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M-oscillator

NZD/USD looking bullish before RBNZ rate decisionNZD/USD has reversed the downside break sparked by US recession fears, smashing through the downtrend it had been trading in since early June on Tuesday. With RSI and MACD providing bullish signals on momentum, risks are skewing towards further gains ahead of today’s RBNZ interest rate decision. While economists are evenly split on whether the bank will cut rates by 25 basis point, I’m with market pricing that marginally favours a reduction in the cash rate to 5.25%. If that eventuates, we could see the Kiwi pull back initially. However, it will be the rate track path from the RBNZ that will likely drive direction beyond the actual decision, providing clues as to how fast and much the RBNZ expects it will have to cut rates this cycle. Whatever that indicates, NZD/USD finds itself back at the 50-day moving average, a level it has often respected over the course of this year. That creates a great setup opportunity depending on how the Kiwi performs post RBNZ. Buy a break above the level with a stop below for protection, targeting a push towards .6150. Alternatively, if the price can’t break or hold above the 50DMA, sell below the level with a stop above for protection. .6050 would be one target with .5985 after that. Good luck! DS
by FOREXcom
S&P 500 Attempt to Test Previous HighThe Monthly S&P is overbought and at a 9 TD Sequential Sell signal, that is why the market pulled back. The Daily after the pullback has found buyers at previous breakout resistance turned support (Change of Polarity). The Weekly has relieved the overbought condition and I believe this is the point where bulls will see if they can continue the bull market. On the Daily chart I show something like a 5-8% profit potential to the next Falling Window resistance area and high. The Daily TD Sequential has a green 2>1 allowing for a new long position. This is happening on a breakout of the Falling Window resistance. The 39 minute chart (10 Daily candles on U.S. stock market) shows a close above EMA 200 followed by the previous candle closing above the Window resistance. You can use this to open a new long position with a stop loss below the low of the window.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by zerocashcool
VIX: Lower High to complete Equity CorrectionYes. Volatility spiked HUGELY! Check this out. I bet we have one more spike, but not as high, while Equities bottom, FOR NOW. Vix is interesting, because it goes crazy on the middle of the down moves in equities, but when they eventually bottom, as traders realize everything is fine, it doesn't go as high, hence my Primary ((C)) label off high. Maybe, Monday week after next, Aug 19. Meaning, "Rally Friday" might have been a great time to buy some Vixy, Uvxy, or UVIX, OR SQQQ if you can hold for 10 days...Could be double money. The signal to sell will be a spike in MACD, as shown in the picture below. Price goes not as high on MORE strength...that is hidden bearish divergence, and it should sell off quick, as soon as that oscillator surpasses its last high, assuming Vix price stays in the 35-45 region and not higher than 65. I will be targeting about 38. It could push to 40, but 35 is average in high volatility, 15 under low volatility.
CBOE:VIXLong
by CuzDelux
5
SPY - RSI Failure Swing and Gold New ATH BreakoutThis trade idea is already a missed opportunity but the analysis of what transpired may be useful for future reference. This was a -8.38% move from a close that constituted a sell signal according to RSI failure swing theory on the daily chart. The drawdown would have been .46% if a short trade was entered at the close of Wed July 17th when the signal was given. That sell level was also successfully defended 4 days later. It coincided with the 9-day SMA at that time. Also worth noting: Gold broke out to a new ATH the day prior, which in hindsight, amongst the backdrop of great, unretraced gains in gold over the past 5 months, was a bellwether for increasing risk asset fear. SPY put in a new ATH that same day, but not with the same level of conviction. It had a smaller % gain, and it wasn't a breakout but a continuation of a series of new ATH days. Main takeaway: Watch the daily RSI for failure swings in overbought territory to spot trend changes before they happen.
AMEX:SPY
by Skipper86
SMH breaks through key resistanceSMH breaks through key resistance giving a hint that downward trend could be coming to a close for the near term. RSI continues to rise during recent rally which is a bullish sign Flash crash we experienced on Fri-Mon tends to cause rallies which we have experienced thus far potential breakout we are currently seeing could just be false breakout before retreating back into downward trend. We should wait for pullback to resistance line and bounce upward to help confirm if this breakout will continue Any trades made now should be done cautiously and in small amounts, the market could go in either direction. Trades made now, should not be added onto until we have more confidence of the overall direction.
NASDAQ:SMH
by ratchet-mint
GBP/USD Key Points Tuesday’s UK Construction PMI came in above expectations at 55.3, the highest reading in more than two years Time will tell whether traders are overly optimistic that the BOE will be able to cut rates relatively slower than its major rivals or whether more rate cuts still need to be discounted GBP/USD’s bias remains to the downside and traders may look to sell this rally as long as rates remain below 1.2760 and the RSI holds below the 50 level. In an eerily quiet week for UK economic data, GBP/USD has been taking its signal from developments elsewhere and general risk trends. The only notable data release this week was Tuesday’s Construction PMI, which came in above expectations at 55.3, the highest reading in more than two years. Despite the strong reading (admittedly on a second- if not third-tier economic indicator), sterling has struggled to get into gear this week. Outside of the Swiss franc, the British pound is the weakest major currency since Sunday’s open. This weakness has emerged despite the BOE being one of the least dovish major central banks looking forward. According to Bloomberg data, OIS traders are pricing in just 44bps of interest rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, or a bit below two 25bps rate cuts, compared to roughly 100bps (four 25bps rate cuts) and 68bps (almost three 25bps rate cuts) for the Fed and ECB respectively. Time will tell whether traders are overly optimistic that the BOE will be able to cut rates relatively slower than its major rivals or whether more rate cuts still need to be discounted, potentially keeping GBP/USD under pressure. British Pound Technical Analysis – GBP/USD 4-Hour Chart Turning our attention to the chart, GBP/USD remains in its 4-week bearish channel, despite the big rally during the first half of today’s US session. One tool that traders can use to help handicap when a trend may break is the RSI indicator. In this case, the 14-period RSI on GBP/USD’s 4-hour chart has been stuck in a well-defined range between 30-50 since shortly after the bearish channel formed, signaling consistent, but not excessive, bearish momentum. Accordingly, bulls may want to watch to see if the RSI can break above the 50 level to either foreshadow or confirm a breakout in the exchange rate itself. For now though, the bias remains to the downside and traders may look to sell this rally as long as rates remain below 1.2760 and the RSI holds below the 50 level. -- Written by Matt Weller
Short
by WHSelfInvest
Long Term Silver Stacking Zone $20 to $15These line up with probable liquidity hunting zones on the monthly chart to fill in low volume notches on the volume profile and using fork extensions to estimate timing. The bottom end of the zone is less likely around $15 because the point of control is at $16.5 and would probably tend to soak up price tests through it. But the trade idea is still valid even if the POC doesn't provide support. The volume profile has a double distribution meaning disagreement among traders on this time frame. An exit point might be at $23 which is the next developing POC but if I stack some silver below $20 I will probably hold it for something more like $40 since silver has a tendency to produce short squeezes and shoot to the moon for a short burst and then collapse. Also holding physical silver (probably 10 oz bars) is a nice way to get a warm and fuzzy feeling of financial security so having a bit on hand is not a bad idea.
COMEX:SI1!
by mljones
LL/LH. Resistance at 70K, support at 50KBitcoin reached its peak at 70K, and since then it broke the trend and it has been doing a series of Lower Lows / Lower Highs, the pattern is corrective rather than bearish. We still have a support at 50K, which is critical if this is meant to hold and at least trade in the range. If this support is broken, basically it's the end of the bull chapter until the next time. This chart depicts Bitcoin in the Weekly time frame, which is the big picture. The momentum has already entered a negative territory. and it is not good for the bull case. The rally we saw recently is in tandem with the rally in the SP:SPX , a relief rally, also known as a "Dead Cat Bounce". Once this is exhausted it could resume its leg to the bear territory. I wouldn't open a bull position here, in this time frame, unless I see the support is confirmed and the momentum reverts to the bull side. The important levels to watch : 50K, 60K, 70K. Trade and Trade Well !
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Madrid
Lumen Technologies - Bullish divergenceOn the above 12 day chart price action has corrected over 90% since early 2022. Now is an excellent moment for a long position. Why? 1) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts. 2) Regular bullish divergence. 3) Support on past resistance. See 2 month chart below. Is it possible price action drops further? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww Type: trade Risk: 6% or less Timeframe for long: This month Return: Not got a clue 2.month
NYSE:LUMNLong
by without_worries
20
An ADX Tip. :)Hello traders! I'm back from a few years away and found a little nugget on ADX in my trading notes which I wanted to share with you. As you may know I have focused the majority of my attention on candlestick analysis using Steve Nison training material. In one of his courses I have written down this quote by a significant trader he talks about sometimes, " Some of the best buy signals are found when ADX is below 15 and begins to rise. " - Chuck Lebeau Having seen that quote I brought up TradingView and found the most recent occurrence of that happening on the asset I was analyzing on the Weekly chart and look what I found: Steve Nison teaches a strategy called "Trading the 9" which involves the 9, 20, & 50 period moving averages. Look, there was a Golden Cross of all of them exactly when ADX crossed above 15! Outstanding! Maybe look at adding an alert on the assets you watch for ADX crossing above 15! :)
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by zerocashcool
Why I Think EURUSD Will Sell This Week...Technical AnalysisHey Rich Friends, I hope all is well and you are having a profitable trading month so far. If you are on a trading journey, keep going until you get the results you want. This is only my technical analysis of EURUSD so please cross reference the indicators you have on your charts and check the news. I think EU will continue to sell this week and this is why: - The candles have already rejected the previous the supply zone and formed a lower high - The larger EMA (purple) has crossed below the smaller EMA (blue) on 4H. This is a strong bearish confirmation for me - The Stochastic has crossed below 80, the slow line (orange) is above the fast line (blue) and both lines are facing down. This is a strong bearish confirmation for me - Structure has been broken on the downside with the current candle - There is a gap that must be filled I entered this trade at market execution with my SL at a previous high and my TPs at previous lows. Greak luck if you decide to take this idea and happy trading. Peace and Profits, Cha
Short
by MoneyMantraCha
15 Minutes.AMEX:SPY Aug 6, 2024 15 Minutes. AMEX:SPY managed to hold above 505 yesterday. We take 3 numbers The fall 554.86 to 510.28 The fall 533.17 to 510.28 The fall 523.58 to 514.9 For the first fall AMEX:SPY made lL but oscillator also LL. Hence sell on rise probably until 538 is crossed. For the second fall AMEX:SPY even with gap doen yesterday AMEX:SPY managed to retrace 61.8% arounf 523.5 levels. Hence 510 should provide a good support today. For the third set from 523.58 to 514.90 a retracement to 521 levels will give a change to short as it is also 50 averages. On upside if 524 is crossed and we get a good close being near top of bar then 530-532 should be a target to aim as it will be approximately 100 200 averages number. So, for the day i will go long above 524 and short 521 levels.
AMEX:SPY
by RiderTrader