$SPY October 18, 2024AMEX:SPY October 18, 2024
15 Minutes.
One of those flip flop days.
SL was hit.
At the moment below all moving averages in 15 minutes except 200.
At the moment looks like a double top in 15 minutes supported by Eliott oscillator divergence.
I prefer not to trade today.
Bias is downside towards 580 levels.
M-oscillator
A Full Scope View of The Magnificent 7Today, we look at the Mag 7 via the following methods.
MAC (Moving Average Channel).
Valuation with Trend.
High Timeframe Divergence.
To summarize, overall, these markets are generally bullish. I outline areas of interest where I will be looking for trades to the long side.
Have a great weekend.
Short EUR/AUD setup looking for retest of 1.6000Thursday's bearish engulfing candle has seen the price move below 1.6188, a level that has acted as both support and resistance over recent weeks.
If the price can remain beneath this level into the European open, consider shorting below with a stop above for protection.
The initial target would be 1.6115. If that were to give way, a retest of 1.6000 could be on the cards.
Good luck!
DS
GBPJPY bearish for 150 pipsIn a bearish trade setup on GBP/JPY with a 150-pip profit target and a 50-pip stop loss, you’re aiming for a reward-to-risk ratio of 3:1. This means that for every 50 pips you risk, you’re potentially gaining 150 pips, which is a favorable setup.
Here’s a detailed breakdown of this trade idea:
1. Setting the Profit Target (150 Pips)
A 150-pip profit target is quite common in GBP/JPY due to its volatility. This target should be set near a significant support level or other technical factors such as:
A previous major swing low.
A Fibonacci extension level (like the 127.2% or 161.8%).
A psychological level or round number (e.g., 180.00, 179.50).
GBP/JPY often moves in wide ranges, so a 150-pip move in a single trading day or session is realistic, especially if the market is trending strongly.
2. Defining the Stop Loss (50 Pips)
A 50-pip stop loss should ideally be placed above a significant resistance level:
A recent swing high.
Above a key moving average (such as the 50 or 100 MA on the 1H or 4H chart).
Above a Fibonacci retracement level (such as the 38.2% or 50% retracement of the latest downtrend).
You want to make sure the stop isn’t too tight, giving the trade some room to breathe, but also protecting you in case of a reversal.
Bitcoin ending consolidation faseThe price is breaking out its downward trend line while above support zone between 60k-65k
The RSI is confirming price action as it has rebound from 40 and is back at the bullish zone, just as it did back in september of 2023
Lets see if CRYPTOCAP:BTC still has legs and makes a new high above 72k to all-time-highs
AUDUSD - Buy StopThe dollar index is bullish and the australian dollar index is bearish which suggests that there should be bullish momemtum of AUDUSD pair.
The bullish divergence is also formed and the current price action is at 78% FIB retracement which further strengthens our idea. We'll go with two trades, first with TP1 and other we'll trail.
It is also likely that trade may not trigger and price forms another lower high which will also be a good sign to buy because of the strong support.
USD/CAD generates sell signal after massive winning streak The USD/CAD epic winning streak is over, delivering an obvious topping signal on Tuesday.
There’s a couple of options available to traders: the first would be to sell now with a stop either above 1.3792 or Monday’s high of 1.3806. Possible targets include 1.3700 or 1.3647, depending on the risk-reward ratio you’re looking for.
The other would be to wait for a potential push towards 1.3792, allowing for a stop to be placed above Monday’s high or 1.3839 for protection. Targets would be identical to option one.
Momentum indicators have yet to confirm the price signal, but may encourage more traders to join the move if they too are triggered.
With no major data set for release in the US or Canada or Wednesday, traders may begin looking towards the US jobless claims, retail sales and industrial production reports on Thursday.
As I’ve discussed in the note attached, it would not surprise to see another ugly jobless claims report given disruptions caused by Hurricane Helene and Milton on the US Gulf states, creating downside risks for US bond yields and dollar.
Good luck!
DS
$SPY October 16, 2024AMEX:SPY October 16, 2024
AMEX:SPY retraced to 578.5 levels.
Moving averages gaps are reduced.
Downtrend as it is below all moving averages except 200 averages.
For the rise 566.63 to 585.27 38.2 retracement done.
For the last rise from 574.49 to 585.27 61.8% I done.
Hence it is crucial for 4SPY to hold 576-577 levels today being 200 averages in 15 minutes and fib numbers.
So, for the day for the fall 587.27 to 578.54 i will short at 583 levels for targets up to 576-577 levels. SL 584 with bar close near top of bar.
The number 576-577 also happens to be 9-day average in daily. so i expect some more retracement.
Traders could veer towards the yen with risk events loomingIt is no coincidence that VIX futures have been creeping higher in recent weeks despite Wall Street hitting record highs, as traders are presumably hedging downside risk as we approach the US election. And that means it may not take much to spook traders out of bullish bets with markets at frothy levels, and that could see the yen strengthen as a safety play. Matt Simpson takes a technical look at yen pairs of interest.
BTC Bounce from $58,000: Heading Towards ?I've been closely tracking Bitcoin's price action, and my latest analysis suggests that we may be witnessing a significant bounce from the $58,000 level, a strong support zone. After a recent dip, BTC is currently trading at $65,655, and based on key technical indicators, I expect it to rally toward $74,000 with a couple weeks.
however It's only a matter of price breaking above the 67000k resistance level as shown on chart. So this is a key level to watch
Key factors driving this prediction:
Support at $58,000:
This level has historically acted as a strong floor for Bitcoin, with previous bounces leading to upward moves to retest 63k +- 1000points resistance range.
Volume and Momentum:
Increasing trading volume and momentum indicators are pointing to a potential upward continuation.
Moving Averages:
BTC is currently holding above key moving averages, reinforcing the possibility of bullish momentum.
Market Sentiment:
With recent developments in the fundamental space, sentiment is leaning bullish, adding further conviction to the potential for this move.
If this analysis plays out, we could see BTC pushing through resistance levels and reaching $74,000 in a couple weeks time frame ideally. Keep an eye on these key levels as the price action unfolds.
MCG
ETH - The Bullish & Bearish CaseToday we take a look at ETH and lay out a variety of trade ideas.
MONTHLY: From the Monthly perspective, ETH remains very Bullish. Essentially, going long ETH anywhere at or below the low of the Monthly MAC is a legitimate spot to buy. The target based on the Monthly chart is around 3,400 (approximately 30% above current price level). From an investment perspective, this is a great area to go long ETH.
WEEKLY: From the Weekly perspective, ETH remains Bearish, as we have not had a confirmed bullish trend change. Right now, ETH is trading at the Weekly MAC high, which is a legitimate place to look for new short entries, or to take profits from any longs taken at recent weekly lows. There is currently H6 bearish divergence setup, but not triggered. If it triggers, I will be shorting ETH to a target of the Weekly MAC low (2,337).
DAILY: From the Daily perspective, ETH remains Bearish. However, we are getting a potential bullish trend change (but not triggered/confirmed). There is H1 bearish divergence setting up right now, and if it triggers, the short trade target would be the Daily MAC low at 2,421.
As you can see, if you are an investor, the current price levels are reasonable areas to load up to the long side. However, the Weekly and Daily are still bearish until bullish confirmation. Daily is in the process of confirming bullish, but not yet. Day trades and shorter term swing trades to the short side are still valid.
Have a great week.
BTC Bounce from $58,000: Heading Towards ?I've been closely tracking Bitcoin's price action, and my latest analysis suggests that we may be witnessing a significant bounce from the $58,000 level, a strong support zone. After a recent dip, BTC is currently trading at $65,655, and based on key technical indicators, I expect it to rally toward $74,000 with a couple weeks.
however It's only a matter of price breaking above the 67000k resistance level as shown on chart. So this is a key level to watch
Key factors driving this prediction:
Support at $58,000:
This level has historically acted as a strong floor for Bitcoin, with previous bounces leading to upward moves to retest 63k +- 1000points resistance range.
Volume and Momentum:
Increasing trading volume and momentum indicators are pointing to a potential upward continuation.
Moving Averages:
BTC is currently holding above key moving averages, reinforcing the possibility of bullish momentum.
Market Sentiment:
With recent developments in the fundamental space, sentiment is leaning bullish, adding further conviction to the potential for this move.
If this analysis plays out, we could see BTC pushing through resistance levels and reaching $74,000 in a couple weeks time frame ideally. Keep an eye on these key levels as the price action unfolds.
MCG
NZDCAD - Bullish Seasonals - Bullish ContinuationFX:NZDCAD - October has been a positive month for this pair 80% of the time in the last 14 years. Recently, price retested the weekly higher low (block dotted line), formed bullish divergence and continued the bullish momentum! I am expecting a bullish month for NZDCAD as per seasonal behavior and current price action!
Prepping for a EUR/USD squeeze given bearish sentimentEveryone wants to dunk on the euro and buy dollars right now, explaining why EUR/USD continues to grind lower. With signs of US economic exceptionalism evident again, the number of Fed rate cuts expected this cycle continues to dwindle just as the amount of easing from the ECB ramps up.
USD looks great, EUR does not. But that’s now priced in, meaning we may need to see a continuation of those trends to see this downside flush extend. Because if they don’t, EUR/USD could be due a squeeze.
With the main risks events this week arriving on Thursday with the ECB interest rate decision, which is nearly fully priced for a 25 basis point cut, and jobless claims and retail sales figures in the US, there must surely be a temptation among traders who are short to reduce or close their bearish positions, suggesting we may see some form of reversal.
On the charts, EUR/USD finds itself back in familiar territory, testing and bouncing from a long-running downtrend dating back to July 2023. Given the initial interaction with the level, which has been respected all bar one false break in August, it provides a potential level for a long setup looking for some short-covering and/or squeeze.
Those considering longs could buy ahead of the downtrend with a stop below either Monday’s low around 1.0890 or the 200-day moving average located at 1.08743. Potential trade targets include 1.0955 or 1.1000.
Momentum indicators such as RSI (14) and MACD continue to generate bearish signals, meaning for the trade to succeed, it will need to go against the prevailing trend. That underlines why risk management should be front and centre of those considering the setup.
Good luck!
DS