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DAX30 - Short into 2021Let's see what the go is. This is a long term view based upon one very important principle. Why are we selling? Price is expensive and volatile - during the election process in the US, the worlds relationships are affected The election is coming closer <45 days. The S&P500 and NAS100 are not shown here but use reference for our previous ideas to show where price has reached our over exposed markers. The stocks have recovered well from a V - shaped recovery, but the Gap fill has not occurred. Covid 19 - second wave has concerned EU governements - with further pumping of money to "control" the costs of job losses and curb closures. We have established a great supply or essentially a strongly overvalued market again in quick succession, however price will be giving some good areas to sell. Particularly a break of 13,000 down to 10,000 and beyond for an extension. Pay close attention to the markets like CAC, IBEX FTSE MIB and FTSE UK - all are showing signs of weakness and poor price action. The monthly shows us a perfect area which we are currently in to go short. Keep your average price consistent when closing out profits or losses - this is important in trade management. We are not selling at random times, there is a reason for this at specific levels. Because the market shows these levels. The trade we will be taking is the least path of resistance. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
XETR:DAXShort
by LupaCapital
5
Apple short to these levelsApple has hit the peak and now sliding down to the following zones. The eyes - are sell targets The eyes - are potential buy zones. Why are we selling? The reason is - over exposed buyers, tech stocks need to retrace. Price is expensive and volatile - during the election and huge interest in the previous months up to September. The election is coming closer <45 days. The S&P500 and NAS100 are not shown here but use reference for our previous ideas to show where price has reached our over exposed markers. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by LupaCapital
Amazon - Time to sell back to the imbalanceWe have used the S&P500 for reference as well as Nasdaq100 We have a trendline break on the ray and now an opportunity to sell to 2021 for a nice target of 2400 but with a range from 2280 - 2450. Enjoy the trade. To further explain everything; check our links which will provide further details in our setups. Note: after the stock split which was a great tactical move, the impulse of trading volume has created a great engulfing opportunity for longs. Now this trade out look will be a few months so if you are here for short day trading, you will have to look else where however if you have the know how - the setup can work on smaller timeframes. We continue to thank our supporters and appreciate all likes to let us know you are looking at our work and agree. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by LupaCapital
1
XAG USD - sell to 2021This falls inline with Equities, where price will look on indexes like S&P500, Nas100, ASX200, DAX30, FTSE100 - As these fall - commodities like XAG which are a consumer product for manufacturing - the price will suffer with equity sell offs. Taking the Fibonacci from the low to the high of the move; We have our targets in play. We will close out some long positions which have been rewarding but another opportunity is here to hedge and be rewarded on the sells. To see our breakdowns of the Indexes - see the links as well as the long term Silver buy opportunities. This trade a cycled seasonality trade - note the volatility here from the technical aspects around on the chart. Use the monthly and weekly for a clearer picture. Many thanks for those who follow us and continue your support through likes, comments and follows. We have now surpassed our 100 follower milestone. We will continue to share our work. Appreciate any private messages or comments in which provide substance of views agreeing or opposing. Remember to manage your trade. This is key to success. Thanks, Team Lupa
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDShort
by LupaCapital
Nasdaq sell continuation - Long term Fibonacci retraceHello traders and analysts, We are looking at the over extension completed - in which we have previously analysed in private and have been short already from the 1.786 extension. What is Nasdaq showing us right now? A discount price offering in the market - 2 x weekly bearish candles. A break of a steep ray line from March to August highs. Take your Fibonacci from the March low to August high. Our levels for Targets correlate with 50% to 61.8% - as good healthy targets. See the SPX link for further information regarding the full break down on the technical side - the application is present here. What does the COT data tell us? AVG Long Short Total L% S% Net Avg_13 14,986 10,525 25,510 59% 41% 4,461 Avg_20 14,197 10,762 24,958 57% 43% 3,435 Avg_50 14,525 10,440 24,965 58% 42% 4,085 In the last few weeks - the shift of longs has now switched from Long to short - with 44% long, 56% short in sentiment. Keep a look out for volatility now with sell offs in US equities or profit taking and expect retail decisions to be following the decision of the fellow sheep. If you are currently short - always keep in mind your risk management. We will release our view to the public viewing of the Russell2000, US30 and UK FTSE100. To follow us, click the follow button. Please feel free to share your view - we enjoy comments with some depth. To those of you who follow - many thanks for the continued support, we passed our 100 Follower milestone. Take it easy out there, Team Lupa
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by LupaCapital
1
SPX500 update The sell off, or correction has begun. Now we are at an interest area now where for the second weekly candle close is bearish. Now to some this is a healthy correction or to others the start of a bearish crash prone to a host of reason which we have explained before. We are continuing to hold short positions - again the long term here is to hold to the low of March and beyond [if price shows us a structure to add positions along the way down. The window of opportunity to sell is between August - November - think of the fundamentals attached - that and a newly tested area below to retest. We must note - in order to be successful here patience is key Risk management on the trade is pivotal and once enough in profit - put stop loss to breakeven. Please see related the ideas for our longterm outlook: We hope you enjoy our content: Please leave your thoughts and analysis to why you agree or not. To our followers, many thanks for the support. Team Lupa.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by LupaCapital
S&P vs Russell 2000Hello traders and analysts, Here is our take on the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 Small Cap. It is important here is to note; that the peak of the hull for SPX has hit our island zone where price has shown a full retracement in the V shaped recovery and extended a little to provide great returns for long investors and over offered market conditions. The cycle to us looks complete. Note: This zone now between 3600 - 3400 is a strong supply but has potential to retest 3700 for the full Fibonacci extension. however the signs with the volatility index and yields are now showing signs of clusters of building a nice level of discounted levels. Where as the SPX, NAS and world indices are seeing over exposed with a strong imbalance. Now we let the price and market show us where opportunities present itself to look for shorts. Enjoy. Fore more sub text - read below; Technicals: 1. Looking back to 2000, 2008 - the dotcom, financial banking crisis and now 'Covid' - we can see a nice megaphone pattern which has emerged looking back since February 2018. We have completed the the downward impulse of the wave pattern 1-5, with all waves forming without breaking the structure. we are now in the minor wave 2 structure. and next up is the 5 wave corrective structure and looking to complete wave on the trendline . 2. From an imbalance method, we have a good double top retest which is showing profit and greed taking helped on from the Fed and using Fibonacci extension - price can over shoot to create an upper supply zone . Price has seen a bounce back to 'normal priced of demand' however this is not really how halted economies can return so fast. it is artificial. Divergence - we did not use this but looking at the pattern, we have a huge distinguishing gap. However this keeps widening - whilst we do not look at the divergence indicator, it does show a good area for sells - and according to RSI - we are not there yet technically speaking 80 zone is a major sell. 3. Looking at the VIX - the dollar is weakening to a 90-91 lows - however the buying of this at the lows will produce huge rewards. Check out or Vix for long inverse 4. Looking at Russell and SPY has the gap to fill to $340.00 per share , is this sustainable growth which is being propped up - with earnings quarter now in play, we will see those numbers finally provide profit targets either severely missed or the few will beat earnings . Fundamentals: US election rallies before taking place at the end of the year with campaigning - enter volatility state We have NFP numbers showing millions return to work.. but also high unemployment still looming. Trade war with China, Hong Kong unfolding with US responding - constantly.. High figures in multiple states which are concerns for large communities- record numbers still being released Fiscal intervention in July, August for stimulus.. constant printing money is not good for the economy. US tech stocks have seen the highest returns and zero confirmation by Dow30 and S&P following suit. - will this last? no.. billionaires just adding wealth, SME businesses not receiving the correct funding at all.. Dow 30 is in a fragile state and desperate to keep pushing higher but limited upside will cause a steep decline - refer to Dow chart.. around 28,500 is a good point for a previous monthly high but it may fall over at 28000 tops. - this is now being challenged Crippling 1trillion money printing exercise to be released to prop up false growth. enter sovereign debt crisis Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. The reason for these charts is show the detail behind the thought process. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment or even donate. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by LupaCapital
1
S&P 500 - Megaphone complete, now sellUpdate to our long term S&P analysis. Check the link below: Hello traders and analysts, Here is update to our weekly outlook provided April 24th and July 22 judging by the closeness of our results so far - we are pretty much on track to our prediction. We are already short on this and will hold our sells in conjunctions with longs and close out longs as price hits highs. Do not over leverage and apply risk management if you use our analysis for your own benefit. Technicals: 1. Looking back to 2000, 2008 - the dotcom, financial banking crisis and now 'Covid' - we can see a nice megaphone pattern which has emerged looking back since February 2018. We have completed the the downward impulse of the wave pattern 1-5, with all waves forming without breaking the structure. we are now in the minor wave 2 structure. and next up is the 5 wave corrective structure and looking to complete wave on the trendline . 2. From an imbalance method, we have a good double top retest which is showing profit and greed taking helped on from the Fed and using Fibonacci extension - price can over shoot to create an upper supply zone . Price has seen a bounce back to 'normal priced of demand' however this is not really how halted economies can return so fast. it is artificial. Divergence - we did not use this but looking at the pattern, we have a huge distinguishing gap. However this keeps widening - whilst we do not look at the divergence indicator, it does show a good area for sells - and according to RSI - we are not there yet technically speaking 80 zone is a major sell. 3. Looking at the VIX - the dollar is weakening to a 90-91 lows - however the buying of this at the lows will produce huge rewards. Check out or Vix for long inverse 4. Looking at Russell and SPY has the gap to fill to $340.00 per share , is this sustainable growth which is being propped up - with earnings quarter now in play, we will see those numbers finally provide profit targets either severely missed or the few will beat earnings . Fundamentals: US election rallies before taking place at the end of the year with campaigning - enter volatility state We have NFP numbers showing millions return to work.. but also high unemployment still looming. Trade war with China, Hong Kong unfolding with US responding - constantly.. High figures in multiple states which are concerns for large communities- record numbers still being released Fiscal intervention in July, August for stimulus.. constant printing money is not good for the economy. US tech stocks have seen the highest returns and zero confirmation by Dow30 and S&P following suit. - will this last? no.. billionaires just adding wealth, SME businesses not receiving the correct funding at all.. Dow 30 is in a fragile state and desperate to keep pushing higher but limited upside will cause a steep decline - refer to Dow chart.. around 28,500 is a good point for a previous monthly high but it may fall over at 28000 tops. - this is now being challenged Crippling 1trillion money printing exercise to be released to prop up false growth. enter sovereign debt crisis Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by LupaCapital
GBP AUD - Long activatedHello traders and analysts; What can we see? On the Commodity currency side 0.740x targets in AUDUSD were hit- but then after a new high, the Dollar came into play during new york to provide some fresh liquidity. The GBP also saw some pullbacks against the Dollar and Yen alike to create some discounted buys for bulls. The order flow is in effect. The concern surrounding GBP Brexit is ever closer to forming - where highs of 1.40 could be in swingers favour, but keep in mind the structural low when the dollar becomes stronger over the winter months as markets in the US begin to shake over the election. GBP can be shallow losses to buy dips at present but longer term - anticipating discounted dollar vs pound. Technicals: What can we see technically? - Daily bearish but breaking momentum short in the channel - price has been ranging alot between 1.805 - 1.84 highs. - weekly range formed to created a new structure high and price has now tested the 38.2% fibonacci retracement to show signs of bullish price flows against the Aussie. - Price trapped all the sellers yesterday dipping to 1.81, but retracement aside - price is now adding longs. - strong Aussie and Strong GBP - bounce from the demand zone - this has now been completed - we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct - this has now occurred. - we have made lower lows and lower highs- showing the correction - now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks formed and a reversal to the upside - this has been boosted by GBP Tuesday as of writing. -AUD USD ranging market looking to break 0.74+ for upside strength in the middle channel. - COT report in favour of GBP now with longs added and shorts closed in the past few weeks however, risk off will shift sentiment to immediate bias. Fundamentals Aussie is a commodity currency so is highly affected with exports of natural resources, Gold , Oil , Grains, Copper etc. Victoria lockdown has caused issues for the restart of the border openings - premiers still in talks to resolve border openings USD outlook affects the progress of strength for Australia. Coronavirus within the US sees an affect on the economy for the US as a result affects directly Australia where the index correlates. USD sees 1Trillion package for stimulus package - but no agreement - COVID update still lacking. GBP - lacking a trade deal can affect the GBP on the world stage - but positions are being added so this is good for the GBP gaining strength against majors, however with the Aussie struggling with Dollar correction and GBP strength in orders, the Aussie will be unfavourable in the pair. Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
Long
by LupaCapital
1
GBP AUD LongsHello, a quick setup for additional longs where GBP has retraced to our compression breakout - price will look to our 50-61.8% ratio on the fibonacci in order to create liquidity. Price has on the higher timeframe rejected 1.84 - so the supply is still activated, but for the purpose of longs - this zone will be a good fresh zone for price to build upon as a demand - due to the candles left which show a nice block and aligning to respect Fib levels. We hope this assists your trading, note - the trade is only valid if it fits your criteria and also provides rejection of a pinbar, wick, inverted hammer or provides reversal signals. Trading is about timing unfortunately, which is alot of traders worst nightmares despite having great analysis and knowing the direction. Many thanks, enjoy and if interested, leave your thoughts and likes to know our analysis is working for you. Thanks, Team Lupa
Long
by LupaCapital
GBP JPY - long smaller time frameHello analysts and traders, We have an end of monthly candle close this week - price will look to close a bullish monthly close which is perfect. September will be an interesting month. Our trade is still running - but will test the wick at 141.6XX area. On the smaller time frames 141 hurdle is still showing a good area where an engulfing on the 15min showed a good promise to add a position. A smaller time frame entry is the 30min candle close - price can show an opportunity for price to discount itself. Be aware of the UK bank holiday - however trading can still commence. For us personally only a small entry was taken - 140.96 - but has enough movement to wick fill. Enjoy the end of month. More analysis to come in a pivotal month of September. Thanks for following us and liking our analysis. Team Lupa.
Long
by LupaCapital
SPX500 intraday tradeHello traders and analysts, Here is a quick trade currently in play. What is price showing us? A discount from the high has been offered by the market - with the 0.705 Fibonacci respected. It is important here to not - the price has broken from the rejection to fill more orders from this hourly offering candle. Using the 4 hour - price has had a nice clean move - and now is tailing off into a consolidation after yesterday move. If price breaks 3420 - sell liquidity is now activated further offering a low resistance trade. Our entry: We are long - entry of 3423 - however chart will read 3427 as Oanda is slightly out as price did not reach the zone the broker has. Quick psychology: Good luck, when happy - cut the trade to let the remainder run. If in drawdown - cut losses if pips fall and panic sets in. This should not happen as using correct risk/reward allows the correct trading plan to win or lose. We hope this mini breakdown helps. Best of luck, Team Lupa.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by LupaCapital
XAU USD - short battle before a longterm continuationHello traders and analysts, This is marked as short for short term but overall bullish gold - just as liquidations occur during "summer period". Here is our take on XAU COT DATA: AVG Longs Shorts Total long short Avg_13 306,481 65,875 372,356 82% 18% Avg_20 298,457 54,145 352,601 85% 15% Avg_130 265,613 90,138 355,751 74% 26% Technicals Heavy longs from both non commercial and retail investors. Daily longs are still in play Weekly longs Monthly long Retrace is occurring on the weekly time frame - but can this be building up Fibonacci level aligns of 50% around 1939 and 61.8% at 1907.00 USD. This retracement zone will show a great long identification Retrace needed to to confirm liquidity from the strong demand. Fundamentals Keep an eye on GBP JPY for correlation -as this moves negatively on positive gold and opposite to negative gold moves. Also US treasury yield curves - will send shock waves into the Yellow metal - this is important to understand how the US government has weakened their currency to seem more attractive and create a printing bubble which from an economic standpoint with rising national US Debt - taking away the safehaven power shift will present investors rushing to assets in order to create demand. The USD will maintain in profit taking and realisation of over value, the price will see stocks fall. Keep an eye on August September - October being a pinnacle month for shift in supply demand - timing before the election also. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by LupaCapital
NZD JPY shortHello, just a quick one analysts and traders We have a good opportunity as the supply zone in the green has been rejected. On the 4 hour we drew a second fibonacci to look for an entry point as you can see on the chart. The Aussie is still strong but needs a retracement - price can continue to breakthrough but the sells are in play for now. Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
Short
by LupaCapital
3
GBP AUD - update Hello traders and analysts, we have a nice update to GBP AUD - now the weekly and monthly zone has been touched and rejected - the bulls are in play now COT data: - will update when released Tuesday in the comments. Technicals: What can we see technically? - Daily bearish but breaking momentum short in the channel. - weekly range formed bettwne the red zone and green highlighted - monthly we have seen a demand formed and a great monthly bullish candle. 1.84 has now been rejected twice so the next hurdle is to overcome this. - strong Aussie and Strong GBP - bounce from the demand zone - this has now been completed - we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct - this has now occurred. - we have made lower lows and lower highs- showing the correction - now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks formed and a reversal to the upside - this has been boosted by GBP Tuesday as of writing. -AUD USD ranging market looking to break 0.72+ for upside strength and struggling to break. - COT report in favour of GBP now with longs added and shorts closed in the past few weeks however, risk off will shift sentiment to immediate bias. Fundamentals Aussie is a commodity currency so is highly affected with exports of natural resources, Gold , Oil , Grains, Copper etc. Victoria lockdown has caused issues for the restart of the border openings USD outlook affects the progress of strength for Australia. Coronavirus within the US sees an affect on the economy for the US as a result affects directly Australia where the index correlates. USD sees 1Trillion package for stimulus package - but no agreement GBP - lacking a trade deal can affect the GBP on the world stage - but positions are being added so this is good for the GBP gaining strength against majors, however with the Aussie struggling with Dollar correction and GBP strength in orders, the Aussie will be unfavourable in the pair. Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
Long
by LupaCapital
XAG USD - Update to previousXAG USD during the APAC session provided a nice bottom out and pullback from the daily 61.8% touch. Our analysis yesterday was invalidated during time of posting due to the pullback not completing but testing the main demand highlighted below in the blue zone . We saw a great order block build and the sellers reject with bullish pressure from the demand block for structure. Price is now showing us a great opportunity to head up to 29 again, however, remain cautious - the bearish move is still in play despite silver being 5.5%+ for the day. But price on the higher timeframe has retraced to a demand imbalance and orders will be picked up - so from here we are expecting price to range between the 23.7 -24.00 now the zones are established the demand is in control. See our previous trades . We have closed one trade previous and still have the original running from 14.88$. Enjoy looking through our previous trades to follow the journey to now. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced level. KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by LupaCapital
XAG USD new potential demand zone at 61.8%Hello traders and analysts, Despite the huge sell off today - which has been anticipated as the price hit a great supply and completed a great W formation - Bears took over to retrace to our 61.8% zone [but not there yet to get buys in. Prefer confirmation as this sell off was very impulsive. Why are we going long still? Well if the price is showing us - this 25$ zone is a great opportunity if price closes above if not, this zone is invalid. But price on the higher timeframe has retraced to a demand imbalance and orders will be picked up - so from here we are expecting price to range between the 25-29zone. now the zones are established. See our previous trades . We have closed one trade previous and still have the original running from 14.88$. Enjoy looking through our previous trades to follow the journey to now. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by LupaCapital
4
USD CHF - new short opportunity update Hello traders and analysts, Here is an update - see linked idea below. we have a new opportunity for the USD CHF - we have a nice correctional move for some dollar strength after an impulse move - however; the 50% fibonacci has been rejected - so now looking for a entry if price corrects up to 38.2% or the 50% again - in order to collect further orders. Remember: Trading is reactive - The Dollar is weak - but still has an opportunity here to reverse before the ride continues down. Nothing has changed to our previous bias - it is clear longs have been added. Expectations based on the consolidation: Technicals: 20month + consolidation of the pair ranging from 1.00 to 0.93 - now the price has broken the distribution Weekly demand zone - however, the demand has previous touches this is the so the chances of a breakthrough from the strong safehaven of the CHF is a likelihood. Looking at the VIX - we can see this increasing by a large amount first targets are 40.00 DXY the dollar is weakening to a 95.2 lows - however the buying of this at the lows will produce huge rewards - the lows of 82 are to be tested. Looking at Russell and SPY has the gap to fill to $340.00 per share , is this sustainable growth which is being propped up - with earnings quarter now in play, we will see those numbers finally provide profit targets either severely missed or the few will beat earnings . Nasdaq monthly close will be a bearish hammer unless bulls keep the 10,600 supply intact. Fundamentals: US election rallies before taking place at the end of the year with campaigning - We have NFP numbers showing millions return to work.. but also high unemployment still looming. Trade war with China, Hong Kong unfolding with US responding High figures in multiple states which are concerns for large communities- record numbers still being released Fiscal intervention in July, August for stimulus.. constant printing money is not good for the economy. US tech stocks have seen the highest returns and zero confirmation by Dow30 and S&P following suit. - will this last? no.. billionaires just adding wealth, SME businesses not receiving the correct funding at all.. Dow 30 is in a fragile state and desperate to keep pushing higher but limited upside will cause a steep decline - refer to Dow chart.. around 27,000 is a good point for a previous monthly high but it may fall over at 28000 tops. Crippling 1trillion money printing exercise to be released to prop up false growth. enter sovereign debt crsis - printing all this money is just beyond words. With having a weak dollar and inflation created - the dollar will be out of favour. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital
1
GBP JPY - ride the wave downHello analysts and traders, We have a long term sell in play - the reason why is end of the month and positions are manipulated in order to create tops and profit take. is there a looming supply in which the supply and demand imbalance has created with retail traders still hoping for further longs? Or are August September going to be safehaven assets? Quick technicals; - Channel has formed nicely - - Bullish GBP and still a strong Yen . - Awaiting a nice rejection of the supply mid channel or top of the channel. - Fibonacci - retracement almost at 50% monthly. - Price on the wider timeframe keeps showing a great wave pattern to the downside. Fundamentals - Brexit deal looms and trade deal around the world for the US needs to trigger a large response. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital
USD CHF - to the earths coreHello analysts and traders - Let's take a look for a long term sell USD CHF - please note, our positions and entries will change with accordance for the market conditions. COT Data: Averages Long Short Total %Long %Short Avg_13 12,661 7,169 19,830 64% 36% Avg_20 13,054 8,583 21,637 62% 38% Avg_130 13,200 16,542 29,740 49% 51% Now let us see the Net position changes - see how strong the Swiss Franc has become. Date Long Short Net Change in positions 14/07/2020 16,526 9,469 25,995 64% 36% 7,057 3,279 07/07/2020 12,832 9,054 21,886 59% 41% 3,778 -560 30/06/2020 12,796 8,458 21,254 60% 40% 4,338 2,890 23/06/2020 11,739 10,291 22,030 53% 47% 1,448 -158 16/06/2020 9,150 7,544 16,694 55% 45% 1,606 -160 09/06/2020 10,463 8,697 19,160 55% 45% 1,766 -7,223 it is clear longs have been added. Expectations based on the consolidation: Technicals: 20month + consolidation of the pair ranging from 1.00 to 0.93 - now the price has broken the distribution Weekly demand zone - however, the demand has previous touches this is the so the chances of a breakthrough from the strong safehaven of the CHF is a likelihood. Looking at the VIX - we can see this increasing by a large amount first targets are 40.00 DXY the dollar is weakening to a 95.2 lows - however the buying of this at the lows will produce huge rewards - the lows of 82 are to be tested. Looking at Russell and SPY has the gap to fill to $340.00 per share , is this sustainable growth which is being propped up - with earnings quarter now in play, we will see those numbers finally provide profit targets either severely missed or the few will beat earnings . Nasdaq monthly close will be a bearish hammer unless bulls keep the 10,600 supply intact. Fundamentals: US election rallies before taking place at the end of the year with campaigning - We have NFP numbers showing millions return to work.. but also high unemployment still looming. Trade war with China, Hong Kong unfolding with US responding High figures in multiple states which are concerns for large communities- record numbers still being released Fiscal intervention in July, August for stimulus.. constant printing money is not good for the economy. US tech stocks have seen the highest returns and zero confirmation by Dow30 and S&P following suit. - will this last? no.. billionaires just adding wealth, SME businesses not receiving the correct funding at all.. Dow 30 is in a fragile state and desperate to keep pushing higher but limited upside will cause a steep decline - refer to Dow chart.. around 27,000 is a good point for a previous monthly high but it may fall over at 28000 tops. Crippling 1trillion money printing exercise to be released to prop up false growth. enter sovereign debt crsis - printing all this money is just beyond words. With having a weak dollar and inflation created - the dollar will be out of favour. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital
EUR USD Daily if price rejects the zone - sell.Here is the EUR chart only - note these setups are to show where if price rejects we will look short - same information below as previous post - incase traders see this instead. We have our take on the EUR USD - a lot of speculators have seen the Euro as the stronger of the currencies against the USD which has been seen as out of favour - but this is all part of the plan from the FED and US government in order to see the dollar as good for import and export . Is this all part of the money printing plan for the future to de-value the dollar? or a huge mistake causing an sovereign debt crisis? or just part of supply and demand? Let's see the Data: COT Data: EUR AVG Long Short Total long% Short % Net Change Avg_13 180,947 86,109 267,056 68% 32% 94,837 2,910 Avg_20 171,218 105,719 276,937 63% 37% 65,499 9,843 Avg_130 169,626 177,152 346,778 51% 49% -7,256 3,155 Avg_50 169,349 175,216 344,565 51% 49% -5,867 3,381 USD AVG Long Short Total long% Short % Net Change Avg_13 18,057 12,046 30,554 60% 40% 6,462 -1,569 Avg_20 19,538 12,046 31,584 62% 38% 7,491 -958 AVG 50 30,399 11,917 42,316 70% 30% 18,481 -742 Avg_130 31,126 12,171 43,297 70% 30% 18,955 -672 Technicals: Monthly Fibonacci retracement drawn and shows price will either bounce and reject 61.8% Fibonacci retrace a break to the upside will test the 70.5% or hit the 1.21 zone - Note the monthly trendline from using the Ray - has proved the constant lower highs and lower lows printed in the cycles. The lowest low of 1.066 has shown a good retest zone for targets. Fundamentals: US election rallies before taking place at the end of the year with campaigning - We have NFP numbers showing millions return to work.. but also high unemployment still looming. Trade war with China, Hong Kong unfolding with US responding High figures in multiple states which are concerns for large communities- record numbers still being released Fiscal intervention in July, August for stimulus.. constant printing money is not good for the economy. US tech stocks have seen the highest returns and zero confirmation by Dow30 and S&P following suit. - will this last? no.. billionaires just adding wealth, SME businesses not receiving the correct funding at all.. Dow 30 is in a fragile state and desperate to keep pushing higher but limited upside will cause a steep decline - refer to Dow chart.. around 27,000 is a good point for a previous monthly high but it may fall over at 28000 tops. Crippling 1trillion money printing exercise to be released to prop up false growth. enter sovereign debt crsis - printing all this money is just beyond words. With having a weak dollar and inflation created - the dollar will be out of favour. Euro second wave & quarantine rules for tourists outside EU and now Spain for UK. Brexit talks are still in focus as not much separates a no deal scenario. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital
EUR USD vs Exy Hello traders and analysts - We have our take on the EUR USD - a lot of speculators have seen the Euro as the stronger of the currencies against the USD which has been seen as out of favour - but this is all part of the plan from the FED and US government in order to see the dollar as good for import and export . Is this all part of the money printing plan for the future to de-value the dollar? or a huge mistake causing an sovereign debt crisis? or just part of supply and demand? Let's see the Data: COT Data: EUR AVG Long Short Total long% Short % Net Change Avg_13 180,947 86,109 267,056 68% 32% 94,837 2,910 Avg_20 171,218 105,719 276,937 63% 37% 65,499 9,843 Avg_130 169,626 177,152 346,778 51% 49% -7,256 3,155 Avg_50 169,349 175,216 344,565 51% 49% -5,867 3,381 USD AVG Long Short Total long% Short % Net Change Avg_13 18,057 12,046 30,554 60% 40% 6,462 -1,569 Avg_20 19,538 12,046 31,584 62% 38% 7,491 -958 AVG 50 30,399 11,917 42,316 70% 30% 18,481 -742 Avg_130 31,126 12,171 43,297 70% 30% 18,955 -672 Technicals: Monthly Fibonacci retracement drawn and shows price will either bounce and reject 61.8% Fibonacci retrace a break to the upside will test the 70.5% or hit the 1.21 zone - Note the monthly trendline from using the Ray - has proved the constant lower highs and lower lows printed in the cycles. The lowest low of 1.066 has shown a good retest zone for targets. Fundamentals: US election rallies before taking place at the end of the year with campaigning - We have NFP numbers showing millions return to work.. but also high unemployment still looming. Trade war with China, Hong Kong unfolding with US responding High figures in multiple states which are concerns for large communities- record numbers still being released Fiscal intervention in July, August for stimulus.. constant printing money is not good for the economy. US tech stocks have seen the highest returns and zero confirmation by Dow30 and S&P following suit. - will this last? no.. billionaires just adding wealth, SME businesses not receiving the correct funding at all.. Dow 30 is in a fragile state and desperate to keep pushing higher but limited upside will cause a steep decline - refer to Dow chart.. around 27,000 is a good point for a previous monthly high but it may fall over at 28000 tops. Crippling 1trillion money printing exercise to be released to prop up false growth. enter sovereign debt crsis - printing all this money is just beyond words. With having a weak dollar and inflation created - the dollar will be out of favour. Euro second wave & quarantine rules for tourists outside EU and now Spain for UK. Brexit talks are still in focus as not much separates a no deal scenario. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
TVC:EXYShort
by LupaCapital