USOIL - Bullish Divergence - Support Trend LineTVC:USOIL is currently trading at a long term support trend line. Bullish divergence has also formed on the chart indicating potential bullish momentum if price can take out the lower high!
M-oscillator
$SPY May 7,2024AMEX:SPY May 7,2024
15 Minutes.
AMEX:SPY managed to stay above 510 levels.
Now we have 100 and 200 also near 510 levels.
Now holding 513 levels uptrend intact.
513 is the 61.8 % retracement for the fall 524.61 to 493.86.
510 is important because it is 38.2% retracement for the rise 599.55 to 516.61.
For the day holding 514 levels i have a target 518-519 levels. This is the number from April 11, we saw AMEX:SPY going all the way down 493 levels.
So, I expect some resistance around 519-520 levels.
I am going long around 515-515.6 levels for 519 SL 513 - 512.5.
The retracement to 515 - 515.6 is due to oscillator divergence in 15 minutes.
For two days we had a gap up we need to sort out the divergence.
Bitcoin 21 and 50 weekly moving average remain bullishThe 21 week MA was tagged last Wednesday for CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Watching the 21 week SMA & 50 week SMA can serve as a great medium term risk gauge for Bitcoin
Crosses of these moving averages have been decent 🟢buy &🔴sell signals to date
The 21 week SMA held for the 2015/17 bull run, and it holds today.
All the same I would not be surprised to see price penetrate as deep as $52,000. The 50 weekly SMA is currently at c. €43,000 (think a badass wick)
As long as these moving averages are moving up and to the right, have not been breached by price and have not crossed, the primary bullish trend is intact.
This chart would obviously need to be considered in combination with others however it is a great way to remain level headed with the long term perspective in mind. Once we start losing levels, we can start getting worried. If we get a negative cross, a reduction in spot allocation would be very wise.
Long term timeframes with these smooth moving averages can be brilliant reminders of the primary trend trajectory. Patience my friends.
Lets keep an eye on these levels
P
#Bitcoin
ETHUSDTWe can attempt to buy ETHUSDT from specified level if it break last LH , also there is bullish divergence indicate that it move upward.
SL , TP mention in chart.
NCLNCL is trading in Falling Wedge Pattern (Reversal Pattern) .
We can attempt to buy NCL from specified level as it break last LH , trendline resistance , also bullish divergence occur indicate that it move upward.
SL , TP mention in chart.
NAS100USDWe can attempt to buy NAS100USD from specified level as it break last LH , also there is bullish divergence indicate that it move upward.
SL , TP mention in chart.
MXN overvalued but not ready for long term sell.Mexican peso looks overvalued but long term sell signals are still missing. Current support is 15.79 and 17.61 as resistance. MA slow is 18.9 and MA fast is 17.8. Only sell signal is stochastic.
Resistance and MA signals might break after Mexican elections on June 2nd.
Bitcoin - Why everyone is probably wrongYou may have noticed published ideas on tradingview.com are now calling for price action to take one direction and that direction is down. Don’t take my word for it, click on BTCUSD pair to the bottom right of this screen and then ‘ideas’ then ‘Recent’. A significant number of analysts are “short” at this time.
The number of short ideas should not be surprising, there is tens of millions of dollars in short interest around the 74-75k area waiting to be liquidated.
Two falling wedge patterns are shown on the above 1-day chart. All too easily these patterns produce false breakouts. How do you verify? Verification is made in a similar way to the recently published “How to void or validate a head and shoulders pattern” (idea linked below). We achieve validation by observing the movements of the oscillators.
1) A cross up of 20 indicates momentum is returning to the market. Look left.
2) Momentum oscillators cycle from above 80 to below 20 the majority of the time between 20 to 30 days. Look left and confirm, don’t take my word for it! At this time 26 days have passed since Stochastic RSI was above 80.
3) Considering points (1) and (2) the falling wedge now has a high probability of confirming the continued uptrend.
4) The wedge target area may be forecast by measuring the flagpole height (black circles). You can observe how accurate the first wedge target was forecast using this process. The forecast for the 2nd wedge is shown, towards the 115k area.
5) The 115k target area was first forecast from the “Is Bitcoin about to rally to 110-120k” idea (linked below) in July 2022 as price action was around $18k using the same method described above.
6) When the target is reached the bull market is over. There will be calls from all quarters informing us how price action is now going to $250k and beyond. Ignore it. The next macro long opportunity will be in 2026.
Is it possible price action continues correcting from the new all time high? Sure.
Is it probable? No
Ww
How to void or validate a head and shoulders pattern
Is Bitcoin about to rally to 110-120k
Trading with RSI: The Bad, The Good and Even BetterIn this video I explain how to use RSI (Relative Strength Index) to make trading decisions. You'll learn how to properly use RSI oversold condition, combining low timeframe price action signals with high level context analysis.
Besides of explaining three different strategies (the bad, the good and even better) I'll do back-testing on historical data to demonstrate how those strategies translate into real trading results.
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
Technicals Made Easy: Technical Dissection of Nifty Hourly ChartIn The above chart you can see how Nifty follows various Technical aspects of the chart. First of all we can see a Parallel channel in which Nifty is travelling. The channel has 3 parts.
1) Channel Top.
2) Channel Bottom.
3) Mid Channel.
Channel top will always work as a resistance and Channel bottom will always will work as support. Channel Mid or Mid channel will act as support or resistance depending on where the candles are. If the candles are below the mid-line, the line will act as resistance. If the candles are above the mid-line, the line will act as support.
Similarly the 50 and 200 EMA (Mother and Father lines) have similar characteristics. If the candles are below respective Mother and father line, the lines will act as resistance. If the candles are above the EMAs the EMAs will act as supports.
In the chart we also see negative MACD crossover at one particular point and candles behaving bearishly after the same. Similarly after a positive MACD crossover the candles might behave bullishly.
Technical analysis is simple process by which you try to study the combined psychology of overall investors and how they behave at particular levels. Technical analysis in other words is graphical representation of behavioural patterns of investors, keeping historical data at the core of decision making. It is also science and not some wizardry or magic. In case you want to learn more about Technical or Techno-Funda analysis you can leave a comment below.
Long-Term SBUX long after some stabilizationWith last poor earnings, Starbucks NASDAQ:SBUX generates my favorite long-term signal for potential long-term buying (Bollinger Bands torn & RSI oversold on weekly basis)
If the company gets its problems under control, there could be a reversal soon
After such negative earnings, however, the price still needs to stabilize somewhat
The stabilization of NASDAQ:META in the second picture took a week (picture 2) and of NASDAQ:NFLX a few weeks longer (picture 3) until the bottom was found after poor earnings
I will take a closer look at the earnings and the reasons for the strong sell-off of NASDAQ:SBUX and will probably buy a larger position in the next few trading days
The ideal price would be between $65 (resistance from 2015 and 2017) and $68.39 (low from May 2022)
EURJPY - Bullish Divergence - Trend Line SupportFX:EURJPY has retraced to a daily/4 hr trend line support level after creating a higher high in a bullish trend. Bullish divergence has also formed on the chart indicating good potential for a continuation of the bullish rally!
$SPY May 3, 2024AMEX:SPY May 3, 2024
15 Minutes.
Last 2 days AMEX:SPY managed to sort out the moving averages issues due to sudden up and down movement on May 1, 2024.
Now all moving averages have converged, 50 averages are around 502.5 levels.
So, for the day if I consider the last rise from 501.34 to 505.88, holding 503 levels I will have a target of 506 - 506.5 to 510 levels.
My SL will be 500.
If I consider the rise from 493.86 to 510.75, we can see that 61.8% retracement has managed to hold twice around 499.5 levels. Thus, I expect a move 510 levels only.
SHIBUSDTWe can attempt to short SHIBUSDT from specified level if it break last HL , also there is bearish divergence indicate that it move downward.
SL , TP mention in chart.
BTC major weekly support Hit - All levels on chartBTC hits major weekly support.
We might face a deeper correction up to the 38k levels.
Watch for weekly closing wicks
On the daily SMA 200 is pointing 48k levels. If you take a look ok the weekly we can see it pointing to deeper levels around 36-38 levels.
We can start DCA from the 57k support.
BTC can try to sweep lower buy order and bulls should breach -69k levels before any bullish continuation.
More downside for XPTUSD (Platinum)XTPUSD has been rallying ever since it broke out of its two week sell off a couple days ago but there are now signs showing that the upward momentum could be coming to a end.
Technical : The 3 EMA is crossing over the 10 EMA to the downside while at the same time the Stochastic is crossing the 50% mark to the downside as well. These Bearish confluences are happening while we are nearing the bottom Trendline, making a breakdown higher probability. Target a 1-1.5% move down from your entry/break
Fed Day and market priced inToday we woke up with a SP Futures Market down on Fed day. The previous days the market was trading in a narrow range, yesterday we saw it crashing down anticipating the Fed day today, and this morning it took another dent until the level reached what we can see in the chart, a touch over the 100 ma support. Keep in mind that after hitting the ATH recently, it went down to this support. The market reacted well and recovered around 50% of the move. Today it´s going down again to the same point, which is interpreted as a test of the support levels. My forecast here is that the market has shaken the tree and is looking for another trip to the ATH levels.
We have a positive momentum divergence, Support Line at a strong moving average. It is normal to see a lot of volatility on days like today, so buckle up and enjoy the roller coaster.
TAP ( Coors Molson Miller ) Ready for Bullish Continuation?On the daily chart, TAP was on a good trend up heading into earnings which were favorable.
It is consolidated since just after earnings in a " high tight bull flag pattern" Volume has been
healthy with many buyers and seller trading shares in a tight range channel. The stochastic
RSI is now at about 20% indicating TAP is in the oversold / undervalued area. The optimized
artificial intelligence moving average indicator shows parallel rises in both the short and long
MAs ( neither divergence nor convergence just consistent ). This is a minor healthy pullback
and a good entry point.
Fundamentally, the summer beer- drinking season will soon arrive. TAP may be benefitting
from the BUD backlash over the Bud Lite endorsement controversy.
My call options have been appreciated 50% in the past 2 1/2 weeks ( 4% per trading day ).
I will roll them into the call options expiring 9/15/23. I consider TAP to be a steady
consistent gainer and likely more or less recession-proof.
Seen this exact setup at previous major tops I have analyzed the SPX using 2 common indicators; i.e. RSI and breadth above 200d SMA. A very similar setup was seen just before the 2018 correction and the 2020 crash. This recent rally of past 5 months is bigger and more irrational than the previous two rallies. Thus, we should expect a bigger move down over the long-term.
Price action correction to 31.5k** Swing trade opportunity **
On the above daily chart price action has enjoyed a 40% move despite the calls from camp bear. A number of reasons now exist to be short, including:
1) A sell signal prints (not shown).
2) Regular bearish divergence.
3) Failed MFI support.
4) Stochastic RSI crosses down 80. Look left for what happens next (blue circles)
Lastly, RSI is overbought. Now it is true to say the overbought condition can remain so for an extended period of time. IF the pervious overbought condition is to be repeated then a correction will not be seen until around mid-November. 36k is expected to be strong resistance (see 10k idea).
Is it possible price action continues up like a lot of tradingivew.com ideas are suggesting? Sure.
Is it probable. 17% probability according to analysis.
Ww
PS: Before asking, no the alt-token market will not get destroyed. Some alts are overbought and others will do well from the Bitcoin correction. Which is which…
Type: Short. 36k entry.
Risk: 6%
Timeframe for short: Between now and mid-November
Return: That’s up to you.
SPX500 slips on higher labour costsThe SPX500 has lost momentum since yesterday. If the hourly RSI remains below 50, we may see lower prices in the short-term.
Keep an eye on the daily RSI because if that slips it will affect the higher time frame's momentum.
This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”).
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Tencent (700.HK) Short: Completion of 5 waves structureTencent short based on:
1. Completion of 5 waves structure.
2. Fibonacci Extension level from wave 1.
3. RSI divergence.
4. 5-min corrective wave up.
