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Macro

Look for DXY to be range bound The US Dollar’s descent moderated last week as traders shifted back into risk assets, ditching the safety of the world’s reserve currency. Still, measured by the DXY Index, the Greenback remains well above levels traded at just a couple of months ago. A pullback in recession fears appeared to be the main driver of weakness. Given the precarious global economic backdrop, those fears may resurface without warning. That said, the risk-taking seen last week is on shaky ground.
TVC:DXY
by UnknownUnicorn38289576
Cardano (ADA) - The Road To The Bottom ($.18) and Beyond! Daily Macro Update Below: Cardano and the Market CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D Headwinds to take into consideration BEFORE investing in what they identify as risk on assets: 06/03 - (Updated Macro View) JOBS REPORT - Est 325K / Actual 390,000 Continued USD Dominance! - TVC:DXY - (102.18) Upward momentum since 07/2021 (from 89.47 - 103.57) OIL - Continued Upward momentum - NYMEX:CL1! Historic - www.macrotrends.net State Gas Prices - UP UP and AWAY ( $4.761 per gallon) - gasprices.aaa.com FED TALK - Mester says inflation hasn't peaked, MULTIPLE half-point rate hikes are needed - www.cnbc.com 06/02 - (Updated Macro View) Jamie Dimon's Hurricane Comment: www.cnbc.com (People should take not coming from Jamie, potential significant heads up) Latest ISM Report (May 2022) BULLISH OUTLOOK: Anything above 50% is considered growth Manufacturing PMI - 56.1% - www.ismworld.org Services PMI - 55.9% - www.ismworld.org Hospital PMI - 56.3% - www.ismworld.org April Jobless Claims in at 200K (Extremely low) : Ukraine War Crude Prices: Macrotrends Covid / Monkey Pox / Viral flavor of the month (Fear Tactics) Supply Chain Challenges Manufactured slowdowns of goods...for example China closing key manufacturing plants in an attempt to retain pricing power. Continued FALLING YEN! (Danger Zone) BTC CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D .D Dominance! (46.93% Currently) Up from 39.26% in Jan 2022 Housing: Who would have EVER thought the CURE of the housing shortage was higher interest rates. By some sort of miracle, there's no longer a shortage! www.thetitlereport.com *** CAUTION *** There are significant CRACKS in housing, especially in those areas that enjoyed MASSIVE double-digit gains in most recent years. Looking for WALL ST corps to dump asset inventories so as to not carry negative appreciative assets on their balance sheets. 1 out of 5 homes on the market currently has price reductions already. Look for significant additions of inventory VERY soon as even more people are priced out and corporate landlords like BlackRock will be looking to offset their portfolios not gain. The FED also looking to sell MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) instead of buying them, will force lenders to keep more mortgages on their balance sheets (They are already adjusting for tightening lending requirements. REFI markets with even higher interest rates are almost completely DEAD. Mortgage companies have already begun restructuring (layoffs) of many mortgage personnel. Looking for a 40-50% reduction in housing prices (Generally speaking, go back to 2016 / 2017 and add 5% to those sales prices and that will provide realistic guidance of where the housing prices will retrace to. ALL of the above is strictly entertainment and not financial advice. ;-) GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!
COINBASE:ADAUSD
by Askatec
8
GBP - a detailed analysisA detailed GBP analysis: Negative factors: ➡️Last week's PMIs were disastrous. GDP often follows the PMIs, which paints a very bleak picture for the future of the UK economy. ➡️Inflation is at a dizzying 9%. ➡️The consumer is suffering the consequences of inflation and sentiment is thus in the basement. ➡️Sometimes retail sales also follow consumer sentiment (strong correlation). ➡️If retail sales actually collapse to such an extent, this would further weaken the UK's growth and a recession would be a real risk (Next retail sales release on 17.06.22) ➡️With the threat of a recession, the central bank of England (BoE) would row back sharply on the interest rate hikes already priced in as not to put further strain on the population and the economy -> this would result in GBP weakness. (Next BOE meeting on 16.06.22) ➡️Brexit disputes with the EU could boil up again and put additional pressure on the GBP. However, much of this is already more or less priced into the GBP and the reason why the GBP is one of the weakest G10 currencies since the beginning of the year. Now to the positive sides: As mentioned, the labour market in the UK is booming and the unemployment rate is at an all-time low. -> As long as the labour market can remain stable, there is hope for the UK economy. -> but at the same time this means that if we get much weaker labour data in the future this would weigh massively on the GBP (next labour data will be published on 14.06.22, even before the BOE meeting) ➡️On Thursday the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a new £15 billion fiscal package where those on the lowest incomes are to receive a one-off payment of up to £600 from the government. This is a big boost and can add up to 0.7% to the UK's GDP -> this is very positive for the GBP As mentioned, much of the negative is already priced into the GBP, so many speculators (hedge funds, trend-following algos) are already heavily short GBP. When so many speculators are already short, the danger of short squeezes is high. -> Short squeezes can be particularly violent and result in a rapid rise in the GBP price. Conclusion: In the long term, the negative factors weighing on the GBP outweigh the positive factors for me, but in the short term much of this is already priced in and it would take a short squeeze to force the speculators out of the market. Only then would the GBP be an attractive short candidate for me for a long-term swing trade. -> The factor that would make the GBP a long-term short candidate earlier would be a sharp weakening of the labour market. ℹ️This analysis was from the point of view of a long-term swing trade. Of course, shorter-term day trades in GBP (in either direction) are equally possible at any time. Tip: Look out for the GBPUSD at 14:00 GMT time today. It will highly likely trade at 1.25500 and after that a bigger move could follow.
Short
by PrimeTrading
1
BTC Macro SupportI thought this was interesting, in the past both bear markets formed a falling wedge , touched the support trend line of the pattern once, touched the 200 MA, also touched and stayed above the red logarithmic line other than the black swan event but it still kept above the line. In both cycles after these happened, a bull run occurred right after. It seems right now, we still haven't found support within the wedge, which has me thinking we might still go down during the month of june 2022 and possibly finding support around july 2022 or august 2022. As well, the blue vertical lines shows when BTC picked up the most momentum right before it blast off to all time high.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Gg23gg53
DXY UPDATEToday at 17:20 GMT Fed chairmen J.Powell will make a speech volatility is expected across the markets, generally speaking on such macro economic news events the price will tend to reverse the price action from the current week to hunt liquidity, the news is usually used as a catalyst to do so. With that being said taking a look at the USD index we can identify price has been making a bearish correction since the huge rally we have recently seen. There is a strong level of4H demand identified on the chart be cautious to see a strong bounce from this zone which will of course effect all the markets . Remember the opposite correlation between BTC and USD
TVC:DXYLong
by ITSCRYPTO1
Market outlookThe S&P500 has done exactly as I feared. Thesis: The US is transitioning. The US dollar was the reserve currency of the world. We exported dollars and it either sat in banks or was imported back as investment (Bonds and stocks). When we locked up Russia's money we made EVERY country re-evaluate their relationship with us. A significant pivot is happening on the macro scale. The US's future lies in how we make use of the US coming back home. I expect production of goods and base commodities to begin to truly take over for years to come. I do NOT expect to invest significantly in the S&P500 again until 2028-2032. Things to keep in mind: 1. Valuations are still absurd. and either significant inflation or a drop in price is needed to bring them back to levels I would purchase at. 2. Relief rally should happen soon. Remember bear market rallies rip harder and faster than rallies in a bull markets. 3. The fed is squeezing the economy trying to reduce inflation. Until they pivot, expect lower lows. 4. There is a non-zero percent chance we enter a sustained bear market until 2028 ish. The first "real" one in 40+ years. 5. Commodities are looking great. They may drop for a bit longer but if you look back 50 years and adjust for inflation we are in the initial innings. For reference silver is 21.93$ and based on my calculations of inflation, its high was above 800.00$. 6. I am forecasting gold to go to 8000 over the next 6 years even if everything goes "well" for the west just due to the USD being revalued lower. If things get truly dicey I am expecting gold to reach 25,000 an ounce. 7. Remember the insidious nature of inflation. Even if we assume official levels of inflation are accurate and expect 5% for the next 5 years, cost of living will increase by at LEAST 29%. I expect levels closer to 80-300% increase cost of living based on my macro thesis. Large unknown factors: 1. Europe is looking terrifyingly weak. If Europe begins to destabilize I expect a rush into the dollar for a time. This will have many unpredictable problems. We may see inflation cool for a time due to that but it just makes the problem bigger down the line. 2. If the US gov suddenly finds a cause that allows them to bless off on 50-200T in money printing I expect that to drastically shift what happens. It may prop up the stock market or it may be the final proof to investors they lost control and create a global bank run. 3. Contagions: in 2008 we saw one of the largest expressions of a contagion event. The entire financial world locked up. There are 100X's more dangers of similar events now than there where in 2008 because we never fixed the underlying problem and allowed it grow exponentially. 4. Food and energy are becoming huge global risk factors. Don't underestimate the global effects of wide spread starvation and loss of energy augmentation to humanity. My call is just based on the worlds Covid response. This is not even factoring in Russia and Ukraine. Western countries will be buffered from both of these trends but we will still strongly feel this through second and third order effects. Don't underestimate the power of starvation and lack of energy to produce large scale contagious risks unlike we have ever experienced in anyone's memory.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Nexusfurian
BTC Idea: May 19, 2022 (Fibonacci Analysis) Intraday Idea: LONG When price gets near, around & below $27K handle, look to buy . Targeting $30K handle The .50 level of the Fib Retracement & .75 level of the Fib Resistance Fan act as static & dynamic support levels. Price Target : $30,000.00 BTC SHORT When price gets near, around, & above $30K handle, look to sell . Targeting $27k handle The .236 level of the Fib Retracement & .618 level of the Fib Resistance Fan act as static & dynamic resistance levels. Price Target : $27,000.00 BTC
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by brandonmattis
2
Bond - Equity Correlation: The Most Important Question?TVC:US10Y TVC:NYA A reminder that falling bond yields are synonymous with higher bond prices. In other words, a downtrend in yield equates to a bull market in bonds. In January, bonds were still in a technical bull market as defined by the broad declining channel that had contained the 40 year bull market. In March the break of that downtrend turned the macro trend from bullish to neutral. Now, all that is left to define a bearish trend is a substantive violation of the 3.25% pivot zone. More recently, after testing the major macro pivot in the 3.25% zone, ten year Treasury yields have fallen sharply. The decline begs the question: Is the decline the result of the decades long negative correlation between equity and fixed income reasserting itself on the back of equity weakness or is it simply the beginning of a relief rally created by the combination of major support and a deeply oversold condition? While it is too soon to answer the question with any degree of certainty, it is clear that the outcome will have vitally important macro/portfolio implications. My guess is that if equities continue to weaken, that the bonds will continue to do better, but that without the bid provided by flight-to-quality that the outlook for bonds will quickly deteriorate as the oversold condition is alleviated. In future posts I will provide a deeper dive into the shorter term technical and fundamental outlook for bonds, but the posts from January 2, 11, and February 9 should provide adequate background for now. Early in the year I published a five part market overview detailing my macro technical and fundamental views of the "Big 4" asset classes: Equities, Rates, Commodities and the Dollar. As part of that series I discussed the importance of the correlation between equities and bonds and the central role falling inflation played in creating the relationship. This inverse correlation is a historical anomaly, yet it drives much modern portfolio construction. The idea is that when equities decline sharply, flight to quality in bonds pushes rates lower (bond prices higher). In other words, gains in the bond portion of the portfolio partially hedge losses in the equity portfolio. Variations of the 60/40 portfolio construction (60% equities and 40% bonds) and risk parity strategies are intended to shield investors from the worst of equity declines and indeed have had an admirable track record of reducing return volatility. After decades of success, the amount of assets devoted to this strategy, both overt and passive, is staggeringly huge. If the historic positive correlation is reasserting itself due to a change in the trend of inflation (stocks down and bonds down), the subsequent unwind has the potential to create massive dislocation. In my view, the combination of extremely negative real rates (nominal rates less inflation), an inflation cycle that has turned from virtuous to vicious, and equity markets, that at least at the index level, are extremely overvalued, may be setting the stage for a polarity switch in which bond prices and equity prices fall and rise together. That has clearly been the case so far this year. Year-to-date (YTD) the bond composite has returned approximately -12% while the S&P has returned approximately -1%. In other words, both sides of 60/40 and risk parity portfolios have lost considerable value. If the year were to end now, it would be a historically bad year for the strategy. Is the switch in correlation a short term phenomenon or the start of something much larger? To my mind, this is the central question for the remainder of this year. I think the next few months will be telling. There is also the tension between high inflation and the growing odds of a significant recession. Not only does high inflation serve as an inhibiter to real economic growth, but so will the Federal Reserves (Fed) effort to return inflation to its long term trend. Paul Volcker had to create twin recessions to beat the great inflation. I doubt very much that this Fed will escape without having to make a similar choice. Notes: It is worth remembering that in an economy that is overly financialized and debt burdened, rising rates often break the weakest link in the economic chain. Weak links can be systemically important institutions, sectors or simply a dramatic sell off in the equity markets. That markets are currently in distress is clear. What isn't clear is that the distress is enough to create a systemic risk event. Bonds and equities frequently move into and out of positive and negative correlation in shorter time frames. When I talk about historical correlation I am referring to the very long term. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
TVC:US10YEducation
by CMT_Association
26
USDJPY (Hedge Idea) With all financial markets preparing for the upcoming summer rate hikes, I predict markets will consolidate within a larger than usual range presenting great opportunities for investments. Next Hike: June 15-16, 2022. Hedge Idea (Scale / Intraday): Short: Scale into positions when price breaches 130.000 handle up to the top third end of the range (131.500) Long: Scale into positions when price breaches 128.250 handle & below to the bottom end of the range (127.000) POST FOMC HIKES (Mid-Term Forecast): LONG Target Price: 140.000 Target Date: End of July / Beginning of August
by brandonmattis
Bitcoin Macro Bottoms Market UpdateCMF: Hit MFI: 3 points from floor RSI: 2 points from floor CCI: Hit Additional updates: S&P Bollinger Bands 1D: Historically leaving these bands meant we were close to the bottom in BTC. S&P RSI 12D: Historically hitting ~44 meant we were very close if not at the bottom (currently 47.25). BTC DVDI 6D: We've started getting red candles on the 4D, so we're getting very close to what has historically been a bottom. I'm watching the 6D DVDI as it seems to capture the absolute bottom candles and nothing above - getting close to crossing. BTC: In order to hit the RSI floor, price would need to reach further down than 2 points initially, but then the 3 week close would be right about 42. That could mean a wick down to 25k. No guarantees we see further downside. DCA into the lows and DCA out the highs.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ungovernable
A Potentially Life-Changing Opportunity Most People Will MissToday I'm going to address my perspective on Bitcoin. I see this as a potentially life-changing opportunity for a lot of people, but I also understand that many people will simply overlook this opportunity. I'll talk about the overall macro structure of what I'm seeing for Bitcoin's cycle, the force behind this bearish price action, and the most logical and reasonable approach to the market. This post is not financial advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Macro-Cycle Chart - Above is the macro cycle chart for bitcoin that I have been referring to for almost a year now. - I've explained this in multiple other posts, but just to reiterate some of the key points: Bitcoin demonstrates diminishing returns and extended cycles due to its tokeneconomics supply structure. - After the halving event takes place, it takes longer and longer for Bitcoin to reach its cycle peak, as demonstrated in the case of 2012 and 2016. - We can also use the fibonacci retracement tool to understand key support and resistance zones. - The 1.618 fibonacci level first acts as support, before Bitcoin marks the cycle top at the 2.272 fibonacci level. - After the cycle ends, it then acts as support, and the price forms a bottom near those levels, where smart money accumulated before the beginning of the next rally. - Applying the same logic to the chart we see today, we have only tested the 1.618 fibonacci level, and are yet to test the 2.272 fibonacci level. - From an elliott wave perspective, I think that one last impulse wave is still a probable structure, despite how dire the situation is. Driver Behind Bearish Price Action - So what's causing Bitcoin to crash so hard? - Recently, bitcoin has been heavily paired to the equities market, which has been hit with the sentiment of fear regarding rate hikes. - Additionally, the Terra ecosystem's crash offered an appealing arbitrage opportunity for traders, incentivizing them to sell, which led to a market crash. - It's important to understand that sentiment is the key driver behind this price action. - Fed rate hikes, contrary to popular opinion, does not have a direct impact in the financial markets (click on the post below) My Thoughts on the Best Course of Action - Personally, I believe selling (or cutting losses for most) at these levels is the most imprudent move one can make. - Have the fundamentals changed? Is Bitcoin not what we used to know anymore? Has the network been hijacked to create more than 21m in supply? - If the answer to the question above is 'no', the investment thesis shouldn't change. - I think $30k is a very appealing region of interest, and I continue to accumulate at these levels. - On a personal level, this gives me vibes of when Bitcoin was at $9k, and Ethereum at $350. Conclusion Eventually people will do what they feel like doing, so I really have no intentions of convincing anyone to buy Bitcoin. But before you press that short button, take a minute to think about exactly why it is that you're shorting. What makes you bearish on the most innovative invention of the 21st century? The simple fact that prices have gone down significantly? I'm looking forward to the next 3-5 years in the crypto space and making decisions today based on it. I'm either overlooking a simple fact that most people (except myself) are aware of, or I'm possibly on a path to making generational wealth. I think I'm leaning more towards the latter. Regardless, I hope this post helps you in adjusting your view of the market to be more objective, so that you can make better decisions today for your well-being in the next few years. If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
BNC:BLXLong
by Michael_Wang_Official
7
BTCUSDT VOL SQUEEZE + FALLING WEDGEImportant things to note: There are actually reasons to be short term bullish right now, yay! Bullish Divergence is building right now on the lower timeframes. Falling Wedge should push price into my box. Watch for creation of inverse H&S on push up. IH&S would likely lead to retest of top trendline. Price is holding up well given the circumstances. Large buyers have been stepping in on spot. Futures still getting rekt. Likely covering spot purchases. On chain data shows very low supply. A supply shock would lead to a decoupling from QQQ. Macro situation still very uncertain. I am macro bearish until the Fed switches gears and implements yield curve control (which they will). Tradfi getting rekt hard. I do not see an end to the macro situation until the Fed breaks the credit market. Hello everyone! I hope you are all doing well! My last box was hit perfectly. It took a little longer than expected due to earning season for tradfi. I have some good news. I have been keeping my eye on supply and it looks very promising. So, we have large buyers stepping in on spot which is keeping the price from falling into goblin town with the rest of Tradfi. Futures are still putting a lot of sell pressure on BTC at the moment, but the spot buys are offsetting it. This is causing a vol squeeze which can either push price up or down. I can see RSI bullish divergence building on lower timeframes and we can see a nice falling wedge. I will be looking at the PA on the way up to my new green box. Specifically, I am looking for the formation of an inverse H&S pattern which would bring the price up to test the top trendline. Though I am short term bullish, I am macro bearish until I see the Fed pivot on their hawkish stance. The Fed is currently breaking the credit market, which is breaking the equity market. Eventually, they will need to reverse course and implement yield curve control to stop the bloodshed. When this occurs, the market will have bottomed and pump rather hard. I can see this happening in the next 6-9 months, so stay tuned. The good news is that if BTC can push itself a bit higher, you will not have to worry about BTC breaking 30k when Tradfi bleeds. I think the supply shock coming into BTC along with short term bullishness can act as a good buffer against the macro environment. This is bitter sweet for me because I would love to purchase more BTC on the cheap. I have been buying steadily since the last drop to 32k. I will continue to update you once my box has been hit! Keep an eye on the price action! Thanks everyone! So tell me what you think? Not financial advice. Do your own research.
Long
by mysticalwalrus
8