Do the LAfter the Second World War, with the advance of modernism, humanity entered in a phase that I like to call "Say nice things, and should be fine".
Even politics stopped being a pragmatic process and started to be more like sports crowds mixed with cheating feelings.
We are still advancing into this delusional process of disconnection from reality. People are not voting for the best policies, they are voting because their chosen politician says nice things.
I often think about how would it be, if possible, to put one 30-year-old person from 1920 to talk to one 30 from 2022. IMO it would be the closest thing to Order and Chaos.
In 1920, the order was in the individuals and the chaos in the environment, that is why they created, improved, and laboured their surroundings to improve their lives.
In 2022, the chaos is inside the individuals and order must come from the environment, that is why we see depression, mental confusion and mass hysteria.
My brief introduction will base my argument here.
In Brazil, the people had two choices:
1 - a man who has no manners, who is not full of class, and who hasn't an erudite way of saying things. But this man is also, honest, pragmatic and economically results-driven.
2 - a man who is known for his rhetoric skills. Even his mate said that he is a "Serpent Enchanter". He cries he shouts, he poses himself as the underdog's leader. But this man is also a proven corrupt politician, able to create all sorts of schemes to buy out all other politicians and steal a lot of money, I mean a lot.
P.s: My two descriptions may be affected by bias, but I believe they are not too far from reality.
Now, in a pragmatic world, where the results and actions are what matters, where chaos is in the environment, people could not care less about what the leader says, as long as he/she is able to improve their overall life and wealth.
In opposition, in a world where chaos is inside the people, results are not the primary value, but soft words, illusions, utopia and good lies are the goal. People could not care less about how much money the leader stole or how much of their freedom is lost, as long as he says the "right" thing, everything is fine.
Brazil, recently made a choice, the second option. Personally, I am not surprised at all. Throughout my readings, for a long time, I have learned. I know we live in 2022, and I know that our society is enchanted by nice words and not results.
Two days ago, a 2022 person, attacked me in one of my bearish posts about the Brazilian economy. He argued that I was wrong and that everything is fine. Yesterday, the "elected" president said something about the economy and the stocks instantly crashed. For that guy, everything is fine, as long as the "elected" president says nice things. He does not care if the same "elected" president, who is not the president yet and only will be in 2 months' time, has the power of crashing the whole stocks index of the country with a few words, but that is too much a reality for him.
Lula
EWZ: Viking is back in townI've been working for 5 hours to estimate the trend turns for the next six months. To gain the knowledge to do those five hours are countless.
Now, it will not be 100 % accurate in timing. I still have a lot of cycle work to be completed to fine-tune. But it will be quite accurate as I have gone back in time and checked out what EWZ has done in the past. And since the past tells us about the future as history repeats, confidence level is high. Please allow a day or two on each side of the green bars.
Price is a different story. I have no clue how to deal with that. But its better to know when price can turn than how high it can go, if you catch my drift?
PBR is correlated to oil prices, but that's not all...PBR is correlated to oil prices, but that's not all. Out of a selection of other oil majors, PBR underperforms significantly when the starting month of August 2011 is chosen, a date I arbitrarily chose due to launch of a new industrial policy in Brasil (a proxy of changing economic policy). Note, however, work done by my friend, Raphael Geraldelli (related ideas), showing a much closer correlation of PBR to oil prices in a more recent period (). The takeaway here is that although PBR is correlated to oil prices, internal company issues and Brazilian political economy played an important historical role in the stock's price and I believe it will continue to do so moving foreword.