Dow Jones index Wave Analysis – 31 January 2025
- Dow Jones reversed from strong resistance level 45000.00
- Likely to fall to support level 44235.00
Dow Jones index today reversed down from the resistance area located between the strong resistance level 45000.00 (which stopped the previous multi-month uptrend in November) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance area will most likely form the daily Bearish Engulfing – if the price closes today near the current levels.
Given the strength of the resistance level 45000.00 and the overbought daily Stochastic, Dow Jones index can be expected to fall to the next support level 44235.00.
M-oscillator
Understanding RSI In TradingThis article takes a deep dive into the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a powerful tool for traders at any level. We’ll break down how RSI works, how to interpret it, and how to use it effectively in your trading strategies. Plus, we’ll touch on the math behind it. Whether you’re a seasoned pro or just getting started, this guide will give you the insights you need to make RSI a valuable part of your trading toolkit.
Understanding Oscillators in Trading
An oscillator is a technical indicator that moves between two extremes, usually ranging from 0 to 100. Traders use oscillators to spot overbought and oversold conditions in the market. An overbought signal suggests that excessive buying has driven prices too high and may not be sustainable, while an oversold signal indicates the opposite—excessive selling that could lead to a potential rebound. By tracking these price oscillations, traders can anticipate trend reversals and make more informed decisions.
Key Functions of Oscillators:
Momentum Analysis: Oscillators gauge the speed and strength of price movements, offering insights into an asset’s momentum.
Volatility Detection: They help identify periods of high or low volatility, enabling traders to adjust their strategies accordingly.
Trend Confirmation: When combined with other technical indicators, oscillators can validate or reveal emerging trends in the market.
Introduction to the RSI Indicator
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum-based technical indicator used to assess the strength of recent price movements and identify overbought or oversold conditions in an asset. It helps traders spot potential trend reversals by oscillating between 0 and 100. An RSI above 70 suggests the asset may be overbought, while a reading below 30 indicates it may be oversold.
By the end of this, you'll be an RSI expert!
Interpreting RSI Readings
RSI values above 70 suggest that an asset is overbought, meaning it has likely experienced a sharp price increase and may be due for a correction. On the other hand, RSI values below 30 indicate that the asset is oversold, implying a steep price drop and the possibility of a rebound.
However, it's important to remember that RSI isn't foolproof and can occasionally give false signals. To increase accuracy, it's best to use RSI in combination with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis.
Overbought: An RSI reading above 70 signals that the asset may be overbought and due for a correction. This could present a potential selling opportunity, but traders should be cautious, as false signals can occur.
Oversold: An RSI reading below 30 indicates that the asset may be oversold and due for a rebound. This can signal a potential buying opportunity, but again, traders should be cautious of possible false signals.
Divergence: Divergence happens when the RSI moves in the opposite direction of the price. For instance, if the price makes new highs while the RSI forms lower highs, this could point to a potential trend reversal.
Support and Resistance: The RSI can also help identify support and resistance levels. If the RSI consistently bounces off the 30 level, it may indicate a support level. Conversely, if the RSI repeatedly fails to break through the 70 level, this could signal a resistance level.
RSI and Divergence
Divergence happens when the RSI moves in the opposite direction of the asset's price, often signaling a potential trend reversal. For example, if the price is hitting new highs but the RSI forms lower highs, it could indicate a bearish divergence, suggesting a possible sell signal.
A common example of bearish divergence is when the price of an asset makes higher highs, but the RSI forms lower highs. This suggests weakening buying momentum, even as the price continues to rise. It can be a sign that the uptrend may be losing steam, with a reversal to the downside potentially on the horizon.
On the other hand, bullish divergence occurs when the price is making lower lows, but the RSI is making higher lows. This indicates that selling pressure is subsiding, and the asset may be primed for a rebound to the upside. Traders can use this pattern to time their entries for long positions.
RSI divergence can help traders identify overbought or oversold conditions, enabling them to make more effective decisions about entry and exit points. However, divergence should always be used alongside other technical and fundamental analysis for confirmation before acting on the signal.
Calculating the RSI Indicator
Calculating the RSI is straightforward once you break it down. The goal is to determine the average gains and losses over a set period, typically 14 days. This helps assess the strength of price movements and identify overbought or oversold conditions. While the math may sound complex, understanding the formula is key to using the tool effectively.
The RSI formula is:
RSI = 100 - (100 / (1 + (Average Gains / Average Losses)))
This calculation provides valuable insights into the relative strength of an asset’s price movements.
Factors Affecting the RSI Calculation
The RSI calculation can be influenced by several factors, with the length of the time period being the most significant. A shorter period (e.g., 5 days) results in a more volatile RSI that responds quickly to price changes, while a longer period (e.g., 20 days) creates a smoother RSI, filtering out short-term fluctuations. The ideal time period depends on your trading style and the volatility of the market you're analyzing.
Why the RSI Indicator is Powerful
Identifies Overbought and Oversold Conditions: The RSI helps traders recognize when an asset is overbought or oversold, allowing them to time their entries and exits more effectively.
Detects Divergences: Divergences between the RSI and price can signal potential trend reversals, giving traders an early warning to adjust their positions accordingly.
Flexible and Customizable: Traders can adjust the RSI’s period to match their trading style and the specific market conditions, making it a highly versatile tool for technical analysis.
Widely Adopted and Well-Understood: The RSI is one of the most popular technical indicators, with a wealth of resources and analysis available to assist traders in interpreting its signals.
Practical Application in Real Life
Here are a few effective strategies where RSI can be combined with other technical indicators for a more comprehensive analysis:
Example 1: RSI + Support/Resistance + Moving Averages
Scenario:
You are analyzing a stock that has been in an uptrend, with the price currently approaching a key resistance level at $100. The 50-period moving average is also trending upwards, confirming the bullish trend.
The RSI is at 75, indicating an overbought condition.
As the price nears the resistance level, the RSI starts to flatten, suggesting the upward momentum might be weakening.
You wait for the price to fail to break above the $100 resistance level and the RSI to drop below 70, signaling a potential reversal. This provides a clearer sell signal, as both the price and RSI align with the idea that a correction could be coming.
Why this works:
By using both RSI and moving averages with support and resistance, you have a solid confirmation of the potential reversal, as it combines trend analysis with overbought conditions.
Example 2: RSI + SFP (Swing Failure Pattern) + Price Action
Scenario:
You’re monitoring a currency pair that recently made a new low, breaking through a previous swing low at 1.1500. However, the price quickly reverses and fails to sustain the breakdown, bouncing back above the previous low, forming an SFP.
At the same time, the RSI is below 30, but it starts to turn upward, forming a bullish divergence (higher lows on the RSI while the price makes lower lows).
This divergence and the SFP setup suggest that the selling pressure is decreasing, and a potential reversal to the upside could be imminent.
Why this works:
The Swing Failure Pattern highlights the false breakdown, and the RSI divergence confirms that momentum is shifting. This combination increases the likelihood of a successful trade when entering on the potential reversal.
Key Takeways
The RSI is an essential tool for traders looking to spot overbought or oversold conditions and potential trend reversals. By mastering how to interpret RSI readings and incorporating them into your strategies, you can improve your decision-making and potentially boost your trading results. For a more balanced approach, always use RSI alongside other technical indicators and fundamental analysis.
The 3 Step Rocket Booster Strategy With This Crypto PatternIn this video, i share with you the rocket booster
strategy
As its aligned with another candle stick pattern
-
You will clearly see what the New High
New Low means on this crypto BINANCE:HBARUSD
-
And how candle stick patterns can
help you see them
-
If you read Steve Nisons book on candle stick patterns you
will learn more about candlestick patterns
-
Also, you will see how to identify
reversal patterns
-
Because of all this
watch this video to learn more.
-
Also rocket boost this content to learn more.
-
Disclaimer: Trading is risky you will lose money whether
you like it or not
please learn risk management and
profit-taking strategies.
-
Also feel free to use a simulation
trading account
Russell 2000 and 50DMA: The Mix for Explosive MovesWith fresh data on US GDP and inflation arriving over the next two days, Russell 2000 futures look interesting as they close in on the key 50DMA.
The index is testing minor resistance at 2312.8 in thin Asian trade, with the 50DMA not far above at 2323.5. The focus on the latter comes from its tendency to spark explosive moves once the price either breaks or bounces from it.
Over this week and last, bulls have repeatedly probed the level only to be thwarted by bears, painting a picture of a stalemate that may be eventually be resolved in a similar manner. The string of doji candles since only reinforces this view.
If we see a sustained break above the 50DMA, longs could be established above it with a stop either below it or at 2312.8 for protection. 2386.6—which has acted as both support and resistance previously—is one potential target. A break above that would put a retest of record highs on the table.
Alternatively, another rejection at the 50DMA would be a strong signal that a bearish bias may be warranted.
Mixed signals are emerging from momentum indicators, with MACD pushing higher while RSI (14) sits in a minor downtrend, though it’s threatening to shift higher.
Upcoming economic data screens as important for small-cap US stocks given their cyclical characteristics and reliance on capital markets for funding.
Good luck
DS
How This 3 Step System Works In A ReversalThe power of a reversal is something
you will see inside this video
In this video you will
see the reverse pattern
combination with the rocket booster strategy
to show you how to trade Forex
Not to mention that the Fed interest rate
decision did influence the
prices of some assets in the
stock market
In this case we are looking at CAPITALCOM:GBPUSD
This video will educate you and show you
how to trade Forex using a reversal pattern
Rocket boost this content to learn more
Disclaimer: Trading is risky please learn risk
management and profit taking strategies
Also feel free to use a simulation trading account
before you trade with real money
NVDA | Distribution Pattern to $97Follow up to the rising wedge pattern
After seeing price bounce off of trendline support 4 times then to finally breakout we could see the next moves sell off towards the discount zone
To add more confluence to this setup we're looking at the difference between price and indication and it's signaling a selloff based on divergence and the medium blue signal re-entering the 80/20 channel forecast bearish momentum stepping into play
I'm eyeing targets around $97 and the possibility of seeing movement back towards major resistance ($152) to re-confirm price structure for any further selling beyond $97
Stay posted for any major updates on price action.
Mega cap earnings watchMega cap earnings get started today. Here's a comparison chart of META, TSLA, MSFT, AAPL, GOOG & AMZN. With the ticker Tracker MFI oscillator on the 1 day ext chart 3 month view. Below is the list of dates and times of their earnings release.
META 1/29 4:05pm
Consensus
EPS = 6.68
Revenue = 46.98 B
TSLA 1/29 4:05pm
Consensus
EPS = .75
Revenue = 27.61 B
MSFT 1/29 4:05pm
Consensus
EPS = 3.11
Revenue = 68.75 B
AAPL 1/30 4:30pm
Consensus
EPS = 2.36
Revenue = 124.1 B
GOOG 2/4 4:05pm
Consensus
EPS = 2.12
Revenue = 81.38 B
AMZN 2/6 4pm
Consensus
EPS = 1.52
Revenue = 187.13 B
Quartly EU Targets $0.88FX:EURUSD
The last Quarter of 2024 closed Bearish Engulfing.
This was a reaction off the 'qrtE' (Push Zone). A Re-Test of the previous Pull Back, which also resulted in a Double Top with Bearish Divergence.
A Bullish reaction off the Bear 'yr^' level is very probable, however, probably short lived, given that the 3rd Qrt of 2022 violated the level and the subsequent Qrt's Engulfing reaction only printed a Higher Low.
Can PLTR Press to All Time Highs??? and breakout this time?PLTR just signaled on the hour utilizing the King Trading Momentum Strategy. This one from a technical standpoint, looks like an inverse head and shoulders and as much as MM's keep trying to sell it, it keeps bouncing back. A full measure move takes this one back to the neckline where it can balance and fail or breakout. This aligns well with the take-profit of 6% and a stop-loss of 3.5%.
The King Trading Momentum Strategy combines the 5 EMA crossing above the 13 EMA, RSI strength, favorable momentum as measured by ADX plus evaluating recent volume changes and even something that measures breakout momentum called Beta for this one! PLTR and over 100 equities are built into this script with optimal backtest take profits and stop losses and can be toggled on by simply checking a box (default they are turned off). This week even with the crazy DEEPSEEK Monday selloff, the algo has 6 winners and 3 losers! Hopefully this is the next winner!
Uptrend in Regions Financial?Regions Financial leaped to new record highs after Donald Trump was reelected as U.S. President. Now, following a pullback, some traders may think its uptrend remains in effect.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the price range between $23 and $24. RF tested and held the bottom of this channel in the second half of December and again in the first half of January. The stock leaped above $24 on January 15 and has remained there since. Has old resistance become new support?
Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is above the 100-day SMA. Both are above the 200-day SMA. That may reflect a longer-term bullish trend.
Next, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is above the 21-day EMA. MACD is also rising. Both of those signals may indicate bulls are taking charge over the shorter term.
Finally, the current price area is near previous highs from 2022 and 2023. Further gains from here could be viewed as a long-term breakout.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NZDUSD GARTLEYHarmonic Pattern Trading Strategy:
1. Combine patterns with 2-3 confirmations (e.g., MA, BB, RSI, Stoch) for increased accuracy.
2. Implement proper risk management.
3. Limit exposure to 3% of capital per trade.
4. Exercise caution: Not every Harmonic Pattern presents a good trading opportunity.
5. Conduct thorough diligence and analysis before trading.
Disciplined approach = Enhanced edge.
The 3 Step Risk Managment Booster StrategyThis is important for you to digest the power of risk management
is very important for you to understand
this next strategy
I called it "the risk management booster strategy"
is not easy because it will force you
to trade with discipline
Its very popular to just jump the gun in trading
and enter the market order
so what is the risk management booster strategy?
only use the following:
-Stop orders
-limit orders
-Pivot Points Indicator for entry
This 3 step risk management system will
help you trade with the discipline that you need
in the financial markets
to learn more rocket boost this content
look at the chart of Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA
based on this strategy
you can see the place to place a buy order.
trade safe.
Disclaimer: Trading is risky please learn risk management
and profit-taking strategies
Also feel free to use a simulation trading account.
USD/CHF | Bearish Season IncomingHigher timeframes (3-Day+) are at a nice resistance zone to see short plays only as we head into the next season
We got a ~600 pip swing but first I'd like to see maybe one more long position back to the main resistance zone for a high sell entry up top and then scaling in as price falls after more confirmation and price development
Trend Reader is looking nice too as its in the overbought zone signaling a bearish play to come with clear divergence
The blue EMA at around 150-Days also acts as good dynamic Support/Resistance to help confirm that flipside once price looks to break below with a rejected pullback.
Need a Vacation with OOTO?This one just fired and vacation stocks likely don't care about semi-conductors. Who knows, maybe they even benefit from cheaper AI on a laptop computer!
This bull flag if it breaks out has a 7% profit target based on Fib Extension, with the algo backtest saying 5% take-profit and a 3.5% stop loss. If it hits 5%, I will go ahead and protect by selling half and then set trailer for 1.75% on remainder, with the intention of selling on the way up to 7%! But for now, I will just be happy if momentum continues to the upside!
The King Trading Momentum Strategy combines the 5 EMA crossing above the 13 EMA, RSI strength, favorable momentum as measured by ADX plus evaluating recent volume changes and even something that measures breakout momentum called Beta for this one! OOTO and over 100 equities are built into this script with optimal backtest take profits and stop losses and can be toggled on by simply checking a box (default they are turned off).
XAUUSD PREDICTION MUST READ CAPTIONXAUUSD appears to be entering a bearish phase, with key resistance levels holding firm and selling pressure building up. Technical indicators suggest a potential continuation of the downward trend, signaling an opportunity for sellers to capitalize on the market’s weakness. Stay alert for further confirmations as the sell market gains momentum.
GBP/NZD - Reaching a weak resistance area , time for corectionHi guys , we are looking into GBP/NZD - it has had a very good uptrend the past few weeks, and it reached a very weak resistance area, which is giving us the indication that a correction is due.
Currently on 1H and 4H we reached high over-bought area with close to 0 support to remain at this price.
Entry: 2.19630
Target 1: 2.19100
Target 2: 2.18400
SL : 2.20200
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
what is the most effective indicator?There isn’t a single "most effective" trading indicator that works for everyone, as effectiveness depends on your trading style, strategy, and the market conditions. However, some indicators are considered more versatile or reliable when used correctly. Here's a breakdown to help you choose:
Most Effective for Trends:
Moving Averages (EMA or SMA):
Simple and effective for identifying trends.
Works well in trending markets but less reliable in sideways or choppy markets.
Pro Tip: Combine short-term and long-term moving averages for crossovers.
Ichimoku Cloud:
A comprehensive indicator that provides trend direction, support/resistance, and momentum.
Effective but requires practice to interpret correctly.
Most Effective for Overbought/Oversold Levels:
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
One of the most popular and effective indicators for spotting overbought or oversold conditions.
Works well in both trending and range-bound markets when combined with other tools.
Stochastic Oscillator:
Similar to RSI but includes %K and %D lines for crossovers.
Effective for momentum confirmation.
Most Effective for Volatility:
Bollinger Bands:
Great for identifying periods of high or low volatility and potential breakout zones.
Useful for sideways (range-bound) markets and trend reversals.
Average True Range (ATR):
Excellent for setting stop-loss levels and identifying market volatility trends.
Works well in conjunction with trend indicators.
Most Effective for Momentum:
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD):
Ideal for spotting trend reversals and momentum shifts.
Effective when used with a confirmation indicator like RSI.
Parabolic SAR:
Simple for identifying trend direction and potential exit points.
Works best in trending markets.
Combination for Higher Effectiveness:
Trend + Momentum: Combine EMA with MACD to identify trends and entry/exit points.
Overbought/Oversold + Volume: Use RSI with Volume Indicators (e.g., OBV) to confirm breakouts or reversals.
Volatility + Trend: Use Bollinger Bands with Ichimoku Cloud to spot breakout opportunities with clear trend guidance.