USD/CHF Weekly AnalysisThe market continues to see USD/CHF as overpriced above the 0.9200 zone.
For the first time this year, we see price printing a weekly close below 0.9052 which was support over the latter part of January 2025.
More importantly, we have just seen a weekly close below the 'big number' 0.9000 and may see further downside.
In addition, the stochastic has now dropped out of the weekly 'overbought' area.
Look for pullbacks and sell setups on your time frame of choice if you agree with analysis.
M-oscillator
Betting Trend End for Reddit. RDDTThese are often hard to pick and as a pivot or fade take, it is inherently more risky. The Stop is tight. Never the less Fibonacci cluster of 5 and 2 to 5 show some high probability areas of take profits. In practice we do not use stationary stops or targets, dynamic systems have proven to be more useful.
Gap Down on Soundhound AI. SOUNThere is a sizeable gap that crosses the low of A. We are probably looking at another Zigzag with a fairly shallow correction on A, which is discernibly fairly standard ABCDE. In our experience any gap almost never get corrected pronto, so we can expect more downward momentum on this stock.
SofiTech Rally Not Over Yet. SOFIThe Elliott Wave count is hard on this one. In my experience if your count tell you that you are done with a trend bullish or bearish, then you are probably not. Unfortunately, often enough trend completion is only confirmed much, much later. So, that leaves us assuming that we are still then continuing with the trend. Technical indicators are supportive of this notion and price action trigger is seen with MIDAS line cross.
Zigzag on Coinbase Global. COINText book example of an Elliott zigzag. 3 or 5 wave move, followed by ABCDE retraction to 0.618, fibtime B Wave over 1.0 and now price action confirmed by MIDAS line cross. MIDAS line cross for confirmation, we found, is superior to neckline/trendline cross for confirmation. To play the devil's advocate, this may be a more complex B wave and we might observe more floundering for some time.
Adidas Moving with Momentum. ADIConverging Elliott triangle and three soldiers on price action. MIDAS line cross plus supportive, upgoing vWAP/US combo is reassuring. BB%PCT flip present, plus simultaneous, recent signal throw off by VZO/EshlersStochRSI combo. All of this paints a high likelihood of continued motion to the upside. We may find resistance at the upper triangle trendlines, or establish it as a support and keep moving further up from there.
Trend Continuation on Deere & Co. DEWhat is most striking about this picture is the sudden change in price action - this may be a sign of continuation of trend and completion of XABC harmonic pattern. Technicals on VZO, Stoch RSI are quite suggestive. BB%PCT quickly flipped back to bullish. The bullish engulfing candle crossed vWAP, US and MIDAS lines simultaneously. Good luck out there and manage your risk.
Stryker Fails to Strike Higher. SYKWe may be looking at a lagging diagonal of a much larger pattern here that has confirmed its completion about a day and a half ago. If this is true then we are due to a correction. Technicals sure seem to support this coming from momentum, volume, volatility, stochastic angles.
Gold Wave Analysis – 14 February 2025
- Gold reversed from resistance zone
- Likely to fall to support level 2860.00
Gold today reversed down the resistance zone between the key resistance level 2940.00 (which formed daily Doji earlier this month), the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from January and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone will most likely form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing – if the price closes today near the current levels.
Given that both daily Stochastic and RSI indicators are high in the overbought areas, Gold can be expected to fall to the next support level 2860.00.
S&P internals and momentum show waekness These both divergences show short term weakness in the S&P 500
This does not mean that there are opportunities out there, european markets are showing strength
Even some S&P sectors still have good relative strength: AMEX:XSW AMEX:XLY AMEX:XLC
But commodities are even better, just see AMEX:DBA making new 52-week highs
$SPY February 14, 2025AMEX:SPY February 14, 2025
15 Minutes.
As expected, once box was broken yesterday AMEX:SPY continued to make upward movement.
For the rise 598.52 to 607.49 to 605 61.8% extension was nearly done. Once 611 is crossed we can expect some resistance around 612-614 levels.
611-612 will be a good number to short as 4SPY in 15 minutes is getting away from 200 and 100 moving averages.
If uptrend continue today, then near close short around 612 +-1 will be good for Monday SL 614.5.
At the moment there is slight oscillator divergence in 15 minutes so need some more uptrend to short.
So, for the day for the last rise from 605 to 609.94 holding 606-607 is important for 610-612 as target.
Below 606 at the moment target is 603-604 levels.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Pulls Back After RallyVertex Pharmaceuticals ended January with a big rally. Now, after a pullback, some traders may see an opportunity.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the price gap on January 31 after the FDA approved its Journavx painkiller. (It’s the first of its kind to treat pain in a unique way without addiction risks.) The stock has retraced the surge, which may appeal to dip buyers.
Second is the October 7 close of $448.60. VRTX held that level in late November and again on December 18 before gapping down. The stock is now trying to stabilize in the same location, suggesting support may remain in effect.
Next, the MACD surge in January could reflect bullish short-term momentum. Prices are also trying to hold the rising 21-day exponential moving average.
Finally, VRTX is near its 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages. That may create potential for the longer-term trend to accelerate if the short-term strength continues.
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GBPCHF Wave Analysis – 13 February 2025
- GBPCHF reversed from the resistance zone
- Likely to fall to support level 1.1240
GBPCHF currency pair recently reversed from the resistance zone between the powerful resistance level 1.1360, (which stopped multiple upward waves from September) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance area created the daily Doji candlesticks pattern, which stopped the previous short-term ABC correction ii from the start of January.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.1360 and the overbought daily Stochastic, GBPCHF currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.1240.
Another Shot at Breaking the Downtrend—Will This One Stick?AUD/JPY is making another attempt to break downtrend resistance dating back to the highs struck in July last year. With momentum indicators such as RSI (14) and MACD turning bullish, this attempt may prove more successful than January’s failed breakout.
The intersection of the downtrend with minor horizontal support at 96.80 looms as a key level in assessing near-term setups.
Longs could be established above it with a stop-loss order beneath, should the break hold. Targets include 97.78 and 99.10. If the breakout fails, shorts could be considered beneath, with a stop-loss placed above for protection. 95.00—where buyers have been lurking—is one potential target.
From a fundamental perspective, keep an eye on movements in US 10-year Treasury yields which have been a key driver not just for USD/JPY but also AUD/JPY recently.
Good luck!
DS
CHFJPY Wave Analysis – 12 February 2025
- CHFJPY reversed from the support area
- Likely to rise to the resistance level 170.00
CHFJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the support area located between the multi-month support level 166.70 (which has been reversing the price from last March) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support area created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line.
Given the strength of the support level 166.70 and the oversold daily Stochastic, CHFJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 170.00 (former support from last month).
ASX 200 SPI: Buying Dips Until the Price Action Says OtherwiseAustralian ASX 200 SPI futures remain a buy-on-dips play until the price action suggests otherwise, bouncing again off channel support on Tuesday, repeating the pattern seen numerous times over the past two months.
Even though momentum indicators don’t look great, with MACD rolling over while RSI (14) remains in a modest downtrend, it’s hard to turn outright bearish unless the price breaks and closes beneath channel support.
Risk-reward doesn’t favour entering longs around these levels—unless you’re aiming for a run beyond the record highs—but moves towards the trendline would generate a decent bullish setup. Longs could be established above the level with a stop beneath for protection. 8494—the February 7 high—looms as one potential target. The record highs at 8546 is another.
If the price were to break and close beneath channel support, the bullish bias would be invalidated.
Good luck!
DS
Wen Alt Szn?BTC.D has just tested the .618 of its December 2020 long term high, December 2020 marked the beginning of the 2021 alt season. Its December 2020 long term high is the .618 from December 2016, December 2016 marked the beginning of the 2017 alt season.
BTC.D's weekly RSI has entered overbought levels while forming bearish divergence similarly to the December 2020 long term high.
Keysight Technologies Sneaks HigherMany of the biggest technology names have struggled lately, but Keysight Technologies could be attempting a breakout.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the July 2023 peak of $172.72. The provider of network-testing equipment ended January making a new 52-week high above that level, which may suggest buyers are taking control.
Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA in October. That may reflect a longer-term uptrend.
Third, the 8-day-exponential moving average (EMA) is above the 21-day EMA and MACD is rising. Those signals may reflect a shorter-term uptrend.
Finally, bullish price gaps after the last two quarterly reports may reveal improving fundamentals.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
USDJPY - Analysis and Potential Setups (Intraday- 10.02.25) Overall Trend & Context:
The OANDA:USDJPY pair is in an overall downtrend on the higher time frames and has reached highly significant support/demand levels. Lower time frame has given bullish indications, we can try to capitalize on this.
Technical Findings:
Price broke above the 200 EMA - this can act as dynamic support so watch current levels.
Demand zone was formed after sweeping internal liquidity (which resulted in an impulsive bullish break).
RSI shows overbought conditions - resulting in a pullback which is what we want to see to confirm price action (currently trading below the 50% level of the RSI)
Potential Scenarios:
Since we have seen a reaction off HTF supply zones we should wait for proper confirmations prior to entry.
If the demand fails, short positions should be considered - analysis will need to be adjusted to adapt to changing supply levels.
Contemplating a Pivot on Dell. DELLPivots, like fades are inherently more risky, but they must always be in the gameplay of any serious trader. They can be potentially very rewarding when they do eventuate and pose lost opportunity if ignored. We generally like at least five factors from five different perspectives to consider a position. Let's see how many this one has.
1. Momentum divergence (not the only one) on Jurik RSX
2. Volatility divergence on VZO plus offset
3. Cross of upper end of MIDAS envelope. Midas formula is based heavily on volumes.
4. Cross of both VZO and Ehlers Stochastic/RSI. This is not the vanilla Stochastic RSI calculation, after Ehlers rethought the indicator.
5. vWAP is now a support, but price action is not over extended beyond one sigma range.
There are more factors that can be put on the list, but this is not a competition - just a simple take on a stock. Manage your risk -trading is not gambling.
Launch on Serve Robotics. SERVWe are really liking the amalgamation of factors in this picture. Just have a look at that bullish candle just smashing through the MIDAS curve in green. US and vWAP offer resistance in tandem. Bollinger Band %PCT crossed to bullish and the other two oscillators below also threw of signs in tandem. High probability situation here if you are going long.