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GBP AUD - back in longs after 1.765 structure rejectedHello traders and analysts, we have a nice update to GBP AUD - now the weekly and monthly zone has been touched and rejected - the bulls are in play now COT data: Pay attention to the Long positions added back in June. The sentiment has changed dramatically Aussie cot Data - Date Long Short Total %Long %Short Net Change 14/07/20 45,543 41,293 86,836 52% 48% 4,250 4,944 07/07/20 44,740 45,434 90,174 50% 50% -694 2,214 30/06/20 40,025 42,933 82,958 48% 52% -2,908 1,902 23/06/20 35,974 40,784 76,758 47% 53% -4,810 1,722 16/06/20 31,685 38,217 69,902 45% 55% -6,532 30,043 09/06/20 29,912 66,487 96,399 31% 69% -36,575 4,216 GBP COT 14/07/2020 43,175 56,761 99,936 43% 57% -13,586 2,822 07/07/2020 39,892 56,300 96,192 41% 59% -16,408 4,582 30/06/2020 34,424 55,414 89,838 38% 62% -20,990 -2,474 23/06/2020 29,654 48,170 77,824 38% 62% -18,516 -2,518 16/06/2020 29,378 45,376 74,754 39% 61% -15,998 8,050 09/06/2020 28,893 52,941 81,834 35% 65% -24,048 11,996 Technicals: What can we see technically? - Daily bearish but breaking momentum short in the channel. - weekly bearish - monthly also bearish - - strong Aussie and Strong GBP - bounce from the demand zone - this has now been completed - we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct - this has now occurred. - we have made lower lows and lower highs- showing the correction - now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks formed and a reversal to the upside - this has been boosted by GBP Tuesday as of writing. -AUD USD ranging market looking to break 0.715+ for upside strength. -Large downside gap to fall to if price looks to create a new low structure in bearish confluence and momentum trading. - COT report in favour of AUD however, risk off will shift sentiment to immediate bias. Fundamentals Aussie is a commodity currency so is highly affected with exports of natural resources, Gold , Oil , Grains, Copper etc. Victoria lockdown has caused issues for the restart of the border openings USD outlook affects the progress of strength for Australia. Coronavirus within the US sees an affect on the economy for the US as a result affects directly Australia where the index correlates. USD sees 1Trillion package for stimulus package. GBP - lacking a trade deal can affect the GBP on the world stage - but positions are being added so this is good for the GBP gaining strength against majors. Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
Long
by LupaCapital
QQQS longWe are looking at Inverse purchases QQQ long unit trust position is reaching $250 at a max, needing a strong correction. This double top scenario is looking plausible. This is not a signal, price will change and according to the rules of your plan, trade when price aligns to your levels. Technicals: Swing low - lowest ever price, creating double bottom to previous wick Fake V-shape recovery for the economy. market disconnect in favour of inflating greed. no real QE back into the economy, just inflating prices of stocks. QQQ long chart - price max reached. historic supply awaiting rejection wick candle or inside bar engulfing bearish. Use risk management accordingly here. note: our take is not final, this is not a signal, price will change and according to the rules of your plan, trade when price aligns to your levels. If you like our work, please leave a comment or private message to understand more about our analysis. Many thanks, Team Lupa
LSE:QQQSLong
by LupaCapital
FTSE 100 - short as in 50-61.8% ratio. Hello analysts and traders - Looking at the FTSE100 - it is time to sell? We think yes - we have monitored this on private charts but now it is time show a public view and to close some longs and begin to hedge and close out final longs. Have you noticed a pattern? All indexes have had Vshaped recoveries - however is it sustainable? Nope. With a lot of the companies on the FTSE stock exchange being foreign owned on multiple exchanges - it is clear that these giants will see a poor performance coming. Technicals - weak trend line which saw a fakeout and retest on our orginial trendline - but this was now corrected. Now we move sideways around the 50%. Taking the impulse from the highs to the lows March end. We have a very poor trend line which is a correction rising channel - but as tailed off. UK sectors - will see large outflows with the FTSE supply and lower high formed - means the sentiment is sour. The UK has a dead cat bounce , similar to S&P, Nasdaq, and Dax. VIX and Gold will be the strongest gainers where money printing and inflation occurs. . Fundamentals Brexit in play with a little chance of a deal and the stimulus package which the UK provided to citizens is clever to many to provide companies with the 20% pay gap, however many people are still not in work and the sentiment of the government finding ways to prevent debt to tip over 100% will become a real issue. Brexit again, EU stimulus package for loans and grants is another poor decision - with many countries affected in crippling ways, Southern Europe, Eastern Europe also and western countries e.g. Scandinavian, Netherlands all not wishing this would go ahead. Germany need the stimulus to keep on top of the EU. Germany has become the power of EU since Euro inception. UK assets - will be reduced to losses without trade deals from the EU, USA and Canadian, swiss or singaporean style deal.. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets - both work in investment banks, hedge funds simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
OANDA:UK100GBPShort
by LupaCapital
GBP AUD short to complete extension, then buy.Hello analysts and traders. Important updates - we have been holding a short and enjoying the wave ride down to the demand extension zone. The market works in waves - it is incredible. However - we are experiencing at this moment a really nice Fibonacci retracement on the GBP AUD - where AUD is in control more than the GBP despite strong buying net position changes. COT data: Pay attention to the Long positions added back in June. Aussie cot Data - Date Long Short Total %Long%Short Net Change 14/07/20 45,543 41,293 86,836 52% 48% 4,250 4,944 07/07/20 44,740 45,434 90,174 50% 50% -694 2,214 30/06/20 40,025 42,933 82,958 48% 52% -2,908 1,902 23/06/20 35,974 40,784 76,758 47% 53% -4,810 1,722 16/06/20 31,685 38,217 69,902 45% 55% -6,532 30,043 09/06/20 29,912 66,487 96,399 31% 69% -36,575 4,216 GBP COT 14/07/2020 43,175 56,761 99,936 43% 57% -13,586 2,822 07/07/2020 39,892 56,300 96,192 41% 59% -16,408 4,582 30/06/2020 34,424 55,414 89,838 38% 62% -20,990 -2,474 23/06/2020 29,654 48,170 77,824 38% 62% -18,516 -2,518 16/06/2020 29,378 45,376 74,754 39% 61% -15,998 8,050 09/06/2020 28,893 52,941 81,834 35% 65% -24,048 11,996 Technicals: What can we see technically? - Daily bearish but breaking momentum short in the channel. - weekly bearish - monthly also bearish - with a nice - bounce from the demand zone zone. - we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct - this has now occurred. - we have made lower lows and lower highs- showing the correction - now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks formed and a reversal to the upside - this has been boosted by GBP Tuesday as of writing. -AUD USD ranging market looking to break 0.715+ for upside strength. -Large downside gap to fall to if price looks to create a new low structure in bearish confluence and momentum trading. - COT report in favour of AUD however, risk off will shift sentiment to immediate bias. Fundamentals Aussie is a commodity currency so is highly affected with exports of natural resources, Gold , Oil , Grains, Copper etc. Victoria lockdown has caused issues for the restart of the border openings USD outlook affects the progress of strength for Australia. Coronavirus within the US sees an affect on the economy for the US as a result affects directly Australia where the index correlates. USD sees 1Trillion package for stimulus package. Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
Short
by LupaCapital
Nasdaq sell - if price closes below -0.27 Fib extensionHello traders and analyst - we have been monitoring the Nasdaq and profit taking, but now it is time for a new outlook. Despite the obvious of the Nasdaq and technology sector growing throughout the V-shaped first demand zone hit back in March - the Nasdaq has reached its all time high. W formation: The Nasdaq ceiling of 11,000 was tapped and now a W formation has occurred at the top - what happens after a W formation? We have a sell to correct - as the extension will not be sustained. Also conducting a Wave pattern but applies - Wave 5 profits are now being completed. Fibonacci - Now what can we see - price is battling for the monthly close of -0.272% over extension - However, we can see price moving against this to close below. If price does not close below - await the next move on the August candle to verify further selling. Monthly low - March - 1.00 0.00 point is the Feb high So our technical view: as with the S&P, VIX it is the same scenario - where price has begun to complete a 5 wave target and now needs to break the rising channel which is also the supply zone. COT data - Long Shorts Total %Longs %Shorts Net Avg_13 13,697 9,948 23,645 58% 42% 3,749 Avg_20 13,598 9,699 23,297 58% 42% 3,899 Avg 50 14,545 10,071 24,616 59% 41% 4,474 Avg_130 14,566 10,037 24,604 59% 41% 4,529 Buyers keep looking to take out the stops of sellers but the shorts are creeping in now. let's await the 10,800-11,000 before assessing again. Same fundamental view from previous posts apply. Nothing has changed. A question, will the stimulus provide further support or is the show over? A reset is needed? Many thanks for all the likes and support. To any new followers, welcome and we hope we inform your trading needs. Thanks, Team Lupa
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by LupaCapital
GBP USD - weakness coming as high, lower high formedHello traders and analysts, Here is our take on GBP USD - the trade is active, with FX it is a moving target so we will look for an additional entry upon a nice supply up coming but will it hold? the answer is yes, so price reacted at our 0.705 and resisted - now we have a long aiming to close into the purple zone. what has changed since the last chart? So what is new is that we have had a zone touch and a lower 4hour zone touch. We can see personally a failed touch of the zone, the GBP is staying weak against the dollar with uncertainty of the GBP strength so we will now look to the downside and close out longs. COT report: Long Short Total %Long %Short GBP Avg_13 32,923 49,892 82,815 40% 60% Avg_20 41,245 43,918 85,163 48% 52% Avg_130 43,323 68,286 111,609 41% 59% AVG_50 43,547 67,458 111,004 41% 59% USD Avg_13 18,508 12,046 30,554 60% 40% Avg_20 19,886 11,437 31,323 63% 37% AVG 50 31,006 11,782 42,788 71% 29% Avg_130 31,573 11,946 43,520 71% 29% Technicals: We have a good opportunity here to break the trendline as the triple top formation failed with heavy resistance at 1.265XX and weekly fibonacci level of 0.705 this could be a strong opportunity to sell again. However, be aware of the above supply which is a full retracement from lows of 1.14 - 1.15 if price reacts and falls back into the range - look for a range sell, however if price shows a breakout and closes above with a weakened dollar. look long There is bullish sentiment on the 4hour, but daily we can still a nice range here - it is shaking out a lot of investors which is good for liquidity grabs and flow of funds between the players. We are playing the supply and demand here between bulls and bears. This is all that matters. for this trade however we are in short. Add sell positions if a fakeout of the retest of the breakout to create a lower low. Fundamentals Coronavirus in the EU and UK - both showing cases in respective countries, Euro stimulus package has not been agreed so can show signs of strength of GBP if this fails to transpire. Brexit talks - will send the pound with huge strength once a deal is reached - inverse will send EUR to almost parity if talks end and no deal is reached Keep a watch for manufacturing orders in Germany and any causes for concern within France, Italy, Germany and Spain which can drag data components down. Vaccination attempts to drive market sentiment. USD safehaven upon tensions between HK move on China vs USA debate. USA - cases in multiple states are high risk, the disconnect is unbelievable. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital
AUD USD - Risk on - await buys Hello traders and analysts, So currently we are in a range - and we will need to be reactive here on the four hour time frame in order to see where price will show us, rejections for buys or sells. What can be shown technically? MA Longs Short Total Long Short Avg_13 30,441 54,256 84,697 36% 64% Avg_20 33,958 63,290 97,248 35% 65% Avg_50 39,133 76,363 115,496 34% 66% Avg_130 38,877 76,625 115,502 34% 66% So why is price bullish? Great question - at this present moment the USD is still showing signs of weakness, which is a tactic by the US government to create benefits for imports and exports - Trump is all about business so the sentiment of an attraction to a weak dollar is pivotal, in addition to this, stimulus package of 1Trillon USD will be injected into the economy. Technical set up: Top blue - Weekly imbalance zone Blue zone at 0.72 - we have a nice supply zone which will be a good opportunity to short before adding longs. weekly Fibonacci retracement is showing signs of Bullish momentum to go for a retest of the 0.7045 if a long option is available. At the moment the COT data shows signs of weakness but now a sentiment switch but profits are still being taken and extended - this is still a play with the weak dollar, but keep in mind USD gain turn any moment. We have a sell zone shown of where price will react for our view. Also is a buy position if price shows bullish signs upon retracement. Fundamentals: USD stimulus package has not been agreed so can show signs of strength of GBP if this fails to transpire. Failure to lockdown the country and social distance for states.. cases growing. Vaccination attempts to drive market sentiment. - pump and dump for stocks who claim to have breakthroughs. USD safehaven upon tensions between HK move on China vs USA debate. USA - cases in multiple states are high risk, the disconnect is unbelievable. twitter hack will affect tech stocks and S&P for privacy laws. election taking place in November. AUS - Victorian cases all time high, borders between states are looking to re-open with exclusion of NSW and VIC . AUS has seen large progress with stopping COVID and has a weak currency battered by the USD in order to create strong trade balance and tourism prospects. However COT data has changed and Aussie longs are now reversed and Net long - so this is a big shift - and Australian government have put price inline with the fundamental data. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Long
by LupaCapital
XAG USD clear path to 26+Hello traders & analysts, Here is out latest update for Silver . We are bullish and would like to share our out look for the next opportunities which can take place. Now we have hit 21.00 - expect some resistance to occur - why? This is due to the barrier to be broken through. We will now anticipate the next target of 26.00 at 20.5 we closed 200 units to cash in 450pips - great partial take! COT data: Long Short Total %Long %Short Avg_13 62,368 28,887 91,255 69% 31% Avg_20 61,214 26,449 87,663 70% 30% Avg 50 83,059 35,629 118,688 70% 30% Avg_130 84,123 36,227 120,349 70% 30% Technically what has happened? Price was severely undervalued and silver is an important commodity to use for manufacturing sectors. Commodity currencies rely on this as an export factor e.g. CAD, AUD, MXN, ZAR , RUB, NZD. We had a great wedge pattern where we entered on a nice engulfing daily candle which broke to the upside. Price has hit a nice supply zone at 18.3-18.9 zone. The price in this area can reject and retrace which is an option we are looking for; however keep in mind the bullish structure, price has alot of upside potential. If price rejects, we will look for a nice clean break from the zone and hedge. Fundamentals: Coronavirus re-opening of industries and subsequent purchase power of retailers. Fear commodity but less attractive than Gold and platinum. Cheap metal but gains are very high and attractive China vs USA trade war Australia vs China mini trade war. Mexico has large coronavirus numbers but largest producer of silver . Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by LupaCapital
GBP USD - Risk on scenario Hello traders and analysts, Here is our take on GBP USD - the trade is active, with FX it is a moving target so we will look for an additional entry upon a nice supply up coming but will it hold? the answer is yes, so price reacted at our 0.705 and resisted - now we have a long aiming to close into the purple zone. COT report: Long Short Total %Long %Short GBP Avg_13 32,923 49,892 82,815 40% 60% Avg_20 41,245 43,918 85,163 48% 52% Avg_130 43,323 68,286 111,609 41% 59% AVG_50 43,547 67,458 111,004 41% 59% USD Avg_13 18,508 12,046 30,554 60% 40% Avg_20 19,886 11,437 31,323 63% 37% AVG 50 31,006 11,782 42,788 71% 29% Avg_130 31,573 11,946 43,520 71% 29% Technicals: We have a good opportunity here to break the trendline as the triple top formation failed with heavy resistance at 1.265XX and weekly fibonacci level of 0.705 this could be a strong opportunity to sell again. However, be aware of the above supply which is a full retracement from lows of 1.14 - 1.15 if price reacts and falls back into the range - look for a range sell, however if price shows a breakout and closes above with a weakened dollar. look long There is bullish sentiment on the 4hour, but daily we can still a nice range here - it is shaking out a lot of investors which is good for liquidity grabs and flow of funds between the players. We are playing the supply and demand here between bulls and bears. This is all that matters. for this trade however we are in short. Add sell positions if a fakeout of the retest of the breakout to create a lower low. Fundamentals Coronavirus in the EU and UK - both showing cases in respective countries, Euro stimulus package has not been agreed so can show signs of strength of GBP if this fails to transpire. Brexit talks - will send the pound with huge strength once a deal is reached - inverse will send EUR to almost parity if talks end and no deal is reached Keep a watch for manufacturing orders in Germany and any causes for concern within France, Italy, Germany and Spain which can drag data components down. Vaccination attempts to drive market sentiment. USD safehaven upon tensions between HK move on China vs USA debate. USA - cases in multiple states are high risk, the disconnect is unbelievable. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Long
by LupaCapital
GBP USD - Risk on or risk off?Hello traders and analysts, Here is our take on GBP USD - the trade is active, with FX it is a moving target so we will look for an additional entry upon a nice supply up coming but will it hold? COT report: Long Short Total %Long %Short GBP Avg_13 32,923 49,892 82,815 40% 60% Avg_20 41,245 43,918 85,163 48% 52% Avg_130 43,323 68,286 111,609 41% 59% AVG_50 43,547 67,458 111,004 41% 59% USD Avg_13 18,508 12,046 30,554 60% 40% Avg_20 19,886 11,437 31,323 63% 37% AVG 50 31,006 11,782 42,788 71% 29% Avg_130 31,573 11,946 43,520 71% 29% Technicals: We have a good opportunity here to break the trendline as the triple top formation failed with heavy resistance at 1.265XX and weekly fibonacci level of 0.705 this could be a strong opportunity to sell again. However, be aware of the above supply which is a full retracement from lows of 1.14 - 1.15 if price reacts and falls back into the range - look for a range sell, however if price shows a breakout and closes above with a weakened dollar. look long There is bullish sentiment on the 4hour, but daily we can still a nice range here - it is shaking out a lot of investors which is good for liquidity grabs and flow of funds between the players. We are playing the supply and demand here between bulls and bears. This is all that matters. for this trade however we are in short. Add sell positions if a fakeout of the retest of the breakout to create a lower low. Fundamentals Coronavirus in the EU and UK - both showing cases in respective countries, Euro stimulus package has not been agreed so can show signs of strength of GBP if this fails to transpire. Brexit talks - will send the pound with huge strength once a deal is reached - inverse will send EUR to almost parity if talks end and no deal is reached Keep a watch for manufacturing orders in Germany and any causes for concern within France, Italy, Germany and Spain which can drag data components down. Vaccination attempts to drive market sentiment. USD safehaven upon tensions between HK move on China vs USA debate. USA - cases in multiple states are high risk, the disconnect is unbelievable. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
by LupaCapital
GBP AUD - long term buys - impulse into the range againHello traders and analysts, We have an update to our GBP AUD trading range - price is still very much ranging but we have managed to yet again catch a trade to the upside whilst still hedging the downside movements. Over the end of last week, we saw the Aussie get stronger but was not enough to break through to 1.78 area. so the demand zone still stands and the range is in play and active. COT Data: Aussie Long Short Total %Long %Short Avg_13 30,441 54,256 84,697 36% 64% Avg_20 33,958 63,290 97,248 35% 65% Avg_50 39,133 76,363 115,496 34% 66% Avg_130 38,877 76,625 115,502 34% 66% COT data: Pound Avg_13 32,923 49,892 82,815 40% 60% Avg_20 41,245 43,918 85,163 48% 52% Avg_130 43,323 68,286 111,609 41% 59% AVG_50 43,547 67,458 111,004 41% 59% Technicals: What can we see technically? - Daily bearish but breaking momentum short in the channel. - weekly bearish zone touched - bounce from the demand zone zone. - we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct - this has now occurred. - we have made lower lows and lower highs- showing the correction - now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks formed and a reversal to the upside - this has been boosted by GBP Tuesday as of writing. -AUD USD ranging market looking to break 0.70 for upside strength. -Large downside gap to fall to if price looks to create a new low structure in bearish confluence and momentum trading. - COT report in favour of AUD however, risk off will shift sentiment. Fundamentals Aussie is a commodity currency so is highly affected with exports of natural resources, Gold , Oil , Grains, Copper etc. Victoria lockdown has caused issues for the restart of the border openings USD outlook affects the progress of strength for Australia. Coronavirus within the US sees an affect on the economy for the US as a result affects directly Australia where the index correlates. USD sees 1Trillion package for stimulus package. Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
Long
by LupaCapital
GBP JPY shortingHello analyst and traders, we have our update for GBP JPY - price finally rejected the daily 50%, we entered a little late but with GBP JPY - you need resilience as Gold does it's own moves with investor sentiment as a safehaven likewise with the Yen. Looking at the technicals; - using Fibonacci retracement from the top of the structure to the bottom, we have a clear liquidity zone between 50-61.8% retracements. - Fibonacci has shown a nice fakeout in previous days in which was a great place to react. COT report data GBP & Yen Yen Long Short Total % long %short AVG 13 52,126 26,087 78,214 67% 33% AVG 20 52,767 35,495 88,261 62% 38% AVG 50 50,276 50,470 100,746 53% 47% GBP Long Short Total % long %short AVG 13 31,932 47,607 79,538 41% 59% AVG 20 42,237 43,334 85,572 49% 51% AVG 50 43,326 68,512 111,838 41% 59% With reference to previous postings, these are still very much in play. Technicals: What can we see technically? - Daily bearish but breaking momentum short in the channel. - weekly bearish zone touched - bounce from the demand zone - we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct - this has now occurred. so now we reject the 136 level. - now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks formed and a reversal to the upside - this has been boosted by GBP Tuesday as of writing. - With Gold going up we can see some nice downside for GJ -Large downside gap to fall to if price looks to create a new low structure in bearish confluence and momentum trading. - COT report in favour of Yen. Fundamentals Aussie is a commodity currency so is highly affected with exports of natural resources, Gold , Oil , Grains, Copper etc. UK lock down has caused issues for the restart of the border, Brexit news is also a kicker for bearish news. USD cases, will still cause strength of safe haven currencies. Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
Short
by LupaCapital
AUD USD - awaiting direction - bias still shortHello traders and analysts, So currently we are in a range - and we will need to be reactive here on the four hour time frame in order to see where price will show us, rejections for buys or sells. What can be shown technically? MA Longs Short Total Long Short Avg_13 27,228 56,775 84,003 33% 67% Avg_20 33,541 66,392 99,933 33.55% 66.45% Avg_50 38,626 77,956 116,582 33% 67% So why is price bullish? Great question - at this present moment the USD is still showing signs of weakness, which is a tactic by the US government to create benefits for imports and exports - Trump is all about business so the sentiment of an attraction to a weak dollar is pivotal. Technical set up: Green zone - Weekly imbalance zone Blue zone - we have a nice supply zone which will need retesting 4 hour Fibonacci retracement is showing signs of Bullish momentum to go for a retest of the 0.703 area wick. At the moment the COT data shows signs of weakness but profits are still being taken and extended. We have two possible sell zones shown of where price will react for our view. Also is a buy position if price shows bullish signs. Fundamentals: USD stimulus package has not been agreed so can show signs of strength of GBP if this fails to transpire. Failure to lockdown the country and social distance for states.. cases growing. Vaccination attempts to drive market sentiment. - pump and dump for stocks who claim to have breakthroughs. USD safehaven upon tensions between HK move on China vs USA debate. USA - cases in multiple states are high risk, the disconnect is unbelievable. twitter hack will affect tech stocks and S&P for privacy laws. election taking place in November. AUS - Victorian cases all time high, borders between states are looking to re-open with exclusion of NSW and VIC. AUS has seen large progress with stopping COVID and has a weak currency battered by the USD in order to create strong trade balance and tourism prospects. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
by LupaCapital
GBP USD update trade failed triple top?Hello traders and analysts, Here is our take on GBP USD - the trade is active, with FX it is a moving target so we will look for an additional entry upon a nice wick rejection. COT report: Long Short Total %Long %Short GBP AVG 13 31,932 47,607 79,538 41% 59% AVG 20 42,237 43,334 85,572 49% 51% AVG 130 43,170 69,339 112,509 41% 59% USD 20,233 10,666 30,899 65% 35% 20,926 11,028 31,954 65% 35% 34,840 17,550 52,390 67% 33% Technicals: We have a good opportunity here to break the trendline as the triple top formation failed with heavy resistance at 1.265XX There is bullish sentiment on the 4hour, but daily we can still a nice range here - it is shaking out alot of investors which is good for liquidity grabs and flow of funds between the players. We are playing the supply and demand here between bulls and bears. This is all that matters. for this trade however we are in short. Add sell positions if a fakeout of the retest of the breakout to create a lower low. Fundamentals Coronavirus in the EU and UK - both showing cases in respective countries, Euro stimulus package has not been agreed so can show signs of strength of GBP if this fails to transpire. Brexit talks - will send the pound with huge strength once a deal is reached - inverse will send EUR to almost parity if talks end and no deal is reached Keep a watch for manufacturing orders in Germany and any causes for concern within France, Italy, Germany and Spain which can drag data components down. Vaccination attempts to drive market sentiment. USD safehaven upon tensions between HK move on China vs USA debate. USA - cases in multiple states are high risk, the disconnect is unbelievable. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital
DXY strength - with the trendline intactHello traders and analysts, We have just purchased a position in our investment allocation to get some nice exposure to offset the portfolio. You can buy either on brokers the DXY or investment fund version, less leverage but safer protection for capital Note: price can break down to 95, but if this does - re-entry will be more prominent for longs Below is the COT data provided Avg_13 20,233 10,666 30,899 65% 35% Avg_20 20,926 11,028 31,954 65% 35% AVG 50 31,749 11,819 43,569 72% 29% Technicals: All time high S&P, NAS and US30 - looking to create double top V-shaped correction shows pure strength and no pullbacks retrace shows slow accumulation from 2011 - 2019 so alot of growth broke down. Fundamentals: USD stimulus package has not been agreed so can show signs of strength of GBP if this fails to transpire. Failure to lockdown the country and social distance. Vaccination attempts to drive market sentiment. - pump and dump for stocks who claim to have breakthroughs. USD safehaven upon tensions between HK move on China vs USA debate. USA - cases in multiple states are high risk, the disconnect is unbelievable. twitter hack will affect tech stocks and S&P for privacy laws. election taking place in november. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
TVC:DXYLong
by LupaCapital
1
GBP AUD - scalp W formationHello traders and analysts just a quick idea here - price is showing a nice hourly pattern for an inverted head and shoulders or a W formation. Be aware price can fall down to todays lows of 1.79340 but ofcourse confirmation is key to success as price is reactive. Trade your plan. Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
Long
by LupaCapital
TUI AG There is a lot of profit margin to reach the upper imbalance. This is a stock we are currently buying and have enough to risk to make the position risk free now after charges. Technically we have two very strong supply zones. Here the sell off was due to fear of the coronavirus effect. The airline industry has majority of which halted.. however the cheap price has now offered lows of 1999, so a great opportunity as destinations open up. Good luck in this trade If you like our work, please leave a comment and or like. We take requests for stocks, currencies to analyse so let us know.
XETR:TUI1Long
by LupaCapital
2
VIX S&P 500 buy long termHello traders and analysts, Here is our insight to the VIX which represents the volatility of the S&P500. Linked below is the idea relating to the S&P500. - S&P we have an island formation Capitulation - where surrender or give up the recapture of lost gains as a result of sharp sell offs. This is the zone where investors indicate where price has toppled to. Gold is still rallying to so pay close attention to Gold buys. Technicals: Divergence formed between the VIX sending a great message to the S&P500 that price has now passed beyond UTAD - price can reach this double top by pure greed, we cannot do anything on this other than wait. From an imbalance method, we have a good double top retest which is showing profit and greed taking. Price has seen a bounce back to 'normal priced of demand' however this is not really how halted economies can return so fast. it is artificial growth so after the constant printing by the FED their will be a sovereign debt issue amongst multiple nations predominantly G13 members. LEDC countries will suffer just as much but at a wider scale with pressure for providing on a lower budget. Divergence - we did not use this but looking at the pattern, we have a huge distinguishing gap. Showing disconnect. Fundamentals: US election rallies before taking place at the end of the year with campaigning. We have NFP numbers showing millions return to work.. but also high unemployment 11%, state wide issues with re-opening. Trade war with China, Hong Kong unfolding with US responding High figures in multiple states which are concerns for large communities. Fiscal intervention in July, August for stimulus.. constant printing money is not good for the economy. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
TVC:VIXLong
by LupaCapital
GA trading range update - short near term, still longHello traders and analysts, We have an update to our GBP AUD trading range - price is still very much ranging but we have managed to yet again catch a trade to the upside whilst still hedging the downside movements. We added a new sell position in order to protect longs, keep in mind this is risky - but until price shows a break of the range of clear downside movements. This accumulation range will build up a big move up or down. COT Data: Aussie Long Short Total %Long %Short Avg_20 33,541 66,392 99,933 33.55% 66.45% COT data: Pound 34,424 55,414 89,838 38% 62% 31,267 45,396 76,663 42% 58% AVG 13 weekly With reference to previous postings, these are still very much in play. Technicals: What can we see technically? - Daily bearish but breaking momentum short in the channel. - weekly bearish zone touched - bounce from the demand zone zone. - we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct - this has now occurred. - we have made lower lows and lower highs- showing the correction - now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks formed and a reversal to the upside - this has been boosted by GBP Tuesday as of writing. -AUD USD ranging market looking to break 0.70 for upside strength. -Large downside gap to fall to if price looks to create a new low structure in bearish confluence and momentum trading. - COT report in favour of AUD however, risk off will shift sentiment. Fundamentals Aussie is a commodity currency so is highly affected with exports of natural resources, Gold , Oil , Grains, Copper etc. Victoria lockdown has caused issues for the restart of the border openings USD outlook affects the progress of strength for Ausrtralia. Coronavirus within the US sees an affect on the economy for the US as a result affects directly Australia where the index correlates. Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
Long
by LupaCapital
XAG USD update - pay attention to 19.5 - 20 as a supplyHello traders & analysts, Here is out latest update for Silver . We are bullish and would like to share our out look for the next opportunities which can take place. COT data: 78,746 longs 65.6% 41,145 shorts 34.3% 46.5 24.3 for open interest Technically what has happened? Price was severely undervalued and silver is an important commodity to use for manufacturing sectors. Commodity currencies rely on this as an export factor e.g. CAD, AUD, MXN, ZAR , RUB, NZD. We had a great wedge pattern where we entered on a nice engulfing daily candle which broke to the upside. Price has hit a nice supply zone at 18.3-18.9 zone. The price in this area can reject and retrace which is an option we are looking for; however keep in mind the bullish structure, price has alot of upside potential. If price rejects, we will look for a nice clean break from the zone and hedge. Fundamentals: Coronavirus re-opening of industries and subsequent purchase power of retailers. Fear commodity but less attractive than Gold and platinum. Cheap metal but gains are very high and attractive China vs USA trade war Australia vs China mini trade war. Mexico has large coronavirus numbers but largest producer of silver . Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by LupaCapital
GBP AUD - long term buys update - accumulation rangeHello traders and analysts, We have an update to our GBP AUD trading range - price is still very much ranging but we have managed to yet again catch a trade to the upside whilst still hedging the downside movements. COT Data: Aussie Long Short Total %Long %Short 40,025 42,933 82,958 48% 52% 27,228 56,775 84,003 33% 67% AVG 13 weekly COT data: Pound 34,424 55,414 89,838 38% 62% 31,267 45,396 76,663 42% 58% AVG 13 weekly Technicals: What can we see technically? - Daily bearish but breaking momentum short in the channel. - weekly bearish zone touched - bounce from the demand zone zone. - we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct - this has now occurred. - we have made lower lows and lower highs- showing the correction - now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks formed and a reversal to the upside - this has been boosted by GBP Tuesday as of writing. -AUD USD ranging market looking to break 0.70 for upside strength. -Large downside gap to fall to if price looks to create a new low structure in bearish confluence and momentum trading. - COT report in favour of AUD however, risk off will shift sentiment. Fundamentals Aussie is a commodity currency so is highly affected with exports of natural resources, Gold, Oil, Grains, Copper etc. Victoria lockdown has caused issues for the restart of the border openings USD outlook affects the progress of strength for Ausrtralia. Coronavirus within the US sees an affect on the economy for the US as a result affects directly Australia where the index correlates. Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
by LupaCapital
EUR GBP - channel - potential to breakHello traders and analysts, Here is our take on EUR GBP COT report: Long Short Total %Long %Short GBP 31,267 45,396 76,663 42% 58% Euro 174,258 86,043 260,301 67% 33% Technicals: We have a good opportunity here to break the trendline as the top of the channel was rejected However - weekly level has not been tested, so we still have an opportunity for a false break and back up. Rising wedge is forming - where price can reject from the top. for this trade however we are in short. Add buy positions if a fakeout of the channel occurs as the channel will create a lower high. Fundamentals Coronavirus in the EU and UK - both showing cases in respective countries, Euro stimulus package has not been agreed so can show signs of strength of GBP if this fails to transpire. Brexit talks - will send the pound with huge strength once a deal is reached - inverse will send EUR to almost parity if talks end and no deal is reached Keep a watch for manufacturing orders in Germany and any causes for concern within France, Italy, Germany and Spain which can drag data components down. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital
Visa double top and beyond or sell?Hello traders and analysts, Here we have our first sharing of Visa (V) a stock we have held for a long time due to the constant growth and consistent dividend returns quarterly. Technicals - Purchased 2nd order batch during the break out of the monthly zone . - but the zone is a monthly zone so keep it technical this is important to show a good demand zone. Weekly levels - identified as potential supply zones but the monthly double top formation kept showing a strong bullish momentum. Weekly zones became new supplies in the swap zones. Notice the imbalance candles which are present inside these zones. Fundamentals: warning of economic downturn with spending cuts to households - with millions relying on stimulus paychecks - credit is still a valid use of fund transfers of course and will always be, however the slowdown will become clear. Price fared very strongly during the crisis of 2008, with a strong growth retained throughout the recessional period. However, be aware of consolidation between 2011 - 2015 - slow sustainable growth but not many down periods to provide demands. The recent 2018 - 2020 shows larger swings with multiple fundamentals in play. Always look left. The next option is to consider once in the supply zone all time high, what will price show us? A strong retest to produce and all time high or show a rejection upon the supply, we do not predict the future, but prepare for forward scenarios as price reacts. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
NYSE:VLong
by LupaCapital