Books on trading and Profitunity strategy by Bill WilliamsIn this article, I will share books that were useful for me in the process of studying trading and the Profitunity trading strategy by Bill Williams.
Bill Williams "Trading Chaos 1 and 2" ♡
The first and third books by Bill Williams contain complete and up-to-date information on the Profitunity strategy. The second book "New Trading Dimensions" is intermediate and less relevant.
The book Trading Chaos 1 includes trading psychology (an integral part of trading), the basics of understanding the markets, candlestick patterns (divergent bars and determining the trend based on a pair of bars, the market facilitation index, volume and squat bar), Elliott waves (characteristics, determining waves using the MACD 5/34/5 indicator, an analogue of the modern Awesome Oscillator, and the Fibonacci ratio), fractals, trading in waves (impulses 1-3-5 and ABC correction). And also very important topics — how to work with your internal structure and how our brain functions (Chapter 11).
The book Trading Chaos 2 (co-authored by Bill Williams' daughter Justine Gregory) includes a description of the Alligator indicator in combination with the Awesome Oscillator, divergent bars and fractals. And also tools for working on yourself - morning pages (Chapter 13, from the book by Julia Cameron "The Artist's Way") and autogenic training for traders by Johannes Schultz (Appendix 3).
Tom Hougaard "Best Loser Wins" ♡
The book greatly expands the perception of markets, the approach to trading and deeply describes the psychology of trading.
The book was first published in 2022 and perfectly complements the books by Bill Williams.
John J. Murphy "Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets"
A basic book on classical (linear) technical analysis, which also contains up-to-date information on Elliott Wave Theory in addition to the corresponding section in the book by Bill Williams "Trading Chaos 1".
Alexander Elder "Trading for a living" (How to Play and Win on the Stock Exchange)
A book on the psychology of trading and classical chart analysis, includes a detailed description of popular indicators and a description of the basic strategy "Three Screens" (analysis of the chart on the senior and junior timeframes), as well as an important topic "Risk management".
Steve Nison "Japanese Candlesticks"
A basic book on classical candlestick (bar) analysis.
Thomas DeMark "Technical Analysis - a new science"
Constructing trend lines based on the support price minimums and maximums described in the book led me to search for an indicator that displays such bars, as a result, I first became acquainted with the Bill Williams Fractals indicator, even before I became acquainted with his strategy.
Theodore Dreiser "The Financier" ☽
A novel published in 1912 based on the life story of the American millionaire Charles Yerkes (1837-1905). The book shows how the financial and economic environment surrounding the main character (Frank Cowperwood) already from childhood forms in him the psychology of a businessman and stock dealer...
Robin Sharma "The 5 AM Club" ☆
This book is not about trading, but about healthy habits. But for me the book became useful, including in trading, because I made the following conclusion for myself - it is important to rest (take breaks) every day, and not only on weekends and vacations. And it is worth starting with the fact that after waking up there is free time (about 1 hour) before business activity begins, i.e. either wake up earlier, or move all things forward, so that you can start your day easily. And taking breaks in trading is very important, so I recommend paying attention, for example, to the algorithm for removing limitations using neurographics.
(◉ ‿ ◉) There are many good books, as well as good strategies, but I am sure that only independent deep study, practice, good concentration and self-control will allow you to find your own understanding of the markets and your own approach to successful trading.
M-trader
MarketBreakdown | EURUSD, EURJPY, GBPCAD, GBPNZD
Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list.
1️⃣ EURUSD daily time frame 🇪🇺🇺🇸
EURUSD looks heavily overbought after a recent strong bullish rally.
The price started a correctional movement and broke a solid rising trend line.
I think that the pair will continue the correction to lower levels.
2️⃣ EURJPY daily time frame 🇪🇺🇯🇵
I see a classic bearish accumulation pattern - a descending triangle formation.
Bearish breakout of the neckline of the pattern and a daily candle close below
that will be an important event that will most likely trigger a strong bearish reaction.
Alternatively, a bullish breakout of a trend line can be a strong bullish signal
3️⃣GBPCAD daily time frame 🇬🇧🇨🇦
The price formed an inverted cup & handle pattern after a test of a key daily
horizontal resistance.
A breakout of the neckline of the pattern signifies a highly probable continuation
of a retracement from the underlined read area.
4️⃣ GBPNZD daily time frame 🇬🇧🇳🇿
I see a confirmed breakout of a neckline of a huge descending triangle formation.
The broken structure and a falling trend line compose a contracting supply zone now.
I will expect a bearish movement from that to lower structure levels.
Do you agree with my market breakdown?
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Does the USD/JPY Bounce Have More to Give? Does the USD/JPY Bounce Have More to Give?
Credit Agricole anticipates a potential rally in USD/JPY this week, hinging on market reactions to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming address at Jackson Hole. The bank suggests that traders might need to recalibrate their expectations for Fed rate cuts.
Current market sentiment, as reflected in the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, shows a 77.5% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut and a 22.5% chance of a 50 basis-point cut. Goldman Sachs’ chief economist, David Mericle, also aligns with the 25 basis-point outlook for September, downplaying the likelihood of a more aggressive move.
The focus will be on Powell’s speech, scheduled for Friday at 10 a.m. ET. Should Powell strike a less dovish tone than expected, key resistance levels at 150.00 and 152.00 could be tested, with the potential for USD/JPY to surge even higher.
Gold buyLast week gold was in a downward 👇 momentum then at the end of the week gold has turned up to bullish momentum as you can see on my chart gold can go to its extended fibbonaci level of 38.2 which is marked as 2519 level and next resistance can be 2530 but the the chances to see gold moving back from 2519 tp 30 level so till now for the next week we can a consolidation on this level and gold can move back too
Beware of Trading on Public Holidays!
In this educational article, we will discuss why is it recommendable not to trade during the public holidays. I will explain to you how banking holidays affect the financial markets and how it may impact your trading.
WHY???
🏦 The main source of problems comes from the fact that the big market players like:
banks,
hedge funds
investing firms
are absent.
Similarly to ordinary people, bankers and investors prefer to spend the holidays with their relatives and friends instead of staring at charts on Holidays.
HOW???
But how does it affect the market?
Big players are the main source of the market liquidity.
The liquidity itself is the measure to which an asset can be quickly bought or sold in the market at a price of its quotes.
Therefore, when the big players are missing, the market liquidity drops.
WHAT???
1️⃣ That fact instantly reflects in the market spreads.
They become substantially bigger, directly increasing the costs of each trade and making it problematic to open a position at a desired price.
2️⃣ Secondly, low liquidity leads to a decrease in volatility.
The market becomes weak and indecisive.
As traders, we make the money on market moves. Our goal is to catch a bullish or a bearish wave. Their absence deprives us of profits or, at least, dramatically decreases them.
Look at a chart above, it is EURJPY on a 4H time frame. Look how weak and boring the pair was in US Independence Day - official US banking holiday.
And here is how weak and slow was Gold during US Independence Day on an hourly time frame .
3️⃣ Thirdly, when the liquidity is low, even small market participants can move the market.
It dramatically increases the probabilities of false signals. Relatively low trading volumes may manipulate the market, substantially decreasing the efficiency of technical and fundamental analysis.
Look at a density of false breakout on Dollar Index DXY on 15 minutes time frame the 19th of June - Juneteenth National Independence Day in US.
All these breakouts were the manipulations and false signals.
The increased costs of trading, low volatility and manipulations should have convinced you to stay from charts during the holidays season.
However, the main reason to not trade on holidays is much simpler.
Holidays give you an opportunity to stay with your family, to take a break, to recharge and relax. Even a part-time trading is very exhausting and requires a constant attention. Let yourself be distracted and return after holidays.
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GBP/AUD Short, NZD/JPY Short, USD/CAD Short and EUR/CAD ShortGBP/AUD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If area of value tapped into, risk entry after a 1 hour rejection from it.
NZD/JPY Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
USD/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
EUR/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
GBP/AUD Short, USD/CAD Short, NZD/USD Long and GBP/CHF ShortGBP/AUD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If area of value tapped into, risk entry after a 1 hour rejection from it.
USD/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
NZD/USD Long
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse up above area of value.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
GBP/CHF Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
Gold BuyTomorrow we are expecting a Bull move in Gold and Gold will move toward its Previous significant Resistance level of 2458 level so we will have a buy trade over gold to this level of resistance also gold is following its channel to the Upside so we will be relying on gold to the upside momentum
AUD/NZD Short, GBP/CHF Short, EUR/JPY Short and GBP/JPY ShortAUD/NZD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
GBP/CHF Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
EUR/JPY Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
GBP/JPY Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
Trading Psychology: The Key to Successful Investing🔷 Trading Psychology: The Key to Successful Investing 🔷
1. Introduction
Trading psychology examines how traders' emotional and mental states influence their trading decisions. Many traders believe that success in trading only requires technical analysis and market knowledge. However, controlling emotions and having the right mental approach are crucial elements for being a successful trader. This article will delve into why trading psychology is essential, the common psychological pitfalls traders face, and strategies to overcome them.
2. The Importance of Trading Psychology
Understanding trading psychology is vital because it helps traders recognize the impact of their emotions on their trading behavior. Emotions such as fear, greed, and overconfidence can lead to irrational decisions, resulting in significant losses. For instance, fear might cause a trader to exit a position prematurely, missing out on potential profits. On the other hand, greed can lead to overtrading and taking excessive risks. By being aware of these emotions, traders can develop strategies to mitigate their effects and make more rational decisions.
3. Common Psychological Pitfalls in Trading
Several psychological traps can hinder a trader's success. One common pitfall is the fear of missing out (FOMO), which can cause traders to enter trades impulsively without proper analysis. Another is the sunk cost fallacy, where traders hold onto losing positions hoping they will eventually turn profitable, instead of cutting their losses. Overconfidence can also be detrimental, leading traders to underestimate risks and overestimate their market knowledge. Recognizing these pitfalls is the first step towards avoiding them.
4. Strategies to Improve Trading Psychology
Developing a robust trading plan and sticking to it is one effective strategy to improve trading psychology. A trading plan outlines entry and exit points, risk management rules, and criteria for trade selection, helping traders stay disciplined. Mindfulness and stress management techniques, such as meditation and deep breathing exercises, can also help traders maintain emotional balance. Keeping a trading journal to record trades and emotions experienced during those trades can provide valuable insights and help identify patterns that need addressing.
5. The Role of Continuous Learning
Continuous learning and self-improvement play a significant role in mastering trading psychology. Engaging in regular education through books, webinars, and courses can enhance a trader's knowledge and confidence. Additionally, joining trading communities and seeking mentorship can provide support and feedback, helping traders stay motivated and focused. Embracing a growth mindset, where failures are seen as learning opportunities, can foster resilience and long-term success.
🔷 Conclusion
Trading psychology is an integral part of successful trading. By understanding the impact of emotions on trading decisions and implementing strategies to manage them, traders can improve their performance and achieve their financial goals. Recognizing common psychological pitfalls and committing to continuous learning are essential steps towards mastering the mental aspect of trading.
XAGUSD:Clear Bearish Pattern Signals Potential Short OpportunityHey Realistic Traders, let's dive into the technical analysis of OANDA:XAGUSD
XAGUSD has consistently moved below the EMA90 line, indicating a strong bearish trend. Historically, it also broke the Ascending Broadening Wedge (ABW) pattern, and more recently, it broke out of the symmetrical triangle. This second breakout strengthens the possibility of continued bearish movement. Additionally, the MACD has formed a bearish crossover, where the MACD line crosses below the signal line, suggesting potential downward momentum. These technical indicators support a potential downside movement to 26.02030 (Target 1) and 25.44300 (Target 2).
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/resistance area is reached.
Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on XAGUSD."
Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below.
EUR/USD Short, GBP/JPY Short, AUD/NZD Short and GBP/CHF ShortEUR/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 15 min risk entry within it.
GBP/JPY Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
AUD/NZD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 15 min risk entry within it.
GBP/CHF Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
GBP/NZD Short, USD/CAD Short and EUR/USD ShortGBP/NZD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
USD/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Break above area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
EUR/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
EUR/NZD Short and USD/CAD ShortEUR/NZD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
USD/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If tight 5 min continuation, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
Red Monday: Emergency rate cut needed? US equities just experienced their worst day since 2022, with the S&P 500 dropping 3.0%, the Nasdaq falling 3.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting by 1033 points. All sectors in the US saw declines, with mega-cap tech stocks performing particularly poorly. Notably, NVIDIA saw a sharp fall of 15% during the trading day, though it managed to “recover”, ending down 6.4%.
Some have called for an emergency rate cut from the Fed, but this is unlikely as this event, as it stands, is not an existential threat to the markets. It's just a large sell off.
Did US stocks get off lightly?
Ahead of the US trading session, Japan's stock market experienced its steepest decline since Wall Street's Black Monday in 1987, fueling fears of widespread market instability.
Despite the severe sell-off, some relief came from the ISM Services PMI, which indicated a stronger rebound in the services sector, helping to alleviate investor concerns to some extent. Riskier assets, such as Bitcoin, were not spared, plunging from nearly $62,000 on Friday to around $54,000 by Monday.
Contributing factors to the market turmoil include fears that the Federal Reserve is lagging in cutting interest rates, potential unwinding of the Yen carry trade, and the Sahm rule signaling the onset of a recession.
This rule signals the onset of a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more above its lowest point in the past year. The threshold was surpassed recently when the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%.
AUD/NZD Short, NZD/CAD Short and WTICO/USD ShortAUD/NZD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 15 min risk entry within it.
NZD/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
WTICO/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If 3 touch 5 min continuation or 2 touch 5 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
AUD/NZD Short, AUD/CAD Short, WTICO/USD Short and NZD/CAD ShortAUD/NZD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 15 min risk entry within it.
AUD/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 15 min risk entry within it.
WTICO/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
NZD/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
AUD/USD Short, NZD/CAD Short, EUR/NZD Long and NZD/JPY ShortAUD/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
NZD/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
EUR/NZD Long
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse up above area of interest.
• If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
NZD/JPY Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
EUR/NZD Short and AUD/NZD LongEUR/NZD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Break above area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If 3 touch 5 min continuation or 2 touch 5 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
AUD/NZD Long
Minimum entry requirements:
• If area of value tapped into by way of a three touch structural approach, risk entry after a 15 min rejection from it.
NZDCHF: Time For Pullback 🇳🇿🇨🇭
NZDCHF may bounce from a key daily historic support.
After its test, the price formed a cup & handle pattern on a 4H time frame
and broke its neckline with a bullish imbalance.
I expect a bullish move to a falling trend line.
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