M-oscillator
StormX (STMX)On the above 4-day chart price action has corrected over 90% since the sell signal(not shown). Today is great long opportunity. Why?
1) You know why.
2) RSI and price action resistance breakout.
3) Strong bullish divergence. Multiple oscillators print positive divergence with price action over an extended period.
Is it possible price action falls further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=6% of portfolio
Timeframe: Now, don’t sit on your hands.
Return: Will say elsewhere
Sainsbury £200 to £300 playStock should be trading around £300 / + 150% in 18 months. Not a bad trade for investors looking to play it safe in the face of an 'alleged recession' being in the post. The stock has been trading inside this descending triangle for years and just confirmed support on the bottom.
The monthly chart below confirms the bullish divergence.
NKN - 100x opportunityOn the above 1-day chart price action has corrected 95% since April 2021. A number of reasons now exist to be long, including:
1) The ‘incredible buy’ signal.
2) Broken price action and RSI resistance.
3) Price action is testing past resistance (green line), look at the weekly chart below.
4) Price action has corrected to the golden ratio (see weekly chart below).
5) Nudge nudge wink wink. Don’t know what I mean? Shame.
Is it possible price action falls further? Sure.
Is it probable? no.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=6% of portfolio
Timeframe: don’t know.
Return: $8 or 100x
Weekly chart
3-day BTC pair
$SPY July 26, 2024AMEX:SPY July 26, 2024
15 Minutes.
The short below 549 worked out well.
Oscillator divergence around 555 to 565 played
out well in 15 minutes.
Noe considering the move 565 to 546 to 556 we can expect 528 as target being 1.618 level for this move.
However, 535-536 is 200 averages in 3-hour time frame, hence that will be the first target.
And in 15 minutes we had a divergence between 543 and 537. So, a pullback to 547 was done.
That move retraced nearly 50% for the fall 556 to 537.
At the moment we have sell on rise probably until 553 is crossed being 200 averages as of now.
So, for the day due to oscillator divergence in place i will not short.
If there is a retracement to 544 levels depending on parameters i might take a call.
Finally for the rise 493 to 566 AMEX:SPY has retraced 38.2% being 537 levels.
50% retracement would be 529 levels.
Hence for the moment 528-530 is important level on downside.
Health Care ETF May Have Broken OutMany observers have spoken recently about market rotation. They often cite money shifting from megacaps to small caps. But another forgotten sector could be benefiting as well: healthcare.
The first pattern on today’s chart of the SPDR Select Sector Health Care ETF is the June 24 close of $147.09. XLV was trapped below this approximate level since late February, but crossed above it earlier in July. Prices are bouncing after retesting it last week. Has old resistance become new support?
Second, you have a series of higher weekly lows since mid-April. Those may reflect accumulation by long-term investors.
Third, prices are near the 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Both SMAs are also near each other, which may create potential for price expansion.
Finally, MACD recently tuned positive.
Standardized Performances for the ETF mentioned above:
SPDR Select Sector Health Care ETF (XLV)
1-year: +9.81%
5-years: +58.70%
10-year: +142.80%
(As of June 28, 2024)
Performance data shown reflects past performance and is no guarantee of future performance. The information provided is not meant to predict or project the performance of a specific investment or investment strategy and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data shown. Accordingly, this information should not be relied upon when making an investment decision.
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Bearish Signals on the S&P 500Despite recently reaching an all-time high of 5,669, the S&P 500's monthly chart is on track to end July with a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern, snapping a two-month bullish phase. Follow-through selling on the chart could see the unit trade as far south as support at 4,776.
Meanwhile, on the weekly chart, last week ended in a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern (which focusses on real bodies, not upper and lower shadows), with the market index down -1.4% week to date. Channel resistance-turned-support extended from the high of 4,607, coupled with support coming in at 5,264, calls for attention as the next layer of support.
Therefore, in addition to monthly and weekly charts showing negative divergences from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), chart studies demonstrate the scope to press lower until connecting with weekly support around 5,300.
BurgerCities (BURGER) to $17On the above 6-day chart price action has corrected 97% since May 2021. A number of reasons now exist to take a long position, including:
1) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts.
2) Price action prints support on past resistance confirming the trend reversal.
3) The falling wedge breakout forecasts a 4000% move to $17.
Is it possible price action corrects further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=6%
Timeframe for long: this week
Return: 4000%
FORD - ICE predominates EV falters LONGFord has scaled back its EV ambitions in consideration of the marketplace while TSLA drops
its price in the Eurozone and falls into less than first place in the China EV market. Ford's
F-150 truck continues to dominate GM and the others in North America.
On the 4H chart, first a price uptrend and then retrace to the 0.5 Fib level and a reverse into
a new trend up. A pair of EMAs shows an impending golden cross also suggested by
the zero lag MACD. The two RSI lines ( 60 minutes and 480 minutes fast and slow) are
rising and about to cross the 50 level.
I see this as a long entry for Ford. Targets based on major pivots in 2023 are 13 and 14.25
Possible long on CADJPY next weekWhen a currency breaks outside the channel and then changes color, it signals a reversal in strength/trend. By waiting for this to happen to two currencies during the same candle, an entry signal is created (CAD=red, JPY=white)
The current trend has not ended, however. Based on previous data, it looks like it will take 3-4 more candles for the CAD and JPY lines to change color outside the channel, signaling the CADJPY pair to reverse into a bullish direction.
I am projecting 3 days of forward ATR against the previous candle's bodys low (I prefer measuring this rather than the high/low wicks), to get a price range of 111.738 to 116.446 over the next week. Based on today's current price, it puts the lower end to 113.189, which is also about 1x ATR from yesterday's open, so it "lines up" in that sense.
We'll probably have confirmation to go long around Wednesday of next week!
Good luck on your trades
Note: Here is the indicator in action for the last 4 months. Over the last 4 months, it would have been accurate 5 out of 6 times (83%), with small wins each time (and possibly one big win), depending on your trade entry and how you manage your trades:
Upcoming short/reversal on GBPNZD in the next few daysMy FICO indicator works by making a DXY-like index for each currency, then plotting their rate of change on an oscillator to show relative strength/weakness. When two currencies are on opposite ends and change directions, it is an entry signal.
In this case, GBP (dull green, top) and NZD (lime green, bottom) are on opposite sides of the oscillator channel. The directional flip has not happened yet, but it is inevitable. We must wait for this to confirm first, since the current trend still has momentum.
I estimate it could take about 3 days for the trend to finish, and over that time, price could visit anywhere in the 2.12556 to 2.16300 level. Once we enter, we'll target about 1080 pips short and let the trend ride in our favor. This can change depending on what the price actually does in the next week and is also based on current values.
Possible short on EURCHF for next weekI have been working on my own indicator called FICO (FX Index Curve Oscillator). It seems to perform well in backtesting and as a way to engage in forward testing, I am posting this idea.
Basically it works by making our own DXY-like index for each currency, then plotting its rate of change. By looking at relative strength and weakness with each one, we can find pairs and direction to trade.
Using this indicator, it shows that the EUR is about to flip negative, and the CHF is about to flip positive. Therefore, we want to short EURCHF to be on the right side of both of these tickers.
But we're not there quite yet. We need another candle or two for the confirmation to happen (eg we might get another green candle with a large wick) so we don't want to enter yet and risk getting stopped out. If the trade works out exactly as planned (eg entry at 0.97719 and hits 4x ATR level), then this trade would be worth 180 pips.
Let's find out next week!
AUD/JPY the most oversold since the pandemic plungeYou don’t see unwinds of Japanese yen carry trades like we’re seeing right now outside of crisis periods. It doesn’t feel like we’re in a crisis, making me wonder just how long the current bearish move will last?
AUD/JPY has been among largest casualties, hammered lower by a combination of China pessimism, large declines on Wall Street and narrowing yield differentials between the United States and Japan.
I discussed a short setup in AUD/JPY yesterday, but such has the speed of the unwind been it’s nearly reached the target after falling more than 150 points, extending the decline from the recent peak to over eight big figures.
While I think there’s more downside to come, it’s rare for such a liquid FX pair to so sharply in one direction for a sustained period. Even during my time on the desk during the height of the GFC, we saw massive countertrend rallies during what ended up being the largest carry trade unwind on record.
As such, when the market provides the signal, I’m positioning for a bounce with the help of long-running uptrend support which is located just 40 pips below where AUD/JPY currently trades.
Should it hold, or if the market is unwilling to test it in early Asian trade, buying with a tight stop around 100.60 is one setup, allowing traders to target a push back towards horizontal support at 102.64.
To put in context just how oversold AUD/JPY is, on RSI (14), you have to go back to the initial panic at the start of the pandemic to find a similar reading.
DS
$SQ - Wants to move badly, consolidating hardThis is a confusing one for me. The 1 day chart looks bearish as usual, no great volume, actual down trend on the RSI, macd indifferent, all technical indicators say bear/mid.
But, that 4 hour chart, the Trend Meter and stochastics read bullish reversal. Did I just catch this thing before it popped?
Check out the 1 day chart divergence channels. It effectively closed out of that range the past 2 days, but B(E)ARELY.
Thinking the next few days will be a big indicator if we consolidate for another 1+ weeks or if this thing starts to move it's convergence to bullish.
Divergence: RSI vs. PriceHey everyone!
In my years of trading, I've really come to love Reversal Strategies and my favorite is in the form of a DIVERGENCE!
Today, I took some time to put together an Educational Video on:
1) What a Divergence Is?
2) How to Spot them!
&
3) How to Trade them!
I hope you find this helpful!
**Tips
- Divergence is never good enough to trade alone, YOU NEED CONFIRMATION!
- The longer the Divergence takes, the more reliable it is
- Change in Momentum is KEY!
Ross Stores: Pullback Near HighsRoss Stores rallied in the winter. Now, after a period of consolidation, some traders may see potential for further upside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the pair of bullish gaps after the last two earnings reports. The first gap sent the retailer to new highs above its 2021 peak. The second reestablished it above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
The price jumps could reflect positive fundamentals. The move above the 50-day SMA may suggest the intermediate-term trend has gotten more bullish again. Also notice the latest pullback.
Next, ROST made a weekly low of $142.65 on June 11. Last week it tested and held that level. Has new support been established near old highs?
Third, higher weekly lows occurred along the 200-day SMA in May. That could suggest its longer-term trend is upward.
Last, stochastics have dipped to an oversold condition.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
USDCAD - Sell Stop on Break of Previous Higher LowTrade Analysis
Currently, there is a bearish divergence and 4-hour resistance indicating a potential trend reversal to bearish. Confirmation of this reversal will be evident if the price breaks the previous HL. As it breaks the HL, it will also break the support levels. Consequently, this support will turn into resistance and will be used as the SL.
Trade Plan
Entry: 1.37012
Stop Loss (SL): 1.37095
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 1.36929
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 1.36846
GBP/AUD stretched and nearing known reversal area GBP/AUD is rarely as overbought as it is right now. And when it has been this overbought in the recent past, it’s usually coincided with a near-term top. It’s also fast approaching 1.9500, a level that has been akin to poison for longs throughout 2024. Combined, it has me on alert for a potential topping signal, providing the catalyst to establish shorts with favourable risk-reward.
It’s clear the bulls are in control right now. But should we see a topping pattern – be it a bearish pin, tombstone doji or similar – the tale of the recent tape suggests getting short could prove fruitful. But wait for the appropriate signal before doing so.
Those considering taking on the trade could place a stop above 1.9570 for protection. Potential targets include 1.93493, the former downtrend just below 1.9300 or 1.9250.
DS
$SPY July 23, 2024AMEX:SPY July 23, 2024
15 Minutes.
The gap up helped AMEX:SPY to achieve 554-555 easily.
At the moment gap not filled in 15 minutes. So, this move is good.
If we draw extension from 547.9 to 554.46 to 551.03. we have first target as 557 to 561 levels.
So, consider the last rise from 551.03 to 555.27 AMEX:SPY need to hold 552 levels to continue the uptrend.
As written many times. Daily is still up. No change. To get trades I do 15 minutes.
For the fall 565.16 to 547.9 we have 61.8% retracement as 558 levels. So, this also supports 556 557 as initial target.
The oscillator divergence played out well during the fall.
At the moment i am long from 552 levels.