EUR/USD – Wave 3 in Play After Dominant Break | Elliott Wave + A📌 Overview:
EUR/USD is showing a strong bullish continuation setup following a clean Wave 1-2 formation, confirmed by both structure and momentum. A dominant trendline break, retest at support, and bullish signals from the Awesome Oscillator (AO) reinforce this high-probability buy scenario.
🧠 Elliott Wave Count:
Wave 1: Strong impulsive move up with solid structure.
Wave 2: Healthy correction into the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone.
Wave 3: Now initiating, expected to be the strongest leg.
🔍 Confluence Factors:
✅ Dominant Break: Price broke a descending trendline from Wave 1’s high, then retested it successfully at the green zone.
✅ 1.11813 marked as key SNR (Support & Resistance) — price is holding above it post-break.
✅ Green highlighted area = ideal buying zone aligned with:
Demand zone
Fibonacci golden zone
Structure support
✅ Awesome Oscillator (AO):
Bullish divergence between Wave 1 and Wave 2
AO histogram flipped back green = early momentum confirmation
💼 Trade Plan:
Buy Entry: Green zone (post-dominant break + SNR support)
Stop Loss: Below green zone / invalidation of structure
Take Profit 1: 1.618 – 1.88 Fib extension → 1.1216 – 1.1226
Take Profit 2: 2.618 – 2.88 Fib extension → 1.1241 – 1.1258
🎯 Strategy Notes:
Take partial profits at TP1 to reduce risk.
Let the remainder of the position run to TP2 for potential extended Wave 3.
Monitor AO and candle behavior near TP1 — possible Wave 4 may form afterward.
📈 Layered confirmation = high confidence. Trade the confluence, not the emotion.
#EURUSD #ElliottWave #Wave3 #AO #ForexStrategy #Fibonacci #StructureBreak #SupportResistance #TechnicalAnalysis
M-oscillator
BTC bull cycle comes to an end.We can see it clearly on the chart. BTC has ended the 5 waves pattern in Elliot wave count. you can see it on the chart, you can see it on the MACD & RSI.
What we are seeing now is that because of Greed & Hype no one is selling bitcoin. the up-trend we are seeing now is the result of no sellers and Hype Buyers. This is a bull trap. We can see the divergence clear as day. Stay alert and dont let them catch you this time.
XAUUSD (Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar) - Elliott Wave Count & Bullish 🌟 XAUUSD (GOLD/USD) ANALYSIS: ELLIOTT WAVE + BULLISH AO DIVERGENCE 🌟
🌊 ELLIOTT WAVE STRUCTURE
• 🐻 Wave (1): Sharp decline from 3,440.00 → 3,400.00
• ⚖️ Wave (2): Shallow retracement to 3,440.00 (classic Wave 2 correction)
• 📉 Wave (3): Extended drop to 3,350.00 (strongest bearish wave)
• ➰ Wave (4): Sideways consolidation near 3,400.00 (Fibonacci-aligned)
• 🎯 Wave (5): Final leg down to 3,184.58 (completes 5-wave impulse)
🔄 CURRENT PHASE: Potential ABC correction forming between 3,184.58 and 3,140.00, signaling reversal!
⸻
📈 BULLISH AO DIVERGENCE
• 🔽 Price Action: Wave 5 made a LOWER LOW (3,184.58 vs. Wave 3’s 3,350.00)
• 📊 AO Momentum: Awesome Oscillator formed a HIGHER LOW (-60.00 vs. -100.00)
• 💡 Interpretation: Bearish exhaustion → Reversal ahead!
⸻
🎯 KEY LEVELS & STRATEGY
• 🛡️ Support: 3,140.00 - 3,112.50 (must hold for bulls)
• 🚀 Resistance: 3,200.00 (psych level) → 3,230.00 - 3,270.00
• ✅ Entry Trigger: Close above 3,200.00 🚨 or bullish candlestick (e.g., hammer 🕯️)
• 🎯 Targets: 3,270.00 (initial) → 3,350.00 (secondary)
• ⚠️ Stop Loss: Below 3,112.50 (risk management!)
⸻
📜 CONCLUSION
• 🐂 Bullish Case: 5-wave completion + AO divergence → Reversal likely above 3,200.00
• 🚫 Invalidation: Drop below 3,112.50 kills the setup
⸻
💬 CTA: “LIKE if you spot the divergence! 🚀 Share your thoughts below ⬇️”
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: Not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
⸻
🏷️ TAGS: #XAUUSD #GOLD #ELLIOTTWAVE #AO #DIVERGENCE
EWTSU XAUUSD H4 minute wave ((4)) update
Elliott Wave Trading Set Up XAUUSD
minute wave ((4)) ending in a double zigzag (w)(x)(y) if 3196 area hold.
motive wave should follow in 5 waves (impulsive or leading diagonal)
levels to pass trough: 3230 area first then 3276 area
invalidation: wave count must be update if price break down 3175 low first and then 3165
(minute wave ((1)) )
$SPY May 14, 2025AMEX:SPY May 14, 2025
15 Minutes.
AMEX:SPY crossed 586 and made a high 589 levels.
Oscillator divergence.
Too far away from moving averages in 15 minutes.
So, a pull bac to 580 is on cards.
We have seen this setup many times.
Working in our favor.
I don't see any different this time too.
EUR/USD Stages Rapid Roundtrip1.1200 is the key level to watch for traders, with price action around it likely to provide better guidance than the barrage of conflicting macro takes doing the rounds right now. If the price remains below it, establish shorts with a stop above it for protection, and vice versa if the opposite occurs.
Even with Tuesday's snapback, the edge still leans slightly bearish after last week’s break of uptrend support. That move flagged rising downside risks, and little has changed since. RSI (14) and MACD both point to waning bullish momentum, remaining locked in downtrends that could produce firm bearish signals if they persist.
The 50-day moving average is an obvious hurdle for bears to overcome on the downside. If it were to be broken, it opens the door for a run towards support at 1.0900 and the 200-day moving average. If the price is able to push back above 1.1200 it would put resistance at 1.1276 and 1.1380 on the menu for longs.
With a quieter data calendar on Wednesday, let the price action guide you on how to best proceed.
Good luck!
DS
EWTSU EURUSD H4 minute wave ((4)) update
Elliott Wave Trade SetUp EURUSD H4
minute wave ((4)) Looks complete -
motive wave should follow in 5 waves steady above 1.1160 area - impulsive or leading triangle
To confirm the end of wave 4 the price must break the 1.13801 level upwards.
invalidation : price cant hold 1.1160 area and break below 1.1125
Its A Prime Set Up Guys, May 13th May 13th there will be a press conference with the CEO I think.
All techinals show a sharp fall will occur soon and I bet its the 13th.
Reached the top of the trend line and we are very over extended. Ying and a yang, time for the yang.
See my price path for a rough guess.
USD/CHF Elliott Wave Count – Building for Wave (5) 🌀 USD/CHF Elliott Wave Count – Building for Wave (5) 🚀
Chart Analysis – May 13, 2025
I'm tracking a well-structured 5-wave impulse on USD/CHF using Elliott Wave Theory, supported by Fibonacci confluence, Awesome Oscillator (AO) momentum shifts, and convergence-divergence signals.
🔹 Elliott Wave Count
We're currently in the corrective phase of Wave (4) after a strong Wave (3) extension. Here's the breakdown:
✅ Wave (1), (2), and (3) are clearly in place, with (3) showing healthy extension.
🔁 Wave (4) is pulling back and is now testing key support.
🔜 Anticipating a bullish Wave (5) continuation.
🔹 Key Fibonacci Levels & Buy Zone (Zone 1)
Wave (4) is approaching a high-probability reversal zone:
Zone 1 Buy Area: 0.8362 – 0.8341, marked by:
1.618–1.786 Fibonacci extension
Confluence with previous breakout structure (resistance turned support)
Classic Elliott correction depth for Wave (4)
This zone provides a strong technical base for a potential bounce into Wave (5).
🔹 Awesome Oscillator (AO) + Convergence/Divergence
AO confirms the wave count momentum:
Strong green bars during Wave (3)
Bearish red bars during Wave (4) correction
Potential bullish convergence forming:
Price is making lower lows
AO is showing higher lows – this is bullish divergence, a classic pre-Wave (5) signal
This momentum shift suggests buyers are returning, even as price dips into support — a strong signal for trend continuation.
🎯 Bias, Target & Invalidation
Trade Bias: Bullish
Buy Zone: 0.8362–0.8341 (Zone 1)
Wave (5) Target: 0.8470 – 0.8500 (based on Wave (1)-(3) projection and previous high)
Invalidation: Break and close below 0.8341 suggests deeper corrective structure or invalid wave count
✅ Summary
This setup combines:
Elliott Wave 5-impulse structure
Fibonacci confluence at key buy zone
Bullish divergence on AO supporting Wave (5) potential
Strong risk-to-reward opportunity from Zone 1
📉 Waiting for confirmation via bullish price action or stronger AO green bars before committing. Let me know your view or alternate wave counts!
#elliottwave #usdchf #wave5setup #fibonacci #awesomeoscillator #divergence #priceaction #forexanalysis #tradingview
TRBUSDT | MAJOR RESISTANCE OF THE LAST 100 DAYS🚀 TRBUSDT is currently testing a MAJOR resistance zone! 🚧🔥
After breaking out of a 134-day downtrend line 📉, and reclaiming the lowest high 🔄, TRB has now entered a critical 100-day resistance area 🧱.
📍 This zone has acted as a strong supply level in the past ⛔ — a successful breakout ✅ could open the path toward the previous major high around $95 🎯.
📈 RSI is holding above 65, indicating strong bullish momentum 💪🐂 — but the breakout still needs to be confirmed with volume 🔊 for continuation.
If rejected 🚫, a pullback to the $32–$29 support zone is likely 🛡️.
📊 Key Levels to Watch:
🔴 Resistance: $37.9 – $39.5 (MAJOR 100-DAY RESISTANCE)
🟢 Support: $32.1 and $29.0
🧠 Stay alert and manage risk wisely! 🛑
INR has made a major top against USDFall of INR against the USD began in early 1970s, or perhaps late 1960s--we don't know for sure for lack of trading data. Since then, it has depreciated against the USD in crystal-clear 5 legs, or waves according to Elliott Wave Theory (EWT). To validate EWT, there occurred a gigantic gap of 9.23% in July 1991 where third wave is supposed to be--a hallmark of third waves. Furthermore, there's even a divergence between Price and Elliott Wave Oscillator (5/35 MACD) on the Monthly chart--typical of fifth waves.
So, what's next then? Considering the time frame of the entire price move till date, I would say that a bear wave of Supercycle degree has just ended and we are looking at a 10-15 year advance in Indian Rupee against the US Dollar . In support of my forecast, INR has just posted a beautiful, unambiguous 5-wave advance in the shape of an expanding diagonal--hallmark of first waves--from 87.972 to 83.7625.
If I'm right, price should retreat a bit toward the classic 61.8% level at 86.3396, and then fall hard--and I mean very hard, with a gap--toward the levels below 80, followed by another pause and a small retreat, and another fall, thereby completing a set of 5 distinct waves . Should price follow the path of my forecast to that point, we would have a definite confirmation on hand that a Supercycle bear wave has indeed ended.
The final target of this Supercycle bull wave of INR vs. USD? It's too early and too far ahead to hazard a guess, but as per EWT principles, it should be somewhere close to 44. Yes. 1$ = ₹44. I hope I live to see that day. It's going to take a while, till 2040 perhaps, but we'll get there alright.
Ethereum Is Quietly Preparing for a Massive Move !Hello Traders 🐺
In this idea, I want to show you one of the coolest charts I’ve ever seen in my life — seriously!
These kinds of patterns, especially on the monthly time frame, take multiple years to form, and that’s exactly why they are extremely valid. When a structure develops on higher time frames, we can rely on it more confidently and make smarter decisions 📊
As you can see on the chart, ETH price is moving inside a very clear ascending channel, and its reactions to the channel lines are simply beautiful. Let’s take a closer look:
In addition to the top and bottom of the channel, we also have a “make or break” level, shown by the blue dotted line (which is the middle line of the channel).
Price reactions to this line throughout different time periods have been amazing. And here's the more interesting part:
👉 Price is currently above the middle line, and on its way up, it’s approaching one of the most critical resistance levels — the orange descending trendline.
If we zoom out, we’ll see that ETH is actually squeezed between this descending resistance and the ascending channel's middle line, forming a beautiful triangle 🔺
If ETH can break above this triangle, we could see a massive surge, possibly taking price all the way up to the top of the channel, which in my opinion is somewhere around $15,000 🚀
Now let’s talk about RSI:
If you take a closer look at the RSI below the chart, you’ll notice a repetitive pattern.
Each time ETH enters a major bull run or makes a new all-time high, RSI touches the upper resistance in the overbought zone.
We’re still in the early stage of this cycle — and both technically and indicator-wise, there seems to be plenty of room to grow.
Hope you enjoy this idea — I’ll be happy to answer your questions in the comments below 👇
And as always, remember our golden rule:
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, but almost always profitable 🐺
🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
Netflix is going to fall sharply soonNetflix is in the huge 5th wave extension. I expect it to complete wave (v) of 5 very soon, probably within the next week.
RSI divergence on 3-days, weekly frames is quite visible and supports the upcoming trend reversal.
When wave 5 is extended, retracement typically goes to the bottom of wave (ii) of this 5th wave. This would mean 1180-1195 USD to end the wave 5. Also, at this price wave 5 will be 2.168 times bigger than waves 1 and 3 together.
5/8/25 - UL: new SELL mechanical trading signal.5/8/25 - UL: new SELL signal chosen by a rules based, mechanical trading system.
UL - SELL SHORT
Stop Loss @ 65.43
Entry SELL SHORT @ 62.58
Target Profit @ 56.37
Analysis:
Higher timeframe: Prices have stayed below the upper channel line of the ATR (Average True Range) Keltner Channel and reversed.
Higher timeframe: Victor Sperandeo's (Trader Vic) classic 1-2-3/2B SELL pattern...where the current highest top breakout price is less or only slightly peaking higher than the preceding top price.
Gold Miners May Be FatiguedThe VanEck Gold Miners ETF had a major breakout in March, but some traders may think it’s getting fatigued.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of candles on April 16-22. Those bars occurred at the highest levels in almost four years. They’re also solid, illustrating that price wasn't able to hold the peaks.
Second, GDX fell sharply afterwards and made a lower high last week. That could mean April represented a peak. It could additionally suggest a new downward channel is taking shape.
Third, MACD is falling.
Next, gold and gold miners have benefited from the uncertainty caused by tariffs. Now, with signs of the trade war easing, some traders may find less appeal in the yellow metal.
Finally, GDX is an active underlier in the options market. (It averages more than 140,000 contracts per session, according to TradeStation Data.) That could help traders take positions with calls and puts.
Standardized Performances for the ETF mentioned above:
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
1-year: +47.93%
5-years: +51.92%
10-year: +143.71%
(As of April 30, 2025)
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Nasdaq 100: Bulls in Control for Now, but Key Hurdles RemainNasdaq 100 futures have gapped higher upon the Asia market open, leaving them sitting above the important 200-day moving average. With momentum indicators like RSI (14) and MACD generating bullish signals, it’s an environment that favours buying dips and topside breaks.
However, the coast is not entirely clear for bulls with the price struggling to take out the March 28 high of 20,536. The January 2023 uptrend is also nearby, sitting just above 20,600. Zooming out, the price has also been coiling in a rising wedge pattern, warning there may be an eventual resumption of the bearish trend seen between late February and early April.
While some bulls may be willing to buy above the 200-day moving average with a stop beneath for protection, others may prefer to wait for a decisive push above the top of the resistance zone around 20,650 before establishing positions. Topside levels to keep on the radar include 21,000, 21,420 and 21,969.
If the price were to reverse back below the 200-day moving average and close there, it would swing near-term directional risks lower, invalidating the bullish bias.
Good luck!
DS
RSI 101: The Secret of RSI’s WMA45 Line and How to Use ItIn my trading method, I use the WMA45 line together with RSI to help spot the trend more clearly.
Today, I’ll share with you how it works and how to apply it — whether you're doing scalping or swing trading.
Why WMA45?
WMA (Weighted Moving Average) is a type of moving average where recent prices are given more importance.
WMA45 simply means it takes the average of the last 45 candles (could be 45 minutes, 45 hours, or 45 days depending on your chart).
Because it moves slower than RSI, it helps reduce the “noise” and gives you a better idea of the real trend.
This idea is not new — many traders have tested RSI strategies also use this line. I just applied and adjusted it in my own way.
👉 How to set it up on TradingView (very simple):
What WMA45 Tells You
Trending
This line shows you the overall direction of the market:
📉 If WMA45 is going down, the price is likely going down.
📈 If WMA45 is going up, the price is likely going up.
Also, the steeper the line, the stronger the trend is:
Looking at the example above, the WMA45 line starts from the same level in two different phases, but the slope is different. The steeper line shows a larger price range.
This happens because the price was more volatile, which caused the RSI to move more sharply, and that, in turn, made the WMA45 slope steeper.
In multi-timeframe analysis, when the trend on the higher timeframe is strong (shown by a steep WMA45 line), the RSI on the lower timeframe will usually move within a tighter range and react more accurately to key levels.
If you’re not sure what these key RSI levels are, check out my previous post here:
For example, in a strong downtrend on H1, RSI on M5 might not even reach 50:
✅ What does this mean for trading?
Use WMA45 on higher timeframes to define trend bias.
On lower timeframes, watch RSI responses at key zones for optimal entries.
When holding positions, WMA45 helps determine whether to stay in the trade.
Moving Sideways
Here’s something important to note: when WMA45 is flat, RSI will keep crossing back and forth over it.
Depending on where WMA45 is flat, RSI tends to move within that range and creates different sideways price patterns. Here are the main types:
Around 50 → price moves in a box: According to RSI theory, the 50 level is the balance between buyers and sellers. RSI fluctuating around this causes price to move sideways in a rectangular box range.
Above 50 → price goes up in a rising channel: Above 50 is where buyers dominate sellers. RSI operating in this zone will continually create bullish candles pushing the price upward.
Below 50 → price goes down in a falling channel: Below 50 is where sellers dominate buyers. RSI in this zone will consistently form lower highs and lower lows, pushing the price downward.
Trend Reversal of WMA45
WMA45 is calculated from the average of 45 candles, so it's almost impossible for it to reverse direction suddenly. When it's sloping (trending), it takes time for RSI to fluctuate enough to "flatten" it before it can reverse.
As shown in the example, after WMA45 slopes up, before it turns downward, RSI must cross back and forth through it to reduce the steepness => flatten it => then reverse.
Does this align with Dow Theory? It represents the phases: Trend > Sideway > Trend. Sideway is when the WMA45 line is flattened.
✅ What does this mean for trading?
After a trend forms, if you want to enter a counter-trend trade, patiently wait for WMA45 to flatten to confirm the previous trend has ended.
Dynamic Support and Resistance
In addition to being a trend indicator for RSI, WMA45 also serves as a dynamic support/resistance level for RSI.
You will often observe RSI reacting when it encounters the WMA45 line.
In an uptrend, WMA45 acts as support for RSI.
In a downtrend, WMA45 acts as resistance for RSI.
Notably, if the reactions occur at higher RSI values, the resulting price support is stronger. Conversely, if reactions happen at lower RSI values, the price is pushed down further.
In the above example, in the first reaction around RSI 60s, RSI dropped by 9.6 points and price dropped by 12 points. In the second reaction at RSI 40s, RSI dropped similarly, but the price dropped by 25 points.
✅ What does this mean for trading?
You can use WMA45 as an entry zone for your trade: Wait for reactions with WMA45 on the higher timeframe, then switch to a lower timeframe to find a trade entry.
Use WMA45 as a take-profit or stop-loss level: For a short trade near WMA45, you can stop out if RSI crosses above it.
When monitoring these reactions, pay attention to the number of reactions—more reactions require more caution in trading.
Some Trade Setups Using WMA45 and RSI
1. Intraday trading
Trend: Follow the trend on the H1 chart.
Entry zone: At WMA45 of H1.
Entry confirmation: 2 methods:
On M5: when WMA45 of RSI is already flattened, and RSI has crossed above WMA45.
On M5: when a divergence appears in RSI.
2. Scalping
With the RSI’s reaction to WMA45, even on smaller timeframes (M1, M5), you can scalp when RSI touches WMA45.
When WMA45 has a slope and RSI returns to touch it, you can enter a trade with SL behind the candle close (10–20 pips to avoid stop hunts and spread), and TP to the nearest peak.
As mentioned, the first touch gives the best reaction.
My trading system is entirely based on RSI, feel free to follow me for technical analysis and discussions using RSI.
4H BTC Macro MovementsBTC found new life the last two days pushing up while leaving quite a bit of liquidity below as downward rocket fuel.
We have strong resistance at 104,800 zone above. We could get a pump candle wick to the upside and reject from there. It would bring in the heavy fomo and activate gravity below.
The mini range we are currently in (the flag) has nice value areas that have ping ponged us along this mini point of control prepping for continuation or a strong reversal. We cannot stay here much longer.
Nami indicator below us is showing RSI and momentum moving down while moneyflow is looking higher. Mixed signals can indicate manipulation. So while everyone screams for the moon, correction is the fuel to get there.
There is a nice previous week high + 27.9 breaker block around 98,000.
Not ever financial advice.