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NZD USD - Arrival to the weekly awaits Series 7G'Day Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged neutral, until the opportunity for a close reaches the profit taking zone. This will be activated as long, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at current we are Bullish Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. We are live Previous analysis using sells - price will always revert back to the original Fresh Level - (from here on, Fresh Level). This zone will be retested as the monthly and weekly departure needed to overall capture the FL based around $0.665-0.652 range. The reason for this is clear as the FL has a 80-90 day consolidative zone where price has used price action to accumulate a strong buying imbalance. At the current daily chart - price is conforming a Rally Base Rally, at present price is possibly forming a Base, this is where price will reconsolidate the strong zone and present another rally towards. Monthly This upper imbalance has been established through the top of the wick down to the close of the body on the candlestick in focus - taking place July 2017. Why here? Well this has been a previous top of the structure where price has tested by looking right to 2018 and has been rejected where no wicks have created higher highs, solely lower highs, giving the high probability of this zone being the buyers imbalance take profit zone. As with Imbalances, these are retested just like double bottom patterns and also on lower timeframes, considered consolidation patterns. The lower imbalance which aligns with the Fibonacci extension (inverse) where a change of hands will occur with as the monthly candlesticks show a correctional two months - this whilst on the previous "covid" low - upon the rejection the imbalance formation had become this zone - reasons; 1. Price correction relieves the buying pressure and discounts additional opportunities 2. The second reason is due to the the previous Fibonacci "0" on the monthly aligns to the -0.618, -0.786 zone on the inverse Fibonacci.* See here* Weekly Chart - as posted The weekly imbalance zooming into the correction based on the engulfing move from the true imbalance rejection - formed an eight week period of trading ranges which tested tested the engulfing weekly low netting the the low , allowing buyers to begin the process of establishing the trading range as well as lower time frame of a rising channel creating higher lows and higher high wicks. From here this would ensue a breakout for buyers as a well established monthly range at the pivotal level gives a 95%confidence for a buying imbalance to continue to extension targets back to the arrival upon the OP. Where the price chart was back in Dec 2021 Daily Chart Bearish Continuation Judging by looking left - the zone below "0" has been tested - price will look to breakout from the low to correct to 0.694X as a test of the Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
by LupaCapital
US OIL - $100 move completed, Congrats!!See below for the tracking of analysis - happy to say, target achieved for the long term position holds. Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Oil is an investment, so here is the technical and logical analysis behind the long term investment. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Monthly Add positions upon the following, clear directional sell hedges Confirmation upon the daily Higher timeframes provide a clearer image of high probability of CP making natural moves aligned with Indexes, VIX and commodity pairs. Look for a three box setup, whereby draw your imbalance, a upper and lower confidence correctional move and set alerts, limits. The strong imbalance lays within the $57 - $67.5, whereby the monthly level has been tested leaving netting wicks upon the imbalance body highlighted. Weekly The weekly shows the strong whipsaw effect for the bearish indication however this ultimately created the activation for further longs to be added. With imbalances, these are always tested. Due to a first test needing a solid rested, the daily will present a closer look to the whipsaw movement October analysis Buy Zone was between 61.8 - 66.8 $ Daily Chart - buying from the retrace. Price had made a great opportunity here for a buying opportunity whereby price will test the new established Daily imbalance. The price has shown now a breakout of the downward corrective channel. see here The current daily chart This shows three potential areas whereby price has clearly marked three daily imbalances - two of which are stronger zones. . Price originally broke from the channel, and reached the desired $80 zone, where a strong pivot is reached at a strong first touch of the -0.27 or on the monthly chart a top of the previous sell off initiation. Price begins to pivot off the fresh level and reverts back to a strong pivot, which is linked close to "0" of the Fibonacci monthly sequence. This offers a daily imbalance and weekly combination. On the daily, this retests the "0" and also follows the continued downward trendline - which presents an opportunity to create a buying discount. ** Imbalances always retest. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
TVC:USOIL
by LupaCapital
BTC USD - February update [Neutral Stance]G'Day traders, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Are you Long or short? It doesn't matter - there are pips to be made either side. Make your informed choice with risk-calculated decisions. Quick analysis The Monthly Imbalances are set: Add positions upon the following, clear directional sell hedges Confirmation upon the daily Higher timeframes provide a clearer image. Look for a three box setup, whereby draw your imbalance, a upper and lower confidence correctional move and set alerts, limits. Box 1 being imbalance Box 2 being correctional pullback to retest an imbalance. Box 3 Target profit at an imbalance Why these CP Levels were not respected: Here is the after bar pattern showing that sellers are not respecting the zones. Note: Price can develop overtime and does not have to stick to a timeframe of <1 month for a move to occur. There are exceptions to these rules; Confirmation of break/bounces upon imbalances Departure was strong Fresh level - showed lower high formation, based of the fact that the tap of the zone occurs. Using the Monthly and weekly imbalances in conjunction with Fresh levels and original levels - this is how the chart looks The imbalances are clearly defined at the top of the market structure and at the bottom also. The mid-markings are fresh levels or CP levels which indicate pivot points, daily imbalances and combined weekly im Here is the short term timeframe of where price is showing signs of faltering due to the strategy. Basing confirmations upon closes will indicate the opportunity to buy/sell. The strategy at play Using DCA - purchasing from these two levels, will obtain a lower price from BTC, but also will allow the accumulation of savings to put into the market. While smaller increments are being added in the monthly time period, there are periodic levels where price will a larger additional sum to be added within a price range. Tracking of Dominance - 6th October 2021 BTC - 44.69% ETH - 18.51% BNB - 3.19% ADA - 3.11% USDT - 2.95* XRP - 2.22% 6th February 2022 - a QTR review Here is how the numbers look BTC - 42.55% ETH - 19.08% BNB - 3.63% ADA - 2.00% USDT - 4.05* XRP - 1.71% A multi-functional chart tracking; Please review the link below to track the all things BTC BTC.Dominance, correlated against the Crypto Index, vs BTC USD current price. What are the two largest crypto's doing? The Dominance of BTC and ETH are still in play, the networks upon these two still offer the largest value in terms of holdings and pathe the way for Crypto. Keep track of these. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by LupaCapital
3
SPX - A continued buying opportunity? [February]G'Day traders & analyst, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Firstly why has the SPX and US30 become so bullish? Simply put, as the FED Funds have been slashed - and with yields being key to movements of both institutional and retail - credit deposits provide a little return so if the trend is up and to the right, then a standard metric is sure, keep on investing regardless of the high value. This keeps the Shiller ratio and price earnings ratio are seen as "this seems fine" (to view the website to review these metrics, click the link below) - www.multpl.com To further understand this, the use of the cross-asset comparison shows a simplistic view but also a reality. SPX Daily chart A rising channel has always bounced of multiple levels, creating higher lows and subsequently pushing higher towards higher highs to be created. 10 year yields rise, with a 7 year inflation - who would hold bonds during period? The movement of cash exodus from foreign bond holders to place elsewhere has assisted in the fuel. The money from the bond market flows - will be placed into the SPX or NAS100, Small caps other assets. Key: White = channels Orange = higher high trendline Buying was present upon the weekly imbalance Please note, nothing is confirmed, until confirmations are in place using a daily confirmation for example. Time spans may differ for those with different strategies. SPX for those who love moving averages Here is the 200MA, where price is now trading below the 200. What are your thoughts using this simple technical analysis tool? Could this be a fakeout for the sellers? The low has been made, with now two lower high formations which have proved considerable moves to keep a bullish move intact. This corresponds to the weekly imbalance tap. Buying opportunity? An opportunity for a 22.74% est buy opportunity, to those who use Fibonacci as extension targets. Looking to the SPX and the S5TH which refers to the SPX stocks which are trading under the 200MA. The weekly has provided a key move Consumer Sentiment Weekly UMSCENT The Fed has been consuming QE, but ultimately will raise inflation if they feel necessary - despite after down turns. Monetary policy can either tighten or never tighten again - the university of Michigan tracking of consumer sentiment has provided key information that the "average person" is feeling the crunch, where the down turn of sentiment highs have created a low on the weekly, and bounced back, but ultimately now is beginning to show signs of bearish action, where consumer lows at the monthly imbalance - shows Fibonacci retracement extension targets align. VIX weekly Where we are now as at 25/01/2022 Using the tracking below, it is now clear to see the volatility movements which of course takes time to form, but spotting it early like we saw, shows the strong monthly and weekly imbalance which needed a strong suppressive test. ST LOUIS FED 10year breakeven chart fred.stlouisfed.org Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
SP:SPXLong
by LupaCapital
EUR GBP - Quick Take Series 5G'day Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents/Warnings 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. EUR GBP is an investment, so here is the technical and logical analysis behind the long term investment. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Currently on a correctional play, but overall still short. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Quick analysis, shorting due to monthly and weekly timeframes The Monthly Imbalances are set: Add positions upon the following, clear directional sell hedges Confirmation upon the daily Higher timeframes provide a clearer image. Look for a three box setup, whereby draw your imbalance, a upper and lower confidence correctional move and set alerts, limits. Box 1 being imbalance Box 2 being correctional pullback to retest an imbalance. Box 3 Target profit at an imbalance Monthly These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 0.95 whereby the Euro Failed to overcome, this however was the pivotal imbalance to sell from a Fibonacci extension perspective. A large zone formed here on a monthly as previous historical monthly wicks have shown immediate whipsaw effects, revert to the daily chart in to see three examples of a trading week immediately 'tailing off' During February, March 2020 - the price surge accelerated growth but instantly rejected, the timeframe is sped up, but imbalance method still applies here as the zone failed to hold. GBP still holds a resounding power over the EU to prevent parity. The Monthly lower high upon the chart formed in September and December respectively, both coincide with Fig 1.0 Long term imbalance pathways It's clear, either sell upon confirmation with current positions Await the buying opportunity to reach a weekly 'resistance', but in reality is a pivot imbalance where price will form a sell opportunity. Weekly Imbalances Upon the weekly chart price has created a short opportunity which extended out of the previous weekly imbalance and has been previously tested twice. Subsequently creating two lower highs. Price had corrected upon an engulfing breakout candle after a consolidation wave which adopted the next move. Upon the breakout of this zone, price now walks up to the monthly imbalance and once the zone is breached, price is expected to retrace to build on the order block as a reversion pivot Selling imbalance, the breakout and retest is a strong reset upon the imbalance zone, however, the price channel is still forming overall selling trends, so waiting for the confirmation upon a daily will show sell as the engulfing bullish candle will indicate a push for short buyers, but long term, sellers are in control. Daily Imbalance Here is the daily logical trendlines which show where price can break in the short term - before the next swing is prominent. Note the imbalance here (upper) is strong in terms of failing to be breached, whereby the wick of the high failed to nett off, meaning the selling imbalance is >95% confidence of selling. EUR USD overlay Something of interest, showing a stronger USD in conjunction with the SPX - again this correlated but not causative. Denote the lows of the SPX has followed with EUR USD creating lower highs. Review USD JPY, SPX Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
Short
by LupaCapital
6
USD JPY - Quick take series 4G'day Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents/Warnings 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. USD JPY is an investment, so here is the technical and logical analysis behind the long term investment. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Currently on a correctional play, but overall still long. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Quick analysis, The Monthly Imbalances are set: Add positions upon the following, clear directional sell hedges Confirmation upon the daily Higher timeframes provide a clearer image. Look for a three box setup, whereby draw your imbalance, a upper and lower confidence correctional move and set alerts, limits. Box 1 being imbalance Box 2 being correctional pullback to retest an imbalance. Box 3 Target profit at an imbalance Price has now established a monthly imbalance candle at "0" Swing high. Look to this zone now for a correctional retest as imbalances upon a fresh touch retest in accordance to probability and the structure of the market. Not advised: For scalping purposes - If the desired trader finds a breakout pattern or clear reversal then - follow your strategy. Monthly zones These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 100.00 to be a structural level for the USD. The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 100-102. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a higher low, informing that the buyers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone. Since the previous analysis update - price has now reached the monthly zone between 109.6 - 111.8X which has is show below. The next strong zone identified on the weekly, monthly and daily as per below shows 113-112.5 lows as a strong long confirmation upon the imbalance. Bi-monthly Here is the two week chart which also shows the same scenario taking place, where a strong pivot point is now providing a test of a supply pivot to overall refuel the buyers. To those who are patient, daily confirmations will indicate a scaling in positional play. 113.27 shows an imbalance candle which is due a retest should price look for a "bearish correction" using the SPX as a reference point. Upon selling confirmations for short term sellers - use the daily close and monitor the three box combination before entering. Weekly zone Upon the weekly chart price has created a long opportunity which extended out of the previous weekly imbalance and has created a new zone. Price had corrected upon an engulfing breakout candle after a consolidation wave which adopted the next move. Upon the breakout of this zone, price now walks up to the monthly imbalance and once the zone is breached, price is expected to retrace to build on the order block as a reversion pivot . Using the Fibonacci sequence and combination of the price pivoted back to the -0.27% and currently poised between the -0.618% which both align. So from this rejection, using probability the imbalance has now formed a strong block. Daily confirmations for longs Here is the daily logical trendlines which show where price can break in the short term - before the next swing is prominent. Crossover between the SPX500 & USD JPY Something of interest, showing a stronger USD in conjunction with the SPX - again this correlated but not causative. Denote the lows of the SPX has followed wit USD JPY higher lows. With Targets for USD JPY - the Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
Long
by LupaCapital
3
US OIL - Quick take series 3G'day Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents/Warnings 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. USOIL is an investment, so here is the technical and logical analysis behind the long term investment. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Monthly Add positions upon the following, clear directional sell hedges Confirmation upon the daily Higher timeframes provide a clearer image. Look for a three box setup, whereby draw your imbalance, a upper and lower confidence correctional move and set alerts, limits. The strong imbalance lays within the $57 - $67.5, whereby the monthly level has been tested leaving netting wicks upon the imbalance body highlighted. Box 1 being imbalance Box 2 being correctional pullback to retest an imbalance. Box 3 Target profit at an imbalance Weekly The weekly shows the strong whipsaw effect for the bearish indication however this ultimately created the activation for further longs to be added. With imbalances, these are always tested. Due to a first test needing a solid rested, the daily will present a closer look to the whipsaw movement There is a clear downward movement which applying a Fibonacci shows a strong squeeze of price fluctuating between the 70.5 Fibo pivot and the "0" daily level. Price targets aligned with the -0.27 Fibonacci. From the Squeeze, price had broken out and confirmed a daily close with a strong engulfing candle. October analysis Buy Zone was between 61.8 - 66.8 $ Daily Chart - buying from the retrace. Price had made a great opportunity here for a buying opportunity whereby price will test the new established Daily imbalance. The price has shown now a breakout of the downward corrective channel. see here The current daily chart This shows three potential areas whereby price has clearly marked three daily imbalances - two of which are stronger zones. . Price originally broke from the channel, and reached the desired $80 zone, where a strong pivot is reached at a strong first touch of the -0.27 or on the monthly chart a top of the previous sell off initiation. Price begins to pivot off the fresh level and reverts back to a strong pivot, which is linked close to "0" of the Fibonacci monthly sequence. This offers a daily imbalance and weekly combination. On the daily, this retests the "0" and also follows the continued downward trendline - which presents an opportunity to create a buying discount. ** Imbalances always retest. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
TVC:USOILLong
by LupaCapital
9
ETH - Quick series (2)Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Monthly The monthly has indicate clear buying imbalances upon the price climbing. But the monthly distinctly plots a strong zone ahead where Fibonacci extension on the monthly plot and weekly Latest reference, has provided a buying opportunity, which also co-incides with the below weekly chart. Quick analysis, The Monthly Imbalances are set: Add positions upon the following, clear directional sell hedges Confirmation upon the daily Higher timeframes provide a clearer image. Look for a three box setup, whereby draw your imbalance, a upper and lower confidence correctional move and set alerts, limits. Box 1 being imbalance Box 2 being correctional pullback to retest an imbalance. Box 3 Target profit at an imbalance Price has now established a monthly imbalance candle at "0" Swing high. Look to this zone now for a correctional retest as imbalances upon a fresh touch retest in accordance to probability and the structure of the market. Not advised: For scalping purposes - If the desired trader finds a breakout pattern or clear reversal then - follow your strategy. Weekly correctional Price currently sits upon the -0.618% Fibonacci as a profit zone. On the Monthly, price is now looking to push higher, but buyers are exhausting and need to correct to change hands on a weekly level. Hence "0" is a probable scenario for retesting. Bi-monthly Here is the two week chart which also shows the same scenario taking place, where a strong pivot point is now providing a test of a supply pivot to overall refuel the buyers. To those who are patient, daily confirmations will indicate a scaling in positional play. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by LupaCapital
4
CHF JPY - buying on correctional - Quick take seriesHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Quick analysis, The Monthly Imbalances are set: Add positions upon the following, clear directional sell hedges Confirmation upon the daily Higher timeframes provide a clearer image. Look for a three box setup, whereby draw your imbalance, a upper and lower confidence correctional move and set alerts, limits. Monthly The monthly has indicate clear buying imbalances upon the price climbing. But the monthly distinctly plots a strong zone ahead where Fibonacci extension on the monthly plot and weekly Latest reference, has provided a buying opportunity, which also co-incides with the below weekly chart. Box 1 being imbalance Box 2 being correctional pullback to retest an imbalance. Box 3 Target profit at an imbalance Price has now established a monthly imbalance candle at "0" Swing high. Look to this zone now for a correctional retest as imbalances upon a fresh touch retest in accordance to probability and the structure of the market. Not advised: For scalping purposes - If the desired trader finds a breakout pattern or clear reversal then - follow your strategy. Weekly correctional Price currently sits upon the -0.618% Fibonacci as a profit zone. On the Monthly, price is now looking to push higher, but buyers are exhausting and need to correct to change hands on a weekly level. Hence "0" is a probable scenario for retesting. Bi-monthly Here is the two week chart which also shows the same scenario taking place, where a strong pivot point is now providing a test of a supply pivot to overall refuel the buyers. To those who are patient, daily confirmations will indicate a scaling in positional play. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
Long
by LupaCapital
2
Dash USD - Buy and hold for 2022Hello Traders and Analysts, Welcome to 2022. This year, less posting, but more closer measurement analysing a smaller group of pairs. This refines analysis and provides clearer insights, while the principles of investment are still covered in detail. Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Note* this analysis is a positional accumulation using a cost average upon positional aggregation. Short term losses incurred will not be realised, instead buying opportunities will be added. For CFD purposes, positions can be added with wider stop losses but minimal risk lost. Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly Imbalance for buying The main criteria for longs Strong wicks showing that the zone has failed to close within the imbalance. Net close out of the imbalance using August 20 - this coincides with the new monthly wicks proceeding creating higher highs. We have an inside bar which essentially on the monthly provides a bear trap - look down below for the weekly to see the change of hands closer. Looking left, the monthly candlesticks have created moves to establish supply imbalances. Adding supply imbalance as targets Structure understanding Using the Fibonacci from price formations - this has established zone for profit targets and change of hands zones which is a logical positional play in technical analysis. Things which are critical to understand here The swing low of the Fibonacci starts at "1", whereby price has established a strong imbalance candle The other established area is the retracement from the high, which >90% confidence within back testing scenarios across 11 crypto pairs, the established supply imbalance from the "0" or top of the swing - (which also aligns with a previous wick close). Price will look to a weekly pivot point. Price will extend to -0.618 or 1.1618 Fibonacci, which will provide a zone where price will enter a profit taking zone and subsequently a over buying imbalance and now create a selling imbalance. Not the previous top wick closes in line with the bearish open price. Weekly Imbalances Daily Fibonacci Sequence completed Price now has to break the following levels. I'm aware on the weekly a short opportunity is still present as the monthly zone can still be tested to buy at $108-100 zone, but the monthly also shows a positional change of hands from supply to demand imbalances. If the scenario where a rejection of either -0.27 and or -0.618 is present, then sell positions can be added to hedge or await buying due to the nature of a bear trap in smaller timescales. Let's view the Fibonacci chart The swing high and swing low can be applied, measured sells between $245-$222 would have been a high probability of a selling imbalance, this is due to the gearing of daily candle sticks forming a basis of structure which on the three day chart shows the netting off, where the imbalance meets the close out. 1.1 Here is the three day chart, which shows the selling imbalance where the netting had occurred. (note, on the weekly the wick created a half weekly high within the imbalance zone). What now? Well, two scenarios will occur for the bullish curve 1. being the likelihood of a buying position from a breakout of the buy where price will climb after being squeezed but creates lower highs on the daily and three day chart. 2. The second scenario, is based on the imbalance being retested on a deeper correction whereby the -0.618 or on a higher timeframe, Monthly* - the correction will be based on the wick low (looking left). So long as the chart pushes up and to the right, longs are activated. Buying zones - daily, removed Crypto dominance Possibilities Since it is impossible to predict paths understand scenario analysis I have concluded these two scenarios to create two pathways, there are opportunities to buy accumulate positions here. Orange - follows closer to a daily timeframe Weekly - downside can still occur, but will tail off due to additional volume, cash conversion to buying, profit taking from sellers to buying inputs. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
KRAKEN:DASHUSDLong
by LupaCapital
4
USD CAD - a long path aheadHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly Imbalance Update December Update Price had established itself within the monthly imbalance, had a breakout where the change of hands occurred - aligning with the inverse Fibonacci as previously analysed. From here price retested again which created a high - this aligns with the "range" top, but it is an imbalance zone - where price will look to retest the monthly as price has just reverted from this area. Inverse Fibonacci Monthly. Refer below for the weekly inverse Note the close out of the net highs, which combine with an imbalance formed based off - 'Three white soldiers' Weekly Imbalances Below are the imbalances for the weekly, where the previous low 1.19XX had provided the closing wick for the monthly candle close. The imbalance here is key to understand the rejection and retest of the zone is highly probable. 1. Price closed and matched the May 18th 2015 weekly close - meaning the wick is successfully retested. 2. Price has now hit a pivot point and created a monthly imbalance. Looking to the weekly however, price traded a cluster of candles which shows the 'battle' printing indecision - what does this signify? Imbalance trading from buyers to sellers, sellers to buyers - as a imbalance trader - a trade will be placed here before an aggressive addition later. Update of the weekly chart Price will look to the 0.382 Fibonacci but due to be trading right now within the 0.236/0.382 zone, the trend is still bullish and strong, so ideally around 1.265-80 has a high pivot point - purely based on Daily timeframes. Current weekly A closer look to where we are currently; Price had reverted back to the imbalance at 0.705 Fibonacci as imbalances are retested once a change of hands has begun. To others, trades will refer to this as a double bottom or triple bottom on smaller timeframes. Further explanation: 3. When forming a sell position rally, base rally, or in a market shift 'poising' for a bearish continued market structure, the crucial aspect here is to understand the trading range on the daily and weekly timeframe where the maximum to the pip top of the range identifies with the 1.466 to 1.469X. The significance of this here is purely the closing out of the fractal pattern completing the cycle. Fibonacci Extension Using this pathway build upon how the market cycle repeats, the application of the Fibonacci can be used here to plot next moves for entry areas in conjunction with the higher time frame to use the price path to reach the desired targets. Using the imbalance and Fibonacci tool also assists with trade management in terms of open interest fee's and furthermore exposure in short term trend shifts. Review the DXY This is the weekly here, also a tracking of the DXY is below for full tracking Daily Fibonacci The daily Fibonacci pathway shows a completion of the -0.618 target, where price is now consolidating on a smaller timeframe. A cup and handle pattern is forming on the daily pattern. Previously replayed bars for a new entry Current view As per chart posting Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
BTC USD - buying on the below structure levelsNote* Before commenting, understand this analysis was private released Nov28th - so the anticipated analysis has played out. Revert to the link in the analysis to see the privatised idea. Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances at the desired levels . Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish with a short phase in focus at present. You must be aware of my analysis's - I do not short term trade, and hold positions for periods longer term, this means when trading positions have wider stop losses and risk reward setups for multiple shorter term trades to be taken while in the main position. The idea here is to have overall trades open and to take other positions in between. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Here is the before identified zone of interest which was analysed using the Daily chart The clear 50% Fibonacci and combination of the daily zone is clear for two reasons; I. Using the consolidative order block to the left of the structure - an opportunity to test here is considered a high probability. II. The main order zone of interest is $46,000 on the weekly, but on a shorter term corrective structure, the 50% is a testable zone Monthly The current imbalances are now forming on the Zero Fibonacci structural path of the market. At the present time, price has made lower highs on the previous market top. So in scenario 1; a new higher low wick will form. Scenario 2: A structural break will retest a monthly zone, exhaust and liquidate buyers, then change of hands will occur for the buyers who will look to sweep up on a discounted price factor. Weekly updated chart using Fibonacci The zone speaks for itself where price is now testing the imbalance. Here is the before identified zone of interest which was analysed using the Daily chart The clear 50% Fibonacci and combination of the daily zone is clear for two reasons; I. Using the consolidative order block to the left of the structure - an opportunity to test here is considered a high probability. II. The main order zone of interest is $46,000 on the weekly, but on a shorter term corrective structure, the 50% is a testable zone. t.me Why is this level so important for a daily sell off? Well to put it simply - the imbalance is netted off here with the previous wick high matching a zone of a wick low. The main point or zone of interest is the most important to observe as the imbalance upon the weekly has formed and will now be retested. Upon a retest, it is clear to look for Daily lows and also the weekly wick and candlestick low - also combine with a four day chart - this will offer a highly anticipated zone where price will observe a low parity or a lower high. Upon the subsequent formation - buying upon a daily confirmation or anticipated psychological level will be imperative. On the Daily a profit taking zone offers a low towards the breakout of the formation between the previous analysis upon the confirmation and the daily imbalance from that zone. This is also a -0.618% Fibonacci inverse extension zone. Daily Chart Update: Price has now tested successfully, now be patient and await the true wick to see where the week closes and more importantly what occurs on a Sunday - price makes an impulse move on this day, looking back at historic movements. Here is the outcome from purchasing on the confirmation from the imbalance at hand. Here is the Bitcoin market imbalances cap - monthly chart Weekly Bitcoin Market Cap Notice the equal lows which have formed the famous double bottom formation. The weekly trendline whilst steep has now seen a sell off, but now can establish a take back being the dominant coin. Daily Market Cap with BTC price Notice the daily imbalance on the market cap and the price chart equate to the same position opportunity. BTC - candle sticks ETH - purple BNB - Rose pink XRP - Orange ADA - Green Tracking the major coins as of 6th October 2021 BTC - 44.69% ETH - 18.51% BNB - 3.19% ADA - 3.11% USDT - 2.95* XRP - 2.22% * based on a fictional USD stable coin derived from Fiat. Source: coinmarketcap.com Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by LupaCapital
NZD USD - stay patient for thisHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short for a short term, due to selling power still in the picture, further increments upon imbalances will offer large opportunities to purchase. Until then, remaining neutral. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish. - read to fully understand on what timeframe I'm referring to Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Monthly This upper imbalance has been established through the top of the wick down to the close of the body on the candlestick in focus - taking place July 2017. Why here? Well this has been a previous top of the structure where price has tested by looking right to 2018 and has been rejected where no wicks have created higher highs, solely lower highs, giving the high probability of this zone being the buyers imbalance take profit zone. As with Imbalances, these are retested just like double bottom patterns and also on lower timeframes, considered consolidation patterns. The lower imbalance which aligns with the Fibonacci extension (inverse) where a change of hands will occur with as the monthly candlesticks show a correctional two months - this whilst on the previous "covid" low - upon the rejection the imbalance formation had become this zone - reasons; 1. Price correction relieves the buying pressure and discounts additional opportunities 2. The second reason is due to the the previous Fibonacci "0" on the monthly aligns to the -0.618, -0.786 zone on the inverse Fibonacci.* See here* Weekly Chart - as posted The weekly imbalance zooming into the correction based on the engulfing move from the true imbalance rejection - formed an eight week period of trading ranges which tested tested the engulfing weekly low netting the the low , allowing buyers to begin the process of establishing the trading range as well as lower time frame of a rising channel creating higher lows and higher high wicks. From here this would ensue a breakout for buyers as a well established monthly range at the pivotal level gives a 95%confidence for a buying imbalance to continue to extension targets. Where we are at current Review of the imbalance - using the daily chart 1. The higher low formations using the daily lower trend line captures three points from the lower anchor. 2. The "liquidity zone" has been tested multiple times where wicks have failed to equate to equal lows. 3. The final retracement of the channel fails to breach the "0" Fibonacci on the monthly - this pivotal rejection was the final tick off the checklist - now to scale and in buy upon the 4hour timeframe. Daily Chart Bearish Continuation Judging by looking left - the zone below "0" has been tested - price will look to breakout from the low to correct to 0.694X as a test of the 4Hour correctional channel Correlation; Keep up to date with the AUD USD correlation & NZD CHF AUD USD Monthly Chart We are currently testing the imbalance - now awaiting a further confirmation that price will continue to fall back towards the previous imbalance or consolidate between 0.70 to 0.72X Price has showed consistent lower high formations with correctional weekly channels which have allowed opportunities to hedge and keep short. Weekly chart shows consistent weekly shorting in motion towards the imbalance on the monthly - the monthly however is technically a profit taking zone where price will now consolidate and correct again at the Fibonacci zone "0". The remaining zone which is an untested imbalance - shows a strong complex completion for the full Fibo extension NZD CHF Monthly chart What have the imbalances shown? The monthly sell opportunity was where price had created a "wick" high into the monthly zone but was instantaneously rejected on the daily level. This began with a two day sell off - but upon a retested, price failed to close within the desired zone on the monthly. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
by LupaCapital
SPX500 Update - The Imbalance is forming, what to do?Note before reading; The previous analysis was private, but included in the following analysis; Here: or refer to the bottom link Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the moment, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances for additional sells. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish, but is beginning to profit take and show signs of cracking. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Firstly why has the SPX and US30 become so bullish? Simply put, as the FED Funds have been slashed - and with yields being key to movements of both institutional and retail - credit deposits provide a little return so if the trend is up and to the right, then a standard metric is sure, keep on investing regardless of the high value. This keeps the Shiller ratio and price earnings ratio are seen as "this seems fine" (to view the website to review these metrics, click the link below) - www.multpl.com To further understand this, the use of the cross-asset comparison shows a simplistic view but also a reality. The Daily chart shows us a steep wedge formation - just like the three day chart. Weekly Chart The Fibonacci from the swing low - to the top of the market, which created our new "0" as the new all time high part of the structure. The Continuation of the weekly imbalance had created a new area on the weekly, and bi-monthly timeframe - which offered a 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, indicating that the buying imbalances are still present. . Now the -0.27, -0.618 extension targets are reached. The Wedge channel had begun and created a very strong channel with an effective structure of the sellers attempting to make an imbalance. The channel has now provided areas where price can pivot to. The monthly has a future strong imbalance formed. The three month indicates where price can be used for buying activity* So long as price reacts to the 61.8 & 70.5% levels. See the Pathway where price can take us, using the probability of a bearish imbalance formation. Entry zone? Scenario - consists of a pullback of the market once the low has been made, where price always corrects. Keep in mind the -0.618 can and has the likelihood of returning to 4465*+ to 4702, assess the reactive level again upon an impending sell. Do your due diligence. Where price makes an all time high, price will revert most like back to "0" Fibonacci zero before reloading a bullish run. However, with the -0.786 Yet to be reached, price can offer this level to provide a large pivot point upon an imbalance created, with a liquidity spike capturing stop losses to most . See the second chart proposing the outlook where the full completion occurs. Current position short Short offset to hedge longs is activated adding shorts once the imbalance has formed and retested successfully SPX VS VIX Refer to the weekly negatively correlated SPX and associated Volatility index. *Note: please refer to US30 analysis or VIX for inverse relationship of correlation, not causation* Current scenario Vix Chart - please keep in mind that the VIX has correlation, causation is caused from the associated short term risk of the sentiment change within profit taking, impending policy changes, health warnings, war and other macro-factors. Current outlook; Using the Daily chart Refer to the DXY chart to follow the imbalance. The analysis link is attached. Cross-asset comparison; Looking to the DXY, US05-US02Y short term yields, look towards the critical levels here where DXY and USDJPY shows an opportunity where imbalances have established. Quantitative easing (QE) is where the increasing the money supply of the system, where the Central Bank creates new money and uses the money to make asset purchases. These asset purchases inject the new money into the system. (QE) tapering will be seen on interest rates. The impact is almost immediate - affecting the sentiment. (QE) can be used where interest is at zero %, as the central bank(s) want to introduce more stimulus. Conversely - when easing occurs, adoption of a new introduction is will send the interest rates shooting, the money to those who can offer the highest interest rates and this competition will send the interest rates skyrocketing. This directly affects the Equity market and the FX safe-haven pairs immediately. Employment In relation to employment is closely linked to that state of inflation or deflation in the economy. When there is excess money in the economy, the confidence is upbeat and CPI aligns with goods production resulting in people getting employed in the economy or in this case - returning to the original job before the pandemic. Therefore quantitative easing (QE) is positively correlated to a higher employment level* subject to NFP "True" figure of new jobs created, not in the aspect of 'Return to work'. See the article snippet below affecting the US Market. "On Labor Day, COVID-era expanded unemployment benefit programs expired. Those temporary programs included the $300 weekly bonus checks as well as coverage for those who are normally ineligible for unemployment insurance, like gig workers and the long-term unemployed. More than 11 million people were impacted by the cutoff, and roughly 7.5 million people lost their benefits entirely". - Source CNET.com/personal-finance/your/money Inflation or Deflation? inflation is likely to turn into deflation through (QE) where tapering pulls money out of the system, where less money (as compared to before) chasing the goods available, making every good less expensive. Great for consumers?! But this is no longer the case as for the wider majority - prices are now starting to take shape and cuts need to be made, and rates need to be hiked. Daily Fibonacci using the USD CAD The technical aspect here is price will need to engineer a long movement so when coming to a pivotal point on the Fibonacci extension target, price will react here, allowing discounted buy opportunities. However, price retested the Imbalance upon the weekly back to lows of 1.23 - 1.22, majority of original buyers will find new entries and the sellers would be looking to remove profits or shaken out of late positions added. - this is a point of interest or (POI), where price has consolidated heaps and has now double bottomed and now heading towards "0" Fibonacci. Chinese situation: A quick insight to how the Chinese market works The chinese property is leased for 70 years from the government who will be brought up by Real estate companies who will design and pre-sale units to investors, who will buy off plan using deposits. The cycle of funds will allow the developer to fund the next, complete or buy further leases for the next project, leaving a debt cycle Referring to China A50 USD - the FTSE China 50. Collapse of Evergrande Regulators have warned that its $305 billion of liabilities could spark broader risks to China's financial system if its debts are not stabilised. This will have ripple effects upon the US, Australian market relating to commodity imports from Australia with Copper, Iron has hit these commodities with creating imbalance sells upon the metals. China - will the CCP allow Evergrande to default? "Evergrande's woes also pressured the broader property sector, with Hong Kong-listed shares of small-sized Chinese developer Sinic Holdings (2103.HK) down 87%, wiping $1.5 billion off its market value before trading was suspended" Reuters. Whilst the Chinese real estate market has large multiple ratio where the Chinese seek the real estate to be a wealth inidcator. Despite the prices of price to income ratio as a whole in china the property price is 27.89x the avg income. Expressed as a mortgage % of income is 223% of monthly income. Source: www.numbeo.com What do you think about the current state? Is inflation now transitory - with new FED comments - "Clearly the risk of more persistent inflation has risen," Powell said in testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. ... He pledged that policymakers "will use our tools to make sure that higher inflation does not become entrenched." source: www.channelnewsasia.com www.bloomberg.com Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
OANDA:SPX500USD
by LupaCapital
2
EUR CAD - Buying power enters the marketHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the Neutral term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. *** This is released publicly - normally 2-5 days after private idea is released*** Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Weekly imbalances The Weekly Imbalance upper is drawn upon the inside candle before the price purely rejected monthly zone. Looking left - the previous weeks have established a trading range between the Monthly zone and the -0.27% Fibonacci Pivot. The selling Imbalance had created an equal top forming the weekly zone where price has failed to create higher highs. Price highs at 1.578 draw a weekly trendline on the to the anchor low to March 2021. The price has failed to break the weekly correctional channel here, therefore upon the high price has rejected to the "0" upon the Monthly Fibonacci pivot. Now with this formation, price will on the daily chart offer a highly probable engulfing breakout to the selling imbalance catching all buyers who expect the breakout. In addition to this - Using the weekly formation imbalance now formed - the next imbalance to be placed will be placed upon correctional pattern once "0" is established - looking to how price has previously recorded - the correctional hedge will offer 50-61.8% where a large consolidated structure exists - until price reacts at the these pivot zones - this is where a reactive trade is placed and sell limits. The inverse imbalance take profit zones are aligned near the monthly 0.705 at 1.421 and the -0.618 is a 1.4195. Prices will with a 95%> confidence upon the pivot reactive levels where both align . Monthly imbalance approaches The monthly imbalances are now presenting the change of hands with a probability in favour of a buying imbalance. Looking left; the reason for drawing this zone here is for two reasons; I. Using the anchor ray to plot a monthly trendline - where the low wicks have formed higher lows which have rejected liquidity zones based upon the where the monthly May 2015 candle formed with an indecision. II. Using the Fibonacci based upon the drawn zone - the correction is large here and corrects back directly to retest the imbalance and rests the wicks on the newly formed zone. II.I - Price has also developed a Net Imbalance upon the monthly zone. Using a 95% confidence based on the price pivoting upon the standard error of within =<5.0% between 61.8 and the 70.5% FR - Please refer to the white zone below, which shows the probability of the 70.5% pivot which has a statistical probability of rejecting. from a charting standpoint this doesn't matter, the point is here to purchase upon rejections using logic of a structure low, to structural highs and purchasing upon a rejected pivot. Revert to the chart below. The upper imbalance has formed based on the profit taking zones from the Fibonacci at the -0.27, -0.618 profit taking zones and has since been retested twice; The true upper limit of the imbalance is pivoting and rejecting from 1.616X at -0.618, price has now corrected to a selling imbalance and offers a "0" Fibonacci inverse pivot to retest the imbalance again which also aligns to the Fibonacci sequence 0.236 at the following levels = 1.4909 and 1.4915 and as a high probability shows imbalances to be retested . See below. Now moving to the current positional imbalance. In combination with the Weekly Fibonacci and weekly imbalances above; The Monthly anchor imbalance is formed under two criteria; I. The large scale Fibonacci Imbalance at 0.705% correctional pivot - this will be retested and rejected. II. This is Inverse Fibonacci selling imbalance profit taking zone at -0.618. Waiting and placing trades in this zone will be based on the criteria on; A position placed upon rejection A position placed between the 0.705-0.786 or on the inverse -0.618, -0.786. Daily Chart The daily chart scales in much quicker and offers - the clear opportunity for a reversal of buys, the reason being - price has shown price pivoting for two three reasons; I. The monthly Fibonacci and Imbalance zone aligns - with a tap into the monthly zone. II. The Weekly and Monthly combination of 0.705% and -0.618 matches the imbalance zones drawn. III. The Daily chart poises the pivot level and creating a consolidative bottom zone - . Price will now breakout of the Daily trendline and also - indicate a new trading range to now test the -0.27 and "0" based on the range data indicated on the chart. Correlational analysis; Both of the below analysis's provide tracking updates since back to 2020, so revert back to old analysis to see where price has come from and enjoy the reads. Note - Both trades are still active: Check out to see and track the EUR CAD - USD JPY inverse relationship GBP AUD Why is the DXY important to even non correlated pairs in this instance? - USD is still seen as a world currency - despite conflicting use deteriorating The DXY is pivotal DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. Where are now, currently using the weekly chart USD CAD Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
by LupaCapital
3
Shiba INU - We are in the zone of interest (be patient)Hello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Note: To see more information - review the linked ideas for more crypto and through the analysis links which provide explanation's for further resources. Also to add - regarding the simplified method of the Shib Burning model, a full detailed model will be available - please contact me for further information.** Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Review the full analysis below; Weekly Correction almost here; Monthly Imbalance Thus far there is not an abundance of Data provided from brokers and platforms - further imbalances will become clearer, however with data analysed - price had immediately sold off upon listing. Creating an immediate low of 0.0000569. The identifiable formation is a cup and handle which can be more visible on the weekly and four day chart. However with an introduction of further establishment of the traction from fundamental plays where new listings occur price can adopt an established consolidation. So new entrants to the market who began immediate price action on the monthly basis begin an immediate change of hands adding buyers to a selling market from the inception. This has now created a trading rang on the following four months listed whereby 0.0000471 is the established low point forming the monthly imbalance as well as the upper range of the imbalance reaching 0.00000979. The weekly Imbalance update The reason here for the half candle imbalance is provided for two reasons; 1. Being the Formation of the 50% low Fibonacci from the peak 1.00 at the introduction of Shiba Inu to the market. 2. The second reason for the 50% candle imbalance - is due to the upper 50% quartile using probability for price to retest the body of the candle for buying targets. Price did change hands from a selling market by creating three consecutive higher lows on the weekly timeframe, offering a >50% probability for buying power and long positions to be taken. Again using a fundamental backing with further adoption of users and further development of the project to become a useable token, the development through to the usage of Leash and Bone. - revert below to what is Leash & Bone. Daily Chart update Previous analysis; Daily talk points The daily ray is intact with 3 zones of a trend rejection showing the longs are in positional play The daily close out of the correction shows that the 50% and 0.000047X is a strong psychological value which rests upon a daily and weekly imbalance zone. Further to this - expecting a deep correctional pattern to the 61.8% or 70.5% whereby price has a <90% confidence of testing where price as opened price. The lower highs being created from the wicks by looking left have offered shorts to be closed out and retested with sellers unable to provide lower lows in the market. This is a sign the trend is reversing for you support and resistance traders. Please be aware that while analysing ETH, BTC, XRP, ADA - the reversion imbalances have often tested 70.5% so expect a pullback to the weekly zone as shown below. To see further studies of this - review my other analysis'. What the top formation correction would offer at a highly probable scenario The chart speaks for itself as to what occurred. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
FTX:SHIBUSDLong
by LupaCapital
2
AUD JPY - Buying, Waiting, Selling [11]Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral to Bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances up to specific areas of interest. After this, risk becomes a highly probable scenario of invalid trades and losses. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish. Do not exceed risk from buying at the tops of structures. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Weekly, the featured focus Looking left to 2008, what is shown? See below for the formation of the multiple tests of the imbalance formation and consolidation upon a retest of the imbalance - where, two tests of a marginal wick test almost nets or equal to the previous low. Whilst upon the consolidation zone built across a four month trading range, notice a clear rejection and following a four consecutive higher low formation. Monthly Below The monthly imbalances have been set with a clear pathway for the change of hands upon the lower imbalance , where price had completed the pattern in the inverse Fibonacci sequence upon the monthly . From how the formation setup, the clear opportunity to sell created the swing high and swing low on the monthly wicks. Price had developed the following; - Fibonacci Inverse extension had created a correctional pullback to the 50.0% but the importance here for this part of the trade offers a clue that price began to struggle to inch higher. The two previous bearish wick closes (before price tested the 50% zone), showed a breakout wave which allowed the range to create an engulfing pattern to falsely generate and mislead buyers. The net imbalance is highlighted above where price closed out on the candle body close, which means price has successfully closed out all buyers. The buying imbalance from the monthly zone at the swing low has been clear rejections upon the weekly chart , with the closing of the monthly wick, and the new formation of the an inside imbalance formed has indicated a clear long opportunity. From a weekly perspective - this now counts as the imbalance swing low. Back to the monthly, the pattern completed as above, now shows with this formed low, price will now look to change of hands upon the imbalance of sellers as opposed to buyers. Awaiting confirmations at the pivot point between the -0.27,-0.618 had allowed the opportunity to confirm and form. Looking at the historical patterns the chart has formed back in 2008, the previous imbalance origin, price had closed within the 50% body of the imbalance formation, showing a clear test and rejection >95% confidence of a bullish reversal. Daily Imbalance Price has made a new top above the previous structure "0" based on the supply imbalance upon the weekly. To show this, revert to the below chart which shows a double top formation and a break of the trend named This indicates that the buyers created a new fresh zone, which immediately is tested and corrects, knowing that imbalances have a confidence level of >95% to retest before correcting further to a Fibonacci pivot structure. From the top, a hedging trade 'sell opportunity was presented' and the sell wave began before a buying imbalance were to form as indicated above. Buys only were formed from this zone. The daily also presents the opportunity for a reversal as the inverse Fibonacci shows a take profit pivot upon the 82.2X zone at -0.27, but this is a crucial buying pivot upon the monthly at -0.27 whereby buyers will continue to add to the discounted price. Daily chart based on the pip range to expect for longs to swing trades on. Pathway In this scenario, looking for long opportunities from the imbalance based of the Fibonacci pivot and also the key driver - where the four day chart provides a double wick close at the same level (82.24) showing that the zone is highly probable of a liquidity zone (imbalance of buyers to sellers ratio) upon a rejection will indicate buy triggers. Cross-Asset: Review USD JPY chart and analysis; Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
by LupaCapital
5
GBP AUD - Correction completed? Longs addedHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Note: To see more information - review the linked ideas for more crypto and through the analysis links which provide explanation's for further resources. Also to add - regarding the simplified method of the Shib Burning model, a full detailed model will be available - please contact me for further information.** Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Review the full analysis below; or below Original analysis process. Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view. 1. Zone 1: - 1.72 - 1.75 we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows. From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs. A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie. 2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development. We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps. Moving to now... Monthly imbalances: Pretty simple breakdown from a monthly perspective, where GBP maxed out in March 2020 and began the sellers imbalance to reach lows of 1.742 as previously stated above. From a buying retrace imbalance - the targets are set at the 1.87 mark and 1.93 the next target. From a positional buy into 2022 if the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement permits the target and holds above, then extension of 2.0X will be looked towards. Weekly Inverse Fibonacci 1. this shows the inverse Fibonacci upon the previous imbalance whereby price has created a pivot structure on the weekly chart at 1.9158, price created a low formation to create a reversion of "0" at the base of 1.85, GBP AUD is very good at correcting to 61.8 or 70.5% using Fibonacci, personally the structure of this pair tends to ignore the 50% pivot structure as the pair is open to larger engulfing moves. . -0.618% Pivot imbalance reversal Overall this extension target was important to await the initial move, creating the High and low to allow the corrective imbalance to imbalance structure to navigate itself. Those who can form a basis understanding of the imbalance zone at will be able to place shorter term but maintain long opportunities as the overall monthly shows a buying imbalance probability in higher favour than sellers. Monthly higher highs The two highlights on this chart has been purposely left to show the 0.236 and 0.382 retracement zones where highly probable bullish moves will occur. Looking left the white eclipse which is circling the bearish candle, note how the second highlight retraces perfectly to the body of the wick, closes out and nets - this is our net imbalance whereby price has closed out in favour of the bullish manoeuvre which will now show probability over >50% in favour of the bulls. The second formation of this zone forming an imbalance is for two reasons which will be explained. Revert to the below chart to see why this 0.236 is important. I. The imbalance candle has netted off and also in combination with higher low formation upon the monthly shows the buying opportunities to now test "0" and continue the trend to the up and right. The netting is important here as the body of the bearish candle forming the imbalance at II. The formation of the weekly and monthly inverse Fibonacci and Extension Fibonacci indicate a clear pivotal reactive zone where the inverse completion pattern is now overextended, and the monthly extension pattern is showing a corrective structure for a change of hands. Daily Correctional Channel The daily correctional channel in conjunction with the weekly shows the correctional pattern of the creation and formation of the higher lows and lower highs. When plotting the trendlines upon the swing low of the formation "0" and the correctional pullback for the continued trend of selling over the short, medium term at 61.8% - 70.5%. The channel lines are formed in line with top wick placed at "1" and now the channel will bounce within these zones probability. Where the lowest low or completion has formed, the -0.618 has provided a change of hands upon a buying imbalance. Now price looks to break the trend and resume longs at a discounted price. The next step is to break the formation of the upper trend line, break and retests are a highly probable scenario where the zone will be testing the "0" and ultimately on a daily timeframe (once a high has formed) a retest of a pivot point be it -0.27 in this case). Trades can be added here with confirmations for both buys and correctional sells for hedging. AUD USD Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Inverse correction pattern completed upon the weekly, but will now look to test the monthly zone where the AUD has not retested the lower imbalance of 0.70 as yet. The weekly trendline if plotted will show a formation of lower highs but at the same time forming higher low pivots, so where price will come to an apex, we will have to await the confirmation of the next move. The DXY is pivotal DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. Where are now, currently using the weekly chart Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
by LupaCapital
4
GBP AUD - Purchase on 61.8% FibonacciHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour An update to the previous analysis - The criteria will be linked below; This can be an intra-day trade or an additional buy to already long positions. Update from the previous; Daily View Please refer to the weekly and monthly for this analysis. See the latest analysis here; Monthly Chart Snippet - Clean view Weekly; Expect wicks at imbalances and allow reactive levels to confirm where price will take us. The Pound, Australian Dollar provides a great hedges for the long positions so remember to capitalise on them to protect capital or to simply create quick profits. Here is a probable scenario leading to the end of 2021 Volume Profile Analysis Note the key volumes of interest surrounding the key area of interest - relating to 1.82XX zone with 10.734M value area down as opposed to the 10.937M value area up. This critical area along with the above 11.554 X 11.887 has seen the incremental change shift from sellers to buyers. The reality is the volume is here assist with the opportunities. Refer back to the monthly chart to see where the imbalance dots connect and align with a bullish opportunity. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
USD JPY - November Walk upon breakout Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Note adding longs are in position and further can be added upon breakout of 8hour analysis below. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish. This is a public upload after private idea is now offered, review the analysis below. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly imbalances for USD JPY These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 100.00 to be a structural level for the USD. The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 100-102. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a higher low, informing that the buyers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone. Since the previous analysis update - price has now reached the monthly zone between 109.6 - 111.8X which has is show below. Where we are now Price has consolidated upon the weekly and daily showing a corrective move occurring but the shorter term retracement is forming nicely upon the 61.8% . Weekly Chart Upon the weekly chart price has created a long opportunity which extended out of the previous weekly imbalance and has created a new zone. Price had corrected upon an engulfing breakout candle after a consolidation wave which adopted the next move. Upon the breakout of this zone, price now walks up to the monthly imbalance and once the zone is breached, price is expected to retrace to build on the order block as a reversion pivot. Using the Fibonacci sequence and combination of the price pivoted back to the -0.27 and 0.618% which both align. So from this rejection, using probability the imbalance has now formed a strong block. Using the replay bars - price had moved exactly where the price was forecast. The previous analysis from March 2021 showed this clearly. Previous analysis's Original - Updated - Note* , adapt to the longer term scenario. Four & Eight hour correctional pattern The correctional pattern shows a reliable trading pattern in terms of correcting from an impulse move. Price has offered multiple tests creating lower highs and establishing lower lows in the correctional move, but as the consolidation build up exchanges in this zone - price is continuing to fall towards the level desired at the pivot point. Looking at the Four Hour chart now - price has shown descending patterns and simple break and retest patterns a like to catch the shorter term day trading moves. From a patient trader who trades positions or swings - catching a correctional hedge from the top or awaiting buys is why we wait as the choppiness of the market here is clear liquidity for advanced traders. Two opportunities of are of interest in the four hour channel. Cross-asset comparison; Looking to the DXY, US05-US02Y short term yields, look towards the critical levels here where DXY and USDJPY shows an opportunity where imbalances have established. Firstly isolating the US05Y-US02Y chart monthly Using Imbalances and Fibonacci - two trades are identified with a selling example , and to the right a buying opportunity is clear where Yields are representing a change of hands The monthly shows upon an imbalance formation a buying opportunity for break and retests and also with the aggressive minded who react upon the pivot point - a long opportunity is present. Note how both failed upon the 0.382% on the selling imbalance correction and now the buying imbalance correction. The weekly Highlights the opportunities further enhanced views. Again both trades follow the top to bottom and now bottom to top reverse analysis. Here is the daily current scenario for the treasuries. The 0.382 held, with the weekly zone not required as the pivot zone supported the bullish imbalance from the weekly zone so an upper imbalance in the "walking up" had been created. Where we are now in terms of the cross-asset comparison: Tracking the DXY - view the analysis at the bottom to track further. the DXY and USD JPY are all showing a clear presence where the path is in correlation and now it is providing probabilities in favour for long additions as the causation is at peak markets but at the same time flows of funds are being moved from profit takers to new asset classes and as well as the USD showing it's strength as fundamentals are in play behind the scenes such as CPI jumps, consumer confidence and also GDP metrics. Quantitative easing (QE) is where the increasing the money supply of the system, where the Central Bank creates new money and uses the money to make asset purchases. These asset purchases inject the new money into the system. (QE) tapering will be seen on interest rates. The impact is almost immediate - affecting the sentiment. (QE) can be used where interest is at zero %, as the central bank(s) want to introduce more stimulus. Conversely - when easing occurs, adoption of a new introduction is will send the interest rates shooting, the money to those who can offer the highest interest rates and this competition will send the interest rates skyrocketing. This directly affects the Equity market and the FX safe-haven pairs immediately. Employment In relation to employment is closely linked to that state of inflation or deflation in the economy. When there is excess money in the economy, the confidence is upbeat and CPI aligns with goods production resulting in people getting employed in the economy or in this case - returning to the original job before the pandemic. Therefore quantitative easing (QE) is positively correlated to a higher employment level* subject to NFP "True" figure of new jobs created, not in the aspect of 'Return to work'. See the article snippet below affecting the US Market. "On Labor Day, COVID-era expanded unemployment benefit programs expired. Those temporary programs included the $300 weekly bonus checks as well as coverage for those who are normally ineligible for unemployment insurance, like gig workers and the long-term unemployed. More than 11 million people were impacted by the cutoff, and roughly 7.5 million people lost their benefits entirely". - Source CNET.com/personal-finance/your/money Inflation or Deflation? inflation is likely to turn into deflation through (QE) where tapering pulls money out of the system, where less money (as compared to before) chasing the goods available, making every good less expensive. Great for consumers?! Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
1
SPX - holding shorts, assessing for the next moveHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous analysis - below; This explains in detail what is key to fully understand the scenario Bearish Channel upon a diagonal forming? 8Hour time frame. - Now a thing of the past - price began to show signs of selling directly where I expected. Not looking trade this pattern as yet, due to the fact, the channel upon the higher time frames, looks to create a high probability of rejecting the 4400 mark and creating a further high. However, keep in mind this scenario will form an opportunity for short term traders. See below for the measured update to the 8-hour rising channel. You can look for a test, retest break sell - which is known as a The Daily chart shows us a steep wedge formation - just like the three day chart. Weekly Chart The Fibonacci from the swing low - to the top of the market, which created our new "0" as the new all time high part of the structure. The Continuation of the weekly imbalance had created a new area on the weekly, and bi-monthly timeframe - which offered a 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, indicating that the buying imbalances are still present. . Now the -0.27, -0.618 extension targets are reached. The Wedge channel had begun and created a very strong channel with an effective structure of the sellers attempting to make an imbalance. The channel has now provided areas where price can pivot to. The monthly has a future strong imbalance formed. The three month indicates where price can be used for buying activity* So long as price reacts to the 61.8 & 70.5% levels. See the Pathway where price can take us, using the probability of a bearish imbalance formation. Entry zone? Positions of where we will enter, based upon two scenarios. Starting upon a clean rejection from -0.618 Fibonacci extension. Why? Due to the highly probable imbalance which is forming upon the daily and three day charts respectively. Fell perfectly, review the four hour. Four Hour SPX VS VIX Refer to the weekly negatively correlated SPX and associated Volatility index. Vix Chart - please keep in mind that the VIX has correlation, causation is caused from the associated short term risk of the sentiment change within profit taking, impending policy changes, health warnings, war and other macro-factors. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by LupaCapital
3
US30 - Bank Holiday market open trade - recapHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Orange = Daily Grey = 1hour Purple = Profit zones Took a day trade, here is why: below is the flag pattern in which price will provide in terms of the structure in play - using the 1 hour time frame. 1 Hour Time Frame Reasoning; Bullish flag formation on the 1 hour chart. Within the structure is a correctional change of hands. This is the key are to wait for purchasing upon the low of the correctional move. This is now a technical counter move -if you as the trader sell. Structure applying looking left shows three strong bullish candles, now price will not exactly copy this, but the structure has indicated to complete the pattern, price will look to emulate this move again. 30minute time frame From the low of the correctional structure, looking left there is a consolidation zone which shows a clear view of what price is indicating to do. The low of the structure to the lower high formation, price is now gearing up as* review the eclipse where the candle sticks are showing a shorter candle body. * 5 minute chart Trade was overall long, due to market open, despite US and Canadian bank holiday. Break of the structure, retest and then confirmation engulfing candles pushed. The overall daily imbalance as yet to be tested* See below Daily chart representation Imbalance trading range zone of the current market. here is the overview of where price has potential to retest. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
ULong
by LupaCapital
USD CHF - Made a move from the Daily imbalanceThis is a late upload for public view - private trade released below for further info. Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Daily Chart The Daily is reacting to a highly pivotal level. Based on probability, the high chance of this rejecting is clear. Refer to the 8-hour chart to the rising wedge pattern formation which is key to understand where price will look to 'tail off' at the imbalance, where a change of hands will occur. The Weekly chart shows us two things to focus on here. Chart 1 - shows the clear lower lows being made since the high - April 2019. Since here, price has shown critical resistance low formations taken on 16th March 2020. Price then travelled and retested the latest imbalance - placed on a deep correctional swing at the 70.5% & 61.8% Fibonacci, but this confirms the imbalance zone. . The Failure to close above this zone - shows the next entry position as the swing high and swing low has completed the imbalance zones. Now using a sell approach risk probable scenario, the defined profit taking points are shown on the chart structure. Chart 2 - The chart here highlights a clear lower low formation where price reacts with a new imbalance - forming lower imbalances, as well as structure Fibonacci reactive zones, providing key probabilities to continue selling. The main draw here for the latest week close here though offers, the imbalance netting. Price here had closed out with buyers reaching the anticipated 'Range' high of the week, but in reality it is a Fibonacci reactive imbalance, emphasizing a further anticipated reactive sell. 4Hour chart provides clear entry positions Based upon the rejection of the daily, the imbalance has been tested, but to confirm a true sell using the rising wedge formation allows entry upon a pull-back to accumulate further orders and a break of structure re-active sell. This is denoted on the chart with the two positions in view. Following the SPX model as a basis for why USD CHF is creating further lows. DXY - Daily chart assists with further selling pressure. Note, this will be tested on a higher timeframe, with bullish structure. - Revert to the SPX analysis for further description. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
1