BMA: Holding longsThe trend is very strong in the monthly timeframe. Every single signal has worked, telling us before hand what the market would do, with actionable setups and extremely perfect accuracy. BMA is a good performer, with still a modest valuation, and expected to deliver in the coming months, specially if the government's infrastructure plans pan out favorably, since they are going to benefit from it, being the largest bank outside of Buenos Aires. You can read more about it here: xbma.org
The daily chart offers a good low risk entry here, in case you missed it at lower levels. I'll add the ADR chart in the comments.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Macri
ARGENTINA | MERVAL LOOKING FOR 16.000The big fall after the presidential elections , Merval is testing 9.300. Channel with a Bullish trend looking for a new max. Argentina's economy is trying to grow up with international capitals, with many free market deals. The expectation for the econmy are so bullish because Argentina won big a victory to end 15 years in default .
USDARS: Update - 2 weeks to define the trendThe USDARS pair has an interesting setup, on one hand, the uptrend that started after monetary policy changed, has failed to reach the target on time, suggesting a selloff was possible (which did in fact materialize).
I have reccomended my fellow countrymen to sell their dollars at the 15.8-15.4 mark, but it's time to pay attention to go long the dollar again, possibly, unless the downtrend is confirmed in 2 weeks or less.
If you have peso savings, wait fo a good chance to convert them to dollars, if you're still in dollars and haven't sold, well, you should have paid more attention to my forecast #1, #2, don't panic, you might get a good opportunity to unload your dollars higher soon, or more reasons to hold them too.
For people actually trading this pair electronically, I'd reccomend using ATR based stops, and/or no leverage, since volatility can be quite extreme.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
ARSUSD: Long pesos, yes...long.Here I am with a little contrarian idea.
There's a nice 15% spread to be filled when comparing the Argentine peso to the other South American economies.
The stock market also took a nose dive and is poised to retrace, since it's possible that live cattle and soybeans will head up from this point (and the Merval has a healthy correlation with those two among other agriculturals, for obvious reasons).
That being said, to my fellow countrymen, this is a nice low risk trade, upside is 15%, downside is merely 2%. Sell dollar for 13, buy back at 10-11, give or take, and or invest in other assets once we reach that target.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.