USDCAD Technical analysisQuick Long and Short trade on the USDCAD pair. Follow at your own risks. There might be few pips upside/downside extra befgore triggering or hit TP but not that many, 15-30 pips top
Macklem
Shorts covering quicklyThe evolutionary break of 1.260x unlocked the floodgates and buyers successfully captured the higher high. But the revolutionary attack would not be complete without capitulation and be as follows:
1. Taking 1.295x (there is no question of having broken above July 19th highs, since sellers have given up a lot of ground for it, will unlock a test of 1.331x as a minimum flow 2. Using 1.317x for reference. The idea behind this attack, as clear from this example, consists of forcibly clearing a way through the defences to unlock a momentum move. Here sellers themselves have to cover their positions, so that triggers the cascading and comradeship.
All we need to concentrate our forces on, is attacking if above 1.295x, till then we can continue sitting on our hands in a neutral position if not already loaded from below. Amongst other things, we also need to consider the forcible breakdown in Oil to $57 which will can add fuel to the attack.
ridethepig | USDCAD Market Commentary 2020.09.28Flows are starting to become more mixed as we reach the final few sessions in the Quarter. The structural decline of the dollar remains but we have some room for tactical longs in USDCAD. This is emphasised by the fact that the DXY still has a final manoeuvre to make before we step down one more time:
In the short term it is buyers move to make, they have put their cards face up and with enormous effect a squeeze of the highs will make things a lot easier to play in the MT and LT decline:
In a nutshell.... Continue to look for longs in USDCAD over the coming days for a test of 1.350x. Before positioning for a swing down for later in the year.
ridethepig | ADP/NFP Combo Play📌 What we are trading here is an event risk play.
This swing illustrated combining both ADP and NFP prints. It is also characteristic for the fearlessness with which USD sellers can to a certain point neglect their own weakness.
The loonie with some broad based USD profit taking as widely expected after clearing initial targets. I am looking to recycle USDCAD shorts on rallies into 1.315x providing initial resistance. It looks like this move lower can at least test 1.295x.
To avoid jumping the gun, shorts are only worth considering at 1.315x (soft resistance) as we are trading an internal structure that must inspire flows. We are trying to nip any rally with ADP prints in the bud with the still latent power of the structural USD devaluation.
As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
ridethepig | CAD Quarterly Outlook 📍 USDCAD
Prepare for a flush in CAD with the ever-present threat of Canadian tariffs from Trump. Protectionism is excellent at the best of times...let alone in the middle of a pandemic... right 🥺
The unwinding is picking up speed - RSI on track for the decline and pressure looks set to carry us into the 70 handle.
=> A possible breakdown can also now be met with the USDCAD flows. As you can see, the CAD weakness has affected the basing structure and now sellers of the Canadian Dollar will deprive buyers the fruits of their deeply laid plans of Dollar devaluation across the board. Thanks to a little tactical finesse, to this trade.
