Get started

Lowvolume

ARK/BTC Potential 80% bounce from the trendline? Hello traders! After taking a look in to this chart i have seen some potential if the price bounces of the trend line (which was once already broken in the past). For a small help there is a random support/resistence line which i have no clue about why is it there. The rsi just bounced back up a bit but the Stoch just crossed on bearish side. The confirmation should be in near days if this will be a bull run we will se some green in there and some more volume (which is really low at the moment) that will be indicating accumulation from other people before the real bull run. If we see a broken trendline the next target would be .236 fib
Long
by Cidoguy
Temporary Correction for LTC; Down to 115 it goes.LTC just finished 5 Elliot waves on the 1 hr, 15 min, and 5 min chart. imgur.com In addition, RSI is overbought at 80 and is showing bearish divergence. The decrease in volumes mean a decrease in the number buyers. Once there are no buyers the bears take over and push the prices down. The uptrend is obviously losing a lot of momentum and will likely experience some temporary corrections. Using a Fibonacci Retracement, we get a target buyback zone from 89 to 115. I know that is a big area, but we simply don't have enough information right now to pinpoint the low. This is only a temporary pull back and we should resume the uptrend soon.
BITFINEX:LTCUSDShort
by aoeuaoeu
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: BTC Highs. What's Going On?ETHUSD Update: Nice breakout of 310 on rising volume , but no follow through while BTC is making all time highs? Although price structure remains bullish , I interpret this lack of follow through as a sign of weakness. If BTC is the leader, what happens if there is a healthy retracement in that market? Or is the correlation unwinding? I don't want to be long from these levels to find out. First let's cover the bullish argument. The 279 level is still intact, there is a higher low at 295 which is a sign of strength. The breakout at 310 occurred, and price is sitting on the recent swing high. If BTC was exhibiting the same behavior, all this price action would be acceptable, but BTC is pushing serious highs and that adds new context to this situation. It is very possible that this market is just slow to react for whatever reason, and will grind higher, but I would be very cautious at these levels. Certainly not looking to put on any new trades, risk is too high. At this point I will be focusing more on watching the risk. If this market falls below the 295 minor support and retests the 279 level, that would be the only area I would consider for a long, using the 263 level as a stop. If 263 is taken out, then this market is more inclined to exhibit a larger consolidation. Keep in mind, if the market has a pull back of this degree, the larger trend will still be bullish . It would have to go below 208 to put the larger trend in question. I am not predicting the degree of pullback, all I am saying is if it is a little more uncomfortable than expected, do not be distracted by all the noise that will follow. Keep your eye on the price action around the major supports for clues. In summary, in terms of price structure, this market still exhibits strength, but in light of the BTC performance, this market is acting relatively weak and when I see this kind of behavior I become very cautious. To be clear, I am still long term bullish , but this lack of follow through may lead to a retest of the deeper support levels. I will answer all the questions and comments from the previous reports and this one also, so any additional comments or questions are welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
22
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Resistance May Lead To Retrace.ETHUSD Update: The 215 minor support held as price slowly climbs back into the 227 to 240 resistance zone . The 215 support is a higher low structure which is usually a sign of further strength, but the problem at the moment is lack of follow through which can be attributed to low volume . If this market fails to take out the 240 resistance, a retrace back into low 200s is possible. The lack of excitement or volume may be stemming from the BCH price action as one trader pointed out in my previous report. The price action in BCH is the kind of chaos that I expected in the BTC and ETH markets on Tuesday. It has a 300+ dollar range (in 1 day) and is still on the move, while the regulars move with muted enthusiasm. The area to keep an eye on at the moment is the 227 to 240 resistance zone . It is related to the .382 of the recent bear swing that came off the 412 high. The fact that a higher low has formed beneath it is a bullish sign and a push above 241 is more likely which should take price into the next resistance in the 250 to 280 zone. IF price manages to push beyond that, then the 306 resistance area (.618 of broad bear swing) is the next obstacle. In order to get price moving toward these levels, there needs to be a catalyst to kick start the volume back into this market. Something along the lines of "The SEC approves ETH ETF" would get things moving at the speed that we have been accustomed to in this market. Keep in mind IF we do not break the 241 resistance, and price fails here, that would signal short term weakness and likely be followed by a retracement into the low 200s along with consolidating price action. The 215 and 210 supports are likely to break in this scenario because the 241 resistance is of greater magnitude and I would look to the low 200s to low 190s for reversal patterns back up. In summary, slow markets can be caused by many factors like the ones I have highlighted in my reports. Opportunity still exists on the short term, it just requires more patience. If a bullish catalyst appears out of nowhere, this market should push higher beyond the 241 resistance and into the 250 to 280 area before it finds another level to hesitate. These levels serve as good targets if you are looking to maximize short term profits. If price retreats from the current level, it is nothing to panic about in my opinion, as long as it holds the 190s or high 180s. Comments and questions welcome. Anyone interested in seeing a BCH evaluation?
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
22
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Higher Low, Where's The Volume?ETHUSD Update: Small retrace off of yesterday's high, with a development of a minor support zone within the 210 to 215 area. Volume is still very low which may have something to do with the seasonality of financial markets in general. Volume needs to pick up in order for this trend to continue. After trading multiple asset classes for years, I learned one thing: summer time trading in the U.S. is always slow whether you are in stocks, futures, even forex at times. These new markets may be feeling that effect as well even though the BTC drama is over. The reason for this seasonal pattern is simple: the entire world goes on vacation in August. Just look at the hotel prices in any of the Caribbean islands. It is peak season. And it's not just Americans driving that demand. I would think by now volume would be back to normal and it's way below (33k? that's low). Keep in mind price can move in a low volume environment, but usually the moves are more random and lack follow through. With that being said, I am still interested in buying. I am watching the 210 inverted support which now has a minor zone going up to 215. This zone is related to the .382 of the most recent upswing that was put in place yesterday. I want to see a price pattern reversal on a smaller time frame such as an hourly or 30 minute to get me into a long. Since volume is low, I will compensate for the additional randomness by only putting on 50% of my normal unit size. If I manage to get long my stop will be around 195 and my first target at 249. If price falls through this minor support, the 200 to 185 support zone is my next area to watch for reversals and depending on the price action there, I can determine my risk at that time if a reversal pattern appears according to my trading plan. In summary, based on structures put in place so far, this market is still strong and healthy, it just needs more volume. I am watching for price to retrace into two particular areas, the 215 to 210 and/or the 200 to 185 for possible long positions. If there are any surprises and price falls below 160, then my bullish evaluation is negated. Otherwise, be patient, strong markets offer plenty of opportunity. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
18
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: More Strength, No Volume.ETHUSD Update: Less than a day to go for the big BTC event and this market is continuing to build price structures that imply strength. After the initial push up to 213 and attempted break of the 208 resistance, price has retraced to the 190 to 184 minor support which is an ideal location to form a higher low. This market is presenting a broader higher low which I wrote about previously, (see linked report) and is now in the process of building a minor higher low structure. Higher lows appear when real selling is absent in a market, and typically lead to higher highs. The broader HL followed by this minor HL implies further strength. What make these higher lows even more interesting is where the buyers are expressing the most interest and that is in the support zones that are related to the .618 of each respective swing. If the BTC drama was not happening tomorrow, I would be buying into these structures. Reason I am not buying: There is extreme lack of volume which removes some credibility from these formations. BTC has also been showing technical signs of strength (see linked report) but all the analysis in the world will not be able to foresee any fundamental surprises that can cause wild swings in both directions. Plus there is no confirmation at the moment that meets the conditions of my trading plan. Another push beyond the 208 resistance, and this market is likely to reach the 230 to 240 resistance zone. A break of that compromises the recent bearish swing and sets the stage for the 300s. Keep in mind the kind of swing that can occur upon tomorrows news can be extreme and it is very possible that wide stops can be taken out. That's why if I did take a position now, I would not place a stop until after the wild ride is over. In order to do this, you must be willing to lose your entire investment. And if the market goes straight up, and you feel like you missed the bottom, do not worry, strong and healthy markets offer plenty of opportunity to profit, you do not need to buy the bottom. As long as the uptrend stays intact there will be more swings to buy. On the low side, if this market does NOT go below 136 and finds support at a higher price after tomorrows news, I would see that as a sign of strength as well. A break of the 136 low is a negative sign, and that would prompt me to reevaluate my bullish outlook. In summary, this market, just like BTC is presenting price structures that indicate strength. Higher lows typically lead to higher highs. The key is to see how this market reacts and settles after tomorrow's big event. If the support levels are tested and hold up, that will provide further evidence that buyers are in control and it is then just a matter of defining risk. I won't be able to do that effectively until after the big event. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
10
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Tight Range Low Volume. Zzzzz.ETHUSD Update: New range bound condition established between 190 support and 205 resistance on declining average volume. With August 1st around the corner, I don't expect much follow through from this market. The 205 resistance which I mentioned in yesterday's report continues to hold, (.382) of previous bear swing. A break higher would indicate that the bearish momentum that took the market to this area has been absorbed. As long as this level holds, price is likely to decline into the 183 to 163 support zone. There is a triple bottom that has formed under declining volume (see chart) which makes this bullish reversal formation less reliable. Range bound markets express equilibrium. It means both buyers and sellers are in agreement. A trending market is where there is an imbalance and one group dominates over the other. On the bigger picture, the buyers are still in control, since the 190 low is much higher than the 136 recent low. Higher lows typically lead to higher highs. Since this market depends on the outcome of 8/1, we must be prepared for anything, because events like this cannot be anticipated from a technical point of view. The other factor that we are contending with is volume. Low volume makes price patterns, break outs and other signals much less reliable. These conditions are known for a much higher degree of randomness, and from my experience, are best to avoid. Keep in mind when your broker sends you an email explaining that your withdrawals are going to be halted, and that you need to put your request in by 7/31, that is going to create fear (especially when you follow their instructions, and they still delay your withdrawal). And you get this email after reading about one ICO scam after another. Not good for facilitating volume in a market. I am still interested in buying into this market for a swing trade, and if I get my price validation within the price zone that my trading plan calls for, I am willing to take risk even before 8/1. I will just have to start smaller, and use a much wider stop than usual. If for some reason price breaks out to the upside before 8/1, there are quite a few resistance levels to contend with like the 212 (former support), and the 230 area. I would be surprised if price can make this progress before Tuesday and expect it to continue to stay range bound or find a new range at lower prices. In summary, 190 to 205 is the current range within a declining volume environment. Price patterns and signals are going to be less reliable, but I am prepared to get back in within the 183 to 163 support zone if the market shows me a reversal pattern. Risk is higher and must be adjusted for especially before 8/1. Otherwise I will stay flat and continue to watch. Also I have a question to all my readers: What other markets would you like to see an evaluation on? I write about ETH because it seems this is what the community gets the most out of, but I follow many other markets as well.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
37
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels:Triangle Breaks. More Uncertainty.ETHUSD Update: Triangle is broken by weakness and minor supports taken out. The 183 to 163 support zone is the next area I will be looking for reversal patterns to buy back in. The 214 area support which is the .382 of the recent upswing has been compromised which indicates that the bullish momentum generated from the 136 low is not driving this market at the moment and further consolidation is likely. My long from 228 was stopped out for a small loss at 207. Small losses are the best losses. I was never able to justify adding at 224, and this is exactly the reason why I do not place blind limit orders in the market at a predetermined support. I wait for validation, which helps me to more often than not avoid support breaks like the 224 level. So what's next? The BTC drama has created too much uncertainty around the hard fork that is now happening on 8/1. To make matters more uncertain, brokers like Coinbase are giving account holders a hard time with withdrawals and web articles are warning participants to find out what their third party key holders are going to do about the hard fork. With August 1st being only a week away, I expect fear and volume to get worse. Think about it, do you think a sane person will have the confidence to put on a large position right now. Would you? On that note, this price action is not overly bearish. It is just weak enough to force out weak hands. The next area of actionable support is the 183 to 163 zone which is related to the .618 of the recent upswing off of the 136 low. I will look to buy upon smaller time frame reversals within that zone ONLY, even if they appear before 8/1, but I will compensate for the uncertainty by once again going in with only 10% of my usual size. If price falls below 163, I will hold off on any buying and reevaluate because that would indicate a much weaker market. Also I will not buy any reversals unless they now appear within the support zone mentioned above. In my opinion, in this low volume environment, there are going to be too many false breakouts, and price action tends to be much more random. Best way to navigate it is to stay out. So if I am going to take a risk, it has to be at very attractive prices, and structure. In summary, this minor support break is NOT extremely bearish, just a shake of the weak hands. Low volume and high uncertainty keep this market (and BTC) from making progress and I expect these conditions to continue until participants gain more certainty on 8/1 (and exchanges like Coinbase stop scaring people with withdrawal problems). If very attractive supports are reached like the zone mentioned earlier, I will be open to buying again, as long as the rules of my trading plan are met. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
19
Apple: Low volatility, volume and price- where are the bulls at?Volume Apple-0.09% Volume continued falling on Tuesday and Wednesday, -5% on each to 20.8m which is 45% below the 1 month average at 38.5m and 50% below the 6 month average at 40m. This is Bullish IMO as it shows that at these prices holders are not willing to sell their AAPL-0.09% risk at these prices, as they seek higher prices before they offer higher supply, hence volume stays low and the stock trades with a bid bias - hence the gap up at the open today - illustrating the supply & demand disequilibrium caused by low supply side liquidity and maintained order demand. However, volume has contracted significantly every day this week, losing over 20% since the week start, providing a promising environment for apple-0.09% growth, but the stock has struggled to hold onoto any gains, with candles often closing in the lower 25% quartiles of their ranges - indicating the stock isnt necessarily looking to push up yet. IMO the stock requires more new buyers, it isnt a selling problem its a demand side issue. With the SPX0.33% rising, it shows liquidity is increasing in risk assets so im not sure why apple-0.09% isnt receiving some of the new liquidity and posting upside gains. Volatility & Apple-0.09% vs VXAP Correlation We continue to have a bullish view from a vols perspective as implied vols dropped yesterday over 1% to 20.90. Apple-0.09% vol0.00% carries the trend with volume , falling every day this week and now sits at lows from June 2015. Also the correlation between APPLE-0.09% and its Implied volatility index continued to maintain deep into negative territory - at 93% falling marginally from 94% yesterday. This reinforces the bullish volatility signal - as historically, a higher negative relationship sets the best environment for Apple-0.09% growth. However, the correlation dips slightly, as PRICE that is starting to fail the relationship - as when correlation falls price SHOULD rise hence the high negative relationship. However, price is trading flat/lower thus the correlation is becoming more positive (lower vols and lower price = positive corr) Evalutaion Both the falling implied vols and volume , all of which in record setting/ bullish areas provide the perfect environment for growth so as per the last 3 days I am bullish on apple-0.09% and STILL expect a $100 break out to 101/2 this week, though the probability falls significantly, but thrusday is usually the best day for gains, with friday being the worst. These indicators make me especially bullish as the lower volume and vols are occuring whilst apple-0.09% trades close to 100USD, where usually, the psychological level causes volume to spike as the uncertainty causes sellers and buyers to flood the market - Which as a result also cause volatility to spike. Given that we havent see this, apple-0.09% should be comfortable with a price hike and is showing strong signs that this is the case. I feel apple-0.09% needs some upside stimulus at these prices and it will cause a cascaded rally from 100 to 1005+ in a short period of time. We just need to get past this 100 level, which keeps growing its strength every day
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
APPLE 4% ALGO SPIKE? LOWER VOLS & VOLU; HIGHER NEGATIV VOLS CORRAlgo spike 4% to $101.8? At 18:19 BST Apple stock surged from 99. to $101.8 and back again all within a minute. It was Likely to be algo driven OR a data/exchange error - though no news outlets reported either or offered any other speculation. Though $101.8 is the closest near by resistance strong hold for apple, so it would be a weird coincidence for a "data error" to trade to that price - equally as possible none the less. IMO, because there was little volatility after the event and also because Apple is now struggling to break the $100 i think it was probably a data/exchange error. If it was an actual demand induced algo spike, the stock would have experienced signifcant price volatility after the event as much of the markets TP/SL levels would have caused a large wave of stochastic automated buying/selling as positions are closed out. Further, if the spike was real, apple should have been able to trade above $100 easily today; 1. As $101.8 would be a clear bull target level. 2. as the spike would have removed all of the $100TP selling pressure last night - meaning there would be little volume left to continue long squeeze selling today (which annoyingly has been the case). Volume Apple Volume fell significantly on Monday by 40% to 23m vs 39m (1month av.) and 43m (6month av.). In the first half of trading today, volume was also 7% down from yesterdays first half at 11.23m vs 12.0m - signalling today may continue the bullish trend. This is Bullish IMO as it shows that at these prices holders are not willing to sell their AAPL risk at these prices, as they seek higher prices before they offer higher supply, hence volume stays low and the stock trades with a bid bias - hence the gap up at the open today - illustrating the supply & demand disequilibrium caused by low supply side liquidity and maintained order demand. Volatility & Apple vs VXAP Correlation We continue to have a bullish view from a vols perspective as vols dropped yesterday despite an algo driven spike to $101.8 (4%). Apples CBOE VXAP continued to sell off, closing yesterday at 21.64 from 21.73 Friday. Also the correlation between APPLE and its Implied volatility index continued to fall deeper into negative territory - surpassing levels seen in the last bull run to $112 which peaked at 90% (92% to 94%), This reinforces the bullish volatility signal - as historically, a higher negative relationship sets the best environment for Apple price growth.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by QuantumLogicTrading