GBP/USD H1 Analysis – Fibonacci Exhaustion + Bearish DivergencePair: GBP/USD
Timeframe: 1-Hour
Technical Tools Used:
• Price Action & Structure
• Fibonacci Extension
• Awesome Oscillator (AO)
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📌 Key Technical Highlights:
✅ Price reached 4.236 Fibonacci Exhaustion Level
✅ Clear Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside
✅ Bearish Divergence spotted on AO
✅ Bearish Targets identified using Fibonacci Extension
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🔍 Market Overview:
GBP/USD recently completed a strong bullish impulse and tapped into the 4.236 Fibonacci exhaustion zone around 1.34686, a level often associated with trend exhaustion.
Following this, a Break of Structure (BOS) was confirmed, signaling potential weakening of bullish momentum and a possible trend reversal.
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📉 Bearish Confluence – AO Divergence:
The Awesome Oscillator (AO) confirms bearish divergence:
• Price made a higher high.
• AO made a lower high.
This suggests that bullish momentum is fading despite higher price levels — a classic early warning of potential reversal.
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🎯 Fibonacci Extension Take-Profit Zones:
Using the latest swing leg and BOS as the reference, the Fibonacci extension tool reveals several high-probability take-profit zones:
• ✅ TP1: 1.618 Extension @ 1.33770
• ✅ TP2: 2.618 & 2.786 Extensions @ 1.33204 – 1.33051
• 🧊 Extreme Targets: 4.236+ Extensions near 1.32288 and below, if strong bearish momentum continues.
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💡 Trading Plan:
This setup offers a clean bearish opportunity based on:
• Completion of an extended bullish leg
• Break of market structure
• Momentum divergence via AO
• Strong Fibonacci confluence
Bias: Bearish
Trigger: Wait for pullback or retest followed by bearish confirmation (e.g., rejection candle or engulfing pattern).
Risk: As always, use clear stop-loss above recent high and manage risk appropriately.
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👍 If you found this analysis helpful, give it a like and follow for more updates.
💬 Drop your thoughts or questions below — let’s discuss your setups too!
M-oscillator
AUD/CAD: Ducks in a Row for a Drop Below .8880?The ducks look to be lining up for AUD/CAD downside.
It was comprehensively rejected at the 200DMA a fortnight ago, followed by wedge break on Tuesday before sliding below the 50DMA on Thursday. It now sits perched on .8880, a level it attracted buying from earlier this month.
With RSI (14) sub-50 and MACD crossing over from above, momentum signals are shifting neutral to moderately bearish, favouring downside. With both moving averages trending lower, it reinforces the bearish picture.
If AUD/CAD breaks beneath .8880, considering initiating shorts targeting a return to support at .8800. A stop above .8880 would provide protection against reversal.
Should it hold .8880, the bearish backdrop suggests there are better setups to consider than flipping the trade and going long.
Good luck!
DS
RACE Wave Analysis – 22 May 2025- RACE reversed from round resistance level 500.00
- Likely to fall to support level 460.00
RACE earlier reversed from the strong resistance area between the major round resistance level 500.00 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of 2024) and the upper weekly Bollinger Band.
The last time the price reversed down from the resistance level 500.00 it formed the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal Evening Star – signalling the strength of this resistance level.
Given the overbought reading on the weekly Stochastic indicator, RACE can be expected to fall to the next support level 460.00.
GBP/JPY Elliott Wave Completion + AO Divergence @ Zone 4.23 | BUHey traders! 👋
Here’s an exciting setup on GBP/JPY (1H) — we might be at the early stage of a major reversal, and you’ll want this on your radar. Let's break it down with Elliott Wave theory, the Awesome Oscillator (AO), and some powerful Fibonacci confluence.
🧠 Elliott Wave Count – 5-Wave Impulse Completed
We have a clean 5-wave bearish impulsive structure:
1️⃣ Wave (1): Sharp drop kicks off the trend.
2️⃣ Wave (2): Classic pullback, respecting structure.
3️⃣ Wave (3): Longest and most powerful wave down.
4️⃣ Wave (4): Corrective triangle/flat with weakening bear momentum.
5️⃣ Wave (5): Final push into a key demand zone, but lacks strength.
🛑 What makes this special? Wave (5) lands right into “Zone 4.23” — a Fibonacci extension (423.6%) of the corrective leg — acting as a magnet for price exhaustion.
📊 AO Divergence – Early Warning Signal!
Check the Awesome Oscillator (AO):
Price makes lower lows (Wave 3 → Wave 5)
AO makes higher lows — textbook bullish divergence 🔍
This is smart money exhaustion: the bears are running out of steam, even though price is still pushing lower. When momentum diverges from price, a reversal is highly probable.
📌 ZONE 4.23 – Fibonacci Confluence + Demand Zone
This zone (191.900 – 192.300) is no ordinary support. It combines:
📐 423.6% Fibonacci extension (a powerful exhaustion level)
🟦 Historical demand zone from previous impulsive rally
🤖 Price reacting instantly on touch = algorithmic buying likely
⚠️ What Comes Next – Break of Structure (BOS) = Entry Trigger
We’re not rushing in blindly. Here’s the plan:
Wait for BOS: Price must break above Wave (4) structure (~193.200).
AO flips green: Extra confirmation of new bullish momentum.
Retest of BOS or Zone 4.23: That’s our golden buy entry.
Target Zone: Use Fibonacci retracement of full Wave 1–5 down. First targets:
🎯 38.2% = 193.800
🎯 61.8% = 194.900
🎯 Full correction = 196.000+
🎯 Conclusion: This Is a Setup with EDGE
✅ Completed Elliott Wave
✅ AO Divergence = Hidden strength
✅ Fibonacci 4.23 Confluence
✅ Demand Zone bounce
✅ Clear BOS-based entry plan
🔥 Are You Ready for the Reversal?
Drop a comment if you're watching this setup too 👇
Like ❤️ + Follow if you want more clean, actionable Elliott Wave + AO confluence setups like this!
📈 Let’s catch the move before the crowd reacts.
#GBPJPY #ElliottWave #AO #Divergence #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #BuySetup #SmartMoney #Fib4.23 #BreakOfStructure #TrendReversal
Color Your Trades: MACD 4C vs the Classic📊 Coloring Momentum: Comparing Standard MACD vs MACD 4C
Momentum indicators are a trader’s compass—but not all compasses are created equal. In this post, we compare the classic MACD with the visually enhanced MACD 4C , a four-color histogram tool that adds clarity and nuance to trend and momentum analysis.
Let’s break down how both tools work, how we use them at Xuantify, and how you can decide which one fits your strategy best.
🔍 What Are These Indicators?
Standard MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is a time-tested momentum indicator that plots the difference between two EMAs (typically 12 and 26) and a signal line (usually a 9 EMA of the MACD line). It’s simple, effective, and widely used.
MACD 4C , developed by vkno422 , builds on the classic MACD by introducing a four-color histogram and divergence detection , making it easier to interpret momentum shifts and trend strength visually.
Key Differences:
Standard MACD: Two lines + histogram (single color)
MACD 4C: Histogram only, but with four colors to show trend strength and direction
MACD 4C includes bullish/bearish divergence detection
🧠 How We Use Them at Xuantify
We use both indicators—but for different purposes.
1. Standard MACD – Clean Confirmation
We use it for classic trend confirmation and crossover signals . It’s great for traders who prefer minimalism and are comfortable interpreting line-based momentum.
2. MACD 4C – Visual Momentum Clarity
We use MACD 4C when we want a more intuitive, color-coded view of momentum. The four-color histogram helps us quickly spot trend strength, exhaustion, and divergence.
🧭 Color Coding in MACD 4C
MACD 4C uses four histogram colors (default settings):
Lime/Green : Bullish momentum building or continuing
Red/Maroon : Bearish momentum building or continuing
This makes it easier to:
Spot momentum shifts
Identify trend continuation
Detect divergence at a glance
⚙️ Settings That Matter
Both indicators allow customization, but MACD 4C offers more visual tuning:
MACD 4C:
Adjustable fast/slow MA and signal smoothing
Toggle divergence detection
Color-coded histogram for quick reads
Standard MACD:
Clean, minimal, and widely supported
Best for traders who prefer traditional setups
🔗 Best Combinations with These Indicators
We combine MACD tools with:
Structure Tools – BOS/CHOCH for context
Liquidity Zones – To spot where momentum may reverse
Volume Profile – To confirm strength behind moves
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) – For precision entries
⚠️ What to Watch Out For
Both indicators are lagging by nature—they rely on moving averages. MACD 4C’s divergence detection can help anticipate reversals, but it’s still best used as a confirmation tool , not a standalone signal.
🔁 Repainting Behavior
Both the standard MACD and MACD 4C are non-repainting . Once a histogram bar or crossover is printed, it remains fixed. This makes them reliable for real-time trading and backtesting .
⏳ Lagging or Leading?
These are lagging indicators , designed to confirm trends—not predict them. MACD 4C’s divergence feature adds a leading element , but it should always be used with structure and price action for confirmation.
🚀 Final Thoughts
If you’re a visual trader who wants more clarity from your momentum tools, MACD 4C is a powerful upgrade. If you prefer simplicity and tradition, the standard MACD still holds its ground.
Try both, test them in your strategy, and see which one sharpens your edge.
Hang Seng Futures: Bulls Need 23,600 to StickIf Hang Seng futures continue to bounce from 23,600, it sets up a decent long opportunity with the price trending higher and momentum indicators and moving averages still favouring dip buying. The price is currently taking a peek beneath the level.
If it can rebound—as seen earlier in the session—longs could be considered above 23,600 with a stop beneath the session low for protection. Wednesday’s high of 23,884 stands out as a potential target, with a break above that opening the door to a retest of 24,050 resistance.
Failure to reclaim 23,600 would invalidate the setup.
Good luck!
DS
3M Wave Analysis – 21 May 2025
- 3M reversed from multi-month resistance level 154.00
- Likely to fall to support level 145.00
3M recently reversed down from the multi-month resistance level 154.00 (which has been reversing the price from the end of January) intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 154.00 formed the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star.
Given the strength of the resistance level 154.00 and the overbought daily Stochastic, 3M can be expected to fall to the next support level 145.00.
Going short on the Nasdaq 100CAPITALCOM:US100
The Nasdaq 100 has moved up impulsively on a 5-wave move over the past 6 weeks, which is very bullish long term. However, in the short term, it is overextended, with the RSI indicator over the 70 level.
I expect it to decline over the next couple of weeks to the area marked in the green rectangle, between the 50% and the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level.
I hope you find this interesting.
Good luck to you
Going Short on BitcoinBINANCE:BTCUSDT
Bitcoin has moved up strongly in the last 5 weeks in a 5-wave up move, which is very bullish long term. However, after a 5-wave move, there is usually a 3-wave corrective move to the opposite direction. The most common target will be the Golden Pocket, which is between the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement and the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement. Which would be between $86,500 USDT and $81,200 USDT. This move will probably take several weeks, probably between 2 and 4 weeks, before it resumes to the upside.
Another point to consider is that the RSI indicator has reached overbought levels, above the 70 level. I would like to see it near oversold levels, 30 level, before considering going long.
I hope you find this interesting.
Good luck to you
Why I think EURUSD will sell this week...Technical AnalysisHey Rich Friends,
Happy Monday! I wanted to share my analysis on EURUSD and why I think it will sell. This is only a technical analysis so please check the news and cross-reference your own charts. Here is what I am looking at:
- Momentum has picked up for the sellers after the swing high was hit. This means a downtrend has started and is picking up.
- The market structure was broken on the downside on M15 and H1. There was a retest and previous support became resistance.
- The stoch is facing down, both lines have crossed below 80, slow line (orange) is above the fast line (blue) which is a bearish confirmation for me.
Additional information:
- I will wait for both lines of the stoch to cross below 50 to confirm the down trend.
- I will use previous highs as my SL and previous lows as my TPs.
Good luck if you decide to take this trade, let me know how it goes.
Peace and Profits,
Cha
ASX Bulls Sniff Record HighsASX 200 SPI futures have broken above the 8400 level and May 16 high of 8424, opening the door to a bullish setup—provided the price holds these levels into the close.
Longs could be considered above 8424 with a stop below 8400 for protection, targeting a retest of the record high at 8581. While momentum indicators are nearing overbought territory, they continue to trend higher, keeping the bullish bias intact.
A close below 8400 would invalidate the setup.
Fundamentally, the underlying index remains expensive across several valuation metrics—especially the banking sector, where multiples are hard to justify. But that hasn't stopped the rally so far. Optimism following the RBA’s dovish shift in May is helping fuel the latest breakout.
Good luck!
DS
An Extended In-Depth BTC/USDT Technical ExaminationThis comprehensive technical analysis offers a granular look into the recent trading activity of BTC/USDT. By dissecting the established market structure, various indicator signals, and crucial volume patterns, we aim to build a detailed picture of the forces at play and the evolving sentiment within this market.
1. The Bedrock: Established Bullish Structure and a History of Ascending Peaks
Observing the price action from the designated "STRUCTURE START" point, it's evident that Bitcoin has, for a considerable span, carved out a path indicative of bullish market dominance. This was not a haphazard series of movements but rather a more methodical construction of a positive trend, characterized by the consistent achievement of higher highs. Each successive peak surpassed its predecessor, and often, the subsequent troughs also formed at higher levels than those before them. This pattern of ascending highs and higher lows is a cornerstone of classical technical analysis, widely interpreted as a sign of robust underlying demand and a prevailing optimistic sentiment among market participants. Buyers have demonstrated a recurring willingness to absorb selling pressure and to pay incrementally more for the asset, leading to this stair-step upward progression. This established bullish framework provides the critical context against which more recent, potentially contrasting, signals must be evaluated. It forms the baseline expectation of continued upward momentum that has been challenged by more recent developments.
2. An Early Warning: The Initial Bearish Divergence and Its Eventual Neutralization
Well before the most recent price turbulence, an interesting cautionary signal emerged in the form of a "WEAK BEARISH DIVERGENCE," as demarcated by the yellow dashed line connecting price peaks with corresponding RSI peaks. This specific instance occurred when the price chart successfully printed a new, higher high, yet the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, failed to confirm this strength, instead registering a lower high. Such a discrepancy between price and momentum is a classic bearish divergence. It often suggests that while the price is still being pushed upwards, the underlying buying power or enthusiasm is beginning to wane. It can be an early indicator that the bullish thrust is losing conviction and that the trend might be vulnerable to a pullback or reversal.
However, this particular early warning signal did not immediately usher in a significant downturn. As the chart highlights with the red "!" exclamation mark on the RSI, this divergence was subsequently "mitigated." Divergence mitigation can occur in several ways, such as a sharp price correction that pulls the RSI down significantly, effectively "resetting" the oscillator, or a period of sideways consolidation where the RSI drifts lower, resolving the overbought conditions without a major price drop. In this case, the mitigation implied that the bearish undertones indicated by the divergence were either absorbed by renewed buying interest or were not potent enough to derail the overarching uptrend at that juncture. The market seemingly managed to overcome this initial hiccup in momentum, allowing the bullish structure to persist for a while longer.
3. The Volume Narrative: A Tale of Initial Strength Followed by Decisive Weakness at the Apex
The volume profile, particularly over the most recent trading days leading up to and including the latest peak, provides crucial insights into market conviction. As BTC/USDT embarked on its ascent towards the recent significant highs, there was a conspicuous and encouraging surge in trading volume. This is visually represented by the taller volume bars, and the green upward arrow on the volume indicator emphasizes this period of high participation. Generally, strong volume accompanying a price rally or a breakout above key resistance levels is considered a bullish confirmation. It suggests broad market participation, institutional interest, and a strong consensus behind the upward move, lending credibility to its sustainability.
However, a very different and far more concerning volume pattern emerged during the attempt to retest or potentially exceed this recently established high. As indicated by the red downward-sloping arrow and the prominent red question mark above the volume bars, the trading volume experienced a dramatic and notable decline during this critical retest. This sharp fall-off in volume as the price approached or nominally touched the prior peak is a significant bearish tell. It signals a profound lack of buying conviction at these elevated price levels. Potential interpretations include buyer exhaustion (those willing to buy have already done so), profit-taking by earlier entrants, or an absence of new capital willing to chase the price higher. The failure to decisively break the previous high, especially when accompanied by such diminished volume, often acts as a strong precursor to price rejection, suggesting that the bullish impetus witnessed earlier had significantly dissipated, leaving the market vulnerable.
4. An Unresolved Condition: The Persistent Bearish Divergence Deepens its Roots
More recently, and perhaps more alarmingly for bullish prospects, a distinct and more pronounced bearish divergence has taken shape, as explicitly marked in red ("DIV") on the RSI indicator. This divergence materialized as the price action, particularly looking at candle closes, managed to etch out highs that were comparable to, or in some instances slightly above, the peak established just before the sharp subsequent decline. In stark contrast, the RSI painted a very different picture, charting a series of clearly lower highs. This disjuncture, where price holds or inches higher while momentum (as measured by the RSI) visibly weakens, is a classic and often more reliable bearish signal. It implies that the upward price movements are occurring on fumes, with diminishing underlying strength and buying support.
What makes this particular divergence especially noteworthy is its resilience. Despite the "relatively violent attack on the lows" observed – a sharp and rapid downward price movement that might typically be expected to "reset" indicators and alleviate overbought conditions or divergences – this bearish divergence was not mitigated. One might anticipate such a forceful sell-off to drive the RSI down substantially, thereby resolving the discrepancy with price.
However, in this instance, while the RSI did decline in response to the price drop, it did not fall to a level that would invalidate the pre-existing bearish divergence. Instead, this sequence of events seems to have reaffirmed and potentially extended the divergence. The RSI’s failure to achieve a deep reset during the sell-off, coupled with any subsequent weak price recovery attempts that still keep the RSI relatively subdued compared to its earlier peaks, reinforces the notion that the selling pressure encountered was substantial and that the bulls currently lack the momentum to decisively overcome this prevailing underlying weakness. This persistent, unmitigated divergence, especially when viewed in conjunction with the aforementioned volume weakness at the highs, strongly suggests a more entrenched struggle for the bulls.
Conclusion:
While it's true that in the very short term, the persistence and extension of the bearish RSI divergence, coupled with volume weakness during the latest attempt to surpass highs, presents a scenario with slightly bearish undertones and warns of a potential corrective or consolidation phase, it is crucial not to lose sight of the broader perspective. The primary price structure, observed since the "STRUCTURE START," continues to exhibit a sequence of higher highs. This is a fundamental pillar that maintains the bullish scenario as the principal and most probable one in the medium term.
Therefore, even if the price were to experience a correction and seek lower support levels or even recent lows (such as a potential test of the POC zone or lower marked levels), the priority mindset should remain geared towards identifying buying opportunities. This is because the underlying expectation is that, following a potential corrective or consolidation phase, the price will resume its path to make future attacks on key resistance levels. Seeking long trades, with an eye on surpassing recent highs and continuing the upward trend, remains the predominant strategy.
Additionally, it is vital to consider the confluence with the prevailing bullish trend on higher timeframes (daily, weekly). What we are currently observing on this lower timeframe chart could be interpreted as a phase of fractal re-accumulation within the inertia of this larger uptrend. That is, a pattern of consolidation and subsequent continuation that replicates on a smaller scale within a broader bullish movement. Pullbacks, in this context, often serve as opportunities for longer-term traders to add to positions or for new participants to enter in the direction of the main trend.
Consequently, while the formation of a short-term bearish setup cannot be entirely dismissed, especially if weakness persists and key supports are broken with conviction and volume, this bearish scenario still lacks the necessary confirmations to consider it dominant or to invalidate the underlying bullish structure. For now, the structure of higher highs and higher lows, supported by the trend on higher timeframes, suggests that any current weakness might be temporary before a new bullish impulse. The underlying bullish structure remains the primary guide until proven otherwise with compelling technical evidence, such as a break and consolidation below significant prior structural lows.
eBay May Be Breaking OuteBay has quietly snuck to multiyear highs, and some traders may look for further upside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the February 26 peak of $71.61. At the time, it was the highest level since November 2021. However, EBAY broke it on Friday and continued upward on Monday. That could suggest it’s breaking out.
Second is the April 1 high just below $69. The e-commerce stock struggled to get above it in early May but soon turned the old resistance into new support. That’s potentially consistent with an uptrend.
Next, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is above the 100-day SMA. Both are above the 200-day SMA. That sequence, with faster SMAs above slower ones, may reflect a long-term uptrend.
Short-term signals may be similarly positive. For example, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is above the 21-day EMA and MACD is rising.
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DOGE monthly grows is hereIf we check Dogecoin on monthly timeframe and compare that to the previous cycle:
1) 20 & 50 MA on monthly held the price
2) The RSI level is too low and has a lot of room to growth to about 80 level
3) The support held
4) Six months growth gives October 2025
5) June & July most be pretty bullish
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Bullish Wave 4 Retracement in Progress📈 GOLD (XAU/USD) - Bullish Wave 4 Retracement in Progress 💥
15-Minute Chart | Elliott Wave | AO Convergence | Bullish Reversal
🔍 Market Context:
Gold has completed a clear 5-wave impulsive move down from the 3228.75 resistance zone. Based on Elliott Wave Theory, we are now seeing the beginning of Wave 4, a corrective retracement before a potential Wave 5 continuation lower.
🧠 Technical Breakdown:
✅ Wave Count:
Wave 3 completed with strong bearish momentum, ending in a classic 5-subwave structure.
We're now seeing a bullish engulfing candle at the termination of Wave 3, signaling a potential Wave 4 correction.
Price is currently showing strength to the upside, likely retracing to test the previous supply zone near 3,228.75.
✅ Awesome Oscillator (AO):
Notice the bullish divergence (or convergence) forming between Wave 1 and Wave 3 lows.
Momentum is waning, suggesting the sell-off is losing steam—an ideal condition for a Wave 4 bounce.
Histogram bars are beginning to flip green, indicating short-term bullish strength.
✅ Price Action Confirmation:
The bullish engulfing candle marks a potential reversal zone.
Wave (5) of 3 appears to be completed in the green box region, aligning with historical demand.
A breakout above the small pullback could accelerate the move toward the 3220–3228 area.
🎯 Trade Idea (Short-Term):
Bias: Bullish retracement (Wave 4)
Entry: On break of bullish engulfing high
Target: 3220 – 3228 zone (Fib or prior structure resistance)
Invalidation: Close below 3190 or break of bullish engulfing low
📢 What to Watch Next:
Monitor for bearish signals around 3228 to prepare for a potential Wave 5 drop.
If price stalls or forms bearish divergence near resistance, it may offer a high-probability short setup.
💬 Let me know in the comments if you're riding this retrace or waiting for Wave 5! Drop a 👍 if you like clean wave structure analysis!
#XAUUSD #GoldAnalysis #ElliottWave #Wave4 #AO #BullishEngulfing #TradingView #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis
8752 Break Could Open Path to Retest Record HighsA clean break above the March 20 high of 8752 would generate a bullish setup, allowing for longs to be established with a stop beneath for protection, targeting a retest of the record high at 8898.
Price action has been bullish in recent days, with a break of minor downtrend resistance on Thursday triggering another wave of buying, backed by solid volumes. Combined with momentum signals that reinforce the trend, the bias remains to buy dips and breakouts.
If the price fails to sustain a break above 8752, the setup is invalidated.
Good luck!
DS
Merck Wave Analysis – 19 May 2025
- Merck reversed from support area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 80.00
Merck recently reversed up from the support area between the long-term support level 73.35 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of 2020) and the lower weekly Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support area created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Long-legged Doji.
Given the strength of the support level 73.35 and the oversold weekly Stochastic, Merck can be expected to rise to the next round resistance level 80.00.