Get started

Lyft

UBER Breakout Imminent UBER is about to make a large movement. I don’t usually operate on 1h candles, but with Uber we don’t have much history to look at. In the three weeks since its IPO, Uber has been surprisingly boring to watch. This is mostly due to the unfortunate timing of its launch. In the week of Uber’s IPO the market experienced its highest volatility since the Christmas massacre. We have yet to decide whether 2019’s party is over, but Uber will likely trade as an amplified version of market’s decision. Uber has been forming a small flag since its debut, unsure of which direction it should breakout. Options expiring in two weeks currently hold a 5% premium in both directions, anticipating the coming move, but split on the direction it will take. Since before its launch I have felt that, should the market have another significant leg to its bull run, UBER could potentially be a significant bubble of 2019 in similar fashion to the cannabis industry in 2018 and cryptocurrency in 2017. Whenever enough attention is focused on the future, anticipation surpasses reality without fail. With markets this creates bubbles as the integral variable of time falls from calculations. While there is a large upside to UBER at the moment, it will be entirely subject to prevailing market sentiment, which is currently a jittery mix of trepidation and ambition. It wants to go all in on one more hand, but it also knows that it’s drunk and should head on home to recover. Relevant indicators: 1. As mentioned, we have a flag forming. Volume has been drying up as market players place their bets over the last few weeks, and when the dice roll soon, the price will either break above 45 or below 35, the current high and low created by the first two trading days. 2. Bloomberg recently reported that 70% of available shares for shorting are lent out. This high amount indicates a strong belief in the downside, but it also shows a saturation of the position that hasn’t yet managed to materialize, indicating that it may not be strong enough to dissuade investors who want in on UBER. 2. Uber is not a profitable company, which means any investments made currently will require a large amount of time to bring a return from the company itself. The only way to profit off of a company like this is if someone else is more excited about the investment than you. Netflix (NFLX) is an example of this. These companies are expanding rapidly, and all returns are reinvested immediately in a battle to grab future market share. Due to time being such an unknown variable for the return, there is a natural inclination to the downside caused by reality that can only be countered by an increasing amount of hype regarding the potential returns of the future. This factor is largely dependent on overall market sentiment, but high-profile companies like Uber are the ones that best achieve this. 1. Lyft had its IPO shortly before Uber, and with the stock’s premier going a way similar to Facebook’s initial launch, this seems a simple instinctive guess to the direction due to LYFT being the closest comparison on the surface. But Uber is not Lyft, and its image and scope can be argued to place it in a different class than Lyft, rendering the comparison flawed. If investments in the future of self-driving cars are going to operate similarly to that of media and entertainment like Netflix, then Uber is the obvious choice for an investment in this future. Note: Bottom trend line may be entirely accurate due to such limited information. While This movement is expected imminently, there is no accurate way to determine the exact timing for this.
NYSE:UBER
by avidbrandy
Picking a Buy Point for Uber (UBER)The IPO for Uber (UBER) has fallen out the bed. The company priced its IPO at $45, opened at $42, and closed at $41.57. UBER’s one-day total loss in value from the IPO price was apparently the largest in history. For a moment, UBER looked like it could stabilize around its poor first day. Unfortunately, the next trading day a major market sell-off helped take UBER down another 11.0% to close at $37.00. {Uber (UBER) is two days old and has managed to sink 17.8% from its IPO price. This 15-minute chart shows the current persistence of selling.} I believe retail investors have typically been left out of the big IPO cash machine of 2019 (like most successful IPOs). Yet, with 207M shares put out to market (180M from the company and 27M from selling stockholders), I strongly suspect too many retail investors got caught up in the UBER slide. First of all, valuation is a tenuous metric for UBER. TechCrunch provided great coverage of the UBER S1 filing which threw into question the $90-$100B valuation at the time, down from a peak of around $120B. UBER is now valued at a $62B market cap. Here are some choice quotes which undermined any justification for premium pricing for UBER: “…Those figures say show Uber’s growth slowing as it scaled. Still, at Uber’s revenue scale, growing 42 percent is impressive. However, the pace of deceleration from 2017’s over 100 percent figure could provide pause to some investors looking at Uber’s results from a growth perspective. And, when examined quarterly, the company’s revenue deceleration is even starker…a closer look at those quarterly results indicates that the company is growing at a rate much slower than that yearly total.” “The company’s operating losses decreased year over year from $4.1 billion to $3.1 billion. Improving net loss is a positive for Uber, but $3.1 billion is still a huge figure, particularly within the context of slowing growth.” In other words, UBER is NOT the kind of stock investors should rush to grant a premium. Still, UBER is now priced at 5.5x sales, just above the 5.1x for Grub Hub (GRUB) which competes directly with Uber Eats and also strongly relies upon a flexible labor force of non-professional drivers. {Grubhub (GRUB) is well off its all-time highs but has not (yet?) reversed the big breakout from July, 2017.} Based on this admittedly simplistic valuation exercise, I am going to hazard a guess that buying Uber around current levels is a good long-term bet assuming it proves to be a viable business. My preferred spot to buy UBER is around 5x sales or $33-$34 to account for more of the risk in the business and the stock. Technicals should help refine the entry point. For technicals, I lean on my framework of stepping aside while sellers are getting busy and jumping in when buyers show strong interest: “Anatomy of A Bottom: Do Not Argue With Sellers – Celebrate With Buyers.” In Uber’s case, buyers prove nothing until they are able to at least breach Monday’s gap down. In the absolute best case scenario, I would buy at $39.50 and stop out below $36. I will be much more interested in applying the technical framework if (once?) UBER breaks $36. I will likely be slow to speculate on UBER because I got caught up using options to generate a lower entry price on Lyft (LYFT). At $48.15/share Lyft is well below the $55 strike price of the last put I sold (October expiration). Lyft is currently valued at 5.4x sales, but I used GRUB for UBER’s valuation yardstick because of its extended trading history. {Lyft (LYFT) closed at a fresh all-time low after freshly breaking down last week.} Options are not yet available for UBER. When they are trading, I will reach for selling puts before next picking a spot to buy shares. Be careful out there! Full disclosure: short LYFT puts and long calls
NYSE:UBERLong
by drduru
The Famous IPO Cycle. $UBER $LYFT $FB $SNAP // Uber overvalued?The Famous IPO Cycle. $UBER $LYFT $FB $SNAP The Famous IPO Cycle. $UBER $LYFT $FB $SNAP $UBER In 2018, Dara Khosrowshahi's first full year as Uber's CEO, the company narrowed losses and continued to grow revenue, though at a slower pace than in the previous year. According to the private company's self-reported financials, full-year revenue for 2018 was $11.3 billion, up 43 percent year over year. Gross bookings, or the amount collected before payouts to drivers, grew to $50 billion for the year, up 45 percent from the prior year. Its adjusted losses decreased 15 percent in 2018 to $1.8 billion, down from $2.2 billion in 2017. The figure excludes the company's sale of its Russia and Southeast Asia businesses. Including those two sales to Yandex and Grab, respectively, Uber actually saw GAAP losses of $370 million. GAAP losses in 2017 were $4.5 billion. So while the growth rate is strong by most standards, Uber's growth decelerated over 2018. On a quarterly basis, Uber continues to report heavy losses and slowing growth. Uber's revenue for the fourth quarter came in at $3 billion, up 25 percent from the same quarter last year, lower than the 38 percent it grew in Q3. While that's not viable for most public companies, Uber is expected to go public this year with a rumored valuation of over $120 billion, and investors will have to decide if Uber's slowing growth warrants that valuation. In the fourth quarter of 2018, Uber also reported an adjusted loss of $768 million. A $358 million benefit from income taxes cut down what would have been a more than $840 million adjusted loss. Gross bookings for Q4 came in at $14.2 billion, up 37 percent from the same quarter a year prior. It's the highest it has ever been, the company told investors. In the lead-up to its 2019 IPO, Uber is pitching itself as a full platform for transportation and logistics, not just ride-hailing. The company hopes that moonshot projects such as Uber freight, electronic bikes, autonomous driving and its development of flying cars will help it own a piece of every trip across any vehicle. However, these segments are costly for Uber to develop, weighing on Uber's long-term profitability. Khosrowshahi took over Uber in November 2017 from founder Travis Kalanick. He inherited a company that was growing quickly but losing billions overseas and roiled by controversy and board infighting. One of his first moves was to retreat from Russia. A few months later, he sold Uber's unprofitable Southeast Asia business. He has hired a CFO and COO, and so far, appears on track to bring the company public this year. At the same time, Khosrowshahi has made big expensive bets, such as Uber's acquisition of the bike- and scooter-sharing start-up Jump, and doubling down on expanding Uber Eats. Uber now considers food delivery part of its core business, along with ride-hailing. While it didn't break out UberEats for the fourth quarter, the segment made up 17 percent of its business in Q3. Back in October, Uber said it was expanding its food-delivery business to cover 70 percent of the U.S. by the end of 2018. Uber's take rate, or the percentage of revenue Uber makes for every gross booking, declined in Q4. The company told investors that the decline is due to continued investment in new lines of business and rising competition. Uber may be spending more in the lead-up to its IPO to shore up its market share. Research firm Second Measure shows that Lyft, Uber's largest U.S. competitor, has taken 28.9 percent of the market over the last year. Lyft is also gearing up for an IPO this year, and both companies are racing to get out first. Uber and Lyft filed to go public confidentially on the same day. Uber's CFO, Nelson Chai, called 2018 the company's strongest year yet. "Q4 set another record for engagement on our platform," Chai said in a statement. "In 2018, our ride sharing business maintained category leadership in all regions we serve, Uber Freight gained exciting traction in the US, JUMP e-bikes and e-scooters are on the road in over a dozen cities, and we believe Uber Eats became the largest online food delivery business outside of China, based on gross bookings." SOURCE: CNBC
NASDAQ:LYFTShort
by void_491
Its not getting a lift anytime soon.. Where to start? The loss of $900,000,000 a year? The loss per share of $9.02? A growing impatience and anger with Lyft drivers? I believe people must have thought that Lyft would pop at IPO but its been declining since going public. Except the same with Uber, as they lose almost double that of Lyft every year. Ride-sharing companies are not a sound investment and they have plateaued in terms of innovation. Sadly, ride-share companies severely hurt taxi and black car services, putting many out of business because of how popular it became. So, this means ride-sharing is doing good? At a loss of $900,000,000 - $1,800,000,000 dollars.. no one is profiting. Not taxi, black car, or ride share companies and neither the drivers. Lyft will need to raise prices on rides soon or face problems with liquidity as well as mass driver walk-away. Once they raise prices, the advantage of ride-sharing will disappear. If you are holding at IPO price, it's better to take a loss because it doesn't seem like Lyft will be coming up anytime soon. There are almost no new products, markets, or innovations that Lyft can come up with to bring in a boost in share prices and optimism. This one is a major sell. The line includes days of up and down, but it will fizzle away. Target ? $25 or lower.. where it will play around flat until some major announcement will spike it up, than fizzle away again. How fast? No one knows.. December showed us how a bear market and fear come into play, things could go south in a matter of days when fear comes into play.
NASDAQ:LYFTShort
by WorldEconomics
LYFT 1-HOUR TIMEFRAME LONGThe price has found support once again at the 55.75 level and started a small rally. I am quite optimistic about this stock as it has broken its unconfirmed descending trendline to the upside. This could be the start of a bull market. It has not been easy for investors in this stock as prices have tanked since its listing. Further upward movement will also be confirmed if prices do breakout of the double bottom pattern and make new highs. However, it is important to wait first as price will show its hand in good time
NASDAQ:LYFTLong
by munyaelliott
2
$LYFT Possible Reversal HereIf you measure from the highs to the lows (with the little trading data we currently have), you'll see that we have about a 37% decline from the IPO highs. As $LYFT and $UBER are viewed as a duopoly and depending on Uber's valuation at IPO, I think Lyft is well positioned for some upside in the coming trading days to weeks. Now if you're a fundamental driven investor/trader, I'm well aware of the nasty looking financials but what's new about it in this current market environment? We already have more than 80% of the IPOs coming in as zombies (no EPS) and this is not much of a surprise...If the markets want to transact on only sales multiples and disregard EPS, well that is what the markets want. As a student of the markets and long time observer, it's always more wise to respect the demands of the markets and disregard one's bias as this is the nature of trading/investing. Anyways, the way I view this trading idea here in Lyft is from the perspective of the current technological environment combined with investors' fear of missing out (FOMO) on a recognized brand. If you analyze Goldman Sachs' latest hiring trends you'll noticed that they have been hiring quite a bit of "technology" investment bankers. This is very telling of macro trends because right now the technology has already bled into every vertical and it seems to be one of the top performing sectors. The point in me explaining this is to elaborate to you what I'm seeing in the markets. In the prior generations I believe most securities were heavily valued based on financial fundamentals and that still remains somewhat true today; however, I would also add that investors these days are also valuing securities heavily on technology. The weight in valuing companies on technology can be so heavy that they are disregarding the financials. In this case, I perceive Lyft being part of that scenario. Lyft being a well recognized brand and only recently IPOed still has a run to the upside to make. I believe the initial decline to the downside from the near 90s were bought by the first wave of FOMOs and that a second wave will come in to drive this security higher. Given Lyft's relatively lowered price and capturing the minds/greed of the broader public investors I think the current setup looks attractive for a fixed risk/reward trade. Consider a trade here (educational purposes only) anticipate some chop as the market's pricing mechanism will come into play.
NASDAQ:LYFTLong
by finvizclub
LYFT -- If you missed the short, couple places to reloadLYFT Continuing with my previous plan (The GAP), this stock is still going to make attempts at $50. Here are some places where I am looking for a reload of either a shorter term play and/or more of a positional play, IF, the move doesn't just continue down to the original target LO of $50. As much as I do not follow text book setups, sometimes they do match up my current thought process/strategy and this is one of those times...keeping it simple and staying patient.
NASDAQ:LYFTShort
by ProSTrades
LYFT (It is about to get lifted soon)Updated View On LYFT (5 Apr 2019) Back Ground: Lyft shakeout is nothing but an attempt of the traders who didn't get it at IPO price and they want it cheap. So, we shall see the rise to continue. $1,300 to $1,310 region shall be acted as strong resistant too. Further bullishness movement will come in only after break out that 1300-1310 region strongly. So watch that region closely. Target(s): UP $77.78 (TP1) SHTF: It will use $65 as strong support. DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too. Feel Free to "Follow", press "LIKE" "Comment". Thank You! Legal Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor. DISCLAIMER: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. Sonicr Mastery Team does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
NASDAQ:LYFTLong
by SonicDeejay