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Macro

MACRO Pivot PointsThis chart proves price will always return to the Macro Pivot Point. Being that we know this FACT we build our strategies and formulas around this objective institutional structure. This structure resides right above the body of the candle to the top of the wick. We also KNOW that wicks identify price action and structure. This is also an objective FACT. Therefore when we leverage the two Objective facts A. Price always returns back to the Macro PP (place where it started) B. Wicks Identify Price Action And Structure We can build very strong objective high probability set ups and entries that will extract as many pips out of the market as the move will give us. This is where I build my Signature Trade Entry called the MET (Mount Everest Trade) Time is the most valuable asset in life and in Forex Trading. When you know the time your asset moves you can begin to PIN POINT down to the second what your asset will do. There are objective times and patterns Snipers KNOW like the back of our hands that enable us to engage the market objectively.
by Master-Jedi-Trader
Blockware Intelligence NewsletterBlockware Intelligence Newsletter Summary (for week 7/4 - 7/8): The equity indexes have seen a strong bounce this week, much of which has stemmed from short-covering as we can see with QQQ’s Aggregate Short-Interest. While it’s certainly possible that this is the market’s bottom, there are a few areas close overhead that could turn into resistance in the coming sessions. Fixed-income securities began to sell off again this week and the 2/10Y yield spread flipped negative for the second time in 2022. The Atlanta Fed has continued to lower their Q2 GDP estimate and it now sits at -1.9%. As discussed last week, unemployment data does not back the thesis that the US is currently in a recession. Bitcoin is 31 days into a miner capitulation according to the hash ribbon metric. The end of a miner capitulation historically marks a bear market bottom. Updated: Miner Network Breakeven Distribution Table and Chart Mining difficulty is trending down, but not at the same pace as the China mining ban which was unprecedented.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by BlockwareSolutions
5
Factors currently influencing the CHF and opportunitiesThe Swiss Franc has seen some crazy moves since April. In the last quarter, we saw the CHF weaken on the onset of the Russian invasion. Then the SNB raised rates by whooping 50 bps for the first time in years. This led the Swiss government bond yields to spike with USDCHF weakened in days. Since then, speculators have pulled back rate hike bets in the face of an economic growth slowdown in Europe. with the Swiss 2 year bond yields back below 0%. So what does this mean for Swiss Franc crosses? USDCHF I expect the currency to weaken against the USD as traders bet that the Fed will maintain their tightening policy until inflation is below their 2% target. AUDCHF The RBA is also on a tightening cycle with the RBA expected to hike rates further to the end of 2022. In addition to this, the Australian economy seems to be resilient with data coming out of the country being strong. China's PBOC and CCP support for the economy is expected to provide support for the Aussie. CADCHF The oil linked Loonie is having support from higher energy prices and a BoC that is also on a rate hiking cycle. Technically speaking, the pair has gone back above the 100Day moving average and I expect it to test the cluster resistance level 0.769xx from 2014-2019 Other pairs that are interesting are: CHFJPY Major risk to short-selling the pair is that bond yield differentials are expected to remain high hence JPY strength looks like a long shot for Q3 NZDJPY Recovery of the Chinese economy is going to support the commodity-linked Kiwi. However, strength of the pair is not expected to be higher than that of the AUDCHF Summary CHF weakness brings a lot of opportunities. However, it's important to note that tailrisk to these trades exist. In the current environment, FX volatility is high and could wipe you out. Be safe out there
Long
by GrizzlyBearBee
3
JICPT| recession fear weighed on markets!Hello everyone. US 10Y yield has been up by a lot since middle of last year due to inflation issues. US oil posted incredible performance due to supply issues caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Now, both of them fell a lot today. I also noted gold also dipped. Only dollar is rising today. I've been through this several times in the past few years. When everything drops, except the dollar index, investors are concerned about the future growth. The main driver of the market has shifted from the war and inflation to the economy growth. According to the dot plot, the median year-end projection for the federal funds rate moved up to 3.4%. That's way much higher than previous projection. I remembered a model suggested a possible 40% drop from the high created last year. Before the inflation got controlled, market will be under pressure due to series of rate hikes. I guess the peak will be around September. The more Fed raises the target rate, the more room it can reduce to spur the economy in the future .
TVC:US10Y
by JICPT
BTCUSD weekly (06/07/2022)Today we are going to see the extended triangle model that is forming the price of the BTC /USD pair in weekly candlesticks, below of the pattern we have left the acclaimed 200-period moving average (200MA), one of the most important resistence on the bitcoin cycles, we are below that resistence but only temporary. RSI in addition touches on the relative outside lows (oversold). Last cycle ATH is making furthermore a Buying level. A possible trend change is coming around that leves in the next weeks/months. Remember that it's very important to have liquidity for these macro-scale price action zones. I hope that this analysis will be of great help to those who doubt about entries in these areas ;D
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by AVNGL01
Third Time is a Charm: Chinese New Year: Yatsen Retail$YSG has been down only for its existence (i got fleeced badly in the first few post IPO months) fundamentals vs share price are converging toward a point of must-buy China and Chinese ADRs are always known to be massive risk - because many Chinese frauds are in the history book IF this turns out not to be a fraud, Rather it turns out to be the NIO Motors of Retail MakeUp and lifestyle branding THEN this becomes an easy 4 bagger and potentially a 20 bagger in the next few years.
NYSE:YSGLong
by noam_chom
AUDJPY breaks 50 Day Moving averageThe pair has been pivoting to reverse May - June gains. The pair has been printing lower highs forming a descending triangle. A confirmation of the break on the daily timeframe will warrant a short-sale. Fundamentally, the AUD is struggling in the face of a global economic slowdown. The currency, a bellwether for global risk sentiment, weakened after the RBA raised rates further to 1.35%. The commodity linked currency is falling as commodities prices dip in the face of a possible global recession. The JPY safe-haven properties are starting to show up following risk-off sentiments as traders weigh in on recessionary fears making this the ideal pair to trade for the rest of the year. Risks to this trade remain in the back of my mind. Australia, as opposed to other major economies, is doing a lot better. China's recovery could support the currency. Further inflationary economic releases could push global bond yield higher lifting the interest rate differentials the therefore the the pair. Trade with caution
Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
Interesting Bottoming Fractal for BTCBitcoin has seen a nasty capitulation candle down to the 55 Monthly EMA / 0.618 macro Fibonacci level from its all-time highs and has since bounced to the 30k region. Given the rapid selloff, I firmly believe that we are now closer to a bottom than a top. The most bearish calls and technical analysis that I have seen (barring zero), are the 12k calls, 200Week moving average call (currently 22k or the 55 monthly ema bottom call at 24.5k). There is a possibility of a bullish relief rally continuing should the NASDAQ continue to show strength and the dollar continue to weaken. However, Bitcoin remains in a bear market until we break the 200 Day moving average / 50 Week moving average and hold it as support. In the bearish case, I am sharing an interesting fractal that would suggest that the majority of the downside move towards the bottom could be In and how we could arrive at the 200 Week Moving average, which has marked the bottom on the past three big bear market selloff. Not financial advice. Note, that this is only one of many scenarios that I am currently evaluating that could play out.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TraderHalai
MACRO bearish thesis semiconductorsHey all, I wanted to share my thoughts with you guys regarding semiconductors as that was one of the sectors people were most bullish on back when the market seemingly could only go up. That is no longer the case. If you look at names like AMAT and TSM, the distribution on semiconductors is in the past, and now we are in the markdown phase(A lot of false breakouts and Wyckoff distribution looks across the board). Semiconductors are very cyclical stocks and are still relatively overvalued compared to the rest of the market. I am actually quite bullish on semiconductors over the short term and fundamentally, but I do anticipate names in the industry to resolve lower and rallies to be faded. As a bear, I would wait to short significant rallies- watch the next few weeks as I think semis are going to rally in July.
NASDAQ:SMH
by MichaelEugen1
1
Buffet Indicator insightsDespite the recent downturn in the equity market, the Total Market Cap over GDP - also known as Buffet Indicator - clearly shows that there still might be a significant market crash ahead. Assuming the market will reach the " Fairly valued " territory, it means that a further 25% decline is to be expected. Assuming instead that the market will ultimately become " Significantly Undervalued " - as it happened after both most recent market crashes (except after COVID due to the massive Fed intervention) - we should expect a further 50% decline.
FRED:WILL5000PRFC
by a.b
BTC: Don't DCA YetMacro conditions couldn’t be any worse. Starting this month, the Fed unleashed its quantitative tightening (QT) plans, trimming the $9trillion balance sheet at an unprecedented scale (current run-off cap: $47.5bn/month initial; $95bn/month 3 month later; 2017 run-off: max $50bn/month). The last two quantitative tightening led to a sharp rise in yields in 2013 and a repo crisis in 2019 respectively. Unfortunately, this time around, the Fed has to deal with a much larger balance sheet and all-time high inflation rate since 1982. Without the ability to print real world supply of goods and services (factories, natural resources), the Fed has lever on the demand side, but lowering demand means hikes in unemployment (which the Fed is already targeting). With a 7% gap between short-term rate and inflation rate, can the Fed “just rise unemployment a little bit” without causing a recession? Extremely hard unless real world supply of goods and services picks up. For us crypto traders and investors, the question is - isn’t bitcoin an inflation hedge, and if global market enters a recession, wouldn’t bitcoin be the risk-off asset of choice? My take on this is not in this cycle. Bitcoin has not experienced a proper traditional finance bear market yet and has performed poorly during past tapering and quantitative tightening environments. Different phases of quantitative easing, tapering, and quantitative tightening are marked on the chart above. After three rounds of quantitative easing from 2010, the start of tapering in 2014 marked the beginning of bitcoin’s 2-year bear market. In 2017, quantitative tightening started in October, and the 2018 crypto crash soon followed. In other words, bitcoin’s inflation hedge narrative hasn’t been officially tested or widely accepted. With arbitrage opportunities, scams, hack risks, and run-on-bank fear, the crypto market is no doubt in its early stage. While superior security and scarcity give bitcoin the potential to replace gold in a new era of currency, early-stage demand side volatility makes bitcoin subject to wild price swings. The current reality is we see rising correlation between bitcoin and the equity market year after year, and the volatility is further heightened by the derivative market. In the current cycle, bitcoin’s inflation hedge value is overpowered by its volatility, and it is hard for bitcoin to rally under gloomy global macro conditions before the market matures and stabilizes. Do you agree? What’s your take on crypto under the current global macro? Support and comment below!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Phi-Deltalytics
18
Gold Set For A Big MoveGold has been coiling nicely for more than a couple months now. The Inside Month we're currently forming, along with an Expanding Weekly Structure, suggest Gold has a "large" move incoming. Question is, will it be back to a 2k handle....Or down to 1.6xx....? I think this largely depends on how much uncertainty and Global Liquidity Tightening continues to occur. If we see sentiment rise, and risk on behavior begin to rise.....Gold will likely take that lower path. If we see sentiment continue to remain low, and a risk off posture in markets, I believe we see Gold > 2k. Watch for the Shakeouts at either end of our $1800-1880 Range. If it can't hold above for at least a couple days, or doesn't break with really large volume/conviction, I'd be careful. Global Macro Environment rules ALL. Rules equities, Rules gold, Rules Bonds...... Watch credit spreads, Watch the 10yr yield....Cracks show there early on.. As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid Risk Management!!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by mrjones2020
Making Sense of the Chaos and Recognizing CyclesHey everyone! Due to the recent financial sell offs, I've seen many panic and even claim "an end to financial markets". In fact, I understand their concerns. However, many of these individuals are newbs or have not taken a close look at the history of the asset(s) they hold. This is exactly why I have chose to begin posting again and would like to explore the long term history of a few assets and asset classes in an effort to calm any anxiety in others that I can. I will be focusing on historical market corrections. Nothing of what I say or demonstrate is individualized financial advice to any degree. I am a speculator. You should not place trades based upon my analysis. You should not listen to a word I say. This is for pure entertainment value only and any losses you take is because you took that risk yourself. I am not liable for your actions. Ok, let's do this! A very long term look at SPX shows a volatile ride. The chart you see is a monthly log chart compressed to demonstrate as much of SPX as possible. As you can see there are many ups and downs. The data provided dates back all the way to the 1870s. So, this is where I will begin. I will be adding pictures and details about the pictures in the updates or comments sections. It's been a while since I posted, please, be patient with me.
SP:SPX
by BACapitalManagement
BTCUSD weekly (18/06/2022)(Compendium of Ideas) Macroeconomic analysis of Bitcoin with different tools and perspectives: -Increasing and decreasing cycles (HALVING and accumulations) together with (angle and percentage of yield) -Relative Strength (RSI) -Temporality (W) -Volume (Increasing or Ascending in general) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Compendio de Ideas) Análisis macroeconómico de Bitcoin con diferentes herramientas y perspectivas: -Ciclos crecientes y decrecientes (HALVING y acumulaciones) junto a (ángulo y porcentaje de rendimiento) -Fuerza relativa (RSI) -Temporalidad (W) o (semanal) -Volumen (Creciente o Ascendente en carácter general)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by AVNGL01
Macro & Nasdaq So indicators like RSI and MACD are showing that CME_MINI:NQ1! is getting to the oversold level (On monthly timeframe RSI we are at -30). So are we ready for a bounce? The technicals are hinting at "YES" but the macro fundaments... are saying "NO" The Fed admitted yesterday that it is behind he curve on the inflation. The Swiss Central Bank and EBC showed concern thru their actions. Greg Jensen at Bridgewater said this morning on Bloomberg that equities might have another 20% down before the market settles. My view is that 1. we should expect a relief rally shortly 2. the bear market will continue until a. the earnings and multiples come down significantly for the stocks b. unemployment starts to rise c. Fed finishes rates hikes and inflation starts to slow down d. capitulation eventually takes place with Vix reaching >40 The next support lines for Nasdaq 100 might be around 11k, 9.5k, 8k, 6.6k.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by xrischosser
The Bear Case for Bitcoin - likely to test 20k this yearBitcoin remains rather bearish as the current price stays below the bull market support band (20w MA and 21w EMA). It has broken the support levels in Jan/Jun,Jul 2021 and is likely to go down from here, possibly test the 20k level in the next few months. A trend reversal would require Bitcoin to break the resistance levels (orange) and get above the bull market support band, unlikely to happen in the short term. Given the current macroeconomic volatility and geopolitical instability, Bitcoin is still viewed as a volatile asset and is losing its narrative as the hedge against inflation. There is also increasing correlation with the SP500 and Nasdaq100 since end 2020 so investors and speculators are less likely to buy BTC - trading volume this year has been lower than most months of 2020 and 2021. Investors this year also do not have the free government money anymore. The recent Terra crash would also fuel the FUD and invite more central bank regulations on cryptos. There is definitely more downside to crypto and Bitcoin for the rest of 2022.
Short
by icypopsicle