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M2

Time to have some downside protection?While I wouldn't short the S&P500, I nonetheless would be cautious if I invested in this index, as it has rarely been that expensive, once adjusted for monetary growth. The time might have come to focus on undervalued sectors (such as commodity producers) or countries (like Russia or Singapore), rather than investing passively. Shorter-term investors might also consider long-short strategies or simple hedging, in order to reduce the downside risk.
TVC:SPX
by UnknownUnicorn12046529
BTC - BTC.D, DXY, M2, 2013 fractalI created this combo chart to get more overall view on how BTC is ready to continue bull run to the market top. 1) 2013 fractal had 50% dip (Nov 2013) just before the last leg up. Fractal matches this dip. 2) Bitcoin Dominance completing triangle. So now it should drop for the final BTC capitulation to altcoins. BTC will rise in price as well. 3) Dollar Index peaked above trend line. I suspect fakeout. DXY drops, good for BTC. 4) Bitcoin adjusted for M2 money supply came back and tested the top. Classic pattern.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by gz1968
6
M2 Money StockWe are witnessing a Crisis on par with LTCM, similar to the Russian Bond collapse. The Reverse Repo pool can be used in Net Effect to raise Rates. "Net" as it has another insidious component to it - Money Markets will again come under duress as the DX moves below Par at 100 Basis. Money Market Funds are seeing large inflows as Primary Institutions are telling Corporate Depositors to stop placing Liabilities on their Balance Sheets (Deposits are a Liability) - Interest Rates are relatively low for Money Market Accounts. We are watching a liquidity crisis begin to unfold. Wells Fargo cutting off personal loans - banks will be in trouble beginning in August. Loans are how Banks profit. The moratorium of eviction and mortgage defaults is lifted on July 31st. Defaults on loans are assured. Wells Fargo calling in all personal loans now in order to buffer the approaching defaults. When cash in Banks is reduced - the ability for Banks to weather a series of defaults is impaired - the impairment only serves accelerates the liquidity crisis merely weeks away.
FRED:M2REALShort
by HK_L61
3
SPX/M2 Money Supply comparison is eye openingThis is a VERY long term outlook on the market. Shown is from pre-DotCom bubble. This is relationship of SPX to M2 money supply. There isn't a more straightforward relationship than this. People comparing the current market to the DotCom bubble are actually only halfway there in this respect. We might be disconnected from reality right now but in this figure its no where near turn of the century. So the question is if this is a exhausted breakup from the trend and it reverts or it keeps up the northern trend? Fed is continuing its QE and SPX keeps going up. How much longer can this go on?
TVC:SPX
by cgh118
6
S&P 500: The Big Picture IIDividing SPX by the money supply (M2) removes distortions caused by changes in the supply of money (dollars). (1) Now, suddenly the skyrocketing SPX surge following the Covid crater isn't so insane, in fact, it has yet to recover to pre-Covid levels! Dividing by M2 arguably gives a more realistic view of equities, revealing the % of money out there that people are willing to invest in equities. That's a meaningful measure of how much society values such investment. By SPX/M2, the SPX has not overshot its post-Great Recession channel and further upward movement appears plausible within that time-tested channel. This is in contrast to the same big-picture analysis I last posted. (2) I'm not sure which is more plausible, but I'm a bit enchanted by /M2 and so am inclined to suspect this might be the better predictive model. SPX/M2 also seems to clarify a four-year-wave cycle that corresponds conspicuously to US Presidential terms. In this model I propose a continuity of that pattern. All of course highly speculative, but with *apparent* plausibility. (1) fred.stlouisfed.org (2)
TVC:SPXLong
by iGoddard
2
A differnt perspective on the value of the randAccurately and reliably forecasting a currency is near impossible, however, its easy to have an opinion. The question is, what do you base your opinion on? As a South African, I follow the rand closely, particularly against the US dollar and the pound. One can use a purchasing power parity (PPP) or real effective exchange rate (REER) chart to calculate a "fair value" through analyzing the numbers. But the rand has everything to do with sentiment and the global economy and very little to do with the South Africa economy. I put this chart together to try and understand the rand from a global context. Assumption: there is a high correlation between the price of gold in US dollars and the M2 money supply. The chart shows the M2 money supply in orange compared to the price of gold in rand terms which is shown by the blue line. We can see that the two lines have significantly diverged from each other over the last 8 months. If we assume that the M2 line will only ever go up and can never revert down, then we can assume that the price of gold in rand terms must also go up over time, all else being equal. It would therefore stand to reason that the price of gold in rand terms is in a cyclical low and may suggest an attractive entry point. What about the correlation between the price of gold in rand terms vs the rand dollar exchange rate? The green line shows the rand dollar exchange rate in comparison to the price of gold in rand terms. It's evident that there is a high correlation between the two however, the the divergence between the two particularly over the last 2 years, shows the real appreciation in the price of gold. So where does that leave us? The assumption that the price of gold in rand terms is correlated to that of the M2 money supply, suggests that the price of gold in rand terms needs to increase. The correlation between the price of gold in rand terms and the rand dollar exchange rate suggests that the rand needs to weaken or depreciate over time. Makes sense? I therefore ask the question as to whether the denominator that one should also follow over time is actually the direction of the M2 money supply in relation to the rand? This also backs into monetary policy in the largest economies and the US in particular. It stands to reason that the rand is far to strong at these levels if the world continues to print money? Its not sustainable! Thoughts? Please like and follow for daily posts on various asset classes. Please also share your views on the trading ideas and whether or not you find them to be of any value to you as a trader. Please note, this idea is shared for educational and discussion purposes only and should not result in speculative investment decisions in any asset class.
FX_IDC:XAUZAR
by JesseMorgans
Don't use current M2 data, it has been discontinued.If you're a analyst that has been using M2, I'm here to let you know the data has been discontinued. However, FRED is still updating the data under a new ticker "M2SL" and "WM2NS". Hopefully tradingview updates M2 with the "WM2NS" data from FRED as that one updates weekly now. Thanks for interacting with the post as it'll be more likely for tradingview to see this post and update the data accordingly. Also thank you tradingview for the hard work and consistent updates to the website and app.
FRED:WM2NSEducation
by kpftw
4
Don't just look at M2, look at M2 relative to the Velocity of M2Looking at M2 it looks incredibly Inflationary but where exactly is that Inflation? So I had to dig deeper, if you look at M2V, the Velocity of M2 or in easier terms, the number of times that the average unit of currency is used to purchase goods and services within a given time period, you will notice a sharp decline in M2V accelerated by the pandemic crisis. Now if you look at the amount of M2 you have to consider for it to be inflationary, it also has to have a high velocity, or productiveness inside the economy. So if you now look at M2*M2V, the amount of M2 multiplied with it's velocity, the chart on the left, you see that relative to it's velocity M2 by far has not increased as dramatically as it seems if you just look at the amount. So if the amount of liquidity in the system increases but the realitve productivity of that money goes down it most likely is not as inflationary as you might think by only seeing the increased amount of liquidity. The crucial thing to watch is now if the increased amount of liquidity will increase in velocity which then very well can lead to a much higher inflation in cosumer goods. But keep in mind that there is a good chance a lot of the realitvely inactive money might has been inactive because it has positioned in equities and commodities, so if the economy now reopens some of that investments might be liquidated to consume rather than staying invested in financial assets, that not only concernes households but also small and medium businesses. So it is mostly crucial to keep a close eye on the M2V to see if actual consumer good inflation is to come or if this amount of liquidity will just keep raising the market to even more all time highs. This also coincides with yields which eventually can be very harmful for governments in huge debt, and as the fed has to rely on private banks to buy treasuries, which won't do that in the current extent, if real inflation is on the horizon, soly because they would loose a lot of money holding most liquid assets like treasuries or reserves, the fed won't be able to continue buying so much of the government debt causing the government to find someone else to buy it or to force public savings institutions into buying it by else going bankrupt out of inability to service it's debt.
FRED:WM2NS
by fmkatz
🔥BREAKING: House passes $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill .The House passed its $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package, which will head to the Senate. Democrats in both chambers aim to have the legislation passed and to President Joe Biden’s desk before March 14, when unemployment aid programs expire. The party is likely to pass the plan on its own, as Republicans have questioned the need for another massive spending package. We are not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature, and are therefore are unqualified to give investment recommendations. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing. This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
FRED:WM2NS
by CryptoTrend-Alerts
8