When the pandemic shocked markets in 2020, the Fed quickly printed trillions of dollars (while purchasing bonds to support corporations and the government). As the U.S central bank’s balance sheet surged, so did the broad money supply in close parallel with stock markets and gold prices. Unlike the Fed’s intervention during the Great Financial Crisis — plus a...
Macro Monday 61 Fed Balance Sheet Hits Long Term Supporting Trend Line The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet The balance sheet is published weekly, typically on Thursday afternoons, and it provides valuable information on the direction of global liquidity and the fed’s monetary policy. When the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet increases, it means that the...
In this analysis I want to talk about the M2 Global Money Supply indicator. This indicator basically shows how much money there is in circulation and how much is being printed. The indicator itself is not that usefull since it's just going up (more money is printed over time). However, the rate at which money is printed is more interesting, hence I slapped an...
GLOBAL MONEY SUPPLY vs CRYPTO Relation Global Money Supply Breaking Upwards has historically led to All of Crypto Breaking Upwards CRYPTOCAP:BTC CRYPTOCAP:SOL CRYPTOCAP:ETH etc Right now, Global Money Supply (Global M2) is breaking upwards to new all-time highs. Publishing to follow, as I am relatively 'newer' at using macro tools such as Global Money...
Out of curiosity I took a look M2 to see the trends over the years and how it compares to COVID and the last few years. I don't have any great revelations to share about what to do, but I thought the chart was interesting. I also did some research and used ChatGPT to help me create a summary about M2. Please note that I cannot guarantee the following text is...
MACRO MONDAY 8 S&P500 / M2 Money Supply ( SP:SPX / $WMN2S) M2 is a broad measure of the US money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and other types of deposits that are readily convertible to cash such as CDs. M2 is seen as a reliable metric for forecasting/predicting inflation and for this reason it can be used as leading economic indicator....
What does it do You see what could be a continuation inverse head and shoulders and the two targets. PLAN B hot alot of people wrecked last time, and he still adamant #BTC will hit $500K this cycle. The chart says otherwise and more likely we peak above the high meet the linear target & double top (at least for now ) what say you?
1. Liquidity and Investments: An increase in M2 typically means there is more liquidity in the economy, as consumers and businesses have more cash or cash-equivalents at their disposal. This excess liquidity can lead to increased investment in stocks, including those in the S&P 500, driving up stock prices. 2. Economic Expectations: A growing money supply can...
Bitcoin is highly correlated with the M2 money supply. Saying this, when the correlation is negative, i.e., periods when BTC is declining but the M2 is increasing, it is usually a good time to accumulate BTC as the price will sooner or later catch up with its long-term correlation with the M2.
In order to get the decimal point to the right of a number, I had to multiply AMEX:SPY by 1,000,000,000,000 or 1 Trillion. The price of the market is unchanged since January 1997 with the adjustment. That is an incredible 26 years where prices haven't bean 'inflation as measured by the quantity of money' floating around in the banking system. Nominally, our...
We've been stuck at 50% real valuation of '00 crash for 23 years. 2007, 07, 18, 20 and 22 crash all caped by the same level. Big questions is, up or down? For now down. 3M rejection and currently retesting until Jan. But if we break the ATH on the nominal SPX chart will be running hard! There you will have your blow of top. Not sure if project zimbabwe...
The green trendline serves as the ultimate go signal, and a close above it would typically signify the onset of the parabolic movement stage for the asset. Besides that, every bounce presents potential trade opportunities for those who prefer not to hold this particular asset class long-term. I foresee the first substantial test for this asset class occurring...
This in the past five years has been a very strong topping signal, I'm not sure if there's much more to add. The platform wants me to add some blurb to meet it's guidelines but what can I tell? The chart speaks for itself. Hope you've found it useful, it's certainly one of many things I have included into my market model.
In today's chart, we look at the S&P500 divided by the WM2NS (money supply). The upward trend of the S&P500 has been unstoppable since 2009 and has climbed to new heights since 2013. > However, as soon as you divide the chart with the "MONEY QUANTITY", the unadulterated chart = the reluctant truth is revealed. = Regardless of the rising price of the index, it...
M2 is getting a lot of attention, but is it really driving markets? M2 is the Federal Reserve's estimate of the total money supply including all cash hand, money deposited in checking accounts, savings accounts, and other short term savings. The rate of change for M2 over the past 3 years has been the steepest incline and decline in the M2 rate of change in...
The Fed is damned by inflation if they print, damned by bank runs if they dont print. And with recession on the way, history shows we could plumb to new lows if the Fed only prints enough to backstop banks and pensions. Early 2000s and early 1930s were two such cases where the Fed aggressively lowered rates for well over 18 months but markets continued to trend...
Just a quick comparison between the gold price and overall money supply. Seems like there may be some catching up to do.
The assumptions are that money printing is real inflation as is often stated by Peter Schiff and M2 money supply is a good measure of the amount of money that has been printed into circulation. This data goes back to 1959 and makes the dot com bubble in 2000 look much more exuberant than current price levels. There is room for downside from here as the 1966 to...