#Ripple Sleepy AlligatorExpecting XRPUSD upside breakout. My initial midterm targets are $1 then $1.2 XRP.
M-oscillator
Buy NOW think later!!
1. Moderna is extremely oversold and we’re starting to see a very reliable bottoming pattern; i.e. bullish divergence on the RSI. This exact setup was seen few months back (see chart) and that’s how I called the bottom back then.
2. Given all the news about bird flu, not only does it put a floor underneath this stock but makes it quite likely a major rally initiates VERY SOON.
3. I think MRNA is in a major ABC wave. The strong move down past 3-4 months was wave B and a wave C could start soon.
there’s an easy double if one buys at CMP
$SPY September 9, 2024AMEX:SPY September 9, 2024
15 Minutes.
AS expected, AMEX:SPY being under all moving averages in 15 minutes kept on making lows for 2 days.
Now if we consider the fall 551.58 to 539.44 then 544-546 is a good level to short.
I will but only above 565 at the moment.
If we take the rise from 510 to 564 AMEX:SPY has retraced 50% of the move. Now holding 530 is important as it is the 61.8% retracement for the move.
536 looks a good target now as it is also 100 averages in daily time frame.
The oscillator in 15 minutes is making lower low along with price.
200 averages in 15 minutes are around 553 levels.
So, at the moment downtrend in 15 minutes.
US30 - Daily Resistance / Bearish ContinuationFX:US30 reached the daily resistance level and was unable to continue the bullish price action. Price has formed bearish structure on 4 hr after forming bearish divergence on the chart. I am expecting the bearish trend to continue before price can trend higher.
Just a consolidation or a downtrend ? Since hitting an all time high in March, Bitcoin has been consolidating within a downtrend channel.
the Price is currently oscillating between the 23.60% ($60’000 area), currently acting as resistance, and the 38.20% ($51’500 area), currently acting as resistance.
The MACD is confirming that further downside potential appears technically viable, notwithstanding the expected interim rallies, until the price is able to break out of its down-trending channel.
Smart Money Positioned to SHORT Gold - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Gold (GC)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in GC if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Valuation: Overvalued vs Treasuries
Extreme Positioning: Commercials around max short of last 2 years = bearish.
True Seasonal: Seasonal down to October.
Supplementary Indicators: %R & Momentum (not yet confirmed)
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Smart Money Positioned to SHORT CAD - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Canadian Dollar (6C)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6C if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
OI Analysis: Upmove in price has seen Commercials aggressively move to the short side - bearish.
Valuation: Overvalued vs Treasuries
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency to go down to October.
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: %R
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Smart Money Positioned to SHORT JPY - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Japanese Yen (6J)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6B if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Valuation: Overvalued vs Gold & Treasuries
Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish.
OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish.
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency to go down to October.
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: %R & Momentum (not confirmed)
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
BULLISH CYPHER BTCUSD3 Bullish indicators for BTC
Bullish Cyper: All the retraces are valid for this pattern. The .786 retrace from X-D is perfectly aligned with an important support from history that was created in 2021. The X-B retrace is 100% clearly present there and the A-C retrace is almost just there.
Classic Bullish Divergence: Higher lows on the MACD and RSI oscillators and lower lows on the price validates this pattern. This perfectly aligns with the pivot of the Bullish Cypher and the historical support line.
Overall Context of the Structure: the context of the structure is reasonable. These pattern usually appear after a correction and it seems to be the case for BTC right now. It is also easy to set a stop loss because of that support line and everything under. If BTC falls below that support line, expecting further downside.
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Platinum - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Platinum (PL)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in PL if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries
Bullish Spread Divergence
Supplementary Indicators: Stochastic & %R
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Cotton - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Cotton (CT)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CT if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold
Extreme Positioning: Commercials around max long of last 3 years - bullish. Small specs around max short of last 3 years - bullish.
OI Analysis: "Bubble Up" of positioning happening between commercials and large specs = bullish.
COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal
Supplementary Indicators: UO & Momentum (not yet confirmed)
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Soybeans - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Soybeans (ZS)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in ZS if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. I note that I am already long as this market has been giving a buy signal for a few weeks.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials hovering around max long of last 3 years - bullish.
OI Analysis: "Bubble Up" in net positioning between commercials and large specs - bullish. Multi week down move has seen OI increase. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the increase in OI". When the OI increase is caused by Commercials adding to longs, it is bullish.
True Seasonal: Major seasonal low end of September and up to February.
COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, %R, UO, Stochastic & Confirmed Momentum Shift.
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Copper - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Copper (HG)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in HG if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy
Sentiment: Advisors very bearish is actually...bullish.
OI Analysis: Multi week down move has seen OI decrease drastically while Commercials have added to longs = bullish.
Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries
Bullish Spread Divergence
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist & %R
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
Smart Money Positioned to LONG RBOB - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
Long
(RBOB)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in RBif we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials max long of last 3 years - bullish. Small specs max short of last 3 years - bullish.
OI Analysis: Multi week down move has seen OI increase. When OI increases, we need to ask "who is causing the OI increase?". In this case, OI is increasing as Commercials add to long positioning, which is bullish.
ADX: Paunch forming (but not confirmed until ADX rollover). This is a significant "end of trend" indication.
Front Month Premium - bullish.
COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal
Supplementary Indicators: %R & Stochastic
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Crude Oil - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Crude Oil (CL)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
OI Analysis: Generally last few weeks OI has drifted lower while CM's adding to longs - bullish. CM's approaching extreme long positioning, but not quite there yet.
True Seasonal: True seasonal to go up until mid October - bullish.
COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal
Front Month Premium - Bullish
Supplementary Indicators: %R & Stochastic
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
Smart Money is Positioned to LONG Mexican Peso - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Mexican Peso (6M)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in 6M if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials most long they have been since March 2023 - bullish. Small Specs most short they have been since June 2020 = bearish.
OI Analysis: Very low OI. Generally, bottoms are associated with low OI (public and large specs are not interested in this market, while commercials heavily adding to longs is bullish)
Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries = bullish.
COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist , POIV, %R, Stochastic & Momentum (not yet confirmed)
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
ChanceSince June 2022 we are in an uptrend. Despite the steep correction since end of June it is unbroken. The correction still looks healthy and since May we can see a promising rising cloud.
This gives a chance that the bottom that has been built in August 2023 will hold again and we can start to resume the uptrend now again.
Sure,there are some obstacles due to the long lasting low range trading. And it may take some time to get momentum. But the chance is now and I am starting with a humble position that can easily be built up when the picture will become more convincing.
Declining Momentumhead of the expiring date the upward momentum is declining. A correction ma be expected. How large it will be has to be observed. After this long rise that lasted for almost 2 years even a major correction is possible.
BTC update 4HBitcoin CRYPTOCAP:BTC Update
This appears to be a similar RSI divergence failure as seen in the past. To invalidate this, BTC needs to cross $58,500 before the end of this week.
Golden Hunt with ICT Strategy: Perfect XAU/USD Analysis in the 1Hey everyone! Today, I’m excited to share a fascinating analysis of the XAU/USD pair in the 1-hour timeframe using the ICT strategy. I’ve added a free indicator to the chart that not only identifies swing points but also beautifully connects them with lines. This indicator even marks the days of the week, Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), and includes a 20-period EMA. It’s truly an amazing tool!
What’s more, it has features for displaying Kill Zones, sessions, and Silver Bullet, but I’ve turned those off for now to keep the focus on the essentials.
As you can see, Break of Structure (BOS) points are clearly marked, and I’ve highlighted the areas where the market structure has shifted. Notice how sometimes strong swing highs or lows are "hunted" by a shadow that pierces through, leading to a sharp bearish move afterward. The indicator highlights most of these hunts in red, helping us better anticipate market movements.
For entering trades, I used a simple tool to highlight green zones on the chart. I employed Fibonacci retracement levels of 61.8%, 70.5%, 79%, and 50% to pinpoint key entry areas. Additionally, using a custom method based on standard deviation, I marked potential future price zones with dotted lines.
In summary, this analysis combines advanced ICT techniques with practical tools to give you a clearer view of gold’s movements. I hope these insights help you achieve more successful trades! ✨
Will Bitcoin Repeat? A Theory!I really like using Heikin-Ashi candles, the MACD, and Stochastic RSI to try to find potential tops or bottoms. This can be done on any time frame, but remember: the lower the time frame, the smaller the impact, and vice versa. I used this approach to almost call the bottom in October 2022 and early 2023 (You'll find a Post on that on my X Account)
Theory:
The current market behavior seems eerily similar to the last bull run. During that time, after Bitcoin hit its first "top," it then sharply corrected by about 50%. Bitcoin has already had a 30% correction at the moment, but it may fall another 20%, meaning a price of about $34,000.
Following that correction, in the last bull market, Bitcoin received a strong push to the upside, having roughly 135% growth that, in the end, marked the cycle top. If Bitcoin corrects to $34,000 now and repeats the move, a 135% rise would place it at about $79,000.
When looking at the MACD during the previous bull market, after the first sell off, the averages began to squeeze before taking the final bearish cross. In this process, the Stochastic RSI deep-cooled off, which helped it gather strength for one last push to the upside.
Again, that's only a theory, but it's something worth keeping a close watch on. Nothing is guaranteed.
DOGS long setup / Bulls or Bears, Tell me in CommentsBINANCE:DOGSUSDT
GATEIO:DOGSUSDT
Hello Traders
💥Long position on DOGS
SL1 ---> Low-risk status: 3x-4x Leverage
SL2 ---> Mid-risk status: 5x-8x Leverage
👾The setup is active but expect the uncertain phase as well.
➡️Entry Area:
Yellow zone
⚡️TP:
0.001097
0.001125
0.001158
0.001190
0.001221
0.001263
🔴SL:
0.00100
🧐The Alternate scenario:
If the price stabilizes below the trigger zone, the setup will be cancelled.
JPN225 Drops Back to Correction TerritoryThe benchmark Japanese index experienced a steep decline after the central bank stepped up is tightening efforts at the start of the month, but was able to cover the losses as investors calmed down.
However, the BoJ is likely to raise rates again and along with the Yen’s rebound, JPN225 could face sustained headwinds. The index loses ground this week and falls back to contraction territory, as Nvidia’s slump amidst broader tech fears, spills over to Japan. Key Japanese chip manufacturing equipment companies and major Nikkei constituents like Tokyo Electron and Advantest suffered heavy losses. JPN225 is now exposed to the 38.2% Fibonacci of its recent rebound, which bring back the risk of a near market.
On the other hand the RSI points to oversold conditions, while the stock market’s strength goes beyond monetary policy and weak Yen. Above the 38.2% Fibonacci, JPN225 can push for higher highs (39,204), although sustained advance has a higher degree of difficulty under current conditions.
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Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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Losses can exceed deposits.
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