AUD USD - broke Fibonacci "0" - keep holdingHello Traders and Analysts,
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Green = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Previous analysis:
link here:
See the previous work
AUD USD, USD CAD
The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first, using a a daily Fibonacci on the daily chart, the price levels of this very strong strength from the Australian Dollar, the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% is a strong possibility which has now been proved as price action here tapped 0.772 zone and consolidated while still making higher lows - giving confidence of confluence here rising to the monthly imbalance.
The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. The plan since the original analysis, price has been bullish and driving towards the 0.80 mark as expected. beating the analysis prediction at an early scenario by 1 week.
Monthly imbalances
Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD USD at 0.55 to a $1.00
This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons;
1. - Price is clearly making lower highs
2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers.
Weekly time frame Imbalances
The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.80 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price.
The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios;
1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation .
2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to sell again.
Fibonacci
Weekly and Daily Fibonacci levels.
Weekly Fibonacci level using the high to the low - the retrace shows the opportunity at 0.618 or 61.8% - this also aligns next to the monthly "edge" however, looking left the wick highs failed to close inside 0.785XX, which means the rejection upon this level provides a perfect opportunity for a second sell position for a positional or weekly swing sell.
Daily Fibonacci
The Daily Fibonacci provided a double top or a 50% retracement rejection. For the shorter term sellers adding a position here would suffice, but recommend placing a larger position on the 61.8% as mentioned.
The edge of the monthly imbalance, has key closes which come down to a daily level with fractal pivot points. Notice how price will revert to test the zone price has come from. But creating the formation of a lower high.
SPX vs AUDUSD
The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors.
Yields:
Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence.
Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation.
DXY criteria:
DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again.
Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected.
Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame.
Correlation:
Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD
Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason.
Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms.
AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance.
Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid.
The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength.
Here is the graphical scale below:
Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP.
See the GBP AUD chart here for further updates.
Gold production as the Aussie is a commodity currency.
Gold discounted offering
See here for the imbalances on Gold . This can help adjust the situation upon the USD.
Why is gold falling? Well simply put volatile situations where the return of XAU maintains no yield, the Dollar however does Yield through interest rates.
Gold will look to fall to level of around $1500 before examining next where the price is to move next. However pay attention to the 1700* whereby price has a good wick where price can closed out and may have an alternate buy opportunity here.
4 hour view - potential bearish continuation?
Here we have a clear imbalance filled where price has touched the low and successfully rejecting as price closed out - confirming the imbalance.
Now price has continued to sell off - looking for a low of the Fibonacci '0'' to be tested. From here price will look to continue and break the zone at the low structural four hour zone.
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
Lupacapital
EUR JPY - longs are still highly probableHello traders and analysts
Below is a good recap of an analysis which was conducted back in December 2020 .
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Red = 4 Days
Yellow = 16 Hours
Orange = Daily
Dark Green = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Below is the weekly Imbalances - where the Euro has provided a clean fractal point on the monthly imbalance back between 120.00 - 122.XX JPY.
The Fibonacci sequence using a four day and daily chart showed the newly created imbalance was a pivot point at the 61.8 - 70.5% Fibonacci retrace zone. see for further charts. Imbalances have a high probability for a retest which aligns with the monthly ray, where price will look to revert to for filling the wicks upon the four day fractals.
Here is the application of using the Fibonacci extension - where the low has been taken using the monthly imbalance zone where the 114.3X becomes the -
The high (or zero) is 127.16X where price - falters and provides a correctional using the imbalance .
Here is the evidence where price has corrected using the Fibonacci retracement which has aligned the 61.8% with a great imbalance - and a upper correctional imbalance on the 38.2%
This is using the four day perspective as a probability to prove the longs/call are still in play from the monthly imbalance.
Probable scenarios - using probability applied to the imbalances and chart data.
A possible scenario - where looking left, indicates a low probability of a correctional path.
Please note - the weekly imbalance, where price has now exited - the imbalance is now a structural pivot level - where price can close back to - with a lower time frame imbalance offering a close out from sellers to allow the Bulls to 'breathe'.
Scenario 2;
Here is the Daily trendline - which accounts for a safe option as a base case scenario. Like previously stated, where wicks are occurring, price can identify this as a reversion point to pick up buy orders - as this is where imbalances lay waiting.
Price can now consolidate or make an upside move and tail off when required.
The trend is still in tact, the pair is currently in a correctional phases as imbalances are always retested.
Cross correlation
Using the correlation table - and using the average of variable x - where EUR JPY is variable X
vs the average of variable Y - where CHF JPY is variable Y
Using data from the screenshot below - with the built in indicator of the correlation coefficient.
Below is the real cross asset weekly timeframe comparing the probability of imbalances - where two safe havens (CHF JPY) both indicate a new break of imbalance.
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
AUD USD - USD CAD - Fibonacci Pattern workHello Traders and Analysts,
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged neutral due to analysing two charts.
USD CAD Long due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
AUD USD - as price has overall since 0.80 provided short opportunities.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Green = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
To see the original analysis see below;
AUD USD - 4hour time frame
link here:
USD CAD - analysis:
USD CAD -
Bigger picture using the daily time frame - here is why price has a high probability of reacting against this zone.
Using the four hour Fibonacci sequence (inverse) as a hedging mechanism for the overall counter trend - based upon the imbalance at 1.22XX - 1.19XX
The Fibonacci extension aligns from the Top - to the low and has an extension target which perfect adjusts to
Compare the two charts - the right shows where price has a high probability of completing the pattern - and the imbalance has been filled - with a chance of rejecting and going back to continue towards the overall weekly imbalance as previously analysed.
USD CAD vs DXY
What does this show here?
Well the US Dollar has been been seeing a downward move towards a strong imbalance which aligns with the USD CAD zone on the weekly timeframe.
With the Dollar showing weakness and the DXY showing relative weakness, while yes the Dollar is weak.
This important monthly zone will set up a buy/long opportunity where price will reject and consistently create an inverted pattern for example - Head and Shoulders, bull flag. Rejection wick for a false break.
AUD USD
Below is the Daily time frame - based upon the USD imbalance showing strength - the correction from 0.80 has been in a monthly imbalance. Now to add a shorter position - to hold for maybe one - three days.
Here is the Eight hour timeframe applying the same scenario but for the bearish AUD USD.
Here is the side by side comparison using the Eight hour (left) vs the four hour (right)
The imbalance wick has been successfully filled on the eight hour imbalance and successfully rejected.
GBP AUD Correlation
Correlation:
Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD
Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason.
Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms.
AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance.
Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid.
The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index.
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
AUD USD - Testing the 0 Fibonacci - June updateHello Traders and Analysts,
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Green = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Previous analysis:
link here:
The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first, using a a daily Fibonacci on the daily chart, the price levels of this very strong strength from the Australian Dollar, the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% is a strong possibility which has now been proved as price action here tapped 0.772 zone and consolidated while still making higher lows - giving confidence of confluence here rising to the monthly imbalance.
The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. The plan since the original analysis, price has been bullish and driving towards the 0.80 mark as expected. beating the analysis prediction at an early scenario by 1 week.
Monthly imbalances
Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD USD at 0.55 to a $1.00
This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons;
1. - Price is clearly making lower highs
2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers.
Weekly time frame Imbalances
The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.80 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price.
The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios;
1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation .
2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to sell again.
Fibonacci
Weekly and Daily Fibonacci levels.
Weekly Fibonacci level using the high to the low - the retrace shows the opportunity at 0.618 or 61.8% - this also aligns next to the monthly "edge" however, looking left the wick highs failed to close inside 0.785XX, which means the rejection upon this level provides a perfect opportunity for a second sell position for a positional or weekly swing sell.
Daily Fibonacci
The Daily Fibonacci provided a double top or a 50% retracement rejection. For the shorter term sellers adding a position here would suffice, but recommend placing a larger position on the 61.8% as mentioned.
The edge of the monthly imbalance, has key closes which come down to a daily level with fractal pivot points. Notice how price will revert to test the zone price has come from. But creating the formation of a lower high.
SPX vs AUDUSD
The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors.
Yields:
Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence.
Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation.
DXY criteria:
DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again.
Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected.
Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame.
Correlation:
Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD
Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason.
Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms.
AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance.
Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid.
The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength.
Here is the graphical scale below:
Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP.
See the GBP AUD chart here for further updates.
Gold production as the Aussie is a commodity currency.
Gold discounted offering
See here for the imbalances on Gold . This can help adjust the situation upon the USD.
Why is gold falling? Well simply put volatile situations where the return of XAU maintains no yield, the Dollar however does Yield through interest rates.
Gold will look to fall to level of around $1500 before examining next where the price is to move next. However pay attention to the 1700* whereby price has a good wick where price can closed out and may have an alternate buy opportunity here.
Where are we now with the 8 hours? - update:
Price is now testing the 0.76 zone however, this has been previously tested with a wick already established. With heavy bearish moves - price doesn't tend to whipsaw back to the original zone, but at this current moment.
Price has established itself at the current Fibonacci zero.
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
GBP NZD - tested the 0 Fibonacci and created a new imbalanceHello Traders and Analysts,
This is a quick short term update:
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Original Idea here: February 15th 2021.
Previous Update to the trade - proof the analysis is working!
June analysis:
i]Trade education
Using the Fibonacci across the 16 hour timeframe where price has created a "pullback", but what has happened here is price reached an imbalance and has fallen back towards the original imbalance as expected.
Here is the breakdown of the wedges, pennants and channels.
Finally executing - this is down to the individual.
For me - using probability at the zone in the ellipse.
Do you enjoy the setups?
10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
Team LVPA MMXXI
USD CAD - Longs positions activeHello Traders and Analysts,
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Attached to this idea I will be tracking the USD CAD and DXY.
Monthly Imbalance
Weekly Imbalances
Below are the imbalances for the weekly, where the previous low 1.19XX had provided the closing wick for the monthly candle close.
The imbalance here is key to understand the rejection and retest of the zone is highly probable.
1. Price closed and matched the May 18th 2015 weekly close - meaning the wick is successfully retested.
2. Price has now hit a pivot point and created a monthly imbalance. Looking to the weekly however, price traded a cluster of candles which shows the 'battle' printing indecision - what does this signify? Imbalance trading from buyers to sellers, sellers to buyers - as a imbalance trader - a trade will be placed here before an aggressive addition later.
Further explanation:
3. When forming a sell position rally, base rally, or in a market shift 'poising' for a bearish continued market structure, the crucial aspect here is to understand the trading range on the daily and weekly timeframe where the maximum to the pip top of the range identifies with the 1.466 to 1.469X. The significance of this here is purely the closing out of the fractal pattern completing the cycle.
Cross asset relationship between asset crosses
Purple - XAU USD
Dark Blue - US500
The reason for showing this chart here is with Canada and US both contributing to the top ten countries in output for the commodity. The Correlation of using Gold against the Standard & Poors 500 index shows the inverse of the US dollar imbalance as opposed to the SPX bullish imbalances.
Gold is on a correctional imbalance as the Metal is cross correlated using a global investor asset whereas the focus on SPX is focused on the U.S markets.
Monthly View
USD CAD relationship with US OIL and EUR USD.
Again here is another cross asset whereby Oil heavily produced by the USA and Canada a like.
The EUR USD and Oil are both on bullish imbalances, however the imbalance on EUR USD has been confirmed and identified .
Purple - EUR USD
Dark Blue - US OIL
The weekly view and monthly are key to providing inverse correlations and look for pivot , fractals on higher timeframes. In order to fully comprehend why these are crosses are key, looking into the chart shows key structural areas which on USD CAD can show a long probability. However on the Oil chart, can show an identified Selling probability.
I. Weekly view
Weekly view
Fibonacci Extension
Using this pathway build upon how the market cycle repeats, the application of the Fibonacci can be used here to plot next moves for entry areas in conjunction with the higher time frame to use the price path to reach the desired targets.
Using the imbalance and Fibonacci tool also assists with trade management in terms of open interest fee's and furthermore exposure in short term trend shifts.
Weekly - Fibonacci extension
Daily Fibonacci
The daily Fibonacci pathway shows a completion of the -0.618 target, where price is now consolidating on a smaller timeframe.
A cup and handle pattern is forming on the daily pattern.
USD CAD vs DXY
What does this show here?
Well the US Dollar has been been seeing a downward move towards a strong imbalance which aligns with the USD CAD zone on the weekly timeframe.
With the Dollar showing weakness and the DXY showing relative weakness, while yes the Dollar is weak.
This important monthly zone will set up a buy/long opportunity where price will reject and consistently create an inverted pattern for example - Head and Shoulders, bull flag. Rejection wick for a false break.
The Loonie has been trading in an exaggerated one figure rut for more than a month from 1.2035 to 1.2160 Most recently an engulfing ending Fridays trading session saw a bullish move to the upside.
With Rising oil prices, which supports the Canadian economy and dollar, are poised against the strength of the US expansion and inflation, keeping the Canadian Dollar poised for strength.
The chart below shows that a cross-asset comparison compares
USD/CAD - Grey
USOIL - Orange
AUDUSD - Pink
Dollar Index - Blue
These are based on the weekly timeframe and without adding imbalances - the price lines both have noticeable - negative correlation and align to the imbalances upon the monthly. (charted in light blue).
Do you enjoy the setups?
10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
Team LVPA MMXXI
EUR CHF - Long opportunitiesHello Traders and Analysts,
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Monthly imbalances
The 2015 low sell off closed and reverted from the low to create a new imbalance for longs to occur.
Upon the rejection - price was a clear buy upon rejection, however here the most important zone was return to retest 1.02 - 1.04 zone.
From here using the daily and awaiting confirmations - buys were to be added.
The reason, price pivot point and double retest and creating higher lows.
Weekly trendline & imbalance
The weekly trendline has been placed, price whilst climbing up to the imbalance - where price will in the long term will need to revert to.
Using the weekly while awaiting the low to create a high.
Use the Fibonacci for a safer opportunity to add a position at the 50 - 61.8%
Daily imbalance
So as is evident here the weekly and monthly imbalances - the daily has created an opportunity for longs as price has created a correctional channel, creating opportunities for shorts (to cover longs).
Price created the imbalance sell and then the bull flag has allowed price to discount itself back to an imbalance zone at a deep zone - where the Fibonacci is applied.
Here, also to note - the inefficient pricing is testing the trendline, but be aware price can retest the daily imbalance at 1.07XX-1.08XX
Be patient and trade the probability.
Fibonacci structure
Here is the completion of the bearish positional move - which is also the matching zone of the trendline at -0.618 - which is a target zone for shorts to close out - now this is a high probability for the inefficient pricing to now look for a balancing act, and create a buying imbalance from this zone,
Bull flag opportunity - combined with imbalances
Simply explained with what is happening right now.
Finally executing - this is down to the individual.
For me - using probability at the zone in the ellipse.
Do you enjoy the setups?
10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
Team LVPA MMXXI
GBP NZD - June analysis updateHello Traders and Analysts,
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Contents
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Original Idea here: February 15th 2021.
Previous Update to the trade - proof the analysis is working!
Analysis
Monthly imbalances
Price has rejected multiple times the zone with 1.81 being the lowest wick on a monthly close. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons;
1. - Price is clearly making lower highs
2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance
What is evident here?
The imbalance perfectly aligns here as price touches the price close on the monthly top reaching 2.175XX March 2020 in line with the January 2016 - where the last supply imbalance was prominent.
The candles leading up to the imbalance in January, February signify great bullish continuation closes showing a clear pathway to creating a monthly double top or at least a lower high. [The matching equal high here can be seen on the three month chart*
*
Price had to reverse from here, this is how the imbalance fill works where price perfectly reacts of a pivot point or a pricing inefficiency.
Weekly imbalances
Price has rejected the monthly zone as well as on a weekly, the weekly close is showing bullish signs as the candle closes are creating higher lows. Further to this, the price analysis of the candle sticks show a strong engulfing whipsaw of a bearish week followed by a bullish week immediately after. This shows that price action on a lower time frame will indicate that the profit taking for the sellers are transitioning the imbalance of sellers to buyers.
The gap from this zone where the imbalance has arisen, from a technical stand point gives the probability of the fresh zone on the monthly is the open target.
Cross Pair Analysis:
Understanding the cross pairs and correlation between commodity pairs
The first chart shows the weekly and monthly using the commodity pairs:
AUD JPY & CAD JPY in conjunction with NZD JPY.
The pattern of the correlation is clear - these pairs are heading towards imbalances.
Absolute correlation pairs
GBP NZD comparing against the top correlators - GBP AUD and EUR NZD on a weekly time frame against the monthly timeframe.
The idea here is provide insight as to how the pairs follow in correlation - and provide three options to trade across pairs.
Despite the GBP NZD & AUD having relatively close imbalances - the great opportunity here is to provide strong and high probability areas to set a position and trade off it.
Week imbalances using the over lay of GBP NZD imbalances - EUR NZD does not correlate as strong, however looking at the pair the weekly imbalance and monthly imbalances align with key signs of liquidity wicks which engineer the low and reject the zone.
Trade education
Using the Fibonacci across the 16 hour timeframe where price has created a "pullback", but what has happened here is price reached an imbalance and has fallen back towards the original imbalance as expected.
The correctional move has taken place here and found it's imbalance zone where price will reject.
Here is why I entered a second trade
Here is the breakdown of the wedges, pennants and channels.
Enjoy the trade - targets are based on the Fibonacci extension.
The 61.8% confirmed a breakthrough was my entry.
Do you enjoy the setups?
10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
Team LVPA MMXXI
EUR JPY - New Zone created for LongsHello traders and analysts
Below is a good recap of an analysis which was conducted back in December 2020 .
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Red = 4 Days
Yellow = 16 Hours
Orange = Daily
Dark Green = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Below is the weekly Imbalances - where the Euro has provided a clean fractal point on the monthly imbalance back between 120.00 - 122.XX JPY.
The Fibonacci sequence using a four day and daily chart showed the newly created imbalance was a pivot point at the 61.8 - 70.5% Fibonacci retrace zone. see for further charts. Imbalances have a high probability for a retest which aligns with the monthly ray, where price will look to revert to for filling the wicks upon the four day fractals.
Here is the application of using the Fibonacci extension
- where the low has been taken using the monthly imbalance zone where the 114.3X becomes the -
The high (or zero) is 127.16X where price - falters and provides a correctional using the imbalance .
Fibonacci Retracement
Here is the evidence where price has corrected using the Fibonacci retracement which has aligned the 61.8% with a great imbalance - and a upper correctional imbalance on the 38.2%
This is using the four day perspective as a probability to prove the longs/call are still in play from the monthly imbalance.
Probable scenarios - using probability applied to the imbalances and chart data.
A possible scenario - where looking left, indicates a low probability of a correctional path.
Please note - the weekly imbalance, where price has now exited - the imbalance is now a structural pivot level - where price can close back to - with a lower time frame imbalance offering a close out from sellers to allow the Bulls to 'breathe'.
Scenario 2;
Here is the Daily trendline - which accounts for a safe option as a base case scenario. Like previously stated, where wicks are occurring, price can identify this as a reversion point to pick up buy orders - as this is where imbalances lay waiting.
Price can now consolidate or make an upside move and tail off when required.
Cross correlation
Using the correlation table - and using the average of variable x - where EUR JPY is variable X
vs the average of variable Y - where CHF JPY is variable Y
Using data from the screenshot below - with the built in indicator of the correlation coefficient.
Below is the real cross asset weekly timeframe comparing the probability of imbalances - where two safe havens (CHF JPY) both indicate a new break of imbalance.
Watch the chart to see price move in our favour to the upside or sink?
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
ETH USD - short, then long. Hello analysts and traders,
Read before commenting;
Odd title, but the trend is bearish of course but the overall grand scheme of Ethereum, the imbalance has not yet reacted on the monthly - when this does, the outlook is long - subject to probability of the imbalance. The key here is to forecast here - via a pullback, sell, take profit, convert sells to longs and buyers take over.
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Red = 4 Days
Yellow = 16 Hours
Orange = Daily
Dark Green = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
This is the first publication for free regarding Ethereum cryptocurrency, this will be a full comprehensive breakdown using imbalances - on a multi time frame analysis with cross pairs.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast quick analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Below are the monthly imbalances
Firstly using the monthly timeframe, this has provided two key zones of interests for long positions.
(i) the first zone has created a perfect early opportunity where price has firstly established a high of $143X dollars and retested the low - creating an inefficiency between the high and the low. Now from the low test - price has confirmed a strong imbalance where price can now target to create an equal high.
(ii) the second zone which marks an in efficiency - is between $200 - 490, where the monthly zone had created a bearish month - by creating a pathway from the bearish candle high, notice how price closed out the previous wick on the falling pattern back in July 2018. This is the key identifier which price has re-aligned creating a fractal pattern on the weekly.
where;
(i) A bullish fractal is created when the low point is established, with two higher low bars/candles on each side of it.
(ii) A bearish fractal occurs when there is a high point with two lower high bars/candles on each side of it.
** the current picture:
Here are the weekly imbalances
Here are the three zones which are imbalances created in the past. Price is currently forming a weekly/monthly imbalance at this moment, however it is difficult to determine without a close. So longs are still activated in a buying pattern upon the long term outlook and short term outlook .
The first zone established - has been created using the previously created all time high from $1100 - $1400- the previous monthly wick has been closed out by the imbalances of the buyers and can become the lowest imbalance but also the strongest to identify where price will able to drop to in a bearish probable scenario.
the second zone is placed above - where price created a retracement from the high established.
Using the Fibonacci tool, price aligns to a low of 50% which touches the zone perfectly. This is a perfect pivot point to complete the overextension sequence using the weekly. [refer to chart ii ]
Chart ii
Price has established strong zones where price has created a bearish candle and price has reacted of this zone as expected - ultimately retesting the zone.
The upper newly established imbalance on the four day has created a retest opportunity.
The bears are coming! - which is normal as part of buying and selling imbalances.
Using the 16 hour timeframe:
Below are the sixteen hour imbalances where - price has shown a good opportunity for price to react to the following zones.
Note the top zone is a Fibonacci zone - as stated in multi timeframes above.
The true zone according to the imbalances are $3100-3500 for a opportunity to short again .
Let price fall and react accordingly to the zones. Await the opportunity for the imbalance wick to close out - where price will be successfully filled.
The reaction occurred as expected as the weekly zone below is the most important established imbalance.
The overall big picture of Fibonacci combined with the imbalances:
Note the 50% & 61.8% of the retracement zones are important here.
Eight hour candles pathway for a potential smaller time forecast
Cross pair analysis
Tracking the closest correlated coins . Ethereum, of course being the 2nd highest coin .
Key:
Bitcoin cash - Orange
Litecoin - Sky blue
Monero - Yellow
Stellar Lumens - Purple.
Using a line chart graph, you can distinctly find where price has shown a similar market structure using imbalances. Notice the pattern formation on the in the two current zones. the correlated assets are providing insights, respective to the pathway desired by price between the new imbalances.
All coins have , the extension pathway has created opportunities here to continue longs - where the weekly zones and monthly zones indicate the buying zones or profit targets for sellers in kind.
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
XAG USD - May update [Full breakdown]Hello analysts and traders,
Please see the previous chart below for Silver.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Red = 4 Days
Yellow = 16 Hours
Orange = Daily
Dark Green = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
See the original idea here:
Monthly
Here are the clear paths for silver, to provide clear indications of where price will drive from and to.
The inefficiencies are clearly marked and have previously reacted at these points in the past.
The buy zone -
price had tested the low of 2009 - at a testing of the imbalance at $11.6XX, which falls inline with the three month chart view*
With the initial first time imbalance providing a clear buying path - the opportunity here was to buy upon confirmation of the low rejection, by looking to the weekly for a confirm.
The price was showing a high probability of inefficiency, allowing the price to pivot off the bottom of the wick.
Three month view*
The zones applied here are crucial to understand the monthly and weekly zones placed on top.
Yes, the zone on the top is a huge wick - however, this had provided price to grow into the pivotal and vital zone where price has provisions to show an opportunity here for the zone to become a great opportunity to obtain a future outlook breaking said zone. What price can indicate at this moment - is a large gap for price to freely test.
See the follow up chart **
**
Weekly
the weekly imbalances have been marked - where;
1. the inefficient pricing imbalance from the low point of 2020 - which marked the test of the monthly zone, price had rejected and created a new formulated zone above, where price had created a great opportunity and highly probable long position . the relevance of this candle marked, is where price has reacted - whereby sellers are closing out positions as the price is creating long orders.
The mid zone opportunity was based on the 2014 candle formation - where, price had begun to sell off upon a retest of the sell off from 2013 monthly imbalance.
This acted as a swap zone - but created a testing of the structure for sell imbalances to look to add positions.
The top imbalance is hiding within the monthly zone. Where price had rejected the monthly zone but needed to be retested.
Price created a weekly low which allows the price to create the low. From here, allow a retest - which forms a formation lower high.
Historical Fractal
Here are two weekly fractal formations where price had created an imbalance opportunity.
Price made a low which reaches the key level desired imbalance.
Four day
Here is the current four day imbalances applied to the chart - where price currently does not have an imbalance as yet - some would consider the $29.9 zone an imbalance but looking left - the next zone looks to be a high probability at $35.XX
The current state of the market - will see price 'move' where the market determines the range - which is well established.
Price during a bear market, will provide a high probability to keep price moving up to $35 range and beyond, but keep in mind the caveat of price falling first to shake out smaller buyers.
16 Hour time frame
Here is the 16 hour time frame, where price has established the area of the imbalance at the top of the range.
Price has reacted multiple times in this zone. Now price will be looking to test this area again for a third time. Once it has now - the imbalance will become a new additional zone to keep the long positions.
Cross over assets
Here is XAU XAG with the US10years as a cross over asset.
The Yields have always been entrusted as a good indication from a macro-economic prospective.
Using the weekly chart - price has established lows - which equate to a 'bottom out' . Price created a great monthly imbalance on the monthly chart*
The low zone $45 - 30 - price moved to create a new high which is -0.618 as intended using the Fibonacci extension tool.
Using Fibonacci - the 61.8% shows that price is at a strong level to react and pivot to push towards the all time high - but extend further.
**
Adding the Vix (volatility index) on the weekly timeframe. Price has has shown the yield correlation between the VIX and Yields.
Using the XAG chart vs the gold and silver sector index - this is for correlation purposes. .
XAU VS DXY
DXY is showing a weakening further of the US dollar , but has touched upon a critical imbalance as previously analysed, comparing the imbalance upon XAU in correlation to the SPX, XAU has created an imbalance between $1670- 1730 on the monthly rejection. This imbalance here can be retested as the SPX moves towards completing the Fibonacci extension sequence and forms its new imbalance upon a monthly time frame.
DXY is critical here as it forms a strong outlook in terms of the cross correlation of other assets (shown above) to give an indication of taking the risk in account that the identified imbalance is an area of interest to monitor moves for SPX and XAU alike in respective of awaiting the next action.
Applying Fibonacci to prove the price extension target lines with the imbalance on the four day, and weekly.
Inflation - simplified:
Types of inflation
Cost-push inflation – when a rise in prices is caused by a rise in the cost of production, such as higher oil prices
Demand-pull inflation – when a rise in prices is caused by rising aggregate demand and firms pushing up prices due to the shortage of goods
The most likely scenario will be a cost push inflation scenario
Rising wages
If trades unions can present a united front then they can bargain for higher wages. Rising wages are a key cause of cost-push inflation because wages are the most significant cost for many firms. (higher wages may also contribute to rising demand)
Import prices
Using the UK as an example, where 1/3rd of all goods are imported in the UK. If there is a devaluation, then import prices will become more expensive leading to an increase in inflation. A devaluation/depreciation means the Pound is worth less to the EUR GBP, GBP USD, GBP AUD etc. Therefore the payment is more to buy the same imported goods as before, where these prices are pushed on to the consumer to keep profits, the same.
Where are we with the inflation outlook?
Currently it is uncertain, but applying using the charts above where the VIX has been supressed but should not be ignored — plus the economy has never reopened from a pandemic before — and because the way the government approaches economic policy has shifted over the past year - where the FED (US) have adopted an approach of printing and keeping rates at very low rates to obtain and justify continuing a huge bond-buying program that the Fed began at the start of the pandemic downturn. Those policies make money cheap to borrow, ultimately bolstering demand for goods and services and helping prices to rise.
Keep in mind, the federal government has drastically loosened its purse strings, spending trillions of dollars to pull the economy out of the pandemic recession. Both the fiscal and the monetary response are meant to keep households economically whole through a challenging period, so there was also a risk to having less-ambitious policies.
Watch the chart to see price move in our favour to the upside or sink?
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
ETH USD - Full analysisHere is the initial idea of what was sent to the VIP group.
hello analysts and traders,
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Red = 4 Days
Yellow = 16 Hours
Orange = Daily
Dark Green = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
This is the first publication for free regarding Ethereum cryptocurrency, this will be a full comprehensive breakdown using imbalances - on a multi time frame analysis with cross pairs.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast quick analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Below are the monthly imbalances
Firstly using the monthly timeframe, this has provided two key zones of interests for long positions.
(i) the first zone has created a perfect early opportunity where price has firstly established a high of $143X dollars and retested the low - creating an inefficiency between the high and the low. Now from the low test - price has confirmed a strong imbalance where price can now target to create an equal high.
(ii) the second zone which marks an in efficiency - is between $200 - 490, where the monthly zone had created a bearish month - by creating a pathway from the bearish candle high, notice how price closed out the previous wick on the falling pattern back in July 2018. This is the key identifier which price has re-aligned creating a fractal pattern on the weekly.
where;
(i) A bullish fractal is created when the low point is established, with two higher low bars/candles on each side of it.
(ii) A bearish fractal occurs when there is a high point with two lower high bars/candles on each side of it.
Here are the weekly imbalances
Here are the three zones which are imbalances created in the past. Price is currently forming a weekly/monthly imbalance at this moment, however it is difficult to determine without a close. So longs are still activated in a buying pattern upon the long term outlook and short term outlook .
The first zone established - has been created using the previously created all time high from $1100 - $1400- the previous monthly wick has been closed out by the imbalances of the buyers and can become the lowest imbalance but also the strongest to identify where price will able to drop to in a bearish probable scenario.
the second zone is placed above - where price created a retracement from the high established.
Using the Fibonacci tool, price aligns to a low of 50% which touches the zone perfectly. This is a perfect pivot point to complete the overextension sequence using the weekly. [refer to chart ii ]
Chart ii
Four day chart
Price has established strong zones where price has created a bearish candle and price has reacted of this zone as expected - ultimately retesting the zone.
The upper newly established imbalance on the four day has created a retest opportunity.
Daily bearish scenario
With the daily chart also showing a possible probability of price falling to the $2500 level.
where;
1. - the confirmation of the imbalance on the newly established four day and weekly align.
2. price breaks towards the $3100-200 zone.
3. confirmation of this as a swap - to confirm the overall monthly sequence. price will provide $2500 as a buying imbalance.
8 hour
Below are the eight hour imbalances, start to notice when overlaying the price on the proceeding chart where price will lock in the same zones.
This is a fractal, where the same pattern will emerge in time frames, just creating a different formation to complete the pattern.
Cross pair analysis
Tracking the closest correlated coins . Ethereum, of course being the 2nd highest coin .
Key:
Bitcoin cash - Orange
Litecoin - Sky blue
Monero - Yellow
Stellar Lumens - Purple.
Using a line chart graph, you can distinctly find where price has shown a similar market structure using imbalances. Notice the pattern formation on the in the two current zones. the correlated assets are providing insights, respective to the pathway desired by price between the new imbalances.
All coins have , the extension pathway has created opportunities here to continue longs - where the weekly zones and monthly zones indicate the buying zones or profit targets for sellers in kind.
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
XLM USD - Forecast on track Hello Traders and analysts.
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Red = 4 Days
Yellow = 16 Hours
Orange = Daily
Dark Green = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
See the previous analysis here:
XLM USD Monthly Imbalances
With a small amount of data here, where price creates a new all time high, this is considered a daily, weekly or monthly imbalance so long as price retraces back to a zone e.g. a daily imbalance candle and fills a wick upon an aligning Fibonacci level.
These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of $0.60, this was also a structural level of -0.618 Fibonacci extension .
The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around $0.60-0.41 established. While this zone is a large trading gap - the best imbalances for price levels to work from here is on the weekly, daily.
Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a all time high*, whereby $0.43 was structural point where price was, informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the daily and weekly imbalance to create correctional move.
Previous:
s3.tradingview.com
Price has now established the monthly imbalance where price will be able to correct and continue to create new all time highs.
Please note - the Monthly imbalance is wide - with respect to $0.20 cents. The reason for this is due to the scope of the imbalance on hand being established* no month thus far has provided a fractal structure to indicate the probability taking over.
Weekly imbalances
The imbalances are clear here, with two in efficiencies identified.
1. - The upper newly created all time high has provided a correctional move where the 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement is in play.
2. - The imbalance wick between $0.38 - 0.30 needed filling as part of a engineer low for the imbalance to take effect for further longs.
This was my previous analysis: March 14th.
s3.tradingview.com
Previous daily imbalances:
The Daily imbalances are showing a rally base rally correctional wave formation for those who look at wave patterns. However the path is a clear indicator of Imbalance, fresh high, imbalance fill, create a new imbalance and create a new fresh wick imbalance for price to fill and hold the market structure.
Currently price is looking to create lower lows while being squeezed out to create a low discounted imbalance change over between the sellers and buyers. Here price will be monitored for additional positions.
tradingview.com
Current Daily imbalances:
This is how the current formation is looking using the flag parallel channel formation.
While this is not a normal tool an imbalance trader would use it is a definitely insightful tool to highlight ranges which provide opportunities to add positions using the daily timeframe - where looking to buy and sell upon a rising range.
Eight hour imbalances
Here are the two imbalances price is currently ranging between.
Note price is on the upward path to retest the all time high.
Cross asset comparison using the 2 week time frame
Each asset here has produced the same formation
but with a relative price swing - which is respective to the asset in question.
Swings may be visible to "volatility" however a smaller price from $1 to 0.50 is 50% far
more dramatic than $200 to $170.
The boxed zone is an interesting pathway following ETH. As ETH provides a strong weekly and month imbalance - this will determine great pivot points of reference which align to the imbalance.
Taking a look at Ethereum and Stellar - understand the correlation pattern the two coins have are very closely correlated. Keep an eye on how the more expensive asset moves affecting Stellar.
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
BTC using probabilityHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast quick analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
See previous analysis here :
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Red = 4 Days
Yellow = 16 Hours
Orange = Daily
Dark Green = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view.
1. Zone 1:
The daily zone is where price will be looking at a test of the order block based on how the mark flows between imbalances to create the range. The current week has seen a sharp outflow of movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of $42,000. This redistribution of wealth is the transfer from impatient to patient buyers, liquidity to show bears opportunities to 'shake' Bitcoin wallets out to create a new engineered low.
2. Exactly the same development but making further lows to around $37,000 - $39,000. This zone will be a 'full retrace' upon a daily Fibonacci standpoint, however this is where the imbalance lies.
3. The true imbalance remains at $28,000 . - see BTC VS yields for this information.
Monthly Imbalances
Below are the monthly imbalances, where price has now created a monthly imbalance using the close of the high.
Price has created a nice area which has broken down to the weekly imbalance zone .
The main structure here is dependant of the pivot points upon the price closing in the zone where BTC can retest the monthly highs, creating a lower high.
The probability of these occur where price breaks using the Fibonacci rules as a second strategy.
Here is the probable paths where price can show
Fibonacci rules are still in formation on the weekly chart:
The structure is in a corrective phase here where the imbalance created will now offer an opportunity for buyers to look at the fractal zones where imbalance wicks align nicely at 61.8%. If looking to buy, confirm the buy is active with confirmation.
16 hour chart
Here is the 16hour imbalances which breakdown the imbalances to show in a smaller trading session - this timeframe removes further noise and solidifies the inefficient imbalance of the supply and demand strategy.
The 16hour here shows the 40k is a great area where the price has a high probability of becoming a rejection fractal.
This zone here is a completion of a higher time frame fractal.
Combined with the Daily imbalance
Using the Fibonacci tool - the daily level shows us the 50% and the 61.8% retracement zones. Looking at the 16 hour, the zones align.
The corrective process here shows a good opportunity for buying opportunities to the patient.
BTC VS VIX
The Volatility index is always an interesting measure, where the Vix
Screenshot below to show the monthly relationship of the price closing.
The volume profile added to the Vix shows here where;
orange = value area up
Blue = value area down
*showing the buyers, sellers upon the imbalance of the newly all time high.
As described on the chart - the key zone here is the correction which aligns on the 2 week imbalance rectangle where price can revert to to provide a key positional move upwards to continue the buyers imbalance.
US Treasury volatility - not to be ignored by Crypto:
Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence.
Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the indexes also which will impact the imbalances of Crypto currencies.
BTC vs ETH:
Notice the imbalance pattern?
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
GBP JPY - imbalance awaitsHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Once price hits the imbalance an update will be provided and the re-analysed zone will be subject to short.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Previous analysis updates are below:
155 Price target
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Red = 4 Days
Yellow = 16 Hours
Orange = Daily
Dark Green = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Monthly imbalances:
Price has rejected the previous all time low of GBP JPY. It is important to note here as to why this area on the low is so significant.
This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons;
1. - Price is clearly making lower highs
2. - The monthly wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance - with clear evidence of a engineered liquidity wick rejection.
Weekly Imbalances
The reason for buying in at this level is simply due to the imbalance being filled on the weekly at 140.5-70, this zone was the top of a trading range where patience is required here for a Fibonacci retracement back to 137 zone. Upon a rejection to 136.80+ a buy would be prominent.
Keeping the outlook in perspective is the key to buying on a higher timeframe, more aligns and there is less noise to worry about regarding reversals, trading ranges.
The reason behind the entry point here at 137.80
The monthly and weekly imbalances above the buy zone at 136.69 are geared for longs as the imbalance is yet again filled.
Daily Imbalances:
Now that 152 target has been reached - this is now in a weekly and daily imbalance where price will look to use the previous daily and weekly former imbalance to create a range for one final push into the next zone .
From here price will be monitored watching the all important weekly imbalance at the top of the structural move.
The daily imbalances in have been patient levels to signify buys. - Previous analysis has provided clear indicators as to why these are buying opportunities.
Price will fluctuate back to a low of 148, to regain liquidity measures and false breakout the sellers will be trapped with further imbalance buy power.
Profit taking
As mentioned in the previous analysis 150, 152, 154 are even numbers to take partial profits.
From this trade, profits have been taken leaving a small ending balance to follow through with smaller imbalances maintaining the open interest swaps.
Cross correlations between GBP USD, XAU USD
The price chart here signifies what GBP USD is doing, where the dollar is correcting against the pound from an imbalance level at 1. 40 - price is now in a correctional phase, awaiting a buy move, therefore GBP JPY with a strong inverse, is also experiencing the same inverse phase.
The 16 hour chart above shows some key levels marked by the Yellow line markings show the correlation between the asset prices using GBP as a positive and XAU as a negative. The correlation will vary between time frames, but in terms of the way the range works, this ignores noisy data on the lower time frames and highlights different imbalances which match up using the four day and weekly crossing of imbalances.
Current cross analysis
Here is the current analysis using the four day view and the monthly chart to see the rise of the Pound Sterling against the cross pairs as well as the correctional move for Gold.
Here is the multi-time frame analysis showing the eight hour imbalance currently being filled. The probability for this to continue moving toward the range top is clearly on the side of the move completion.
Fibonacci pathway
in which price is following smoothly since the low with a great test of the 50% retracement as expected.
There pivot points are clear with the imbalances and align in the historical data where 'whipsaw' effects occur, this is showing a clear indication of an imbalance and fractal pattern creating the fresh level.
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
NZD JPY Imbalance awaits. Hello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to the long term structure offering a reactional level upon the imbalance. Price is still creating higher highs and completing the sequence to create a "fresh level" but in actual fact this is an imbalance.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Previous update -
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Red = 4 Days
Yellow = 16 Hours
Orange = Daily
Dark Green = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
NZD JPY Monthly imbalances
Using the monthly time frame, it is clear to identify the buying imbalance and selling imbalance here.
At this moment in time, there is no opportunity to sell as price has not yet reacted to the zones in place.
The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 81.30- 84 JPY established. While this zone is a large trading gap - the best imbalances for price levels to work from here is on the weekly, daily.
Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in March 2020 created an imbalance low, whereby the yen was showing strength from a fundamental perspective of the safe haven. The low of 59.3 NZD to JPY was a structural low point where price indicated two key criteria;
1. Informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the daily and weekly imbalance to create correctional move.
2. The key zone here is price hitting a monthly imbalance block at the structural low using the three month chart*
what is evident here?
The imbalance perfectly aligns here as price touches the price close on the three month as assigned on the far left with the green arrow.
The second fill which occurred January 2020, touched the same zone between 59.30-59.50 NZD JPY.
Price had to reverse from here, this is how the imbalance fill works where price perfectly reacts of a pivot point.
Three month chart*
Monthly chart
Weekly imbalance plan
From a weekly perspective, there has been a great opportunity to buy in for the positional buyers and within the 68.00 - 69.80 zone. There reason for this zones important is due to two reasons;
1. Price aligns with the weekly low referring to June 2016 imbalance sell rejection.
2. When forming a rally, base rally, or in a market shift 'poising' for a bullish continued market structure, the crucial aspect here is to understand the trading range on the daily and weekly timeframe where the maximum to the pip top of the range identifies with the 71.96-72.00. The significance of this here is purely the closing out of the fractal pattern completing the cycle .
Screenshot two - Fractal completion.
This shows the clear pattern that price will be 'broken' to create a new high here.
I. The low has been confirmed by the previous weekly touch of the candle wick high. - this nets off.
II. The body low has been netted by the wick high.
Fibonacci pathway
Using the daily timeframe, the application of the Fibonacci can be used here to plot next moves for entry areas in conjunction with the higher time frame to use the price path to reach the desired targets.
Using the imbalance and Fibonacci tool also assists with trade management in terms of open interest fee's and furthermore exposure in short term trend shifts.
The outcome from the Fibonacci extension tool.
This has been used for demonstration purposes for the analysis, however the technique in place here is how the top down analysis is predicted and executed.
Daily imbalance levels
The levels are clearly identified, using the main criteria from the monthly and weekly imbalances.
The levels on the daily take time to develop. Plot and assess upon price volatility and also the probability of the trade shifting direction , or in some cases, long term - dependant of the imbalance cycle*
Understanding the cross pairs and correlation between commodity pairs
The first chart shows the weekly and monthly using the commodity pairs:
AUD JPY & CAD JPY in conjunction with NZD JPY.
The pattern of the correlation is clear - these pairs are heading towards imbalances.
The second chart provides key data for the weekly and monthly using the major pair currencies*
GBP JPY is considered a minor pair - but with the correlation of XAU and commodity pairs the GBP also is a major pair so in this case with considered, it is analysed for the performance.
Using the cross asset of NZD JPY vs XAU USD, while cross referencing VIX and US 10 year yields.
The basis behind this, is to use the risk based approach of the NZD being a commodity currency where a produce of Gold and the correlation between the strength of the NZD and XAU in a 'risk on' approach. Particularly for the NZD using the imbalances as reference points.
The use of variable instruments of the VIX and 10 year US yields are due to the 'risk off' scenario plan.
Note;
I VIX and 10 year - spikes in session Fundamental decisions do not necessarily result in a 'jolt' in the price on every occasion. This opens the door to a strong positional buying opportunity and openness to credit risk take on.
II. The capitulation waters here on the economic cycle is ever present where buyers and sellers in the short term are profit taking and engineering liquidity from the transfer from the impatient to patient traders.
Volume profile:
Here is an important level at the monthly and weekly imbalance. Notice the sell volume taking over .
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US OIL - Weekly imbalance still activeHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
A bullish scenario is needed, as well as a bearish , this is a game of patience.
For further charts - refer to the previous analysis with cross asset screenshots
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Monthly Imbalances
Price has currently filled a monthly imbalance, with a new fresh imbalance zone awaiting price action to occur. The probabilities are strong here for price to enter into this zone, purely based on the candle wick which has been confirmed from February 2021. The wick on the lower time frames has provided evidence of this reaching a fractal point at $59.20 per barrel. . Price had created an engineered low, for the shakeout of the sellers who are looking for sells of the fresh "high". Note, on the daily, the trend line is well respected with the three soldier candle pattern 'identified as a sell off", however, this is a perfect opportunity to add a long.
The monthly imbalance - is still showing the respective low as explained above. The price of oil has continued to show it's strength reaching the next liquidity wick fill at $66.34-54. Now, the next important imbalance zone is yet to be breached and tested. Price can now create a fresh test of the monthly chart, applying as to what the structure on the monthly is showing is, the price can have a high probability of moving back to $60.00 - $62 zone to create a solid rally base rally formation setup.
s3.tradingview.com
Weekly Imbalances applied:
Bearish Weekly Scenario:
Where price is now entering a fresh imbalance - this is a great opportunity to close out long positions which have been held in a shorter run up or simply close out profits to de-risk and transfer the risk by offsetting shorts.
Why? - Simply put, fresh zone is a clear opportunity for the imbalance to occur. The imbalance will be closed out and the market structure will offer a new opportunity. Price can dramatically collapse again with a strong supply, however where price is still showing "long". Oil can be sold off to weekly imbalances or in a worst case scenario to the below Blue, monthly imbalance.
Weekly Imbalances - still active zones.
The Weekly imbalance provides a good indicator her where price can create a weekly supply or sellers imbalance as the zone is a fresh touch. The probability of price retracing from the newly created high, is a strong possibility. However, as there is a zone higher, Oil can still use this imbalance as a base, to create strong price action floating within a range of $67-60 per Barrel. Look into the smaller time frames for pivot points assessing the risk of entering a trade.
s3.tradingview.com
Eight hour Fibonacci, imbalance
Below are the eight hour imbalances, where a great structure has taken place to provide an opportunity for the base to built upon. The imbalance here will attract the short sellers and scalpers and hedged sellers to cover longs. However the 50% retrace zone aligns perfectly to a strong indicator of where Fibonacci lines mock up a solid alert to monitor the minor inefficiency taking place here. however be aware for the weekly zone below this is only a short term hedge for buys to capture both sides of the trade.
Price will have a high probability to fall towards $58-59 per barrel.
Daily imbalance - for a simplified view
Again the imbalance of the monthly aligns with the daily low, so take into account here a inflow opportunity for the building up of a buying imbalance at around $59-60. XX then initiate a buy order.
Understanding the context behind Oil with the "disastrous" negative price of the Oil futures crash.
2020-2021.
We have seen a nice impulse into the channel and a rejection upon reaching the trendline at $53.00
Good question, based on the fact - from a technical standpoint - the sell off back in February, March 2020 - reversed on a fractal point within the market structure to the crisis of Oil supply being heavy weighted in comparison to the demand . The spike to zero was the abundance of supply which effectively the storage supply became over saturated and "worthless", the May contracts were not accepted for physical delivery and the paying for the delivery took place to prevent further storage.
This imbalance was created in which created the impulse. Price re-established itself with $30-36 zone for a further imbalance where price will now look to as a strong demand for price engineering if needed.
See the charts here -
Understanding the Fundamentals behind the Supply, Demand & Future Supply through inflation of cause and effect.
Oil prices and levels of inflation are often seen as being connected in a cause-and-effect relationship. Simply put with oil current at $66.00 per barrel, as oil prices move up, inflation—which is the measure of general price trends throughout the economy—follows in the same direction resulting in a higher overall price.
Keep in mind, as the price of oil falls, inflationary pressures start to ease.
Producer Price Index
This is a measurement of the rate of change in prices of said commodity , where the change in prices of the products sold is measured by the producer. The exclusion of Tax, trade margins and transport cost which are all variables a buyer of a physical will have to burden.
The PPI is a average movement of price, which are subsequently tracked by the economic indicators dealing with the price fluctuations end users have to pay at the end of the supply line.
Below is the inflation ETF vs Oil - providing some crucial cause and effect over the future supply of Oil and where price is overall moving towards, again use inefficiency in the market.
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XRP - Fell as expectedA Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Previous Analysis
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Below is the outlined top down analysis for the XRP update. Please read and understand the imbalances and take into account the possible zones for new buys, sells, keeping in mind the imbalance in play - currently - long/bullish.
Monthly imbalances:
The three identified zones are in place here to provide the key areas for where price will look to consolidate before the continuation pattern completes.
Price has now broken through the monthly zone . The price will now look to tail off to fall back between $1.21 - 0.84.
The price here has been creating higher high with the closes on the monthly candle.
The information here price has been informing imbalance buyers is that the big opportunity here is clear to gear up for a buying imbalance.
The weekly imbalances
The weekly zones are outlined and sit above the monthly, as these act as reversion points for the buying and selling imbalances.
The very strong imbalance between $0.26-0.24 shows the great opportunity for longs only, it was just a case of buying in, and when price reverted back to test the low as these newly established trading ranges offer. A clear opportunity to add is recognised here - *subject to higher timeframe whereby closes are filling the wicks and rejecting the monthly.
Two key criteria to follow here:
I Price has placed a key weekly whipsaw effect from the initial formation of the price inefficiency.
II The consequence of this pair being the most liquid is testing the previous imbalance upon the motion of a risk scenario where price becomes a controlled shift of price inefficiency.
The monthly reference here shows four candles of interest whereby consecutive months have resulted in large wicks where price has created the imbalance required.
Daily chart - see idea link published 16th April 2021 above for updated chart:
See the daily imbalances applied - here patience will be required to wait for the clear sell off to occur as price will have created a reversion point on the daily time frame, this will offer discount to the awaiting buyers. Here is also an opportunity to short - for hedging.
Fibonacci retracement tool - zone alignments
The two outlined zones are clear indicators of where shorts will be good areas to take profits if you so wish.
And also additional buy points.
Price will need to close in the desired zone and infill the imbalance upon the four day, weekly timeframe* use these as references.
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SPX reaches target extension 1Hello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast quick analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
See the original below:
This will provide a good explanation with multiple charts and views which give enough evidence to create the possibility of the targets reaching the Fibonacci over extended pattern.
Analysis for 2021 outlook.
Multi-time frame analysis overview:
Weekly time frame of imbalance analysis:
Here is the weekly imbalances taking effect of the over extended Fibonacci sequence.
Here is the monthly timeframe:
While the 4K is a newly created all time high, the imbalance will now become a great area to exchange price action between the buyers and sellers.
Price has now created the interesting inefficient pricing leaving a long imbalance short effect, this will require patience while the sequence is completed for the Selling imbalance to take place.
Cross asset analysis:
Where are we with the Inflation ETF - RINF VS SPX?
An update below shows the positive correlation still maintaining structure.
Note- The Fibonacci sequence here shows the RINF - but the completion sequence aligns with 4,200+ zone where price will look to have created a new imbalance zone - whilst this is being created - assess the probabilities for the next part of the sequence.
EEM vs SPX
What does the emerging markets show us?
Well the imbalances are within the same as the US market, but the economic recovery in terms of imbalance price driving in the EEM - shows that whilst fundamentally there is more volatility . The activeness of these markets provides a telling Fibonacci extension target is not to dissimilar along with the SPX .
Beware of XAU , XAG - currently lagging behind upon a large correctional imbalance move as inflation remains low, plus the imbalance zone not ready yet for action to be taken.
Vix vs SPX
Do not forget about the VIX, the volatility index is currently at low levels within a monthly imbalance and creating a good sense of fractal movements within the lower time frames for example, the daily and 16 hour timeframes. Price is showing a good probability of supressed capitulation waters, in relation to the Fibonacci sequence - SPX will nearly or complete the move to $4360 est. and then the VIX will grow an increasing sign of bullish probability based on high inefficiency.
XAU USD vs DXY
DXY is showing a weakening further of the US dollar, but has touched upon a critical imbalance as previously analysed, comparing the imbalance upon XAU in correlation to the SPX, Xau has created an imbalance between $1700 - 1670 on the monthly rejection. This imbalance here can be retested as the SPX moves towards completing the Fibonacci extension sequence and forms its new imbalance upon a monthly time frame.
DXY is critical here as it forms a strong outlook in terms of the cross correlation of other assets (shown above) to give an indication of taking the risk in account that the identified imbalance is an area of interest to monitor moves for SPX and XAU alike in respective of awaiting the next action.
Excluded - Yields, Fed funds DXY - in depth
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BTC weekly imbalance - new longsHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast quick analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
See previous analysis here:
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view.
1. Zone 1:
The daily zone is where price will be looking at a test of the order block based on how the mark flows between imbalances to create the range. The current week has seen a sharp outflow of movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of $42,000. This redistribution of wealth is the transfer from impatient to patient buyers, liquidity to show bears opportunities to 'shake' Bitcoin wallets out to create a new engineered low.
2. Exactly the same development but making further lows to around $37,000 - $39,000. This zone will be a 'full retrace' upon a daily Fibonacci standpoint, however this is where the imbalance lies.
3. The true imbalance remains at $28,000 . - see BTC VS yields for this information.
Fibonacci rules are still in formation on the weekly chart:
US Treasury volatility - not to be ignored by Crypto:
Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence.
Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the indexes also which will impact the imbalances of Crypto currencies.
BTC vs ETH:
Notice the imbalance pattern?
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CHF JPY - Weekly testHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Four day view
The four day chart has provided key information with a great opportunity to highlight the sell area using the Fibonacci tool as a confirmation. Ideally to show a true confirmation - price would look to fill the wick of long legged wick which breaks the scarlet zone . This will show where price should look to before selling.
The zone is clear here where price will react before the sell imbalance probability takes over.
Weekly imbalances
The weekly imbalances are here to provide the clear view from where price will have considerable tail offs as sellers take over from the buyers.
The reason for the key weekly zones forming under the monthly is where lower highs have taken place meaning that the monthly imbalance and price cannot offer a retest of said zone.
Monthly Imbalances
The monthly imbalances are clearly laid out which present the high and low of the imbalance, the top imbalance has not entirely been tested where a monthly close has tested the 119 - 124 zone, however this being said. Price has reverted to test the Weekly imbalance where price has successfully filled the wick in August 2014 which is where looking left the entire weekly zone has build the structure from.
Cross Pair Analysis
Using the cross pair analysis using the basis of
USD CHF - Orange
EUR SGD - Purple
The weekly chart shows the relationship using the positive correlated pair against an the USD CHF a major pair with negative correlation. The imbalances are not shown here, however the key takeaway from the chart here is to understand what the USD is doing and the other major is having an inverse imbalance at the present moment. Although CHF JPY are fundamentally two safe haven currencies - the aligned weekly cross sectional zone shows scope for a negative imbalance probability for CHF JPY.
Using solely CHFJPY & USDCHF adding imbalances shows a simplified view of imbalances where price can show USD CHF next imbalance zone where price will climb to and CHF JPY inverse.
Sell position entry points
Using the 4 day Fibonacci tool, a retracement is required where a nice liquidity wick will need to be filled.
This will be a key area to monitor for shorts as a double weekly test is highly probable.
Possible entries
Now that price has tested the "0" Fibonacci creating a bottom, price has created over the last few days some wicks but created an engulfing candle - price will now to look to close the wick fill and move towards 118.60 - where a double top formation has occurred.
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XRP - 2021 April updateHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
See the previous tracking here:
- short term analysis
Below is the outlined top down analysis for the XRP update. Please read and understand the imbalances and take into account the possible zones for new buys, sells, keeping in mind the imbalance in play - currently - long/bullish.
Monthly imbalances:
The three identified zones are in place here to provide the key areas for where price will look to consolidate before the continuation pattern completes.
Price has now broken through the monthly zone . The price will now look to tail off to fall back between $1.21 - 0.84.
The price here has been creating higher high with the closes on the monthly candle.
The information here price has been informing imbalance buyers is that the big opportunity here is clear to gear up for a buying imbalance.
The weekly imbalances
The weekly zones are outlined and sit above the monthly, as these act as reversion points for the buying and selling imbalances.
The very strong imbalance between $0.26-0.24 shows the great opportunity for longs only, it was just a case of buying in, and when price reverted back to test the low as these newly established trading ranges offer. A clear opportunity to add is recognised here - *subject to higher timeframe whereby closes are filling the wicks and rejecting the monthly.
Putting the four day and weekly chart together
with reference to the price finding an inefficiency on the weekly time frame - the pattern formed showed strong wicks and reversals occurring as price action takes affect.
The inefficiencies here are tested but the sellers are now removed and buying imbalances are in place.
There has been great opportunities to short from the weekly imbalance to maximise potential upon hedging or purely aggressively selling from +$0.60 zone as the weekly pattern completed. Conversely, this is short lived as the fresh zone is always retested with XRP as the higher weekly lows show a steady formation.
Two key criteria to follow here:
I Price has placed a key weekly whipsaw effect from the initial formation of the price inefficiency.
II The consequence of this pair being the most liquid is testing the previous imbalance upon the motion of a risk scenario where price becomes a controlled shift of price inefficiency.
The monthly reference here shows four candles of interest whereby consecutive months have resulted in large wicks where price has created the imbalance required.
Cross asset analysis:
Using the weekly time frame, XRP is lagging behind the two correlated pairs - however is offering large scope for new zones for smaller imbalances.
OMGNetwork - Black
Tezos - Green
These two coins move with a very strong positive correlation - whereby price
Fibonacci retracement tool - zone alignments
The two outlined zones are clear indicators of where shorts will be good areas to take profits if you so wish.
And also additional buy points.
Price will need to close in the desired zone and infill the imbalance upon the four day, weekly timeframe* use these as references.
Do you enjoy the setups?
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Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
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XAG Update Hello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
See the original idea here:
Use the weekly imbalances as a reference
Check the monthly to confirm what you are seeing
Eight hour imbalances applied
Four day analysis
Keep track off the bigger picture;
use XAU, XAG correlation
Do you enjoy the setups?
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Focus on technical output not fundamentals
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Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.