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M2

Don't Be Fooled By DissonanceMarket participants are often fooled by the dissonance of nominal yields versus real yields. Ie, what is the nominal return of the S&P, versus the return of the S&P per dollar that exists? The money supply has become merely a proxy to supply hedgers against the dollar with scarce assets via cheap, practically free, dollars. But if you look at the real rate of dollars per S&P share, this seems to have been a leading indicator which preceded a period of decline. Not only is the divergence present, there's an overall dominant divergent structure that appears when you combine the trend of these singular divergences (purple). This is in stark contrast to the bull market in the 80s/90s (green). Very interesting. Cheers and good luck out there!
SP:SPX
by fringe_chartist
S&P 500 Has a Lot More Room to Grow, Too Early for a Recession.If you look at the S&P500 index ( TVC:SPX ) chart, you find that it has reached, and even surpassed, the previous high at 3393.5 which occurred just before the CV19 drop in March 2020. The last close on 31 December 2020 was at 3760. However, many attribute the recent V-shaped recovery to the Quantitative Easing scheme by the Federal Reserve, which makes a lot of sense. Printing money accelerates inflation and raises the prices of everything including stocks. If you haven't yet, look at the M2 Money Supply ( FRED:M2 ) (chart below) to get a feel for the scale of the increase in money supply during 2020 relative to the past 20 years. Below is the chart of SPX for the past 20 years. Below is the chart of M2 money supply for the past 20 years. Notice the jump in the last year. This analysis looks instead at the chart of SPX divided by M2 . That gives us an inflation-adjusted look at SPX. We notice that the index has not yet achieved the V-shaped recovery. It is 2/3 of the way there. What's more, even the Feb 2020 high is not higher than the 2007 high that was just before the house mortgage crisis, and the latter is not higher than the dot-com bubble high in 2000. This simply means that making money through the S&P500 is not really making money, not really increasing the value of your holdings, but it is rather a mere hedge against inflation; and a failed hedge at that. It hasn't even achieved previous highs. With all that being said, I do not believe that the March 2020 correction was anything to be scared of. I think we will achieve the high that occurred just before that drop. I say do not fear a major correction, let alone a recession, before we reach the top of the parallel channel as the arc arrow indicates. And keep your eyes only on the inflation-adjusted chart of SPX.
SP:SPXLong
by TechNerdOmar
4
Omen - Real TermsA large player seems to be making decisions based in real terms, which is not revealed by the socially accepted AAPL chart which is based in dollars. Will future traders be enticed by such numerical values if it eventually harms them? To be clear, in this idea: "real terms" = the price as a proportion of total dollars, adjusted for debasement TOTAL_USD = M2, a rough measurement of broad money When we have the option of making decisions based on an infinitely expanding, numerical value (ex. 1 AAPL = X USD), which is purely speculative in current times, versus a ratio of 1 AAPL as a proportion of the total supply of dollars (1 AAPL / TOTAL_USD), at some point we have to take off the beer goggles and question what we are actually looking at. Especially when we know that the expansion of TOTAL_USD directly fueled the price rise of 1 AAPL. In this idea, we are talking about an absolute ratio that measures 1 AAPL to a pool of total claimable future wealth, we'll call that "money". Such wealth is expanding slower than the total number of dollars, which are IOUs on that wealth. It has become increasingly risky to use 1 USD as a measurement ruler for wealth when the ruler we're using measures a claim on debt (IOU), not the wealth it represents, and whose total supply changes size quickly in short periods of time. Take a few measurements, and it's hard to tell whether your stick changed, or the thing you're looking at changed. We reference TOTAL_USD as a more stable representation of this total pool of wealth. Perhaps in some other era, we'll use something increasingly valuable with a low supply as a ruler (it's almost as if it might already exist), but desperate times call for desperate measures. Put another way: suppose you want to design a model to predict if a stone will skip on a pond, or sink into it. Would you rather have, relative to our stone, a surface to skip stones on which is 1) a non-uniform surface that will change texture and angle in any way at any time, or 2) a relatively flat surface? Even though the proportions of our stone might change (stock splits, acquisitions, etc.) it still makes more sense to choose something to bounce (price) it against that's relatively stable that we can aim at. Since 1 USD is relatively increasingly unstable across asset classes, ie. the speculativity of these assets becomes purely based on the revolving door of the total supply of IOUs, and not based on the purchasing power of 1 USD. Therefore, we use the total supply of dollars as our stable surface. What do you think? Useful? Witchcraft? Future traders will be even more blind by the social acceptance of pricing things in 1 USD? Will they be less blind and come to their senses? Doesn't matter and markets will be exuberant anyways? You hated it?? Great! Comments welcome ;) Cheers! Note: M2, which is based in billions of dollars, was multiplied by 100 in the chart because there's a bug that doesn't show horizontal lines for chart values that are very small. So it does -actually- show a somewhat correct ratio in total dollars, but it's missing 0s behind the decimal.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by fringe_chartist
SPX. If you are looking for the tech bubble of 2000,think again!Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.
SP:SPX
by samitrading
13
The purchasing power of BitcoinThe price of BTCUSD keeps rising up, but so does the supply of broad money (M2). So far this year both have grown 227% and 25% respectively. There is more money now than there was at the beginning of the year, 1/4 more. Based on this metric alone, one dollar is worth 3/4 of what it was worth at the beginning of 2020. Today: One BTC is worth 2.27 BTC from a year ago One USD is worth 0.75 USD from a year ago The price of Bitcoin is going up because it appreciates in value, but also because there are more dollars. How could we track the value increase of Bitcoin while accounting for the dollar devaluation? Another way of formulating that question is: How can we track the purchasing power of Bitcoin? Historically, the price of gold has kept up with the growth of the money supply. (See Lyn Alden's core gold model ) Gold is a well-established store of value. Measuring the price of Bitcoin relative to the value of gold is a way to keep track of its purchasing power. That is what the first graph plots, the cost of Bitcoin denominated in grams of gold. The last ATH was 484.76 grams of gold. On Nov 16, the resistance of 303.07 grams was crossed, putting the price on a trajectory to reach the previous ATH. Bitcoin still needs to rise another 25% to make a new ATH in gold terms. The second graph plots the gold price (USD) for the quantities (grams) identified as support or resistance in the first graph. It is fascinating to see that the USD/Gold-grams levels result in an even tighter fit than the manually drawn price levels. You can add the AU usd/grams levels to a chart with this indicator gold price levels denominated in usd/grams
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by givanse
M2 VelocityM2 consists of small-denomination time deposits >$100K - less IRA and Keogh balances at Institutions. Balances in retail MMFs - less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. M2: Savings Deposits, Small-Denomination Time Deposits, Retail Money Market Funds, + M1. ____________________________________ In Sum, Consumer Economic activity and Balances. ____________________________________ The Velocity of money is calculated as the ratio of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) to the money supply (V=PQ/M), which is used to measure Economic strength and/or Consumers' willingness and/or ABILITY to spend money or Consume. ____________________________________ The Federal Reserve is well behind the Inflation Curve. Initially, 2024 was the year for Fed Funds rate increases. It has since moved from 2024 to 2023 and now there is a 73% Probability of the Federal Reserve increasing Fed Funds twice in 2022. 8 Months of tapering at the indicated removal of $15Billion is not going to occur. The Federal Reserve will not be able to delay, they will increase the reduction to Bond/MBS Purchases in order to begin a Rate Cycle sooner than Equity Complex Participants have assumed. Thye have not recognized the underlying ISSUES, should Money Velocity begin to increase... they will be forced to reduce QE faster and further than the majority are anticipating. 4 Fed Members prefer to conclude the Taper at the end of March 2022. ____________________________________ Peak Earnings are now behind us, Q2 2021 was the Zenith of this Credit Cycle.
FRED:M2V
by HK_L61
BITCOIN Bullrun Resumes $230K April 27th 2022 !!!!Just the Charts..Welcome to the 50th Anniversary of the Nixon Temporary Fix to fund wars overseas. This is the end of the crooked, evil and war driven dollar that enslaves the poor and youth. Wage Love, not war. What are we fighting for? Evil dollars? Let math and true guide us forward! CHARGE WALL STREET! CHARGE CROOKED BANKSTERS AND GOVERNMENTS! Civil Servants need to be civil and serve. Do good work, pay your taxes for good schools, roads and healtcare. Punish the crooks, not the honest, well meaning people of this earth. Wall Street, your days are numbers. People, only trust the truth and challenge everything else! JustCharts - Unmanipulated, 24/7, world wide, equal playing field. Bye bye BS regulators feeding us BS derivatives! The World People have spoken! Bitcoin - Fixed supply, open ledger, worst thing for crooks and banksters! Ethereum - Move over Cobol, Fortran and all the duc tape in financial systems and the ancient SWIFT BS system. It's done. Shibarian Coins - Let the world masses decide the value of the World Penny.Let the Shiba Uni dog packs lose on Wall Street. Bite the crook HARD. DOGe with the power of SpaceX and rocket scientists and SHIB, the trojan horse that will tell the world how worthless the dollar really is! Shitcoins; Toxic crapola with the first than needs a worldwideban is anything pretending to be the USD without the backing of the US Government and military. Hint: Why are UK and Canadian regulators telling citizens and crypto exchanges to avoid USDT? Think about it because you use that garbage to store value. It's toxic. Massive run out of USDT expected and that bank is EMPTY! LOL! If you put money in a shitcoin, have some fun and play the musical chair. Be warned, on anything but the top two, the music WILL Stop. ETH is even better than BTC but anything is better than unbacked paper of ANY kind! OH, and pay your taxes. El Capone or McAdfree could not evade. If you're a bad guy, ETC and BTC is NOT for you. LOL
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn2413721
1
Growth Cycle Analysis of USD Supply.This is not entirely about a trade, moreso a thought experiment of the future to come. After the great 2020 coof liquidity crisis a brief and severe expansion of the monetary supply occurred in order to bail out the entire economy. This seems to be followed by an equivalent expansion rate mirrored by the 1971 expansion. The marked difference this time is that the interest rate is 0. To reign this in would require negative rates, or capital controls, AND a major collapse (which I do not think will be permitted).
FRED:M2SLLong
by FlyTheElephant
VVIX - 105s - * VERY Important for 30 Calendar Days to 11/21/21The VVIX was cornered to the 105s, as soon as this Level was violated the 100 Level. Gaps were filled on the VIX M1 October as we began to Settle November. This left a lower Gap for the settled Front Month / M1 - November. The HIgh Low Close - 16.10 / 14.70 / 15.35 for October Settelement. The HIgh Low Close - 19.70 / 19.30 / 19.325 for November Settlement. This occurred October 19th - Wednesday. Spread on Close = 400 Ticks - this is the present Gap Fill for the M1 / November VIX. It is quite large... and the ALGOs will fully lever this spread into November... which means the potential for Higher Equities Complex. They have set this up perfectly. Be aware - Higher Prices can exceed the ATH's, it is not only Possible but Probable given the Roll Yields. Weekly Indicators remain Bearish, but this is subject to change. ______________________________________________________________________ Patience into Settle was suggested, as we now know the Game.
V
by HK_L61
2
M2 VelocityThe squeeze is on, as M@V declines, there will be a Point of Recognition when the average consumer sees Food Prices as a RISK. At that time in the not too distant future, they will begin to spend and hoard forward. We are approaching the point at which on a percentage basis - this has occurred Historically speaking. The panic Point throughout History has been 35% per annum. We are getting close as most food princes have risen in excess of 22% in 2021. A great many items, significantly more. Commodity Prices for basic materials as well, see Cotton. Scarcity eventually gives way to Panic.
FRED:M2V
by HK_L61
VIX - Roll Yield ImportanceImportant Note, the Roll Yield is important for the VXX. I have heard countless YouTube and Forum Gurus dismiss the VXX as a Junk Derivative. A Scam... Nothing is further from the Truth. That statement demonstrates how there are far too many "Gurus" with no understanding of Volatility itself. The VXX is comprised of the 30 day Short Term Rolling Maturity outline in the prior 2 Posts. We simply laid the groundwork for how this all comes together to show how "balance" is achieved for the VXX Instrument.... it is constantly moving from M1 to M2 the Day it Settles. Hopefully, this was clear enough for those unfamiliar with how Volatility works in the Futures Markets and how it impacts ALL Markets. The Methodology is known, it is based upon VIX Futures in relation to the Spot VIX >>> SPOT VIX & M1 @ Settle "Converge" then to become equal in Price @ PAR. Roll Yield is how the VXX Derives its Price. VXX is not a STOCK, it is an Index based upon M1/M2. It simply is a Wash Rinse Repeat cycle Index for M1 / M2 in Constant Maturity. I received a message asking me to explain this, Hopefully, it is clear now.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
3