uniQure N.V - Positive divergenceOn the above 2-week chart uniQure N.V. price action has corrected 90% without the aid of share splits. A number of reasons now exist to consider a long position. They include:
1) Price action returns to legacy support.
2) RSI resistance breakout.
3) Strong positive divergence as measured over a 2-month period. Look left.
4) No share splits.
5) Price action previously topped out at the Fibonacci 1.414. Were that performance to repeat price action would top out at $215 with a 3600% return.
Is it possible price action continues to correct? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: Investment
Risk: <6%
Timeframe for long: Qrt 1 2024
Stop loss: Will say elsewhere
M-oscillator
Can Anything Stop Broadcom?Broadcom has been one of the top-performing large cap stocks this year. Now, after a period of consolidation, some traders may see potential for further upside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the August 19 close of $167.71. AVGO initially stalled at this level and struggled to cross it in the first half of September. But it broke out later in September, and this month is trying to hold it. That may suggest that old resistance has become new support.
Second, the recent low was near the rising 21-day exponential moving average (EMA). The 8-day EMA is also above the 21-day EMA. Is a new uptrend developing in the chip stock?
Third, MACD is rising.
Finally, you have the June low of $130.25. Prices couldn’t stay below it when the broader market crashed on August 5. AVGO then proceeded to make a higher low the following month. Those signals may confirm a longer-term uptrend.
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Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
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$SPY October 4, 2024AMEX:SPY October 4, 2024
15 Minutes.
Yesterday was sideways as expected.
Today I will not take trade as AMEX:SPY closed below 200 and 100 moving averages in 15 minutes.
If I get a good close above 572 and moving averages converge at close of day, Probably Monday will give a chance to entry.
No Trade Day for me. Today too.
Kiwi breaking down as US economic data heats upNZD/USD is breaking down, slicing through uptrend support on the daily chart as we head towards nonfarm payrolls. With momentum indicators providing bearish signals, selling rallies and breaks is preferred near-term.
If we see a push back towards the former uptrend today, consider selling with a tight stop above for protection against reversal. Potential downside targets include .6157, the 50DMA and .6109 where the price bounced strongly from on September 11.
While the payrolls report could generate any number of market reactions depending on the prevailing narrative, give the threat posed by an escalation in geopolitical tensions over the weekend, riskier currencies such as the Kiwi may struggle for meaningful upside in the current environment.
Good luck!
DS
A Major Storm in the HorizonRecently we saw new All Time Highs (ATH), the indexes have been on the rise. However there's something in the works. The so called "Fear Index" TVC:VIX has been stubbornly increasing its level and for a while it has breached the 20 level. Which is the borderline from a calmed ascending market and a correction.
The level of the correction may go from just an adjustment in the trend, sending the index back to the long term moving averages, like the 50/100. This is not yet a bear market, which can't be forecasted from just the levels we have at this time.
The FED was aggressive with its first interest rate cut, the market is looking forward for margin at a discount and it knows how to ask for it. We'll have to keep an eye in the Fed balance sheet, the bond yield, inflation and unemployment.
The momentum divergences in the upper time frame have been increasing. Higher levels with lower momentum, this is a sign of reversal. So far it's about time for a trend correction, a bear market will be seen if the main moving averages (20, 50) in the Weekly are breached and its support turns into resistance.
Good Trading Everyone !
15% to 35% Upside Ahead for Corn (Divergence Strategy)Corn recently has had the monthly bullish divergence confirmed with Septembers monthly close. This has major implications for corn, as I anticipate corn to now trade up at least 15% from current prices, up to a max move of approximately 35%. Monthly divergence triggers such as this are signals that the prudent trader must pay attention to. This does not mean I anticipate this market to go straight up from here. However, it does mean that, in my opinion, dips are for buying in the Corn market until we reach these upside targets.
Have a great week.
15% to 30% Upside Ahead for Soybean Meal (Divergence Strategy)Soybean Meal recently confirmed the monthly bullish divergence with Septembers candle close. This is a significant signal that prudent traders should pay close attention to. What this signal implies is that there is a minimum 15% move to the upside from current price ahead for Soybean Meal. The high end target is a 30% upside move. This does not mean this market is going to go straight up from here. In my opinion, dips are for buying in the Soybean Meal market until we reach these upside targets.
Have a great week.
VSAT: the dead cat might bounce againVSAT has kissed the wedge bottom! (fell on a support line of the falling wedge pattern) There is a double bottom likely to develop with both MACD and RSI converging with the falling wedge support line on the price chart. (although RSI hasn't got into oversold, hasn't bottomed and turned around yet), it might upswing again, at this price level there is a long opportunity.
FYI - my average is 14.9
Adobe May Have Space to the DownsideAdobe has been struggling all year, and some traders may think the software stock has space to the downside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs since September 13. ADBE dipped below its subsequent low this week, potentially breaking a bearish descending triangle.
Next, the triangle followed a sharp gap lower after guidance disappointed.
Third, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is nearing a potential “death cross” below the 200-day SMA. That may suggest its long-term trend is getting more negative.
Finally, MACD has turned downward, and prices have remained below the falling 8-day exponential moving average. Those points may signal bearishness in the shorter term.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
Risk of bullish USD/JPY breakout growing USD/JPY is hitting the top of the range it’s been in since mid-August. With RSI (14) and MACD providing bullish signals on momentum, and having cleared the 50DMA, it feels like this attempted breakout may succeed where others have failed.
If we see a break and hold above resistance at 147.06, consider buying with a tight stop below the level for protection. Risk management is particularly important given escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The August 15 high around 149.40 would be the initial trade target with 149.70 the next after that. 151 would offer a tougher test, coinciding with the intersection of multiple levels including the 200DMA.
If the price were to reverse back below 147.06 and/or the uptrend dating back to mid-September, the near-term bullish bias would be nullified.
Good luck!
DS
$SPY October 3, 2024AMEX:SPY October 3, 2024
15 Minutes.
As expected, AMEX:SPY was in sideways sort out the two long bars of 1st October.
For the fall 574.38 to 565.27 AMEX:SPY had retraced 61.88 around 570 levels.
For the rise 565.27 to 569.9 AMEX:SPY had again retraced 61.8% of that move to 567 levels.
Now AMEX:SPY made a low at 565.27 and we can see oscillator divergence.
Hence this number is important to hold now.
If we draw an extension for the move 567.27 to 569.9 to 567.58, we can see 570 - 572 as initial target.
At the moment AMEX:SPY below 100 and 200 averages in 15 minutes.
Hence a long only above 571 with the close of bar near the top.
On downside I expect strong support around 562 563 levels being 200 averages in 60 Minutes time frame.
So, we are stuck between 563 to 571 today most probably for a buy above or sell below trade.
I expect to have a trade tomorrow, Friday.
The 3 Steps To Risk Managment Using The Rocket Booster Strategy.The rocket booster strategy is something
i have been
practising since I started trade
journals here
on Tradingview.
It took me about about 48 hours and 48 days
of studying to master this
strategy in my brain it's very simple
but do not underestimate its power
I want to show you risk management.
On this chart is the rocket booster strategy
But there is a difference.
On the chart, I have shown you a buy-limit order
and a take-profit order.
Here are the 3 steps to risk management
and profit-taking
using the rocket booster strategy for this
stock NASDAQ:AMZN :
#1-Place a buy limit order on the 50 EMA or near it.
#2-Place a take profit order on the resistance
level measured by the Bollinger bands.
#3-Do not overleverage your position-
Use margin but not too much!
Now that you know I encourage you
to read this article at least 33 times
to master this strategy.
Rocket boost this post to learn more.
Disclaimer: Trading is risky you will lose money
whether you like it or not. Please learn risk management and
profit-taking strategies.
Natgas - Pending RSI Failure SwingThis is an idea of what to look out for if natgas continues to rally into overbought RSI territory and tops out as it did in May and June of 2024 (current year). Look out for overbought RSI divergence followed by a failure swing as shown and outlined in further detail in the idea linked below, probably confirmed by MACD divergence as well. Look out for an approximately 40-day duration of top formation once RSI enters overbought territory, plus or minus 20 days. Be prepared for a max draw down of 2.14% if you short the close of the day the failure swing is confirmed. The previous gain was 29.16%. Due to the high draw down %, it may make sense to short a QG micro which is 1/4 of an NG contract, possibly adding more on the way down at your discretion. The trade entry may happen later this year, approximately mid November.
Also something to watch out for is a much sharper rise with a much shorter RSI failure swing pattern as was formed at the start of the year 2024 (current year), also shown on the chart. The drawdown was much smaller and the target much greater (50% gain) but the short duration made the failure swing more suspect. It’s better if more than just 5 days form the top and a deeper valley is formed.
This is all very hypothetical, but these are the types of swing trades I watch for and it’s good for me, if no one else, to note these potential trades as they approach. Please feel free to ask questions.
Previous failure swing idea with additional explanation:
EURUSD: Dollar going stronger than EuroThe orange circle, shows the exact moment where, at the same time, ICEUS:DX1! crossed over CME:6E1! and the 200-sma was in the middle of this crossover.
The Dollar futures are gaining stregth while on the other hand, Euro futures are falling in price.
After the crossover, a strong bearish candle cross the support, the price remain in congestion with yesterday price closing at 1.10533.
Today the price is already below a support during early september and a resistance in the week after.
Indicators: Besides the 200sma. The RSI is projecting to go overbought or at least close, while DMI- is increasing the direction and ADX is confirming the trend strength.
30% to 60% Upside Coming for Natty (Divergence Strategy)A powerful monthly bullish divergence just confirmed on natty.
We see that the CCI had a monthly close which confirmed the bullish divergence setup. In this video I review how to determine targets with this strategy, and how to determine your risk.
I anticipate a minimum 30% rally from current prices for natty, possibly heading up 60% from here. This doesn't mean this market won't have a pullback in the meantime. In my opinion, pullbacks are for buying until these price targets are reached.
If you have any questions about this strategy, feel free to shoot me a message.
Have a great week.
Harmony Gold Could Be Near a BreakoutHarmony Gold Mining rallied sharply in March and April. Now, after a period of consolidation, some traders may see potential for a breakout.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the range between $8.50 and $11. Prices are nearing the upper level. A close above may confirm resistance is fading.
Second is the series of higher weekly lows since mid-June. Those could indicate a longer-term uptrend.
Third, rising MACD may reflect bullish momentum.
Finally, the macro environment (falling interest rates and geopolitical risk) may favor gold miners like HMY.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
Bearish divergence on GBPUSD daily chart; sterling overbought?GBPUSD has been in an uptrend since April 22, 2024, and has accumulated a 9.19% increase between April 22 and September 26. On August 27, the RSI indicator recorded a reading of 74.96, signalling a possible overbought situation. On September 26, the reading was at 71.68, which was slightly lower than the previous RSI reading.
On the other hand, on August 27, GBPUSD was trading at 1.3264 before rallying to 1.3431 on September 26 – a marked gain over a monthly timespan. Sterling has since given up some of its recent gains, trading around the 1.33 mark.
The pound has notably been the top performer among G10 currencies this year, rising over 5% against the dollar and 4% against the euro. Its strong rally began in late April, following a brief dip below $1.23.
Sterling has appreciated by close to 10% against the U.S. dollar since last October. On a trade-weighted basis, sterling is now at its highest level since the UK's 2016 Brexit vote, just 2% below its pre-referendum level.
Blistering rally for sterling on BoE, Fed rate divergence
The currency's gains have been driven by expectations that UK interest rates will stay higher than those of other nations, due to persistent inflation in services and a surprisingly resilient economy.
Technical indicators, however, indicate that there may be signs of a potential reverse in the trend for sterling. Some analysts have also noted that the sterling-to-dollar pair may start to look expensive soon as expectations for a 50-basis-point (bps) rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve will start to look misplaced.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently pushed back against forecasts of another outsized 50bps cut, saying he sees two more interest rate cuts, totalling 50 basis points, this year as a baseline “if the economy performs as expected.”
Bearish divergence may be in play for GBPUSD
A classic bearish divergence occurs when the price reaches a higher high than the previous one, while the oscillator forms a lower high. This pattern often indicates a potential for a stronger pullback or trend reversal.
On October 1st, the price dipped below the 8-period Simple Moving Average, and with a classic bearish divergence currently in play, this suggests a potential bearish pullback in GBP/USD.
The sterling-to-dollar pair may drop to the 1.3028 level, where a support zone is expected on the daily chart.
Disclaimer:
76.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
Make or break day for Australia’s ASX 200For all the headlines surrounding the conflict in the Middle East, many markets remain respectful of levels on the charts, providing traders will some form of certainty in an increasingly uncertain world. Australia ASX 200 SPI futures is among that list, kissing uptrend support in overnight trade before bouncing into the close.
But whether the rebound can extend is questionable; we saw a bearish engulfing candle on Tuesday and RSI (14) has diverged from price, signalling another test of the uptrend may prove more fruitful for bears than raids of the past. MACD also looks heavy, suggesting it may soon confirm the signal from RSI.
If we see a bearish break, traders could sell with a stop above the trendline targeting an initial pullback to 8137. Below that, the 50DMA and 7918 are the next levels of note.
Alternatively, if we see another retest and bounce from the uptrend, consider reversing the setup, buying the bounce with a stop below the level for protection. The obvious target would be the record high of 8334 set in late September.
Good luck!
DS
$SPY October 1, 2024AMEX:SPY October 1, 2024
15 Minutes.
AMEX:SPY had retraced to 568 levels being 9 EMA in daily.
And gave 6-point move.
For the day due to long bars 571 572 must hold today.
Holding this we can expect 578-580 levels as first target.
Today should be sideways top sort out the 2 longs bars.
No Trade Day for me
MHUA Chinese Med Tech Penny StockMHUA is shown here on the daily chart. It is currently trading at about 90% off its high of the
year. It is in the high volume area of the long term volume profile suggesting there is sufficent
liquidity to support active trading. Recent volume spikes suggest buying volume increases with
the spikes being about 10X relative volume. Price is over the POC line of the volume profile
demonstrating that buying pressure exceeds selling pressure. Price is at or near to one
standard deviation below the mean anchored VWAP and so in the undervalued area as
confirmed by the RSI Stochastic < 20 %. Chart patterns include an engulfing " big ass " candle
on 5/1 and a three-bar strike with another engulfing green candle on 5/12. Both of these
could be considered long entry signals especially when supported by the price above the POC
and the RSI. I will take a position risking 0.25% of the trading account to begin the trading
week. I am targeting a gain of $15.00 per share being a 50% retracement back to the high
YTD and a 300% return on investment. I will take a 100 share position and close 10 shares
each time the price rises by $2.00. This will adequately mitigate the risk of a volatile penny
stock while adequately rewarding the risk taken.
US small caps coiling again following bullish breakout Traders should be alert for a breakout in Russell 2000 futures which are coiling in yet another triangle pattern. Having entered from below and with three consecutive higher closes, it feels like if there’s going to be a breakout, it’s most likely going to be bullish. Momentum indicators are pushing higher, bolstering that view.
If we see triangle resistance give way, consider buying the break with a stop beneath the level for protection. The initial target would be 2305, the high struck on September 19.
Another option would be to wait for a potential retest of triangle support. If the price were to bounce from it again, you could buy with a tight stop below for protection. Targets include triangle resistance and 2305.
Prospects for both setups would likely improve if accompanied by signs of further modest easing US labour market conditions, allowing for the Fed to cut interest rates without sparking renewed fears about demand or the broader economy.
Therefore, the JOLTS survey and ISM manufacturing PMI out later Tuesday could be very influential on the performance of small caps during the session.
Good luck!
DS