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NASDAQ: Dancing on the Edge of a Techno-Financial TightropeMarket Overview The NASDAQ-100 (NDX) has recently corrected by approximately 5.5% from its all-time high of 22,133 on December 16, 2024. This comes after a historic rally driven by resilient megacap technology stocks, robust earnings, and the continued dominance of AI-led innovation. Despite the correction, the index remains up 18% year-to-date, outpacing broader indices like the S&P 500, fueled by optimism around productivity-enhancing technologies. However, macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds could temper this growth into 2025. Technical Analysis Trendlines Short-Term: The NDX remains in a rising trend channel since March 2023, with the lower boundary around 20,500 acting as critical support. A recent breach of its 21-day moving average suggests growing bearish momentum. Long-Term: The index's long-term trendline, extending from the pandemic lows in 2020, remains intact, underscoring investor confidence in the broader tech narrative. Key Levels Support Immediate support: 20,790 (50-day moving average). Strong support: 20,500 (trendline and Fibonacci retracement zone). Resistance Near-term resistance: 21,900 (upper boundary of rising wedge). Critical resistance: 22,133 (all-time high). Momentum Indicators RSI: Declining from overbought territory (currently at 64), signaling potential for further downside before resetting to neutral. MACD: A bearish crossover suggests weakening momentum in the near term. Macroeconomic Context Interest Rates The Federal Reserve has maintained its hawkish stance, with the terminal rate hovering around 5.75%. While inflation has moderated to 2.4%, core inflation remains sticky at 2.8%, keeping rate cuts off the table until mid-2025. Elevated borrowing costs could weigh on tech valuations, particularly for growth companies reliant on cheap capital. Economic Growth U.S. GDP growth is forecasted to decelerate from 2.6% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, reflecting weaker consumer spending and tighter financial conditions. This slowdown could dampen earnings growth across the NASDAQ-100 constituents. Corporate Earnings Analysts expect NDX earnings growth of 8% in 2025, down from the blistering 14% in 2024, as cost pressures and a plateauing of AI-related tailwinds take hold. Geopolitical Landscape China-U.S. Relations Increasing tensions over Taiwan and heightened scrutiny of U.S. tech exports to China remain a wildcard. Any escalation could disrupt semiconductor supply chains and impact heavyweights like Nvidia and AMD. Europe Persistent instability in Eastern Europe and ongoing energy challenges pose risks to multinational tech firms with significant operations or customers in the region. Middle East Geopolitical uncertainty stemming from conflicts in the Middle East has kept oil prices elevated (~$95/barrel). Higher energy costs could indirectly affect tech earnings by squeezing consumer and corporate budgets. 2025 Outlook Base Case The NASDAQ-100 ends 2025 up 8–12%, driven by resilient demand for cloud computing, generative AI, and green technology innovations. Support from stable core earnings growth and moderating inflation provides a favorable backdrop. Bear Case Prolonged high interest rates, coupled with weaker-than-expected global growth, lead to a flat or mildly negative year. Key risks include geopolitical flare-ups, regulatory actions on Big Tech, and waning investor enthusiasm for speculative assets. Bull Case A dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve in H2 2025, alongside breakthrough advancements in AI or biotechnology, propels the index to new highs (~24,000). Conclusion The NASDAQ-100 is entering 2025 with a cautiously optimistic outlook, balanced between robust technological trends and mounting macro/geopolitical risks. Investors should monitor key support at 20,500 and resistance at 21,900 as barometers of sentiment. While near-term volatility is likely, the index remains a cornerstone for long-term growth portfolios. For 2025, the focus is on being smart: diligent monitoring, disciplined allocations, and adapting to shifting conditions. "There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat." – John Tuld – Margin Call (2011)
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by WHSelfInvest
BTC Bullish pain scenarioI've been finding BTC has been following more traditional movements with the higher volumes currently being traded. Would like to see something where we have a sustained amount of sideways accumulation allowing some more money to flow into altcoins causing mini cycles in sectors. Would also then expect stops to be wiped out on both sides before BTC continues its move. Hoping we make it to the 115k-120k region before cooling off. Lets see whats to come...
Long
by Dutchi_Algos
1
Potential Macro Channel on Bitcoin to keep an eye onThis ascending channel on the monthly chart has both pi cycle tops from the last two bull runs as key touches on the top trendline. The bottom trendline has lots of important key touches too. If we break above my other big wall of channels which I have posted in a previous idea, thie top trendline of this channel would be the next price I would be looking for for a potential bull market top. By next month the top trendline of this channel wlll be around 240k. The other wall of channels I have posted in the past has a current top trendline around 120k so it would definitely ahve to find aay to break up from that one first to have a chance to retest the top trendline of this one. Gonna keep a close eye on it. *not financial advice*
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
The Macro Picture Few Are Watching: Bitcoin Dominance in the FinAs we approach what could be the final leg of this bull market, Bitcoin Dominance ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D ) is set to become a critical indicator. Historically, a peak in BTC dominance has often preceded liquidity spillovers into the broader crypto market, igniting a wave of speculative fervor across altcoins. This time, as BTC dominance nears pivotal levels, we may be entering a similar phase, marked by heightened volatility and shifting market dynamics. The chart suggests that BTC dominance could soon experience a reversal, signaling the start of widespread capital rotation within the crypto space. Observing BTC dominance during this period will provide early clues about market sentiment, helping investors to time entry and exit points with precision. I’ll be closely monitoring this metric and will provide timely updates as we approach potential inflection points. This shift could begin within the next 1-6 weeks.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by mbuffara
Charging Ahead: Tesla's Journey to Becoming the Next NVIDIA🚀 🚀 🚀 NASDAQ:TSLA Extremely bullish outlook. The weekly chart just closed last week with a huge bullish range expansion and engulfing bar closing above previous weekly highs signaling BULLS ARE BACK. Price has now completely changed from bearish to bullish. We are now making higher lows and higher highs. Do keep in mind that a retrace even towards $220’s is still possible, in case this happens this will be the IDEAL LONG ENTRY although it is very unlikely. From a MACRO perspective, this is one stock that looks ready to finally pump to new all time highs so forget about short time frames trading and focus long term and build your positions by dollar cost averaging your way in.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by ZelfTrade
BTC Winter Outlook.It looks like bitcoin has just laid the foundations of a major trend reversal and potentially given itself the launchpad needed to push out of this 215 day consolidation structure. Momentum appears to be shifting with the chart printing the first higher low, higher high and now a higher low with strong price action to support a continuation to the upside to AT LEAST test the upper bounds off the consolidation structure. We have also just broken into the bullish control zone on the RSI and ar working on printing the first bullish MACD histogram wick to boot. An outcome where market makers push price down to quick-wick out late longs could still be on the cards but even in such a scenario I anticipate buyers to maintain their dominance through till the end of the year. Happy trading!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FTSGroup
2yr Yield - FEDFUNDS "Inversion"Over the past ~25yr, we've seen 3 instances of 2yr Yield dropping below the FEDFUNDS rate set by the Federal Reserve. All 3 instances coincide with Recessions. On this chart, you see the Yield Differential (Yellow), the SPX (Candles), along with the time of said "Rate Cycle Inversions" (Blue Bar Counts Below Price). As you can see, all 3 previous instances lead to significant corrections and/or volatility with notable downside. Not since the 2008 "GFC" have we seen an "inversion" of this magnitude. While correlation is NOT causation...It can be a "warning light" signaling 'Danger Ahead'. It is certainly forewarning us that the probabilities of a recession/down-turn are gaining momentum. Yes, people have been calling for Doom n Gloom, "Top is In", Recession imminent... for a couple years now. And I am not recommending you sell everything and hide under a rock. What I am recommending however, is that you reduce leverage if you have any, perhaps lock in some profits while you're "on top", and head into the coming days/weeks/months with eyes wide open, alert to potential quick corrections when this wild ride inevitably 'ends'. Each instance resulted in the "recent lows" being violated. If history rhymes this time, that could mean low 3k's incoming for SPX. COULD. Can your portfolio/strategy/mindset handle that kind of volatility/drawdown? Just some food for thought. As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management. Thank you for your time and consideration.
SP:SPX
by mrjones2020
DUOL: Price structure (upd) The corrective structure for wave (2) looks to be complete. Next important mid-term resistance area: 248-345 (0.382-0.618% extension of wave (1)-(2)). In this resistance zone price may form a potential handle in long CaH patter before breaking out into long term uptrend towards next macro resistance zone: 589-820 and beyond (if following support structure holds) Proposed structure is valid if price holds above august's lows (144) Previous idea from Dec 2018 with updates: Thank you for your attention!
NASDAQ:DUOLLong
by artemfedorov
Watch out as EURGBP net short positioning is reversing quicklyLeveraged money net positioning is reversing from extreme short levels in EURGBP futures. We do acknowledge the UK's recent positive political momentum amid political turbulence in the EU, however we believe the effect is in the price. On top of that, our fundamental macro model is slightly bullish EURGBP, certainly not indicating a further drop from these levels. This might indicate a rally in EURGBP towards 0.86 after a recent 2 standard deviation selloff.
Long
by bearwhispering
RECESSION ALERT | Total Vehicle Sales Data Print DelayedWith last months revision of 818,000 jobs, it is probably safe to conclude that other data points have also been incorrectly reported (manipulated for political purposes). Total Vehicle Sales for the month of August 2024 were supposed to be published today. As of 8:45 PM EST, the data STILL has not been released.. HUH?? Total vehicle sales are a leading economic indicator. I’m guessing the numbers are bad.. really bad. In Germany, the economic powerhouse of Europe, vehicle sales collapsed in August (in August 2024). The absence of today's scheduled print is a choice. Someone decided that Total Vehicle Sales (for the month of August 2024) would not be released as scheduled. In addition to illustrating the obvious failures of the current US political administration, this is also a strong indicator that Tesla ( the entire green new scam ) is on the verge of bankruptcy. I will explain this in more detail later.
FRED:TOTALSA
by ChiefMacro
2
(Personal Savings vs IXIC) * Purchasing Power of USD (Personal Savings vs IXIC) * Purchasing Power of USD I noticed Personal Savings is very bearish, near 2011 levels. So I multiplied the Purchasing Power of USD by DXY and the IXIC, Composite Index. So it's a more fair comparison of value to the past. Then I adjusted the Decimal Places, so they would be in the same scale, for better comparison. As the arrows point out, when Personal Savings falls below the Andrew's Pitchfork Median, Bear markets start. With Unemployment up, and a dead housing market, this is a bad sign.
FRED:PMSAVEShort
by Nicklaus68
2
Stock feedback loopStock market is a adaptive system or a stock, with feedback loops (for inflow, outflow function). Where nobody knows the outcome or future, but feedbacks (corrections or resistance) gives tells (makes inflows or outflows). Without a common leader. Economists think in models (price is the result of supply-demand, or inflow-outflow) that helps to explain system behavior (short term moves), but models are just ideas to explain complex world (models work until they dont). System thinkers study the stock not aggregate behavior . Looking at markets trough perspective of "eco system" helps better understand the drivers or moving forces?
FOREXCOM:SPX500Education
by citsvar
The case for investing in ChinaThe case for investing in China I have had discussions on this platform about my investments in China, the overwhelming response I get is negative. In this article I would like to try and provide an objective, data focused case to invest in China. In a soon coming article I will look at the opposite position and the potential risks of investing in China. Less competition The first reason to consider investments in China is that there are less people searching there, and as a result more opportunities. Approximately 10%-15% of Chinese citizens own or invest in stocks. With so few people even looking at the Chinese market the amount of stocks trading below fair value is greater than that in my home country of the United States. Valuations The idea that there are more opportunities is reflected in the average valuation of Chinese equities. A metric I like to use for broad valuations is the CAPE ratio. It can be understood as the P/E ratio using 10 years of earnings. This ratio is used in an attempt to disregard cyclical earnings changes. worldpopulationreview.com The above link is the current CAPE ratios of countries around the world based on the most recent available data. At the current date 08/23/2024 China has a CAPE ratio of 13. This is compared with a CAPE ratio of 28 in the United States. In the following article I often refer to is data showing the average returns when investing at different CAPE ratios. In short the data shows that there is a substantial correlation between valuations and subsequent investment returns. www.lynalden.com Economic Data Now there are many things to discuss in this section so I will do my best to keep it brief and to the main points on why I invest in China. Personal Savings Rate : China's personal savings rate averages around 40%. This is in contrast to the United States at 3.5% consistently. Balance of Trade: Since the year 2000 China has maintained large trade surpluses as a result of their massive manufacturing output (30% of global manufacturing capacity). This is a result of their hybrid state and market run economy. China's protectionist industrial policy allowed them to develop their own local industry offering the only real competitors to Silicon Valley tech firms. In contrast the United States has had a trade deficit since the 1980's forcing us to de-industrialize and in return create a fictionalized economy based on debt and speculation. The US system requires constant inflows of capital to maintain it's currency and economic supremacy. These are the two data points I would point to to get an idea of why China has overtaken the US as the worlds largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity (their local currency) as well as the two points I bring up the most. I hope I have given a different perspective of the Chinese economy. Stay tuned for the bearish case of investing in China, and have a great day!
SSE:000001Long
by sihen999
GOLD - Rockin' Higher (MACRO BULLISH!!!!)From a macro perspective, the bullish trend has just been confirmed. With the current worldwide uncertainty regarding monetary policies, the wars going on and the political conflicts people tend to swift towards safe havens like gold since their store of value does not deteriorate in an economic crisis, it's always on demand and easily convertible. History doesn’t repeat itself but it certainly rhymes. We have two active Time at Mode weekly bullish trends. First trend expires mid September with the highest target of $2,900. Second trend expires in November with the highest target of $3,100. Combining both short and longer term trends, we could easily expect price continuation toward $3,000's by the end of the year.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by ZelfTrade
BTC $38-$40k low before macro upsideSorry to break it to y'all, but the BTC chop isn't finished yet. I expect a drop to around the $40ks which coincides with the Nov 22 low from a momentum perspective, unlocking another 10 months of upside like we previously experienced. CAPITALCOM:US500 is the main cause of this, which will cause another capitulation event before assets break correlation and boom. Timeframe can be forecasted using the resistance fan lines. I am a MAXI so trust the analysis, I want $300k+ just as much as you all do. Kappa.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by JamesSpindler
SPX Bulls - Give up already ;) Do you need more Fibonacci or is this Fibonacci enough to let you bulls understand, you are trying to win a losing game (hhhhhh). I will accept defeat once the final Fibonacci speed resistance fan line has been beaten, but even then, I will be looking out for a double top. In my opinion, this traffic zone is a desperate attempt of a trend continuation, however, there is no reason for this trend to continue currently. I think a test of the Jan 2022 highs will be enough to consider a macro reversal towards 7000, however, until then. Go to bed bulls - kappa? xD
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by JamesSpindler
9
DJI Weekly Rising Narrowing WedgeDow Jones Industrial Average has not shown many signs of slowing in its growth. Here is a bearish biased shape playing out on the weekly chart in the form of a rising narrowing wedge. Strictly PA, strictly structure. Keep an eye on this. Looking for a Macro correction to reach to the .236 or the .382 on a corrective movement. This is a follow up to a macro long idea on the DJI posted back in March 25th 2023. NFA Do your own DD Like Comment and Share!
TVC:DJIShort
by BallsOfSteel32