Get started

Macro

Bitcoin Trend Analytics October 11 BTC is about to leave the downward channel. After that, the trend will develop into new patterns. It is likely to go sideways based on the current data. Strength is contracting, cultivating a breakout. Yesterday short-term pressure forced the price down to test the speculative capital inflow at $19109.80-$18798.44. After testing twice on $19109.80 at 16:00 and 00:00 (UTC+8), BTC closed an intraday low at $18950, which is now under testing. This area is not replenished with new capital inflows. The remaining capital sustains the price. We should monitor this area - if it’s broken down, BTC could slide down. Set protections. $19882.81 is still a battleground. Only by taking hold of it could it reach neutral or the movement is still bearish. The market expected interest rate hike in November: 75bp(78.4%),50bp(21.6%)
by BitMidas
3
Macro Bear Market JUST beginning??BTC is in a very dangerous spot right now, people aren't losing their jobs fast enough (unemployment at 3.5%!!) and Netflix keep on raising subscription prices in Ukraine (war!!!) The FED might have to issue more hikes all the way to 2024, mid terms are also coming which is historically bearish for extreme risk assets (BTC??!!) TA wise, BTC is forming an extremely BEARISH descending triangle (explosive move?,!!) which could see 3k target in no time Trade wisely and close any longs, cut your losses if required as this will get MUCH much worse Macro-economical factors seem to be pointing to a structural bear market could take up to 111 months for full recovery (according to Goldman Sachs) Please share this idea as I will be providing more tips on how to navigate a full blown financial collapse!! CAREFUL
Short
by deathtotrade
5
A Macro Nerd, Technical Analyst, and a Quant walk into a Bar.And all you get is this chart and no punchline. Not any ordinary chart because this chart has everything you will ever need to actively manage investments in any liquidity environment. 1. You need a 20D moving average with 2 Std Deviation Bollinger Bands. 2. Add 3 of my new Delta/Gamma Indicators locking in on 3 of the markets biggest index hedges. 3. Add a tad bit of technical analysis Just look at the history of the FED in 2020. Then again in Fall 2018 And again in 2016 Total Gamma Exposure for the market has been stuck to zero gamma the past 2 days consolidating / distributing. That means distribution for the days overall move will be smaller < 1. The 2 smaller Equity Funds (EF) are negative gamma and the big EF is positive gamma. The exact same scenario occurred in June when JHEQX flipped positive gamma on the 2 smaller EFs. Volatility Compression with Short Squeeze Potential between now and CPI on the 13th. With Elons financing pulling out of the Twitter deal, I assume Musk is selling TSLA each day again. After AM/EU selloff, small short squeezes up or slightly down to end the day. When he is done, I expect we’ll get a brief pop up to and maybe over the 20 Day moving average which was not tested yet. This kind of price action is described well with Diamond Pattern. Really hard to call this CPI, but I'm going to lean towards the FED CALL/SECOND LEG DOWN trend line down to hold for now until Jerome Powell Pivots on future rate hikes.
SP:SPX
by SPYvsGME
3
The Battle of BEARLIN in May '23Drew this bear scenario at end of the 2021 bull cycle to keep me grounded to all possible outcomes. Have to say, didn't listen to my own logic. Now despite there being weeks of bears retreating we will keep going down until May '23 - the measured length of the last recession in 2008-2009 which lasted aroun 510 days. That being said I could be longer and much worse. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Lesson Learned: After an accelerated FED-fueled market boom there will always be a giant bust incoming.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by GrowthHackAnything
S&P500 - Decline Down to 3600 Are we about to see a Crash in the Stock Market? (This is an analysis for ALL of the Stock Indexes/Indices) O R D E R F L O W: A Market Maker Sell Model (MMSM) is in play. It's likely to be completed. Looking at the techicals in price action, we can see that the orderflow is definitely Bearish. Price keeps running out Buystops to go lower, and it's breaking market structure lower. So price runs buystops and keeps breaking market structure to the downside. Also, everytime a FVG or Orderblock has been created, it has been mitigated (filled), respected, and traded away from it... This tells us two things: - That we have no reason to go higher, because all FVG's/OB's have been mitigated. All Buystops have been taken too. So there's no buyside inefficiencies for the market to reach for. - That the interest for the algorithm is on the downside. We're trading down through Discount PD Arrays while respecting the Premium PD Arrays. We can expect this to continue before proven otherwise... If price reaches up into the FVG (and potentially all the way up into the Orderblock) above current price, I expect price to respect these PD Arrays to go Lower. If price fails to reach up to the FVG and OB and rather goes lower, that indicates extreme Bearish Momentum as it lacks its bullish ability to go up. Overall target is 3600, which is a sweep of the Sellside Liquidity. M A C R O S: The USD Index (DXY), is inversely correlated to the Indices. I am personally Long Term Bullish on DXY (check my DXY analysis post for details). A Stronger DXY will put pressure on S&P to decline Lower. I'm also favoring Bearishness on the Bond Market & Bearish Commdoities- which will lead to Bearish S&P (due to their positive correlation relationship). The world is also unfortunately about to enter a Recession and Inflation, which will cause negative impacts on the worldwide economy, and the Stock Market will NOT react positively to this. S E N T I M E N T A L I S M This analysis is also twisted upside down from what the "average Joe" investor thinks... Looking at the newspapers & Financial/Economic Blogs, the majority of the crowd expects this to be the "Dip", aka they expect Bullish prices. The market makers usually use this sentiment to then do the complete opposite. An example of this was Bitcoin. When Bitcoin was getting popular and everyone knew about it due to its drastic increase in value, lots of clueless people bought it, and the market makers then dumped it lower. to upset their positions. This is my speculation and expectation on the Stock Market's upcoming direction. Do your own research too.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Bastianelton
5
Capitulation soonWhere do I start? Since the beginning of this bear market, I have observed every single leg down. And we reached a price level ($17k), where one could argue that this is the bottom. And for a good reason. The pattern for a lower low during summer got invalidated, lots of blood on the streets, so called ''tourists'' gone from the market, oversold metrics etc etc. What we got is accumulation between $18-25k. We could potentially say that accumulating around our low is not necessarily bad, but I'll shift this monologue towards the real economy. The real world. It's ugly guys. It's super duper ugly. Last couple of days have made it clear to me that this can't be the bottom. Too much pressure all over the board. Check FX, check bonds, check macro, check geopolitics. Something must break real soon. Presure is not sustainable and cannot be absorbed for much longer. Central banks must kill the economies and protect them at the same time. The BOE is a brilliant example. They stopped purchasing bonds, til they realised that their pension funds are about to get wrecked. They changed their policy in a day with a direct market intervention. Mind here, that inflation ranges between 10-12% in the UK. This hurts the reliability of policymakers, but at the same time, there is literally nothing else to do. Other CBs will follow in this panic mode. Japan is already there. The reason I'm writing these events is because in my eyes, there is nothing bullish to boost markets. Anytime soon. Risk is huge, and reward seems at question. As you can see in the chart I've been observing since December 2021, CMF has been my ''friend indicator'' during this downtrend. Along with some very basic technicals, nothing too complicated. What does CMF tell me now? Leg down. If this gets triggered by a credit event, I don't know. If it does, I'm afraid lots of what we've taken for granted will be questioned. It will be ugly, and I'm not even sure about how the market will look like after this. I would bid around $10-13k, and pray this is it. Lastly, one thing you shouldn't forget is that crypto has never been through a bear market in equities, a recession in global economies, and most worryingly a market collapse equivalent to or maybe worse than the financial crisis in 2008. Stay safe. I'm out. I hope I'm wrong.
Short
by koun_the_wolf
6
Would Stronger Dollar Weaken Indonesia's rupiah to Rp15,000?The inflation rate has reached above 8% territory in the U.S. Higher Inflation Rate forced the Fed to raise the interest rate again by 50 basis points in May 2022 and it seems the Fed will remain hawkish for stabilizing inflation to a more normalized level. Commonly, the Increasing interest rate will make a stronger dollar because it will attract investment capital from investors abroad seeking higher returns on bonds and interest-rate products. Therefore, a bullish/Stronger Dollar outlook might prevail and potentially weakens Indonesia's Rupiah. From Chart Perspective: USD/IDR is moving above the Exponential moving average of 200, which means a bullish bias. Recently, The pair has broken out of the falling wedge pattern, accompanied by a golden cross in the MACD indicator. it signifies a potential bullish bias to the target area. Smash the Follow and Give us Thumbs up for More Educational content! * Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only, We are not responsible for any of your financial decision.
Long
by financialfreedomgoals101
US10Y: Potentially Increasing Yield, Stronger Dollar Ahead?Hello Fellow Global Investor/Trader, Here's a Technical outlook of the US Government Bond Yield! Price Action Analysis US 10 Years Government Bond Yield ( US10Y ) has rebounded on the bullish trendline. Simultaneously, US10Y is forming the flag pattern which may indicate a continuation of the prevailing bullish trend. As Traders, We can look for other confirmation. In this case, We will wait for the price to exceed the confirmation line. Thus, we can confidently assume there is a possibility of upside movement to the target area. The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the support/target area. *Disclaimer: The outlook is only used for Educational Purposes, The Creator doesn't responsible for any of your trade position or other financial decisions*
TVC:US10YLong
by financialfreedomgoals101
6
Aussie Remains Bearish After RBA Policy Meeting Markets were slow at the start of a new trading week because of the holiday in UK, but this will be expected to change as speculators wait on CB policy decisions. RBA meeting was the first event where members judged that a further increase in interest rates would help bring inflation back to target and create a more sustainable balance of demand and supply in the Australian economy. They discussed the arguments around raising interest rates by either 25 basis points or 50 basis points. They see rates coming back to normal, meaning that sooner or later speculators could see this as bearish for the Aussie. From an Elliott wave perspective, we see pair in a deep complex correction, currently in B of Y, so there can be more weakness coming soon, especially if stocks will continue to weaken this week on the hawkish FOMC decision. So short-term pair can stay bearish but from a longer-term perspective, we assume that the pair can find a support near 0.64-0.65, possibly later this year.
by ew-forecast
KEY LEVEL TO WATCH: TOTAL2 MacroI previously estimated where altcoins might find support, and I was right... for a few weeks.... but we didn't get a serious relief rally before losing that level. Contagion has spread and 2 more giga-firms Celsius and 3AC may be insolvent / forced sellers.... And now we are a 7% drop away from a potentially very significant level... It's the 200SMA on the 1W timeframe (yellow line). We haven't come anywhere near it since pre-bull run. Before that, it never exactly offered rock-solid support, but it did act as a magnet for price action during the previous bear cycle. When it was broken previously, the Total market cap of altcoins went down another 45% before being drawn back up to it and didn't stray too far in either direction until blasting off this previous bull cycle. I'm posting these quickly so I'm sorry if some of my numbers are off, but you get the idea. It's a point of interest. If we lose it, expect more downside, but THAT will be when it's time to really pay attention and watch for a potential bottom / rally back for a bearish retest of it. THINK HAPPY TRADES THINK HAPPY TRADES CD
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
by cryptodonovan
AUDCAD DESCENDING TRIANGLE BREAKOUTPair: AUDCAD Timeframe: 1H , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, descending triangle pattern ————— Key Takeaway: Alot of bullish momentum for AUD as it is altogether, we are at a critical level of reaction at the moment by the top of our descending triangle. We are looking for a close above this level on the 4H chart, a re-test would also give us the perfect confirmation we need to enter long ————— Level needed: need a close by 0.89635 ————— Trade: Long RISK:REWARD 1:9 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Long
by TheGoldRoom
$TPGTPG telecom LTD Bullish Case -Above the 2021 Yearly open. ( this is a weekly chart so need to view yearly chart to see 2021 YO) -MACD Bull divergence -MACD bullish crossover -Above the bo line (Breakout line on daily) Would like to see a pullback into the and below the breakout line to fake out all those who got long then starts the real breakout. the FED meeting is on the 27th and anther rate hike while expected will drive another leg down in short term on Stonks imo.. watching closely.
ASX:TPGLong
by gillman_hugh
CADJPY POTENTIAL DOWNTRENDPair: CADJPY Timeframe: 1D , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, consolidation ————— Key Takeaway: Looking for breaks of this consolidation period, we have breached this level of support numerous times and we need to see a close below. looking to take profits on trend line suppot ————— Level needed: need a close by 109.375 ————— Trade: Short RISK:REWARD 1:7 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Short
by TheGoldRoom
4
EURNZD BEST TIME TO BUY !Pair: EURNZD Timeframe: 1D , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, pennant, ascending triangle ————— Key Takeaway: Seeing a breach of this vitally strong level of resistance, we have also seen a retest of this level indicating price will move upward through it. ————— Level needed: need a close by 1.65295 ————— Trade: Long RISK:REWARD 1:7 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Long
by TheGoldRoom
CADCHF PENNANT BREAKOUT?Pair: CADCHF Timeframe: 1D , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, pennant pattern ————— Key Takeaway: If we close below this support level of pennant we will look for short entry, we have also already broken high volume level, if we start seeing bullish momentum against this level then we are seeing a bounce and will look for long entry ————— Level needed: need a close by — ————— Trade: Neutral RISK:REWARD 1:4 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
by TheGoldRoom
1
Combined Macro Charts For You!I'm a big fan of exotic charts. It is often tough to gauge the current markets by looking at individual charts so sometimes I like to combine them together. Here is a rough rationale of this chart: TOTAL Crypto Total seems to have a good representation small cap behavior and is often a leading indicator of the broader risk-on market. S&P Large caps, historically it's a trailing indicator, but doesn't have such a long tail as Treasury Yields. 1/DXY Relatively good indicator of impedance changes. If I'm going to convert my dollars to something else, and then back again, it represents relatively how efficient the economic circuit is. More volatility = conflicting expectations by the market. It is sometimes inversely correlated with risk assets but not always. US02Y/US10Y Inverted 10Y/02Y. How are investors feeling about the short-term economy vs long-term? When this symbol experiences large downward volatility, the relative health of debt in the economy is unveiled and investors flee risk-on assets. I weighted each of these symbols 25% by using the 3 Year MA: ...........................3Y.MA......................factor TOTAL................1049933961759.....1 ES1!..................3723.74..................281956839 1/DXY...............0.010448................100491382251052 US02Y/US10Y..0.4784....................2194678013710 (sorry about all the dots, I had to use it to make it line up) Here is the resulting symbol: CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839+US02Y/US10Y*2194678013710 Normalized to 100: (CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839+US02Y/US10Y*2194678013710)/67060000000 Here is the index without Treasury Yields, so each remaining symbol is now 33% of the chart: CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839 Normalized to 100: (CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839)/53870000000 Here is the chart, normalized to 100 along with some rough expectations: I hope that this is somehow useful. The overall conclusion here seems to indicate the macro environment is currently not friendly at all. Thanks for taking a look and I hope you enjoyed this idea. Hopefully it makes sense and I don't believe there are any major mistakes. If you spot a mistake, or have an exotic chart of your own you would like to share, please let me know! Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets. Take care and be safe. - your fringe chartist
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by fringe_chartist
2
Consolidation/reversal area for the S&P 500?The S&P 500 sold off until June, when expectations of monetary tightening peaked. Since then, the index has powered off the June lows as the growing likelihood of recession makes it less tenable for the Fed to keep raising rates. I suspect that interest rate expectations will continue to "drive the ship," and that stock prices will peak or consolidate whenever market expectations for a "dovish pivot" peak or consolidate. Currently, FOMC FedWatch futures are pricing a 75% chance that the Fed will hike 50 bps in September, and a 25% chance that the Fed will hike 75 bps: www.cmegroup.com In November, the market is expecting a target rate of either 3% (75% chance) or 3.25% (25% chance), and in December, the market's placing about even odds that we end the year at either 3% or 3.25%. So in all, the market expects the Fed target rate to be either 75 bps or 100 bps higher than the current level by year end. This is slightly more dovish than the Fed's own projections. The current Fed dot plot indicates that the median forecast by FOMC members is that they will raise the target to 3.25% by year end. So, I think market expectations are now about where they should be. That suggests to me that most of the big gains in stocks are now behind us, and that the S&P 500's price may be entering a zone of consolidation as it approaches the 200-day EMA. We definitely could see market expectations get even more dovish if economic data stay soft. For instance, maybe the consensus for September will move to a 25 or 50 bps hike. But if the economic data looks that bad, then the stock market may find other reasons for pessimism. A strong dovish pivot could also cause inflation expectations and commodities prices to rise again, which could throw a wet blanket on the stock market rally as well. I wouldn't expect ES to be able to get much father than 4320 without causing inflation to heat up and the Fed to flip hawkish again. Bottom line: I think there's still some runway for stocks to move higher toward that 200-day EMA, but I wouldn't expect them to immediately go soaring off into a new bull market. More likely, they get a little more tentative here and consolidate for a while in this range.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
13