Industrial Production, and how it can help us time larger cyclesIn this video I use Industrial Production, and more specifically, its Rate Of Change to show how we can approximate Booms and Busts in the "Business Cycle".
I also go over previous cycles, and what to look for in our current cycle.
As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
Macro
Market update FX, SPX, Crypto 8th of AprilHello hello everyone,
Long time no see. Its been a while since i've been doing updates but its good to be back again.
We have some very interesting plays that we are ready for. Let's start with a few
1. #EURUSD - been in a very long range on the daily and what really caught my eye is the formation of a potential quasimodo pattern and a breakout to the upside. From a seasonality point of view April is a weak month for the #USD and it can be already spotted in the chart and my bet is of a weak CPI on Wednesday.
2. #GBPUSD - same as EURUSD but it looks a bit more bullish and explosive
3.#AUDUSD - broke a multi year trendline and now i think it is ready to send aggressive on the top side. We might get very quick to the 2023 high
4.#USDJPY - this one looks like a banger of a trade and i am ready to pull out the big guns for a whooping 40-48R trade yes, you read that correctly and probably retire if it goes my way :))
5. #SPX - bullish until fed starts to cut
6. #BTC & Crypto - good spot to be in general. It was very much fun to trade this period crypto, more than it was in FX but i think FX will get back to fun very soon.
Now its a game of chess and who cuts faster. But in my humble opinion i think once the Fed start to cut. Its gonna be game over for the dollar
The most important chart in your trading career.Merry Christmas to all, I hope you and yours are well.
My present to you this year is the one chart you should ALL be watching. SPX/GOLD
Risk On (Equities), Risk Off (Gold). It will save you a TON of time/headaches, if you follow this chart.
In this video I go over why you should use it. How your portfolio would have been managed the last 50yr, and at the end give a quick method for managing your ratio between Risk On/Off.
As always, good luck in your trading, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
EURUSD - 30,000 ft ViewIn this video I walk you through EURUSD from the Yearly Chart, down to the Weekly Chart. Going over levels that have been swept, levels I see as upcoming draws on liquidity, and 3 scenarios I see possibly playing out for EURUSD over the next 1-3 quarters.
As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
Market Analysis July 9Welcome to the latest market analysis video dedicated to:
DAX's bearish structure and sell on rise trade.
German and US bond yield curves signal de-inversions ahead, calls for caution for those "long risk."
Did Friday's nonfarm payrolls report signal stagflation ahead?
Key data to watch out for: US CPI and China's PPI.
Technical set up in the dollar index.
Hope you enjoy, please leave comments. Thanks
3/27/2023 (Monday) SPY Analysis and Market Deep DiveMonday 3/27/2023 - In this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds to equities.
In the Trading View App, You can use the links below and hit play, so you can see the action from the dates the charts were published. I will keep this going so we can follow outcomes to analysis!
03/20/2023 (Monday) SPY and Market Analysis and Deep Dive into cIn this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds to equities.
You can use the links below and hit play to see the progression of these indicators from when I initially published them.
Please remember to like and subscribe in You Tube or Follow and Boost In Trading View. The feedback is very welcome also.
2/27/2023 (Monday) SPY Analysis and Market Deep DiveMonday 2/27/2023 - In this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds to equities.
In the Trading View App, You can use the links below and hit play, so you can see the action from the dates the charts were published. I will keep this going so we can follow outcomes to analysis!
SORRY I RAN OUT OF TIME, I ONLY HAD a minute to go and I would have had to start from scratch as TV tools dont edit. Sorry!
2/20/2023 (Monday) SPY Analysis and Market Deep DiveMonday 2/20/2023 - In this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds to equities.
In the Trading View App, You can use the links below and hit play, so you can see the action from the dates the charts were published. I will keep this going so we can follow outcomes to analysis!
2/13/2023 Upcoming SPY and Market diveIn this Video I discuss upcoming events quickly, then dive into the weekly analysis of the SPY ETF which is a good proxy for the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. We also discuss some recession indicators, and some pattern analysis. Also dont Forget CPI is released on the 15th.
You can jump to the below links and hit the play from the dates submitted and it will play out the bars from publishing until now. I will keep this going so we can follow outcomes to analysis!
I Smell a Santa Claus RallyWith inflationary expectations low, a decrease in CPI and Core CPI, a likely slowing in interest rate hikes, there's too much positive news in the short term to ignore the likelihood of a near-term rally. Still, some hinges on Jerome Powell's outlook tomorrow, but I expect him to keep language as soft as his last speech. Last month, he was still very domineering in his tone on inflation, but the last FOMC meeting was much softer. I expect that again with inflation ticking down as proof of low inflationary expectations.
I mean, you can hear people freaking out about the economy everywhere. I don't think inflationary expectations are high lol. Listen to his last speech and you can hear a dramatic tone shift.
Here's last FOMC Press Meeting After rate hike in mid November: www.brookings.edu HARD LANGUAGE
Here's his "Inflation and the Labor Market" speech on 11/30: www.youtube.com SOFT LANGUAGE
Long term? You'll have to look at my first post to see that.
Enjoy, and you can find a link to an Economic Release calendar down below for you to save.
InTheMoney
Market overview - quick look at BTC, ETH, SPX, GOLDMarket overview - quick look at BTC, ETH, SPX, GOLD
Gold seems to be most bullish out of all those at the moment, lining up with our overall fundamental view that Gold should be king in this macro economic environment going forward for the next 10 years
The West Takes Aim at Russian Oil MarketsAs tensions continue to escalate between the West and Russia, a new development has emerged in the ongoing struggle over oil shipments. The West has been using shipping insurance as a tool to put pressure on Russia, but this strategy has had limited success so far. Insurance is only available for shipments valued at less than $60 a barrel, and as it happens, Russian oil already trades just below this cap. As a result, it's not yet clear how much of an impact this will have on oil prices.
But this raises an interesting question: why would the West set the cap at this level? The answer, it seems, is that they've calculated it in such a way that it provides just enough incentive for Putin to keep pumping oil. This is because the West is understandably concerned that Putin might choose to remove Russian oil from the international market, causing prices to rise significantly. And if global oil prices do rise much above where they currently are, the situation could become much more heated.
This is just one example of the complex dance that goes on between petronations and the West. On the one hand, the West has the ability to put pressure on petronations by limiting their access to the global market. But on the other hand, petronations have the power to put significant pressure on the West via energy prices. So it's a delicate balancing act, and it's not always clear who has the upper hand.
But what does this mean for the future? Well, it's difficult to say for certain, but it's clear that the West is trying to find a way to put pressure on Russia without causing a major disruption in the global oil market. And if they're successful, it could have significant implications for the ongoing struggle between the West and Russia.
Of course, there are many other factors at play here, and it's impossible to predict exactly how things will unfold. But one thing is clear: the discussion around this issue is only going to become more heated as global oil prices continue to fluctuate. So it's definitely a topic worth keeping an eye on in the coming months and years.
Macro Update DXY $106 INBOUND
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No frills, no bullshit! Just a quick update on the eth Chart!
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DYOR - Not financial advice, just for education!
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BTC Technical Update - Market Overview 4/13A quickfire analysis of the BTC market from my perspective today! Still learning how this platform works so bear with me, only realized I could look at other tabs when re-watching the VOD, so I will be sure to cover the equities/traditions perspective in the next one. This was also before my morning coffee so I'm sorry if you hear me misspeak at times.
Let me know what you think! And feel free to share your own analysis/comments/questions in the discussion section!
The bread and butter of global macroBefore you trade stocks, bitcoin, FX, bonds or anything you have to try and understand how our monetary system works not to miss the big picture.
This video helps you by providing a 10.000 foot view of the global macro landscape. Don't miss the forest for the trees.
Tune in and enjoy!
FED & ECB : Are we on the verge of a Paradigm Shift ?LINK to the article : www.linkedin.com
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil