How I Secured 100+ Pips on NZDUSD Sell This WeekHey Rich Friends,
Happy Friday. Today, I will dive deep into the NZDUSD sell I took this week. Fortunately, my analysis was correct, and with patience, I was able to secure 100+ pips. Here is what I did:
First, I used session breaks on the 1HR time frame to help me identify the previous days' high and low. This is important because based on how the market reacts in these areas, it will help me determine what to do. For example:
- rejection at PDH = SELL, break out above PDH = BUY
- support at PDL = BUY, break out below PDL = SELL
In this case, there was a break below the PDL which was my first indicator to go short.
Next, I used horizontal lines to mark additional lows for potential TPs since I was selling and I used a previous high for my SL.
The only indicator that I used was the stochastic. You can find a very detailed breakdown of how I use the Stochastic in my previous Editors' Pick video here: www.tradingview.com
I hope this was helpful. If you made it this far, comment a "7" and let me know what you've learned.
Peace and Profits,
Cha
M-oscillator
Bear Flag in Adobe?Adobe trended lower most of 2024, and now some traders may expect another push to the downside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of higher lows since mid-January. The software company recently slid below that line, which may be viewed as a bear flag breakdown.
Second, bearish gaps after the last two earnings reports could reflect weak sentiment.
Third, ADBE has been unable to get above its falling 50-day simple moving average (SMA). That may indicate a negative intermediate-term trend.
Also notice how the 50-day SMA is under the 100-day SMA and both are below the 200-day SMA. That configuration, with faster SMAs below slower ones, may indicate a negative long-term trend.
Next, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) just crossed below the 21-day EMA. MACD is falling as well. Those patterns may be consistent with bearishness in the short term.
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DXY Phantom Strength.While I'm making this analysis Public, its purpose is really just a 'fun' project for myself to take a look back over time to see how (if) accurate it turns out to be.
what does the DXY yrTF 'tell' me?
1) the CCi has been making strong bullish moves (+100) away from the average price... while price has been printing LH's.
2) 2007 has been the only year (since 1980) with a CCi -100 Bear Push (& only just) & price printed a LL!
In other words, attempts of strength by the DXY results in an actual show of Weakness (LH's)?
While this has been sustained over decades, in my mind... DXY 'strength' DOES NOT RING TRUE.
3) While 2022 broke above the last LH of 16/17 (Off the HL of 2020...creating an up trend?)... yearly price has not closed above the 16/17 LH.
4) AND Price is still inside the 01/08 Bear Push Range.
REMEMBERING This is a Yearly Time Frame and therefore a VERY long term analysis, it seems to me the DXY is ultimately going to Dump.
5) Short Term However, I think a move to the yrWkZ of 2002 is still possible, if not likely. $115.00 ish.
Accelerating Losses Puts Uptrend Under ThreatTraders should be alert to the risk of an accelerated downside move in S&P 500 futures.
After hitting record highs just two weeks ago, the price action has deteriorated rapidly with an initial break of minor uptrend support followed by sustained selling on rising volumes. The 50DMA has given way, as has the February 3 low, leaving the price teetering on the November 2023 uptrend. RSI (14) and MACD continue to trend lower, reinforcing a bearish bias.
If the uptrend fails, bears may target a retest of 5808—a level that has been well-contested in recent months. That aligns with downtrend support extending from the December highs. Beyond that, the 200DMA looms as a key test for those eyeing a deeper pullback.
Alternatively, a bounce from the uptrend would confirm it as support, creating a setup where longs could be established above with a stop beneath for protection. A move above 5935.5 would be an early bullish signal, with a break opening the door for a push towards 6000 and the 50DMA.
Good luck!
DS
Ferrari Wave Analysis – 27 February 2025
- Ferrari reversed from round resistance level 500.00
- Likely to fall support level 440.00
Ferrari recently reversed down from the resistance zone between the round resistance level 500.00 (previous yearly high from 2024) and the upper weekly Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone is likely to form the weekly Evening Star Doji – if the price closes this week near the current levels.
Given the strength of the resistance level 500.00 and the overbought daily Stochastic, Ferrari can be expected to fall to the next support level 440.00.
BTC At Critical Support on 200DMA + RSI Way Oversold₿itcoin testing critical support on the 200DMA 🚨
Last time it closed under on July 4, 2024 it ranged for 101 days.
RSI hasn't been this oversold since August, 2023.
Last time BTC was at this RSI level and closed under the 200DMA it ranged for 60 days.
HOWEVER, the only time BTC has ever closed under the 200DMA on a Post-Halving year was in May 2021, where it then went on to rally to another new ATH.
I'm personally buying here 💯
Will STXUSDT recover from a failed fifth Elliott wave?
We start our Elliott wave count at the bear market lows (Nov 2022). The first wave tops in March 2023 starting the second wave that bottoms at the 0.618 Fib (typical second wave). The third wave tops along with most of the crypto market in end of March or early April 2024. Then the fourth wave corrects more than expected barely holding the 0.382 Fib, the first wave high and the pitchfork median line support. The fifth wave starts in August 2024 and tops in December 2024, below the third wave high and rejecting from a pitchfork resistance. From here STX tumbled down.
STX recently found support at the outer line of a macro modified Schiff pitchfork. We can see that the price action interacted with the median line of this pitchfork throughout the bull run. If we are to hit that median line again, we get a pretty ambitious target at around 5$ by the end of July 2025.
Below I examine other pitchforks for more realistic price targets.
Looking at the same pitchfork on linear scale we again see price action interacting with median, 0.5 and outer lines of the pitchfork. This chart gives us a target price of around 1.9 by the end of July 2025.
Changing the pitchfork type to Schiff and looking at the log chart again shows price action interacting with median and 0.5 lines of the pitchfork. This chart gives us a target price of around 2.44 by the end of July 2025.
Some smaller pitchforks on the log chart provide us with additional resistance levels to keep in mind.
Similarly on the linear chart. Here we also see a pitchfork median line that served as support.
In recent price action we can see bullish divergence in RSI and SRSI. In addition, at the daily close, one should watch for bullish crosses in RSI and SRSI.
Will this be the turning point for STX? Time will tell.
WTI Crude: Uptrend on the Brink—Break or Bounce Ahead?WTI crude oil is testing key uptrend support, offering fresh trading setups depending on how the price action evolves.
With Tuesday’s bearish key reversal candle, RSI (14) trending lower and MACD confirming the bearish momentum signal, a downside bias is favoured. However, with crude already down sharply—and past rebounds from the trendline often proving violent—patience is key.
A clean break below the uptrend could open the door for shorts, with a stop above for protection. Buyers have stepped in around $67–$66.33, making that a key zone to watch. A break lower would put the September 2024 swing low in play.
If support holds, the setup could be flipped. Longs could be established above with a stop beneath for protection. Former channel support sits near $69.60 today—making it an initial upside target—with Tuesday’s high around $71.30 next on the radar.
Good luck!
DS
Gold Bulls on Notice: Cracks Forming in the Rally’s FoundationTraders should be alert to the growing risk of a downside move in gold.
Bullish momentum underpinning the rally has weakened over recent weeks, alongside shaky price action.
RSI (14) has diverged from price, setting lower highs even as the latter briefly hit record levels. The bearish momentum signal has been confirmed by MACD, which has turned lower decisively.
While bulls defended uptrend support on Tuesday, resulting in a decent bounce, that’s unlikely to perturb bears given the increasingly unconvincing technical picture, punctuated by the bearish engulfing candle delivered during the session.
If we were to see a sustained break of the uptrend, keep a close eye on the price action around $2882.40—a level bullion tested either side on multiple occasions earlier this month. A break below could open the door to $2390.
Good luck!
DS
Solana Wave Analysis – 25 February 2025
- Solana reversed from support level 134.15
- Likely to rise to the resistance level 155.30
Solana cryptocurrency today reversed sharply from the key support level 134.15 (former Double Bottom from October) standing well below the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The price will likely form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer today (strong buy signal for Solana) – if the price closes today near the current levels.
Solana cryptocurrency can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 155.30 (former strong support from November, acting as the resistance now after it was broken earlier this month).
Confirmation of Wave 5 being complete, but which wave 5? It's waves within waves within waves, well maybe...
So now I'm seeing it either as the 1st of a 5th wave extension, or the 5th of the entire move from $15.4k.
These levels here should show what's up. Ideally it finds support around the halfway back, but it could go further, maybe the 618. How it gets there as well is to be considered so let's see. But below those levels and it will probably start getting outside the geometric boundaries I'd consider indicative of this move extending, meaning a deeper sell off to a possible 41K bitcoin.
That kind of sounds like wishful thinking, but some players will want in at a discount, so it's conceivable. The weekly moving averages are always worth considering as well. In any such move down so far, bulls would really want to see it rebounding and closing well above the 200 period moving average that it would likely breach in the sell off.
One longer term tool I keep an eye on is the base channel on the entire move from 15k - so channel on beginning of move to the end of 2, parallel with top of 1. Bitcoin hasn't traded below that base channel since quickly dipping its toe through in 2015, before which it had been above it since March 2013 (log scale) and had tried twice to break above it. So that will be my main overall indicator of whether I'm bull or bear.
Still, whatever happens, it's always a shakeout.
Downtrend in Applied Materials?Applied Materials has struggled since the summer and some traders may see further downside in the provider of chip equipment.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of higher lows between late December and mid-February. Earnings beat estimates on February 13, but conservative guidance pushed the stock below that line. The result is a potential bear-flag breakdown.
Second, short- and long-term moving averages may show bearish trends. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossed under the 100-day and 200-day SMAs in September. Two months later, the 100-day SMA slid below the 200-day SMA.
The 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) crossed under the 21-day EMA two weeks ago. MACD has also been negative.
Finally, you have the big event of NASDAQ:NVDA Nvidia earnings tomorrow afternoon. Given its importance to the entire semiconductor industry, AMAT could be especially volatile around the news.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
How to Set Multiple TPs...for BeginnersHey Rich Friends,
I wanted to share how I find multiple TPs for my Forex trades using free tools and only 1 technical indicator. This strategy is perfect for beginners because it is easy to follow and has clear confirmations for entering and exiting a trade in profit, even if it hits your Stop Loss.
I keep my charts clean and let price action do the talking. Here's my setup:
✅ Session Breaks & Horizontal Lines – I mark the previous day’s highs, lows, and key levels to identify potential areas of interest.
✅ Stochastic for Entries & Exits – I use the Stochastic indicator to time my trades when the price reacts at my key levels (80 and 20 are very important here!)
✅ Horizontal Lines = Potential TPs – Instead of setting a take profit, I let the market tell me when to exit based on price action around these levels.
Less noise, more precision. Drop a "7" if you made it to the end of the video and let me know if it was helpful!
Peace and Profits,
Cha
TOTAL Crypto Long-Term Trend Probability #2This indicator shifting to a bearish outlook on the 2-day timeframe potentially points to a temporary downturn or risk-averse sentiment in the crypto market.
It could imply that traders might consider taking a defensive stance, possibly exiting positions or hedging, especially if supported by other confirming signals like declining volume or weakening price action.
However, given the overall upward trajectory evident in the chart, this short-term bearish signal might simply indicate a minor correction or consolidation phase rather than a reversal of the long-term bullish trend.
LDO/USDT Technical Analysis – 1D# 📉 LDO/USDT Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
🔍 LDO price is currently sitting on its **90-day support level**. This is a crucial area because if the price manages to hold this support, we could see an upward move toward **2.35 USDT**, which is a key daily resistance level.
📌 **Bullish Scenario:** If buyers step in and defend this support zone, we might witness a rally toward **2.35 USDT**, representing a **51% increase** from the current price.
⚠ **Bearish Scenario:** However, if the **1.544 USDT** support level is lost on the daily timeframe, the next critical support would be at **0.925 USDT**. This is the **last major support zone** on the daily chart, and losing it could trigger further downside.
📊 **Indicators Overview:**
🔹 **Volume:** An increase in volume at key levels signals strong buying or selling pressure. Currently, volume is declining compared to the average, indicating uncertainty among traders.
🔹 **RSI:** The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at **44.22**, suggesting that the market is in a neutral zone with balanced buying and selling pressure.
👀 **Do you think LDO can bounce from this support level, or are we about to see another drop? Share your thoughts in the comments!**
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🔹 **This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please manage your risk accordingly before making any trading decisions.**
✅ If you agree with this analysis, drop a comment and share it with others! 🚀
EUR/JPY Bulls Seeking Signal as Price Clings to SupportEUR/JPY is teetering above known support, but with momentum favouring the bears, there’s no need to rush into longs.
If the pair continues find buyers on dips below 156.21, a long trade could be considered above the level with a stop beneath for protection. 158 looms as an initial target, with 159 and 161 other levels to watch.
The preference is to wait for a bottoming signal before entering, similar to the morning star patterns seen in December and early February. RSI (14) and MACD remain firmly bearish, reinforcing the need for patience given the setup is counter to momentum.
A convincing break below 156.21 would invalidate the setup, opening the door for shorts targeting a retest of 154.41.
Good luck!
DS
Global M2 Money Supply RSI Divergence IndicationThis chart combines #Bitcoin price across it's entire lifecycle with a new divergence indicator I created for global M2 money supply. #M2 refers to a broad measure of the total money supply in an economy; an increase of which, is a harbinger of a new flows into assets such as equities and crypto.
The lower panel displays a classic #RSI (relative strength indication) albeit applied to the aggregate of the M2 money supply for all major economies in the world. I've spent a number of years fine tuning a 'divergence' indicator for RSI which I'm now able to successfully apply to this GM2 RSI signal.
The net result when applied to the Bitcoin chart are the clusters of arrows that occur at points of divergence detection. As is evident from the chart these align extremely well with Bitcoin cycle bottoms and serve to complement the existing indicators that I use for bottom detection.
Shopify Selling. SHOPYes, similar pattern we've seen in a number of tickers today. Very early days, so a tight stop is necessary. Fifth wave gaps can and do happen.