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Capitulation soonWhere do I start? Since the beginning of this bear market, I have observed every single leg down. And we reached a price level ($17k), where one could argue that this is the bottom. And for a good reason. The pattern for a lower low during summer got invalidated, lots of blood on the streets, so called ''tourists'' gone from the market, oversold metrics etc etc. What we got is accumulation between $18-25k. We could potentially say that accumulating around our low is not necessarily bad, but I'll shift this monologue towards the real economy. The real world. It's ugly guys. It's super duper ugly. Last couple of days have made it clear to me that this can't be the bottom. Too much pressure all over the board. Check FX, check bonds, check macro, check geopolitics. Something must break real soon. Presure is not sustainable and cannot be absorbed for much longer. Central banks must kill the economies and protect them at the same time. The BOE is a brilliant example. They stopped purchasing bonds, til they realised that their pension funds are about to get wrecked. They changed their policy in a day with a direct market intervention. Mind here, that inflation ranges between 10-12% in the UK. This hurts the reliability of policymakers, but at the same time, there is literally nothing else to do. Other CBs will follow in this panic mode. Japan is already there. The reason I'm writing these events is because in my eyes, there is nothing bullish to boost markets. Anytime soon. Risk is huge, and reward seems at question. As you can see in the chart I've been observing since December 2021, CMF has been my ''friend indicator'' during this downtrend. Along with some very basic technicals, nothing too complicated. What does CMF tell me now? Leg down. If this gets triggered by a credit event, I don't know. If it does, I'm afraid lots of what we've taken for granted will be questioned. It will be ugly, and I'm not even sure about how the market will look like after this. I would bid around $10-13k, and pray this is it. Lastly, one thing you shouldn't forget is that crypto has never been through a bear market in equities, a recession in global economies, and most worryingly a market collapse equivalent to or maybe worse than the financial crisis in 2008. Stay safe. I'm out. I hope I'm wrong.
Short
by koun_the_wolf
6
Would Stronger Dollar Weaken Indonesia's rupiah to Rp15,000?The inflation rate has reached above 8% territory in the U.S. Higher Inflation Rate forced the Fed to raise the interest rate again by 50 basis points in May 2022 and it seems the Fed will remain hawkish for stabilizing inflation to a more normalized level. Commonly, the Increasing interest rate will make a stronger dollar because it will attract investment capital from investors abroad seeking higher returns on bonds and interest-rate products. Therefore, a bullish/Stronger Dollar outlook might prevail and potentially weakens Indonesia's Rupiah. From Chart Perspective: USD/IDR is moving above the Exponential moving average of 200, which means a bullish bias. Recently, The pair has broken out of the falling wedge pattern, accompanied by a golden cross in the MACD indicator. it signifies a potential bullish bias to the target area. Smash the Follow and Give us Thumbs up for More Educational content! * Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only, We are not responsible for any of your financial decision.
Long
by financialfreedomgoals101
US10Y: Potentially Increasing Yield, Stronger Dollar Ahead?Hello Fellow Global Investor/Trader, Here's a Technical outlook of the US Government Bond Yield! Price Action Analysis US 10 Years Government Bond Yield ( US10Y ) has rebounded on the bullish trendline. Simultaneously, US10Y is forming the flag pattern which may indicate a continuation of the prevailing bullish trend. As Traders, We can look for other confirmation. In this case, We will wait for the price to exceed the confirmation line. Thus, we can confidently assume there is a possibility of upside movement to the target area. The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the support/target area. *Disclaimer: The outlook is only used for Educational Purposes, The Creator doesn't responsible for any of your trade position or other financial decisions*
TVC:US10YLong
by financialfreedomgoals101
6
Aussie Remains Bearish After RBA Policy Meeting Markets were slow at the start of a new trading week because of the holiday in UK, but this will be expected to change as speculators wait on CB policy decisions. RBA meeting was the first event where members judged that a further increase in interest rates would help bring inflation back to target and create a more sustainable balance of demand and supply in the Australian economy. They discussed the arguments around raising interest rates by either 25 basis points or 50 basis points. They see rates coming back to normal, meaning that sooner or later speculators could see this as bearish for the Aussie. From an Elliott wave perspective, we see pair in a deep complex correction, currently in B of Y, so there can be more weakness coming soon, especially if stocks will continue to weaken this week on the hawkish FOMC decision. So short-term pair can stay bearish but from a longer-term perspective, we assume that the pair can find a support near 0.64-0.65, possibly later this year.
by ew-forecast
KEY LEVEL TO WATCH: TOTAL2 MacroI previously estimated where altcoins might find support, and I was right... for a few weeks.... but we didn't get a serious relief rally before losing that level. Contagion has spread and 2 more giga-firms Celsius and 3AC may be insolvent / forced sellers.... And now we are a 7% drop away from a potentially very significant level... It's the 200SMA on the 1W timeframe (yellow line). We haven't come anywhere near it since pre-bull run. Before that, it never exactly offered rock-solid support, but it did act as a magnet for price action during the previous bear cycle. When it was broken previously, the Total market cap of altcoins went down another 45% before being drawn back up to it and didn't stray too far in either direction until blasting off this previous bull cycle. I'm posting these quickly so I'm sorry if some of my numbers are off, but you get the idea. It's a point of interest. If we lose it, expect more downside, but THAT will be when it's time to really pay attention and watch for a potential bottom / rally back for a bearish retest of it. THINK HAPPY TRADES THINK HAPPY TRADES CD
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
by cryptodonovan
AUDCAD DESCENDING TRIANGLE BREAKOUTPair: AUDCAD Timeframe: 1H , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, descending triangle pattern ————— Key Takeaway: Alot of bullish momentum for AUD as it is altogether, we are at a critical level of reaction at the moment by the top of our descending triangle. We are looking for a close above this level on the 4H chart, a re-test would also give us the perfect confirmation we need to enter long ————— Level needed: need a close by 0.89635 ————— Trade: Long RISK:REWARD 1:9 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Long
by TheGoldRoom
$TPGTPG telecom LTD Bullish Case -Above the 2021 Yearly open. ( this is a weekly chart so need to view yearly chart to see 2021 YO) -MACD Bull divergence -MACD bullish crossover -Above the bo line (Breakout line on daily) Would like to see a pullback into the and below the breakout line to fake out all those who got long then starts the real breakout. the FED meeting is on the 27th and anther rate hike while expected will drive another leg down in short term on Stonks imo.. watching closely.
ASX:TPGLong
by gillman_hugh
CADJPY POTENTIAL DOWNTRENDPair: CADJPY Timeframe: 1D , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, consolidation ————— Key Takeaway: Looking for breaks of this consolidation period, we have breached this level of support numerous times and we need to see a close below. looking to take profits on trend line suppot ————— Level needed: need a close by 109.375 ————— Trade: Short RISK:REWARD 1:7 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Short
by TheGoldRoom
4
EURNZD BEST TIME TO BUY !Pair: EURNZD Timeframe: 1D , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, pennant, ascending triangle ————— Key Takeaway: Seeing a breach of this vitally strong level of resistance, we have also seen a retest of this level indicating price will move upward through it. ————— Level needed: need a close by 1.65295 ————— Trade: Long RISK:REWARD 1:7 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Long
by TheGoldRoom
CADCHF PENNANT BREAKOUT?Pair: CADCHF Timeframe: 1D , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, pennant pattern ————— Key Takeaway: If we close below this support level of pennant we will look for short entry, we have also already broken high volume level, if we start seeing bullish momentum against this level then we are seeing a bounce and will look for long entry ————— Level needed: need a close by — ————— Trade: Neutral RISK:REWARD 1:4 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
by TheGoldRoom
1
Combined Macro Charts For You!I'm a big fan of exotic charts. It is often tough to gauge the current markets by looking at individual charts so sometimes I like to combine them together. Here is a rough rationale of this chart: TOTAL Crypto Total seems to have a good representation small cap behavior and is often a leading indicator of the broader risk-on market. S&P Large caps, historically it's a trailing indicator, but doesn't have such a long tail as Treasury Yields. 1/DXY Relatively good indicator of impedance changes. If I'm going to convert my dollars to something else, and then back again, it represents relatively how efficient the economic circuit is. More volatility = conflicting expectations by the market. It is sometimes inversely correlated with risk assets but not always. US02Y/US10Y Inverted 10Y/02Y. How are investors feeling about the short-term economy vs long-term? When this symbol experiences large downward volatility, the relative health of debt in the economy is unveiled and investors flee risk-on assets. I weighted each of these symbols 25% by using the 3 Year MA: ...........................3Y.MA......................factor TOTAL................1049933961759.....1 ES1!..................3723.74..................281956839 1/DXY...............0.010448................100491382251052 US02Y/US10Y..0.4784....................2194678013710 (sorry about all the dots, I had to use it to make it line up) Here is the resulting symbol: CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839+US02Y/US10Y*2194678013710 Normalized to 100: (CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839+US02Y/US10Y*2194678013710)/67060000000 Here is the index without Treasury Yields, so each remaining symbol is now 33% of the chart: CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839 Normalized to 100: (CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL+1/TVC:DXY*100491382251052+CME_MINI:ES1!*281956839)/53870000000 Here is the chart, normalized to 100 along with some rough expectations: I hope that this is somehow useful. The overall conclusion here seems to indicate the macro environment is currently not friendly at all. Thanks for taking a look and I hope you enjoyed this idea. Hopefully it makes sense and I don't believe there are any major mistakes. If you spot a mistake, or have an exotic chart of your own you would like to share, please let me know! Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets. Take care and be safe. - your fringe chartist
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by fringe_chartist
2
Consolidation/reversal area for the S&P 500?The S&P 500 sold off until June, when expectations of monetary tightening peaked. Since then, the index has powered off the June lows as the growing likelihood of recession makes it less tenable for the Fed to keep raising rates. I suspect that interest rate expectations will continue to "drive the ship," and that stock prices will peak or consolidate whenever market expectations for a "dovish pivot" peak or consolidate. Currently, FOMC FedWatch futures are pricing a 75% chance that the Fed will hike 50 bps in September, and a 25% chance that the Fed will hike 75 bps: www.cmegroup.com In November, the market is expecting a target rate of either 3% (75% chance) or 3.25% (25% chance), and in December, the market's placing about even odds that we end the year at either 3% or 3.25%. So in all, the market expects the Fed target rate to be either 75 bps or 100 bps higher than the current level by year end. This is slightly more dovish than the Fed's own projections. The current Fed dot plot indicates that the median forecast by FOMC members is that they will raise the target to 3.25% by year end. So, I think market expectations are now about where they should be. That suggests to me that most of the big gains in stocks are now behind us, and that the S&P 500's price may be entering a zone of consolidation as it approaches the 200-day EMA. We definitely could see market expectations get even more dovish if economic data stay soft. For instance, maybe the consensus for September will move to a 25 or 50 bps hike. But if the economic data looks that bad, then the stock market may find other reasons for pessimism. A strong dovish pivot could also cause inflation expectations and commodities prices to rise again, which could throw a wet blanket on the stock market rally as well. I wouldn't expect ES to be able to get much father than 4320 without causing inflation to heat up and the Fed to flip hawkish again. Bottom line: I think there's still some runway for stocks to move higher toward that 200-day EMA, but I wouldn't expect them to immediately go soaring off into a new bull market. More likely, they get a little more tentative here and consolidate for a while in this range.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
13
$XLE: Weekly and monthly uptrendNice signal in energy names. Macro and fiscal policy are sure making the Fed's life hard. The trend in commodities, energy, value vs growth remains bullish, same as the trend in the Dollar vs the Euro. The recent drop in inflation and oil created a very low risk buy opportunity in commodities in general. I've rotated away from my growth focused portfolio in the prior week, and am long $XLE and other names in my portfolio. I suggest you do the same, very interesting time, where the easy money disappeared from markets and people will likely get schooled time and time again trying to gamble in the same garbage names as between 2020 and 2022. Stay safe out there! Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:XLELong
by IvanLabrie
CADCHF BEARISH SWING OFF RESISTANCE?Pair: CADCHF Timeframe: 1D , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, ascending triangle, consolidation ————— Key Takeaway: We have seen the level of resistance we are now at hold for a few weeks and price cannot seem to break it. If we close below round number and high volume level then we will be entering short ————— Level needed: need a close by 0.74470 ————— Trade: Short RISK:REWARD 1:5 SL: 15 TP: 75 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Short
by TheGoldRoom
Bitcoin Trend Analytics August 31The key support sustained the price yesterday and saw a quick bounce. The key support boosts the confidence of the bulls. The short-term bullish support is able to keep the price above but not strong enough. Only by pushing it up and breaking the intraday resistance for 24 hours will the short-term bulls firm their stance. It is a crucial moment from today until tomorrow as long-term data is going to be updated. At the same time, QT is going to double. If the market keeps the current momentum, it’ll go against the macro with an outstanding performance. Otherwise, a slide will follow after the breakdown of the key support. QT doubles in September. Fed lifts the upper limit of QT to 95 billion (60 billion treasury bonds + 35 billion MBS). The market is under the pressure of quick and massive liquidity drainage. The market expected interest rate hike in September: 50bp(31.5%),75bp(68.5%)
by BitMidas
Bitcoin Macro Analysis - Log Curve 2024Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth curves displaying historic price movement since its existence. A lot of discussion now on whether the recent 'top' was a completion of our 4th bullrun or not, my observations below: What we know: - Price has touched the upper band of the Log curve at the end of a bullrun, this has happened 3 times in history - highlighted in red - Price has touched the lower band of the Log curve at the end of bear markets, this has happened at least 3 times in history - highlighted in green - Price % increases have gotten smaller over time with each bullrun, as is normal with a maturing asset on a Logarithmic scale - Bitcoin's length (time/bars) of bull runs have been getting longer with each one at 11 bars, 24 bars, 35 bars respectively - highlighted in yellow - Accumulation zones in green rectangles precede future ATH's Present situation & unknowns: - Price has not touched the upper band of the Log curve - highlighted in upper grey circle - Price has not touched the lower band of the Log curve - highlighted in lower grey circle - Bitcoin's bullrun, if peaked already, will have decreased in length (1st time in history) relative to past runs, sitting at 27 bars at the peak of 69k - highlighted in lower grey box - I think to break and go below the bottom band for a longer period of time (low low prices), then it should take un-foreseen negative news in the global economy; I believe current factors are being priced already since Nov/Dec 2021. If Bitcoin's bull run is still 'in process', then it currently fits the thesis and we could expect an ATH peak in late 2023 or 2024, somewhere around 55-66 bars to completion and a tap of the upper band on the Log curve. If this is the case, we do not want to see a touch of the lower band on the Log curve to further validate this, but it doesn't mean that can't happen. Or, you can argue we've seen our bullrun already and topped at 69k, many make this argument and it's perfectly fine. If this is the case, however, then in theory we would be nearing our end of a bear market bottom, around 16-17k or perhaps one more lower low to finally bottom on a touch of the lower band of the Log curve then it proceeds to accumulation zone in green box. Whichever side you are in belief of, the resulting action should be quite similar as an investor/trader imo at this point in time. Hope this is helpful! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! V
BNC:BLXLong
by cryptovatsik
2