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USD JPY - Sell imbalance, before long term buying opportunities.Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous analysis's Original - Updated - Firstly, if you have been following - the longs are still active - in the form of a forward contract, will be looking to open more FX positions as and when based on the analysis below. As analysed - the buying power imbalance was key to the buying positions upon multiple opportunities to add along the way. Monthly imbalances for USD JPY These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 100.00 to be a structural level for the USD. The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 100-102. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a higher low, informing that the buyers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone. Since the previous analysis update - price has now reached the monthly zone between 109.6 - 111.8X which has is show below. From the analysis - a short opportunity is present, but overall the structure is bullish, so whilst this is a counter trade, please keep in mind the overall monthly indicates a long* - this is due to a correctional play which will have a probability of occurring. -Short, -before very long opportunity occurs. Bullish pattern outline Imbalance Netting* Where the buying power and selling power have now successfully netted to Zero, based upon a volume level of 50/50 tug of war. This can now shift the probability towards the transition of sellers, taken Cross-asset comparison; Looking to the DXY, US05-US02Y short term yields, look towards the critical levels here where DXY and USDJPY shows an opportunity where imbalances have established. Breakdown of Technical write up Quantitative easing (QE) is where the increasing the money supply of the system, where the Central Bank creates new money and uses the money to make asset purchases. These asset purchases inject the new money into the system. (QE) tapering will be seen on interest rates. The impact is almost immediate - affecting the sentiment. (QE) can be used where interest is at zero %, as the central bank(s) want to introduce more stimulus. Conversely - when easing occurs, adoption of a new introduction is will send the interest rates shooting, the money to those who can offer the highest interest rates and this competition will send the interest rates skyrocketing. This directly affects the Equity market and the FX safe-haven pairs immediately. Employment In relation to employment is closely linked to that state of inflation or deflation in the economy. When there is excess money in the economy, the confidence is upbeat and CPI aligns with goods production resulting in people getting employed in the economy or in this case - returning to the original job before the pandemic. Therefore quantitative easing (QE) is positively correlated to a higher employment level* subject to NFP "True" figure of new jobs created, not in the aspect of 'Return to work'. See the article snippet below affecting the US Market. "On Labor Day, COVID-era expanded unemployment benefit programs expired. Those temporary programs included the $300 weekly bonus checks as well as coverage for those who are normally ineligible for unemployment insurance, like gig workers and the long-term unemployed. More than 11 million people were impacted by the cutoff, and roughly 7.5 million people lost their benefits entirely". - Source CNET.com/personal-finance/your/money Inflation or Deflation? inflation is likely to turn into deflation through (QE) where tapering pulls money out of the system, where less money (as compared to before) chasing the goods available, making every good less expensive. Great for consumers?! Daily Fibonacci The technical aspect here is price will need to engineer a long movement so when coming to a pivotal point on the Fibonacci extension target, price will react here, allowing discounted buy opportunities. However, price is within a trading range at this moment - this is a point of interest or (POI), where price has consolidated heaps Using the inverse Fibonacci based upon a channel formation for the short covering position, based upon a tapering scenario Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
7
Cardano - New Imbalances and targets [September]Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish, this will be dragged by BTC and ETH correlative movements. Removal; Three day chart, Entry criteria scenario Model figures of Base, Conservative case for price targets Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly structure The market is presenting an interesting scenario; Whereby price has tested the 0.236% Fibonacci - and rejected. However, price can still revert to this level. I.// Where price retests, and rejects further - look to a buy probability with the imbalance closing out with the equal wick to the previous month, assessing the low reactive point. II.// If price indicates a reactive level break, add a net sell position to hedge long positions creating an absolute return positive. Weekly Weekly Impulse, correction, Impulse waves? Notice, that price has reverted back upon the first Fibonacci sequence wave from the established "0" to 0.705 upon the structure. Using the price wave theory as a basic concept - price has made the consolidation one since the initial tail off from the peak back in 2018. Price has provided a gearing process where the imbalance can be closed out in creating the next sequence high using imbalances, and Fibonacci targets for extension targets. The reversion pivot points are 61-70.5% creating the imbalance confirmation - where price will look to as a position of interest to change hands of sellers to buyers if required. Taking the theory and applying said wave; shows the possible predictive pathway - reason being, price has a volume increase, propelling a multitude of in-flow into the market capitalisation. looking to marketcap: - we have seen that Cardano currently amounts to $77.3B in market cap, with a market share of 3.6% as of Septmber 15th 2021. and the model assumptions taken from the base case and conservative targets, overall - the buyers are ever present, looking at the current supply of 71% of tokens circulating, this enables us to understand where price will move in the future as the supply ever reaches full circulation. ** If you are interested in the model of the market cap - please send a message via tradingview. The Daily correction, has provided a solid basis for additional opportunities. The pathway Whilst BTC and ETH have market dominance, note the importance of the price fluctuations upon these cryptocurrencies, whereby large imbalance moves positive and negative will have a correlative but not a causative response. The idea of having the imbalance at the previous is historical, based upon market structure and explained above. Using the market Capitalisation See the weekly chart below in reference to the following; BTC - White ETH - Purple ADA - Light Blue The correlation upon the three largest crypto's all have a relativity and looking over the charts all have similar imbalances , Bitcoin being the most dominant, offers the shift in change first, followed by a lag time for ETH and ADA as the chart shows. Though the products follow different develops within their own space, please note - from a technical aspect the chart still shows a strong factor for clear opportunities to buy, sell based upon price reactive levels - which correlate to the market Cap. Adding Volume profile with Market capitalisation of buyers, sellers distinguishing where the key volume areas are. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
BINANCE:ADAUSDLong
by LupaCapital
5
GBP JPY - Awaiting the critical selling pointHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish, where the main trades are placed at 154.5X and 156X respectively . Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour July Analysis; July 9th May 4th Here is the weekly imbalance below - where price has comfortably retraced from the monthly imbalance zone. What does the imbalance show? With the highs of 156.XX creating a needed retracement upon a pivot point - the monthly imbalance has been successfully filled. From here using confirmations - shorts were placed to hedge and override long positions. The weekly has created successfully - lower lows - meaning that price is looking to correct. Previous analysis back in July - awaiting the next move to occur around 148.00 - 148.40 to £1.00 Scenario I Using the Bullish scenario - where price will test the weekly imbalance between 151-148 - noting a opportunity to add longs from here. Price has a fresh weekly zone - which is in this area. The pivot point will need to touch the imbalance and reject successfully. Price will look to revert back to the 61.8% Fibonacci at 154.3 or extend back to 70.5% at 154.7X Here is the current Weekly Scenario This takes into account the movements where buyers took control of the correctional See further for the before -0.618% Reversion price fractal found in the daily Imbalance. Bearish scenario Where price is rejecting the 156 - price can fall to a potential low - towards 141. This is due to the heavy bullish imbalance which was established back in November 2020. Price had created a reversion point - and from here the imbalance had tested the rising channel - creating a huge opportunity. With imbalances - price can and will move back to retest the lower imbalance. Despite the overall *3month chart - producing a bullish consensus, the pattern can be a longer term buy. Where price has a probability of breaking the weekly imbalance - the chance of the price continuing is likely. Again this is using probabilities, to understand why this area is of interest, refer to the upload chart provided. Be aware any reactive level offers volatility and an opportunity to add buy orders, sell orders to generate hedged net positions. Below is a predictive pattern based on a line drawing, but is represented using the buying opportunity to the desired area of interest which lies ahead. - Hence, the forecast. Cross correlations between GBP USD, XAU USD The price chart here signifies what GBP USD is doing, where the dollar is correcting against the pound from an imbalance level at 1. 40 - price is now in a correctional phase, awaiting a buy move, therefore GBP JPY with a strong inverse, is also experiencing the same inverse phase. It looks like the Sterling pairs are correcting and correlating, meanwhile XAU is whipsawing upon the 1775-1800 mark. The correlation will vary between time frames, but in terms of the way the range works, this ignores noisy data on the lower time frames and highlights different imbalances which match up using the four day and weekly crossing of imbalances. To see the inverse correlation (not causation) of two GBP pairs, both affected by the reactive levels taking place at the same time. Please note* trading opposite correlated pairs upon a imbalance level is highly not advised due to 100% loss taking trades in opposite directions when price reverts against you. The strategy should be implemented upon confirms. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
11
AUD CAD - Long imbalancesHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly Imbalances Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD CAD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price reacted to the level -0.786 Fibonacci Extension, which aligns from the 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. Weekly Imbalance The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.91 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price - objectively closing out the The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios; 1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation . 2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to buy. Weekly Pathway The weekly pathway offers a solid opportunity to buy from the imbalance - whereby price has corrected and now formed bullish candles justifying a break of structure. Do not rule out a retest of this zone, before entering a second position* The probability offers a strong area of a change of hands from buyers and sellers - hence why this is a reactive zone upon the completion of the Fibonacci sequence. Fibonacci Pattern is completed on the daily Very simply taking the high to the low application of structure, price targets end up in a completion pattern which correlates to a weekly, monthly structure where price will pivot and create a "demand" or "supply" (however this case it is a buying demand). This is known as the true value of an imbalance where short sellers are now discounting the price to the reversion point for buyers to enter at a discount factor. Based on the high reversion probability - entering a buy based upon confirmation where imbalances "net off" the structure can offer applications of buying power. Refer to the Chart of USDCAD or AUD USD for references - both showing discount factors. USD CAD weekly chart AUD USD correction upon the weekly chart Volume indication Volume profile from the previous structure to the current structure Current position: View comments for updates, new additions Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
5
GBP AUD - New daily buys addedHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous Analysis's original Analysis below: How the trade is going since inception; Please note - three positions are held at any one time. Forward contracts, CFD and spot fx are used to mitigate risk and fee's. Original analysis process. Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view. 1. Zone 1: - 1.72 - 1.75 we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows. From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs. A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie. 2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development. We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps. Moving to now... Monthly imbalances: Pretty simple breakdown from a monthly perspective, where GBP maxed out in March 2020 and began the sellers imbalance to reach lows of 1.742 as previously stated above. From a buying retrace imbalance - the targets are set at the 1.87 mark and 1.93 the next target. From a positional buy into 2022 if the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement permits the target and holds above, then extension of 2.0X will be looked towards. Weekly imbalance While the GBP and Aussie is trading within a defined range - adding more positions on the range lows are pivotal here to maintain the long position. The weekly position now is clear with the daily candle to close within the Weekly, the probability to continue the rally base rally is evident. The movement since The pathway Bullish scenario, combined with the bears using a weekly timeframe is below. Using the bullish scenario firstly - where the white candles represent the bullish scenario. The weekly imbalance covers a strong are where price has now left after consolidating for weeks and broke through. Price can now extend and revert back to 1.85XX, this will offer a strong opportunity to add positions here to get to the 2.XX+ target. The bearish scenario is inclusive - where price can revert back to 1.82 which is a strong pivot point, however this scenario probability is low, as price has now left this zone. Price can create a new zone at 1.85 as a Fibonacci zone. Volume profile Here is a weekly profile which shows the bullish nature outperforming the bears. Where the profile looks to the weekly the 1.82 had the reactive level which was of importance. Since then, has seen a stream of blue. meaning the bulls are in control. Closely correlated pairs GBP NZD and EUR AUD weekly chart and monthly chart respectively using correlation and imbalances. Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. The DXY is pivotal DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. SPX vs AUD USD with an importance note of GBP AUD. The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. Pre-march Previous scenario since the lowest point - where the monthly imbalance had hit the march low. The current scenario The update has seen the weekly imbalances from the march low of 2020, where price had a strong inverse correlation between AUD USD, GBP AUD with the DXY spiking also. Now with a criteria regarding room to towards the imbalance, the monthly and weekly will offer the highly probable reactive levels. Keep on top of the pairs and specifically the S&P for a fundamental view which affects the AUD. Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence. Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
3
AUD USD - Imbalance, Channel combo - September 2021Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous analysis: link here: See the previous work The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first, using a a daily Fibonacci on the daily chart, the price levels of this very strong strength from the Australian Dollar, the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% is a strong possibility which has now been proved as price action here tapped 0.772 zone and consolidated while still making higher lows - giving confidence of confluence here rising to the monthly imbalance. The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. The plan since the original analysis, price has been bullish and driving towards the 0.80 mark as expected. beating the analysis prediction at an early scenario by 1 week. Monthly imbalances Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD USD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. Weekly time frame Imbalances The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.80 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price. The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios; 1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation . 2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to sell again. 16 Hour visual the pattern has aligned with a lower high channel formation with price now experiencing a further sell upon the green zone. Price has begun to show pressure with the candle formations testing the zone of interest. Daily Fibonacci The Daily Fibonacci provided a full pattern completion to the -0.618% extension, now price is climbing towards the "0" Fibonacci. Short sellers, will be looking at 0.73$ as place to sell, Whilst I agree, probability of confirmation allows the full heavy sells to be added. Notice how price will revert to test the zone price has come from. But creating the formation of a lower high, will be needed to be completed first. The fractal will show where price will potentially close within proximity of the imbalance to "close out" the fractal. Four Day Chart VIP SPX vs AUDUSD The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. DXY criteria: DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. DXY Now Where the DXY is at current state of play; Correlation: Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. See the GBP AUD chart here for further updates. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
8
USD CAD - 1.258 rejection as plannedHello, See below the previous analysis from a couple of days back; The key level here was 1.258X where the range of price will interact with the 0.382% Fibonacci, also a pivot point in the bullish structure; Where; 1. Price respects the imbalance upon the price reactive levels. 2. Price had offered a selling range from the reactive top of the structure and needed to find a key demand to offer a discount. Here is the idea. Weekly Chart Weekly Structure has offered a heavily discounted buy opportunity to take a new position or additional upon current longs. Refer to the volume chart to assist for volume traders - this shows the key driver for the change of hands which occurred at 1.21X zone. Monthly USOIL Refer to the correlation of the US OIL chart and compare USDCAD for inverse correlation. Attached are the key monthly and fibonacci zones intertwined. About me; Student of Lupacapitalpartners - imbalance analyst. Supplyanddemand trader Technical approach to charting Work in Investment banking, LDN - 3years in credit. Many thanks, XYHLX
Long
by XYHLX
BTC USD - currently neutral, overall longHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Please see the previous chart idea to understand where price was heading Monthly Imbalances Here are the latest imbalances for Bitcoin, where the point of interest had offered a weekly candle close from the peak high of $64,823.XX to $51,997.XX. This is a huge imbalance where price has offered a large change of hands to a critical price inefficiency. Sellers are now in control and created a low with a heavy drop where the weekly shows the rapid selling. This is due to the buying imbalance now changing to provide efficiency based up on the pivot point. Weekly Imbalances On the weekly - price has now created a mid zone where the low of $28,200 zone, price has tested this but created upon the monthly - an opportunity of this low saw multiple retests - this offers a high opportunity for price to assess the direction. Price has now created multiple indecisions and a 50% to $41,300 offering a $13000 est range. The upper zone between $64,7XX to $56,XXX has strong weekly selling. Reviewing the candlesticks shows a clear sell opportunity, but awaiting confirmations would be to see lower lows created and the retest of the candle. See below* See what happened from our previous analysis - From the $50,000, a trade hedge has been place to capture selling opportunities as price offered a opportunity to short term sell, but long term holding target - subject to pivot points. Trade is now in full profit and if stopped out, no losses will be incurred Here is the Daily, since the previous analysis - please ensure you read to understand why this was taken. Overall, yes the market is in a bullish structure using the inception and three month chart, conversely price will always return to the imbalance - when? This is the question. BTC USD Bitcoin is still the overall leader within the movement of the Cryptocurrency world, and there is a large area of movement for price to close lower and lower into the territory where price will look to reverse at two options; highlight on the monthly zone. See below for the analysis to show that imbalances repeat themselves. The weekly has applications for lower lows, with a large amount of room to the imbalance to the downside. This is a fresh structural cycle - where price has and will move to this level. BTC Line chart Price has the opportunity to falsify a move to the upside. BTC VS ETH USD As the two largest cryptos are both here and where the correlation of smaller alternative coins - the market is in "euphoria mode" but to prevent losing out. Paying attention to the critical levels highlighted below will assist. Where price breaks $2,000 on ETH "Rounded Psychological level", price will created a lower bearish channel formation - the opposite to See the capitalization of the two correlated pairs with respect to Ethereum Based Link. Key Bitcoin - BTC - Blue Ethereum - ETH - Purple Link - LNK - White See the secondary scale showing BTC price chart using the weekly to identify the zone to watch for. Volume analysis Using the Daily chart - Here shows the tight range of buyers and sellers by volume. The largest zone has been heavy between the $38,000 to $32,000 range. Current state, using volume analysis at the $50k Previous 50k mark Notice the same change of hands? Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by LupaCapital
5
AUD USD - Target reached! Now what?Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous analysis: link here: See the previous work June analysis: The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first, using a a daily Fibonacci on the daily chart, the price levels of this very strong strength from the Australian Dollar, the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% is a strong possibility which has now been proved as price action here tapped 0.772 zone and consolidated while still making higher lows - giving confidence of confluence here rising to the monthly imbalance. The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. The plan since the original analysis, price has been bullish and driving towards the 0.80 mark as expected. beating the analysis prediction at an early scenario by 1 week. Monthly imbalances Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD USD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. Weekly time frame Imbalances The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.80 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price. The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios; 1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation . 2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to sell again. Daily Fibonacci The Daily Fibonacci provided a double top or a 50% retracement rejection. For the shorter term sellers adding a position here would suffice, but recommend placing a larger position on the 61.8% as mentioned. The edge of the monthly imbalance, has key closes which come down to a daily level with fractal pivot points. Notice how price will revert to test the zone price has come from. But creating the formation of a lower high. The Answer is yes to continue to hold further Yes it has and here is the proof, revert back to June 29th chart and hit replay. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
1
GBP USD - Sell active using probabilityHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a technical breakdown analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to selling further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Below are the monthly imbalances Firstly using the monthly timeframe, this has provided two key zones of interests for long positions. (i) the huge sell off from the US Dollar back in March 2020 provided a key buying imbalance, this had affected the correlation between other pairs against the USD, for example - AUD,NZD,EUR, etc. the swing low formation hit 1.1394X with a sharp whipsaw effect on the monthly timeframe. (ii) the price reverted back to the original imbalance - to the zone including the psychological 1.40mark. These established zones are prominent on the chart for two key reasons; i. price always retests imbalances ii. where the monthly chart is showing pressure against the GBP creating a lower low pattern through the chart structure historically. Weekly imbalances The weekly imbalances have been established within the monthly zones - where the use of the Fibonacci pattern has completed. The selling position in play due to two criteria based upon the weekly see below images to support the probability of sells as the monthly imbalance is within a strong reactive level. Using the Fibonacci based upon the market structure - price has completed the 1.618 extension target or if using the inverse method -0.618 target. Once the established high is deemed, the weekly structure is formed from the far left - showing the weekly sell candle rejecting the imbalance top closing out the previous high of the structure. The reversion back into the monthly zone offers a sell position to be placed capturing the move. Price had retested this zone again failing to extend the buying imbalance to create a second block. Instead, the lower high suggests price will continue to falter. Hence a higher sell probability. Cross-Pair analysis See below for the cross asset-comparison between the following; EUR USD - Purple GBP USD - White USD CAD - Cyan AUD USD - Dark Blue The inverse correlation, not causation here shows the negative correlation as opposed to USD CAD. This stems back to the supply and demand factor from the relevant cross-pair analysis's where imbalances exist for each. . See the reference using the weekly chart against the EUR USD Four Hour Chart See the four hour below; The pivot points are exactly on the same timeframe, just the fractal differs. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
3
XRP - New daily buying imbalanceHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the previous idea here; Monthly Imbalances The three identified zones are in place to show where the major selling, buying positions are highly critical to imbalances, based upon the structure completing the pivot pattern and or Supply and demand scenarios. Within these structures, by now - it is important to identify knowing where in these reactive zones, buying is highly probable based upon the previous structure showing a rejection and or whipsaw effect on the monthly candle sticks. Zoom in to the weekly, daily on the previous structures to learn more where price has reacted and shown elements of the imbalance shifting from low probability scenarios to high probability. Weekly Imbalances Price had correctly rejected the 70.5% structure for a buying perspective which aligns with the in between of the selling targets of -0.27 and -0.618. The reason price didn't hit this zone as yet? The probability now looks low, but never exclude this as the price has previously fallen to $0.30-0.20 zone during the weekly and monthly imbalances. Price works best by reacting to strong levels so never overlook. Bullish weekly scenario - analysed April 26th - this has been a huge success! As mentioned above, the weekly imbalance held as the deciding factor with the market structures where the largest coins Bitcoin and Ethereum dominance accelerate the coins values to the upside along with the technical approach of buyers entering the market. Four Day Imbalances Price has placed a key weekly whipsaw effect from the initial formation of the price inefficiency. II The consequence of this pair being the most liquid is testing the previous imbalance upon the motion of a risk scenario where price becomes a controlled shift of price inefficiency. The monthly reference here shows four candles of interest whereby consecutive months have resulted in large wicks where price has created the imbalance required. The four day technical approach will be to first achieve $1.90 where the previous imbalance had created a highly probable sellers reactive zone. To extend the buying positional holds, this area would need to allow price to close within the imbalance and maintain a consolidation phase, which is a fractal pattern within the reactive zone. Daily The imbalance is clear where price can and has a highly probable likelihood of buyers looking to extend buys. This zone has offered an opportunity with a clear buying imbalance - however, this reactive zone will revert in the future if price fails to clear $1.90, meaning this will be where sellers will most likely initiate profit taking. Crypto correlation chart TRX USD - orange - - 96% correlation Dash USD - light blue - - 96% Sushi USD - Green - Sushi swap - 93% ETH USD - Purple - Ethereum - 81% Using the weekly chart - the highest correlated pairs with XRP have the main interest in purple; ETH, in terms of the dominance of the market cap and volume. The weekly correlation has seen all pairs to navigate smooth buying pressure towards the imbalances which lay waiting. Where a correctional move can take place, will be back to imbalances highly likely to be filled on the weekly and monthly timeframe, refer to ETH chart and analysis for further information. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by LupaCapital
2
AUD USD - Hold shorts in AugustHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous analysis: link here: See the previous work June analysis: The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first, using a a daily Fibonacci on the daily chart, the price levels of this very strong strength from the Australian Dollar, the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% is a strong possibility which has now been proved as price action here tapped 0.772 zone and consolidated while still making higher lows - giving confidence of confluence here rising to the monthly imbalance. The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. The plan since the original analysis, price has been bullish and driving towards the 0.80 mark as expected. beating the analysis prediction at an early scenario by 1 week. Monthly imbalances Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD USD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. Weekly time frame Imbalances The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.80 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price. The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios; 1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation . 2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to sell again. Daily Fibonacci The Daily Fibonacci provided a double top or a 50% retracement rejection. For the shorter term sellers adding a position here would suffice, but recommend placing a larger position on the 61.8% as mentioned. The edge of the monthly imbalance, has key closes which come down to a daily level with fractal pivot points. Notice how price will revert to test the zone price has come from. But creating the formation of a lower high. SPX vs AUDUSD The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. DXY criteria: DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. Correlation: Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. See the GBP AUD chart here for further updates. Gold production as the Aussie is a commodity currency. Gold discounted offering See here for the imbalances on Gold . This can help adjust the situation upon the USD. Why is gold falling? Well simply put volatile situations where the return of XAU maintains no yield, the Dollar however does Yield through interest rates. Gold will look to fall to level of around $1500 before examining next where the price is to move next. However pay attention to the 1700* whereby price has a good wick where price can closed out and may have an alternate buy opportunity here. 4 hour view - potential bearish continuation? Here we have a clear imbalance filled where price has touched the low and successfully rejecting as price closed out - confirming the imbalance. Now price has continued to sell off - looking for a low of the Fibonacci '0'' to be tested. From here price will look to continue and break the zone at the low structural four hour zone. Yes it has and here is the proof, revert back to June 29th chart and hit replay. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
3
ETH USD - August UpdateHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the original idea May 25th 2021 Assessing ETH & BTC Dominance Below is the ETH vs BTC on the monthly chart. Applied imbalances on both charts side by side. ETH vs BTC Ethereum imbalances applied vs the monthly Bitcoin imbalances. Below are the monthly imbalances Firstly using the monthly timeframe, this has provided two key zones of interests for long positions. (i) the first zone has created a perfect early opportunity where price has firstly established a high of $143X dollars and retested the low - creating an inefficiency between the high and the low. Now from the low test - price has confirmed a strong imbalance where price can now target to create an equal high. (ii) the second zone which marks an in efficiency - is between $200 - 490, where the monthly zone had created a bearish month - by creating a pathway from the bearish candle high, notice how price closed out the previous wick on the falling pattern back in July 2018. This is the key identifier which price has re-aligned creating a fractal pattern on the weekly. where; (i) A bullish fractal is created when the low point is established, with two higher low bars/candles on each side of it. (ii) A bearish fractal occurs when there is a high point with two lower high bars/candles on each side of it. Here are the weekly imbalances Here are the three zones which are imbalances created in the past. Price is currently forming a weekly/monthly imbalance at this moment, however it is difficult to determine without a close. So longs are still activated in a buying pattern upon the long term outlook and short term outlook . The first zone established - has been created using the previously created all time high from $1100 - $1400- the previous monthly wick has been closed out by the imbalances of the buyers and can become the lowest imbalance but also the strongest to identify where price will able to drop to in a bearish probable scenario. the second zone is placed above - where price created a retracement from the high established. Using the Fibonacci tool, price aligns to a low of 50% which touches the zone perfectly. This is a perfect pivot point to complete the overextension sequence using the weekly. [refer to chart ii ] Chart ii The bears are coming! - which is normal as part of buying and selling imbalances. Using the 16 hour timeframe: Below are the sixteen hour imbalances where - price has shown a good opportunity for price to react to the following zones. Note the top zone is a Fibonacci zone - as stated in multi timeframes above. The true zone according to the imbalances are $3100-3500 for a opportunity to short again . Let price fall and react accordingly to the zones. Await the opportunity for the imbalance wick to close out - where price will be successfully filled. The Bears came and fell to desired reaction level to test $1600-1750 level as expected this aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci structure and continue to offer discounts to buyers. Yet the 70.5% did not manage to adopt The reaction occurred as expected as the weekly zone below is the most important established imbalance. The overall big picture of Fibonacci combined with the imbalances: Note the 50% & 61.8% of the retracement zones are important here. Cross pair analysis Tracking the closest correlated coins . Ethereum, of course being the 2nd highest coin . Key: Bitcoin cash - Orange Litecoin - Sky blue Monero - Yellow Stellar Lumens - Purple. Using a line chart graph, you can distinctly find where price has shown a similar market structure using imbalances. Notice the pattern formation on the in the two current zones. the correlated assets are providing insights, respective to the pathway desired by price between the new imbalances. All coins have , the extension pathway has created opportunities here to continue longs - where the weekly zones and monthly zones indicate the buying zones or profit targets for sellers in kind. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by LupaCapital
5
US Oil August update with USD CADHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Original Idea here: December 15th 2020. Updated Idea: April 30th 2021 Understanding where we are now with the imbalances. Price has tested on the weekly the $67.00 high, which was a critical double top move allowing a correction to take place bringing price back towards $61.50. This established a weekly imbalance where April 19th 2021, the previous bearish wick offered a pricing pivot point. The Sellers had "netted" where the lowest point of the candle matched the fractal, allowing the market to create structural imbalance to add long positions. The engineered lows lured sellers and buyers to add aggressively. . The imbalances have netted off on the weekly to the monthly candle of February, March 2021. Now refer to the Monthly - price of the wicks low, closed at the monthly close two months previous - resting on top - meaning, the bullish movements are still in clear progression. Fibonacci & Daily Imbalance Combination Above the weekly imbalance block, price had surpassed and created the buying impulses, price needed to fill the wick as at 8th March 2021, and build upon the high probability of extending higher highs. Based upon the Fibonacci pattern, price established its peak "0" and once forming a -0.27 extension high, a correctional retest of the imbalance was required. This aligns with the Daily and weekly imbalance blocks. Volume Analysis The battle around the reactive zone is strong as the hidden battle under a monthly imbalance is a weekly imbalance, where movements create opportunities for price filling of monthly wicks. Price needed to revert from the monthly zone above $68--> to recapture correctional moves and stimulate the buying structure in place. Where confirmations were measure above, buyers were still in control. The range of buying and selling upon a weekly bullish candle cancelled out allows range traders and short term speculators to join in the liquidity. Note how the top of the volume range - bulls and bears back off, leaving the buyers to take over. USD CAD vs WTI Inverse correlation, but interesting relationship overall, as the Loonie weakens, the opportunity cost for buying from imbalances from the monthly offers the Dollar to gain traction towards the next zone. Price also offers the WTI as the Canadian Dollar weakens, pressure of the commodity to rise. The relationship between looks to the output of barrels. Use the link below to look at the US table and CAD table. US www.tradingview.com CAD www.tradingview.com Fundamental Fans Here is the current cross examination of the UK Oil Vs WTI using the weekly chart. Both are approaching a critical point in the respective price zones which both happen to be monthly imbalance zones. The correlations are gearing to a highly reactive point, so watch with caution. Understanding the Fundamentals behind the Supply, Demand & Future Supply through inflation of cause and effect. Oil prices and levels of inflation are often seen as being connected in a cause-and-effect relationship. Simply put with oil current at $66.00 per barrel, as oil prices move up, inflation—which is the measure of general price trends throughout the economy—follows in the same direction resulting in a higher overall price. Keep in mind, as the price of oil falls, inflationary pressures start to ease. Producer Price Index This is a measurement of the rate of change in prices of said commodity , where the change in prices of the products sold is measured by the producer. The exclusion of Tax, trade margins and transport cost which are all variables a buyer of a physical will have to burden. The PPI is a average movement of price, which are subsequently tracked by the economic indicators dealing with the price fluctuations end users have to pay at the end of the supply line. Adding the inflation ETF into the mix, the commodity price is rising inline with both the UK oil and WTI - so again the rate of positive correlation here is showing highly probable further increments to long positions. See below for the weekly chart. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
TVC:USOILLong
by LupaCapital
BTC USD - Patience is a virtueHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged neutral, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Please see the previous chart idea to understand where price was heading; Monthly Imbalances Here are the latest imbalances for Bitcoin, where the point of interest had offered a weekly candle close from the peak high of $64,823.XX to $51,997.XX. This is a huge imbalance where price has offered a large change of hands to a critical price inefficiency. Sellers are now in control and created a low with a heavy drop where the weekly shows the rapid selling. This is due to the buying imbalance now changing to provide efficiency based up on the pivot point. See what price could do; Price has a two option zone for Bitcoin - where price has a low of $5000 to 9k zone. This is a very large sell off but the Monthly imbalance before the buying imbalances created the heavy bullish structure. This also coincides with the -0.27% Fibonacci zone. The imbalance has to be filled - so where $179XX zone offers this closing out where the previous historical wick has yet to be tapped out, creating a cancelled out measure. This will then offer the high probability for price to create a buying opportunity as the reactive level is now becoming realised. Weekly Imbalances On the weekly - price has now created a mid zone where the low of $28,200 zone, price has tested this but created upon the monthly - an opportunity of this low saw multiple retests - this offers a high opportunity for price to assess the direction. Price has now created multiple indecisions and a 50% to $41,300 offering a $13000 est range. The upper zone between $64,7XX to $56,XXX has strong weekly selling. Reviewing the candlesticks shows a clear sell opportunity, but awaiting confirmations would be to see lower lows created and the retest of the candle. See below* *Here is the weekly Fibonacci which allowed price to fall to the current zone price is now experiencing. The next move? Here is the closing of the imbalance which needs to net zero - before the next move can be confirmed. Price which reacts with the next Eclipse or -0.27 will offer a further buy or sell. Overall, yes the market is in a bullish structure using the inception and three month chart, conversely price will always return to the imbalance - when? This is the question. BTC USD Bitcoin is still the overall leader within the movement of the Cryptocurrency world, and there is a large area of movement for price to close lower and lower into the territory where price will look to reverse at two options; 1. $18,000 2. Between the monthly imbalance zone at $5,500 The weekly has shown weekly progressively lower lows - which is, still showing opportunities to add longs. The reason for these ZOI or Zones of interest, are where price has created "breather" positions on the weekly. See below for the analysis to show that imbalances repeat themselves. The weekly has applications for lower lows, with a large amount of room to the imbalance to the downside. This is a fresh structural cycle - where price has and will move to this level. Bearish Fibonacci Extension Applying the Inverse Fibonacci to the downtrend to provide clarity of the target. BTC VS ETH USD As the two largest cryptos are both here and where the correlation of smaller alternative coins - the market is in "euphoria mode" but to prevent losing out. Paying attention to the critical levels highlighted below will assist. Where price breaks $2,000 on ETH "Rounded Psychological level", price will created a lower bearish channel formation - the opposite to See the capitalization of the two correlated pairs with respect to Ethereum Based Link. Key Bitcoin - BTC - Blue Ethereum - ETH - Purple Link - LNK - White See the secondary scale showing BTC price chart using the weekly to identify the zone to watch for. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by LupaCapital
2
GBP NZD - reach a fresh zone, now we waitHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Original Idea here: February 15th 2021. March Analysis: Previous Update to the trade - proof the analysis is working! Monthly imbalances Price has rejected multiple times the zone with 1.81 being the lowest wick on a monthly close. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance What is evident here? The imbalance perfectly aligns here as price touches the price close on the monthly top reaching 2.175XX March 2020 in line with the January 2016 - where the last supply imbalance was prominent. The candles leading up to the imbalance in January, February signify great bullish continuation closes showing a clear pathway to creating a monthly double top or at least a lower high. [The matching equal high here can be seen on the three month chart* * Price had to reverse from here, this is how the imbalance fill works where price perfectly reacts of a pivot point or a pricing inefficiency. Weekly imbalances Price has rejected the monthly zone as well as on a weekly, the weekly close is showing bullish signs as the candle closes are creating higher lows. Further to this, the price analysis of the candle sticks show a strong engulfing whipsaw of a bearish week followed by a bullish week immediately after. This shows that price action on a lower time frame will indicate that the profit taking for the sellers are transitioning the imbalance of sellers to buyers. The gap from this zone where the imbalance has arisen, from a technical stand point gives the probability of the fresh zone on the monthly is the open target. Volume Analysis Weekly View At the key zone of 0.382 the buyers had two weekly whipsaw events, but failed to capitalize on this. Also, second to this - the "0" had been tested so price now had established a range to gear up from the next pivot point. Cross Pair Analysis: Understanding the cross pairs and correlation between commodity pairs The first chart shows the weekly and monthly using the commodity pairs: AUD JPY & CAD JPY in conjunction with NZD JPY. The pattern of the correlation is clear - these pairs are heading towards imbalances. Absolute correlation pairs GBP NZD comparing against the top correlators - GBP AUD and EUR NZD on a weekly time frame against the monthly timeframe. The idea here is provide insight as to how the pairs follow in correlation - and provide three options to trade across pairs. Week imbalances using the over lay of GBP NZD imbalances - EUR NZD does not correlate as strong, however looking at the pair the weekly imbalance and monthly imbalances align with key signs of liquidity wicks which engineer the low and reject the zone. Absolute pairs current scenario Here are the current state of the weekly correlation between GBP AUD, EUR NZD, the imbalances are all moving in line with the imbalance levels. GBP AUD having the closest correlation with the cross pair base using GBP. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
GBP AUD - Continuing to grow to 2.00+Hello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Grow with Lupa, this trade has seen a huge reward in pips. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Original Analysis: Previous Analysis below: Original analysis process. Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view. 1. Zone 1: - 1.72 - 1.75 we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows. From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs. A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie. 2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development. We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps. Moving to now... Monthly imbalances: Pretty simple breakdown from a monthly perspective, where GBP maxed out in March 2020 and began the sellers imbalance to reach lows of 1.742 as previously stated above. From a buying retrace imbalance - the targets are set at the 1.87 mark and 1.93 the next target. From a positional buy into 2022 if the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement permits the target and holds above, then extension of 2.0X will be looked towards. Weekly imbalance While the GBP and Aussie is trading within a defined range - adding more positions on the range lows are pivotal here to maintain the long position. The weekly position now is clear with the daily candle to close within the Weekly, the probability to continue the rally base rally is evident. The movement since The pathway Bullish scenario, combined with the bears using a weekly timeframe is below. Using the bullish scenario firstly - where the white candles represent the bullish scenario. The weekly imbalance covers a strong are where price has now left after consolidating for weeks and broke through. Price can now extend and revert back to 1.85XX, this will offer a strong opportunity to add positions here to get to the 2.XX+ target. The bearish scenario is inclusive - where price can revert back to 1.82 which is a strong pivot point, however this scenario probability is low, as price has now left this zone. Price can create a new zone at 1.85 as a Fibonacci zone. Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. The DXY is pivotal DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. SPX vs AUD USD with an importance note of GBP AUD. The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. Pre-march The current scenario The update has seen the weekly imbalances from the march low of 2020, where price had a strong inverse correlation between AUD USD, GBP AUD with the DXY spiking also. Now with a criteria regarding room to towards the imbalance, the monthly and weekly will offer the highly probable reactive levels. Keep on top of the pairs and specifically the S&P for a fundamental view which affects the AUD. Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence. Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation. Here are the weekly timeframes to support: Removed; Volume profile, explanation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD. 4 day line chart SPX talking point Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
3
Link USD - Await the next move, overall shortHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Where investors Dollar cost average in the long term, the buying or selling average will be highly beneficial to the trader opposed to the traders who lose out upon short term positions. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Please see the previous chart idea to understand where price was heading Monthly Imbalances The established upper imbalance has been printed - with the price $35 - 53 USD. Price created a monthly candle close bearish but with two weeks out of the month whipsawing offering an opportunity for the buyers to obtain a second entry. The very strong imbalance between $1.38-5.08 shows the great opportunity for longs only, it was just a case of buying in, and when price reverted back to test the low as these newly established trading ranges offer. A clear opportunity to add is recognised here - *subject to higher timeframe whereby closes are filling the wicks and rejecting the monthly. * Caveat - July has not yet completed - so the rejection can be retested and close lower - bringing into play $8-10 range where price will offer some rewarding opportunities. See what price could do; Weekly Imbalances The weekly has still provided a clear opportunity for sells to be added to the original position. Price has tested the weekly and "rejected" in most eyes, however this is a pivot point, but has created a trap for the buyers. What happens here is where attention has been increased for gearing up for a bull run. Buyers have will drive price higher where sellers will be looking for buying impulses. Price will ultimately move within a correlation range and follow the BTC and ETH market cap from a fundamental prospective. The overall investment strategy here is to dollar cost average and then await the imbalance for the price to create the larger buying opportunity. Bullish scenario Before the selling opportunity occurs. Note the valid weekly imbalances to take profit or enter new reactive levels where the probability to buy, sell will present opportunities. Daily Imbalances The Daily shows alignment with the reactive levels at the 50% Fibonacci and again at 0.236 level. While price has created the temporary pump - the reactive zone, where price has yet to clear the imbalance to shift to buying imbalances. Await the change of hands - this is the clear target. Where the logical neutral mind set is in position - price can provide valuable information to those who wait. Where BTC is the market leader, prices follow in correlation See the zone above - with no "test of the fractal" Overall, yes the market is in a bullish structure using the inception and three month chart, conversely price will always return to the imbalance - when? This is the question. BTC USD, ETH USD comparison As the two largest cryptos are both here and where the correlation of smaller alternative coins - the market is in "euphoria mode" but to prevent losing out. Paying attention to the critical levels highlighted below will assist. Where price breaks $2,000 on ETH "Rounded Psychological level", price will created a lower bearish channel formation - the opposite to current situation where price has created a breakout. See the capitalization of the two correlated pairs with respect to Ethereum Based Link. Key Bitcoin - BTC - Blue Ethereum - ETH - Purple Link - LNK - White See the secondary scale showing BTC price chart using the weekly to identify the zone to watch for. Ethereum pairs correlation to ETH Weekly Linear Positive Correlation Where Ethereum has the largest market capitalisation of the Eth token based pairs, the correlated pairs to Link are; Tellor TRB - 98% positive correlation - cyan Ox - ZRX - 97% - Orange Uniswap - UNI - 96% - light purple Ethereum - ETH - 91% - dark purple Monthly chart to show the bigger picture; note the 93% Ethereum correlation is the key picture in terms on asset correlation. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:LINKUSD
by LupaCapital
4
GBP JPY - Short, but awaiting the next moveHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Previous Recap Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Here is the weekly imbalance below - where price has comfortably retraced from the monthly imbalance zone. What does the imbalance show? With the highs of 156.XX creating a needed retracement upon a pivot point - the monthly imbalance has been successfully filled. From here using confirmations - shorts were placed to hedge and override long positions. The weekly has created successfully - lower lows - meaning that price is looking to correct. Now where is a good take profit point or where is a strong area to add buys upon the imbalance? Scenario I Using the Bullish scenario - where price will test the weekly imbalance between 151-148 - noting a opportunity to add longs from here. Price has a fresh weekly zone - which is in this area. The pivot point will need to touch the imbalance and reject successfully. Daily imbalances Here is the daily imbalances - where prices has established three zones - where the monthly and weekly have created a as explained above, the lower lows. Price did create a low, and a retracement creating a further daily imbalance which was also the 50%-61.8% The price targets complete the pattern at estimated 148.3XX subject to price taking us to this imbalance point. Bearish scenario Where price is rejecting the 156 - price can fall to a potential low - towards 141. This is due to the heavy bullish imbalance which was established back in November 2020. Price had created a reversion point - and from here the imbalance had tested the rising channel - creating a huge opportunity. With imbalances - price can and will move back to retest the lower imbalance. Despite the overall *3month chart - producing a bullish consensus, the pattern can be a longer term buy. Where price has a probability of breaking the weekly imbalance - the chance of the price continuing is likely. Again this is using probabilities. Fibonacci - Daily Using the Fibonacci upon the daily timeframe, assists with looking for imbalances and confirms reaction points which aligns near levels which are of interest (by looking left). Cross correlations between GBP USD, XAU USD The price chart here signifies what GBP USD is doing, where the dollar is correcting against the pound from an imbalance level at 1. 40 - price is now in a correctional phase, awaiting a buy move, therefore GBP JPY with a strong inverse, is also experiencing the same inverse phase. The 16 hour chart above shows some key levels marked by the Yellow line markings show the correlation between the asset prices using GBP as a positive and XAU as a negative. The correlation will vary between time frames, but in terms of the way the range works, this ignores noisy data on the lower time frames and highlights different imbalances which match up using the four day and weekly crossing of imbalances. Current cross analysis Here is the current analysis using the four day view and the monthly chart to see the rise of the Pound Sterling against the cross pairs as well as the correctional move for Gold. XAU USD - weekly looks interesting in terms of a correlation aspect. The JXY - what is going here? Well, the Yen is getting stronger - which means the inverse correlation for the GBP JPY and respective pairs. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
6
USD CAD - Fibonacci Day sequence completeHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. See the original idea: USD CAD - Longs positions active AUD USD - USD CAD - Fibonacci Pattern work Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly Imbalance Weekly Imbalances Below are the imbalances for the weekly, where the previous low 1.19XX had provided the closing wick for the monthly candle close. The imbalance here is key to understand the rejection and retest of the zone is highly probable. 1. Price closed and matched the May 18th 2015 weekly close - meaning the wick is successfully retested. 2. Price has now hit a pivot point and created a monthly imbalance. Looking to the weekly however, price traded a cluster of candles which shows the 'battle' printing indecision - what does this signify? Imbalance trading from buyers to sellers, sellers to buyers - as a imbalance trader - a trade will be placed here before an aggressive addition later. Further explanation: 3. When forming a sell position rally, base rally, or in a market shift 'poising' for a bearish continued market structure, the crucial aspect here is to understand the trading range on the daily and weekly timeframe where the maximum to the pip top of the range identifies with the 1.466 to 1.469X. The significance of this here is purely the closing out of the fractal pattern completing the cycle. Cross asset relationship between asset crosses Purple - XAU USD Dark Blue - US500 The reason for showing this chart here is with Canada and US both contributing to the top ten countries in output for the commodity. The Correlation of using Gold against the Standard & Poors 500 index shows the inverse of the US dollar imbalance as opposed to the SPX bullish imbalances. Gold is on a correctional imbalance as the Metal is cross correlated using a global investor asset whereas the focus on SPX is focused on the U.S markets. Monthly View USD CAD relationship with US OIL and EUR USD. Again here is another cross asset whereby Oil heavily produced by the USA and Canada a like. The EUR USD and Oil are both on bullish imbalances, however the imbalance on EUR USD has been confirmed and identified . Purple - EUR USD Dark Blue - US OIL The weekly view and monthly are key to providing inverse correlations and look for pivot , fractals on higher timeframes. In order to fully comprehend why these are crosses are key, looking into the chart shows key structural areas which on USD CAD can show a long probability. However on the Oil chart, can show an identified Selling probability. I. Weekly view Weekly view Fibonacci Extension Using this pathway build upon how the market cycle repeats, the application of the Fibonacci can be used here to plot next moves for entry areas in conjunction with the higher time frame to use the price path to reach the desired targets. Using the imbalance and Fibonacci tool also assists with trade management in terms of open interest fee's and furthermore exposure in short term trend shifts. Weekly - Fibonacci extension Daily Fibonacci The daily Fibonacci pathway shows a completion of the -0.618 target, where price is now consolidating on a smaller timeframe. A cup and handle pattern is forming on the daily pattern. USD CAD vs DXY What does this show here? Well the US Dollar has been been seeing a downward move towards a strong imbalance which aligns with the USD CAD zone on the weekly timeframe. With the Dollar showing weakness and the DXY showing relative weakness, while yes the Dollar is weak. This important monthly zone will set up a buy/long opportunity where price will reject and consistently create an inverted pattern for example - Head and Shoulders, bull flag. Rejection wick for a false break. Analysis breakdown: The chart below shows that a cross-asset comparison compares USD/CAD - Grey USOIL - Orange AUDUSD - Pink Dollar Index - Blue These are based on the weekly timeframe and without adding imbalances - the price lines both have noticeable - negative correlation and align to the imbalances upon the monthly. (charted in light blue). American Treasury rates are going higher. When they will rise depends partially on the US labor market and partially on inflation. Janet Yellon needs to remain vigilant on the inflation status where bottlenecks are re-opening of the economy. However, price imbalances in commodities have a lot of upside remaining. So lookout for rate hikes. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
3
GBP AUD - 4hour 50% Fibonacci rejectionHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Scroll to the bottom to see valuable information regarding GBP AUD, NZD. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Original analysis process. Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view. 1. Zone 1: - 1.72 - 1.75 we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows. From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs. A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie. 2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development. We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps. Moving to now... Monthly imbalances: Pretty simple breakdown from a monthly perspective, where GBP maxed out in March 2020 and began the sellers imbalance to reach lows of 1.742 as previously stated above. From a buying retrace imbalance - the targets are set at the 1.87 mark and 1.93 the next target. From a positional buy into 2022 if the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement permits the target and holds above, then extension of 2.0X will be looked towards. Weekly imbalance While the GBP and Aussie is trading within a defined range - adding more positions on the range lows are pivotal here to maintain the long position. The weekly position now is clear with the daily candle to close within the Weekly, the probability to continue the rally base rally is evident. The movement since: Closely correlated pairs GBP NZD and EUR AUD weekly chart and monthly chart respectively using correlation and imbalances. Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. The DXY is pivotal DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. SPX vs AUD USD with an importance note of GBP AUD. The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. Pre-march Current scenario: since the lowest point - where the monthly imbalance had hit the march low. GBPNZD 4 hour - Fibonacci rejection also, but the 61.8% as the correlation between the New Zealand Dollar is not 1:1 correlation. Both pairs have slippage as the pairs move quick in terms of volatile moves upon reactive zones. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
5
CAD JPY - Long imbalance opportunity upon completionHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to the selling opportunities further increments upon imbalances. Overall, assessing the short idea . Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the private analysis to prove the original move anticipated. Monthly Imbalances - with profit targets Attached is the daily chart with the current positional sell in play. Why? Ensure you check the screenshot below dated March 17th - the order was set as a sell limit where price will create a high probability of an imbalance at 90-91.5 - this is the monthly zone where the imbalance needed testing. Please note* - where price can produce a level which slips outside the monthly zone. Why did we set our order here? Very simple - the monthly and weekly align with two highly probable zones where the imbalances of reactive levels exist yet remain untested. The Monthly - highlights an area which has been clean since 2018 - and what this means, broken down is that price has offered a correctional downtrend, where overall the downward channel has shown a breakout - and a move towards the monthly zone. With a large candle pattern on the monthly printing pure bullish candles - the reason behind this is due to the buying imbalance offering a long from 74-76.3X. Weekly imbalances Here is the a high probable area predicted - where price was watched closely and sell limits were placed. Price will be pushing through this zone up towards the monthly. Price may show a smaller area where the initial weekly zone has an immediate corrective move to test the lower zone of the weekly. This is a slippage move, but does not allow a sell opportunity at present, this is purely where the imbalance is beginning to take shape. This is where the pivot points in the structure are placed. Bearish pathway - predicted 17th March 2021. See the above analysis and the screenshot below to see where price ended up. See the overlay Cross-asset analysis monthly & weekly imbalances applied only. EUR JPY - With the applied weekly imbalances and month available - here is where price will react. See the analysis attached NZD JPY The Monthly imbalance has not yet touched the correct zone, however the inefficient price thus far has been found in the weekly. although, this could be considered a lower monthly zone - be ensure to check the monthly timeframe. See the analysis attached GBP JPY With the highs of 156. XX creating a needed retracement upon a pivot point - the monthly imbalance has been successfully filled. From here using confirmations - shorts were placed to hedge and override long positions. The weekly has created successfully - lower lows - meaning that price is looking to correct. See the analysis attached JXY or Japanese Yen Index Here is the analysis of the Japanese Yen Index Note on the weekly channels have pushed the Yen to show "weakness" but now, price has hit the monthly and the imbalance is now applying. Weekly Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
3
S&P 500 - Fib 1.786 Reached - where now?Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged neutral, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Overall, assessing the short idea . Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the original below: This will provide a good explanation with multiple charts and views which give enough evidence to create the possibility of the targets reaching the Fibonacci over extended pattern. Analysis for 2021 outlook. Monthly Imbalances Currently price has reached the 1.786 extension in a very quick fashion. The imbalance here on the monthly has not established itself for a sell, however a reactive level upon the monthly is the 1.786 Fibonacci Extension. Here is a potential imbalance to add longs Price has moved towards the 1.618 and 1.786, this is now a critical zone to highlight. Price has now created the interesting inefficient pricing leaving a long imbalance short effect, this will require patience while the sequence is completed for the Selling imbalance to take place. However, smaller timeframes of course opportunities will be presented. Take note of an impulsive wick and instantly rejecting, this can be the creation of the imbalance all time high. Here is the weekly imbalances which have provided the roadmap for trading. The clear path of the Fibonacci sequence - with the price offering reaction levels upon the "0" Fibonacci, again at the 1.272 (although not used on the chart) the pivot point to create a higher low between 3700-3800. Daily Imbalances The daily chart offers the overall structure from the Extension targets, providing high probabilities for bullish pricing from the price reverting to first the ("1") Fibonacci which is a double top format. From here the price had an opportunity to look for higher highs to be created. Using the the Ray extension to infinite* - the reactive levels showed imbalances where price will form a reversion point being the ray. This will dictate "bounces" and offer new additions for longs. *infinite being, using the monthly chart to show a number outside the chart axis. Daily VIX or Volatility Index overlay With a Risk-on approach, the SPX or SP500 has created multiple opportunities to continue with price rising towards the imbalance zones. VIX Chart Stand Alone This is based on the weekly chart, where the VIX has been trading in a bearish channel. Now with the inverse correlation here printing lower lows and lower highs. The SPX is printing the opposite opportunities. The monthly imbalance is still presenting a high probability of inverse moves whereby the Bullish Risk-off scenario can present itself. (Only where the price creates higher lows and engulfs from 12-14XX. Comparisons using; RINF - Inflation Expectations ETF TLT - iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF Based on the weekly as it shows further data and to distinguish patterns upon trading weeks. This is the best format to apply imbalances. Notice the inverse correlation with the Growth of the inflation ETF climbing to the double top imbalance which dates back to January 2019. The 20year bond yields are stuck in a zone of there own at this present moment distinguishing a noticeable pattern - heading towards an imbalance. for a closer display of the probability where the Vix can catch up to the 20 year yields. The VIX displays a depressed low - "Risk on approach" while witnessing the monthly imbalance to be tested. The run away of the yields however in the 20year in the past cycle rereferring to 2020 - highlights the yields to turn bullish from the imbalance in a flustered move to create a new high. The VIX is left behind but the trigger delay is then caught up and surpassed. Can this cycle repeat? Refer to the Chart below for the Aussie Dollar Vs US Dollar. Using the US Dollar strength to your advantage This explains it all in inverse correlated pair. Current scenario of the DXY vs SPX Black = DXY See the split screen of the outcome of the weekly USD CAD , where price has rejected the weekly imbalance and still inside the monthly imbalance however, but the wick on the weekly has successfully filled in the wick creating a buying imbalance upon the shift of probability. The DXY has also noted a triple bottom where the monthly shows a strong probability of the negative correlation of the SPX and EUR USD where the imbalances will offer opportunities in buying imbalances, short imbalances respectively. Here are the weekly timeframes to support: Removed Bearish Scenario, Bullish Entry scenario. FED Funds Commodities Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
TVC:SPX
by LupaCapital
5