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M2V

Bitcoin Price Analysis Adjusted for Inflation: Key Reaction LeveOverview In this analysis of the BTC/USDT pair adjusted for inflation using the M2 money velocity (M2V), we examine the key Fibonacci levels and potential reactions from order blocks (OB) and fair value gaps (FVG). This provides a more accurate perspective on Bitcoin's price action in the context of inflation. Key Levels and Analysis Current Price: BTC/USDT adjusted for M2V is trading at 43,235.36, with a 1.57% increase. Fibonacci Levels: 0.236: 49,231.96 0.382: 42,763.04 0.5: 37,534.73 0.618: 32,306.42 0.786: 24,862.72 Potential Reaction Levels 0.5 Fibonacci Level (37,534.73): Order Block (OB): Just below the 0.5 level, an order block is present, indicating a potential strong support zone. Fair Value Gap (FVG): This zone also aligns with a fair value gap, suggesting a high probability of a significant price reaction. Targets Target 1: 49,231.96 - Key resistance level based on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement. Target 2: 59,688.58 - Major resistance aligned with the 0 Fibonacci retracement level. Target 3: 87,331.31 - Based on the 0.618 Fibonacci extension. Target 4: 115,152.95 - Ultimate bullish target at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level. Harmonic Patterns The chart shows a large harmonic pattern Cypher, indicating potential reversal zones: Point C: Previous peak, suggesting areas of interest for resistance and support. Current Price Action Support Levels: Immediate support at the 0.382 Fibonacci level (42,763.04). Stronger support anticipated at the 0.5 level (37,534.73) due to the presence of OB and FVG. Resistance Levels: 0.236 Fibonacci level (49,231.96) as the first major resistance. Potential Scenarios Bullish Scenario: Holding above the 0.382 level could lead to a break above the 0.236 level, targeting 59,688.58 and higher. Bearish Scenario: If the 0.382 level fails, a drop to the 0.5 level is likely, where a strong reaction is expected due to OB and FVG. Conclusion Adjusting for inflation with the M2 money velocity offers a clearer view of Bitcoin's real value. The 0.5 Fibonacci level (37,534.73) is critical, with strong support from OB and FVG, suggesting a significant price reaction. Monitoring these levels will provide valuable insights for trading decisions. Share your thoughts and analysis in the comments below! Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Long
by Neirolink
1
EXIT USD IMMEDIATELY - BTC + M2V + DXY + IR + SPX/M2 Adjusted M2 Velocity is starting to increase due to deposits and M2 removing from the US system back into the economy (this indicates inflation is coming back harder) (this is an internal run on the dollar) (hence Gold and BTC taking off) SPX adjusted for the M2 is showing the market is undervalued + indicating further stimulus to get economic activity going again (you can't tax deflation) DXY is showing extreme weakness after the BRICS movements and Saudi Arabia turning away from the USA including Japan showing less and less support (this is an external run on the dollar) TSI showing BTC on a moving average did not achieve a market top during the fraudulent activity (bitcoin never topped this cycle in historic behavior on a monthly scale) USM1 (red) showing portions of the 23 trillion U.S. dollars PRINTED from QE / C9 are starting to dangerous circulate and exit into hard assets starting the rise of the M2 Velocity (this is point of no return, there is no way to stop this) EXPLANATION - the FRED has most likely seen the dangers and panic raised rates + QT to reduce the effect on M2V, Just like Weimar Germany Jerome Powell is too late and they caught this too late (hyperinflation risk is now real) I have attached a Weimar Germany Wholesale Price Index compared this with the (LARGE BLUE) line indicating 1923 - 2023 is exactly repeating Finale question is when does this kick off? when majority figure out the FRED can't fix this? the FRED can't raise rates? the FRED can't taper? the FRED can't lower rates? the FRED can't stop M2V? the CBDC emergency is stop the money velocity and has nothing to do with modernizing US / EU dollars, the only option is to force control spending and circulating currency, have 10 million? you're now only allowed to spend 50k a year. Why buy Bitcoin? if Bitcoin does not work the world enters world war 3 nuclear fighting to defend dollar strength, rising dictators repeating once again imagine a Hitler but in control of the entire American and NATO military, why don't I like Gold or Silver? it never stopped wars happening after currency collapses and it sure as hell won't stop this unfolding. ---------------UNITED STATED OF AMERICA--------------- 1971 CPI Index was at 40 following the gold depeg CPI Index reached 178 in 2001, Sep 2008 Pre QE reaching 218 and by June 2017 this number kept raising reaching 244, as of the Feb 2023 report CPI index is at 301 points. If this were to repeat similar to Weimar Germany 248 points was the period of NO RETURN, once velocity starts to pick up 300 will be 600 once panic starts to pick up 600 will be 8,557, once QE starts to deal with this problem of people unable to afford basic needs this number will reach 22,486. This will mark the end of the current US Dollar System to be replaced by a new dollar pegged to hard assets once again. ---------------UNITED STATED OF AMERICA--------------- ---------------WEIMAR GERMANY--------------- Between May 1921 and July 1922 the previous tendencies were once more resumed. On the basis of an index number of 100 for May 1921, the circulation in July 1922 was 248.6, internal prices were 734.6, and the dollar rate 792.2. Again, between July 1922 and June 1923 these tendencies con­tinued, though at enormously in­creased rates. With an index num­ber of 100 for July 1922, circulation in June 1923 stood at 8,557, inter­nal prices at 18,194, and the dollar rate at 22,301. The prices of imported goods had increased to 22,486. ---------------WEIMAR GERMANY--------------- inflation rate in United States: 2023: 6% 2022: 6.5% 2021: 7% 2020: 1.4% 2019: 2.3% 2018: 1.9% 2017: 2.1% 2016: 2.1% 2015: 0.7% 2014: 0.8% 2013: 1.5% 2012: 1.7% 2011: 3.0% 2010: 1.5% END
INDEX:BTCUSD
by FederalXBT
The end of the fiat experiment, USA Hyperinflation / WAR This will be just insane to watch unfold month by month take a look. Adjust the US GDP to USM2 (Money supply growth) the US has not experienced real growth since the 1999, pretty alarming. Adjusting the SPX to the M2 the SPX has actually not experienced growth either. Forced to sanction the Russian Ruble (creating an excuse) to stop Russia gaining an advantage, CNY well we know what happen to them. EUR forced to print adopting countries into the EURO system. Now the FRED what just figured out this all leads to hyperinflation even BEFORE the QE policy? Very very coincidental that when the USA tried to avoid this scenario in 2018 by quietly raising rates, China happens to leak something that would completely throw the entire world off throwing the USD/EUR into quantitative easing policies, China would have known a lockdown event would trigger lockdowns and QE and put the USA / EUR system in a place worse than ever. coincidence I think not. Where does this leave the future? when the DXY starts to fall, Money Velocity starts to rise as assets are liquated back into the US economy at the same time. This will be from the EU and JP ramping up Yield curve control, the US will have to start engaging in Yield Curve Control for US yields as you can clearly see its not an inflation problem causing yields to rise, its the doubt the US economy, yields could start leaping to 7% - 15% this can't happen because then the US government will default. Pointing heavily to an all out war with Russia / China vs US / NATO. Either the world splits up into 2 system East / West separated economies or there's going to be a fight, and the country in the worst position has the biggest military arsenal and capabilities in the world. No point not buying Bitcoin at this point, either Bitcoin is the miracle to stop this or we no longer exist.
SP:SPX
by FederalXBT
MV = PQIn this rough draft of an idea, I naively try to figure out the effect of the immense money printing, and the "true" value of inflation. After BIS came out talking about the hidden debt, I began thinking about the "hidden" money. With such low money velocity, we cannot possibly feel the real effect of all that flood of money. I am amazed from this chart. Mainly because I just realized that there is a ticker that measures money velocity besides the FRED:M2V. It has the impractical name of A14187USA163NNBR. And it provides us with very long historical data to analyze. For us to have a remote hope of analyzing such extensive numbers, we simplify certain things. The title is the famous Milton Friedman equation (Quantity Theory of Money). Since I haven't studied finance, I just found out this equation. It was not famous for me. Yet, here I am, an unprofessional talking about finance. The letters in the title's equation mean the following: M stands for money. V stands for the velocity of money (or the rate at which people spend money). P stands for the general price level. Q stands for the quantity of goods and services produced. Info taken from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Lous www.stlouisfed.org On the chart, there are two charts of the "fixed" SPX*Velocity. Because there are two separate tickers for velocity. FRED has data on the US GDP only after 1947. So one of the differences between these charts could relate to it. GDP in a period when QE didn't exist, was a meaningless statistic. Increase in productivity can't take you parabolically high like we see now. The reason we use SPX*Velocity is the following: If you do some calculations on the MV=PQ equation and multiply by SPX we have: SPX*Velocity (Chart) = SPX/M * GDP In reality, this chart shows us the effect of the SPX bubble on GDP. Before 1947 there was horizontal movement. If you think about it, until 1947 the fact that SPX*Velocity didn't grow, means that SPX is a good representation of GDP. On the left handside of the equation is the chart, on the right is total product produced. So now, the parabolic GDP is 100% due to the parabolic movement of SPX thanks to infinity-free-money-printing. The money velocity tells us more. Because money was not fiat, people used to hoard it and not spend it. So we see a substantial drop from 4.8 to 2 in velocity, before the Great Depression. The same is now, but faster... for the last 20 years, money velocity has taken a skyfall. The slow drop in money velocity occured because money was precious and people kept it. Now it is not moving because there is a MASSIVE amount of it in circulation, but most importantly, because it is hidden, like the hidden debt BIS is looking for. I know this idea is confusing. There is so much stuff that is hard to explain and visualize. Let's think of a scenario. If/when the Dollar Milkshake commences, and someone goes bankrupt, the debt is deleted. Since the debt is deleted, let's say that the money is deleted as well. We realize that if the money supply goes incredibly low, it would be as if we "go back in time". The Dollar Milkshake, that will push it's value to incredible highs, is nothing more than turning back the clock in time. All these years everything lost their value, as well as dollar. The only debt that will remain and not go bankrupt, is gold. It is not debt, but it serves as one because it is technically currency. This is an inverse-pyramid SPY_Master uploaded. The fake money we have created costs a ridiculous amount compared to gold reserves. GDP has increased 100 times in the last 80 years. And SPX more than 3 times to GDP. This gives us an idea of just how much over-leveraged and overblown the stock market is. Human values haven't increased 100 times. Hunger poverty and suffering hasn't gone down 100 times. And we are certainly not much wiser than ancient civilizations like the Greeks (perhaps much less wise). This is a truly fixed SPX chart. And by fixed, I mean qualitatively. It looks like we are in a state like before the Great Depression. Very very bubbled. Who knows if more money printing will take place and take us off the chart. To conclude, we can calculate inflation if we calculate the missing money velocity. SInce money doesn't circulate, there is low inflation. It is the product of money supply and velocity that matters. If velocity returns to normal levels (it certainly tries to), we look for an increase of 60% in velocity, which would push inflation much higher than now. Imagine the panic we will feel if inflation goes to 15% next year, let alone 60%. I began writing this idea to calculate the inflation, but my mind went places... It's been fun writing. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
Editors' picks
SP:SPX
by akikostas
20
M2 vs. M2v (or Money Supply by Money Velocity) This is a pretty bleak chart illustrating how printing more bad money is not the solution to a broken monetary system. The FRED:M2 can be seen gradually increasing at around a 30 or so degree slope until about 2011 onward where it becomes steeper... then at the beginning of the pandemic -- it turns parabolic. During the same period you can see the FRED:M2V which is a measure of how much penetration each dollar is getting (in other words, how many different hands does it touch on its way through the economy. More velocity means each dollar goes farther as it relates to the health of the economy. So what in the world is happening now? Well a massive influx of new dollars added to the money supply aren't moving past wall street. Most of this money is just bouncing between super wealthy and well-connected insiders, being used by corporations to buy back shares, or simply just sitting in a literal or electronic vault, where it never reaches the actual economy. This is a dangerous situation that can get out of hand quickly, culminating (in the worst case) into a widespread loss of faith in the money supply and almost overnight devaluation of the currency. This has happened with ever other paper currency in history, which would be an excellent place to begin research if you are interested in knowing more about what is happening to our currency. My only advice is to be aware that the security you feel with a wallet full of cash is actually a luxury only afforded to global hegemonic powers; one which is always ephemeral even though many may struggle to remember a time when that seemed possible.
FRED:WM2NS
by mattcorwin1
M2 - Velocity and Explanation of DIVERGENT TRENDS Explained V.1The explanation will be broken into several parts below: You see what I see. M1/M2 Velocity collapsing while Fiscal Policies become far more extreme in nature. Profile and Structure are comprised of a great many observable metrics. Volumes are wafer thin. Gamma squeezes are, on balance, failing. Calls are what has driven volume, Stops at levels are being used as well. The same Large Caps drive Price from a narrow and concentrated group of 7-9 equities. AAPL is an excellent example - the Cult of iMob is not driving price with outright purchase, but Calls. We see this weekly, APPL's range is 141 to 150. It is approaching the Resistance @ 150. Concentration Metrics show clear RISKs to any type of event - Profiles are out of balance. QQQ's continue to hold 363, for now. Support and Resistance have morphed into a weakening structure within the overall Market Profile. ____________________________________________________________________________________ ATHs are meaningless to a functional trader. Structure and Profile has far more to it than Higher Highs. The Divergences have never, in the history of the Equities Markets, been this extreme. Never. We can see Longer term indicators beyond the DOW Transports which clearly align within the numerous indicators demonstrating the widest negative divergences ever. These have been Divergence warnings during 2007, 2011, 2015, 2020 and now - 2021. The Magnitude of each has been interesting: The Scope and Scale of each Daily Divergence is highly correlated to the percentage retracement with only 1 exception. 2007 - 56% decline - Scope / 86 weeks of DIV - Scale 2011 - 16% decline - Scope / 16 weeks of DIV - Scale 2015 - 12% decline - Scope / 60 weeks of DIV - Scale 2020 - 32% decline - Scope / 47 weeks of DIV - Scale 2021/2022 - TBD and yet it has exceeded the 90 year cycle Highs In March of 2022 we will have completed the 90 year Cycle. Will it be the onset of a wider and more pronounced and obvious Global Economic Contraction? Or is it front run? I believe it will be front run in dramatic and very violent fashion. It will depend on Confidence, which is waning dramatically, we are seeing this in M1 - a dramatic decline in Consumer purchases. Factories around the Globe are being shuttered. It follows the pattern Samsung exhibited in 2019... almost perfectly. Review the 2019 10Ks and 10Qs.
FRED:M2VShort
by HK_L61
3
Don't just look at M2, look at M2 relative to the Velocity of M2Looking at M2 it looks incredibly Inflationary but where exactly is that Inflation? So I had to dig deeper, if you look at M2V, the Velocity of M2 or in easier terms, the number of times that the average unit of currency is used to purchase goods and services within a given time period, you will notice a sharp decline in M2V accelerated by the pandemic crisis. Now if you look at the amount of M2 you have to consider for it to be inflationary, it also has to have a high velocity, or productiveness inside the economy. So if you now look at M2*M2V, the amount of M2 multiplied with it's velocity, the chart on the left, you see that relative to it's velocity M2 by far has not increased as dramatically as it seems if you just look at the amount. So if the amount of liquidity in the system increases but the realitve productivity of that money goes down it most likely is not as inflationary as you might think by only seeing the increased amount of liquidity. The crucial thing to watch is now if the increased amount of liquidity will increase in velocity which then very well can lead to a much higher inflation in cosumer goods. But keep in mind that there is a good chance a lot of the realitvely inactive money might has been inactive because it has positioned in equities and commodities, so if the economy now reopens some of that investments might be liquidated to consume rather than staying invested in financial assets, that not only concernes households but also small and medium businesses. So it is mostly crucial to keep a close eye on the M2V to see if actual consumer good inflation is to come or if this amount of liquidity will just keep raising the market to even more all time highs. This also coincides with yields which eventually can be very harmful for governments in huge debt, and as the fed has to rely on private banks to buy treasuries, which won't do that in the current extent, if real inflation is on the horizon, soly because they would loose a lot of money holding most liquid assets like treasuries or reserves, the fed won't be able to continue buying so much of the government debt causing the government to find someone else to buy it or to force public savings institutions into buying it by else going bankrupt out of inability to service it's debt.
FRED:WM2NS
by fmkatz
SPX via Equation of ExchangeHi everyone, I am doing some self study and have created the graph above. using the equation of exchange M*V=P*Y I have calculated 1/Y. M = Money Supply V = Money Velocity P = Price (S&P index value) Y = Real Output/Value Keeping the above in mind I calculate 1/Y (inverse because chart is easier to look at) 1/Y = 1/(M*V/P) Adjusted Value = 1/(M2*M2V/SPX) With the math listed here we can see that the recent volatility (past 2 years) may have been the result reaching the previous dotcom peak. We are now resting on top of that peak as support. The trend is consistent and the Fiscal/Monetary response is firmly in control of the market. If we were to break down from here this chart could be interesting to gauge where the bottom is without as much noise. Please leave your comments and correct me if you see anything I can improve upon. I am still learning and not a financial advisor/professional so please do not make any trades on my advice. If you do not look at this as 1/Y and instead just Y it could indicate that real output is falling over time however I would like to discuss this further if anyone has opinions. Personally I am interested in Asain markets and Gold going forward. - Salty
FRED:WM2NS
by SaltyTeemo
The myth of hyperinflation series #5- Velocity of moneyEven if the purchasing power is rising, without the increase of velocity of money, there will be no inflation and sustained economic growth. Circulation/velocity of money measures the interval between money transactions, decline means less transaction is taking place and the interval between money transactions is getting longer. According to the July 2020 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices, senior loan officers have tightened their standards and terms on commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes. Furthermore, banks reported weaker demand for C&I (commercial & real estate) loans from firms of all sizes and weaker demand across all three major commercial real estate (CRE) loan categories- construction and land development loans, nonfarm/nonresidential loans, and multifamily loan over the second quarter of 2020. Next, we will look at demand and consumption.
FRED:WM2NSEducation
by Libratus
2
Velocity of Money (M1 and M2)M1 = coins and currency in circulation + checkable (demand) deposit + traveler’s checks. M2 = M1 + savings deposits + money market funds + certificates of deposit + other time deposits. The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy.
F
by 420snoop
4