Golden Hunt with ICT Strategy: Perfect XAU/USD Analysis in the 1Hey everyone! Today, I’m excited to share a fascinating analysis of the XAU/USD pair in the 1-hour timeframe using the ICT strategy. I’ve added a free indicator to the chart that not only identifies swing points but also beautifully connects them with lines. This indicator even marks the days of the week, Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), and includes a 20-period EMA. It’s truly an amazing tool!
What’s more, it has features for displaying Kill Zones, sessions, and Silver Bullet, but I’ve turned those off for now to keep the focus on the essentials.
As you can see, Break of Structure (BOS) points are clearly marked, and I’ve highlighted the areas where the market structure has shifted. Notice how sometimes strong swing highs or lows are "hunted" by a shadow that pierces through, leading to a sharp bearish move afterward. The indicator highlights most of these hunts in red, helping us better anticipate market movements.
For entering trades, I used a simple tool to highlight green zones on the chart. I employed Fibonacci retracement levels of 61.8%, 70.5%, 79%, and 50% to pinpoint key entry areas. Additionally, using a custom method based on standard deviation, I marked potential future price zones with dotted lines.
In summary, this analysis combines advanced ICT techniques with practical tools to give you a clearer view of gold’s movements. I hope these insights help you achieve more successful trades! ✨
M-oscillator
Will Bitcoin Repeat? A Theory!I really like using Heikin-Ashi candles, the MACD, and Stochastic RSI to try to find potential tops or bottoms. This can be done on any time frame, but remember: the lower the time frame, the smaller the impact, and vice versa. I used this approach to almost call the bottom in October 2022 and early 2023 (You'll find a Post on that on my X Account)
Theory:
The current market behavior seems eerily similar to the last bull run. During that time, after Bitcoin hit its first "top," it then sharply corrected by about 50%. Bitcoin has already had a 30% correction at the moment, but it may fall another 20%, meaning a price of about $34,000.
Following that correction, in the last bull market, Bitcoin received a strong push to the upside, having roughly 135% growth that, in the end, marked the cycle top. If Bitcoin corrects to $34,000 now and repeats the move, a 135% rise would place it at about $79,000.
When looking at the MACD during the previous bull market, after the first sell off, the averages began to squeeze before taking the final bearish cross. In this process, the Stochastic RSI deep-cooled off, which helped it gather strength for one last push to the upside.
Again, that's only a theory, but it's something worth keeping a close watch on. Nothing is guaranteed.
DOGS long setup / Bulls or Bears, Tell me in CommentsBINANCE:DOGSUSDT
GATEIO:DOGSUSDT
Hello Traders
💥Long position on DOGS
SL1 ---> Low-risk status: 3x-4x Leverage
SL2 ---> Mid-risk status: 5x-8x Leverage
👾The setup is active but expect the uncertain phase as well.
➡️Entry Area:
Yellow zone
⚡️TP:
0.001097
0.001125
0.001158
0.001190
0.001221
0.001263
🔴SL:
0.00100
🧐The Alternate scenario:
If the price stabilizes below the trigger zone, the setup will be cancelled.
JPN225 Drops Back to Correction TerritoryThe benchmark Japanese index experienced a steep decline after the central bank stepped up is tightening efforts at the start of the month, but was able to cover the losses as investors calmed down.
However, the BoJ is likely to raise rates again and along with the Yen’s rebound, JPN225 could face sustained headwinds. The index loses ground this week and falls back to contraction territory, as Nvidia’s slump amidst broader tech fears, spills over to Japan. Key Japanese chip manufacturing equipment companies and major Nikkei constituents like Tokyo Electron and Advantest suffered heavy losses. JPN225 is now exposed to the 38.2% Fibonacci of its recent rebound, which bring back the risk of a near market.
On the other hand the RSI points to oversold conditions, while the stock market’s strength goes beyond monetary policy and weak Yen. Above the 38.2% Fibonacci, JPN225 can push for higher highs (39,204), although sustained advance has a higher degree of difficulty under current conditions.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”) (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
$SPY September 4, 2024AMEX:SPY September 4, 2024
15 Minutes
AMEX:SPY opened gap down.
Since close was not good in that bar buy was not possible.
I did not short for the day.
I need AMEX:SPY below moving averages 9,21 to short.
That came only around 556 levels with 559 as SL.
So, i was not sure of R:R hence no short.
Now for the day the rise from 518 to 564 has 546 -547 as 38.2% retracement.
It is also 200 averages in 60 minutes.
So, 546-548 is the next target.
Already achieved 549.5 yesterday.
Hence for the fall 564.2 to 549.5 a retrace around 556 - 558 will be a good placed to short today.
Having seen multiple tops near 564 levels i will go long only above 565 levels.
No long today as AMEX:SPY below all moving averages in 15 minutes.
The Pawn Chain is a revolution in the field of cryptographyPaw chain is one of the young, as yet unknown projects with a ready-made l3 solution, the world's first working l3, allowing the exchange of crypto assets between blockchains. a huge promising little-known coin, ideal for long-term investments.
NZD/USD rolling over as dairy rebound soursKiwi is looking toppy after printing a shooting star last Thursday, following the bearish reversal through .62764 with two back-to-back declines before easing lower again today. With RSI (14) breaking its uptrend, bullish momentum is waning. While not confirmed by MACD, the Kiwi looks heavy on the charts. Much will be determined by the price action around .6218, a level that thwarted numerous bullish probes in 2024 up until recently.
If we see the price fall below .6218 and hold there, one potential setup would be to sell the break with a tight stop above the level for protection. On the downside, minor support is located below .6200 and around .6175, although there’s nothing meaningful until .6133 where former downtrend resistance intersects with horizontal resistance at .6133.
From a fundamental perspective, Kiwi remains closely correlated with dairy markets, as shown in the bottom pane with a rolling 20-day correlation with whole milk powder futures of 0.94. Dairy prices remain strongly negatively correlated with moves in the US dollar index, making the Kiwi essentially an inverse play on US dollar movements.
Good luck!
DS
Bitcoin Dominance CycleLamba(L) = 208 weeks
SMA = 1/4 L = 52 weeks
SMA offfset = -1/8 L = -26 weeks
SMA decline at -15% per cycle.
Expect surprise breakdown of BTC.D support in summer 2025.
Wavelength cycle is the VBM 396693 pathway
Actual price data is VBM 124875 pathway
Fade in/out at extreme divergences between price and its fundamental tone.
$SPY August 9, 2024AMEX:SPY August 9, 2024
15 Minutes.
Short was wrong. I was concentrating on Diversion. Missed the fact that my stochastic green bar line was on top. Meaning it was bought on pullback.
So, trade was closed.
I will consider the last rise 557.1 to 564.20. Will enter at retracement 560 levels for long.
But first hurdle is 565.
Upside Ahead for Cotton - COT Strategy BuyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Cotton (CT)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CT if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials more long than they've been in 3 years = bullish.
OI Analysis: We are seeing a "Bubble Up" between Commercials & Large Specs. This is a sign of a significant bottom being formed.
Valuation: Undervalued VS Gold
COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal
Supplementary Indicators: %R Buy Signal
Remember, this is not a "Buy Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
Downside Ahead For T Bonds - COT Strategy ShortDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
T Bonds (ZB)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in ZB if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish.
OI Analysis: Extreme high in OI. Generally, extremely high OI found at market tops.
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for t bonds to go down into October
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist & POIV Sell Signals
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Downside Ahead for Gold - COT Strategy SellDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Gold (GC)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in GC if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Extreme Positioning: Most short Commercials have been since January 2021. Large specs longest they have been since March 2020.
OI Analysis: Price upward consolidation since April has seen Commercials heavily selling = bearish. Large Specs at longest positioning since March 2020 = bearish.
Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for gold to go down in September
Spread: Bearish spread divergence
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, %R & Stochastic Sell Signals.
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Upside Ahead for Soybeans - COT Strategy LongDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
Long
Soybeans (ZS)
I got long Soybeans last week. This week we see the COT strategy still giving us signals to be on alert for long trades in ZS if we get bullish signals on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials close to the longest they have been in the last 3 years.
Valuation: Undervalued VS Gold
ADX: Paunch forming (but not confirmed yet)
Supplementary Indicators: %R & Stochastic Buy Signals
Remember, this is not a "Buy Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
Upside Ahead for Crude Oil - COT Strategy LongDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Crude Oil (CL)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
OI Analysis: Down move since July and recent consolidation has seen CM's getting more long.
Valuation: Undervalued VS GOld
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for oil to go up to mid October.
Front Month Premium: Front month delivery contracts selling at premium to further out contracts. This is bullish, and is a sign that we could see a commercially driven bull move.
COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist Buy Signal
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
Upside Ahead for Mexican Peso - COT Strategy LongDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Mexican Peso (6M)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in 6M if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials most long they've been since March 2023 = bullish.
OI Analysis: Down move since May has seen Commercials adding to long positioning, which is bullish. Small Specs are at an extreme in short positioning. Also, OI is at its lowest level since 2022, generally low OI is found at bottoms.
Sentiment: Bearish advisor sentiment is a contrarian signal which we look to fade.
Valuation: Undervalued vs Treasuries & Gold
ADX: Paunch forming (but not yet confirmed).
True Seasonal: General grind up to mid September
COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, POIV, %R Buy Signals
Remember, this is not a "Buy Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Downside Ahead for JPY - COT Strategy Sell DISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
JPY (6J)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6J if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials at extreme in long positioning, most long since 2021. Small Specs at extreme in long positioning, most long since 2021. All this is bearish.
Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries & Gold
OI Analysis: Upmove since July has seen CM's quickly shift to strong short position = bearish.
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for this currency to go down into October.
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, POIV & Stochastic Sell Signals
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Downside Ahead for Aussie - COT Strategy Short DISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Australian Dollar (6A)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6A if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
OI Analysis: Last 3 weeks of price rally has seen OI increasing while the CM's have been getting out of their longs. This is bearish.
ADX: Pinch forming.
Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for this currency to go down to early October.
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: POIV, %R & Stochastic Sell Signals
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Russell 2000 - COT Based Strategy Suggests Downside AheadDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Russell 2000 (RTY)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in RTY if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for equities to go down in September
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: POIV & UO Sell Signals
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Why The Rise Of The $ Is Here-3 Points To DigestDid you hear about the infamous carry trade?
this trade took a storm over the financial media.
Honestly, i was shocked that people in the
financial news networks know about
this trade.
-
Did you know this always happens?
In currency carry trades a common thing
In fact that is why we have currency pairs
-
These currency pairs represent carry trades
Basically, a carry trade is when BANKS
borrow each other money using the Government
-
Bonds as collateral
Why?
-
Because Government bonds produce cash flow.
The problem comes when the value of this
asset drops.
-
Imagine defaulting on a loan
and taking back an asset that has no value
This is what causes a market crash!
-
Remember:
-Always use the dollar index
-Dollar is the most powerful currency
-The dollar is the one number #1 indicator in forex trading
-
My names are Lubosi Forex
thank you for reading.
-
To learn more Rocket Boost this content
So that i make a follow up lesson on the
indicators above.
Disclaimer: Trading is risky, please
learn risk management and
and profit-taking strategies.
ETH looking attractive again for DCAing (vs. BTC)Some of the higher buy orders within the green range triggered.
FG{50/15} showing bullish divergence on the weekly chart.
Good time to continue to very slowly DCA into ETH from BTC again within the golden pocket as defined (i.e. btwn the 61.8-65.0% Fib lvl), and setting more bigger buy orders within the green zone below -- these on the present backdrop of extremely negative and fearful sentiments on ETH and its future being spread around.
See also: