8-minute video where I gloss over the big picture stuff relating to the Markets and as they relate to the M2 (WM2NS) Money Stock. This is a High Time Frame analysis of the Market charts like the Dow and SP500 vs the Printing of Money and the increase in Money Supply. Basically, the entire market exists as a function of printing money, organic growth hasn't been...
This is a medium term swing/position trade that has a pretty good chance to play out. Check out this fib idea below which underscores the idea. Obviously, don't panic buy unless you like riskier trades. Ease into your entry! June thru October looks like a decent entry if nothing too crazy happens, but a surprise via some global disaster could RUIN this trade....
Will the break out ensue? Or will we see March 2020 lows? Looks frothy.
This is a pretty bleak chart illustrating how printing more bad money is not the solution to a broken monetary system. The FRED:M2 can be seen gradually increasing at around a 30 or so degree slope until about 2011 onward where it becomes steeper... then at the beginning of the pandemic -- it turns parabolic. During the same period you can see the FRED:M2V ...
Just a combination of a couple old charts, but I wanted to make clear why assets are rising post 2008. There seems to be a direct correlation and causal relationship in FED ownership of assets as a percentage of M2 and asset prices when adjusted for M2. Lots of other charts seem to imply this by charting other things but this one shows the actual thing side by...
Every ten years M2 roughly doubles. Current rates of money supply creation do not appear to be unsustainable. Runaway money supply inflation can only occur if the rate of money supply creation accelerates long term, i.e. M2 forms a parabola on its log chart.
Equally Weighted M2 Adjusted S&P + Russell looks like it will turn negative soon in terms of moving averages. If this week closes at the current price, it will be the first time the 400 MA started to decline slightly since 2020, and if sustained will be the first time since the 2000-2008 era. It took 8 years to turn back positive in 2016. Almost any combination of...
Suppose you wanted to ask the question, hypothetical of course: What percentage of the economy does the FED balance sheet comprise of? If you were to replace "the economy" with "M2", then you could get something easily measurable. Simply use the symbol: FRED:WALCL/1000/FRED:WM2NS One is measured in billions, the other millions, so we divide by 1000 (I say just...
The FED's monetary policy is a lot like that scene in the Wizard of Oz where they think they are communicating with a great and supremely powerful wizard, but Dorothy's dog incidentally pulls back the curtain while sniffing his leg. To the disdain of Dorothy, Tin and Straw man, it's just some goofy looking guy pulling levers and talking through a loudspeaker while...
v2.1 - Update broken chart due too trading view changes. The global loosening cycle is coming starting with china and soon the Fed in the USA will drop the mirage of tightening conditions. (IMO) Go long in select area with my personal favorite towards commodity exposed value stocks.
When they say don't fight the fed, I am pretty sure this chart explains why. The massive growth of the S&P over the last 2 years is perfectly correlated to the Fed's unprecedented financial manipulation. Let's all hope that it does not come crashing down just as fast. It will be a miracle for the Fed to engineering a "soft landing" after such reckless policy for...
Notice how everyone's wages were doing fine for TWO DECADES after Volcker was the FED chair? It's not coincidence. He was the most criticized FED chair in history because his policies WORKED for the working class. Fast forward to today, and we have turned the dollar into infinitely dividing pieces of confetti. These clowns at the FED are nothing more than puppets...
Today we have a very simple idea. When to invest in S&P 500 vs Oil. The white centerline is the center of the logarithmic price distribution. The red line at the top is +2 standard deviations: unlikely events in favor of Oil will put the price here. The green line is the opposite, -2 standard deviations: unlikely events in favor of the S&P will put the price...
People think oil just went to "record high prices". But this is a perspective that has been distorted by money supply growth. It's also targeted propaganda specifically to make you think and HOPE that it won't go any higher. If you account for money supply growth, you get a sideways chart. Not a coincidence. Good luck and hedge your bets
This compares the 2008 peak in oil prices to our oil prices today, relative to the M2 Money Supply. What is 125 today would have been 48 dollars in 2008, relative to M2.
In the chart is the M2 adjusted price of gasoline matched to the current price. It measures the portion of total dollars it would take to purchase a gallon of gasoline. Essentially it's a chart of dollar strength in gasoline terms. Chart up = strong gas, weak dollar. Chart down = weak gas, strong dollar. The white trendline in the center is the longterm linear...
Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) is forming an immature cup and handle on the monthly with a price target of $2600. On the weekly, we see it has broken above this triangle as you see in the chart below. That move is not confirmed yet either, but if next week, gold trades above this week's close, then we set a price target of $2060 and set a stop loss below the recent...
Purchasing power gains lost. PE ratio is 15. So where are the real gains? Should we be expected to wait 15 years to get our dissolving dollars back from dividends? Good luck and hedge your bets.