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Lumberfutures

Will Lumber Futures Shore Up the Stock Market Rally?Traders: Track a September contract breakout above 494.5. A decisive close above that level sets a rough target of 600 (shelf of former highs from last year). I’ll pass since I don’t trade lumber. (I like the bullish divergence forming on the 14-day RSI, though.) Whether you trade the futures contract or not, a rally for lumber is a rally for homebuilders and the broader stock market. Stay tuned for further bull market confirmation from the commodity space.
PEPPERSTONE:LUMBERLong
by USDSZL
Is the selloff over?We wouldn’t blame you if you mistook the lumber price chart with a cryptocurrency. Down more than 70% from its peak in May 2021, lumber’s had astonishing volatility over the past few years. On a longer-term chart, the 460 handle represents a very long-term support/resistance level. With current Lumber prices just shy of this major support level of 460, could we see a breakout higher? Previous 2 attempts to break this level were rejected sharply and a huge rally ensued. Additionally, current RSI readings indicate oversold levels which have been useful in picking the past few bottoms. Overall, we think that lumber could be primed for a move up as it edges closer to the major long-term support level. Entry at 475, stops at 435. Target at 630. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
LLong
by inspirante
LBS / Lumber Futures potential long trade incomingMy chart idea illustrates a confluence of fundamental and technical analysis which leads me to believe a long trade in the Lumber futures market may getting close. On the fundamental side: - We have seen Commercial buyers become net long for a whole month, last time this happened was mid 2020 and this then led to a ~130% price rise over 2 months when the price went from roughly $350 up to $820, albeit it was a bumpy ride with numerous gaps up and down along the way. This recent commercial buying activity is shown with the blue above the zero line in the COT report indicator. On the technical side: - There is clear bullish divergence on the daily chart between price and the RSI. Key technical levels to watch: - Volume profile going back almost 1yr (as much as I could fit onto daily chart) shows the biggest volume cluster / Point of Control sits around $620, so price needs to break above this and hold the level to confirm break of down trend. - Coincidently the above mentioned level measures up almost precisely ($618) with a Fibonacci level when using the recent double top as anchor points. - When drawing a simple trend resistance line from the recent high in march and down to current price then you can see that this trend has not been broken yet, however the line recently intersected $620 level. If price breaks the trend then the $620 level shouldn't be far off. - Lastly on the weekly chart price is just touching oversold levels in the RSI. Historically Lumber hasn't prolonged periods at this level, it typically touches or breaks the level and reverses back within a few weeks. In summary it looks like ~$620 is a key level that needs to be broken above and if it can hold that level until weeks end then I'd be looking to position a long entry. The Lumber futures market does offer big reward when it moves however it is very illiquid with tendency to price gap once it starts trending so caution needs to be exercised!
LLong
by gary_trades
What goes up must come down. Lumber 101Whenever I open up a chart of any asset I like to look at the big picture first pulling up the oldest chart I can find. With Lumber chart I could instantly recognise a pattern called diagonal. I labelled it a Supercyclic wave as it has taken nearly 48 years to complete. After the competition of this pattern usually you can expect a bear market as a correction. Correction takes place both in time and price. In this case of lumbar we had a very quick correction of 73.45% in price as a first leg in May 2021 only lasting 3 months. Now i think that a Bull market that lasted 48 years corrected only in 3 months and the correction has finished as we are already up 190% from August 2021 lows, does not seem very convincing. So I expect the price to reverse close to ATH again and keep moving up and down like a kangaroo for a long time. So far it's looking like a Zigzag pattern. Am going to have 3 attempts as a short with proper risk management. The Trade Short at 1200 Stop Loss - 1311 TP 1 - 843 TP2 - 618 This is not a financial advice. I am a degenerated gambler so wish me luck.
LShort
by UnknownUnicorn10209036
2
Are Commodity Prices Going Up? Lumber, Cash Crops, And Iron OreSome interesting factors are currently affecting commodity prices. Supply chain bottlenecks, unpredictable demand from economies reopening, geo-political tensions, climate change policies are just a few examples. I find it helpful to review the state of the commodities market periodically. In this article, we will examine Lumber, Cash Crops, and Iron Ore. Commodity prices: Lumber Lumber Mills have done their best to increase timber supply in 2021, with production hitting a 13-year high to meet the unpredicted demand from new house builds and renovations. After reaching a peak of over US $1,600 per thousand board feet in May this year, Chicago Lumber Futures have retraced to US ~$640 per thousand board feet as of early November. It could be said that the psychological level of US $600 is very supportive of this commodity. November 2021, and January and March 2022 Future prices are also trading above this level. Speculation is rife that Lumber is due for another price run-up, with Sawmills cutting production to counter the gluttonous output earlier in the year. One indicator supporting this theory is Chicago Lumber Futures increasing by just-under ~40% since plateauing in August, at one point hitting US $820 in mid-October. Commodity prices: Cash Crops Corn and many other grain Futures are currently trading at premiums or multi-year highs, including Wheat and Oats. As of writing, Corn, Wheat, and Oats are trading at 555 USd/Bu, 781 USd/Bu, 716 USd/Bu, respectively. Several factors have led to inflation in grain prices. For one, we can thank (or curse) the high cost of crude oil. Due to WTI and Brent trading US ~$80 per barrel, demand for ethanol has been pushed to the extreme. It is important to note, that in the US, Ethanol is produced predominantly by fermenting Corn (25% of the Corn grown in the US is used for ethanol production). Kluis Commodity Advisors does not believe the prices of grains is sustainable, even in the short term. The Advisors go so far as to suggest that farmers should be hitting the sell button right now to make the most of the grain rally. Butting up against this prediction are forecasts for a continuation of unfavourably dry weather, which have already put the supply of Cash Crops, including Wheat and Oats, in a precarious position. Commodity prices: Iron Ore From mid-September until the end of October, Iron Ore appeared to have found a safe space above US $100. Now, after a steep decline beginning October 27, 2021, Iron Ore has started to test May 2020 lows, close to US $90 per metric tonne. The commodity is grating against predictions by ANZ Bank (ASX: ANZ) for it to “find a floor around current levels”. Demand (or lack thereof) from China is what has driven the price of Iron Ore sub-100 dollars. Chinese authorities have ordered its steel manufacturers (large consumers of Iron Ore) to cut production to meet targets to reduce energy consumption and pollution across its provinces. China’s production restrictions are scheduled to last until mid-March 2022. According to S&P Global, Iron Ore outlook is unfavourable, with “pricing risk is to the downside” as supply tends to increase in the latter half of the year.
L
by BlackBull_Markets
position vendeuse bois de construction! LUMBERBonjour ! J'ai décidé cette fin de semaine de vous présenter cette analyse très intéressante avec un fort potentiel et une probabilité de gain. Analyse long terme sur le bois de construction. * Depuis avril 2020 le prix du bois a grimpé de plus de 50% après son plus bas de mars 2020 à 255$ US. Cette hausse se traduit malgré le covid-19 aux prévision macro concernant les mises en chantier aux usa comme au canada . Il faut noter que le marché de la construction américain et le niveau de sa demande suit l'évolution des restriction de construction par rapport à l'évolution sanitaire qui sévit aux usa actuellement. Un deuxième élément qui m'a intéressé sur cette matière première est la baisse de la demande qui est entrain d’emmener structurellement les gros producteurs canadiens et américains à ajuster leurs productions et même à suspendre certaines de leurs activités. Techniquement: depuis 01 Janvier 1985 le cours du bois a oscillé entre les bornes supérieurs et inférieures du canal haussier représenté par les trendlines vertes . Il faut noter que la trendline rouge représente la droite marquant l'histoire du bois de construction depuis 1973 . En 2003 après avoir buté sur la trendline rouge ; les prix sont passés de 213.5$ à 315.2$ soit un bond de prés de 36.15% pour ensuite aller chercher la borne supérieure su canal à 456$ approximativement au même niveau que les sommets de 1999,1996. De septembre 2015 à Mai 2018 le bois à progressé de près de 188% (209$ plus bas 2001,2003,2009) à (604.4$ plus haut jamais enregistré) cassant même de force la borne supérieure du canal pour après le réintégrer. A l'heure où je vous partage cette analyse , nous sommes dans une zone fort intéressante dont l'issue pourrait se concrétiser techniquement par une répétition de l'histoire , donc cassure de la trendline suivi d'in pull back et réintégration du canal sinon; on va assister à de nouveaux records(2018 630$). La première hypothèse est celle que je porte . Selon ichimoku les prix se sont trop éloignés de la kijun et de al tenkan , un scénario de retour vers la tenkan est donc à considérer . Pour le moment la lagging n'a pas encore confirmée son signal de vente car pour le moment aucun obstacle devant elle. j'attends la validation de la lagging après la clôture hebdomadaire de la semaine prochaine. Si cassure après clôture la semaine prochaine la probabilité d'aller tester le sommet de 2018 est forte . Bon weekend !
LShort
by abro.michael