BTC USD - anticipating the low in 2023Update to the full version which is published June 6th 2022.
Review the full article below in linked -
Second link is a private update - now made public.
G'day traders, investors, analysts,
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon a long term trading strategy looking for Fresh Demand/Supply zones.
This is tagged Neutral due to the overall monthly Supply PCP in control, until the opportunity of a rejection of the pattern completion to a fresh demand tap has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Until this criteria is met - no trade is taken until reactive, break or curve is confirmed. The methodology here is to trade spot and or invest, futures contracts to hold positions for periods over a span of weeks to months. If this is not specifically aligned to 'your strategy' then at least appreciate the structure.
Risk Warning
Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual.
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Orange = Daily
Technical Setup Acronyms
Key:
CP - Continuation pattern
DBD - Drop Base Drop
OP - Original price
DCA - Dollar Cost Average
FL - Fresh Levels
Check the updates to see where the logarithmic charts have taken us.
Analysis's below
Original outlook and full in depth analysis below.
BTC - Outlooks for the Future
A smaller counter trade buy and sell opportunity provided below;
Daily update Short Term CP.
Monthly Chart (no log)
The monthly has created the supply zone at the all time high with confirmations provided on the weekly with a $9,000 ending at a a slight bullish indecision provided a test of the monthly curve (bullish), price broke and retested this with the consecutive bearish move. These two weeks from a $55,000 confirmation sell, provides a fresh supply zone.
Price then on began the slippery slope of creating a 'Low', whereby price put in a lower low, before looing back to a pivot position back between December 2021 with the four weeks, creating a 'base' which aligned with the market structure (left).
The weekly log chart shows
price is below the fair value of BTC comprised of time of writing ($25,100) - technical traders will realise this is the previous PCP level and supply.
Price has now formulated within the weekly zone as a retest, however yet to indicate a deep test of the zone (down to $15,000). Refer to article on historical diminishing returns and the lows of previous years (BTC - outlooks for the future).
The latest Supply FL between $23-25.1k shows the sheer strength of the bearish moves taking place at present, along with the high curve which is being respected.
updates
price has now shown the mid regression band is in affect, where by price is well below the market fair value - with the weekly chart delayed by one day. Refer to BTC USD where the latest engulfing on the daily chart has been provided.
Four Day chart
The weekly and Four day provides the clear picture where the steep curve is intact and yet to be broken on a retest. This is due to the OL still yet to be tapped and the current zone acting as a strong tested zone - whether this will hold.
The four day supplies are nested within the weekly chart so the above information holds as the structure of the market is outlined above.
Daily Chart
Where can price go? - it looks clear upon the current price cycle that price is looking towards the retest of the double bottom at the low of $17,500, this depends on the current double daily bottom of the $18.2k to be over come first.
The downward channel as been creating multiple impulse, corrective and subsequent impulses again - this is due to the market structure (left) this enables the price action to show where price can free fall and where a hurdle has occurred - forming a pivot point for a correction or a consolidative base formation.
latest update
Daily Chart re-aligned for present values as at 16th Dec 2022
all notes above still apply - the only difference now is that after the break of the smaller channel - BTC is indicating a short term pivot to a selling level to continue the sells.
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Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Focus on investing for long term positional moves
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LVPA MMXXII
