- Open Int: 258K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From ATH: -30.0% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 12391
- Mid: 11820
- Short: 10678
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/15/2022 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2022
- PR High: 11785.00
- PR Low: 11765.25
- NZ Spread: 44.25
Evening Stats (As of 12:15 AM)
- Weekend Gap: -0.39% (filled)
- 8/29 Weekend Gap: -0.18% (open > 13125)
- 8/19 Session Gap: -0.04% (open > 13540)
- Session Open ATR: 358.38
- Volume: 23K
- Open Int: 261K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From ATH: -29.6% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 12391
- Mid: 11820
- Short: 10678
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/10/2022 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2022
- PR High: 10855.75
- PR Low: 10834.50
- NZ Spread: 47.75
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: -0.77% (filled)
- 8/29 Weekend Gap: -0.18% (open > 13125)
- 8/19 Session Gap: -0.04% (open > 13540)
- Session Open ATR: 343.42
- Volume: 23K
- Open Int: 266K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From ATH: -35.1% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 12391
- Mid: 11820
- Short: 10678
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
APPLE 4% ALGO SPIKE? LOWER VOLS & VOLU; HIGHER NEGATIV VOLS CORRAlgo spike 4% to $101.8?
At 18:19 BST Apple stock surged from 99. to $101.8 and back again all within a minute.
It was Likely to be algo driven OR a data/exchange error - though no news outlets reported either or offered any other speculation.
Though $101.8 is the closest near by resistance strong hold for apple, so it would be a weird coincidence for a "data error" to trade to that price - equally as possible none the less.
IMO, because there was little volatility after the event and also because Apple is now struggling to break the $100 i think it was probably a data/exchange error. If it was an actual demand induced algo spike, the stock would have experienced signifcant price volatility after the event as much of the markets TP/SL levels would have caused a large wave of stochastic automated buying/selling as positions are closed out.
Further, if the spike was real, apple should have been able to trade above $100 easily today;
1. As $101.8 would be a clear bull target level.
2. as the spike would have removed all of the $100TP selling pressure last night - meaning there would be little volume left to continue long squeeze selling today (which annoyingly has been the case).
Volume
Apple Volume fell significantly on Monday by 40% to 23m vs 39m (1month av.) and 43m (6month av.).
In the first half of trading today, volume was also 7% down from yesterdays first half at 11.23m vs 12.0m - signalling today may continue the bullish trend.
This is Bullish IMO as it shows that at these prices holders are not willing to sell their AAPL risk at these prices, as they seek higher prices before they offer higher supply, hence volume stays low and the stock trades with a bid bias - hence the gap up at the open today - illustrating the supply & demand disequilibrium caused by low supply side liquidity and maintained order demand.
Volatility & Apple vs VXAP Correlation
We continue to have a bullish view from a vols perspective as vols dropped yesterday despite an algo driven spike to $101.8 (4%). Apples CBOE VXAP continued to sell off, closing yesterday at 21.64 from 21.73 Friday.
Also the correlation between APPLE and its Implied volatility index continued to fall deeper into negative territory - surpassing levels seen in the last bull run to $112 which peaked at 90% (92% to 94%), This reinforces the bullish volatility signal - as historically, a higher negative relationship sets the best environment for Apple price growth.
LOW VOLUME, VOLATILITY & PRICE + CORRS TURN NEGATIVE (LONG AAPL)The strong fundamentals aside, Apple is showing signs of upside stability and momentum.
IMO after a failing bear run last week this week we are set up for a week of gains, given that friday - the naturally bearish day for stocks, apple managed to close higher, going against the trend of the previous two days of high volume and losses, and instead, carving itself out some strong support at 97-98.
reasoning for apple upside recently has been:
1. to start the febuary bull run we saw, correlation between Apples price and Vols turn negative from positive - and establish the correct relationship of lower volatility and higher price, as the greater stability provides a home for more liquidity.
- at the end of may correlations between the two did the same again - moving from positive to negative. shortly after apple recovered from 90-100. The negative relationship is still holding (infact increasing) and therefore i take it as a bullish sign, as more investors should flow into the stock.
2. The Febuary bull run was characterised by lower than average volume, as IMO, the market had less sellers in due to the cheap value apple was providing at the <100. Once again in the last 2 weeks apple is showing lower than average volume, which i am again taking as bullish. Low volume at these prices only means one thing - holders do not want to sell at these prices and thus the price must be bid up to encourage more selling.
- also the low sell side liquidity may cause the stock to trade gappy, until we reach the 100 level again, where volume may pick up again as uncertainty increases selling.
3. Volatility for apple is at yearly lows at 21 flat. Low vols in this price environment, is very bullish for the stock, as it is cheap and safe, the two characteristics investors seek. Further, it was in the may-June period 2015 where vols were last at 21 flat AND also when apple made its record highs several times at 134, Thus, the low vols and previous price action at the same time last year gives me a positive outlook on the stock.
This week id like to see a 101 close, ideally a 103 close. I believe apple is cheap even at 115-120 given its only 11/2x p:e for a leading tech company which is low.
Apple risk at these prices is super low, I am personally buying apple at any price below $100 with a 6-12 month target in line with the market at 120+.