BTCUSD BullishDo you think it would be possible to finish this bullrun in December of this year?
Fibonacci circles
Trends
RSI
Pi cicle Top
M-oscillator
How to use Implied Volatility Index to analyze Bitcoin▮ Introduction
Bitcoin is known for its price volatility. Analyzing the price chart alone is often not enough to make buy and sell decisions.
Implied volatility indexes such as DERIBIT:DVOL and VOLMEX:BVIV can complement traditional technical analysis by providing insights into market sentiment and expectations.
▮ Understanding DVOL/BVIV
DVOL and BVIV measure the expected implied volatility of Bitcoin over the next 30 days, derived from real-time call and put options.
DVOL is calculated by Deribit, the world's largest Bitcoin and Ether options exchange.
BVIV is calculated by Volmex Finance; the data is extracted from exchanges (currently Deribit and OKX), and then combined into a single set.
* In addition to Bitcoin, it is possible to analyze Ethereum-specific instruments through the ticks DERIBIT:ETHDVOL and VOLMEX:EVIV, whose line of reasoning is the same.
▮ Interpreting the chart
🔶 High DVOL/BVIV values indicate that the market expects greater volatility in the next 30 days. This is usually associated with uncertainty, fear, or expected major events.
🔶 The index does not indicate the direction of the price, but rather whether volatility will increase or decrease.
🔶 Low values indicate an expectation of lower volatility and are usually associated with calmer and more optimistic markets.
🔶 To get an idea of the expected daily movement of Bitcoin, simply divide the DVOL value by 20. For example, a DVOL of 100 indicates an expected daily movement of 5%.
🔶 Divergences between the price of Bitcoin and DVOL/BVIV can signal inflection points.
🔶 Price rising with a drop in DVOL/BVIV may indicate exhaustion and a potential top.
🔶 Price falling with a drop in DVOL/BVIV may indicate exhaustion and a potential bottom.
▮ Example
The price of BTC here is at the top in white.
The DVOL and the RSI of DVOL are both in red.
The reason I put the RSI here is that it is easier to analyze DVOL, since the values are in a fixed range, therefore easier to interpret.
On March 25, 2022, the RSI shows a contracted value of 30, that is, low implied volatility. This foreshadows a period of calm that precedes a period of agitation.
In this case, the “agitation” soon materializes in a period of price decline.
When the RSI then reaches the upper limit range, at 83 (on May 12, 2022), a peak in volatility is characterized.
Then, after that, it begins to decrease. This decrease in volatility in DVOL corroborates the moment of Bitcoin’s lateralization within the orange box.
▮ Conclusion
Although DVOL and BVIV should not be used in isolation, they can be valuable tools for confirming price chart signals and anticipating major movements.
Incorporating implied volatility analysis into your strategy, can improve the timing of entries/exits and help manage risk.
⚠️ But remember:
Just because a strategy worked in the past does not mean it will work forever.
Past profitability is no guarantee of future profitability.
Do your own analysis and risk management.
Bitcoin’s Bullish Reversal: This Chart Pattern Can Send BTC HighHere's where I see Bitcoin going next.
As the US elections and the FED rate cuts come closer, the macro conditions are getting ready for a Bitcoin breakout.
Here's the explanation for the TA:
Descending Channel: Bitcoin has been trading within a downward channel. However, there's potential for a bullish breakout if the price moves above the channel's upper resistance, which is around $65k.
Key Support at GETTEX:52K -$53K: This level has provided strong support, preventing further declines.
Rounded Bottom: The price action is forming a rounded bottom pattern, a bullish reversal signal, suggesting that the downtrend might be coming to an end.
RSI Indicator: The RSI around 49.85 indicates a neutral momentum, but the upward movement suggests a possible shift towards a bullish trend.
If Bitcoin breaks out of the descending channel and holds above $53K, it will trigger a significant upward move, and perhaps the start of a new bull run.
SMH shows signs of weakness for first time SMH rally is showing weakness in multiple places for first time.
EMA crosses below SMA for first time since rally started
RSI shows signs of price divergence by trending down while price makes higher highs.
This is more cautionary at this point and keep in mind. I wouldn't add to any bullish positions but instead tighten stop losses and seek to start taking some profits.
EURUSD 4H Retest on the Big triangle from DailyEURUSD 4H
On this 4H chart we look closer in the current situation. There are a few things to take in consideration:
The market structure on EURUSD has changed from Bearish to Bullish with the latest up swing. This transition is indicated from the blue lines and the orange lines
The price is forming a double divergence on the MACD and the RSI. This suggests that the price can correct to the previous MH point of the bullish structure which aligns with the resistance of the triangle (now a support for the price)
Once the price potentially corrects to that level, it will be important to monitor close in order to determine if this is a retest or a false breakout and get an idea how to trade it
Expedia Could Be Traveling NorthExpedia has gone nowhere for most of the year, but some traders may think the travel stock has begun a northward journey.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the bullish price gap on August 9 after earnings and revenue beat estimates. EXPE has made successively higher lows every session since then, which may indicate that buyers are in control.
Second, prices are near the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The stock is also negative on the year (notice its high from early February). Could that longer-term lethargy create opportunity for shorter-term bulls – especially after a strong quarterly report?
Third, there could be reason to think it’s happening: Notice how MACD has turned positive and the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) crossed above the 21-day EMA.
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Voxies (VOXEL)On the above 6-day chart price action has corrected by 95% since January 2022. Today is great long opportunity. Why?
1) RSI and price action resistance breakouts.
2) Multiple oscillators print bullish divergence across a 4-6 month period, very powerful.
3) Seller weakness. Notice the long candle wicks into seller territory? This is especially true on the BTC pair.
4) Price action prints support on past resistance since breakout. Look left.
Is it possible price action falls further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=6% of portfolio
Timeframe: Now, don’t sit on your hands.
Return: No idea
AUDNZD - Bullish ContinuationFX:AUDNZD is in a bullish 4 hr trend after breaking recent LH and establishing higher highs and higher lows. I am expecting a bullish continuation on this pair!
Deep dive into Awesome OscillatorsHello, Skyrexians!
We continue our series of educational content. Today it's time to consider the Awesome Oscillator, the indicator introduced by Bill Williams in his book "Trading Chaos". It can be very useful in your crypto trading. A lot of crypto trading strategies use this indicator. You can combine it with other indicators to create your crypto trading algorithm, trading bot or manual cryptocurrency trading strategy. Most of top crypto traders and top crypto trading platforms use it in their automated crypto trading. If you will be aware you to trade using Awesome Oscillator will be able to enhance your automated trading bot, manual trading strategy or setup grid trading bot more effectively. We think there is enough arguments to learn how to use this indicator. Let's start our deep dive!
What is Awesome Oscillator?
The Awesome Oscillator (AO) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis to measure the strength and direction of a market trend. It was created by Bill Williams and is designed to help traders identify potential reversals or trend continuations.
Key Features of the Awesome Oscillator:
Momentum Measurement: The AO measures the difference between a short-term moving average and a long-term moving average, using midpoints of each candlestick rather than closing prices. This provides insights into the market's momentum.
Histogram Representation: The indicator is typically displayed as a histogram, with bars oscillating above and below a zero line. Green bars represent increasing momentum (bullish), while red bars indicate decreasing momentum (bearish).
The Awesome Oscillator is calculated using simple moving average(SMA) as follows:
AO = SMA(5-period) − SMA(34-period)
Now let's consider the signals which can be produced by Awesome Oscillator with the examples.
$SPY August 19, 2024AMEX:SPY August 19, 2024
15 Minutes.
Friday AMEX:SPY was struggling around 55 levels as expected.
All moving averages are little far off for 15 minutes chart.
Hence, I expect sideways until this is sorted out.
Considering 2 rises
From 531.76 to 555.01
From 548.88 to 555.01
AMEX:SPY in uptrend for the day holding 551 levels.
And if breaks 551 levels i have 548-549 as target being 100 averages approximately.
540 is the important levels now to hold to continue this current uptrend as of now.
We have clearly oscillator divergence and hence i expect a pull back.
Second Chance Shorting Opportunity on EURUSDIf you’re looking for a second chance to short EURUSD, there’s a promising setup involving a Type 2 Bearish Shark Pattern with RSI Divergence. Let’s break it down.
Current Overview:
- Type 2 Bearish Shark Pattern:
- What It Means: The first target has already been achieved. This provides clarity on the first target but might reduce participation since the initial group of traders who profited may not re-engage.
- RSI Divergence:
- Signal: This divergence adds another layer of confirmation, especially for traders who rely on resistance and RSI divergence as their entry signals.
Strategy:
- Second Chance Entry: This setup offers a second opportunity to short EURUSD, with the RSI divergence potentially attracting a new wave of traders.
- Profit Factor: The strong profit factor in this trade is what drew me in, despite the potential for reduced participation from the initial group of sellers.
Final Thoughts:
While there might be fewer sellers this time around, the RSI divergence could bring in new participants, making this a solid second chance trade. Always keep an eye on your signals and manage your risk effectively.
What’s your take on this setup? Are you planning to jump in, or do you see other opportunities? Share your thoughts and strategies below!
Happy trading, everyone! 🚀
AUDUSD - Bullish Continuation / Fib EntryFX:AUDUSD is showing signs of a bullish continuation after rebounding from a significant support zone and continuing the higher highs and higher lows rally. A pullback to the buy zone offers a favorable risk-reward ratio for a long position. Traders should consider entering within the highlighted buy zone, with a stop loss set below 0.65604 anticipating continuation of the bullish momentum!
AUDCAD - Retracement for Bullish ContinuationFX:AUDCAD is moving upwards, creating higher highs and higher lows after breaking above the descending trend line supported by a previous resistance-turned-support level suggesting that the sellers may be losing control and buyers are gaining momentum!
Current price action poses a potential buying opportunity after a pullback into the “Buy Zone". The strategy is to enter a long position within this zone, with a stop loss placed below the defined support, aiming for a continuation of the newly established uptrend.
BTC Ramped Move to $96KWith wars raging in the middle and eastern Europe, Governments are constantly devaluing their civilians' purchasing power. The King of Crypto, with gold, seems to be a place of refuge from the increasing inflation.
We have seen a sideways acclamation over the past 144 days, with a stop run below 52,500 handle to shake out the weak hands. Price rejected these prices and moved strongly back into the range. I believe this to be a wave 4 move, with wave about the develop.
The RSI holding above 40 which is the bottom of a bullish trend. 144 days is significant timing for those Gann traders. My target is 96K calculated using fib extension and confirmed by Gann square of nine.
The CBIdx indicator is holding above 40 with a small bullish divergence appearing. We Should see ramped movement to the upside in the coming week.
FLOKIUSDT See The ResultAs you can see in the chart, the price after the correct break of the trend line; A few bullish candles are formed, which I have now confirmed with my own eyes.
Comvita inverted hammer monthly chartFurther to earlier post, close up showing the inverted hammer outside of the bollinger bands
Comvita Monthly Buy ZoneBuying into Comvita
Monthly chart going back decades
Has multiple reasons to buy technically, and is selling far below book value, has low debt to equity and current ratio of 5.54 so assets far outweigh liabilities
Low dividend, but this is really a long term capital gains play say 5 years should be up to at least $5-$6
Rakon NZ long term buying level approachingRakon Monthly chart
I'm currently looking at long term investments to hold for years, and noticed this one
Current price is $0.80, but I think it could easily fall to $0.41c
Downside $0.42c
Dividend ~ ~5% at that price level
Potential capital gain, 300% gain is pretty easy to get to $1.20, the all time high was $5.80
Could easily hold for a couple of years sell half and make 100%+ on your original money and still own some shares
The upside with volatile stocks like this is that there are very few real support or resistance levels on the chart i.e. big bars... these can easily get blown through both ways as there are no major order pools there that take time to fill
See what happens but its on my watchlist with price alerts set
Important close for USD/JPY as bullish signals emerge Friday’s close looms as particularly important for USD/JPY with a break back above the Jan 2023 uptrend setting the platform for potential further upside next week. As things stand, another leg higher will fulfill the criteria to meet a morning star pattern on the weekly timeframe, adding to the case for setting longs with bearish momentum also starting to ebb.
A close around these levels would create a decent bullish setup, allowing for traders to buy the break with a stop below the former trendline for protection. As for topside targets, 150.90 and 151.95 loom as viable options.
From a fundamental perspective, USD/JPY has a rolling daily correlation with US two-year bond yields of 0.97 over the past month, implying the two variables are basically moving in lockstep. With little US data on the calendar next week to shift sentiment on the economy, that provides room for recent moves to extend further in the days ahead.
The biggest risk to the setup would be a major escalation in tensions in the Middle East or unlikely extreme dovish shift from Fed policymakers at the Jackson Hole economic symposium next week.
DS
SMH rallies to new highs with room to goSMH rallied to new highs today and into higher trading area which originally appeared to be very overbought
1 hour interval shows both 10 and 20 RSI levels in overbought territory
2 hour interval shows 20 RSI having more room to grow.
initially exited riskiest positions figuring on this new high being way outside the bounds of normal
This is now looking to have some more room left in it.
expect a small pullback or pullback in time over the next day or two.
US small cap bounce unconvincing despite risk revival The recovery in US small caps has been unconvincing over the past fortnight, struggling for upside unlike mega-cap rivals. Russell 2000 futures have been capped below the 50-day moving average for much of this period, running into sellers constantly above this level. Wednesday’s rejection above 2132.6 warns of building reversal risk, putting a potential break of uptrend support on the cards should US slowdown fears return.
If the price were to break the uptrend, traders could enter shorts with a tight stop either above the level or the 50-day moving average for protection, depending on your target. On that subject, the 200-day moving average or 1920 are levels to consider. If the price were to hold the uptrend, a close above the 50-day moving average would negate the bearish setup.
MACD and RSI continue to generate bearish signals on momentum, making selling rallies the preferred strategy near-term. Good luck!
DS
KMD NZ Buying long term positionMonthly chart
Buying long term position trade for a set and forget position
Currently at
- 16% forward dividend
- Large monthly AB=CD pattern
- Monthly oversold RSI
These 3 reasons alone are enough for me to get in....
Retail is doing it tough and there are going to have to be some restructuring taking place, but it is a good brand that makes good products and I know it very well and have some of their clothes in my wardrobe
Pi Network Predictionthis prediction uses indicator of support and resistance trendlines as well as the support and demand area
