Raw VS Percentage Volatility FormatA Quantitative Comparison of "Buying & Selling Pressure" and "Average Bullish & Bearish Percentage Change"
In market analysis, the choice of averaging method can profoundly influence the insights derived. The "Buying & Selling Pressure " and "Average Bullish & Bearish Percentage Change" indicators demonstrate the unique strengths of fixed-period and candle-count-based averaging approaches.
Key Differences Between Fixed-Period and Candle-Count Averaging
Fixed-Period Averaging in BSP:
➡︎ In "Buying & Selling Pressure", candle metrics are averaged over a defined period (e.g., 14 bars).
➡︎ This provides rapid insights into market sentiment changes, making it ideal for tracking incentive shifts and volatility in real time.
➡︎ However, because this method includes all candles in the averaging window, it may reflect short-term fluctuations, offering less stability compared to candle-count-based methods.
Candle-Count Averaging in ABBPC:
➡︎ "Average Bullish & Bearish Percentage Change"uses a predefined count of bullish or bearish candles for averaging percentage changes.
➡︎ This produces stable and reliable values, which are less sensitive to noise and better suited for risk and reward assessment.
➡︎ The focus on specific candle states ensures that only relevant market behaviors contribute to the averages.
Using Percentage Change for Risk Definition
One of the greatest strengths of the "Average Bullish & Bearish Percentage Change" indicator is its ability to assist in risk and reward calculations with much more market related figures instead of raw values of volatility:
Defining Risk
The average percentage change of bearish candles can serve as a dynamic stop-loss level.
For example, if the average bearish percentage change over the last 10 candles is 2%, a trader can set a stop-loss at 2% below their entry to account for typical market behavior.
Quantifying Reward:
The average bullish percentage change helps identify realistic profit targets.
If the average bullish percentage change over the last 10 candles is 3%, a trader can set a target at 3% above their entry to maintain a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
Dynamic Adjustments:
As the market evolves, these average percentage changes update, allowing traders to adjust their risk and reward levels in real time for better precision.
Quantitative Advantages of Percentage Change Averaging
Normalization Across Price Levels:
Percentage changes enable consistent comparison across assets with vastly different price ranges.
Enhanced Stability for Risk Assessment:
Candle-count averaging smooths out noise, offering a reliable basis for setting risk parameters like stop-losses and profit targets.
Improved Predictability:
By isolating specific candle behaviors, percentage-based metrics provide clearer signals for trend-following or mean-reversion strategies.
Advantages of BSP’s Fixed-Period Averaging
Despite being less stable, "Buying & Selling Pressure " excels in areas requiring speed and adaptability:
Fast Incentive Tracking:
Period-based averaging adapts quickly to changing market conditions, providing timely insights into shifts in buying or selling pressure.
Broad Volatility Capture:
BSP includes all candles in the defined period, capturing overall market dynamics, including sudden spikes or reversals.
Real-Time Decision Making:
Its responsiveness makes it highly suitable for momentum or breakout trading strategies.
Bottomline:
Use "Average Bullish & Bearish Percentage Change" for stable, consistent data ideal for risk assessment, particularly when defining dynamic stop-loss levels or profit targets based on average percentage changes.
Use "Buying & Selling Pressure " for its speed and adaptability in tracking real-time shifts in market incentives and capturing volatility.
M-oscillator
Without patience, there is nothing else to do in this market.So, we have the first positive signal, but we need to wait one more week for the monthly candle to close like this.
1. The candle has risen above the cloud boundaries and crosses the Kijun and Tenkan indication lines.
2. WaveTrend oscillator shows a bullish signal, but we need to wait for the candle to close like this.
3. Let's pay attention to the length of the red clouds. It is in this interval that the market reaches a new peak approximately in the middle of the cloud, followed by a correction. The last time the cloud was formed was from October 2020 to February 2023. The top of the market is December 2021. Now the cloud is in the segment 1 January 2025 - 1 September 2026. The midpoint of this cycle is October 2025.
We'll be watching.
Bitcoin Nears $100,000 as China Clarifies Personal Crypto RightsBitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, has been on a tear, recently surpassing the $99,000 mark. This surge has been fueled by a combination of factors, including increased institutional adoption, favorable regulatory developments, and growing global economic uncertainty.
China's Crypto Clarity
One of the most significant developments for the cryptocurrency market has been China's clarification of its stance on personal crypto ownership. While the country has imposed strict regulations on cryptocurrency trading and mining, it has clarified that individuals are allowed to hold cryptocurrencies for personal use. This regulatory clarity has boosted investor confidence and could potentially lead to increased adoption of cryptocurrencies in China, the world's second-largest economy.
Institutional Adoption Continues to Grow
Institutional investors, such as hedge funds, pension funds, and corporations, have been increasingly investing in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. This growing institutional interest has provided significant support to the market and has helped to drive the price of Bitcoin higher.
Global Economic Uncertainty
The ongoing global economic uncertainty, including rising inflation, geopolitical tensions, and the potential for a recession, has led investors to seek alternative assets. Bitcoin, as a decentralized and inflation-resistant asset, has become an attractive investment option for many.
Technical Analysis: A Bullish Outlook
Technical analysis of Bitcoin's price chart suggests that the cryptocurrency is in a strong uptrend. The recent breakout above the $99,000 level has further strengthened the bullish sentiment. Key technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), are signaling1 bullish momentum.
On-Chain Data Points to Further Upside
On-chain data, which analyzes the behavior of Bitcoin on the blockchain, provides further insights into the potential for future price appreciation. Metrics like the MVRV Z-Score, NUPL, and Puell Multiple suggest that Bitcoin is not overbought and has significant room to grow.
Challenges and Risks
While the outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish, it is important to acknowledge the risks and challenges associated with investing in cryptocurrencies. These include:
• Market Volatility: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and Bitcoin's price can fluctuate significantly in a short period.
• Regulatory Uncertainty: Changes in regulations can impact the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
• Security Risks: Cryptocurrencies are vulnerable to hacking attacks and other security threats.
• Technical Issues: Technical issues with the Bitcoin network could negatively impact its performance and price.
Conclusion
Bitcoin's recent surge to near $100,000 has been fueled by a combination of factors, including increased institutional adoption, favorable regulatory developments, and growing global economic uncertainty. While the future of Bitcoin remains uncertain, the current bullish sentiment and strong technical indicators suggest that the cryptocurrency could continue its upward trajectory. However, investors should approach Bitcoin with caution and be aware of the risks involved.
BREAKOUT SOON THE HMSTR/USDT is about to breakout but lets wait if the EMA 20 AND 50 is about to cross to get a momentum of buying in 4 hour time frame. Same in RSI AND MACD
NIFTY50.....Sucker-wave has started!Hello Traders,
the NIFTY50 has declined to 23263 on Thursday and my forecast ("...one more lower low") played out well!
The decline since the ATH is to count as a "five down" and Friday's price action seems to mark the end of the weakening phase and a pullback has begun!?
If so, a first target range is around the 24484 to 24537 range with more bullish potential exist.
Even more, the N50 has fallen into the area of the 0.618 Fibonacci of the advance from 21281 to 26277!
Anyway. Normally a correction is to watch with a first leg done, a "counter-trend move" into the main direction of the larger trend, and finally, a second leg down to complete the correction.
So, we have probably seen a first leg down and the coming days could be bullish.
I have labeled the chart as a wave (v/a?) with a "question-mark, 'cause I am not sure what next to come. Seasonal we are in a phase of bullish price action, but....!?
We will check the pattern early next week and see....
Have a great weekend.....
Ruebennase
Please ask or comment as appropriate.
Trading on this analysis is at your own risk.
USDCHF Wave Analysis 22 November 2024
- USDCHF broke resistance zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9000
USDCHF currency pair today broke the resistance zone located between the resistance level 0.8900 (which has been reversing the price from July) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from April.
The breakout of this resistance zone coincided with the breakout of the daily up channel from September – which accelerated the active impulse wave (5).
USDCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next round resistance level 0.9000.
XRPUSDT Long Setup Setting / Targets and PlansBINANCE:XRPUSDT
COINBASE:XRPUSD
📈Which side you pick?
Bull or Bear
SL1 ---> Low-risk status: 3x-4x Leverage
SL2 ---> Mid-risk status: 5x-8x Leverage
(If there is just one SL on the chart, I suggest, low risk status)
👾Note: The setup is active but expect the uncertain phase as well. also movement lines drawn to predict future price reactions are relative and approximate.
➡️Entry Area:
Yellow zone - 1.10 - 1.12
⚡️TP:
1.1723
1.2193
1.2660
1.3132
🔴SL:
1.0439
🧐The Alternate scenario:
If the price stabilizes against the direction of the position, below or above the trigger zone, the setup will be canceled.
𝙽𝚘𝚝 𝚝𝚘𝚍𝚊𝚢 !In the 2-hour time frame, the price of gold has created a bearish divergence, which means the price could decline in the coming days.
Ethereum Longterm Price Prediction / 3500$ is the next stationBINANCE:ETHUSDT
COINBASE:ETHUSD
📈Which side you pick?
Bull or Bear
SL1 ---> Low-risk status: 3x-4x Leverage
SL2 ---> Mid-risk status: 5x-8x Leverage
(If there is just one SL on the chart, I suggest, low risk status)
👾Note: The setup is active but expect the uncertain phase as well. also movement lines drawn to predict future price reactions are relative and approximate.
➡️Entry Area:
Yellow zone
⚡️TP:
3000$
3500$
3914$
🔴SL:
2024$
🧐The Alternate scenario:
If the price stabilize against the direction of the position, below or above the trigger zone, the setup will be canceled.
EURCHF Wave Analysis 21 November 2024
- EURCHF under bearish pressure
- Likely to fall to support level 0.9250
EURCHF under the bearish pressure after breaking the support zone between the support level 0.9335 (which has been reversing the price from September) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward price move from August.
The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active minor impulse wave iii of the higher order impulse wave (3) from May.
EURCHF can be expected to fall further to the next support level 0.9250, former strong support from January and August.
Hanging ManAt the end of the day a Hanging Man with a turning bearish ADX seems to be inviting for an imminent correction downwards.
bullish xrp
Here's a polished version of your analysis in English that you can share:
XRP Analysis: Potential 20% Rise
Hello my friend,
XRP is looking strong right now, and it’s time to keep an eye on it. We're approaching a key breakout point, and after that, we may see a retest of the breakout level. This could provide a perfect entry opportunity.
Key Points to Watch:
Breakout Setup: XRP is nearing a critical level where a breakout is likely, which could trigger a significant upward movement.
Retest Opportunity: After the breakout, watch for a retest of the breakout point, which will confirm the trend and present a good buying opportunity.
20% Upside Potential: Based on current technical indicators, there's a high probability that XRP will rise by approximately 20%.
Stay alert and monitor the market closely for the next moves!
CYCLE 4 | Realised Price Oscillator & Overlay - DETAILEDThis post is intended to be used with an earlier interactive companion post, crated to observe BTC's interactions in prior cycles so we can take learnings into cycle 4 with respect to BTC's under and over extensions of the calculated Realised Price.
A quick refresher - What is Realized Price?
Source: www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com
"Bitcoin Realized Price is the value of all bitcoins at the price they were last transacted on-chain, divided by the number of bitcoins in circulation. This gives us the ‘average cost basis’ at which all bitcoins were purchased, which is another way of describing Realized Price."
The above relationships have been incorporated into the Overlay and Oscillator indicators developed for this post to use into DCA accumulation and sell strategies.
Historic Observations
As per the above prior post, we see BTC enters a cycle topping and bottom phase when BTC's 'Realised Price' enters the top red and bottom green over extended regions of the normalised Oscillator and the Red and Blue Extension lines of the Overlay indicators.
We see historically the Oscillator shows the region where price moves with high volatility and other indicators that rely on divergence can extended much further than in other periods in the cycle before a true change in trend is achieved. In 2021 Overlay indicator (RED Line) was breached many times before we put in a significant trend change and the ultimate cycle top was realised at the second peak interestingly at the lower 'Purple' extension line November of that year.
CYCLE 4 Update
Where are we now according to the Realised Price Overlay and Oscillator indicators... Based on historic review of BTC relationship suggests we are about to enter the parabolic region of this cycles (Oscillator is about to enter into the 'RED' zone and Overlay indicator has breached the Purple line and is between the Red and Purple line).
Interestingly this relationship aligns with our cycle mapping posts, looking at BTC historic behavior since cycle bottoms and tops and BTC price targets based on Fibonacci extensions.
CYCLE 4 | Realised Price Oscillator & OverlayThis post is intended as an interactive companion post with a 'to follow' detail post for historic analysis.
I want to explore the relationship with BTC and Realised Price, and historically where we have seen cycle over bought and sold regions based on extensions from calculated realised price values.
What is Realized Price?
Source: www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com
"Bitcoin Realized Price is the value of all bitcoins at the price they were last transacted on-chain, divided by the number of bitcoins in circulation. This gives us the ‘average cost basis’ at which all bitcoins were purchased, which is another way of describing Realized Price."
The above relationships have been incorporated into the Overlay and Oscillator indicators developed for this post to use into DCA accumulation and sell strategies.
I will follow this post with a zoomed version for detailed discussion.
Gold - Wave 5, plus CCI and RSI confirmationAt the trough we had the RSI close to oversold, and we can say that CCI showed an oversold condition.
The CCI that measures the deviaton its smoothed with an 14-ma and adding the RSI above we have the market confirmation.
The candles formed three white soldiers that seems very strong.
We are in the beginning of wave 5 with the objective to go to a new high above wave 3.
Treasury yields at a crossroads? The implications for marketsThe long end of the US Treasury curve has been influential for FX markets recently. The rolling 10-day correlation between US 10-year yields with the DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY is either strongly positive or negative. Even gold shows a notable -0.73 correlation, highlighting the influence of long bonds on broader markets.
Given the inverse relationship between bond yields and prices, it’s no surprise that the correlation between 10-year yields and 10-year Treasury futures (shown in orange, left-hand pane) has been nearly perfectly negative over the past two weeks.
In terms of directional risks for yields moving forward, the right-hand pane showing US 10-year Treasury note futures is instructive. The price remains in a downtrend, repeatedly rejected since being established October. If this trend persists, it signals lower prices and higher yields.
That said, with the bullish hammer candle from the lows last week, coupled with RSI (14) and MACD which are providing bullish signals on momentum, you get the sense we may be in the early stages of a turning point.
If we were to see the price break the downtrend, resistance may be encountered at 113’00, a level that’s been tested from both sides in recent weeks. If that were to give way, it points to an environment of a softer US dollar and kinder conditions for longer duration assets and commodities.
Good luck!
DS
Merck & CO Inc: MRK oversoldIt's a cypher like bullish pattern with measurements close to an ideal cypher i.e. 1.5 per cent discrepancy, but I am looking at a broad timeframe over last couple of years. assuming it is bottoming these days around 95 it should bounce back to around 120 i.e. fibo .618 of the cd leg. - at least!
main oscillators i track indicate oversold on day, week, month TF
Coca-Cola Wave Analysis 20 November 2024
- Coca-Cola reversed from support level 61.35
- Likely to rise to resistance level 64.00
Coca-Cola earlier reversed up from the support zone between the pivotal support level 61.35 (former monthly high from February and March) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star, which started the active minor ABC correction (ii).
Coca-Cola can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 64.00, which is the target price for the completion of the active wave ii.
GBPUSD Trade PlanChart shows a bullish divergence between price and RSI, alongside an inverse head and shoulders pattern, indicating a potential bullish reversal.
The trade setup suggests a buy stop above the neckline at 1.27268, with a stop loss at 1.25861 (below the lower low).
Profit targets are TP1 at 1.28680 (first resistance) and TP2 at 1.30080 (higher resistance).
Ensure confirmation with a strong breakout above the neckline.
Partial profits can be taken at TP1, moving the stop loss to breakeven for a risk-free trade.
If the price closes below 1.25861, the setup is invalidated, and no entry should be made.
UK inflation report to provide fresh GBP/USD setupsGBP/USD would likely be a lot higher heading into today’s UK inflation report if not for the Ukraine headlines yesterday. The bullish pin coming a day after a bullish engulfing candle says as much, reflective of plenty of willing buyers below 1.2613.
With RSI (14) breaking its downtrend and MACD looking like it may soon flick higher, momentum also looks to be in the early stages of turning, adding weight to the price signals over the past two sessions. While the near-term bias is bullish, entry for potential longs will be determined by the UK inflation report due out shortly.
The annual headline rate is expected to accelerate to 2.2% from 1.7%, although traders may want to put more weight on the core and services figures given noise created by base effects. The former is seen easing a tenth to 3.1% while services is tipped to remain sticky at 4.9%, reflecting the impact of continued strength in wages growth.
However, domestic factors have not been highly influential over GBP/USD moves recently, as demonstrated by the extremely tight inverse relationship with US benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields over the past fortnight.
If the relationship persists, use the reaction to the report to evaluate the merit of setups.
If we see a dip towards 1.2613, you could buy with a tight stop beneath for protection. 1.2720 would be the initial target with 1.2803 the next after that. Another option would be to wait to see whether the price can break above 1.2720, allowing for longs to be established with a stop below. 1.2083/200DMA would be the first target. Beyond, the uptrend dating back to May is also on the radar. It’s found around 1.2930 today.
If the price were to break and hold below 1.2613, the bullish bias would be invalidated.
Good luck!
DS
ZSL/JDST: Potential Long OpportunityZSL/JDST pair is signaling a Long position at the close of yesterday, supported by multi indicators, suggesting a promising opportunity.
ADX : Indicates no trend at present, and a quick look at the daily chart confirms it.
Correlation : remains very high in the last few weeks.
Close price : closed below lower BB.
Historical test : I would be happier with more historical opportunities in the last few months to test, but generally it seems okay.
USD/CAD: Eyes on inflation as reversal sets stage for downsideThe Canadian dollar delivered a reversal signal against the greenback on Monday, with USD/CAD printing a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart. After trading within an uptrend since early November, this suggests directional risks could be turning, even if momentum indicators like RSI (14) and MACD are yet to confirm.
USD/CAD briefly tried to bounce during the Asian session but stalled at 1.4034, the low from last Friday. For those considering shorts, this level provides a decent setup, allowing for entry beneath with a tight stop above for protection.
To make the trade stack up from a risk/reward perspective, it will require the price to break minor support at 1.4003 first, opening the path toward 1.3959, a level that acted as resistance in late October and early November.
Today’s inflation report is a standout in a slow global data week. The annual CPI rate is expected to climb from 1.6% to 1.9% in October, nearing the midpoint of the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) 1-3% target range. Core inflation, which is the average of Statistics Canada’s trim and median CPI readings, is expected to print at 2.4%, slightly above September’s pace.
With the BoC forecasting core inflation of 2.3% by December, a result in line with market expectation should do little to diminish the view that further rate cuts are in the pipeline. However, an upside surprise could see the BoC start to slow the pace of easing. Such an outcome would improve the prospects of the trade succeeding.
Good luck!
DS
TOP 10 BEST TRADINGVIEW INDICATORS FOR 2025In this video, I show you all how I use some of my favorite TradingView indicators for my trading & investing strategies & explain how these can be the most powerful tools in your arsenal if you are a trader or investor!
My Top 10 TradingView Indicators are also Below:
1. CM_Ultimate RSI Multi Time Frame by ChrisMoody
2. Death Cross - 200 MA / 50 Cross Checker by MexPayne
3. Gaps
4. Indicator: WaveTrend Oscillator by LazyBear
5. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
6. Pi Cycle Bottom Indicator by Doncic
7. RCI3lines by gero
8. Stochastic RSI
9. TDI - Traders Dynamic Index by JuanManuelOrtiz
10. True Strength Index
