Bitcoin Trend Change - Bear Confirmation Potential SoonFirst post of, hopefully, many. My overall strategic guidelines are below and will constantly evolve. For this post, we will analyze the potential Bear trend confirmation on the XBTUSD: Kraken Monthly chart. Look at the chart closely, and follow the notes/comments/bullets that are below. The TL:DR projection is in bold
LWC: Location SuperCycle4E (SC4E) - Contracting Triangle (D top = G)
Trend: Down
Trade: Short after the price falls below the evening star (G)
Recent Pivot: G $12,480.60
Candlestick Pattern: Evening star • G is the star • The formation is three candles: 1. the one to the left of G (engulfing green), 2. G star, and 3. the red engulfing candle to the right
Validation/Confirmation:
- Multiple time pivots on G
- Failed at .618 major retracement resistance
- SC4D rode .75 Andrews to failure
- Lower and declining vol.
- slight bearish divergence
- 4th wave violations on all timeframes
- Good triangle shape
- D and F first two rising bottoms
- C, E, & G triple tops
• Short the triple top G after candle confirmation
- SC4C = .618/SC4A;
- SC4D = .786/SC4B
- SC4A large engulfing reversal
- SC4B good reversal pattern
- SC4D large engulfing reversal
- G pivot on evening star reversal
Projection/Trade Tactic:
- SC4E bottom: $6,450 (Projected H)
- Short the triple top G after candle confirmation
• Short below bottom of evening star $10,590
- High risk Stop loss: $10,643 (.5% above $10,590)
- Low risk Stop loss: $12,530 (.5% above G)
- Remember that the full trend time may be 2-6 months or more
- Pick your profit level based on supports below, time, or a MA bounce
• $9,917.50
• $9,438.30
• $8,895.00
• $8,087.50
• $7,700.00
• $7,000.00
• SC4E projected bottom: $6,450
Projected H may be 3rd bottom for buying
Here are the data points:
Price Pivots:
A $1,198.80
B $175.00
C $19,660.00
D $3,120.00
E $13,875.70
F $3,913.10
G $12,480.60
LWC: Trends
- SC3: B_C
- SC4A: C_D
- SC4B: D_E
- SC4C: E_F
- SC4D: F_G
All Trends: ( Trend/GFactor/Gdegree/time )
A_B/31.9969/8758.44/14
A_C/135.8720/24456.96/49
B_C/139.5887/25125.96/35
B_D/54.2679/9768.21/47
B_F/61.14/11005.20/62
C_D/128.6079/23149.43/12(1 year)
C_E/76.0546/13689.83/18
C_F/125.4857/22587.60/27
C_G/84.7313/15251.64/32
D_E/103.7097/18667.74/6
D_F/28.1620/5069.17/15
D_G/96.7502/17415.03/20
E_F/99.8128/17966.31/9
E_G/37.3510/6723.19/14
F_G/92.5608/16660.94/5
My overall TA strategic approach of various cryptocurrencies, in the form of my personal guidelines and foundational values driving trend analysis-based swing trading. Generally, the preferred swing trading method for me is following the trend and confirming trend changes with Gann/Lucas/Fib numbers and methodologies. If you do not know what the important numbers are, do research on the former gurus. I recommend conducting one's own research and always improve knowledge and skills. Always. Remember risk management and setting stops before you trade.
1) LWC is the map, time our compass - validate on price and confirm with candlesticks
2) EVERY trade: LWC location, time bearing, price validation, and candle confirmation are required
3) All LWC counts, Gann degrees/factors, and time assessments need validation at a smaller time frame
4) Trade off candlesticks that confirm pivots which display a trend change
5) Trust the process and numbers
6) Trade with the trend in your chosen time frame
7) Start large and work small
