S&P 500 Targets: Continuation of Record-Breaking Gains Amid MacrTechnical Analysis
The S&P 500 cash index, depicted on its daily chart, has extended its record-breaking trajectory by decisively breaching the prior resistance level of 6,031.24. This movement has prolonged the established bullish trend, guiding prices towards a critical resistance level at 6,110.21, corresponding with the 141.40% Fibonacci extension. A continuation of this bullish momentum could see buyers break through this resistance, subsequently targeting higher levels at 6,149.12 and eventually 6,221.99.
Conversely, should sellers regain momentum, initially targeting the key support level at 5,840.49, a confirmed breakdown below this support would signal a potential shift in sentiment.
Key Events to Watch
The weekly jobless claims and U.S. trade balance reports are expected to provide further insights into the resilience of the economy. In addition, all eyes are on the non-farm payrolls report due on Friday, which will be instrumental in assessing the extent to which robust corporate growth has translated into labor market strength.
M-oscillator
US 100 Trade LogUS 100 Buy SIgnals
Two potential long opportunities have been identified, but caution is advised due to the possibility of stop runs. The market could easily disrupt both trades, so this requires close observation and adherence to the system. Discretionary judgment will play a role here, but the focus remains on structured analysis.
Trade Setup :
1. Entry Zones : Buy within the 1H Fair Value Gap (FVG) or the 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG).
2. Risk Parameters :
- First Position: 0.5% risk
- Second Position: 1% risk
3. Stop-Loss Size : Fixed at 90 points for both trades.
4. Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) : 1:2 for both positions.
5. Caution : Be wary of potential stop hunts in these volatile zones. Monitor closely for signs of market manipulation or sudden reversals.
I am also weary of the strong divergences on both the MACD and the CVD. So be careful with risk assessment today.
The #1 Explaination Of What Short Selling IsYesterday was more like a movie as
I began to reflect on the days when I did
not understand capital markets
-
The time I would have given up on myself
and not known the power of understanding how
to trade the capital markets.
Sadly the capital markets are very
hard to understand but with a lot
of patience, you will know them
Today I want to show you how
to short sell.
And to show you that
You don't need to fear short-selling
its just that I prefer to accumulate
not distribute
If you are a beginner you may not
understand this
but as a trader, you have to choose
One side...think of short sellers
like the away team, and long buyers
as the home team
In order to play the capital markets you
have to choose your team
and stick to it
Because this will
give you a better understanding of the
capital markets
Now look at this price action
the price is overbought
meaning there are a lot
Of sellers, because the stock
of the product is too much
hence they have to sell at
a discount price.
Because of this, the buyer is forced
to buy insurance on his losses
to cover the cost of inventory
does this make sense?
You are selling insurance to the buyer
so that he can cover his cost
to buy more inventory
inventory is an expense
so the buyer is not making a
cash profit on this trade
instead, he is making a loss
with the plan to sell the inventory
at a higher price in the future
to cover this loss.You on the other
hand as a short seller
you are making cash profit
Because your insurance contract
price has increased
Look again at this chart CAPITALCOM:EURUSD
the price on the stochastic
RSI is overbought
That means the buyer has to
much inventory
and he needs to
insure it against damage.
Your role as a short seller
is to sell him insurance.
Explaining short selling
can be a challenge but to cut the
long story "short"
You are selling insurance on the inventory
that the buyer holds.
If you short-sell this Forex pair
remember
to not use more
than x5 margin and take at least 20%
profit.
Also note that this week
is the unemployment rate FRED:UNRATE
will be announced in the news on friday
Which in my opinion is a huge catalyst
for this currency pair CAPITALCOM:EURUSD
Trade safe
full disclosure am not participating
in this trade.
Also this chart reminds me
of the rocket booster strategy
from the short side:
1.Price has to be below the 50 SMA
2.Price has to be below the 200 SMA
3.Price should gap down.
check out the references below
to learn more about this strategy
about the rocket booster
strategy
Rocket boost this content
to learn more
Disclaimer: Trading is risky
please learn risk management
and profit-taking strategies.
Also feel free to use a simulation
trading account before
you trade with real money.
$SPY December 5, 2024AMEX:SPY December 5, 2024
15 Minutes
60 Minutes
Gaps not getting filled.
Very strong uptrend.
Being a moving average and Fib trader i do not have a setup for fresh entry or short.
At the moment if any pull back 60o is the number to watch.
It is 9 moving averages in day, and 38.2% retracement for the move 587.43 to 607.91.
AMEX:SPY not even breaking 21 averages in 60 minutes since the move started from 587.43.
HH HL pattern. No way to short.
At the moment even if I short at 601 levels the target is only 598. So not much R:R.
Need to continue the longs for 608-612 as initial target provided 601 is holding.
I have no position.
Ethereum - RSI Signals Bull Run Peak!ETHUSDT Technical analysis update
ETH’s weekly RSI is currently at 64. In previous bull cycles, ETH’s weekly RSI has climbed above 90, marking the peak of the rally. This time, it’s likely that ETH’s RSI could again reach the 90 level during the peak of the current bull run. Historically, the RSI indicator has proven to be a reliable tool for timing exits in ETH investments.
If the RSI approaches 90, it could signal that ETH is nearing an overbought zone, potentially aligning with a price target of around $10,000. A well-timed exit based on RSI can help lock in profits before any significant pullbacks.
US OIL Trade Log USOIL Short Position Analysis
Technical Indicators :
- 1H Fair Value Gap (FVG): Current price is within the 1-hour FVG, indicating a potential short entry point.
- MACD Divergence: A bearish divergence between the MACD indicator and price action suggests weakening upward momentum.
- Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) Divergence: Bearish CVD divergence indicates increasing selling pressure despite rising prices.
- Ichimoku Kijun Levels: Price is above the 1H, 4H, and daily Kijun lines, placing it in a relative premium zone, which may precede a downward correction.
Fundamental Factors :
- Fear Premium: Recent price increases are attributed to geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East, leading to a 'fear premium' in oil prices.
- Bearish Macro Outlook: Rising U.S. oil inventories and weak global demand projections, especially from China, suggest a bearish outlook for oil prices.
Trade Parameters :
- Position: Short USOIL
- Entry: Within the 1H FVG at current market price.
- Risk Management:
- Risk per Trade: 1% of trading capital
- Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:2
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 Short Position (Discretionary)
Rationale :
- Overextension: The GER40 index appears significantly overextended without substantial fundamental support.
- Rising German Bond Yields: An increase in German government bond yields suggests a shift towards higher borrowing costs, potentially impacting equity valuations.
- MACD Divergence: A notable divergence between the MACD indicator and price action indicates a weakening bullish momentum, often preceding a trend reversal.
- CVD Divergence: Divergence in the Cumulative Volume Delta points to a disparity between buying and selling pressures, signaling a potential downturn.
Trade Details :
- Position: Short GER40 via market order
- Risk Management:
- Risk per Trade: 1% of trading capital
- Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:2
Note: This trade is discretionary and anticipates a sharp correction at market open. Despite the lack of a formal signal, the confluence of technical indicators and macroeconomic factors supports this decision.
AUDUSD Wave Analysis 3 December 2024
- AUDUSD reversed from strong support level 0.6450
- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6530
AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the strong support level 0.6450, which has been reversing the price from the start of August, as can be seen below.
The support level 0.6450 was further strengthened by the nearby lower daily and the weekly Bollinger Bands.
Given the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic indicator, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.6530 (former minor resistance from November).
GBP/AUD: Downside Bias Intensifies Amid Completion of Head and STechnical Analysis
The GBP/AUD pair currently exhibits a downside bias, underpinned by the confirmed head and shoulders pattern. If buyers fail to overcome resistance at 1.95451, further declines towards the outlined support levels are likely.
Key Events to Watch
While Tuesday does not feature any major scheduled events specifically impacting GBP/AUD, market participants are closely monitoring Wednesday's release of Australia's economic growth data and the United Kingdom's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures. These data points could significantly affect volatility in the pair, particularly if the results diverge substantially from consensus expectations.
Read the full article on our website:
erranteacademy.com
CFX is readyAfter an 80% correction from $0.55 this year, CFX seems to have found its lowest price of the year at $0.125. With Bitcoin's positive price movement, CFX looks to provide positive price movement. The signs are that the price action crossed the 21 SMA (weekly chart), and the RSI reversed and crossed the 50 boundaries.
CFX's target is to make a higher high after $0.55. But before that, CFX must be able to cross the $0.23 price because there is a potential supply in that area.
NZDJPY Wave Analysis 2 December 2024
- NZDJPY broke support zone
- Likely to fall to support level 86.75
NZDJPY currency pair recently broke the support zone located between the support level 89.00 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward price move from the start of August.
The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active c-wave of the ABC correction 2 from the start of November.
Given the strongly bullish yen sentiment seen today, NZDJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 86.75 (former support from September and the target price for the completion of the active ABC correction 2).
EURGBP Wave Analysis 2 December 2024
- EURGBP reversed from support zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8325
EURGBP currency pair today reversed up from the support zone located between the strong support level 0.8265 (which has been revering the pair from the start of November) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the earlier impulse waves iii and (iii) –which belong to the downward impulse sequence 1 from August.
Given the strength of the support level 0.8265 and the triple bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic indicator, EURGBP currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.8325.
EURUSD H1 02/12/2024 - SELL below 1.04850 OR BUY above 1.05750Overview of EUR/USD Price Action
The EUR/USD pair is trading in a consolidation zone between 1.04950 (support) and 1.05250 (resistance), as seen on the H1 chart.
Momentum indicators like the RSI (currently around 30-40 on H1) and Stochastic Oscillator suggest that the pair is oversold but lacks a clear directional trend.
The MACD shows bearish momentum weakening, indicating potential for a reversal if resistance is broken, while the Average True Range (ATR) indicates low volatility.
This creates the perfect scenario for breakout trades in both directions, depending on whether the market breaches the consolidation zone.
Buy Stop Setup: Bullish Breakout Case
Resistance Level at 1.05250: This zone has acted as a ceiling for the pair during the consolidation phase. A break above this level signals renewed buying pressure.
Entry Level: Placing the Buy Stop at 1.05300, slightly above the resistance, ensures confirmation of a bullish breakout.
Take-Profit Target: The next key level is around 1.05750, derived from:
The previous monthly high at 1.05790.
Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the previous bearish leg.
Stop-Loss: Setting it at 1.05100, just below the breakout point, protects against false breakouts.
Rationale for a Buy Trade:
A breach above 1.05250 will invalidate the current bearish trend on H1 and confirm short-term bullish momentum.
This move aligns with possible USD weakness in the upcoming sessions due to softening fundamentals (e.g., dovish Fed sentiment or weaker US data, if relevant).
Sell Stop Setup: Bearish Breakout Case
Support Level at 1.04950: This level has provided solid support for the pair recently. A breakdown below this level signals bearish continuation.
Entry Level: Placing the Sell Stop at 1.04850, slightly below support, ensures entry only after confirmation of bearish pressure.
Take-Profit Target: The next target is around 1.04450, derived from:
Fibonacci 161.8% extension of the recent correction.
Psychological round number support at 1.04500.
Stop-Loss: Setting it at 1.05050, just above the breakout level, limits risk exposure from potential pullbacks.
Rationale for a Sell Trade:
A breakdown below 1.04950 signals bearish continuation, possibly targeting the lows seen earlier in November.
This move aligns with recent USD strength and market sentiment favoring safe-haven currencies.
Technical Indicators Supporting the Setup
RSI: On both M30 and H1 timeframes, the RSI hovers near oversold levels, showing a lack of momentum but creating potential for a breakout in either direction.
Stochastic Oscillator: Shows the market is at extremes, either overbought or oversold, adding further credence to the possibility of a directional move.
MACD Divergence: The MACD histogram on H1 is attempting to flatten, suggesting the bearish momentum is waning and that price could either consolidate further or reverse to the upside.
Ichimoku Cloud: The H1 chart shows price is trading below the cloud, indicating a bearish bias. However, price action is close to breaking out, supporting both trade scenarios.
Market Sentiment & Fundamental Factors
Dollar Index (DXY): A closely watched driver of EUR/USD, the DXY has been showing signs of indecision in recent sessions. Any weakening of the dollar could trigger the bullish breakout, while dollar strength supports the bearish case.
ATOMUSDT Long Setup Setting / Quick 15Min LongBINANCE:ATOMUSDT
COINBASE:ATOMUSD
📈Which side you pick?
Bull or Bear
SL1 ---> Low-risk status: 3x-4x Leverage
SL2 ---> Mid-risk status: 5x-8x Leverage
(If there is just one SL on the chart, I suggest, low risk status)
👾Note: The setup is active but expect the uncertain phase as well. also movement lines drawn to predict future price reactions are relative and approximate.
➡️Entry Area:
Yellow zone
⚡️TP:
8.723
8.811
8.913
9.029
🔴SL:
8.358
🧐The Alternate scenario:
If the price stabilizes against the direction of the position, below or above the trigger zone, the setup will be canceled.
DOGSUSDT Long Setup Setting / Quick 15Min Long BINANCE:DOGSUSDT
CRYPTOCOM:DOGSUSD
📈Which side you pick?
Bull or Bear
SL1 ---> Low-risk status: 3x-4x Leverage
SL2 ---> Mid-risk status: 5x-8x Leverage
(If there is just one SL on the chart, I suggest, low risk status)
👾Note: The setup is active but expect the uncertain phase as well. also movement lines drawn to predict future price reactions are relative and approximate.
➡️Entry Area:
Yellow zone
⚡️TP:
0.000772
0.000784
0.000793
0.000804
🔴SL:
0.000714
🧐The Alternate scenario:
If the price stabilizes against the direction of the position, below or above the trigger zone, the setup will be canceled.
USOIL (WTI)Today's trade setup is informed by a top-down approach, with a focus on the interplay between USD strength and commodity markets, particularly crude oil. During the Asian session, the U.S. Dollar displayed significant strength, which often exerts downward pressure on oil prices due to their inverse correlation. This relationship is rooted in the causality loop between the Dollar Index (DXY), global demand for commodities, and their pricing mechanisms.
A stronger dollar typically makes crude oil more expensive for international buyers, reducing demand and weighing on prices. The magnitude of dollar strength in today's Asian session reinforces the likelihood of subdued demand, aligning with our thesis for shorting oil.
On the technical side, crude oil futures have approached a key resistance level, which coincides with declining momentum on shorter timeframes confirming our bearish outlook. Furthermore, the overall risk sentiment in the market remains fragile, supporting safe-haven flows into the dollar and away from risk assets like crude oil.
Given these factors, a short position in oil aligns with both the fundamental and technical backdrop. Trade risk is carefully managed, with stop-loss placement above the resistance level and targets positioned to capitalize on potential declines toward the next key support area. This trade will be actively monitored for any signs of reversal, particularly in the European and U.S. sessions, as shifts in USD dynamics or geopolitical news could alter the setup.
Perhaps something that has been long awaited.Two consecutive divergences seem to have done the trick.
However, the candle has not yet broken the Ichimoku cloud
(and also the rising trend line) and we need to keep watching.
But it is not a complete reaction for two consecutive divergences, that's for sure.
Inverse Head and Shoulders BTC - Neutral but big move aheadThe bear divergence is entering an inverse H and S pattern. The pattern is about to finalize shape. Big move ahead. Could go either way. Good luck and stay tight stop loss which ever way you choose. Volume will be on the rise at that test point