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M2

Omen - Real TermsA large player seems to be making decisions based in real terms, which is not revealed by the socially accepted AAPL chart which is based in dollars. Will future traders be enticed by such numerical values if it eventually harms them? To be clear, in this idea: "real terms" = the price as a proportion of total dollars, adjusted for debasement TOTAL_USD = M2, a rough measurement of broad money When we have the option of making decisions based on an infinitely expanding, numerical value (ex. 1 AAPL = X USD), which is purely speculative in current times, versus a ratio of 1 AAPL as a proportion of the total supply of dollars (1 AAPL / TOTAL_USD), at some point we have to take off the beer goggles and question what we are actually looking at. Especially when we know that the expansion of TOTAL_USD directly fueled the price rise of 1 AAPL. In this idea, we are talking about an absolute ratio that measures 1 AAPL to a pool of total claimable future wealth, we'll call that "money". Such wealth is expanding slower than the total number of dollars, which are IOUs on that wealth. It has become increasingly risky to use 1 USD as a measurement ruler for wealth when the ruler we're using measures a claim on debt (IOU), not the wealth it represents, and whose total supply changes size quickly in short periods of time. Take a few measurements, and it's hard to tell whether your stick changed, or the thing you're looking at changed. We reference TOTAL_USD as a more stable representation of this total pool of wealth. Perhaps in some other era, we'll use something increasingly valuable with a low supply as a ruler (it's almost as if it might already exist), but desperate times call for desperate measures. Put another way: suppose you want to design a model to predict if a stone will skip on a pond, or sink into it. Would you rather have, relative to our stone, a surface to skip stones on which is 1) a non-uniform surface that will change texture and angle in any way at any time, or 2) a relatively flat surface? Even though the proportions of our stone might change (stock splits, acquisitions, etc.) it still makes more sense to choose something to bounce (price) it against that's relatively stable that we can aim at. Since 1 USD is relatively increasingly unstable across asset classes, ie. the speculativity of these assets becomes purely based on the revolving door of the total supply of IOUs, and not based on the purchasing power of 1 USD. Therefore, we use the total supply of dollars as our stable surface. What do you think? Useful? Witchcraft? Future traders will be even more blind by the social acceptance of pricing things in 1 USD? Will they be less blind and come to their senses? Doesn't matter and markets will be exuberant anyways? You hated it?? Great! Comments welcome ;) Cheers! Note: M2, which is based in billions of dollars, was multiplied by 100 in the chart because there's a bug that doesn't show horizontal lines for chart values that are very small. So it does -actually- show a somewhat correct ratio in total dollars, but it's missing 0s behind the decimal.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by fringe_chartist
SPX. If you are looking for the tech bubble of 2000,think again!Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.
SP:SPX
by samitrading
13
The purchasing power of BitcoinThe price of BTCUSD keeps rising up, but so does the supply of broad money (M2). So far this year both have grown 227% and 25% respectively. There is more money now than there was at the beginning of the year, 1/4 more. Based on this metric alone, one dollar is worth 3/4 of what it was worth at the beginning of 2020. Today: One BTC is worth 2.27 BTC from a year ago One USD is worth 0.75 USD from a year ago The price of Bitcoin is going up because it appreciates in value, but also because there are more dollars. How could we track the value increase of Bitcoin while accounting for the dollar devaluation? Another way of formulating that question is: How can we track the purchasing power of Bitcoin? Historically, the price of gold has kept up with the growth of the money supply. (See Lyn Alden's core gold model ) Gold is a well-established store of value. Measuring the price of Bitcoin relative to the value of gold is a way to keep track of its purchasing power. That is what the first graph plots, the cost of Bitcoin denominated in grams of gold. The last ATH was 484.76 grams of gold. On Nov 16, the resistance of 303.07 grams was crossed, putting the price on a trajectory to reach the previous ATH. Bitcoin still needs to rise another 25% to make a new ATH in gold terms. The second graph plots the gold price (USD) for the quantities (grams) identified as support or resistance in the first graph. It is fascinating to see that the USD/Gold-grams levels result in an even tighter fit than the manually drawn price levels. You can add the AU usd/grams levels to a chart with this indicator gold price levels denominated in usd/grams
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by givanse
M2 VelocityM2 consists of small-denomination time deposits >$100K - less IRA and Keogh balances at Institutions. Balances in retail MMFs - less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. M2: Savings Deposits, Small-Denomination Time Deposits, Retail Money Market Funds, + M1. ____________________________________ In Sum, Consumer Economic activity and Balances. ____________________________________ The Velocity of money is calculated as the ratio of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) to the money supply (V=PQ/M), which is used to measure Economic strength and/or Consumers' willingness and/or ABILITY to spend money or Consume. ____________________________________ The Federal Reserve is well behind the Inflation Curve. Initially, 2024 was the year for Fed Funds rate increases. It has since moved from 2024 to 2023 and now there is a 73% Probability of the Federal Reserve increasing Fed Funds twice in 2022. 8 Months of tapering at the indicated removal of $15Billion is not going to occur. The Federal Reserve will not be able to delay, they will increase the reduction to Bond/MBS Purchases in order to begin a Rate Cycle sooner than Equity Complex Participants have assumed. Thye have not recognized the underlying ISSUES, should Money Velocity begin to increase... they will be forced to reduce QE faster and further than the majority are anticipating. 4 Fed Members prefer to conclude the Taper at the end of March 2022. ____________________________________ Peak Earnings are now behind us, Q2 2021 was the Zenith of this Credit Cycle.
FRED:M2V
by HK_L61
BITCOIN Bullrun Resumes $230K April 27th 2022 !!!!Just the Charts..Welcome to the 50th Anniversary of the Nixon Temporary Fix to fund wars overseas. This is the end of the crooked, evil and war driven dollar that enslaves the poor and youth. Wage Love, not war. What are we fighting for? Evil dollars? Let math and true guide us forward! CHARGE WALL STREET! CHARGE CROOKED BANKSTERS AND GOVERNMENTS! Civil Servants need to be civil and serve. Do good work, pay your taxes for good schools, roads and healtcare. Punish the crooks, not the honest, well meaning people of this earth. Wall Street, your days are numbers. People, only trust the truth and challenge everything else! JustCharts - Unmanipulated, 24/7, world wide, equal playing field. Bye bye BS regulators feeding us BS derivatives! The World People have spoken! Bitcoin - Fixed supply, open ledger, worst thing for crooks and banksters! Ethereum - Move over Cobol, Fortran and all the duc tape in financial systems and the ancient SWIFT BS system. It's done. Shibarian Coins - Let the world masses decide the value of the World Penny.Let the Shiba Uni dog packs lose on Wall Street. Bite the crook HARD. DOGe with the power of SpaceX and rocket scientists and SHIB, the trojan horse that will tell the world how worthless the dollar really is! Shitcoins; Toxic crapola with the first than needs a worldwideban is anything pretending to be the USD without the backing of the US Government and military. Hint: Why are UK and Canadian regulators telling citizens and crypto exchanges to avoid USDT? Think about it because you use that garbage to store value. It's toxic. Massive run out of USDT expected and that bank is EMPTY! LOL! If you put money in a shitcoin, have some fun and play the musical chair. Be warned, on anything but the top two, the music WILL Stop. ETH is even better than BTC but anything is better than unbacked paper of ANY kind! OH, and pay your taxes. El Capone or McAdfree could not evade. If you're a bad guy, ETC and BTC is NOT for you. LOL
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn2413721
1
Growth Cycle Analysis of USD Supply.This is not entirely about a trade, moreso a thought experiment of the future to come. After the great 2020 coof liquidity crisis a brief and severe expansion of the monetary supply occurred in order to bail out the entire economy. This seems to be followed by an equivalent expansion rate mirrored by the 1971 expansion. The marked difference this time is that the interest rate is 0. To reign this in would require negative rates, or capital controls, AND a major collapse (which I do not think will be permitted).
FRED:M2SLLong
by FlyTheElephant
VVIX - 105s - * VERY Important for 30 Calendar Days to 11/21/21The VVIX was cornered to the 105s, as soon as this Level was violated the 100 Level. Gaps were filled on the VIX M1 October as we began to Settle November. This left a lower Gap for the settled Front Month / M1 - November. The HIgh Low Close - 16.10 / 14.70 / 15.35 for October Settelement. The HIgh Low Close - 19.70 / 19.30 / 19.325 for November Settlement. This occurred October 19th - Wednesday. Spread on Close = 400 Ticks - this is the present Gap Fill for the M1 / November VIX. It is quite large... and the ALGOs will fully lever this spread into November... which means the potential for Higher Equities Complex. They have set this up perfectly. Be aware - Higher Prices can exceed the ATH's, it is not only Possible but Probable given the Roll Yields. Weekly Indicators remain Bearish, but this is subject to change. ______________________________________________________________________ Patience into Settle was suggested, as we now know the Game.
V
by HK_L61
2
M2 VelocityThe squeeze is on, as M@V declines, there will be a Point of Recognition when the average consumer sees Food Prices as a RISK. At that time in the not too distant future, they will begin to spend and hoard forward. We are approaching the point at which on a percentage basis - this has occurred Historically speaking. The panic Point throughout History has been 35% per annum. We are getting close as most food princes have risen in excess of 22% in 2021. A great many items, significantly more. Commodity Prices for basic materials as well, see Cotton. Scarcity eventually gives way to Panic.
FRED:M2V
by HK_L61
VIX - Roll Yield ImportanceImportant Note, the Roll Yield is important for the VXX. I have heard countless YouTube and Forum Gurus dismiss the VXX as a Junk Derivative. A Scam... Nothing is further from the Truth. That statement demonstrates how there are far too many "Gurus" with no understanding of Volatility itself. The VXX is comprised of the 30 day Short Term Rolling Maturity outline in the prior 2 Posts. We simply laid the groundwork for how this all comes together to show how "balance" is achieved for the VXX Instrument.... it is constantly moving from M1 to M2 the Day it Settles. Hopefully, this was clear enough for those unfamiliar with how Volatility works in the Futures Markets and how it impacts ALL Markets. The Methodology is known, it is based upon VIX Futures in relation to the Spot VIX >>> SPOT VIX & M1 @ Settle "Converge" then to become equal in Price @ PAR. Roll Yield is how the VXX Derives its Price. VXX is not a STOCK, it is an Index based upon M1/M2. It simply is a Wash Rinse Repeat cycle Index for M1 / M2 in Constant Maturity. I received a message asking me to explain this, Hopefully, it is clear now.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
3
The market is talking. Can YOU hear it?Pareto's law says that roughly the top 20% of the market constituents should roughly represent 80% roughly of the overall market cap, and vice versa: the bottom 80% of constituents will represent 20% of the overall market cap. When price seems irrational, and higher cap stocks start to represent more of the market than previous decades, and thus are given a higher weight in the major indices, it can be very useful to look at a large portion of the bottom 80% to get a more rational prospect of market value. Russell 2000 represents many small and mid cap stocks, which are mostly given low weights in large portfolios and indices, compared to larger cap stocks such as TSLA or the FAANG stocks. We get an interesting peek at the overall market value if we look at these companies in the median of the market, in addition to accounting for money supply expansion. We can see that if we account for inflation, the relativity of the money supply in relation to the Russell 2000 has always topped out at about where it is now, in the past 20 years. The price seems to be disconnected from value at the moment, off by a factor of 2 or 3. For the larger caps that are not included in this index, this overpriced factor is probably larger, maybe 5 or 10, given the current conditions of an irrationally large-cap dominated market. Let me know what you think. Do you think the dip of 1200 in 2020 was a valid retest? Or was it just forced participation, coercion by the FED? Do you think that, given such coercion, we're in for a further lower retest when said coercion becomes less effective? Cheers
TVC:RUTShort
by fringe_chartist
1
SPY vs Money Supply 2000-2021Pivotal events of the last two decades compared with the S&P and the money supply. M2 is a broad indicator that includes cash, checkings, and liquid assets such as money market securities and cash equivalents. Although M2 exploded 42% during the COVID pandemic, much of this money is locked up in FED REPO agreements and artificially inflated on the Fed balance sheet as indicated by the velocity. Velocity is an indicator of the speed at which a unit of currency is exchanged in the broader economy.
AMEX:SPY
by btimdunn
3