Technical Analysis: Bitcoin (BTC) – Regular Bearish DivergenceTechnical Analysis: Bitcoin (BTC) – Regular Bearish Divergence
Hello!
T he recent technical analysis for Bitcoin (BTC) highlights the presence of a regular bearish divergence between the price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator. This divergence, marked by the yellow lines on the chart, signals a potential reversal in the short-term trend and suggests a bearish outlook for the coming days or weeks.
Understanding the Divergence
A regular bearish divergence occurs when the price of an asset forms higher highs, while the RSI forms lower highs. This indicates weakening momentum, even as the price reaches new peaks. The yellow lines on the TradingView chart clearly illustrate this pattern for Bitcoin.
Price Action: Bitcoin has recorded higher highs on the price chart.
RSI Behavior: The RSI indicator, however, has failed to mirror this pattern, instead forming lower highs. This discrepancy points to diminishing bullish momentum and the likelihood of an upcoming price correction.
Short-Term Bearish Implications
Given the regular bearish divergence, Bitcoin’s price is expected to experience a pullback in the short term. Traders should be cautious, as this divergence often precedes a period of downward movement. Key support levels, such as $93,000 and $92,000, should be monitored closely to assess the depth of the correction.
Long-Term Bullish Outlook
While the short-term trend leans bearish, the long-term perspective for Bitcoin remains bullish. Several macroeconomic factors, including increasing institutional adoption, favorable regulatory developments, and a growing use case for cryptocurrencies, continue to support the long-term upward trajectory of BTC. This macroeconomic backdrop suggests that any short-term price corrections could present buying opportunities for long-term investors.
Key Takeaways
The yellow lines on the TradingView chart highlight a regular bearish divergence between Bitcoin’s price and the RSI indicator.
This divergence signals a likely short-term bearish trend, with a potential price correction on the horizon.
Long-term trends remain bullish, supported by macroeconomic factors and Bitcoin’s robust fundamentals.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Regards,
Ely
M-oscillator
Bitcoin: The Cyclic Pattern Unfolding Again?Analyzing the current BTC weekly chart reveals striking similarities to the past, specifically the cycle seen at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024. Let’s break it down step by step.
1. Price Movement Comparison
Late 2023 vs. Late 2024: At the end of 2023, Bitcoin experienced a sharp rally of around 65%, moving from the lows to a significant peak. Fast forward to late 2024, and we see a nearly identical pattern—again, approximately 65% growth from the bottom to the recent high. The symmetry is hard to ignore.
2. WaveFlow Indicator
On both occasions, the WaveFlow indicator paints an eerily similar picture. It shows a strong push from the lows to the highs, followed by an expected pullback before another rally. If history repeats itself, the current setup implies that BTC will form a second peak following an intermediate bottom in the near term.
3. PrimeMomentum Long-Term Signal
The red diamond signal from the PrimeMomentum Long-Term Signal BTC indicator appears in a nearly identical spot:
The beginning of 2024: Red diamond signaled a top before a significant correction.
Late 2024: The same signal has just appeared, aligning with a possible cyclical correction phase.
4. PrimeMomentum Oscillator
At the bottom of the chart, the PrimeMomentum oscillator shows behavior that mirrors the end of 2023. This resemblance reinforces the idea that Bitcoin’s price action is following a cyclic pattern.
5. Expectations and Forecast
January Correction: Based on these indicators and historical patterns, we anticipate a pullback at the beginning of January 2025, targeting a mid-range consolidation or support zone.
February–March Rally: Following the correction in the second half of January, a rally is expected, peaking around March 2025, similar to early 2024’s price action.
Post-March Decline: After March, we could see another downward phase, mirroring the price behavior in mid-2024.
Conclusion: The Power of Cyclicality
This chart showcases the undeniable rhythm of Bitcoin’s cyclicality. Indicators like WaveFlow and PrimeMomentum provide clear parallels between the current market state and historical movements. If the cycle repeats as expected:
Short-Term: Prepare for a correction.
Mid-Term: Watch for a strong rally.
Long-Term: Plan for another cyclical downturn.
The data strongly suggests that Bitcoin’s market structure continues to adhere to predictable cyclical trends. With this knowledge, traders can better anticipate key market movements and position themselves accordingly.
SENDAI - BUY ON DIP ?SENDAI - CURRENT PRICE : RM0.570
SENDAI is uptrend for long term view as the share price is trading above 200-day EMA. In short and medium term the trend is sideways. However, I expect the stock may trend higher in the upcoming sessions as there are several bullish scenario appears on the chart.
i) The share price manage to breakout 50-day EMA
ii) Price bounce from support level of ICHIMOKU CLOUD indicates that buying interest is sufficiently strong to overcome selling pressure
iii) CHIKOU SPAN also manage to bounce from CLOUD support level
iv) RSI (above 50) heading upwards and stochastic oscillator is in oversold zone
v) High trading volume than previous sessions.
Technically it is a BUY ON DIP for this stock.
ENTRY PRICE : RM0.560 - RM0.575
TARGET PRICE : RM0.625 and RM0.690
STOP LOSS : RM0.530
TAYOR !
USDCAD Wave Analysis 30 December 2024
- USDCAD reversed from resistance zone
- Likely to fall to support level 1.4400
USDCAD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance zone surrounding the major long-term resistance level 1.4400 (which stopped the sharp uptrend at the start of 2020) intersecting with the upper weekly Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.4400 stopped the previous medium-term impulse wave (5).
Given the strength of the support level 1.4400 and the overbought reading on the weekly Stochastic indicator, USDCAD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.4315.
BAC | BIG Drop for Next YearSimilar distribution pattern to 2022 Feb drop, price continues to make Higher Highs and indicators make Lower Highs while trading in overbought zones
Dont think its the best time to invest but to rather Trade instead with how high price is.
I'm looking at about 40% in price fall by February like the last time but for now long positions may be better at $43, and then price topping out at $50.
To prolong this pattern but not necessarily invalidate it I need to see a breakout above $50 and some type of quick retest with price action overshooting to the high end of the Major Resistance Zone $55, then we can end up seeing more than a 40% drop.
GBPUSD Wave Analysis 27 December 2024
- GBPUSD reversed from support level 1.2495
- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.2625
GBPUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 1.2495 (which has been steadily reversing the pair from May) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.2495 stopped the previous medium-term impulse wave (3).
Given the strength of the support level 1.2495 and the oversold reading on the daily Stochastic indicator, GBPUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.2625 (former support from the end of November).
Nat Gas Thursday 26 DecPrice is trading in a new territory. The margin required to enter into a trade has increased as the price has increased by 70%. Now you can't buy big quantity as fluctuation has risen, thus making stop loss quite large. So if your risk appetite is not that big you should think of bringing down position size. But if you're greed driven person this is your moment. You can make big bucks by trading just one big contract without scaling into a trade. Just keep trailing your stop and the rest will be taken care of. Fluctuations are big but it only happens at the end of a trend.
One more thing if you trade just to make money then this market is not for you. You don't belong here. Go someplace else. There are million ways to make money. Pick one and love it.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence MACD A Comprehensive GuideMastering the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): A Comprehensive Guide
Understanding the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): A Beginner’s Guide
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a popular and powerful momentum and trend-following indicator used by traders across various markets. Developed by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s, MACD helps traders identify potential trend reversals, momentum strength, and buy or sell signals.
What is MACD?
MACD is based on the relationship between two moving averages of an asset’s price. It consists of three main components:
MACD Line:
Calculated as the difference between the 12-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 26-period EMA.
Signal Line:
A 9-period EMA of the MACD Line.
Serves as a trigger for buy or sell signals.
Histogram:
The difference between the MACD Line and the Signal Line.
Visual representation of momentum changes.
How to Interpret MACD
Crossovers:
Bullish Crossover: When the MACD Line crosses above the Signal Line, it signals upward momentum and is often interpreted as a buy signal.
Bearish Crossover: When the MACD Line crosses below the Signal Line, it indicates downward momentum and is often seen as a sell signal.
Centerline Crossovers:
When the MACD Line crosses above the zero line, it indicates bullish momentum.
When the MACD Line crosses below the zero line, it signals bearish momentum.
Divergence:
Bullish Divergence: Occurs when the price makes lower lows, but the MACD makes higher lows. This can indicate a potential upward reversal.
Bearish Divergence: Occurs when the price makes higher highs, but the MACD makes lower highs. This can suggest a potential downward reversal.
Strengths of MACD
Versatile: Combines trend-following and momentum analysis.
Easy to Use: Simple to interpret for traders of all skill levels.
Effective in Trending Markets: Provides clear signals during strong trends.
Limitations of MACD
Lagging Indicator: Since it relies on moving averages, MACD may provide signals after a trend has already started.
False Signals: In sideways or choppy markets, MACD can produce misleading crossovers.
Best Practices for Using MACD
Combine with Other Indicators:
Use MACD with support and resistance levels, RSI, or Bollinger Bands for confirmation of signals.
Combine it with volume analysis to validate momentum strength.
Adjust Periods for Your Strategy:
Shorten the EMA periods (e.g., 8, 18, and 6) for more responsive signals in fast-moving markets.
Lengthen the periods (e.g., 21, 50, and 9) for smoother signals in slower markets.
Understand Market Context:
Avoid relying solely on MACD in range-bound markets where false signals are more common.
Example of MACD in Action
Imagine a stock is in an uptrend, and the MACD Line crosses above the Signal Line while the histogram turns positive. This is a bullish signal suggesting that the upward momentum is strengthening. Conversely, if the MACD Line crosses below the Signal Line during a downtrend, it signals that bearish momentum may continue.
Conclusion
The MACD is a robust indicator that helps traders identify trends, momentum shifts, and potential buy/sell opportunities. While it’s easy to use, its effectiveness improves when combined with other technical tools and a solid understanding of market dynamics. As always, backtest your strategies and practice using the MACD on historical data before applying it to live trades.
18% gain in GCILThe company has successfully broke out the accumulation zone and now poised to make new HHs and HLs.
Entry can be planned on current rates or post closing 13.86. This will trigger the upside towards 21.4 as per the bullish flag projection while exit as per the trade plan is around 20
SL can be placed at 13.6
KSE 100 index - Correction Underway!The index after making HH @ 117039, has gone into correction, the index has retraced to 0.5 level of FIB today, another possible retracement could be till 102,000, in worst case scenario, it will be retraced to around 100k
The index as per my analysis is likely to make a reversal from these levels as 21 moving average has been tested !
Stay tuned for more updates. Keep your SL on all your stocks in place to secure your profits.
HOOD 5/10/2022HOOD
This HOOD will be snipped
HOOD is currently in an existing downtrend.
I reached All-time lows in Jan.’22 and has been moving sideways between 10.86 – 15.14 since.
April ’22, price broke down from range signaling continuation of downtrend.
Price then pulled back to previous support at 10.86 and rejected it turning previous support into resistance.
MACD is in bearish territory and has also cross its signal bearish.
This is my cue to enter trade short.
Entering trade short.
Entry: 9.27
Stoploss: 11.23
Target: 6.58, +28.85%, 1.35 RR ratio
AMZN 6/6/2022AMZN
Jeff Bezos sold at the top and bought a yacht while The Jeff Bozos the clowns will buy the stock split thinking they’re getting a good deal.
That last leg of AMZN Uptrend which respected 50ema, started April ’20 and topped out Sept.’20. It closed below the 50ema that Sept. and price entered a Sideways market
AMZN moved sideways from Sept.’20 thru Jan.’22. During this time, Good ‘ol Jeff Bezos jumped ship Nov.5th ’21 @ 179 and jumped into an enormous yacht. The sly dog knew what was coming and exited at the top.
Jan’22 price broke down from this sideways range and confirmed the range to be a Distribution stage. Price fell from 165 down to 136. During this time, we also had Death Cross between the 50 & 200 ema to further signal the bearish conditions.
Price pulled back from 136 twice to previous Support looking to turn it into resistance. The market was very nice to the “investor”, gave them two chances to exit.
On the second pullback to resistance, we also had an Overbought Stochastic reading. This was our 1st entry to enter trade short. This short entry saw price move from 167 down to 102. This breakdown saw price make a lower low and confirmed the start of the downtrend for AMZN.
From the lower low made at 102, price pulled back to the 50ema which is acting as Dynamic Resistance level. Currently, we also have an Overbought Stochastic reading. This is the second entry to trade short. Downtrend + Pullback to resistance + Overbought Stochastic = Short Trade Entry
Entering trade short.
Entry: 124.79
Stoploss: 139
Target #1: 101.61, 18.56%, 1.63 RR ratio
Target #2: 83.86, 32.79%, 2.87 RR ratio
FL 9/14/2022
FL
Daily chart analysis
FL has been in a downtrend for quite some time now.
It has now pulled back to the downtrend line it has created. This area will be considered an area of value.
We have stochastic reading just coming down from overbought
We also have the MACD just crossing under its signal.
Downtrend + Overbought stochastic + Pullback to area of value = Short trade entry
Entering trade short
Entry: 37.53
Stop loss: 41.92(-11.70%)
Target: 24.76, +34.03%, 2.91 RR ratio
BTC correcting, This isn't a crash smmfhCrash talk🫠 Talk of manipulation and fake outs should have been anticipated weeks ago. Markets refusing to react appropriately after consecutive weeks of high cpi readings and then a super hawkish Jerome Powell speech was crazy work. Bitcoin is still in bull territory for this consolidation range. 🫠 Many are calling crash already, lol. A 20% correction would be at 86k which is where the bottom of the consolidation is at on daily timeframe. That wouldn't even be considered a crash as 20% is normal for btc in bull environments.
Areas of interets: Bullish mitigation block (the gray rectangle).
Vwap: (green)Anchored below the Nov. 5th trump pump candle which is being tested
50 ema: (dark blue ema) being tested for first time on daily time frame
💡I also anchored a volume profile at the Nov. 5th trump pump and value area low also coincidences with the areas of interest.
💡Daily stochastic is oversold riding the floor and the daily rsi is below 50 with chance of making bullish divergences with prior lows
The Relative Strength Index (RSI): A Beginner’s GuideThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the most widely used technical indicators in trading. Developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1978, it helps traders evaluate the momentum of a market and identify overbought or oversold conditions.
What is RSI?
RSI is an oscillator that measures the speed and magnitude of price changes over a specific period, typically 14 periods. It provides a value between 0 and 100, which helps traders gauge whether an asset is overbought or oversold.
Overbought: RSI above 70 suggests the asset might be overbought and due for a correction.
Oversold: RSI below 30 indicates the asset might be oversold and due for a rebound.
The RSI Formula
The RSI is calculated as:
Where:
RS= Average Gain of Up Periods (over the lookback period) / Average Loss of Down Periods (over the lookback period)
How to Interpret RSI
1. Overbought and Oversold Levels:
- When RSI crosses above 70, it may signal that the asset is overbought and could experience a price decline.
- When RSI drops below 30, it may indicate that the asset is oversold and could see a price increase.
2. Divergence:
- Bullish Divergence: When the price makes lower lows, but RSI makes higher lows, it suggests a potential upward reversal.
- Bearish Divergence: When the price makes higher highs, but RSI makes lower highs, it indicates a potential downward reversal.
3. Centerline Crossover:
- RSI crossing above 50 is often viewed as a bullish signal, indicating upward momentum.
- RSI crossing below 50 suggests bearish momentum.
Strengths of RSI
- Versatility: Works well in a variety of markets (stocks, forex, crypto, etc.) and timeframes.
- Simplicity: Easy to interpret for beginners.
- Divergences: Offers insight into potential trend reversals.
Limitations of RSI
- False Signals**: RSI can provide false overbought/oversold signals in strong trending markets.
- Lagging Indicator: Like most indicators, RSI relies on historical data, which may delay signals.
Best Practices for Using RSI
1. Combine with Other Indicators:
- Use RSI with trend-following indicators like Moving Averages or MACD to filter out false signals.
- Pair it with support and resistance levels to validate potential reversals.
2. Adjust the Period:
- Shorten the period (e.g., 7 or 9) for more sensitive signals.
- Lengthen the period (e.g., 20 or 30) for smoother, less frequent signals.
3. Context Matters:
- In a trending market, RSI may remain overbought or oversold for extended periods. Use it cautiously in such conditions.
Example of RSI in Action
Imagine a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin has been rallying for several days, and the RSI rises above 70. This suggests that Bitcoin might be overbought, and a pullback could occur soon. However, if the market trend is strong, Bitcoin’s RSI could stay above 70 for an extended period. Combining RSI with trend analysis or support/resistance levels can provide better insights.
Conclusion
The RSI is a powerful tool for traders seeking to understand market momentum and potential reversal points. While it’s simple to use, its effectiveness increases when combined with other indicators and market context. As always, practice using RSI on historical data before applying it to live trades, and remember that no single indicator guarantees success
Nobody appreciates it !!!The price is within an ascending wedge and this can be a bullish signal for Dogecoin. However, we need to wait for this wedge to be broken and then wait for the price to rise. Currently, the price can be bearish because more funds have been injected into Bitcoin to allow Bitcoin to find more stability in the coming days.
Give me some energy !!
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⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!