M1 vs M2 m1>m2 this is contango --- short(VXX) or long(svxy)
m1<m2 this is backwardation -----long(vxx) or short(svxy)
M2
Look at the beautiful and powerful bubble index I made.Look at the beautiful and powerful bubble index I made.
M2 Inverse HnS - Inflation Rate set to increase - 1M QuantRsiFrom investopedia:
"Generally speaking, inflation occurs if M2 money supply expands faster than the rate of productive growth in the overall economy"
what I'm looking at here is a classical charting pattern painted by the QuantRsi:
Applied to the Monthly M2 chart.
Looking at the indicator as well as the fibs (log scale chart, correct fib tool used to prevent this issue:
getsatisfaction.com )
the M2 money stock looks like it is ready for a large increase sometime around 2020-2021.
This, coupled with slowed economic growth from rising interest rates, will result in increasing dollar inflation.
Because HnS patterns often have continuation when the neckline is broken, a QRsi value of +7 for M2 on the Monthly chart would confirm this idea.
Based solely on technicals, I believe that the inflation velocity will increase well in to 2025-2030. This coincides with fundamental analysis and other economic forecasts.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE / M2 MONEY SUPPLYAs presented.
Interesting to see that we have regained 2008 value, net of money increase.. which is where we have run into resistance.
Silver vs M1just a dream~ continue stacking every month ;)
its a multi decade journey...
1975:
-M1: 250
-Silver: $4
2018:
-M1: 3850
-Silver: $14.82
(Ratio: 62.5)
If the price of silver follows the monetary base, we should have a silver price of $61.6 right now.
Gold silver ratio:
$DXY Forecast based on First 100 Days in OfficeA Trump victory would help support my bias toward A major market correction, caused by the fed raising rates far beyond the 50bp increments that has been talked up in the past.
I do believe A major correction is due. but the owners need a Scapegoat.
A Clinton victory, in my opinion, is already priced into the global marketplace.
Either way, on November 8th, I expect the DXY to clear out any liquidity at 88/100 figures
Short term Short, long term LongWell everything is said on the title, but if we do look carefully on the chart, the reversal pattern didn't end yet.
MA50 and MA100 are not crossing yet. We caliber MA on a faster period, we are not there yet.
USDJPY Pair arrived at a 50% Fibo retracement level. That support level is rather strong. Bellow, it's the 100YEN level which is quite strong as well and you would need a serious momentum to break it up.
Therefore, on a short term basis, there is still a romm for a downside, but I don't think that there is a lot of room left.
On macro economic terms, we should bare in mind many datas.
1- BoJ Has decided to end its monetary easing baring in mind the "positive" shape and the recovery of the Japanese economy.
2-FED is still keeping its schedule with regard Tappering. Which means that there won't be any more easy USD on the market.
3- FED's High level official are starting to talk about an eventual increase of interest rate which is something normal when you have printed that much money, in other words with de monetary supply made by FED that is rather normal no matter what is the shape of the economy.
4-On the Monetary Supply M1 + M2 in USD and with FED medium term policy, USD will strenghten against all major currencies.
Therefore there is still a romm between 101 and 100 but, on a medium to long term, USD should strengthen against JPY.
