Get started

Lupacapital

GBP AUD - New zone, new buyHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Original analysis process. Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view. 1. Zone 1: - 1.72 - 1.75 we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows. From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs. A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie. 2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development. We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps. Moving to now... Monthly imbalances: Pretty simple breakdown from a monthly perspective, where GBP maxed out in March 2020 and began the sellers imbalance to reach lows of 1.742 as previously stated above. From a buying retrace imbalance - the targets are set at the 1.87 mark and 1.93 the next target. From a positional buy into 2022 if the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement permits the target and holds above, then extension of 2.0X will be looked towards. Weekly imbalance While the GBP and Aussie is trading within a defined range - adding more positions on the range lows are pivotal here to maintain the long position. The weekly position now is clear with the daily candle to close within the Weekly, the probability to continue the rally base rally is evident. Closely correlated pairs GBP NZD and EUR AUD weekly chart and monthly chart respectively using correlation and imbalances. Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. See the AUD USD chart here for further updates. The DXY is pivotal DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. SPX vs AUD USD - with an importance note of GBP AUD. The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. Pre-march Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence. Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
EUR USD - trade updateHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the original idea here: Updated idea here Euro USD monthly imbalances These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 1.25 to be a structural level for the Euro against the Dollar. The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 1.235XX. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a lower high, informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone. Breakout traders will be looking for a quick scalp and also hedging traders will be in place here. Euro - Weekly imbalances The weekly and monthly imbalance are both here within the same zone, therefore the zone is marked with a monthly inefficiency zone. Looking at the weekly it is clear this zone is a strong imbalance zone where just like the USD JPY - the monthly zones have shown a great amount of respect. Subject to the weekly higher low which took place, the hammer signal here on the weekly indicates a great opportunity to understand that the sell off is beginning. EURO Daily and Weekly chart side by side Using the daily and weekly structure – the move was identified early – with reference to the price finding an inefficiency on the monthly time frame, referring to the high firstly at 1.254XX. Why will traders look to sell here? – It is a simple buy trap for retail traders and scalpers. Traders in the short term can win big and of course anything is possible in trading. The pattern which has clearly emerged though from my analysis shows I Price has placed a key weekly whipsaw effect from the initial formation of the price inefficiency. II The consequence of this pair being the most liquid is testing the previous imbalance upon the motion of a risk scenario where price becomes a controlled shift of price inefficiency. The monthly reference here shows four candles of interest whereby consecutive months have resulted in large wicks where price has created the imbalance required. snapshot US Bonds yield curve, accelerating the USD first U.S. bond yields gauging performance of the U.S. stock market, thereby reflecting the demand for the U.S. dollar in subsequence. Where investors move away from stocks and other high-risk investments, the new increased demand for “less-risky instruments” such as U.S. bonds and the safe-haven U.S. dollar pushes their prices higher against respective pairs. However, when it comes to the EUR USD - the Euro will show its weakness with the Remember: A rising bond yield is dollar appreciation. A falling bond yield is dollar devaluation snapshot Mirrors Edge EXY Vs DXY - looking here at the Euro Currency Index and the Dollar Currency Index, price has established some very defined levels - which have been marked in Purple - Refer to Master key for zone colours. With the impact of the DXY - the jaws are looking to close here, from a technical standpoint clear fresh movements are foreseeable with the probability of positional holds for Dollar buys and Euro sales based upon the chart. So long as price reverts back to a clear higher low formation on the EUR USD and respectively on the EXY with the DXY creating a defined point of higher lows, then the holds are clear to the imbalances stated. snapshot Correlation: USD CHF - Green Look closely on the weekly imbalances - where price has created two opportunistic weekly imbalances where profits will be taken . USD CHF will a an inverse trade, however taking this can double exposure so ensure one pair is traded here. snapshot Trade update: Probability for the next trade using the eight hour time frame. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Short
by LupaCapital
1
GBP NZD - buying imbalance updateHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Original Idea here: February 15th 2021. Monthly imbalances Price has rejected multiple times the zone with 1.81 being the lowest wick on a monthly close. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance What is evident here? The imbalance perfectly aligns here as price touches the price close on the monthly top reaching 2.175XX March 2020 in line with the January 2016 - where the last supply imbalance was prominent. The candles leading up to the imbalance in January, February signify great bullish continuation closes showing a clear pathway to creating a monthly double top or at least a lower high. [The matching equal high here can be seen on the three month chart* * Price had to reverse from here, this is how the imbalance fill works where price perfectly reacts of a pivot point or a pricing inefficiency. Weekly imbalances Price has rejected the monthly zone as well as on a weekly, the weekly close is showing bullish signs as the candle closes are creating higher lows. Further to this, the price analysis of the candle sticks show a strong engulfing whipsaw of a bearish week followed by a bullish week immediately after. This shows that price action on a lower time frame will indicate that the profit taking for the sellers are transitioning the imbalance of sellers to buyers. The gap from this zone where the imbalance has arisen, from a technical stand point gives the probability of the fresh zone on the monthly is the open target. Daily Imbalance pathway The Kiwi Dollar has a focused pathway, using the four day trendline The current possible imbalances are marked and align with the price targets where price will look to reject using a Fibonacci extension tool to form the range where price will bounce between. The Kiwi being the minor pair, has sensitivity far more volatile than the Pound Sterling. From a Daily imbalance perspective. I.// Price is creating a higher low - keeping the trendline in take. II.// The monthly imbalance acts a strong support base for the long term positional holders. Four hour buy zone confirmation Cross Pair Analysis: Understanding the cross pairs and correlation between commodity pairs The first chart shows the weekly and monthly using the commodity pairs: AUD JPY & CAD JPY in conjunction with NZD JPY. The pattern of the correlation is clear - these pairs are heading towards imbalances. Absolute correlation pairs GBP NZD comparing against the top correlators - GBP AUD and EUR NZD on a weekly time frame against the monthly timeframe. The idea here is provide insight as to how the pairs follow in correlation - and provide three options to trade across pairs. Despite the GBP NZD & AUD having relatively close imbalances - the great opportunity here is to provide strong and high probability areas to set a position and trade off it. Week imbalances using the over lay of GBP NZD imbalances - EUR NZD does not correlate as strong, however looking at the pair the weekly imbalance and monthly imbalances align with key signs of liquidity wicks which engineer the low and reject the zone. Buy zone Between 1.906 - 1.916 if price retraces to this zone again. Despite this being a 100pip zone, the confirmation of this range from a personal perspective is necessary. Looking to hedge accordingly with weekly imbalances at the top to close out potential 'losses' and retain fee maintenance. Targets The price targets set are GBP NZD 2.08 + - with a longer term final profit target of 2.15. Why? Because this is where our imbalance wick fill is. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
1
CHF JPY - Awaiting sell offHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Four day view The four day chart has provided key information with a great opportunity to highlight the sell area using the Fibonacci tool as a confirmation. Ideally to show a true confirmation - price would look to fill the wick of long legged wick which breaks the scarlet zone . This will show where price should look to before selling. The zone is clear here where price will react before the sell imbalance probability takes over. Weekly imbalances The weekly imbalances are here to provide the clear view from where price will have considerable tail offs as sellers take over from the buyers. The reason for the key weekly zones forming under the monthly is where lower highs have taken place meaning that the monthly imbalance and price cannot offer a retest of said zone. Monthly Imbalances The monthly imbalances are clearly laid out which present the high and low of the imbalance, the top imbalance has not entirely been tested where a monthly close has tested the 119 - 124 zone, however this being said. Price has reverted to test the Weekly imbalance where price has successfully filled the wick in August 2014 which is where looking left the entire weekly zone has build the structure from. Cross Pair Analysis Using the cross pair analysis using the basis of USD CHF - Orange EUR SGD - Purple The weekly chart shows the relationship using the positive correlated pair against an the USD CHF a major pair with negative correlation. The imbalances are not shown here, however the key takeaway from the chart here is to understand what the USD is doing and the other major is having an inverse imbalance at the present moment. Although CHF JPY are fundamentally two safe haven currencies - the aligned weekly cross sectional zone shows scope for a negative imbalance probability for CHF JPY. Using solely CHFJPY & USDCHF adding imbalances shows a simplified view of imbalances where price can show USD CHF next imbalance zone where price will climb to and CHF JPY inverse. Sell position ready Here is two possible sell scenarios Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
3
LINK USD - Trade updateHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. See the previous Link here for the original analysis: Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly imbalances: The amount of data here is not a huge amount but the Fibonacci sequence has already completed a extension pattern on a monthly timeframe and provided imbalances which helps distinguish zones of probabilities where price can offer sell positions and respective buy positions. 1. The $36 high to $24 is a huge imbalance at the current moment but when aligning the price position creating an all time high. Price will reject here due to the newly created zone, where the imbalance of sellers will take over and created a lower correctional zone in a previous monthly imbalance or weekly. . From a Fibonacci viewpoint. The monthly zone creation at $20.00 provided the first opportunity for a correctional move down to the weekly imbalance fill between $8.95 to $4.5 dollars, however, using the Fibonacci tool - the imbalance fill is at the top of the zone where correctional moves have used the pivot reference of 61.8% as the optimal zone for probabilities for positional buying. Here, the imbalance has been filled with the monthly July 2020 imbalance filled with a net close out from the sellers, signifying to buyers - the price ladder is now inefficient with sellers and buyers can take over. Weekly Imbalances The weekly imbalances have been previously tested, where the weekly imbalance candle provided a "breather" upon the bullish impulse move. Price created a fractal point offering buyers a discounted opportunity to create a base zone. Price has re-tested this imbalance and filled the liquidity wick. The latest re-test has successfully filled in the imbalance at $23.7XX where price has rejected again and showed a highly favoured probability to become bullish further. Daily imbalances The new daily imbalances are in place offering a strong opportunity for price to show an opportunity to add a position. The latest daily imbalance has been rejected by the sellers and now in control with the buyers. The daily trendline pattern 'X' offers a cross opportunity to add a position upon a breakout of the trend, however, the real addition zone here is once $29.3 is successfully filled. The cross analysis between relevant Crypto coins: Key: Red = XTZ USD Orange = ETH USD Ethereum Purple = OMG USD OMG Network Using the comparison of what assets move in sync with this, it is clear that Etherium, OMG and Tezos have clear correlation with Chainlink within 0.9+ positive correlation. Other comparable assets are EOS which is noticeably picking up traction towards creating a new imbalance. The defined zones can be outlined in separate screens for defined imbalances - this is just to show the correlative aspect of where price is driving towards - i.e a monthly imbalance zone re-test. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:LINKUSDLong
by LupaCapital
1
GBP JPY - Buy updateHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the previous analysis here Original buy here. Monthly imbalances: Price has rejected the previous all time low of GBP JPY. It is important to note here as to why this area on the low is so significant. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The monthly wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance - with clear evidence of a engineered liquidity wick rejection. Weekly Imbalances The reason for buying in at this level is simply due to the imbalance being filled on the weekly at 140.5-70, this zone was the top of a trading range where patience is required here for a Fibonacci retracement back to 137 zone. Upon a rejection to 136.80+ a buy would be prominent. Keeping the outlook in perspective is the key to buying on a higher timeframe, more aligns and there is less noise to worry about regarding reversals, trading ranges. The reason behind the entry point here at 137.80 The monthly and weekly imbalances above the buy zone at 136.69 are geared for longs as the imbalance is yet again filled. Daily Imbalances: Now that 152 target has been reached - this is now in a weekly and daily imbalance where price will look to use the previous daily and weekly former imbalance to create a range for one final push into the next zone . From here price will be monitored watching the all important weekly imbalance at the top of the structural move. The daily imbalances in have been patient levels to signify buys. - Previous analysis has provided clear indicators as to why these are buying opportunities. Price will fluctuate back to a low of 148, to regain liquidity measures and false breakout the sellers. Profit taking As mentioned in the previous analysis 150, 152, 154 are even numbers to take partial profits. From this trade, profits have been taken leaving a small ending balance to follow through with smaller imbalances maintaining the open interest swaps. Cross correlations between GBP USD, XAU USD The price chart here signifies what GBP USD is doing, where the dollar is correcting against the pound from an imbalance level at 1. 40 - price is now in a correctional phase, awaiting a buy move, therefore GBP JPY with a strong inverse, is also experiencing the same inverse phase. Current cross analysis Here is the current analysis using the four day view and the monthly chart to see the rise of the Pound Sterling against the cross pairs as aswell as the correctional move for Gold. Data Range shows entries Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
1
USD JPY - Rollercoaster updateOriginal idea is here; or a full breakdown. Quick analysis to understand why this trade was taken and how it was analysed. Monthly imbalances for USD JPY These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 100.00 to be a structural level for the USD. The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 100-102. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a higher low, informing that the buyers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone. Daily Fibonacci Currently price is heading to -0.272, before an opportunity for the trend in most scenarios to take a breather, where price will look towards the 8hour imbalance zone. Price has become bullish with a mounting risk of the VIX and the safe haven of both the USD and JPY. The technical aspect here is price will need to engineer a long movement so when coming to a pivotal point on the Fibonacci extension target, price will react here, allowing discounted buy opportunities. Weekly structure forming of the monthly imbalance Entries: Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
AUD USD - Trade update forward to AprilHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. A bullish scenario is needed, as well as a bearish, this is a game of patience. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous analysis: link here: The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first, using a a daily Fibonacci on the daily chart, the price levels of this very strong strength from the Australian Dollar, the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% is a strong possibility which has now been proved as price action here tapped 0.772 zone and consolidated while still making higher lows - giving confidence of confluence here rising to the monthly imbalance. The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. The plan since the original analysis, price has been bullish and driving towards the 0.80 mark as expected. beating the analysis prediction at an early scenario by 1 week. Monthly imbalances Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD USD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. Weekly time frame Imbalances The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.80 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price. The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios; 1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation . 2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to sell again. Weekly Fibonacci level using the high to the low - the retrace shows the opportunity at 0.618 or 61.8% - this also aligns next to the monthly "edge" however, looking left the wick highs failed to close inside 0.785XX, which means the rejection upon this level provides a perfect opportunity for a second sell position for a positional or weekly swing sell. SPX vs AUDUSD The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. Yields: Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence. Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation. DXY criteria: DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. Correlation: Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. See the GBP AUD chart here for further updates. Gold production as the Aussie is a commodity currency. Gold discounted offering See here for the imbalances on Gold . This can help adjust the situation upon the USD. Why is gold falling? Well simply put volatile situations where the return of XAU maintains no yield, the Dollar however does Yield through interest rates. Gold will look to fall to level of around $1500 before examining next where the price is to move next. However pay attention to the 1700* whereby price has a good wick where price can closed out and may have an alternate buy opportunity here. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
2
GBP NZD - buying imbalancesHello traders and analysts. Below is our setup for the Minor pair - GBP NZD . Zone colour Master Key: Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly imbalances - Price has rejected multiple times the zone with 1.81 being the lowest wick on a monthly close. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance Weekly imbalances Price has rejected the monthly zone as well as on a weekly, the weekly close is showing bullish signs as the candle closes are creating higher lows. Further to this, the price analysis of the candle sticks show a strong engulfing whipsaw of a bearish week followed by a bullish week immediately after. This shows that price action on a lower time frame will indicate that the profit taking for the sellers are transitioning the imbalance of sellers to buyers. The gap from this zone where the imbalance has arisen, from a technical stand point gives the probability of the fresh zone on the monthly is the open target. Daily imbalances The current possible imbalances are marked and align with the price targets where price will look to reject using a Fibonacci extension tool, so these align with the strategy. On a daily timeframe, the price closes begin to show the consolidation and price range coming into effect. Where we will look to buy next: Between 1.906 - 1.91 if price retraces to this zone again. Here is a possible scenario of what the next entry could be if price enters the grey zone. Targets: The price targets set are GBP NZD 2.08 + - with a longer term final profit target of 2.15. Why? Because this is where our imbalance wick fill is. Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
1
USD CAD - Long and wait for it, longHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly Imbalances The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones at 1.466XX established. While this zone is a large trading gap - the best imbalances for price levels to work from here is on the weekly, daily, to execute sale positions. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in March 2020 created an imbalance high in line with the previous high of 2016, whereby the yen was showing strength from a fundamental perspective of the safe haven. The high of 1.466 was a structural high point where price indicated two key criteria; 1. Informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the daily and weekly imbalance to create correctional move. 2. The key zone here is price hitting a monthly imbalance block at the structural high using the three month chart* *Three month chart What is evident here? The imbalance perfectly aligns here as price touches the price close on the three month as assigned on the far left with the green arrow. The second fill which occurred January 2020, touched the same zone between 1.39 - 1.46 - while a very large zone. The three month and weekly time frames provide a great indicator as that price has not wicked the previous high. Price had to reverse from here, this is how the imbalance fill works where price perfectly reacts of a pivot point or a pricing inefficiency. Weekly imbalances From a weekly perspective, there has been a great opportunity to sell for the positional sellers within the 1.44 - 1.46 zone. The reason for this zones important is due to two reasons; 1. Price aligns with the weekly high fractal referring to June 2016 imbalance sell rejection. - Notice here that is key on all currency crosses. 2. When forming a sell position rally, base rally, or in a market shift 'poising' for a bearish continued market structure, the crucial aspect here is to understand the trading range on the daily and weekly timeframe where the maximum to the pip top of the range identifies with the 1.466 to 1.469X. The significance of this here is purely the closing out of the fractal pattern completing the cycle. Cross asset relationship between asset crosses Purple - XAU USD Dark Blue - US500 The reason for showing this chart here is with Canada and US both contributing to the top ten countries in output for the commodity. The Correlation of using Gold against the Standard & Poors 500 index shows the inverse of the US dollar imbalance as opposed to the SPX bullish imbalances. Gold is on a correctional imbalance as the Metal is cross correlated using a global investor asset whereas the focus on SPX is focused on the U.S markets. Monthly View USD CAD relationship with US OIL and EUR USD. Again here is another cross asset whereby Oil heavily produced by the USA and Canada a like. The EUR USD and Oil are both on bullish imbalances, however the imbalance on EUR USD has been confirmed and identified . Purple - EUR USD Dark Blue - US OIL The weekly view and monthly are key to providing inverse correlations and look for pivot, fractals on higher timeframes. In order to fully comprehend why these are crosses are key, looking into the chart shows key structural areas which on USD CAD can show a long probability. However on the Oil chart, can show an identified Selling probability. I. Weekly view II. Monthly view Fibonacci Extension Using this pathway build upon how the market cycle repeats, the application of the Fibonacci can be used here to plot next moves for entry areas in conjunction with the higher time frame to use the price path to reach the desired targets. Using the imbalance and Fibonacci tool also assists with trade management in terms of open interest fee's and furthermore exposure in short term trend shifts. Weekly - Fibonacci extension Daily Imbalances The levels are clearly identified, using the main criteria from the monthly and weekly imbalances. The levels on the daily take time to develop. Plot and assess upon price volatility and also the probability of the trade shifting direction , or in some cases, long term - dependant of the imbalance cycle* 4 Day view This view has been added as the probability of a lower buying position could still be likely. While the edge of the zone has been touched, for the price to regress back to original pivot point can create a higher low. This will give a trading edge to assess the inefficient price and look for opportunities. Entry criteria - See this for an example - I will execute upon confirmation of a liquidity rejection and inefficient price point touch. Currently already long, but with a small position to assess the market conditions. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
8
NZD JPY - Ready and waitingHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour NZD JPY Monthly imbalances Using the monthly time frame, it is clear to identify the buying imbalance and selling imbalance here. At this moment in time, there is no opportunity to sell as price has not yet reacted to the zones in place. The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 81.30- 84 JPY established. While this zone is a large trading gap - the best imbalances for price levels to work from here is on the weekly, daily. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in March 2020 created an imbalance low, whereby the yen was showing strength from a fundamental perspective of the safe haven. The low of 59.3 NZD to JPY was a structural low point where price indicated two key criteria; 1. Informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the daily and weekly imbalance to create correctional move. 2. The key zone here is price hitting a monthly imbalance block at the structural low using the three month chart* what is evident here? The imbalance perfectly aligns here as price touches the price close on the three month as assigned on the far left with the green arrow. The second fill which occurred January 2020, touched the same zone between 59.30-59.50 NZD JPY. Price had to reverse from here, this is how the imbalance fill works where price perfectly reacts of a pivot point or a pricing inefficiency. Three month chart* Monthly chart Weekly imbalance plan From a weekly perspective, there has been a great opportunity to buy in for the positional buyers and within the 68.00 - 69.80 zone. There reason for this zones important is due to two reasons; 1. Price aligns with the weekly low referring to June 2016 imbalance sell rejection. 2. When forming a rally, base rally, or in a market shift 'poising' for a bullish continued market structure, the crucial aspect here is to understand the trading range on the daily and weekly timeframe where the maximum to the pip top of the range identifies with the 71.96-72.00. The significance of this here is purely the closing out of the fractal pattern completing the cycle . Screenshot two - Fractal completion. This shows the clear pattern that price will be 'broken' to create a new high here. I. The low has been confirmed by the previous weekly touch of the candle wick high. - this nets off. II. The body low has been netted by the wick high. Fibonacci pathway Using the daily timeframe, the application of the Fibonacci can be used here to plot next moves for entry areas in conjunction with the higher time frame to use the price path to reach the desired targets. Using the imbalance and Fibonacci tool also assists with trade management in terms of open interest fee's and furthermore exposure in short term trend shifts. The outcome from the Fibonacci extension tool. This has been used for demonstration purposes for the analysis, however the technique in place here is how the top down analysis is predicted and executed. Daily imbalance levels The levels are clearly identified, using the main criteria from the monthly and weekly imbalances. The levels on the daily take time to develop. Plot and assess upon price volatility and also the probability of the trade shifting direction , or in some cases, long term - dependant of the imbalance cycle* Cross pair Analysis Understanding the cross pairs and correlation between commodity pairs The first chart shows the weekly and monthly using the commodity pairs: AUD JPY & CAD JPY in conjunction with NZD JPY. The pattern of the correlation is clear - these pairs are heading towards imbalances. The second chart provides key data for the weekly and monthly using the major pair currencies* GBP JPY is considered a minor pair - but with the correlation of XAU and commodity pairs the GBP also is a major pair so in this case with considered, it is analysed for the performance. Using the cross asset of NZD JPY vs XAU USD, while cross referencing VIX and US 10 year yields. The basis behind this, is to use the risk based approach of the NZD being a commodity currency where a produce of Gold and the correlation between the strength of the NZD and XAU in a 'risk on' approach. Particularly for the NZD using the imbalances as reference points. The use of variable instruments of the VIX and 10 year US yields are due to the 'risk off' scenario plan. Note; I VIX and 10 year - spikes in session Fundamental decisions do not necessarily result in a 'jolt' in the price on every occasion. This opens the door to a strong positional buying opportunity and openness to credit risk take on. II. The capitulation waters here on the economic cycle is ever present where buyers and sellers in the short term are profit taking and engineering liquidity from the transfer from the impatient to patient traders. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
1
GBP JPY - Final push to 155Hello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See our previous analysis here: Monthly imbalances: Price has rejected the previous all time low of GBP JPY. It is important to note here as to why this area on the low is so significant. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The monthly wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance - with clear evidence of a engineered liquidity wick rejection. Weekly Imbalance write up The reason for buying in at this level is simply due to the imbalance being filled on the weekly at 140.5-70, this zone was the top of a trading range where patience is required here for a Fibonacci retracement back to 137 zone. Upon a rejection to 136.80+ a buy would be prominent. Keeping the outlook in perspective is the key to buying on a higher timeframe, more aligns and there is less noise to worry about regarding reversals, trading ranges. The reason behind the entry point here at 137.80 The monthly and weekly imbalances above the buy zone at 136.69 are geared for longs as the imbalance is yet again filled. Daily Imbalances: Now that 152 target has been reached - this is now in a weekly and daily imbalance where price will look to use the previous daily and weekly former imbalance to create a range for one final push into the next zone . From here price will be monitored watching the all important weekly imbalance at the top of the structural move. The daily imbalances in have been patient levels to signify buys. - Previous analysis has provided clear indicators as to why these are buying opportunities. Profit taking As mentioned in the previous analysis 150, 152, 154 are even numbers to take partial profits. From this trade, profits have been taken leaving a small ending balance to follow through with smaller imbalances maintaining the open interest swaps. Taking into account correlations between GBP USD, XAU USD The price chart here signifies what GBP USD is doing, where the dollar is correcting against the pound from an imbalance level at 1.40 - price is now in a correctional phase, awaiting a buy move, therefore GBP JPY with a strong inverse, is also experiencing the same inverse phase. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
1
XLM USD - Mid/late 2021 forecastHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour XLM USD Monthly Imbalances With a small amount of data here, where price creates a new all time high, this is considered a daily, weekly or monthly imbalance so long as price retraces back to a zone e.g. a daily imbalance candle and fills a wick upon an aligning Fibonacci level. These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of $0.60, this was also a structural level of -0.618 Fibonacci extension. The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around $0.60-0.41 established. While this zone is a large trading gap - the best imbalances for price levels to work from here is on the weekly, daily. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a all time high*, whereby $0.43 was structural point where price was, informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the daily and weekly imbalance to create correctional move. To see this, play the original analysis below: See XLM chart in the link below. Weekly Imbalances The imbalances are clear here, with two in efficiencies identified. 1. - The upper newly created all time high has provided a correctional move where the 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement is in play. 2. - The imbalance wick between $0.38 - 0.30 needed filling as part of a engineer low for the imbalance to take effect for further longs.# Here is a possible scenario which could play out, where the probabilities align with the overall structure in play is geared to buyers imbalance. Here is a scenario which could be a probability - based on the coins structural past using the weekly data at present. To every Bullish scenario is a bearish probability. The idea here is for price to reach a monthly low imbalance. Daily Imbalances The Daily imbalances are showing a rally base rally correctional wave formation for those who look at wave patterns. However the path is a clear indicator of Imbalance, fresh high, imbalance fill, create a new imbalance and create a new fresh wick imbalance for price to fill and hold the market structure. Currently price is looking to create lower lows while being squeezed out to create a low discounted imbalance change over between the sellers and buyers. Here price will be monitored for additional positions. Eight hour imbalances Here is the Imbalances which have been previously filled with the long wicks rejecting price reversion points showing a clear imbalance from the shift from buyers to sellers, and from the bottom shift from sellers to buyers. Four hour imbalances The four hour imbalances for the downtrend are identified and when tested will be a lower time frame area of interest for adding buys or sells in, but the overall picture is the main priority. The four hour just identifies a good down trend pattern or correctional move, so buyers wait patiently. Cross Assets Looking at the correlation pairs with Ethereum, Atom, District0x and Band - price is currently experiencing a sellers imbalance correctional move across all coins at the current moment. However, price will look at respected areas for longs. Taking a look at Ethereum and Stellar - understand the correlation pattern the two coins have are very closely correlated. Keep an eye on how the more expensive asset moves affecting Stellar. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:XLMUSDLong
by LupaCapital
5
US OIL - to mid 2021 [Overall bullish]Hello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. A bullish scenario is needed, as well as a bearish , this is a game of patience. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the original analysis here; to capture the extent of the move. The US oil original analysis; December 2020. - The original monthly zones hit towards March to May 2021. This has been successfully achieved now. Monthly Imbalances Price has currently filled a monthly imbalance, with a new fresh imbalance zone awaiting price action to occur. The probabilities are strong here for price to enter into this zone, purely based on the candle wick which has been confirmed from February 2021. The wick on the lower time frames has provided evidence of this reaching a fractal point at $59.20 per barrel. . Price had created an engineered low, for the shakeout of the sellers who are looking for sells of the fresh "high". Note, on the daily, the trend line is well respected with the three soldier candle pattern 'identified as a sell off", however, this is a perfect opportunity to add a long. The monthly imbalance - is still showing the respective low as explained above. The price of oil has continued to show it's strength reaching the next liquidity wick fill at $66.34-54. Now, the next important imbalance zone is yet to be breached and tested. Price can now create a fresh test of the monthly chart, applying as to what the structure on the monthly is showing is, the price can have a high probability of moving back to $60.00 - $62 zone to create a solid rally base rally formation setup. Bearish monthly imbalance scenario: Where price is now entering a fresh imbalance - this is a great opportunity to close out long positions which have been held in a shorter run up or simply close out profits to de-risk and transfer the risk by offsetting shorts. Why? - Simply put, fresh zone is a clear opportunity for the imbalance to occur. The imbalance will be closed out and the market structure will offer a new opportunity. Price can dramatically collapse again with a strong supply, however where price is still showing "long". Oil can be sold off to weekly imbalances or in a worst case scenario to the below Blue, monthly imbalance. Weekly Imbalances The Weekly imbalance provides a good indicator her where price can create a weekly supply or sellers imbalance as the zone is a fresh touch. The probability of price retracing from the newly created high, is a strong possibility. However, as there is a zone higher, Oil can still use this imbalance as a base, to create strong price action floating within a range of $67-60 per Barrel. Look into the smaller time frames for pivot points assessing the risk of entering a trade. Eight hour Imbalance Below are the eight hour imbalances, where a great structure has taken place to provide an opportunity for the base to built upon. The imbalance here will attract the short sellers and scalpers and hedged sellers to cover longs. However the 50% retrace zone aligns perfectly to a strong indicator of where Fibonacci lines mock up a solid alert to monitor the minor inefficiency taking place here. The main wick of interest here - is located at 0.705,for two reasons, one being which touches the bullish trendline - while this co-insides with the inefficiency, this zone is a great area to be present for a engineered fractal for longs. Daily imbalance - for a simplified view Again the imbalance of the monthly aligns with the daily low, so take into account here a inflow opportunity for the building up of a buying imbalance at around $59-60.XX Understanding the context behind Oil with the "disastrous" negative price of the Oil futures crash. 2020-2021. We have seen a nice impulse into the channel and a rejection upon reaching the trendline at $53.00 Good question, based on the fact - from a technical standpoint - the sell off back in February, March 2020 - reversed on a fractal point within the market structure to the crisis of Oil supply being heavy weighted in comparison to the demand . The spike to zero was the abundance of supply which effectively the storage supply became over saturated and "worthless", the May contracts were not accepted for physical delivery and the paying for the delivery took place to prevent further storage. This imbalance was created in which created the impulse. Price re-established itself with $30-36 zone for a further imbalance where price will now look to as a strong demand for price engineering if needed. UK Crude, Vs Brent - correlation Understanding the Fundamentals behind the Supply, Demand & Future Supply through inflation of cause and effect. Oil prices and levels of inflation are often seen as being connected in a cause-and-effect relationship. Simply put with oil current at $66.00 per barrel, as oil prices move up, inflation—which is the measure of general price trends throughout the economy—follows in the same direction resulting in a higher overall price. Keep in mind, as the price of oil falls, inflationary pressures start to ease. Producer Price Index This is a measurement of the rate of change in prices of said commodity , where the change in prices of the products sold is measured by the producer. The exclusion of Tax, trade margins and transport cost which are all variables a buyer of a physical will have to burden. The PPI is a average movement of price, which are subsequently tracked by the economic indicators dealing with the price fluctuations end users have to pay at the end of the supply line. Below is the inflation ETF vs Oil - providing some crucial cause and effect over the future supply of Oil and where price is overall moving towards, again use inefficiency in the market. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
TVC:USOILLong
by LupaCapital
2
SPX - It might be time to face it [Bearish scenario]Hello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. A bullish scenario is needed, as well as a bearish, this is a game of patience. Bullish scenario here: Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Rolling returns method: SPX is in need of a correctional Rolling returns - historical data . Using the base model of 3 year rolling returns, the simplified explanation of the model shows a 41/50 years have returned a positive growth. As opposed to 6 years of negative returns. With 2020 closing out 16.26% return . *Note - the 6 years where the rolling return is negative - the dot com bubble only stood to lose 6.2%* Est. SPX is in need of a correctional move using the monthly time frame, ideally the monthly close will indicate an array of imbalance with large wicks providing an indicator of a battle with for example a hammer candle, shooting star, doji, or long bodied and legged wick. This will provide a great amount of support of accumulation before an impending distribution from the monthly imbalance. It's a game of probabilities. SPX Weekly Bearish scenario Monthly imbalances Un-sustained rally Current picture - where a good Fibonacci short could take the price from a four hour perspective. 3721.XX was always a test zone for me. A four hour perspective of where price has moved from for the bullish scenario in the short term to a negative risk, however what price is actually doing is testing the monthly imbalance zone where the zone either breaks or rejects. This zone was a good test, however please note - the probability here is building up a profit take for buyers and an imbalance can cause the sellers to take over with the wick on the monthly close of February indicating the inefficiency is present. Taking a technical approach with the Fibonacci retracement, using the four hour, price has shown the start of the move - gathering a all time high pivot point, retracing to a low, forming the Fibonacci structure. Targets being said for the 3721 - is the imbalance, which is in between the short term Fibonacci retracement extension zones. However, price will test the low, look for a reversion pivot and continue the sell. The probability with be depending on the wick in focus where price has created a shooting start to 3834*.XX. US Bonds yield curve, accelerating the USD first U.S. bond yields gauging performance of the U.S. stock market, thereby reflecting the demand for the U.S. dollar in subsequence. Where investors move away from stocks and other high-risk investments, the new increased demand for “less-risky instruments” such as U.S. bonds and the safe-haven U.S. dollar pushes their prices higher against respective pairs. However, when it comes to the EUR USD - the Euro will show its weakness with the Remember: A rising bond yield is dollar appreciation. A falling bond yield is dollar devaluation Mirrors Edge EXY Vs DXY - looking here at the Euro Currency Index and the Dollar Currency Index, price has established some very defined levels - which have been marked in Purple - Refer to Master key for zone colours. With the impact of the DXY - the jaws are looking to close here, from a technical standpoint clear fresh movements are foreseeable with the probability of positional holds for Dollar buys and Euro sales based upon the chart. So long as price reverts back to a clear higher low formation on the EUR USD and respectively on the EXY with the DXY creating a defined point of higher lows, then the holds are clear to the imbalances stated. Cross Analysis; USD JPY VS DXY VS Debt instruments - Impact Simplified - U.S. bond yields gauge the performance of the U.S. stock market, thereby reflecting the demand for the U.S. dollar in subsequence. Where investors move away from stocks and other high-risk investments, the new increased demand for “less-risky instruments” such as U.S. bonds and the safe-haven U.S. dollar pushes their prices higher against respective pairs. However, when it comes to the USD JPY - the Yen will show it's weakness. Remember: A rising bond yield is dollar appreciation. A falling bond yield is dollar devaluation. Inflation further analysis: Keep an eye on the SPX with Inflation ETF vs SPX500 . If you as a trader are interested in the price ratio of Shiller P/E ratio , the market is at this moment 35.83x, with low inflation at the moment, the bulls are on the run. Watch this space Gold discounted See here for the imbalances on Gold . This can help adjust the situation upon the USD. Why is gold falling? Well simply put volatile situations where the return of XAU maintains no yield, the Dollar however does Yield through interest rates. Gold will look to fall to level of around $1500 before examining next where the price is to move next. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
TVC:SPXShort
by LupaCapital
2
EUR USD - It might be timeHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Euro USD monthly imbalances These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 1.25 to be a structural level for the Euro against the Dollar. The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 1.235XX. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a lower high, informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone. Breakout traders will be looking for a quick scalp and also hedging traders will be in place here. Here is the link to the privatised idea Euro - Weekly imbalances The weekly and monthly imbalance are both here within the same zone, therefore the zone is marked with a monthly inefficiency zone. Looking at the weekly it is clear this zone is a strong imbalance zone where just like the USD JPY - the monthly zones have shown a great amount of respect. Subject to the weekly higher low which took place, the hammer signal here on the weekly indicates a great opportunity to understand that the sell off is beginning. EURO Daily and Weekly chart side by side Using the daily and weekly structure – the move was identified early – with reference to the price finding an inefficiency on the monthly time frame, referring to the high firstly at 1.254XX. Why will traders look to sell here? – It is a simple buy trap for retail traders and scalpers. Traders in the short term can win big and of course anything is possible in trading. The pattern which has clearly emerged though from my analysis shows I Price has placed a key weekly whipsaw effect from the initial formation of the price inefficiency. II The consequence of this pair being the most liquid is testing the previous imbalance upon the motion of a risk scenario where price becomes a controlled shift of price inefficiency. The monthly reference here shows four candles of interest whereby consecutive months have resulted in large wicks where price has created the imbalance required. US Bonds yield curve, accelerating the USD first U.S. bond yields gauging performance of the U.S. stock market, thereby reflecting the demand for the U.S. dollar in subsequence. Where investors move away from stocks and other high-risk investments, the new increased demand for “less-risky instruments” such as U.S. bonds and the safe-haven U.S. dollar pushes their prices higher against respective pairs. However, when it comes to the EUR USD - the Euro will show its weakness with the Remember: A rising bond yield is dollar appreciation. A falling bond yield is dollar devaluation Mirrors Edge EXY Vs DXY - looking here at the Euro Currency Index and the Dollar Currency Index, price has established some very defined levels - which have been marked in Purple - Refer to Master key for zone colours. With the impact of the DXY - the jaws are looking to close here, from a technical standpoint clear fresh movements are foreseeable with the probability of positional holds for Dollar buys and Euro sales based upon the chart. So long as price reverts back to a clear higher low formation on the EUR USD and respectively on the EXY with the DXY creating a defined point of higher lows, then the holds are clear to the imbalances stated. Correlation: USD CHF - Green Look closely on the weekly imbalances - where price has created two opportunistic weekly imbalances where profits will be taken [ Marked in orange] . USD CHF will a an inverse trade, however taking this can double exposure so ensure one pair is traded here. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
6
USD JPY - let's ride the rollercoasterHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly imbalances for USD JPY These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 100.00 to be a structural level for the USD. The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 100-102. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a higher low, informing that the buyers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone. Daily Fibonacci Currently price is heading to -0.272, before an opportunity for the trend in most scenarios to take a breather, where price will look towards the 8hour imbalance zone. Price has become bullish with a mounting risk of the VIX and the safe haven of both the USD and JPY. The technical aspect here is price will need to engineer a long movement so when coming to a pivotal point on the Fibonacci extension target, price will react here, allowing discounted buy opportunities. 8 hour imbalances Weekly structure forming of the monthly imbalance USD JPY VS DXY VS Debt instruments Simplified - U.S. bond yields gauge the performance of the U.S. stock market, thereby reflecting the demand for the U.S. dollar in subsequence. Where investors move away from stocks and other high-risk investments, the new increased demand for “less-risky instruments” such as U.S. bonds and the safe-haven U.S. dollar pushes their prices higher against respective pairs. However, when it comes to the USD JPY - the Yen will show it's weakness. Remember: A rising bond yield is dollar appreciation. A falling bond yield is dollar devaluation. Keep an eye on the SPX Last comparison; Inflation ETF vs SPX500 . If you as a trader are interested in the price ratio of Shiller P/E ratio , the market is at this moment 35.83x, with low inflation at the moment, the bulls are on the run. Watch this space. SPX idea: - updates pending XAU USD See here for the imbalances on Gold. This can help adjust the situation upon the USD. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Editors' picks
Long
by LupaCapital
31
BTC outlook restructureHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view. 1. Zone 1: The daily zone is where price will be looking at a test of the order block based on how the mark flows between imbalances to create the range. The current week has seen a sharp outflow of movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of $42,000. This redistribution of wealth is the transfer from impatient to patient buyers, liquidity to show bears opportunities to 'shake' Bitcoin wallets out to create a new engineered low. 2. Exactly the same development but making further lows to around $37,000 - $39,000. This zone will be a 'full retrace' upon a daily Fibonacci standpoint, however this is where the imbalance lies. 3. The true imbalance remains at $28,000 - see BTC VS yields for this information. Where is price taking Bitcoin now? Well price has successfully retraced to the 8 hour chart imbalance. with potential to break this and ideally test the daily zone or weekly zone where the imbalances are in place - the volatility will be high of course as price falls sharply but if the imbalances are hit, then patience is now the key frame for further buys. The zone is between $40,000 and $42,000 subject to long probability bias. Bitcoin weekly imbalances Weekly Fibonacci perspective Bitcoin has successfully retraced to the 50% zone and rejected, however, be aware the 61.8% zone remains intact, price can still fall to the weekly imbalance before looking for a shift of buyers to sellers. 8 Hour imbalances Past analysis: This was based off the Fibonacci - keep in mind the zones here aligned with the 0.5% retracement. January 15th analysis: Comparing BTC vs ETH While the recent sell off from the imbalance, both Ethereum and Bitcoin have experienced the all time highs to retrace back to the 0.5% Fibonacci. Price has to fall after a steep rise in performance over the coming months. US Treasury volatility - not to be ignored by Crypto: Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence. Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the indexes also which will impact the imbalances of Crypto currencies. BTC vs yields only Bitcoin cycle Examples of bitcoin back in 2015: Further analysis; Delving into the consolidation in the past, market participants are looking at the consolidation when Bitcoin was introduced - it took 106bars on the weekly timeframe to reach $1,000 price. This consolidation area, has shown us the volatility yes, however it has provided further information as to how the price is behaving upon weekly imbalances and how the cycle is showing it's fractal patterns as time brings us to now, and the future. See here for the imbalance occurring back in 2015. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by LupaCapital
4
GBP AUD enters weekly zone, what next?Hello traders and analysts, Below see the original idea dated: January 1st 2021. Master Key: Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view. 1. Zone 1: - 1.72 - 1.75 we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows. From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs. A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie. 2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development. We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps. What has happened since? Price has tested the inefficiency zone with a double bottom of 1.742X lows- but on a weekly chart against the ray trend line, this has created a false breakout for the bears - which is exactly what was needed to identify the imbalance shift from sellers to buyers. The imbalance zone is highlighted blue to represent the monthly zone due to the price hitting monthly lows, so from here the buyers took over. Long Positions held: Position 1: - 1.74550 Position 2: - 1.77200 Monthly imbalances: Pretty simple breakdown from a monthly perspective, where GBP maxed out in March 2020 and began the sellers imbalance to reach lows of 1.742 as previously stated above. From a buying retrace imbalance - the targets are set at the 1.87 mark and 1.93 the next target. From a positional buy into 2022 if the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement permits the target and holds above, then extension of 2.0X will be looked towards. Daily chart imbalance Here is the price chart for the daily chart and the previous idea of tracking the update Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. AUD USD peaking at the imbalance of 0.80 Below is the AUD - USD rising to the imbalance of 0.80 Here provides a clearer view as to why the GBP vs AUD is ranging between a 300pip range, based upon a strong GBP and a strong AUD Why the previous analysis pointed to 0.80 as a selling pivotal point using imbalances. The DXY is pivotal DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. SPX vs AUD USD - with an importance note of GBP AUD. The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence. Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
5
AUD USD 0.80 achieved! Now check the imbalance to shortHello traders and analysts. 0.80 target has been hit! Congratulations holders! Below is our setup for the pair AUD USD at the current position. The investment strategy is neutral - while a short position is held at exactly 0.80 tap, the possibility for the price to still reach the liquidity engineer a higher low or... the sell off begins. Watch this space. Zone colour Master Key: Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first, using a a daily Fibonacci on the daily chart, the price levels of this very strong strength from the Australian Dollar, the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% is a strong possibility which has now been proved as price action here tapped 0.772 zone and consolidated while still making higher lows - giving confidence of confluence here rising to the monthly imbalance. The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. . The plan since the original analysis, price has been bullish and driving towards the .80 mark as expected. beating the analysis prediction at an early scenario by 1 week. End of 2021 scenario hypothesis: However, with the year end - we will now look for two scenarios - 1. Price will revert back using the Fib retracement - looking at a new high low to form before a further bullish movement to the Aussie towards 0.80, where price will then encounter a sell off from the imbalance or use this is a mid way imbalance and continue to hold to 2022 around or above 0.80+ 2. Price will continue to flow with minimal setbacks with a high probability of a weaker USD - due to the stimulus and presidential change, with new reforms to boost the economy again tumbling the Dollar. Now the trend is moving, looking to see a weak dollar maintained in 2021 so this will be great for the Aussie!! Remember any bearish news on the world will see a rush to the USD, however with the US attempting to remove the safehaven asset for investors, expect a good move for the Aussie to see bullish movements. Monthly imbalances - Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD USD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. AUD USD - weekly time frame imbalances The weekly imbalances in place have provided Track the original idea: November 2020 Update using the daily timeframe Multi time frame analysis; AUD USD - Daily AUD USD - 4 hour Fibonacci extension target is 0.80 at -0.786 Current sale to hedge the longs SPX vs AUD USD The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish, this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish. With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. Using Yields: Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation. Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
6
GBP JPY 150 touched! - let's re-analyseHello traders and analysts. 150 target has been hit! Congratulations holders! Below is our setup for the pair GBP JPY. Zone colour Master Key: Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly imbalances - Price has rejected the previous all time low of GBP JPY. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance Current situation - the Fibonacci sequence has completed over night in the Asian session - whereby price needed to close and reach the target of the extension using the 4 hour of the -0.786. The smaller time buy zone is now in place for possible longs so long that price creates a liquidity wick in this area. If price falls further, the daily zone comes into play. GBP JPY weekly timeframe Daily time frame 4 hour time frame See the original idea for the 2021 bullish outlook here: The imbalances are clear, price will hit our 150 analysis and then we will update the outlook accordingly. GBP pairs currently state of play in returns percentage: Here are the returns thus far from 2021 - 2022. GBP JPY has appreciated the most as expected. Fundamentals at play With the successful Brexit transition and recovery from the Risk-off scenario from Brexit, the commodity hedge from Gold will not push higher. While the vaccination and cases remain a concern for the UKs long term success in the economy opening up, the GBP has been seen rising and looks set to continue with a target of 149 poised to be filled by the bulls. This has now taken effect, however confirmations of a daily close will highlight further bullish momentum. The current zone in play approaching 150 is a monthly imbalance which has been previous tested as a supply imbalance. The Bulls may side-line between 147-150 in a range as GBP JPY can erase gains and equally provide gains very quickly in a trading session. Targets: 150! 152 154 Re-buy zones: 148 147 Lows of 145. Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
8
SPX liquidity was needed - bullish trend intactHello traders and analysts, A quick note: This is tagged as long, for the wider outlook. Zone colour Master Key: Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Here is an update to the previous idea - keep in mind the imbalances in the wider time frames. What does this chart show? Well, the trendline has been tested, but a higher low has been created suggesting that a correctional move was imminent. Why in this "sell off" remaining cool, calm and collected is important here. The emotional move in profit taking is crucial, but this move was needed. see the Fibonacci aligning here; This was another opportunity to add a long position - all be it small as price is at a costly price to buy in. But the power of compounding and average price will allow for these moves to take on a short term horizonal risk. The Fibonacci retracement aligns and a buy order can be placed. Note* this 61.8% maybe broken in the short term for a trendline retest of a false breakout to pin a bearish move. See the correctional move from the channel below. Notice how price is back within the lower green target. The trendline has been tested of 6 losing days consecutively. The 2021 analysis: Price has followed the path prediction thus far to a almost perfection at this moment in time. The reason for this is using the daily, weekly and monthly. The probability of the imbalances remain clear Multi time frame analysis: SPX is in need of a correctional Rolling returns - historical data . Using the base model of 3 year rolling returns, the simplified explanation of the model shows a 41/50 years have returned a positive growth. As opposed to 6 years of negative returns. With 2020 closing out 16.26% return . *Note - the 6 years where the rolling return is negative - the dot com bubble only stood to lose 6.2%* Est. SPX is in need of a correctional move using the monthly time frame Daily time frame: A four hour perspective of where price has moved from for the bullish scenario in the short term. SPX vs the Vix The Vix to be maintaining below 35 max positional moves will show correctional patterns of distribution flows in the smaller timeframes where price engineering will take place to allow discounted prices to occur. This will tend to steady the recovery but also give the rally base rally move a chance to breathe. SPX vs Emerging: What does the emerging markets show us? Well the imbalances are within the same as the US market, but the economic recovery in terms of imbalance price driving in the EEM - shows that whilst fundamentally there is more volatility . The activeness of these markets provides a telling Fibonacci extension target is not to dissimilar along with the SPX . The commodities such as Copper , Silver , Gold and Platinum will now provide a solid buy opportunity now the demand will grow. The second image shows the return % of the fund upon a scale against the SPX on a daily chart close. Fundamental failures, to ensure imbalances are made clear for the bullish scenario. The FED injecting 22% of all USD in circulation within one year. A Staggering amount of est $9T USD was injected to save the US from collapse, despite its ever mounting debt of as it stands 11. 01 .2021 $27.775T USD www.usdebtclock.org The question remains as the USD loses value - in order to promote cheaper investment and more prospects for cheaper imports - the country will have a real issue with the constant cycle of financing debt upon debit. With the Global fiscal policy to remain between 1.5-2% - this should keep the FED side lined for a few years monitoring the US and world economy. What we would expect to see will be the growth of EM and commodity based countries in terms of FX to continue the growth against the USD. Last comparison; Inflation ETF vs SPX500 . If you as a trader are interested in the price ratio of Shiller P/E ratio , the market is at this moment 35.83x, with low inflation at the moment, the bulls are on the run. Watch this space. Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Editors' picks
TVC:SPXLong
by LupaCapital
24
BTC to retrace, load up the buysHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. Please do not take this as face value. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour What now? Well price is going to retrace to our daily zone or weekly zone where the imbalances are in place - the volatility will be high of course as price falls sharply but if the imbalances are hit, then patience is now the key frame for further buys. The zone is $48,000. Here was the previous chart tracking our progress: Looking at the chart from a technical standpoint - the sell off begins with a new equal high peak or a higher high. We will expect price to pullback engineering liquidity to shakeout buyers and free up the market players - using the 4 hour, there is a possibility the 50 - 61.8% retracement showing a good imbalance zone. We will not look to buy at this moment due to the fact price is working well and needs the activity to free up in order to consolidate. Crypto in our eyes works like rocket fuel , in the sense of bursting out - tailing off and crashing - while most FX pairs do this - crypto is still establishing multiple fresh zones both in fractal senses and adoption will have a momentum here if you look from a fundamental view. Fundamental Update - E Musk has been tweeting and purchased $1.5bn of bitcoin and accepting payments of BTC for Tesla products, next up is JPM and credit card companies? Past analysis; This was based off the Fibonacci - keep in mind the zones here aligned with the 0.5% retracement. What did we see - while patiently waiting for the imbalance to hit the above image, shows the Fibonacci on a daily - whereby we used our previous retracement back in the end of January, this confirmed to us the buyers were still in control. Inefficiency 1 zone was valid. This is now a new buy zone for future reference. Take a look at a 4 hour view for bitcoin. Previous purchase zone: Here was our latest buy position - based on the previous idea January 28th 2021 Examples of bitcoin back in 2015: Further analysis; Delving into the consolidation in the past, market participants are looking at the consolidation when Bitcoin was introduced - it took 106bars on the weekly timeframe to reach $1,000 price. This consolidation area, has shown us the volatility yes, however it has provided further information as to how the price is behaving upon weekly imbalances and how the cycle is showing it's fractal patterns as time brings us to now, and the future. See here for the imbalance occurring back in 2015. Here is a 2016 example; To see this in full - click the idea below. The analysis provides sufficient detail Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by LupaCapital
3