$SPY April 17, 2024AMEX:SPY April 17, 2024
15 Minutes.
Consolidation day.
Today is Wednesday. I am expecting a one sided move.
For the fall 506.5 to 502.61, AMEX:SPY retraced 78% and fell at close.
For the two lows 502.43 and 502.22 we have oscillator divergence.
I believe the uptrend for that divergence is over from 502.2 to 506.
Today action will be above 507 or below 502.
My upside target is limited to 509-510 levels.
My downside target is 497-500.
I prefer to short at the moment.
I generally go long ony when AMEX:SPY is above all moving averages.
M-oscillator
SOUN Analysis: Support Zone Rebound Potential with RSI UptrendTicker: SOUN (SoundHound AI, Inc.)
Current Price: $4.04
Analysis:
Support Zone and Historical Context:
SOUN is currently within a potential support zone, outlined by a purple rectangle from $3.75 to $4.35. This zone has been historically significant, previously acting as both support and resistance levels. Notably, a breakout from this zone led to a high of $10.25 before retracing back to $3.75, followed by the recent rebound to $4.04.
Technical Indicators:
- 200 SMA (Magenta Line): The price is nearing the 200-day Simple Moving Average on the 4hr chart, adding to the zone's importance.
- RSI Trend (Grey Line): RSI stands at 36.46, showing an upward trend and indicating growing buying pressure.
Analysis and Strategy:
SOUN's rebound from the $3.75 level and the rising RSI suggest potential for a support zone rebound. Traders might consider watching for confirmation signals, especially near the 4hr 200 SMA, for possible bullish opportunities.
A break above the upper boundary of the support zone, around $4.35, could signal a bullish continuation, targeting higher levels.
Conclusion:
SOUN's technical setup points to a support zone rebound potential, with RSI strength supporting the bullish outlook. Traders are advised to monitor price action, particularly around the support zone's upper boundary, for potential entry opportunities aligned with the ongoing uptrend in RSI.
$SPY April 16, 2024AMEX:SPY April 16, 2024
15 Minutes.
As expected 505 levels in SPY. Opened gapped up.
So after the first 15 minutes a sell below was triggered for 515 was a level to short as planned.
As expected 50 day average was touched in daily.
Now for the rise from 493 AMEX:SPY has retraced 61.8% levels.
Crucial to hold for any uptrend to continue.
If this level is not held we have to consider the rise from 409 to 524 levels. For that 23.6% retracement is 493 levels.
It is also 100 averages in daily.
At the moment bias is only on the downside. AMEX:SPY below all kinds of moving averages in multiple time frames.
For the day considering the fall 512.62 to 503.58 508-509 will be a good level to short SL 511 for 497-500 as target.
USDUSD Oil Prices react to Middle EastOn Thursday January 11th ( earlier today) WTI Crude prices gyrated widely
likely in reaction to US /UK intervention on the terrorists who seized a tanker on the behalf of
Iraq in the Red Sea / Suez Canal area putting shipping and supply concerns into the oil industry
to offset any weak demand. The 15 minute chart shows a megaphone pattern as a
demonstration of waves of relative volatility in price action. I have a position shorting oil
and will now close that position as I see a long entry developing here. US companies that use
rail and pipeline matching domestic production to consumption are less impacted by this
oceanic shipping issue. I will focus on them especially. OXY is at the top of the list and then
MRO.
Can Lennar Hang On?Homebuilder Lennar has been grinding higher this year, but some traders may expect a breakdown.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the rising trendline along lows in January, February and March. Prices have sat there for the last four sessions with little sign of a bounce, which may suggest it’s losing relevance as support.
Second, the 50-day simple moving average is in the same area. That could give extra weight to the current zone and confirm a potential bearish move.
Third, MACD is falling.
Finally, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) crossed below the 21-day EMA last week for the first time since early November. That may suggest the short-term trend has turned negative.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
INTC Analysis: Potential Rebound from Support towards ResistanceTicker: INTC (Intel Corporation)
Current Price: $36.49
Support and Resistance Zones:
INTC is currently showing signs of bouncing off a crucial support zone, delineated by a purple rectangle spanning from $35.50 to $37. This area has historically attracted buying interest and is pivotal for the stock's current movement.
Looking ahead, we have identified a resistance zone marked by another purple rectangle, ranging from $41.50 to $42. If the bullish momentum continues, this zone could be the next target for potential price movement.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI (Grey Line): The RSI stands at approximately 32.23, suggesting a slightly oversold condition. This indicates a potential for upward movement as buying interest may increase.
- ADX (White Line): The ADX is at 27.39, indicating moderate strength in the current trend. A rising ADX could signify increasing momentum in the stock's movement.
Analysis and Strategy:
INTC started the day at $36.02 and is currently showing resilience around the support zone. The convergence of the RSI near oversold levels and the ADX showing moderate trend strength implies a potential rebound scenario.
Traders may consider monitoring price action around the support zone for confirmation of a bounce. If the price shows strength and breaks above the resistance zone at $37, it could signal a bullish continuation towards the $41.50 to $42 range.
Conclusion:
INTC's current technical setup suggests a possible rebound from the support zone towards resistance levels. Traders should remain vigilant for confirmation signals and adjust their strategies accordingly to capitalize on potential price movements within these key zones.
TQQQ Tech 3X levarged ETF LONGOn this 15 minute chart, TQQQ is in an anchored VWAP band and volume profile breakout.
Near to the end of the regular market, the RSI indicator ran from deep oversold. After hours,
NVDA reported a sizable earnings beat. The AI machine learning and backtesting indicator
forecasts and uptrend continuation. I will get call options targeting $58 for Friday's expiration.
This is a risky play, price trend could reverse and there could be no time left to recover from
that reversal. The rewards for the trade going right could easily exceed 100%.
USOUSD rising for LONGUSOUSD after its minor correction on the 15-minute chart is resuming its
bullish trend with an engulfing green bar and confirmatory indicators
including an uptick in the postive directional index and on the BB a
move from a bounce near to the basis band toward the upper bands.
I will go long on leveraged forex.
Can Bitcoin break resistance and head to 75K LONGBTCUSD is impending on its third attempt to break through the resistance zone of 69-70K,
having hit about 72K on March 13th. Buying volume relative to selling remains high. Both
the faster and slower RSI lines remain above 50. I amd holding my long position in BTCUSD
and watching to see if price can break resistance. If it can another leg higher could begin.
So, if the break occurs, I will add substantially to the position
DAX Opens Positively to Start the WeekThe DAX has put the geopolitical risk premium behind it to start the week, despite the Iranian attack on Israel over the weekend. IF the hourly stochastic can reach its upper quartile and maintain, a positive swing is likely to result.
This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”).
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
GBPAUD - Cup & Handle-Bullish Continuation-Bullish DivergenceFX:GBPAUD has created a new HH after a bearish rally. The new HH was created following bullish divergence on different timeframes (1 hr, 2hr, 3hr and 4hr). Price has also created a Cup & Handle pattern which indicates a potential bullish move incoming if price breaks the handle!
Navigating the TurbulenceA Trader's Perspective: Unpacking the Market's Ebb and Flow
Hey fellow traders, I've been keeping an eye on the charts and I wanted to share my take on the latest price action. It's been quite a ride recently, with the market throwing us some curveballs. We've seen our share of ups and downs, but there's something about the way prices bounced off the low of 0.000196 that's caught my attention. That level held up like a champ, and the rebound was strong enough to challenge the 0.00300 ceiling, but alas, it wasn't meant to be – the rejection was almost as if the market said, "Not today, folks."
Diving into the indicators, the RSI flirted with the overbought zone, which kind of set off a little alarm bell for me. And sure enough, our custom indicator flashed a 'SELL' right when we hit that resistance. Talk about timing, right? Prices are now playing tag with 0.002318, and it feels like we're all holding our breath to see which way the wind blows.
So, what's next? Well, the market's sending us some mixed vibes. The Ichimoku cloud is starting to look a bit stormy above the current price, hinting that we might be in for some rain (or a price drop, in trader speak). But hey, if we can stick the landing above that stubborn 0.00300 line, we might just see a nice sunny rally. On the flip side, a slip could send us sliding down to revisit the lows. My two cents? Keep those stop losses snug and don't get too carried away chasing profits. It's all about playing it smart in these choppy waters.
Wanchain (WAN) - To the moonOn the above weekly chart price action has corrected 96% since April 2021. A number of reasons now exist to be long. They include:
1) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts.
2) Support and resistance. Price action prints a double bottom on past resistance.
3) The bull flag breakout with confirmation. 1000% forecast.
Is it possible price action corrects further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=6%
Timeframe for long: yesterday
Return: 10x
SOUN Analysis: Emerging Bullish Signals at Key SupportTicker: SOUN (SoundHound AI, Inc.)
Current Price: $4.39
Technical Analysis:
- RSI Observation: The RSI (grey line on custom indicator) is currently at 32.79 on the 4-hour chart, approaching oversold territory. This aligns with the increase in the 1-hour RSI from 25.50 to 34.44, suggesting a building momentum for a potential reversal.
Support and Resistance Zones:
- Support Zone (Purple Rectangle): Currently being tested, this potential support zone ranges from $4.00 to $4.35. Previously, this range acted as a strong resistance area multiple times. While it has not yet been confirmed as a stable support level, its historical significance suggests a possible base for upward movement.
Analysis and Strategy:
Although there hasn't been a confirmed stabilization above the newly formed support zone, the combination of the RSI nearing oversold conditions and the price interacting with a historically significant level presents a bullish scenario. The declining ADX indicates a loss of downward momentum, further hinting at a possible weakening of the bearish trend.
Traders should closely monitor this zone for signs of bullish reversal. Considering entering positions if we see signs of support solidification within this range, with potential upward moves possibly reaching new resistance levels or retracing past higher price points.
Conclusion:
While SOUN is yet to establish firm stability above the support zone, the technical indicators suggest a weakening bearish trend and potential for bullish reversal. Investors and traders should watch for positive changes in price action around the current levels to potentially capitalize on early signs of a trend reversal.
Badger DAO (BADGER)On the above 4-day chart price action has corrected over 90% since the sell signal in August 2021 (not shown). Now is a good opportunity to go long. Why?
1) A strong buy signal prints. (not shown).
2) Price action resistance breakout.
3) Strong positive divergence between price action and multiple oscillators. This divergence occurs over a 80 day period.
Is it possible price action could fall further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=6% of portfolio
Timeframe: Don’t know.
Return: Don’t know.
PS: Does the above chart look familiar? ;-) (hint nudge wink etc - how thick do you want it?)
AMD Technical Analysis: Bullish Reversal Potential with RSI Div.Ticker: AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)
Current Price: $163.26
Technical Analysis:
- RSI Observation: The RSI (grey line on custom indicator) is currently at 35.08, indicating oversold conditions. Notably, there is a bullish RSI divergence (yellow lines on chart) with the price, suggesting a potential reversal to the upside.
Support and Resistance Zones:
- Support Zone (Purple Rectangle): Positioned around $160 to $162, this area historically attracts buying interest and may act as a catalyst for a bullish reversal.
- Resistance Zone (Purple Rectangle): Located around $182 to $185, this level could be the target for a potential upward move if a bullish reversal occurs.
Analysis and Strategy:
The bullish RSI divergence, combined with the presence of a support zone, indicates a possible bullish reversal in AMD's price. Traders may consider monitoring price action for confirmation of a bounce off the support zone and targeting the resistance zone for potential profit-taking.
Conclusion:
AMD's technical analysis suggests potential for a bullish reversal, with the RSI divergence adding weight to the bullish scenario. Traders should watch for confirmation signals and plan their strategies accordingly.
TSM Analysis: Double Top and Support Zones Signal Bearish TrendTicker: TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)
Current Price: $142.57
Technical Analysis: Potential Short-Term Bearish Signal
Price Action Observation: TSM is currently trading at $142.57, with a possible double top formation identified around $147.40 (purple dotted line). This formation often signifies a potential reversal in the ongoing uptrend.
Support Levels: A crucial support zone is marked by the purple rectangle between $133.50 to $136. These levels historically indicate increased buying interest and could potentially act as a floor for the price.
Indicators Analysis:
- RSI (Grey Line): The RSI, represented by the grey line on a custom indicator, has been declining, signaling diminishing bullish momentum.
- ADX (White Line): The ADX, depicted as the white line on the custom indicator, has also been decreasing, suggesting a weakening trend strength.
Potential Strategy:
Considering the technical analysis indicating a short-term bearish outlook and the identified support levels, traders may watch for price movements around the support zone of $133.50 to $136 for potential buying opportunities or confirmation of the bearish trend continuation.
Conclusion:
Based on the analysis of the double top pattern (purple dotted line), support levels (purple rectangle), RSI, and ADX, there's a possibility of a short-term bearish direction for TSM. Traders should closely monitor these levels and indicators for potential trading signals.
USDJPY Analysis: Bullish Flag Pattern PotentialTrade Strategy: Bullish Flag Pattern
Key Levels:
- Shorting Opportunity: 153.26
- Buying Opportunity: 152.84
Analysis:
- Importance: Identifies a potential Bullish Flag Pattern setup
- Technical Analysis: Signals a possible continuation of the bullish trend
- Fundamental Analysis: Supports the bullish bias for USDJPY
Trade Plan:
- Shorting Opportunity: Consider shorting at 153.26 with candlestick pattern confirmation and RSI Divergence
- Buying Opportunity: Look for buy entries near 152.84, targeting beyond the resistance line at 153.26
Insights:
The USDJPY chart shows signs of a Bullish Flag Pattern formation, indicating a potential bullish continuation. Traders can watch for opportunities to short or buy based on the identified key levels.
📈📉 Keep an eye on USDJPY for trading opportunities based on the Bullish Flag Pattern setup!
DDOG shows bullish momentum 3 weeks before earnings LONGDDOG on a 120 minute chart is breaking above narrow Bollinger Bands as they begin to
release the squeeze. The relative volailitiy indicator shows red to green and increasing
volatility. The price volume indicators show the bullish trend while the TTM squeeze
just signaled green. I will tkae a long trade here focused on the price action leading to the
earnings report due May 3rd.
Don't Get Duped by the RSIWhy This Popular Indicator Can Lead You Astray
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a common technical analysis tool used by traders to gauge whether an asset is overbought (priced too high) or oversold (priced too low). It analyzes price movements over a specific period (often 14 days) and displays a score between 0 and 100. Generally, an RSI above 70 suggests an overbought condition, while an RSI below 30 suggests an oversold condition.
While the RSI seems straightforward, there's a crucial catch: it's a lagging indicator. This means it reacts to past price movements rather than predicting future ones. This inherent lag can sometimes mislead traders, particularly when markets are volatile or trending strongly.
Here's how the RSI's lagging nature can be deceptive:
Overbought Traps: The RSI might reach overbought territory (above 70) during a strong uptrend. However, instead of signaling an imminent reversal, the price could keep climbing, potentially reaching new highs. This can lure traders into believing a correction is coming (based on the high RSI) only to miss out on further gains.
Oversold Deceptions: Conversely, the RSI might dip into oversold territory (below 30) during a downtrend. This could be interpreted as a buying opportunity, anticipating a bounce back. But, in a strong downtrend, the price may continue to fall, and the RSI might stay oversold for extended periods.
How to Use the RSI More Effectively:
Despite its limitations, the RSI can still be a valuable tool when used strategically:
Confirmation Tool: Combine the RSI with other technical indicators or chart patterns for confirmation. For example, an RSI divergence (where the RSI moves in the opposite direction of the price) might strengthen a potential reversal signal.
Identify Trending Markets: The RSI can help identify the strength of a trend. During strong uptrends, the RSI may frequently reach overbought levels without signaling an immediate reversal. Conversely, in downtrends, the RSI may stay oversold for extended periods.
Identify Overbought/Oversold Conditions: While not a precise timing tool, the RSI can indicate when an asset might be nearing extreme price levels, potentially due for a correction. However, be cautious about chasing these signals blindly.
Beyond the RSI:
Remember, the RSI is just one piece of the puzzle. Always consider other factors like market sentiment, news events, and overall price trends when making trading decisions.
Here are some additional tips:
Don't rely solely on technical indicators. Develop a comprehensive trading strategy that considers both technical and fundamental analysis.
Backtest your strategies. Test your trading ideas using historical data to see how they would have performed in different market conditions.
Start small and manage your risk. Don't invest more than you can afford to lose, especially when using potentially deceptive indicators.
By understanding the limitations of the RSI and using it strategically, you can improve your technical analysis skills and make more informed trading decisions.
Watching for IWM to bounce off support
IWM is currently in a strong accumulation area based on the volume profile delta. The indexes were a bit oversold after yesterday's CPI report and FOMC minutes, leading to a bounce in the afternoon. I am skeptical as to whether today's PPI report and fed speakers will have the same effect so I closed my puts. Here is my reasoning:
VIX keeps rejecting above $16.25. If it does not move up sharply at market open, I expect it to reject again and move back down towards $13.00.
The 10y bonds chart looks like yields have topped out for the week after hitting the R3 fib pivot point. I see it retracing down the channel until next week.
Same situation with the Dollar.
I expect a small rally into the weekend or early next week. Timing will depend on the reaction to today's PPI report. I'd like to see a dip in the morning so I can minimize risk in case there is not enough momentum to get to $206. I expect some choppiness there so we can either continue moving up next week or head for new lows.
Also thinking this looks like another bullish wedge on NYSE..