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EURUSD 20 Nov 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 20 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Bullish Swing continuation happened as expected and we created a Bullish BOS. After a BOS we are expecting a pullback and first sign will be a CHoCH. We did a CHoCH but it was only a Sweep of Liquidity and even the 15m didn't close below the Structure. 3. After reaching the Daily/4H Supply, price started to show some reaction. The CHoCH that happened just confirmed the INT High and it was only Sweep of Liquidity due to the aggressive bullish move. Currently we have a Bullish iBOS and again we are expecting a Pullback which could start from the current 4H Supply or i prefer to Sweep the Liquidity above the Weekly supply and we will be starting a nice pullback to the 4H Swing and it could evolve to a Weekly / Daily bearish continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. After a BOS we expect a pullback. The first sign will be a CHoCH which price did but it created instead a bullish INT Structure. So the bearish iBOS will be a sign that the pullback is starting. We are mitigating the 4H and Daily Supply zones and there is high probability that we will take these zones out as of the Weekly and Daily Liquidity required. Playing the pullback will be after the bearish iBOS and be mindful that the pullbacks in nature is rough ride. 3. The most probable demand zones within the new 15m Swing is the Extreme and the one above as both are below EQ (In Discount)
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 17 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis - EUR CPI DayThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 17 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Bullish Swing continuation happened as expected and we created a Bullish BOS. After a BOS we are expecting a pullback and first sign will be a CHoCH. We just formed IMO 1 demand zone within the Swing that it's also a FLIP to the supply formed. So most probably if we reached that level we will have potential longs. 3. After reaching the Daily/4H Supply, price started to show some reaction. Yesterday the CHoCH was below the 4H Demand (FLIP) down, which is far away for price to reach to indicate that the 4H is starting a pullback. Put price yesterday with US news created a new high and for that the CHoCh is moved to the upside. If price did the CHoCH today and hold the supply formed that then there will be a better probability that that pullback is starting. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. Price did another Bullish BOS yesterday with US news. This means that in order for price to start the Swing pullback on the 4H, we want to see a break of the Swing Low in order to have a Bearish Structure on the 15m and the 4H will have the CHoCH which is an indication for the pullback. Buys makes sense because the 15m Swing in still bullish but the HTF are looking for a pullback so there is more probability we will have this pullback soon. 3. There are no unmitigated POIs in this Bullish Swing for longs. So the ChoCH on the 4H idea and the current 15m Swing low being near is adding for me a probability that we will take out the 15m Swing Low / 4H CHoCH to initiate the pullback. Most probably Monday will be interesting to see the setup. Have all a nice weekend.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 16 Nov 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 15 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Bullish Swing continuation happened as expected and we created a Bullish BOS. After a BOS we are expecting a pullback and first sign will be a CHoCH. Currently the CHoCH is far away and i'm expecting price to create a higher CHoCH to initiate a sign that the pullback maybe starting. We just formed IMO 1 demand zone within the Swing that it's also a FLIP to the supply formed. So most probably if we reached that level we will have potential longs. 3. After reaching the Daily/4H Supply, price started to show some reaction. Still there is no Fractal CHoCH to indicate that may be the Pullback is starting. So we may have another push to the upside to mitigate the 4H Supply up before we start the Swing Pullback. If price didn't create a new high, then we can look on the LTF to guide us for potential Pullback from the current Daily Zone. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bearish 2. After a BOS we expect a pullback, with the Bearish iBOS, we confirmed 15m Swing High and the start of the Pullback. Currently price in a series of bearish structures to facilitate the 15m Swing Pullback. Following that bearish structure till we reach the Swing EQ or the INT Structure turns bullish to confirm that the pullback is over and we are in the Bullish Swing Continuation. 3. Potential Supply zone for Shorts if we are continuing the Swing Pullback.
by Amr-Sadek
URUSD 15 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis - US PPI DayThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 15 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m Before the analysis. i want to note that as price moved a lot yesterday it becomes difficult to have a proper trade as the momentum is so bullish, can't long the highs or trying to follow the continuation of that volatility as you want to wait for price to pullback to proper and well defined POI's. On the other hand trying to play a pullback against this Bullish move will be rough and you need to have expectation that you could get caught several times trying to pick a high before the actual pullback. Overall i'll be very cautious this week till we have a proper structure at least on the 15m to play accordingly. So lets start the analysis! 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Bullish Swing continuation happened as expected and we created a Bullish BOS. After a BOS we are expecting a pullback and first sign will be a CHoCH. Currently the CHoCH is far away and i'm expecting price to create a higher CHoCH to initiate a sign that the pullback maybe starting. We just formed IMO 1 demand zone within the Swing that it's also a FLIP to the supply formed. So most probably if we reached that level we will have potential longs. 3. Price had fully mitigated a 4H supply within the Daily Supply zone. My expectation is if a pullback will start, there is a high probability that we can get this pullback from this zone. But be mindful that price is so bullish and pullbacks will be a rough ride. Will let the LTF (15m) guide me. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. Swing structure continuing bullish and we managed to create another Bullish BOS yesterday with CPI news as expected. After a BOS we are expecting a pullback and first sign will be a CHoCH. Which we already did and we confirmed INT High currently. If price wants to do a pullback i prefer to have the INT structure turning bearish first and then we can look for Shorts in the pullback phase. Currently price had fully mitigated a 4H Supply within a daily supply zone. So, a bearish INT Structure will be a good sign that the pullback is starting. Just be mindful that price is so bullish and pullbacks will be a rough ride. 3. Possible demand zones for longs when we reach that levels
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 14 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis - EUR ZEW+GDP - USD CPI DayThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 14 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m Before the analysis today, i want to mention that as per my analysis yesterday i was not interested in Shorting EURUSD, Instead i wanted to go long for the following reasons: We are in Pullback Phase on the daily. 4H Swing is Bullish and we may have finished the Swing Pullback and we are in the Swing continuation. 15m Swing is still bullish for me, so better to look for buys when price reaches some low POIs within the 15m Swing. As this is the CPI week for USD and market is waiting for this news. If the forecasts are showing lower numbers that means USD will be weak and there is a chance that EURUSD will run up. So if i can position myself with the structure and the anticipation of News prior to news day, and if news comes in my favor; i'll be riding a nice run. If not, then nothing much to lose. So i managed yesterday to position my self in and Long entry at 1.0673 based on the above knowing that i'm against the current INT Structure but in anticipation of maybe if price can hold the up side till news and news comes in my favor i can be holding a nice move. Current screenshot from my trade. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish OF Bullish 2. After a BOS we expect a pullback, As we did a CHoCH on the 4H and iBOS on the 15m the pullback started and tapped into a 4H Demand Zone. Price had swept the Liq below the 4H zone and we could be now targeting the previous high formed. Price is tapped into the 4H Supply zone and there is a probability of bearish move from there. But keep in mind that maybe the 4H Swing pullback is over and we are currently in Swing continuation. Will let the LTF (15m) guide me for the move. 3. 4H Demand zone could hold the price to continue up after sweeping liquidity on the left. 15m Chart Analysis 1. S wing Bullish Internal Bearish INT INT Bullish 2. INT Structure is bearish and we reached the last part of the the supply zone on the left that was formed from the bearish iBOS. Also after tapping into the 4H Supply, price reacted and formed bearish IN INT Structure but managed after to recover nicely which means that we still have a room to the upside. What i'm looking for is to have a break of the current Strong Bullish INT High in order for us to continue up. Failure to do so, will result in a deep push to the down side containing that INT Structure bearish move and maybe a deep pullback on the 4H within the bullish 4H Swing Structure. 3. The last unmitigated 15m Demand in this INT INT Structure to hold for possible continuation to the upside if we are going up.
by Amr-Sadek
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EURUSD 13 Nov 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 13 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish OF Bearish 2. After a BOS we expect a pullback, As we did a CHoCH on the 4H and iBOS on the 15m the pullback started and tapped into a 4H Demand Zone. Price had swept the Liq below the 4H zone and we could be now targeting the previous high formed. Failure to break the previous high will put us in a deeper pullback within the 4H Bullish structure. Always will let the LTF (15m) to guide me. 3. 4H Demand zone could hold the price to continue up after sweeping liquidity on the left. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bearish 2. Price is in a series of unclear INT structures moving from bearish to bullish to bearish to bullish to bearish which is a clear indication of indecision and ranging. Recent structure is bearish so most probably we will have the selling pressure from the 4H Supply zone and most of the 15m zones are mitigated there. I'll be on the sideline until we turn INT bullish (iBOS) then will be looking to play the longs again. Shorts are not currently in my plan as 4H Swing and Daily OF are both still bullish, so will not play against. 3. 15m Demand is mitigated and most probably the INT low will be taken as we are in a bearish INT Structure.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 9 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis - Powell Speaks 2nd DayThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 9 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. After a BOS we expect a pullback, As we did a CHoCH on the 4H and iBOS on the 15m the pullback started and tapped into a 4H Demand Zone. Price tapped into 4H Demand and bounced creating a Bullish CHoCH and forming a fresh Demand zone that could hold price for continuation up to the 4H Supply / Swing High. 3. 4H Demand zone could hold the price to continue up after sweeping liquidity on the left. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. After the 15m BOS we expect a pullback. Confirmation that the pullback is starting when we have the bearish iBOS. INT turned bearish confirming Swing High and the pullback started. After which we got a bullish iBOS which indicated that the pullback is over but we broken the strong low yesterday and price failed to continue down and we created again a Bullish iBOS. This behavior ob Bullish Bearish-Bullish is solid bullish indication and will keep me in the bullish side of EURUSD to target the Swing High or at least the 4H Supply formed when we started the pullback. 3. 15m Demand for possible longs as long the Strong INT low will hold.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 8 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis - Powell Speaks This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 8 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. After a BOS we expect a pullback, As we did a CHoCH on the 4H and iBOS on the 15m the pullback started and tapped into a 4H Demand Zone. Expectations that as long this demand zone holds and the 15m OF stay bullish we can resume the bullish move and target the INT High. The only concern that we didn't pullback to the 50% of the Swing which is something to pay attention to as we could visit the Swing 50% before we continue up. 3. 4H Demand zone could hold the price to continue up after sweeping liquidity on the left. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. After the 15m BOS we expect a pullback. Confirmation that the pullback is starting when we have the bearish iBOS. INT turned bearish confirming Swing High and the pullback is starting. Price taped into the 4H Demand and created a bullish iBOS which indicate that the 15m Swing pullback is finished and we will continue the bullish move targeting the Swing High. 3. 4H Demand zone which includes 15m Demand that can provide potential buys to continue bullish. 4. 4H Demand zone which includes 15m Demand zones at the 15m Swing extreme that can provide potential buys to continue bullish.
by Amr-Sadek
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EURUSD 7 Nov 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 7 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. As expected, price continued bullish and did a bullish BOS after sweeping the Liq from the previous Swing lows. After a BOS we expect a pullback, but be mindful that all TFs are bullish in Structure or OF so most probably that bullishness will continue. As we did a CHoCH on the 4H and iBOS on the 15m we can expect the pullback is starting after the BOS. 3. 4H Demand zone could hold the price to continue up after sweeping liquidity on the left. 15 Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bearish 2. After the 15m BOS we expect a pullback. Confirmation that the pullback is starting when we have the bearish iBOS. INT turned bearish confirming Swing High and the pullback is starting. expectation is that the pullback will continue to the 4H POIs and from there we can expect a change in the bearish OF and the INT will change to bullish. 3. 4H Demand zone which includes 15m Demand that can provide potential buys to continue bullish. 4. 4H Demand zone which includes 15m Demand zones at the 15m Swing extreme that can provide potential buys to continue bullish.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 6 Nov 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 6 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Bullish Swing Bullish INT 2. As expected, price continued bullish and did a bullish BOS after sweeping the Liq from the previous Swing lows. After a BOS we expect a pullback, but be mindful that all TFs are bullish in Structure or OF so most probably that bullishness will continue. Will be looking for pullback to start once we tap into the Weekly/ 4H Supply zones that is price is approaching currently. Will wait for LTFs to guide for maybe the Swing pullback is starting. 3. 4H Demand zone could hold the price to continue up after sweeping liquidity on the left. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. After the 15m BOS we expect a pullback. Confirmation that the pullback is starting when we have the bearish iBOS. INT still bullish so we can continue longs but be mindful that the 15m Swing pullback could start at any time. 3. 4H Demand zone which includes 15m Demand zones at the 15m Swing extreme that can provide potential buys to continue bullish.
by Amr-Sadek
29/08/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $26824.0 Last weeks low: $26045.0 Midpoint: $25266.0 The weekly outlook starts on Tuesday this week due to the bank holiday. Despite a strong decline 2 weeks ago price has stabilised into a much tighter spread, almost like a sinewave across the midpoint. Because of this for me personally there is no clear near term direction, however the longer term direction would seem to be bearish thinks to that new lower high after the pullback. We'll know for sure once a new lower high is posted. If that happens, I would expect most of this years progress to be retraced back down towards the 19k area by the end of the year/Q1 2024. For now there is not a lot to do as LTF chop is very difficult to navigate currently.
by ProR35
CPI (June)CPI YoY: Forecast: 3.1% Previous: 4.0% Actual: ? With CPI on the very near horizon, here are my thoughts on what Bitcoin could do in terms of price action: Bullish scenario - We all know that CPI tends to be a volatile event with aggressive whipsaws in price in both directions irrespective of the outcome. Therefore there is an opportunity to capitalise on the frantic LTF price action. For the bulls A good place to enter is the local range low if we see a reclaim after a demand zone sweep. I think this is fairly likely and ideally we see price move to the downside first upon the data release as in general, THE FIRST MOVE IS THE WRONG MOVE... following this initial move to the downside a reclaim would be primed for local highs in my opinion. If there is no reclaim then unfortunately there really isn't much support on the way down as BTC would seek to fill the FVG at 27K. A reaction off this level will leave BTC in a good place to attack 32.5k, reinforced with the ETF narrative and decision coming not too far down the line. Bearish scenario - As was suggested previously, the first move is wrong, therefore the second move is the true move and for the bears it's the opposite to the bulls. If we see price move to the upside upon data release, I would like to see a SFP of the local range highs before entering short with the range midpoint as first target, then range low, then FVG as final target. If that LTF range high holds after being broken, I would like to see a strong wick up into 32.5K resistance and a reaction off this level to the downside and supply liquidity has been taken. Any slow grind up into this level would have me concerned as to BTC printing a swing fail and not just blasting through after consolidating. If that does play out then I would re-evaluate and stay in cash while doing so. Reminder: First move is the wrong move. CPI is usually very volatile and therefor risky. It's easy to FOMO into random positions as a gamble, the market usually wins in those positions.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
GBPJPY 15M 02/05/2023 Currently, on the 15-minute timeframe, we are in a bearish trend formed by two changes in structure. Therefore, we are currently in a bearish range that goes from 171.604 to 169.952, with the latter being the liquidity point of the current bearish range. We have a demand zone in the area of 171.559 to 171.382, and the second zone is between 172.328 and 172.162. We could expect a reaction in both zones, provided we observe how the price orders approach these areas. Alternatively, we could wait for these ranges to be liquidated and broken to establish a new bullish trend and liquidate the liquidity points of the previously established ranges.
Short
by mdr300896
GBPJPY 1H 02/05/2023 Currently, on the one-hour timeframe, we are in a bullish range that extends from 168.713 to 172.094, with the latter being the liquidity point of the current range. We can look for a bullish reaction once the price reaches our potential area of interest between 169.387 and 168.729. Alternatively, if the price shows a marked downward movement, we could look for reactions to the upside at the second area of interest, which is between 167.368 and 166.431. However, if it reaches this zone with a double structure break, we could expect that the zone would be liquidated.
Long
by mdr300896
GBPJPY 4H 02/05/2023 Currently, in the 4-hour timeframe, we are in an uptrend range ranging from 165.422 to 172.328, with the latter being the liquidity point of the current range. We can also see that the price has left us two demand zones of interest in the areas of 167.388 to 166.431 and another from 165.991 to 165.648. When the price touches these areas, we can look for a reaction in favor of the main trend as long as we see how the price reached these zones. Alternatively, we can decrease the timeframe to follow the ranges that are being created in favor of the trend.
Long
by mdr300896
GBPJPY 1D 02/05/2023Currently, on the daily timeframe, we are in a bullish range that extends from 165.422 to 172.328, with the latter being the liquidity point of the current range. We can also observe that the price has left an unmitigated zone between 167.341 and 166.431, where we can expect a bullish reaction. Therefore, we can wait for the price to reach this zone to anticipate a possible reaction in favor of the trend, or alternatively, we can go down to lower timeframes to see what new ranges in favor of the trend are forming and can be traded.
Long
by mdr300896
EURUSD 15M 28/04/2023Currently, in the 15-minute timeframe, we are in an uptrend range that extends from 1.10158 to 1.09626, with the former being the liquidity point of the range. We have a demand zone at 1.09850. Personally, I would like to see a double structure breakout to the upside before considering a long position, as a single breakout could indicate a re-distribution, making the marked zone more likely to be liquidated. We must wait and see the price reaction or if the 2-hour range is broken with a strong candle.
Long
by mdr300896
EURUSD 2H 28/04/203 Currently, in the two-hour timeframe, we are in an uptrend ranging from 1.09659 to 1.10670, with the latter being the liquidity point of the range. Depending on how the price moves within our potential demand areas, we could consider two zones from a non-mitigated price perspective, which are 1.09865 to 1.09338. The price is currently mitigating the first of these zones, so we could expect a bullish reaction to enter a possible trade or descend to lower timeframes to follow the operable ranges in favor of the trend.
Long
by mdr300896
EURUSD 4H 28/04/2023 Currently, in the 4-hour timeframe, we are in an uptrend range that extends from 1.08960 to 1.10758, with the latter being the current range liquidity point. Following the structure and the ranges that have been created, we can identify two areas of interest: 1.09171 and 1.08571. These are the zones in which we can search for reactions to position ourselves in the bullish movement or alternatively, we could descend to lower timeframes to follow the new bullish ranges that are forming in favor of the trend.
Long
by mdr300896
USDJPY 1H 26/04/2023Currently, on the 1-hour timeframe, we are in a bearish range that goes from 133.94 to 133.01. We can also see that the structure has broken down multiple times, mitigating the larger demand zones. Therefore, we could expect two possibilities: firstly, the price could react to one of the marked gray demand zones, or alternatively, it could break the structure upwards without a pullback. This would signal a possible redistribution, and we could look for bearish ranges in lower timeframes to continue the established movement.
Short
by mdr300896
XAUUSD 26/04/2023Currently, on the 15-minute timeframe chart, we are within a bullish range that ranges from 2009 to 1991, with the former being the liquidity point of the range. Therefore, we could expect a bullish reaction in the zone ranging from 1998 to 1996. As long as the price does not close below this zone with a bearish candle, we can say that the zone is being absorbed in lower timeframes, and we can move down to lower timeframes to position ourselves in bullish ranges.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by mdr300896