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USD CAD - Consolidated long pathway Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Please note: Data and charts have been removed - refer to the analysis above which shows further information relating to the analysis as a whole. Previous analysis's Monthly Imbalance Update: Weekly Imbalances Below are the imbalances for the weekly, where the previous low 1.19XX had provided the closing wick for the monthly candle close. The imbalance here is key to understand the rejection and retest of the zone is highly probable. 1. Price closed and matched the May 18th 2015 weekly close - meaning the wick is successfully retested. 2. Price has now hit a pivot point and created a monthly imbalance. Looking to the weekly however, price traded a cluster of candles which shows the 'battle' printing indecision - what does this signify? Imbalance trading from buyers to sellers, sellers to buyers - as a imbalance trader - a trade will be placed here before an aggressive addition later. Update of the weekly chart Price will look to the 0.382 Fibonacci but due to be trading right now within the 0.236/0.382 zone, the trend is still bullish and strong, so ideally around 1.265-80 has a high pivot point - purely based on Daily timeframes. Further explanation: 3. When forming a sell position rally, base rally, or in a market shift 'poising' for a bearish continued market structure, the crucial aspect here is to understand the trading range on the daily and weekly timeframe where the maximum to the pip top of the range identifies with the 1.466 to 1.469X. The significance of this here is purely the closing out of the fractal pattern completing the cycle. Fibonacci Extension Using this pathway build upon how the market cycle repeats, the application of the Fibonacci can be used here to plot next moves for entry areas in conjunction with the higher time frame to use the price path to reach the desired targets. Using the imbalance and Fibonacci tool also assists with trade management in terms of open interest fee's and furthermore exposure in short term trend shifts. Weekly - Fibonacci extension Daily Fibonacci The daily Fibonacci pathway shows a completion of the -0.618 target, where price is now consolidating on a smaller timeframe. A cup and handle pattern is forming on the daily pattern. Possible pathway - showing a volatile scenario USD CAD vs DXY What does this show here? Well the US Dollar has been been seeing a downward move towards a strong imbalance which aligns with the USD CAD zone on the weekly timeframe. With the Dollar showing weakness and the DXY showing relative weakness, while yes the Dollar is weak. This important monthly zone will set up a buy/long opportunity where price will reject and consistently create an inverted pattern for example - Head and Shoulders, bull flag. Rejection wick for a false break. The breakout has now occurred and price is now retracing from the weekly zone on USD CAD - however, the pullback will become bullish again with the pathway showing a clear upside of USD strength and DXY room to grow. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
1
GBP USD - Here comes a transition of changeHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a technical breakdown analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to selling further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous Analysis: Below are the monthly imbalances Firstly using the monthly timeframe, this has provided two key zones of interests for long positions. (i) the huge sell off from the US Dollar back in March 2020 provided a key buying imbalance, this had affected the correlation between other pairs against the USD, for example - AUD,NZD,EUR, etc. the swing low formation hit 1.1394X with a sharp whipsaw effect on the monthly timeframe. (ii) the price reverted back to the original imbalance - to the zone including the psychological 1.40mark. These established zones are prominent on the chart for two key reasons; i. price always retests imbalances ii. where the monthly chart is showing pressure against the GBP creating a lower low pattern through the chart structure historically. Further Evidence Looking to the volume profile added to where lies behind the chart candles, the volume data, which points to a selling opportunity whereby the highest peak of volume looks to the reaction point upon the entry zone surrounding 1.394XX showing the reactive level at this level which equates to 50% Fibonacci Retracement. Shows the clear jostle at a daily imbalance level. Weekly imbalances The weekly imbalances have been established within the monthly zones - where the use of the Fibonacci pattern has completed. The selling position in play due to two criteria based upon the weekly see below images to support the probability of sells as the monthly imbalance is within a strong reactive level. See below for the cross asset-comparison between the following; EUR USD - Purple GBP USD - White USD CAD - Cyan AUD USD - Dark Blue The inverse correlation, not causation here shows the negative correlation as opposed to USD CAD. This stems back to the supply and demand factor from the relevant cross-pair analysis's where imbalances exist for each. . See the reference using the weekly chart against the EUR USD See further for an isolated chart Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
3
AUD CAD - Long imbalancesHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly Imbalances Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD CAD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price reacted to the level -0.786 Fibonacci Extension, which aligns from the 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. Weekly Imbalance The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.91 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price - objectively closing out the The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios; 1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation . 2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to buy. Weekly Pathway The weekly pathway offers a solid opportunity to buy from the imbalance - whereby price has corrected and now formed bullish candles justifying a break of structure. Do not rule out a retest of this zone, before entering a second position* The probability offers a strong area of a change of hands from buyers and sellers - hence why this is a reactive zone upon the completion of the Fibonacci sequence. Fibonacci Pattern is completed on the daily Very simply taking the high to the low application of structure, price targets end up in a completion pattern which correlates to a weekly, monthly structure where price will pivot and create a "demand" or "supply" (however this case it is a buying demand). This is known as the true value of an imbalance where short sellers are now discounting the price to the reversion point for buyers to enter at a discount factor. Based on the high reversion probability - entering a buy based upon confirmation where imbalances "net off" the structure can offer applications of buying power. Refer to the Chart of USDCAD or AUD USD for references - both showing discount factors. USD CAD weekly chart AUD USD correction upon the weekly chart Volume indication Volume profile from the previous structure to the current structure Current position: View comments for updates, new additions Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
5
GBP AUD - New daily buys addedHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous Analysis's original Analysis below: How the trade is going since inception; Please note - three positions are held at any one time. Forward contracts, CFD and spot fx are used to mitigate risk and fee's. Original analysis process. Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view. 1. Zone 1: - 1.72 - 1.75 we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows. From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs. A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie. 2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development. We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps. Moving to now... Monthly imbalances: Pretty simple breakdown from a monthly perspective, where GBP maxed out in March 2020 and began the sellers imbalance to reach lows of 1.742 as previously stated above. From a buying retrace imbalance - the targets are set at the 1.87 mark and 1.93 the next target. From a positional buy into 2022 if the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement permits the target and holds above, then extension of 2.0X will be looked towards. Weekly imbalance While the GBP and Aussie is trading within a defined range - adding more positions on the range lows are pivotal here to maintain the long position. The weekly position now is clear with the daily candle to close within the Weekly, the probability to continue the rally base rally is evident. The movement since The pathway Bullish scenario, combined with the bears using a weekly timeframe is below. Using the bullish scenario firstly - where the white candles represent the bullish scenario. The weekly imbalance covers a strong are where price has now left after consolidating for weeks and broke through. Price can now extend and revert back to 1.85XX, this will offer a strong opportunity to add positions here to get to the 2.XX+ target. The bearish scenario is inclusive - where price can revert back to 1.82 which is a strong pivot point, however this scenario probability is low, as price has now left this zone. Price can create a new zone at 1.85 as a Fibonacci zone. Volume profile Here is a weekly profile which shows the bullish nature outperforming the bears. Where the profile looks to the weekly the 1.82 had the reactive level which was of importance. Since then, has seen a stream of blue. meaning the bulls are in control. Closely correlated pairs GBP NZD and EUR AUD weekly chart and monthly chart respectively using correlation and imbalances. Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. The DXY is pivotal DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. SPX vs AUD USD with an importance note of GBP AUD. The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. Pre-march Previous scenario since the lowest point - where the monthly imbalance had hit the march low. The current scenario The update has seen the weekly imbalances from the march low of 2020, where price had a strong inverse correlation between AUD USD, GBP AUD with the DXY spiking also. Now with a criteria regarding room to towards the imbalance, the monthly and weekly will offer the highly probable reactive levels. Keep on top of the pairs and specifically the S&P for a fundamental view which affects the AUD. Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence. Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
3
AUD USD - Imbalance, Channel combo - September 2021Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous analysis: link here: See the previous work The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first, using a a daily Fibonacci on the daily chart, the price levels of this very strong strength from the Australian Dollar, the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% is a strong possibility which has now been proved as price action here tapped 0.772 zone and consolidated while still making higher lows - giving confidence of confluence here rising to the monthly imbalance. The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. The plan since the original analysis, price has been bullish and driving towards the 0.80 mark as expected. beating the analysis prediction at an early scenario by 1 week. Monthly imbalances Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD USD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. Weekly time frame Imbalances The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.80 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price. The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios; 1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation . 2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to sell again. 16 Hour visual the pattern has aligned with a lower high channel formation with price now experiencing a further sell upon the green zone. Price has begun to show pressure with the candle formations testing the zone of interest. Daily Fibonacci The Daily Fibonacci provided a full pattern completion to the -0.618% extension, now price is climbing towards the "0" Fibonacci. Short sellers, will be looking at 0.73$ as place to sell, Whilst I agree, probability of confirmation allows the full heavy sells to be added. Notice how price will revert to test the zone price has come from. But creating the formation of a lower high, will be needed to be completed first. The fractal will show where price will potentially close within proximity of the imbalance to "close out" the fractal. Four Day Chart VIP SPX vs AUDUSD The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. DXY criteria: DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. DXY Now Where the DXY is at current state of play; Correlation: Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. See the GBP AUD chart here for further updates. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
8
BTC USD - currently neutral, overall longHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Please see the previous chart idea to understand where price was heading Monthly Imbalances Here are the latest imbalances for Bitcoin, where the point of interest had offered a weekly candle close from the peak high of $64,823.XX to $51,997.XX. This is a huge imbalance where price has offered a large change of hands to a critical price inefficiency. Sellers are now in control and created a low with a heavy drop where the weekly shows the rapid selling. This is due to the buying imbalance now changing to provide efficiency based up on the pivot point. Weekly Imbalances On the weekly - price has now created a mid zone where the low of $28,200 zone, price has tested this but created upon the monthly - an opportunity of this low saw multiple retests - this offers a high opportunity for price to assess the direction. Price has now created multiple indecisions and a 50% to $41,300 offering a $13000 est range. The upper zone between $64,7XX to $56,XXX has strong weekly selling. Reviewing the candlesticks shows a clear sell opportunity, but awaiting confirmations would be to see lower lows created and the retest of the candle. See below* See what happened from our previous analysis - From the $50,000, a trade hedge has been place to capture selling opportunities as price offered a opportunity to short term sell, but long term holding target - subject to pivot points. Trade is now in full profit and if stopped out, no losses will be incurred Here is the Daily, since the previous analysis - please ensure you read to understand why this was taken. Overall, yes the market is in a bullish structure using the inception and three month chart, conversely price will always return to the imbalance - when? This is the question. BTC USD Bitcoin is still the overall leader within the movement of the Cryptocurrency world, and there is a large area of movement for price to close lower and lower into the territory where price will look to reverse at two options; highlight on the monthly zone. See below for the analysis to show that imbalances repeat themselves. The weekly has applications for lower lows, with a large amount of room to the imbalance to the downside. This is a fresh structural cycle - where price has and will move to this level. BTC Line chart Price has the opportunity to falsify a move to the upside. BTC VS ETH USD As the two largest cryptos are both here and where the correlation of smaller alternative coins - the market is in "euphoria mode" but to prevent losing out. Paying attention to the critical levels highlighted below will assist. Where price breaks $2,000 on ETH "Rounded Psychological level", price will created a lower bearish channel formation - the opposite to See the capitalization of the two correlated pairs with respect to Ethereum Based Link. Key Bitcoin - BTC - Blue Ethereum - ETH - Purple Link - LNK - White See the secondary scale showing BTC price chart using the weekly to identify the zone to watch for. Volume analysis Using the Daily chart - Here shows the tight range of buyers and sellers by volume. The largest zone has been heavy between the $38,000 to $32,000 range. Current state, using volume analysis at the $50k Previous 50k mark Notice the same change of hands? Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by LupaCapital
5
ETH - Daily and weekly imbalanceHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the original idea May 25th 2021 Weekly Timeframe analysis Where do we go from here? Well price will now range within the grey box and offer an opportunity to break down to the daily imbalance, where price will look to test the 4 day imbalance of 0.382% Fibonacci. Price has a high probability to look to the testing of the weekly imbalance first and then look to short based upon the reactive weekly imbalance. The structure is still a buy and hold - but do your own due diligence based on your approach* Below are the monthly imbalances Firstly using the monthly timeframe, this has provided two key zones of interests for long positions. (i) the first zone has created a perfect early opportunity where price has firstly established a high of $143X dollars and retested the low - creating an inefficiency between the high and the low. Now from the low test - price has confirmed a strong imbalance where price can now target to create an equal high. (ii) the second zone which marks an in efficiency - is between $200 - 490, where the monthly zone had created a bearish month - by creating a pathway from the bearish candle high, notice how price closed out the previous wick on the falling pattern back in July 2018. This is the key identifier which price has re-aligned creating a fractal pattern on the weekly. where; (i) A bullish fractal is created when the low point is established, with two higher low bars/candles on each side of it. (ii) A bearish fractal occurs when there is a high point with two lower high bars/candles on each side of it. Here are the weekly imbalances Here are the three zones which are imbalances created in the past. Price is currently forming a weekly/monthly imbalance at this moment, however it is difficult to determine without a close. So longs are still activated in a buying pattern upon the long term outlook and short term outlook . The first zone established - has been created using the previously created all time high from $1100 - $1400- the previous monthly wick has been closed out by the imbalances of the buyers and can become the lowest imbalance but also the strongest to identify where price will able to drop to in a bearish probable scenario. the second zone is placed above - where price created a retracement from the high established. Using the Fibonacci tool, price aligns to a low of 50% which touches the zone perfectly. This is a perfect pivot point to complete the overextension sequence using the weekly. [refer to chart ii ] Chart ii The bears are coming! - which is normal as part of buying and selling imbalances. Using the 16 hour timeframe: Below are the sixteen hour imbalances where - price has shown a good opportunity for price to react to the following zones. Note the top zone is a Fibonacci zone - as stated in multi timeframes above. The true zone according to the imbalances are $3100-3500 for a opportunity to short again . Let price fall and react accordingly to the zones. Await the opportunity for the imbalance wick to close out - where price will be successfully filled. The Bears came The price fell to desired reaction level to test $1600-1750 level as expected this aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci structure and continue to offer discounts to buyers. Yet the 70.5% did not manage to adopt The reaction occurred as expected as the weekly zone below is the most important established imbalance. The overall big picture of Fibonacci combined with the imbalances: Note the 50% & 61.8% of the retracement zones are important here. Eight hour candles pathway for a potential smaller time forecast Cross pair analysis Tracking the closest correlated coins . Ethereum, of course being the 2nd highest coin . Key: Bitcoin cash - Orange Litecoin - Sky blue Monero - Yellow Stellar Lumens - Purple. Using a line chart graph, you can distinctly find where price has shown a similar market structure using imbalances. Notice the pattern formation on the in the two current zones. the correlated assets are providing insights, respective to the pathway desired by price between the new imbalances. All coins have , the extension pathway has created opportunities here to continue longs - where the weekly zones and monthly zones indicate the buying zones or profit targets for sellers in kind. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by LupaCapital
2
GBP USD - Sell active using probabilityHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a technical breakdown analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to selling further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Below are the monthly imbalances Firstly using the monthly timeframe, this has provided two key zones of interests for long positions. (i) the huge sell off from the US Dollar back in March 2020 provided a key buying imbalance, this had affected the correlation between other pairs against the USD, for example - AUD,NZD,EUR, etc. the swing low formation hit 1.1394X with a sharp whipsaw effect on the monthly timeframe. (ii) the price reverted back to the original imbalance - to the zone including the psychological 1.40mark. These established zones are prominent on the chart for two key reasons; i. price always retests imbalances ii. where the monthly chart is showing pressure against the GBP creating a lower low pattern through the chart structure historically. Weekly imbalances The weekly imbalances have been established within the monthly zones - where the use of the Fibonacci pattern has completed. The selling position in play due to two criteria based upon the weekly see below images to support the probability of sells as the monthly imbalance is within a strong reactive level. Using the Fibonacci based upon the market structure - price has completed the 1.618 extension target or if using the inverse method -0.618 target. Once the established high is deemed, the weekly structure is formed from the far left - showing the weekly sell candle rejecting the imbalance top closing out the previous high of the structure. The reversion back into the monthly zone offers a sell position to be placed capturing the move. Price had retested this zone again failing to extend the buying imbalance to create a second block. Instead, the lower high suggests price will continue to falter. Hence a higher sell probability. Cross-Pair analysis See below for the cross asset-comparison between the following; EUR USD - Purple GBP USD - White USD CAD - Cyan AUD USD - Dark Blue The inverse correlation, not causation here shows the negative correlation as opposed to USD CAD. This stems back to the supply and demand factor from the relevant cross-pair analysis's where imbalances exist for each. . See the reference using the weekly chart against the EUR USD Four Hour Chart See the four hour below; The pivot points are exactly on the same timeframe, just the fractal differs. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
3
XRP - New daily buying imbalanceHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the previous idea here; Monthly Imbalances The three identified zones are in place to show where the major selling, buying positions are highly critical to imbalances, based upon the structure completing the pivot pattern and or Supply and demand scenarios. Within these structures, by now - it is important to identify knowing where in these reactive zones, buying is highly probable based upon the previous structure showing a rejection and or whipsaw effect on the monthly candle sticks. Zoom in to the weekly, daily on the previous structures to learn more where price has reacted and shown elements of the imbalance shifting from low probability scenarios to high probability. Weekly Imbalances Price had correctly rejected the 70.5% structure for a buying perspective which aligns with the in between of the selling targets of -0.27 and -0.618. The reason price didn't hit this zone as yet? The probability now looks low, but never exclude this as the price has previously fallen to $0.30-0.20 zone during the weekly and monthly imbalances. Price works best by reacting to strong levels so never overlook. Bullish weekly scenario - analysed April 26th - this has been a huge success! As mentioned above, the weekly imbalance held as the deciding factor with the market structures where the largest coins Bitcoin and Ethereum dominance accelerate the coins values to the upside along with the technical approach of buyers entering the market. Four Day Imbalances Price has placed a key weekly whipsaw effect from the initial formation of the price inefficiency. II The consequence of this pair being the most liquid is testing the previous imbalance upon the motion of a risk scenario where price becomes a controlled shift of price inefficiency. The monthly reference here shows four candles of interest whereby consecutive months have resulted in large wicks where price has created the imbalance required. The four day technical approach will be to first achieve $1.90 where the previous imbalance had created a highly probable sellers reactive zone. To extend the buying positional holds, this area would need to allow price to close within the imbalance and maintain a consolidation phase, which is a fractal pattern within the reactive zone. Daily The imbalance is clear where price can and has a highly probable likelihood of buyers looking to extend buys. This zone has offered an opportunity with a clear buying imbalance - however, this reactive zone will revert in the future if price fails to clear $1.90, meaning this will be where sellers will most likely initiate profit taking. Crypto correlation chart TRX USD - orange - - 96% correlation Dash USD - light blue - - 96% Sushi USD - Green - Sushi swap - 93% ETH USD - Purple - Ethereum - 81% Using the weekly chart - the highest correlated pairs with XRP have the main interest in purple; ETH, in terms of the dominance of the market cap and volume. The weekly correlation has seen all pairs to navigate smooth buying pressure towards the imbalances which lay waiting. Where a correctional move can take place, will be back to imbalances highly likely to be filled on the weekly and monthly timeframe, refer to ETH chart and analysis for further information. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by LupaCapital
2
AUD USD - Hold shorts in AugustHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous analysis: link here: See the previous work June analysis: The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first, using a a daily Fibonacci on the daily chart, the price levels of this very strong strength from the Australian Dollar, the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% is a strong possibility which has now been proved as price action here tapped 0.772 zone and consolidated while still making higher lows - giving confidence of confluence here rising to the monthly imbalance. The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. The plan since the original analysis, price has been bullish and driving towards the 0.80 mark as expected. beating the analysis prediction at an early scenario by 1 week. Monthly imbalances Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD USD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. Weekly time frame Imbalances The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.80 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price. The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios; 1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation . 2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to sell again. Daily Fibonacci The Daily Fibonacci provided a double top or a 50% retracement rejection. For the shorter term sellers adding a position here would suffice, but recommend placing a larger position on the 61.8% as mentioned. The edge of the monthly imbalance, has key closes which come down to a daily level with fractal pivot points. Notice how price will revert to test the zone price has come from. But creating the formation of a lower high. SPX vs AUDUSD The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. DXY criteria: DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. Correlation: Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. See the GBP AUD chart here for further updates. Gold production as the Aussie is a commodity currency. Gold discounted offering See here for the imbalances on Gold . This can help adjust the situation upon the USD. Why is gold falling? Well simply put volatile situations where the return of XAU maintains no yield, the Dollar however does Yield through interest rates. Gold will look to fall to level of around $1500 before examining next where the price is to move next. However pay attention to the 1700* whereby price has a good wick where price can closed out and may have an alternate buy opportunity here. 4 hour view - potential bearish continuation? Here we have a clear imbalance filled where price has touched the low and successfully rejecting as price closed out - confirming the imbalance. Now price has continued to sell off - looking for a low of the Fibonacci '0'' to be tested. From here price will look to continue and break the zone at the low structural four hour zone. Yes it has and here is the proof, revert back to June 29th chart and hit replay. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
3
S&P 500 - Fib 1.786 Reached - where now?Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged neutral, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Overall, assessing the short idea . Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the original below: This will provide a good explanation with multiple charts and views which give enough evidence to create the possibility of the targets reaching the Fibonacci over extended pattern. Analysis for 2021 outlook. Monthly Imbalances Currently price has reached the 1.786 extension in a very quick fashion. The imbalance here on the monthly has not established itself for a sell, however a reactive level upon the monthly is the 1.786 Fibonacci Extension. Here is a potential imbalance to add longs Price has moved towards the 1.618 and 1.786, this is now a critical zone to highlight. Price has now created the interesting inefficient pricing leaving a long imbalance short effect, this will require patience while the sequence is completed for the Selling imbalance to take place. However, smaller timeframes of course opportunities will be presented. Take note of an impulsive wick and instantly rejecting, this can be the creation of the imbalance all time high. Here is the weekly imbalances which have provided the roadmap for trading. The clear path of the Fibonacci sequence - with the price offering reaction levels upon the "0" Fibonacci, again at the 1.272 (although not used on the chart) the pivot point to create a higher low between 3700-3800. Daily Imbalances The daily chart offers the overall structure from the Extension targets, providing high probabilities for bullish pricing from the price reverting to first the ("1") Fibonacci which is a double top format. From here the price had an opportunity to look for higher highs to be created. Using the the Ray extension to infinite* - the reactive levels showed imbalances where price will form a reversion point being the ray. This will dictate "bounces" and offer new additions for longs. *infinite being, using the monthly chart to show a number outside the chart axis. Daily VIX or Volatility Index overlay With a Risk-on approach, the SPX or SP500 has created multiple opportunities to continue with price rising towards the imbalance zones. VIX Chart Stand Alone This is based on the weekly chart, where the VIX has been trading in a bearish channel. Now with the inverse correlation here printing lower lows and lower highs. The SPX is printing the opposite opportunities. The monthly imbalance is still presenting a high probability of inverse moves whereby the Bullish Risk-off scenario can present itself. (Only where the price creates higher lows and engulfs from 12-14XX. Comparisons using; RINF - Inflation Expectations ETF TLT - iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF Based on the weekly as it shows further data and to distinguish patterns upon trading weeks. This is the best format to apply imbalances. Notice the inverse correlation with the Growth of the inflation ETF climbing to the double top imbalance which dates back to January 2019. The 20year bond yields are stuck in a zone of there own at this present moment distinguishing a noticeable pattern - heading towards an imbalance. for a closer display of the probability where the Vix can catch up to the 20 year yields. The VIX displays a depressed low - "Risk on approach" while witnessing the monthly imbalance to be tested. The run away of the yields however in the 20year in the past cycle rereferring to 2020 - highlights the yields to turn bullish from the imbalance in a flustered move to create a new high. The VIX is left behind but the trigger delay is then caught up and surpassed. Can this cycle repeat? Refer to the Chart below for the Aussie Dollar Vs US Dollar. Using the US Dollar strength to your advantage This explains it all in inverse correlated pair. Current scenario of the DXY vs SPX Black = DXY See the split screen of the outcome of the weekly USD CAD , where price has rejected the weekly imbalance and still inside the monthly imbalance however, but the wick on the weekly has successfully filled in the wick creating a buying imbalance upon the shift of probability. The DXY has also noted a triple bottom where the monthly shows a strong probability of the negative correlation of the SPX and EUR USD where the imbalances will offer opportunities in buying imbalances, short imbalances respectively. Here are the weekly timeframes to support: Removed Bearish Scenario, Bullish Entry scenario. FED Funds Commodities Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
TVC:SPX
by LupaCapital
5
GBP NZD - tested the 0 Fibonacci and created a new imbalanceHello Traders and Analysts, This is a quick short term update: A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Original Idea here: February 15th 2021. Previous Update to the trade - proof the analysis is working! June analysis: i]Trade education Using the Fibonacci across the 16 hour timeframe where price has created a "pullback", but what has happened here is price reached an imbalance and has fallen back towards the original imbalance as expected. Here is the breakdown of the wedges, pennants and channels. Finally executing - this is down to the individual. For me - using probability at the zone in the ellipse. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
6
SXP - June BreakdownHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged neutral, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Overall, assessing the short idea . Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the original below: This will provide a good explanation with multiple charts and views which give enough evidence to create the possibility of the targets reaching the Fibonacci over extended pattern. Analysis for 2021 outlook. Multi-time frame analysis overview: Weekly time frame of imbalance analysis: Here is the weekly imbalances taking effect of the over extended Fibonacci sequence. The ray (trendline) has been indicating strong resistance and has been tested repeatedly thus far, creating wave patterns and more recently rejected weekly candle closes which close out the low of the weekly candle. . Here is the monthly timeframe: Price has moved towards the 1.618 and 1.786, this is now a critical zone to highlight. Price has now created the interesting inefficient pricing leaving a long imbalance short effect, this will require patience while the sequence is completed for the Selling imbalance to take place. However, smaller timeframes of course opportunities will be presented. Take note of an impulsive wick and instantly rejecting, this can be the creation of the imbalance all time high. Cross asset analysis: Where are we with the Inflation ETF - RINF VS SPX? Here is the current action view of RINF vs SPX EEM vs SPX What does the emerging markets show us? Well the imbalances are within the same as the US market, but the economic recovery in terms of imbalance price driving in the EEM - shows that whilst fundamentally there is more volatility . The activeness of these markets provides a telling Fibonacci extension target is not to dissimilar along with the SPX . Beware of XAU , XAG - currently lagging behind upon a large correctional imbalance move as inflation remains low, plus the imbalance zone not ready yet for action to be taken. EEM current scenario where EEM is outperforming the SPX still, with a risk-off approach, EEM being more volatile - the discounted factor will present opportunities. Vix vs SPX Do not forget about the VIX, the volatility index is currently at low levels within a monthly imbalance and creating a good sense of fractal movements within the lower time frames for example, the daily and 16 hour timeframes. Price is showing a good probability of supressed capitulation waters, in relation to the Fibonacci sequence - SPX will nearly or complete the move to $4360 est. and then the VIX will grow an increasing sign of bullish probability based on high inefficiency. XAU USD vs DXY What is the scenario at the current play . Price has shown that the imbalance of XAU will look to find a weekly imbalance before heading further towards the longterm targets above $2000 * * this links to the XAU idea: DXY is critical here as it forms a strong outlook in terms of the cross correlation of other assets (shown above) to give an indication of taking the risk in account that the identified imbalance is an area of interest to monitor moves for SPX and XAU alike in respective of awaiting the next action. Current scenario of the DXY vs SPX Black = DXY See the split screen of the outcome of the weekly USD CAD , where price has rejected the weekly imbalance and still inside the monthly imbalance however, but the wick on the weekly has successfully filled in the wick creating a buying imbalance upon the shift of probability. The DXY has also noted a triple bottom where the monthly shows a strong probability of the negative correlation of the SPX and EUR USD where the imbalances will offer opportunities in buying imbalances, short imbalances respectively. Fed funds - tracker Removed - Volume profile Fed Funds tracker XAU XAG inflation tracker Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
TVC:SPX
by LupaCapital
1
USD CAD - Longs positions activeHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Attached to this idea I will be tracking the USD CAD and DXY. Monthly Imbalance Weekly Imbalances Below are the imbalances for the weekly, where the previous low 1.19XX had provided the closing wick for the monthly candle close. The imbalance here is key to understand the rejection and retest of the zone is highly probable. 1. Price closed and matched the May 18th 2015 weekly close - meaning the wick is successfully retested. 2. Price has now hit a pivot point and created a monthly imbalance. Looking to the weekly however, price traded a cluster of candles which shows the 'battle' printing indecision - what does this signify? Imbalance trading from buyers to sellers, sellers to buyers - as a imbalance trader - a trade will be placed here before an aggressive addition later. Further explanation: 3. When forming a sell position rally, base rally, or in a market shift 'poising' for a bearish continued market structure, the crucial aspect here is to understand the trading range on the daily and weekly timeframe where the maximum to the pip top of the range identifies with the 1.466 to 1.469X. The significance of this here is purely the closing out of the fractal pattern completing the cycle. Cross asset relationship between asset crosses Purple - XAU USD Dark Blue - US500 The reason for showing this chart here is with Canada and US both contributing to the top ten countries in output for the commodity. The Correlation of using Gold against the Standard & Poors 500 index shows the inverse of the US dollar imbalance as opposed to the SPX bullish imbalances. Gold is on a correctional imbalance as the Metal is cross correlated using a global investor asset whereas the focus on SPX is focused on the U.S markets. Monthly View USD CAD relationship with US OIL and EUR USD. Again here is another cross asset whereby Oil heavily produced by the USA and Canada a like. The EUR USD and Oil are both on bullish imbalances, however the imbalance on EUR USD has been confirmed and identified . Purple - EUR USD Dark Blue - US OIL The weekly view and monthly are key to providing inverse correlations and look for pivot , fractals on higher timeframes. In order to fully comprehend why these are crosses are key, looking into the chart shows key structural areas which on USD CAD can show a long probability. However on the Oil chart, can show an identified Selling probability. I. Weekly view Weekly view Fibonacci Extension Using this pathway build upon how the market cycle repeats, the application of the Fibonacci can be used here to plot next moves for entry areas in conjunction with the higher time frame to use the price path to reach the desired targets. Using the imbalance and Fibonacci tool also assists with trade management in terms of open interest fee's and furthermore exposure in short term trend shifts. Weekly - Fibonacci extension Daily Fibonacci The daily Fibonacci pathway shows a completion of the -0.618 target, where price is now consolidating on a smaller timeframe. A cup and handle pattern is forming on the daily pattern. USD CAD vs DXY What does this show here? Well the US Dollar has been been seeing a downward move towards a strong imbalance which aligns with the USD CAD zone on the weekly timeframe. With the Dollar showing weakness and the DXY showing relative weakness, while yes the Dollar is weak. This important monthly zone will set up a buy/long opportunity where price will reject and consistently create an inverted pattern for example - Head and Shoulders, bull flag. Rejection wick for a false break. The Loonie has been trading in an exaggerated one figure rut for more than a month from 1.2035 to 1.2160 Most recently an engulfing ending Fridays trading session saw a bullish move to the upside. With Rising oil prices, which supports the Canadian economy and dollar, are poised against the strength of the US expansion and inflation, keeping the Canadian Dollar poised for strength. The chart below shows that a cross-asset comparison compares USD/CAD - Grey USOIL - Orange AUDUSD - Pink Dollar Index - Blue These are based on the weekly timeframe and without adding imbalances - the price lines both have noticeable - negative correlation and align to the imbalances upon the monthly. (charted in light blue). Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
1
EUR CHF - Long opportunitiesHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly imbalances The 2015 low sell off closed and reverted from the low to create a new imbalance for longs to occur. Upon the rejection - price was a clear buy upon rejection, however here the most important zone was return to retest 1.02 - 1.04 zone. From here using the daily and awaiting confirmations - buys were to be added. The reason, price pivot point and double retest and creating higher lows. Weekly trendline & imbalance The weekly trendline has been placed, price whilst climbing up to the imbalance - where price will in the long term will need to revert to. Using the weekly while awaiting the low to create a high. Use the Fibonacci for a safer opportunity to add a position at the 50 - 61.8% Daily imbalance So as is evident here the weekly and monthly imbalances - the daily has created an opportunity for longs as price has created a correctional channel, creating opportunities for shorts (to cover longs). Price created the imbalance sell and then the bull flag has allowed price to discount itself back to an imbalance zone at a deep zone - where the Fibonacci is applied. Here, also to note - the inefficient pricing is testing the trendline, but be aware price can retest the daily imbalance at 1.07XX-1.08XX Be patient and trade the probability. Fibonacci structure Here is the completion of the bearish positional move - which is also the matching zone of the trendline at -0.618 - which is a target zone for shorts to close out - now this is a high probability for the inefficient pricing to now look for a balancing act, and create a buying imbalance from this zone, Bull flag opportunity - combined with imbalances Simply explained with what is happening right now. Finally executing - this is down to the individual. For me - using probability at the zone in the ellipse. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
GBP NZD - June analysis updateHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Contents Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Original Idea here: February 15th 2021. Previous Update to the trade - proof the analysis is working! Analysis Monthly imbalances Price has rejected multiple times the zone with 1.81 being the lowest wick on a monthly close. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance What is evident here? The imbalance perfectly aligns here as price touches the price close on the monthly top reaching 2.175XX March 2020 in line with the January 2016 - where the last supply imbalance was prominent. The candles leading up to the imbalance in January, February signify great bullish continuation closes showing a clear pathway to creating a monthly double top or at least a lower high. [The matching equal high here can be seen on the three month chart* * Price had to reverse from here, this is how the imbalance fill works where price perfectly reacts of a pivot point or a pricing inefficiency. Weekly imbalances Price has rejected the monthly zone as well as on a weekly, the weekly close is showing bullish signs as the candle closes are creating higher lows. Further to this, the price analysis of the candle sticks show a strong engulfing whipsaw of a bearish week followed by a bullish week immediately after. This shows that price action on a lower time frame will indicate that the profit taking for the sellers are transitioning the imbalance of sellers to buyers. The gap from this zone where the imbalance has arisen, from a technical stand point gives the probability of the fresh zone on the monthly is the open target. Cross Pair Analysis: Understanding the cross pairs and correlation between commodity pairs The first chart shows the weekly and monthly using the commodity pairs: AUD JPY & CAD JPY in conjunction with NZD JPY. The pattern of the correlation is clear - these pairs are heading towards imbalances. Absolute correlation pairs GBP NZD comparing against the top correlators - GBP AUD and EUR NZD on a weekly time frame against the monthly timeframe. The idea here is provide insight as to how the pairs follow in correlation - and provide three options to trade across pairs. Despite the GBP NZD & AUD having relatively close imbalances - the great opportunity here is to provide strong and high probability areas to set a position and trade off it. Week imbalances using the over lay of GBP NZD imbalances - EUR NZD does not correlate as strong, however looking at the pair the weekly imbalance and monthly imbalances align with key signs of liquidity wicks which engineer the low and reject the zone. Trade education Using the Fibonacci across the 16 hour timeframe where price has created a "pullback", but what has happened here is price reached an imbalance and has fallen back towards the original imbalance as expected. The correctional move has taken place here and found it's imbalance zone where price will reject. Here is why I entered a second trade Here is the breakdown of the wedges, pennants and channels. Enjoy the trade - targets are based on the Fibonacci extension. The 61.8% confirmed a breakthrough was my entry. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
BTC - 61.8% structure now in actionHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast quick analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Chart pattern to watch for: - short term Below is the possibility of a Bearish pennant. Bullish Pattern to spot: Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view. 1. Zone 1: The daily zone is where price will be looking at a test of the order block based on how the mark flows between imbalances to create the range. The current week has seen a sharp outflow of movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of $42,000. This redistribution of wealth is the transfer from impatient to patient buyers, liquidity to show bears opportunities to 'shake' Bitcoin wallets out to create a new engineered low. 2. Exactly the same development but making further lows to around $37,000 - $39,000. This zone will be a 'full retrace' upon a daily Fibonacci standpoint, however this is where the imbalance lies. 3. The true imbalance remains at $28,000 . - see BTC VS yields for this information. Monthly Imbalances Below are the monthly imbalances, where price has now created a monthly imbalance using the close of the high. Price has created a nice area which has broken down to the weekly imbalance zone . The main structure here is dependant of the pivot points upon the price closing in the zone where BTC can retest the monthly highs, creating a lower high. The probability of these occur where price breaks using the Fibonacci rules as a second strategy. Here is the probable paths where price can show Fibonacci rules are still in formation on the weekly chart: The structure is in a corrective phase here where the imbalance created will now offer an opportunity for buyers to look at the fractal zones where imbalance wicks align nicely at 61.8%. If looking to buy, confirm the buy is active with confirmation. Or simply wait the next liquidity spike to the next imbalance. align the timeframes together and the imbalances will become clearer. Daily chart Here is the current price chart for the daily price chart with the Fibonacci applied. The current price is testing the 61.8% retracement, the price also seems to find it's reversion (pivot point) at the 70.5% retracement* Caveat: The price will not always use this is a reversion point, price will use probability before falling to the monthly imbalance. 16 hour chart Here is the 16hour imbalances which breakdown the imbalances to show in a smaller trading session - this timeframe removes further noise and solidifies the inefficient imbalance of the supply and demand strategy. The eight hour Fibonacci is complete Now what is happening? This aligns with the bigger picture using the weekly and monthly. BTC VS VIX The Volatility index is always an interesting measure, where the Vix Screenshot below to show the monthly relationship of the price closing. The volume profile added to the Vix shows here where; orange = value area up Blue = value area down *showing the buyers, sellers upon the imbalance of the newly all time high. As described on the chart - the key zone here is the correction which aligns on the 2 week imbalance rectangle where price can revert to to provide a key positional move upwards to continue the buyers imbalance. US Treasury volatility - not to be ignored by Crypto: Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence. Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the indexes also which will impact the imbalances of Crypto currencies. BTC vs ETH: Notice the imbalance pattern? Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by LupaCapital
2
XAU USD - the pathwaysHello traders and analysts A Note before reading - this is a technical qualitative analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Volume is used on occasion as well as quantitative features - which will be explained. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. See the SPX or US500 analysis here: Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly Imbalances Below are the imbalances which are clearly outlined; (i) the first imbalance, shows the 2020 low whereby price has retested the zone between 1112 - 1180, the previous imbalance identified is comprised of the Spinning top - while on a monthly body, the evidence is clear here where price will experience a buyer, sellers imbalance - giving the high probability of price closing out sells and creating a high buying imbalance upon the low. (ii) the second imbalance is between 1447 - 1554 (despite this being a huge range - the reason for this zone is due to the price creating a high of 1554, which price has established - imbalances will be retested and filled successfully . Notice the monthly doji - before the bullish engulfing candle** (see screenshot two) to understand where the imbalance has filled the low closing of the high. Price reacted and created the buying imbalance - converting the sellers to close out or buyers hedging positions. ** imbalance filling example (iii) Price then established a high of 2077.XX - 1966 imbalance upon the monthly. This is now the Fibonacci monthly top - or the weekly target using Fibonacci on the extension target for further evidence of the high reaching the target top. From here though, the imbalance converted the high - to the Fibonacci 38.2*, whilst this is only a confirmation, the real reason for this is price will close out the imbalance at 1673 - which needed filling. This created a pivot point within the market structure to establish further longs. Now adding the weekly imbalances Here are the highlighted zones which are where the imbalances have occurred. Notice how these zones align within the monthly imbalances. These are clearly defined as outlined by the second chart. . Whereby price has touched the imbalance low and closed out the wick. This has proved the monthly level imbalances and determines the pivot structure. Four day, 16 hour is privatised Daily Imbalances The Daily levels are shown and on the imbalance wick - before price has created an engulfing candle. The price shows the target of the range at 198X.XX - this will form a range top before the four day, weekly imbalance and daily imbalance above. Price will look to leave a wick here for a high towards 1990 where the previous wick high was. This will be needed where the imbalance. Where gold is heading using trendlines and patterns. The idea of what price is looking to achieve - using the eight hour chart as a drawing tool. Cross-asset comparison Here is the XAU XAG sector index for a cross comparison showing the levels of commodities - showing the rise in precious metals are back with the imbalances. Weekly overlay of XAU sector index vs XAU XAU XAG Here is the chart of Gold and Silver correlation - where price is floating around the 61.8%* Fibonacci retracement. The reason for using this chart is to fully understand the relationship of the undervalue of XAU XAG against the market sentiment. Inflation ETF Vs XAUXAG Here is the monthly chart with the overlay of the Pro Shares Trust Inflation Expectation. Below is the weekly chart - where 0% interest rates have been applied, since this moment repeating again since 1930's - this is a critical pattern piece of the market to understand. Attached is the Fred Federal Reserve balance sheet The monthly chart represents the S&P500, US02Y and the FRED/WALCL all together. Notice the cross patterns between 2008/09 and of course with the most recent Pandemic. A further detailed version of this is . GBP JPY is privatised Key SPX = Orange US02Y = Light blue WALCL = Dark Blue The returns of the US02Y correlation is negative against the SPX & FRED. Although the SPX is completing the Fibonacci extension - this is a cause for concern. This is a huge macro-economic shift and is now becoming concerning. For a further understanding, of QE and inflation measures - please do your research on said topics. To put things into perspective - the Repo market has now created an over supply of cash in the market which has essentially no where to go.. where, the increase of USD at 0% has been part of the asset purchase and drawdowns on the balance sheet causing a Reverse Repo situation. This has not been helped in the slightest by states, and other financial measures providing stimulus onto the end user . Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by LupaCapital
3
XLM USD - Forecast on track Hello Traders and analysts. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the previous analysis here: XLM USD Monthly Imbalances With a small amount of data here, where price creates a new all time high, this is considered a daily, weekly or monthly imbalance so long as price retraces back to a zone e.g. a daily imbalance candle and fills a wick upon an aligning Fibonacci level. These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of $0.60, this was also a structural level of -0.618 Fibonacci extension . The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around $0.60-0.41 established. While this zone is a large trading gap - the best imbalances for price levels to work from here is on the weekly, daily. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a all time high*, whereby $0.43 was structural point where price was, informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the daily and weekly imbalance to create correctional move. Previous: s3.tradingview.com Price has now established the monthly imbalance where price will be able to correct and continue to create new all time highs. Please note - the Monthly imbalance is wide - with respect to $0.20 cents. The reason for this is due to the scope of the imbalance on hand being established* no month thus far has provided a fractal structure to indicate the probability taking over. Weekly imbalances The imbalances are clear here, with two in efficiencies identified. 1. - The upper newly created all time high has provided a correctional move where the 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement is in play. 2. - The imbalance wick between $0.38 - 0.30 needed filling as part of a engineer low for the imbalance to take effect for further longs. This was my previous analysis: March 14th. s3.tradingview.com Previous daily imbalances: The Daily imbalances are showing a rally base rally correctional wave formation for those who look at wave patterns. However the path is a clear indicator of Imbalance, fresh high, imbalance fill, create a new imbalance and create a new fresh wick imbalance for price to fill and hold the market structure. Currently price is looking to create lower lows while being squeezed out to create a low discounted imbalance change over between the sellers and buyers. Here price will be monitored for additional positions. tradingview.com Current Daily imbalances: This is how the current formation is looking using the flag parallel channel formation. While this is not a normal tool an imbalance trader would use it is a definitely insightful tool to highlight ranges which provide opportunities to add positions using the daily timeframe - where looking to buy and sell upon a rising range. Eight hour imbalances Here are the two imbalances price is currently ranging between. Note price is on the upward path to retest the all time high. Cross asset comparison using the 2 week time frame Each asset here has produced the same formation but with a relative price swing - which is respective to the asset in question. Swings may be visible to "volatility" however a smaller price from $1 to 0.50 is 50% far more dramatic than $200 to $170. The boxed zone is an interesting pathway following ETH. As ETH provides a strong weekly and month imbalance - this will determine great pivot points of reference which align to the imbalance. Taking a look at Ethereum and Stellar - understand the correlation pattern the two coins have are very closely correlated. Keep an eye on how the more expensive asset moves affecting Stellar. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:XLMUSDLong
by LupaCapital
2
BTC using probabilityHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast quick analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. See previous analysis here : Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view. 1. Zone 1: The daily zone is where price will be looking at a test of the order block based on how the mark flows between imbalances to create the range. The current week has seen a sharp outflow of movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of $42,000. This redistribution of wealth is the transfer from impatient to patient buyers, liquidity to show bears opportunities to 'shake' Bitcoin wallets out to create a new engineered low. 2. Exactly the same development but making further lows to around $37,000 - $39,000. This zone will be a 'full retrace' upon a daily Fibonacci standpoint, however this is where the imbalance lies. 3. The true imbalance remains at $28,000 . - see BTC VS yields for this information. Monthly Imbalances Below are the monthly imbalances, where price has now created a monthly imbalance using the close of the high. Price has created a nice area which has broken down to the weekly imbalance zone . The main structure here is dependant of the pivot points upon the price closing in the zone where BTC can retest the monthly highs, creating a lower high. The probability of these occur where price breaks using the Fibonacci rules as a second strategy. Here is the probable paths where price can show Fibonacci rules are still in formation on the weekly chart: The structure is in a corrective phase here where the imbalance created will now offer an opportunity for buyers to look at the fractal zones where imbalance wicks align nicely at 61.8%. If looking to buy, confirm the buy is active with confirmation. 16 hour chart Here is the 16hour imbalances which breakdown the imbalances to show in a smaller trading session - this timeframe removes further noise and solidifies the inefficient imbalance of the supply and demand strategy. The 16hour here shows the 40k is a great area where the price has a high probability of becoming a rejection fractal. This zone here is a completion of a higher time frame fractal. Combined with the Daily imbalance Using the Fibonacci tool - the daily level shows us the 50% and the 61.8% retracement zones. Looking at the 16 hour, the zones align. The corrective process here shows a good opportunity for buying opportunities to the patient. BTC VS VIX The Volatility index is always an interesting measure, where the Vix Screenshot below to show the monthly relationship of the price closing. The volume profile added to the Vix shows here where; orange = value area up Blue = value area down *showing the buyers, sellers upon the imbalance of the newly all time high. As described on the chart - the key zone here is the correction which aligns on the 2 week imbalance rectangle where price can revert to to provide a key positional move upwards to continue the buyers imbalance. US Treasury volatility - not to be ignored by Crypto: Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence. Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the indexes also which will impact the imbalances of Crypto currencies. BTC vs ETH: Notice the imbalance pattern? Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by LupaCapital
6
GBP JPY - imbalance awaitsHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Once price hits the imbalance an update will be provided and the re-analysed zone will be subject to short. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Previous analysis updates are below: 155 Price target Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly imbalances: Price has rejected the previous all time low of GBP JPY. It is important to note here as to why this area on the low is so significant. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The monthly wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance - with clear evidence of a engineered liquidity wick rejection. Weekly Imbalances The reason for buying in at this level is simply due to the imbalance being filled on the weekly at 140.5-70, this zone was the top of a trading range where patience is required here for a Fibonacci retracement back to 137 zone. Upon a rejection to 136.80+ a buy would be prominent. Keeping the outlook in perspective is the key to buying on a higher timeframe, more aligns and there is less noise to worry about regarding reversals, trading ranges. The reason behind the entry point here at 137.80 The monthly and weekly imbalances above the buy zone at 136.69 are geared for longs as the imbalance is yet again filled. Daily Imbalances: Now that 152 target has been reached - this is now in a weekly and daily imbalance where price will look to use the previous daily and weekly former imbalance to create a range for one final push into the next zone . From here price will be monitored watching the all important weekly imbalance at the top of the structural move. The daily imbalances in have been patient levels to signify buys. - Previous analysis has provided clear indicators as to why these are buying opportunities. Price will fluctuate back to a low of 148, to regain liquidity measures and false breakout the sellers will be trapped with further imbalance buy power. Profit taking As mentioned in the previous analysis 150, 152, 154 are even numbers to take partial profits. From this trade, profits have been taken leaving a small ending balance to follow through with smaller imbalances maintaining the open interest swaps. Cross correlations between GBP USD, XAU USD The price chart here signifies what GBP USD is doing, where the dollar is correcting against the pound from an imbalance level at 1. 40 - price is now in a correctional phase, awaiting a buy move, therefore GBP JPY with a strong inverse, is also experiencing the same inverse phase. The 16 hour chart above shows some key levels marked by the Yellow line markings show the correlation between the asset prices using GBP as a positive and XAU as a negative. The correlation will vary between time frames, but in terms of the way the range works, this ignores noisy data on the lower time frames and highlights different imbalances which match up using the four day and weekly crossing of imbalances. Current cross analysis Here is the current analysis using the four day view and the monthly chart to see the rise of the Pound Sterling against the cross pairs as well as the correctional move for Gold. Here is the multi-time frame analysis showing the eight hour imbalance currently being filled. The probability for this to continue moving toward the range top is clearly on the side of the move completion. Fibonacci pathway in which price is following smoothly since the low with a great test of the 50% retracement as expected. There pivot points are clear with the imbalances and align in the historical data where 'whipsaw' effects occur, this is showing a clear indication of an imbalance and fractal pattern creating the fresh level. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Long
by LupaCapital
2
NZD JPY Imbalance awaits. Hello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to the long term structure offering a reactional level upon the imbalance. Price is still creating higher highs and completing the sequence to create a "fresh level" but in actual fact this is an imbalance. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Previous update - Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour NZD JPY Monthly imbalances Using the monthly time frame, it is clear to identify the buying imbalance and selling imbalance here. At this moment in time, there is no opportunity to sell as price has not yet reacted to the zones in place. The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 81.30- 84 JPY established. While this zone is a large trading gap - the best imbalances for price levels to work from here is on the weekly, daily. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in March 2020 created an imbalance low, whereby the yen was showing strength from a fundamental perspective of the safe haven. The low of 59.3 NZD to JPY was a structural low point where price indicated two key criteria; 1. Informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the daily and weekly imbalance to create correctional move. 2. The key zone here is price hitting a monthly imbalance block at the structural low using the three month chart* what is evident here? The imbalance perfectly aligns here as price touches the price close on the three month as assigned on the far left with the green arrow. The second fill which occurred January 2020, touched the same zone between 59.30-59.50 NZD JPY. Price had to reverse from here, this is how the imbalance fill works where price perfectly reacts of a pivot point. Three month chart* Monthly chart Weekly imbalance plan From a weekly perspective, there has been a great opportunity to buy in for the positional buyers and within the 68.00 - 69.80 zone. There reason for this zones important is due to two reasons; 1. Price aligns with the weekly low referring to June 2016 imbalance sell rejection. 2. When forming a rally, base rally, or in a market shift 'poising' for a bullish continued market structure, the crucial aspect here is to understand the trading range on the daily and weekly timeframe where the maximum to the pip top of the range identifies with the 71.96-72.00. The significance of this here is purely the closing out of the fractal pattern completing the cycle . Screenshot two - Fractal completion. This shows the clear pattern that price will be 'broken' to create a new high here. I. The low has been confirmed by the previous weekly touch of the candle wick high. - this nets off. II. The body low has been netted by the wick high. Fibonacci pathway Using the daily timeframe, the application of the Fibonacci can be used here to plot next moves for entry areas in conjunction with the higher time frame to use the price path to reach the desired targets. Using the imbalance and Fibonacci tool also assists with trade management in terms of open interest fee's and furthermore exposure in short term trend shifts. The outcome from the Fibonacci extension tool. This has been used for demonstration purposes for the analysis, however the technique in place here is how the top down analysis is predicted and executed. Daily imbalance levels The levels are clearly identified, using the main criteria from the monthly and weekly imbalances. The levels on the daily take time to develop. Plot and assess upon price volatility and also the probability of the trade shifting direction , or in some cases, long term - dependant of the imbalance cycle* Understanding the cross pairs and correlation between commodity pairs The first chart shows the weekly and monthly using the commodity pairs: AUD JPY & CAD JPY in conjunction with NZD JPY. The pattern of the correlation is clear - these pairs are heading towards imbalances. The second chart provides key data for the weekly and monthly using the major pair currencies* GBP JPY is considered a minor pair - but with the correlation of XAU and commodity pairs the GBP also is a major pair so in this case with considered, it is analysed for the performance. Using the cross asset of NZD JPY vs XAU USD, while cross referencing VIX and US 10 year yields. The basis behind this, is to use the risk based approach of the NZD being a commodity currency where a produce of Gold and the correlation between the strength of the NZD and XAU in a 'risk on' approach. Particularly for the NZD using the imbalances as reference points. The use of variable instruments of the VIX and 10 year US yields are due to the 'risk off' scenario plan. Note; I VIX and 10 year - spikes in session Fundamental decisions do not necessarily result in a 'jolt' in the price on every occasion. This opens the door to a strong positional buying opportunity and openness to credit risk take on. II. The capitulation waters here on the economic cycle is ever present where buyers and sellers in the short term are profit taking and engineering liquidity from the transfer from the impatient to patient traders. Volume profile: Here is an important level at the monthly and weekly imbalance. Notice the sell volume taking over . Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Short
by LupaCapital
2
US OIL - Weekly imbalance still activeHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. A bullish scenario is needed, as well as a bearish , this is a game of patience. For further charts - refer to the previous analysis with cross asset screenshots Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly Imbalances Price has currently filled a monthly imbalance, with a new fresh imbalance zone awaiting price action to occur. The probabilities are strong here for price to enter into this zone, purely based on the candle wick which has been confirmed from February 2021. The wick on the lower time frames has provided evidence of this reaching a fractal point at $59.20 per barrel. . Price had created an engineered low, for the shakeout of the sellers who are looking for sells of the fresh "high". Note, on the daily, the trend line is well respected with the three soldier candle pattern 'identified as a sell off", however, this is a perfect opportunity to add a long. The monthly imbalance - is still showing the respective low as explained above. The price of oil has continued to show it's strength reaching the next liquidity wick fill at $66.34-54. Now, the next important imbalance zone is yet to be breached and tested. Price can now create a fresh test of the monthly chart, applying as to what the structure on the monthly is showing is, the price can have a high probability of moving back to $60.00 - $62 zone to create a solid rally base rally formation setup. s3.tradingview.com Weekly Imbalances applied: Bearish Weekly Scenario: Where price is now entering a fresh imbalance - this is a great opportunity to close out long positions which have been held in a shorter run up or simply close out profits to de-risk and transfer the risk by offsetting shorts. Why? - Simply put, fresh zone is a clear opportunity for the imbalance to occur. The imbalance will be closed out and the market structure will offer a new opportunity. Price can dramatically collapse again with a strong supply, however where price is still showing "long". Oil can be sold off to weekly imbalances or in a worst case scenario to the below Blue, monthly imbalance. Weekly Imbalances - still active zones. The Weekly imbalance provides a good indicator her where price can create a weekly supply or sellers imbalance as the zone is a fresh touch. The probability of price retracing from the newly created high, is a strong possibility. However, as there is a zone higher, Oil can still use this imbalance as a base, to create strong price action floating within a range of $67-60 per Barrel. Look into the smaller time frames for pivot points assessing the risk of entering a trade. s3.tradingview.com Eight hour Fibonacci, imbalance Below are the eight hour imbalances, where a great structure has taken place to provide an opportunity for the base to built upon. The imbalance here will attract the short sellers and scalpers and hedged sellers to cover longs. However the 50% retrace zone aligns perfectly to a strong indicator of where Fibonacci lines mock up a solid alert to monitor the minor inefficiency taking place here. however be aware for the weekly zone below this is only a short term hedge for buys to capture both sides of the trade. Price will have a high probability to fall towards $58-59 per barrel. Daily imbalance - for a simplified view Again the imbalance of the monthly aligns with the daily low, so take into account here a inflow opportunity for the building up of a buying imbalance at around $59-60. XX then initiate a buy order. Understanding the context behind Oil with the "disastrous" negative price of the Oil futures crash. 2020-2021. We have seen a nice impulse into the channel and a rejection upon reaching the trendline at $53.00 Good question, based on the fact - from a technical standpoint - the sell off back in February, March 2020 - reversed on a fractal point within the market structure to the crisis of Oil supply being heavy weighted in comparison to the demand . The spike to zero was the abundance of supply which effectively the storage supply became over saturated and "worthless", the May contracts were not accepted for physical delivery and the paying for the delivery took place to prevent further storage. This imbalance was created in which created the impulse. Price re-established itself with $30-36 zone for a further imbalance where price will now look to as a strong demand for price engineering if needed. See the charts here - Understanding the Fundamentals behind the Supply, Demand & Future Supply through inflation of cause and effect. Oil prices and levels of inflation are often seen as being connected in a cause-and-effect relationship. Simply put with oil current at $66.00 per barrel, as oil prices move up, inflation—which is the measure of general price trends throughout the economy—follows in the same direction resulting in a higher overall price. Keep in mind, as the price of oil falls, inflationary pressures start to ease. Producer Price Index This is a measurement of the rate of change in prices of said commodity , where the change in prices of the products sold is measured by the producer. The exclusion of Tax, trade margins and transport cost which are all variables a buyer of a physical will have to burden. The PPI is a average movement of price, which are subsequently tracked by the economic indicators dealing with the price fluctuations end users have to pay at the end of the supply line. Below is the inflation ETF vs Oil - providing some crucial cause and effect over the future supply of Oil and where price is overall moving towards, again use inefficiency in the market. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
TVC:USOILLong
by LupaCapital
18