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EURUSD 29 Jan 2025 W5- Intraday - US Interest Rate / PowellThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 29 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Tariff Discussions Continue: Still the main factor currently that effects the market and supporting USD with Trump insistence to apply Tariffs Plan. Powell Press Conference: Today Rate decision is already priced in but the market is waiting for Powell press conference to give clues on what will be the Fed plan with Trump's recent announcements as on one hand, he has expressed a strong commitment to reducing inflation; on the other, his proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, set to take effect on February 1, 2025, are anticipated to exert upward pressure on prices. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation after BOS 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start. 🔹With price failing to close above Weak INT High, there is a HP that we are going to target the INT Low which will facilitate the Bullish Swing Pullback. 🔹Price is currently mitigating the 4H Demand and we could see some bullish move to facilitate the LTF pullbacks only. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish to facilitate the Daily Bearish Continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Pullback Phase 2️⃣ 🔹Swing structure turned bearish after mitigating the Daily Supply zone. 🔹With the bearish BOS, a pullback is expected, currently INT structure is bearish and mitigating the 4H Demand. 🔹Price currently at the extreme of the Bearish INT structure and there is a HP that the Strong INT High could be taken out in order to facilitate the 15m Bearish Swing Pullback Phase. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set neutral due to the following: US Interest Rate decision and Powell Press Conference. We are currently within the 4H demand and it’s tough to follow the 15m Bearish INT Structure and Short. Not yet Bullish iBOS to indicate that the 15m Swing Pullback is starting.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 30 Jan 2025 W5- Intraday Analysis - ECB Rate / LagardeThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 30 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Federal Reserve's Decision: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, citing stable economic growth and a low unemployment rate. Fed's Outlook: Chair Powell emphasized a cautious approach, indicating no immediate plans to adjust rates and highlighting the need to assess the economic impacts of forthcoming policies from the Trump administration. Presidential Response: President Donald Trump criticized the Fed's decision, attributing ongoing inflation issues to the central bank's policies and pledging to address inflation through measures such as enhancing energy production, deregulation, and trade adjustments. Heavy Economic Reports today: Starting with EUR Unemployment, GDP, ECB Interest Rate / Lagarde Press Conference to US GDP and Core PCE. Overall, the market sentiment reflects a blend of caution and anticipation as investors monitor the interplay between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the administration's fiscal initiatives. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation after BOS 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start. 🔹With price failing to close above Weak INT High, there is a HP that we are going to target the INT Low which will facilitate the Bullish Swing Pullback. 🔹Price is currently mitigating the large 4H Demand zone but failing till now to do something significant (At least a Bullish CHoCH). 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish to target the Strong INT Low to facilitate the 4H Bullish Swing Pullback and the Daily Bearish Continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹Swing is continuing bearish with a new bearish BOS. 🔹After a BOS we expected a pullback which already reached the Swing Premium and mitigated the 15m / 4H supply zones. 🔹No clear INT structure within the Swing but the Fractal is currently bearish indicating the bearish swing pullback could be over and we are currently forming the Swing continuation phase to target the weak Swing Low. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is for price to continue bearish (4H INT low to be broken) but to be cautious that we still within the 4H demand that is not fully mitigated.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 28 Jan 2025 W5- Intraday - US Durable Goods & ConfidenceThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 28 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Tariff Discussions Continue: President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant focused on tariff policies in their recent statements. Bessant's Proposal: Bessant suggested a universal tariff starting at 2.5%, with a gradual monthly increase of 2.5%, potentially reaching up to 20%. Trump's Tariff Plans: President Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on computer chips, pharmaceutical producers, and industries like steel, aluminum, and copper. Trump's Push for Higher Tariffs: Trump expressed a desire for tariffs significantly higher than 2.5%, contradicting Bessant's proposal. This added further uncertainty to the market. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation after BOS 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start. 🔹With price failing to close above Weak INT High, there is a HP that we are going to target the INT Low which will facilitate the Bullish Swing Pullback. 🔹Price is currently mitigating the 4H Demand and we could see some bullish move to facilitate the LTF pullbacks only. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish to facilitate the Daily Bearish Continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Pullback Phase 2️⃣ 🔹Swing structure turned bearish after mitigating the Daily Supply zone. 🔹With the bearish BOS, a pullback is expected during the session today as we are mitigating the 4H Demand zone. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is set to continue bearish to facilitate the 4H Swing pullback and Daily Bearish continuation.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 27 Jan 2025 W5- Intraday - EU Lagarde / US Home SalesThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 27 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Tariffs will remain a key driver of market volatility, heavily influenced by Trump's shifting tone. While the market initially welcomed a "risk-off" sentiment following his announcement of a modest 10% tariff on China—interpreted as avoiding a full-blown trade war—Trump has since shaken markets by imposing a 25% tariff on Colombia. There are also rumors circulating that similar measures could target Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday, February 1. Tariffs are likely to be the primary market mover for the foreseeable future, so it's essential to stay vigilant and mindful of potential rumors. Trump’s unpredictability isn’t going anywhere 😁—adapt accordingly! 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation after BOS 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start. 🔹Currently price at a Daily Supply Zone that can initiate at least INT Structure Pullback and may extend to Swing Pullback to at least Swing EQ (50%)/Daily and Weekly Demand. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is price to initiate a pullback for the Bullish INT structure and then continue bullish from demand to target the Daily INT High/Weekly Liquidity. 🔹With today market open, price created a Bearish CHoCH to initiate the INT Structure Pullback. 🔹More development required on LTFs/Intraday Analysis. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Pullback Phase 2️⃣ 🔹After the Bullish iBOS we expect a Swing Pullback, INT structure turned bearish to facilitate the 15m Swing Pullback. 🔹With the bearish iBOS, a pullback is expected during the session today. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is set to bearish to facilitate the Swing pullback to at least the Swing EQ/4H-Daily demand zone which is well positioned in Swing Discount. I’m looking for: 🔹Shorts from the INT structure Supply Zone positioned within the 4H Supply Zone only if we didn’t mitigate the 4H Demand. 🔹Longs from the 15m Demand within the 4H Demand zone for the 15m Bullish Swing and 4H Bullish INT Structure continuation.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 24 Jan 2025 W4- Intraday Analysis - EU & US PMIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 24 Jan 2025 W4 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Nothing much changed in sentiment since Tramp inauguration, yesterday Trump ease the tone on tariffs which gave optimism in the market (Risk Off) and weakened the dollar across the board. Dovish ECB Policy Expectations: Traders are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut at each of the next four ECB policy meetings. Economic Concerns: Subdued inflationary pressures and concerns over the Eurozone's economic outlook. US Dollar Strength: Dollar appreciates following news that President Trump intends to review tariff policies. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation after BOS 2️⃣ 🔹As expected, price created a bullish BOS as per the Daily/Weekly requirement for a pullback. 🔹Price didn’t mitigate any supply after the BOS so there is a high probability that we will continue up till we reach the 4H or Daily supply to initiate a BOS pullback phase (Can’t be ruled, we always have the expectation that a pullback will start at any time after any break of structure). 🔹Price mitigated the 4H demand within the 4H bullish INT structure and currently targeting the 4H Weak INT high. 3️⃣ 🔹My expectations is set for price to continue bullish till we mitigate a 4H/Daily supply. 🔹Will be following the LTF to follow the expectation of bullish continuation while putting in consideration the probability of a bearish move for the bullish BOS pullback phase that can start anytime. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish / ii Structure Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹After the Bullish BOS, price still holding bullish respecting the Bullish INT Structure. 🔹INT Structure Strong low liquidity swept and price mitigated the 4H demand zone to continue bullish. 🔹** 15m Swing is currently the 4H swing and I started mapping the ii Structure until I can reset my 15m Swing with a bigger price range. 3️⃣ 🔹Currently ii Structure is bullish and we are in continuation phase to target the Weak INT High. 🔹Expectations is that price to continue bullish and to mitigate the 4H/Daily Supply zone to maybe initiate a pullback phase.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 23 Jan 2025 W4- Intraday Analysis - US Jobless ClaimsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 23 Jan 2025 W4 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Nothing much changed in sentiment since Tramp inauguration Dovish ECB Policy Expectations: Traders are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut at each of the next four ECB policy meetings. Economic Concerns: Subdued inflationary pressures and concerns over the Eurozone's economic outlook. US Dollar Strength: Dollar appreciates following news that President Trump intends to review tariff policies. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation after BOS 2️⃣ 🔹As expected, price created a bullish BOS as per the Daily/Weekly requirement for a pullback. 🔹Price didn’t mitigate any supply after the BOS so there is a high probability that we will continue up till we reach the 4H or Daily supply to initiate a BOS pullback phase (Can’t be ruled, we always have the expectation that a pullback will start at any time after any break of structure). 🔹Currently price is within a 4H FLIP zone that caused the BOS. Which could keep price bullish to target the weak INT high. 3️⃣ 🔹My expectations is set for price to continue bullish till we mitigate a 4H/Daily supply. 🔹Will be following the LTF to follow the expectation of bullish continuation while putting in consideration the probability of a bearish move for the bullish BOS pullback phase that can start anytime. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹Price created a bullish BOS. After a BOS we expect a pullback phase. 🔹We didn’t mitigate any supply zone to initiate the Swing Pullback Phase yet so we could continue bullish. 🔹Price is currently within the 4H FLIP zone and at the INT Structure extreme. 🔹The last defined demand zone within the INT structure failed and there is a probability that the INT structure could turn bearish to fulfill the BOS requirement for a Pullback Phase. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is still bullish until we have a confirmed bearish iBOS to initiate the Pullback Phase. 🔹Longs: As the demand failed, I’ll be waiting for a shift in the OF to bullish and demand to start holding to target the Weak INT High. 🔹Shorts: Will be waiting for bearish iBOS for pullback phase.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 22 Jan 2025 W4- Intraday Analysis - ECB Lagarde speechThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 22 Jan 2025 W4 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Dovish ECB Policy Expectations: Traders are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut at each of the next four ECB policy meetings. Economic Concerns: Subdued inflationary pressures and concerns over the Eurozone's economic outlook. US Dollar Strength: Dollar appreciates following news that President Trump intends to review tariff policies. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Pullback Phase (Pro Swing + Counter INT) 🔹At Swing Premium (reached extreme) 2️⃣ 🔹After the Bearish BOS, price pulled back to the Swing EQ (50%) tapping into a Daily and a 4H Supply that caused a Bearish CHoCH and forming a Supply that failed and created a bullish INT Structure. 3️⃣ 🔹As price reached the Bearish Swing Extreme, if we are going to continue bearish, this is the area that I prefer to be short from. Also note that after the Bullish iBOS, price pulled back to the INT Structure EQ (50%) but didn't mitigate the 4H demand and just reacted from the previous INT structure range. 🔹With the current PA, there is a high probability that price will take out the Bearish Swing High to fulfil the Daily/Weekly requirement for a pullback. More LTFs development required for a clear direction. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Pullback Phase (Pro Swing + Counter INT) 🔹At Swing Premium (reached extreme) 2️⃣ 🔹INT Structure turned bearish yesterday after failing to break the Bearish Swing Strong High. 🔹Price pulled back after the Bearish iBOS and swept the liquidity above the Strong INT High. 3️⃣ 🔹As mentioned in the 4H analysis, with the current PA there is a high probability that the Swing High will be broken but still no confirmation and technical is all pointing for bearish moves. 🔹My technical expectations still bearish till we have a Bullish BOS.
by Amr-Sadek
L&T Finance - Strong Support Zone Swing Trade SetupL&T Finance has reached a key support zone around the 140-145 range , which has been tested several times in the past (indicated by the blue arrows). This zone has consistently held up, with strong rebounds, signaling significant buying interest. Support Zone: 140-145 range Current Price: 150.40 Entry Strategy: I’ll be watching for a bullish or green daily candle forming near the support zone. Once that candle is established, I’ll look for a 15-minute candle to break above the high of the daily candle. Once that happens, the entry will be confirmed. If the support holds and we get a bullish daily candle, followed by a 15-minute breakout, this could be a strong setup for a reversal. The volume spike seen here also adds confidence that buyers may be stepping back in at these levels. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk responsibly.
NSE:LTFLong
by gupshupblog
3
FET/USDT 15mNYSE:FET is one of the leading AI projects in the crypto space, earlier this year it saw a meteoric rise in price up to $3.5. Since then price has dropped around 80% to a local low of $0.70, now recently price has grown and broken the daily downtrend rising to a local high of $1.44 +105% from the lows creating a dilemma for traders... From previous price action we know that NYSE:FET is capable of huge moves, it's a fundamentally sound project with a strong narrative behind it. Finding a good entry to buy FET if sidelined or add to a position if already positioned can be tricky so these are my thoughts: - HTF FET has broken the daily downtrend is is looking to reverse. Altcoins have been at the mercy of Bitcoin so it requires BTC to behave too. After an -80% correction a lot of the downside risk has already played out. - LTF we have seen a strong recovery, if you has bought local lows at $0.70 you would have outperformed the entire drawdown of the last 6 months (assuming equal position size). So the feeling of FOMO can start to creep in at these levels. - The chart shows potential points of entry on the LTF, obviously we may continue to drawdown, it's always a possibility but we have seen signs of strength and therefore opportunities to go LONG. - Local range low @ $1.273 is the option with the best return out of the 3. Clearly strong support that was the base for the last local rally. - Current level is an interesting one because it incorporates a LTF diagonal resistance trendline that would be bullish if broken. This combined with a range support line (0.25) could be a good option for a LTF entry. - The final option is the 0.5/ Midpoint entry. This would mean flipping the 15m 200EMA bullish and reclaiming the midpoint making it the safest of the 3 entries but least rewarding, offering +6% return instead of 9% & 13% respectively. With all this in consideration, NYSE:FET is one of the better altcoin options in the markets current state. IMO we still don't have a clear market direction just yet and so being nimble with positions is a must, but it does feel like the worst is over and if that is the case then a position in FET could be positive for a portfolio.
by ProR35
1
Crypto : 1000PEPEUSDT.P ORDER FLOW Entry15m : First Order Flow Mitigated( mandatory ) > Second Order Flow Demand Zone Mitigated LTF(1m) : Liquidity Swept > Candle Confirmation(Bullish) > Entry Note: Whenever 15m order flow doesn’t fully mitigated up to its order block, getting at least one confirmation from the liquidity side ( i.e liquidity sweep) in LTF(1m) will increase your chances of entering the trade. After the liquidity sweep, wait for a candle confirmation before entering with a limit order.
Long
by arjTradingofficial
EURUSD 9 May 2024 W19 - Intraday Analysis - US Jobless ClaimsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 9 May 2024 W19 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Nothing changed since the start of the week and as per Tuesday sentiment, investors are waiting for a catalyst to have a clear policy direction for the upcoming quarter. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bullish Reached Swing EQ INT Structure Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. Nothing much changed since yesterday as we just tapping into a demand zone (FLIP) that may provide some bullish reaction. INT Structure turned Bullish signaling a complex pullback phase with deep pullback that reached the Swing EQ and tapped into the Daily Supply. Currently with INT Structure is Bullish we don't have a solid confirmation that the Swing PB is over and we will continue Bearish. Instead, INT structure could continue Bullish. More Price development required from LTF in order to play the INT Structure PB or the INT structure Bullish continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish Long : Phase B (LP) Short : Phase C (HP) 2. Finally we are barely out from Friday NFP Range and price still ranging with clear direction. With a Bearish iBOS we confirmed the 15m Swing Pullback. Currently price tapped and formed Bullish Sub-Internal Structure that is facilitating the INT Pullback. Not convinced much of Longs as per our position in the HTF (Tapped into Daily Supply), instead will follow the Bearish INT Structure and look for Shorts from 15m Supply that are well positioned within the Swing. 3. 15m/4H Demand zones for possible longs one reached.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 8 May 2024 W19 - Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 8 May 2024 W19 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Nothing changed since the start of the week and as per yesterday sentiment here, investors are waiting for a catalyst to have a clear policy direction for the upcoming quarter. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bullish Reached Swing EQ INT Structure Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. Nothing much changed since yesterday as we just tapping into a demand zone (FLIP) that may provide some bullish reaction. INT Structure turned Bullish signaling a complex pullback phase with deep pullback that reached the Swing EQ and tapped into the Daily Supply. Currently with INT Structure is Bullish we don't have a solid confirmation that the Swing PB is over and we will continue Bearish. Instead, INT structure could continue Bullish. More Price development required from LTF in order to play the INT Structure PB or the INT structure Bullish continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish Long : Phase B (LP) Short : Phase C (HP) 2. Finally we are barely out from Friday NFP Range. With a Bearish iBOS we confirmed the 15m Swing Pullback. Currently price tapped into a 4H Demand which could initiate the INT Structure PB. Bullish CHoCH will be the first sign that the INT PB is starting. Not convinced much of Longs as per our position in the HTF (Tapped into Daily Supply), instead will follow the Bearish INT Structure and look for Shorts from 15m Supply that are well positioned within the Swing. 3. 15m/4H Demand zones for possible longs one reached.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 7 May 2024 W19 - Intraday Analysis - EU Retail SalesThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 7 May 2024 W19 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Today's sentiment for EUR/USD pair is shaped by pivotal occurrences from the previous week. The release of weaker-than-anticipated Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data prompted a decline in the US dollar, lending some buoyancy to the EUR/USD pair. Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell wielded considerable influence. The FOMC opted to maintain the policy interest rate and continue tapering securities holdings. Powell reiterated the Fed's unwavering commitment to achieving their 2% inflation target. Consequently, there's a prevailing bearish sentiment towards the US dollar, keeping the EUR/USD pair comfortably above the 1.0750 threshold. However, the market remains vigilant ahead of this week's data releases. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bullish Reached Swing EQ INT Structure Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. INT Structure turned Bullish signaling a complex pullback phase with deep pullback that reached the Swing EQ and tapped into the Daily Supply. Currently with INT Structure is Bullish we don't have a solid confirmation that the Swing PB is over and we will continue Bearish. Instead, INT structure could continue Bullish. More Price development required from LTF in order to play the INT Structure PB or the INT structure Bullish continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish Long : Phase A2 Short : Phase D 2. Nothing changed since yesterday, price still ranging! Swing failed to continue Bearish and with NFP we created a Bullish BOS which reached the Daily Supply Zone. After a BOS we expect a Pullback. INT structure is Bullish which means we still in Bullish continuation. With the 4H created a Bullish iBOS and requesting a Pullback, i prefer to look for Shorts after a Bearish iBOS. Longs will be ideal for me when we reach the 4H demand zone within the 15m Swing. 3. 15m/4H Demand zones for possible longs one reached.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 6 May 2024 W19 - Intraday Analysis - EU PMIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 6 May 2024 W19 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Nothing changed from Friday, the EUR/USD surged to reach a new high for the week, surpassing recent congestion levels. This uptick followed a significant shortfall in the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data regarding labor and wages. The disappointing figures revived expectations across the market for a quicker pace of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate reductions. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bullish Reached Swing EQ INT Structure Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. INT Structure turned Bullish signaling a complex pullback phase with deep pullback that reached the Swing EQ and tapped into the Daily Supply. Currently with INT Structure is Bullish we don't have a solid confirmation that the Swing PB is over and we will continue Bearish. Instead, INT structure could continue Bullish. More Price development required from LTF in order to play the INT Structure PB or the INT structure Bullish continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish Long : Phase A2 Short : Phase D 2. Swing failed to continue Bearish and with NFP we created a Bullish BOS which reached the Daily Supply Zone. After a BOS we expect a Pullback. INT structure is Bullish which means we still in Bullish continuation. With the 4H created a Bullish iBOS and requesting a Pullback, i prefer to look for Shorts after a Bearish iBOS. Longs will be ideal for me when we reach the 4H demand zone within the 15m Swing. 3. 15m/4H Demand zones for possible longs one reached.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 2 May 2024 W18 - Intraday Analysis - EU CPI / US Jobless This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 2 May 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Market sentiment is mixed following the Federal Reserve meeting and Powell's speech. The US dollar initially strengthened after the Fed, but then weakened as investors focused on the central bank's dovish comments. This could be positive for EURUSD, which climbed after the Fed meeting. However, caution is still warranted as Non-Farm Payroll data, a key US jobs report, is due on Friday, which could impact the dollar and EURUSD again. The following news today will have some volatility before NFP tomorrow: German Mfg PMI Final Eurozone Mfg PMI Final US Trade Balance US Initial Jobless Claims 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. As the INT Structure turned Bearish, it signals that the Swig PB maybe over and we are currently Pro Swing. After the Bearish iBOS we are expecting a PB which already reached the Refined 4H FLIP Zone. Currently the Liquidity above the 4H Supply which makes it not a HP Zone for Shorts unless we have clear Bearish Structure formation on the 15m. I Prefer the Sweep of Liq above the 4H Supply (CHoCH) before Shorts. Also be mindful that the Strong INT High could be run in the situation of a complex Deeper Pullback Phase for the 4H Swing. With FOMC Yesterday and NFP tomorrow, this is the behavior of price due to Investors positioning. Note: Daily is ranging and 4H too 🤷‍♂️ 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish Shorts Phase B (HP) Longs Phase C (LP) 2. With the volatility of yesterday news, price reached the Bearish Swing Extreme. No clear direction as we are back again to the same range we are in since Apr 23. Shorts make sense, but no potential POI / Clear INT Structure to follow. Also with the 4H Liquidity above the 15m Swing High, there is a HP that the 15m Swing will get run. 3. After the Bearish BOS we expected a Pullback, which was initiated after the Bullish iBOS.
by Amr-Sadek
1
EURUSD 1 May 2024 W18 - Intraday Analysis - US FOMC/Powell Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 1 May 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment A day the markets awaits loaded with high impact news events. Starting with US ADP, Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings and ending with Rate Decision and Powell speech. Today's FOMC Statement and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech are eagerly anticipated by the market, as both have the potential to significantly influence the EUR/USD pair. The Dollar Index has advanced as investor focus shifts to these pivotal events. Should the FOMC statement or Powell's comments lean towards a more hawkish stance, indicating a preference for higher interest rates, it could bolster the US dollar and exert downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Conversely, if the statement or remarks lean towards a more dovish stance, suggesting a inclination towards lower interest rates, it could weaken the US dollar and generate some upward movement for the EUR/USD pair. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. No clear Demand zone available to initiate the INT Structure Pullback. Price could continue bearish without Pullback as we are in the Swing Continuation Phase. Expectation is set to continue bearish targeting the Weak Swing Low. 4. With the recent INT Structure turning Bearish confirming the Swing Pullback Phase may had ended, the Swing Bearish Continuation Phase started targeting the Weak Swing Low. Current 4H Supply (FLIP Zone) could provide an opportunity for Shorts after the Bearish iBOS inline with the Bearish Swing and Continuation Phase. Also be mindful that today is loaded with high impact news which will have a high volatility. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish OF Bearish 2. Swing continuing Bearish with Bearish BOS. After a BOS we expect a pullback. There is no HTF Zone that can be potential for the Swing Pullback Phase. Will wait for INT Structure to turn Bullish to look for Longs. Otherwise i prefer Shorts from the 4H Supply as it aligns with the HTF Bearish Phase and targets. 3. No Clear Demand to initiate the Swing Pullback. Waiting for INT Structure formation.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 30 Apr 2024 W18 - Intraday Analysis - EU CPI GDP / US CFThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 30 April 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Sentiment from Monday (April 29th) could carry over to Tuesday, depending on the outcome of Eurozone data releases (CPI, GDP) and US ( Consumer Confidence). A strong Euro today due to positive data might see some continuation. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish Sub-Internal Bullish INT / Swing Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase. With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there. 4. With Sub-INT / OF is holding Bullish, I Still see more upside as long we hold the recent Sub-INT Low (Green Line). A break of the Sub-INT Low, this will confirm that the Pullback Phase maybe is over and we will continue down targeting the INT Low. On the other side if the Sub-INT Structure will stay Bullish, there is a HP we are targeting the mitigation of the Daily Supply. More Price development needed. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bullish Sell: Phase B (HP) Long: Phase C (LP) 2. Swing turned Bearish signaling the probability that the 4H Pullback is maybe over and we may resume the 4H Bearish continuation move. No much change from yesterday, we still ranging within a Bullish INT Structure within a Bearish Swing. Possible Longs from the the current fresh 15m demand but be mindful that we swept the Liquidity below it and the 15m Bearish Swing could continue and run the INT Low. Shorts are currently not my interest till we have another Bearish Swing. 3. 15m Demand within the INT Structure as it could provide a Low Probability Long Phase C trade.
by Amr-Sadek
2
EURUSD 29 Apr 2024 W18 - Intraday Analysis - GER CPIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 29 April 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment No major economic data releases are scheduled for Monday, limiting significant movement in the pair. However, the intervention in JPY leading to a USD weakness which will provide support for EURUSD some Bullish stand. Also note that the current week includes EU CPI and US FOMC / NFP which most probably result in a volatility and investors are positioning for that upcoming news events. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish Sub-Internal Bullish INT / Swing Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase. With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there. 4. With Sub-INT / OF is holding Bullish, I Still see more upside as long we hold the recent Sub-INT Low (Green Line). A break of the Sub-INT Low, this will confirm that the Pullback Phase maybe is over and we will continue down targeting the INT Low. On the other side if the Sub-INT Structure will stay Bullish, there is a HP we are targeting the mitigation of the Daily Supply. More Price development from Intraday analysis to confirm a scenario. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bullish Sell: Phase B (HP) Long: Phase C (LP) 2. Swing turned Bearish signaling the probability that the 4H Pullback is maybe over and we may resume the 4H Bearish continuation move. Currently price at a 15m/4H Supply zones that could initiate the Swing continuation phase. Possible Phase B Shorts but be mindful that the 4H INT Structure still Bullish and we may see another deep Swing pullback which will reflect on a Bullish 15m Swing BOS. 3. 15m Demand within the INT Structure as it could provide a Low Probability Long Phase C trade.
by Amr-Sadek
1
EURUSD 26 Apr 2024 W17 - Intraday Analysis - US PCE Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 26 Apr 2024 W17 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15 Chart Analysis Market Sentiment PCE as the next hurdle: The release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is the key event today. This data is a crucial inflation indicator for the US Federal Reserve. Potential scenarios based on PCE: Higher than expected PCE: This suggests stronger US inflation, which could bolster the USD. Investors might anticipate a more hawkish stance from the Fed (raising interest rates), making the USD a more attractive investment. This scenario could weaken the Euro. Lower than expected PCE: This suggests cooling inflation, potentially weakening the USD. If inflation is under control, the Fed might be less aggressive with rate hikes, making the USD less appealing. This scenario could strengthen the Euro. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish INT / Swing Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase. With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there. Expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback. 4. With Sub-INT / OF is holding Bullish, I Still see more upside as long we hold the recent Sub-INT Low (Green Line). Current Sub-INT structure doesn't have any clear Demand and we are currently within the Supply Zone formed during the news yesterday and with PCE today, i'd expect high volatility similar to yesterday. Today for me is a day to analyze and not to trade 😃 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bearish 2. With the Swing containing Bullish and Swing Low did hold the volatility yesterday, I couldn't find a clear POI within the Swing to continue Bullish except the Demand down. Expectations with the current PA is that the Weak Swing High will get run. But be mindful that today US PCE news will have the market ranging till the news. As indicated in the 4H analysis, Today is the day where you analyze and don't trade as more clear setups will be available next week. 3. 15m Demand for possible longs if we are continuing Bullish.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 25 Apr 2024 W17 - Intraday Analysis - US GDP / JoblessThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 25 Apr 2024 W17 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Euro's recent strength: The Euro has gained some ground against the USD lately, fueled by weaker US data and supporting the Pullback Phase after the YTD lows. US data as a game changer: The upcoming US GDP and Jobless Claims reports are the main event. Strong numbers could significantly strengthen the USD, reversing the Euro's recent gains. Cautious market: Investors are holding back until the data is released, creating a wait-and-see sentiment that could limit the Euro's upside potential specially with US PCE Inflation Report tomorrow. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish INT / Swing Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase. With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there. Expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback. 4. As price reached the 4H Supply with Bullish OF, price showed a bearish reaction as expected to facilitate a Pullback to recent Demand. Price tapped into the 4H Demand and currently in the momentum to create a new high. As indicated previously, the Liquidity on the left above the 4H Supply and possibly the Swing EQ are the targets. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish Long: Phase A Short: Phase C (Require Bearish iBOS) 2. Price mitigation to the 4H Demand. 3. Price turned bullish after mitigating the 4H Demand turning INT structure to Bullish. With INT structure is Bullish, expectations are set that we are going to target the Weak Swing High. But be mindful that we are still within the 4H Supply Zone that is partially mitigated yesterday so Phase A2 after the BOS will be tough. But Phase C will be applicable if we have a Bearish iBOS.
by Amr-Sadek
1
EURUSD 24 Apr 2024 W17 - Intraday Analysis - US Durable GoodsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 24 Apr 2024 W17 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment EURUSD is slightly bullish: The Euro is currently showing some strength, having gained yesterday strong Euro data and on weaker US data. Market is cautious: Upcoming US inflation data is keeping investors cautious, potentially limiting gains for the Euro. US Durable Goods will be the watch today for volatility. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish INT / Swing Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Currently price within the Weekly Demand and approaching a 4H/Daily demand zone. As expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there. Expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback. 4. 4H Supply zone for possible reactions. But note that it's not well positioned within the 4H Swing (In Discount) so there is a probability that it will get run till the Swing EQ/Daily Supply zone. Bearish CHoCH will be the first sign fora bearish reaction from the 4H Supply. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish Long: Phase A2 Short: Phase C (Require Bearish iBOS) 2. Price had created another Bullish Swing BOS aligning with the HTF requirements for a Pullback. Price had reached 4H Supply zone which could initiate the Swing Pullback Phase. For a PB phase to start we need a Bearish iBOS. 3. Current INT Low is the 4H Fractal CHoCH
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 23 Apr 2024 W17 - Intraday Analysis - EU/US PMI Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 23 Apr 2024 W17 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Today's EUR/USD Forex market is going to be influenced by big economic news. This includes updates on the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for both the Eurozone and the USA. Right now, the EUR/USD pair is ranging as we get ready for today PMI updates. Both the US and Europe will be releasing their PMI numbers today. These PMI numbers tell us a lot about how well the economy is doing and can really impact the EUR/USD. If the numbers come in higher than expected, it's likely good news for the currency, but if they're lower than expected, it could mean trouble for the currency. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish INT / Swing Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Currently price within the Weekly Demand and approaching a 4H/Daily demand zone. With the INT Structure Pullback Phase initiated after the Bullish CHoCH, Price is ranging within the Fractal High/Low. No clear direction and price is ranging between Weak Supply / Demand but expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H INT and Swing Pullback Phases. 4. 4H Supply zone for possible reactions. But note that it's not well positioned within the 4H Swing (In Discount) so there is a probability that it will get run till the Swing EQ/Daily Supply zone. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish Swing Continuation Phase 2. Price is ranging within the Bullish 15m Swing with INT structure is shifting between Bullish/Bearish. This is clear that we have a complex INT Structure which shows uncertainty of clear direction. 3. With the current INT Structure is Bullish, Expectations is set to continue Bullish and run the Weak INT High to target the Weak Swing High as long the INT Strong Low holds.
by Amr-Sadek
1