The end of the fiat experiment, USA Hyperinflation / WAR
This will be just insane to watch unfold month by month take a look.
Adjust the US GDP to USM2 (Money supply growth) the US has not experienced real growth since the 1999, pretty alarming. Adjusting the SPX to the M2 the SPX has actually not experienced growth either.
Forced to sanction the Russian Ruble (creating an excuse) to stop Russia gaining an advantage, CNY well we know what happen to them. EUR forced to print adopting countries into the EURO system.
Now the FRED what just figured out this all leads to hyperinflation even BEFORE the QE policy?
Very very coincidental that when the USA tried to avoid this scenario in 2018 by quietly raising rates, China happens to leak something that would completely throw the entire world off throwing the USD/EUR into quantitative easing policies, China would have known a lockdown event would trigger lockdowns and QE and put the USA / EUR system in a place worse than ever.
coincidence I think not.
Where does this leave the future? when the DXY starts to fall, Money Velocity starts to rise as assets are liquated back into the US economy at the same time. This will be from the EU and JP ramping up Yield curve control, the US will have to start engaging in Yield Curve Control for US yields as you can clearly see its not an inflation problem causing yields to rise, its the doubt the US economy, yields could start leaping to 7% - 15% this can't happen because then the US government will default.
Pointing heavily to an all out war with Russia / China vs US / NATO.
Either the world splits up into 2 system East / West separated economies or there's going to be a fight, and the country in the worst position has the biggest military arsenal and capabilities in the world.
No point not buying Bitcoin at this point, either Bitcoin is the miracle to stop this or we no longer exist.
M2velocity
M2 VelocityA conundrum?
No, absolutely not.
2022 it will reverse as scarcity becomes undeniable.
____________________________________________
Why are we losing Jobs in the Retail Economy?
Why was Black Friday / Cyber Monday dismal?
_____________________________________________
Herding Cats - if you've ever attempted it, can be quite
challenging.
M2 VelocityM2 consists of small-denomination time deposits >$100K - less IRA and Keogh balances at Institutions.
Balances in retail MMFs - less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs.
M2: Savings Deposits, Small-Denomination Time Deposits, Retail Money Market Funds, + M1.
____________________________________
In Sum, Consumer Economic activity and Balances.
____________________________________
The Velocity of money is calculated as the ratio of nominal gross domestic product (GDP)
to the money supply (V=PQ/M), which is used to measure Economic strength and/or
Consumers' willingness and/or ABILITY to spend money or Consume.
____________________________________
The Federal Reserve is well behind the Inflation Curve.
Initially, 2024 was the year for Fed Funds rate increases.
It has since moved from 2024 to 2023 and now there is a
73% Probability of the Federal Reserve increasing Fed Funds
twice in 2022.
8 Months of tapering at the indicated removal of $15Billion
is not going to occur.
The Federal Reserve will not be able to delay, they will increase
the reduction to Bond/MBS Purchases in order to begin a Rate Cycle
sooner than Equity Complex Participants have assumed.
Thye have not recognized the underlying ISSUES, should Money
Velocity begin to increase... they will be forced to reduce QE
faster and further than the majority are anticipating.
4 Fed Members prefer to conclude the Taper at the end of March 2022.
____________________________________
Peak Earnings are now behind us, Q2 2021 was the Zenith of this
Credit Cycle.
AMGEN who knows what they do, but it has to do with moneyInteresting compare to the crash off in money supply velocity to Amgen’s delayed bull run
Maybe something to do with their business model.
Also compares to money supply and seems to correlate with increase in money supply dollars finding their new homes as we can see as the money supply velocity drops off drastically.
M2 VelocityThe squeeze is on, as M@V declines, there will be a Point of Recognition
when the average consumer sees Food Prices as a RISK.
At that time in the not too distant future, they will begin to spend and hoard
forward.
We are approaching the point at which on a percentage basis - this has occurred
Historically speaking.
The panic Point throughout History has been 35% per annum.
We are getting close as most food princes have risen in excess of 22% in 2021.
A great many items, significantly more.
Commodity Prices for basic materials as well, see Cotton.
Scarcity eventually gives way to Panic.