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Macro

Bitcoin Macro Analysis - Log Curve 2024Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth curves displaying historic price movement since its existence. A lot of discussion now on whether the recent 'top' was a completion of our 4th bullrun or not, my observations below: What we know: - Price has touched the upper band of the Log curve at the end of a bullrun, this has happened 3 times in history - highlighted in red - Price has touched the lower band of the Log curve at the end of bear markets, this has happened at least 3 times in history - highlighted in green - Price % increases have gotten smaller over time with each bullrun, as is normal with a maturing asset on a Logarithmic scale - Bitcoin's length (time/bars) of bull runs have been getting longer with each one at 11 bars, 24 bars, 35 bars respectively - highlighted in yellow - Accumulation zones in green rectangles precede future ATH's Present situation & unknowns: - Price has not touched the upper band of the Log curve - highlighted in upper grey circle - Price has not touched the lower band of the Log curve - highlighted in lower grey circle - Bitcoin's bullrun, if peaked already, will have decreased in length (1st time in history) relative to past runs, sitting at 27 bars at the peak of 69k - highlighted in lower grey box - I think to break and go below the bottom band for a longer period of time (low low prices), then it should take un-foreseen negative news in the global economy; I believe current factors are being priced already since Nov/Dec 2021. If Bitcoin's bull run is still 'in process', then it currently fits the thesis and we could expect an ATH peak in late 2023 or 2024, somewhere around 55-66 bars to completion and a tap of the upper band on the Log curve. If this is the case, we do not want to see a touch of the lower band on the Log curve to further validate this, but it doesn't mean that can't happen. Or, you can argue we've seen our bullrun already and topped at 69k, many make this argument and it's perfectly fine. If this is the case, however, then in theory we would be nearing our end of a bear market bottom, around 16-17k or perhaps one more lower low to finally bottom on a touch of the lower band of the Log curve then it proceeds to accumulation zone in green box. Whichever side you are in belief of, the resulting action should be quite similar as an investor/trader imo at this point in time. Hope this is helpful! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! V
BNC:BLXLong
by cryptovatsik
2
ARE THE BEARS GOING TO FULLY TAKE AUDUSD ?Pair: AUDUSD Timeframe: 1D , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, pennant pattern, ascending triangle ————— Key Takeaway: Saw a big pullback today for this pair up to resistance. We are seeing strength in USD which tells us the pair is going to drop. We want to see a break of bottom pennant and dynamic support before we enter short again ————— Level needed: need a close by 0.68795 ————— Trade: Short RISK:REWARD 1:8 SL: 25 TP: 195 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Short
by TheGoldRoom
Bitcoin In a Sucker's Rallyhello frends its ur pal coinholio and i have an opinion abou the marked my thinkings is that the bit coin is not at a good price. too much people think that fed will pivot at the first sign of a down turn and we will get qe to maek price again. me no thinks that will happen sooner enough until market is alredy worse than it be right now. there is a rally in stocks that bitcoin follow right now because some peeps think we can land softly, but i think we will land on our bungholes, let me explain the reason why: fed pause is not fed stimmy if internet rates make a rise, the fed will stop making them go. but fed will not give stimmy until everyone gets fired and we are balls deep in a recession. me thinks not only the soft landing narrative is false, it will break down in the next few months and bitty will be mad. recession will come sooner at the end of the year and stimmy in mid to late 2023. the numbers of peoples with job is still very high but its one of the only raisins that we arent in official recessino, spy lags behind, but bitty will follow spy price action and get crushed to oblivion in a recession. people is buying less stuffs, less stuffs is being producted, there is less supply, less demand, less of the real wagerinos. we is at the cusp of recession and its coming sooner than u think. my source is a forest rat, i met him in a forest and his name is benjamin and he told me that things are looking bad and i should move into the forest with him. then we discusted the market and he said he sold his house a few months ago. some people use like, leading and coincidence indicators to make decides about this but woodland creatures i thin can tell a more accurate story about whas gonna happen. im gonna not post much cuz they dont have internet in the forest but i put a lot of money into james bond and took him into the forest cuz apparently he does goodly during slowing economix gross. thank you for watching if u like my video please smash that like button and subscribe to my channel and dont forget to enable the notifications so i can tell u which berries are safe to eat and which ones give u the runs
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by coinhoIio
THE BEST PLACE TO BE SHORTING GBPNZDPair: GBPNZD Timeframe: 1D , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, trend channel ————— Key Takeaway: GBP has significant weakness as it is and have been down trending for some time. We have just bounced off the top of the trend channel, high volume level and rounded number level which tells us we are in for another bearish swing ————— Level needed: need a close by 1.90325 ————— Trade: Short RISK:REWARD 1:4 SL: 40 TP: 150 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Short
by TheGoldRoom
2
USDCHF ARE WE ABOUT TO SEE A REVERSAL?Pair: USDCHF Timeframe: 1D , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, ascending triangle pattern, pennant ————— Key Takeaway: We have broken our upwards trend line and seen a bounce off our resistance levels. We now need to see a push through support and rounded number and we will then be entering short ————— Level needed: need a close by ————— Trade: Short RISK:REWARD 1:11 SL: 20 TP: 220 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Short
by TheGoldRoom
CADCHF REVERSAL INBOUND?Pair: CADCHF Timeframe: 1D , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, trend channel break ————— Key Takeaway: Price flew through the top of our trend channel indicating a change in direction, we have seen a sharp reaction to our support level and price is jumping up very quickly so is a perfect time for a long entry, we will be riding this to the next significant high ————— Level needed: need a close by 0.74145 ————— Trade: Long RISK:REWARD 1:6 SL: 25 TP: 150 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Long
by TheGoldRoom
NZDUSD CONTINUATION SETUPPair: NZDUSD Timeframe: 1D , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, Fibonacci retracement ————— Key Takeaway: Seen price break trend line and test support, we have also seen a bounce off 0.5 on the fib retracement level. As USD strength is still all there we will be shorting this pair as we are starting to see signs of a continuation of bearish movement ————— Level needed: need a close by 0.61945 ————— Trade: Short RISK:REWARD 1:7 SL: 15 TP: 100 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Short
by TheGoldRoom
AUDNZD DOUBLE TOP Pair: AUDNZD Timeframe: 1D , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance ————— Key Takeaway: Seen alot of resistance against trend line and a double top form on the 1H chart, once we see a good amount of bearish momentum we will be looking for short entry ————— Level needed: need a close by 1.11460 ————— Trade: Short RISK:REWARD 1:13 SL: 10 TP: 130 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Short
by TheGoldRoom
1
USDCHF, WILL WE KEEP CLIMBING THE LADDER AND BREAK PENNANT?Pair: USDCHF Timeframe: 1D , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, pennant pattern, ascending triangle pattern ————— Key Takeaway: Seen alot of strength with USD this month and we continue to climb the scale in USD base currency pairs. On the chart we can see a very steep climb for this pair which leads for me to believe that we can very easily break resistance and top trend line. Although we could see a bonce depending on high risk news we see this week, we always have to keep options open ————— Level needed: need a close by 0.96690 ————— Trade: Long RISK:REWARD 1:7 SL: 25 TP: 182 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Long
by TheGoldRoom
CADCHF PENNANT BREAK CONTINUATION?Pair: CADCHF Timeframe: 1H, 4H, 1D Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, pennant pattern, trend channel ————— Key Takeaway: Stuck very well to downward trend channel so we are looking to sell when price breaks pennant and high volume level ————— Level needed: need a close by 0.73730 ————— Trade: Short RISK:REWARD 1:5 SL: 15 TP: 80 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Short
by TheGoldRoom
2
Personally I think Red path wins here.Opinion: - Biden inflation pivot ahead of mid-terms BIDEN: WE ARE SEEING PROGRESS ON GASOLINE PRICE REDUCTIONS AND INFLATION. - FOMC minutes announcing 50bps or lower futures hikes to "Gauge the effect of previous hikes" - Mid-terms nearing and political funding needs - E.U cost of living crisis/ German PPI @ 37% / Continued conflict in Ukraine & commodities crisis GERMAN PPI YOY ACTUAL 37.2% (FORECAST 31.8%, PREVIOUS 32.7%) $MACRO With these factors in mind and an acknowledgement that we do need more QT and hikes; all the while, taking into account that any further tightening will place us on a 3rd quarter of negative GDP growth. It is my opinion that instead the political needs will be more important. This makes me think that the E.U in the name of self-preservation will subsidize house-holds, while increasing barriers to debt over winter. ("Controlled" inflationary action). U.S should as announced by the FOMC minutes go through a period of hike stabilization (Re-instating stability in the procurement of structured leverage / Inflation action) From here I see 2 option: 1. Politics forcing us into hyper-inflation and bitcoin aswell as other assets experience a fast recovery. 2. Politics forcing us into hyper-inflation and bitcoin aswell as other assets experience a short lived fast recovery. (A.K.A tightening and QT break). Lasting possibly until the end of the mid-terms. What I do not think is possible: A return to BTC sub 9k when inflation is running high. What to keep in mind: Inflation comes second to job market. Recession/Depression is a much worse evil than inflation. Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA: Each level L1-L3 (S1-S3) and TP1-TP3 has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's and L's these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic. Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. FED Macro Situation Consideration: All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE I am not a financial advisor. The Content in this TradingView Idea is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this idea constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content on this idea post is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the idea/post constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the idea/post constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content on the idea/post before making any decisions based on such information.
CME:BTC1!Long
by TheBitcoinGeneration
1
Market Makers Dump APPLE 8/19The current price on Apple is 174 at the close. Market makers have been using apple as a way to pump the market before the greatest crash since 2008. Based on volume and open interest of 145c and 175c calls, market makers have created thousand of spreads. VRVP indicates a midline of 150 so a 145c call would be minimally influenced by theta burn from a quick drop in the market. So what did the market makers do, they purchase 145c calls as "equity" to their spread, PUMPING the price up over time, weeks and weeks at a time, and now selling 175c calls into the market, directly to blind retail traders. What's going to happen if they all sell their 145c calls, that's HUGE equity being liquidated, support levels disappearing and a correction will be necessary to fill the gap. With calls being at 175, and Apple closing at 174 while testing 175, they maximize their profit on 175c calls because these positions on at the flipping point between being in the money and out of the money, gaining the extrinsic value of momentum for a potential leap above 175, on top of the intrinsic value of being above the breakeven price level. I expect a HUGE short in pre or today's aftermarket. Because 175c calls will be destroyed, DESTROYED, if apple opens at 173 or less. and what will happen, these 100,000 calls sold into the market are going to realize how saturated they are and when one starts selling next thing you know the calls are worthless and this will cause mass selling. I truly believe D Day is tomorrow, with these options expiring, market makers will literally just EXERCISE their 145c options and sell them all into the market, in American markets you can exercise calls at any time, especially in pre-market. Truly fascinating that market makers are allowed to make this, but I guess it's how the cycle sustains itself, destroying the middle and lower class that invest their savings because then they need to work forever as slaves for the people at the top, truly fascinating.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by kibakilla33
3
🤖 #BTCLIVE - 15.08 - #IDEA 🤖 - Part 2🤖 #BTCLIVE - 15.08 - #IDEA 🤖 - Part 2 Just taking a slightly more macro look at the whole BTC status and we have a short term bearish rising wedge which we all know about although the longer term falling wedge is starting to come to a close. If we breakout of this falling wedge then we could be on for a massive push up - although break down on this rising wedge could bring alot of pain the next week is going to be very telling about a possible longer term expectation for #BTC
CME:BTC1!
by Kryptochristian
Oil markets and demand destruction.The Russia & Ukraine kerfuffle is opening a gap in supply and demand since February 24th with their invasion. G7 countries will have a common interest in bringing the conflict to a close as the effects begin to weigh on the economy more generally. Emerging markets can take advantage of the situation and build out their consumption infrastructure with cover of high prices. There is a 3.5-4.5 million barrel deficit in supply caused by the Ukraine war. Currently, this deficit is filled by SPR releases from the strategic stockpiles. Crack spreads are widening as demand changes for refined products. There is an 8-9% rise every year in energy consumption world wide due mostly to emerging markets. Market price signals at work. Supply is down rapidly so prices go up followed by demand going away due to high prices and demand destruction occurs either temporarily or long term. Due to sanctions, this particular demand destruction is probably more long-term. Simply put oil gets expensive so people drive less. Miles driven has been dropping for a long time with the rise of SUVs and dropped off a cliff with the pandemic before then recovering. There has been an 8% drop in gas sales in California due to electric cars. General demand destruction is starting to sink in but hasn't gotten a hold yet. Electric cars spreading creates permanent demand destruction thus long-term shorts on oil and gas based energy are good for both the investor and the planet. That being said recent shorts haven't been a good play as the price of oil likely remains elevated or flat through this recession due to the current geopolitical factors at play combined with the inflation narrative. If inflation comes down but remains elevated and supply picks up prices will neutralize and cancel out the forces before turning around completely like lumber. Emerging markets are still the greatest marginal consumer of oil and petroleum products. Such markets demand more energy every year for their growning and modernizing economies. China is currently seeing their transition away due to their malaca problem and has given themselves until 2030 to peak emissions with net-Zero in 2060. India is on the rise and needs to balance energy needs with geopolitical concerns such as an anti-China coalition with the west because something something the specter of communism. What else is new? Africa has just begun their transition to high energy needs along with South Amercia. Fundamental Bearish narratives emerging out of China are weighing on the market but having little effect quite yet. Flight numbers are way down for instance and the real estate kerfuffle continues. However the models were built to predict capitalism so they may not apply perfectly here. India continues to buy Russian crude due to need and that's got the west in a tizzy due to the aforementioned ghost of Christmas past. At least its oil and not their massive coal reserves. Oil might be the key to getting the FED to turn around due to the feedback loop between politicians and the reserve. The market seems to sense this relationship. Any bull thesis will rely on government incompetence on energy narratives. The squabble between political interests will only continue until we can quantify the externalities at play. Let's not rearange the deck chairs on the titanic and focus on the problem. The oil energy industry has lost money on long term investments for year's and finally made some due to the current unique political situation and the pandemic. Politicians need political support from environmentalists so they reasonably take profits from and industry causing externalities for the rest of us. Except for in the good old USA, as we like to ride our nukes into the ground like a bucking bronco thank you very much. Energy corporate profit haircuts accelerate the long term demand destruction which in this authors opinion is a good thing. short term we have elevated prices that will peak and drop as the recession narrative sinks in reinforcing the demand destruction reminding everyone why relying on gas prices at the pump might be a bad political strategy long term. Coming out of the recession the destruction might be permanent reductions in consumption in Europe combined with rising consumption in emerging markets canceling each other out. In short the bearish narrative on the wider market is currently driven by the energy narratives. The market is seeking a way to get the FED to print more free money. Oil prices remaining elevated causing a slow down in the market everyone can blame on a geo political kerfuffle in Ukraine and economic down turn in China, the ghost of christmas future that fits their various energy narratives looks like the current best candidate. Thus elevated crude prices will continue before collapsing with the market as recession becomes the narrative. Ride the short after the turn. All the best, see you on the moon.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by GreatScottTheMoon
Nice Location for Short EURUSDThe EURUSD chart still looks rather bearish, with the only real bullish angle being that the huge gamma pocket and round number at 1.00 held right at the peak of EUR bearishness. Here is the daily chart, with the 60 and 120-day moving averages. A close above 1.04 would take out the 60-day moving average and would clear the pivot marked by the thin red line. The thin red lines show that each broken support has held as strong resistance with just one tiny overshoot on the one in early April. Good trends tend to hold resistance at prior support and this has been a good trend. Selling at the red line and the 60-day with a stop above the 120-day has been a good expression of the trend. A daily close above 1.04 is bullish. 1.0613 is big daddy but that moving average was only tested once (in February 2022) and the 60-day has been way more actionable. Rate differentials offer nothing bullish in EURUSD, and relative equity performance has been in line with the currency. On the bullish side, BTPs are back to 200bps after twice testing 250bps vs. Germany so you can argue the much-hated TPI (the antifragmentation tool) has worked, to some extent. Then again, BTPs are mostly just a risky asset and they have performed worse than SPX on the massive recovery in risky asset sentiment since mid-June. SPX is making new 3-month highs while BTP spreads are nowhere near the tights printed in May. To me, this all still points to EUR softness, but as I described in my newsletter yesterday I’ve abandoned the USD side and switched to EURAUD. And if you are bearish USD, that means long AUD, or long carry are the better trades as we enter a two-week period of low vol, out of office emails, early departures, and family tripping. And the UK you still have plenty to worry about, considering today's Bloomberg piece discussing how Liz Truss may be a threat to the pound and UK bonds. The chart looks particularly nice, location-wise as you only have to risk 70 pips from here. Short EURUSD here at 1.0346 with a stop loss at 1.0416. Take profit at 1.0166. good luck ⇅ be nimble bd
Short
by brentdonnelly_spectramarkets
1
USDJPY ASCENDING TRIANGLE BREAKPair: USDJPY Timeframe: 1H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, ascending wedge pattern, fib golden pocket level ————— Key Takeaway: Need to see break of this ascending triangle to the down depending on the US Core Inflation rate we see today and a break of high volume level ————— Level needed: need a close by 134.925 ————— Trade: Short RISK:REWARD 1:15 SL: 31 TP: 452 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Short
by TheGoldRoom
1