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MOS: Trading the ChannelBuilding on the prior idea, this stock remains good but fundamentally is priced well. I think we have seen a fundamental shift in demand for the shares and they will remain channel bound upward until we see a significant change. Institutions have been re-balancing their portfolios (ETFs/Mutual Funds etc) with names like MOS giving it a boost in demand (and removal of supply). However, this is a double edged sword as this will mean that as their portfolio sells off (let's say from individuals selling the ETF - or just a broad risk reduction) MOS will get picked up in the beta (as their portfolios naturally have positive beta to the major indices). For this reason, I think we can revise our view to be slightly less bullish and apply more of a longer term channel trading program. If the shares sell off institutions will top off the trade, and if it rallies it will get sold as part of risk management procedures. I will look to buy/sell channels and top off the trade by legging into strangles as they approach the channel top and bottom. The original "Bullish Breakout Trade" remains profitable for me and I see no reason to take profits here. I don't think the agricultural crises gets resolved any time soon (or possible in the next 5 years as we enter a new cold war era) and structurally this remains a bullish trade. The latest sell off establishes the channel range. I marked 2 interesting points to comment on how the trading structure of the stock changed. The first is the revised upward slope in an otherwise general multi-year downtrend indicating some slowing down in sellers. The other is a total change of character (capitulation at the end of the trend), marked by a long bar that clearly looks like a reversal, with good volume behind it and then little effort to move the stock up. Most likely at the end of this upward channel we will see something similar of the like.
NYSE:MOSLong
by quantitativetendies
BTC Macro - Is $20,000 REALLY Likely?$29,000/$30,000 is major support. If breached, expect $20,000. If THAT is breached, expect $12,000 or lower. However, I am skeptical about the $20,000 level being potential support. Building support over a previous peak from 2017 could be a little far-fetched. I see that there was MORE resistance at the $12,000 level, and the break of that level led to the 2021 all-time-high. That seems like a logical level to target for support if not lower.
by UnknownUnicorn17853784
4
GOLD: FALLING WEDGE, NEW LONG OPPORTUNITY?Hello Fellow Gold Bugs! From a technical perspective, Gold is forming the falling wedge pattern. The trend analysis also indicates a bullish movement. Therefore, We expect Gold will move upward to the target area. The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the support/target area. *Disclaimer: The outlook is only used for Educational Purposes, The Creator doesn't responsible for any of your trade position or other financial decisions* FOLLOW and LIKES FOR MORE CONTENTS AND UPDATES
TVC:GOLDLong
by financialfreedomgoals101
US 10Y Yield Nearing 3%I believe that watching the US10Y is a great way to gauge what's happening in the equity markets. As we've been witnessing, stock valuations are being compressed and investors are feeling the pain. I've been watching this chart for a while, and you can see that the 10-year Treasury yield is nearly at 3% and is at 4-year highs. This is something to definitely keep an eye on as we continue to see a hawkish fed. We could see a change in dynamic within the secular trend of the market if this scenario continues in this trajectory.
TVC:US10Y
by ZenitCrypto
BTC/USD Weekly Elliot WaveHere's a possible scenario from the chart using a common Elliot Wave pattern. The dotted lines are support/resistance in confluence to the VPVR. Whether or not this plays out is dependent upon geopolitical concerns, and how the market responds to the fed increasing interest rates by 50 basis points next month. I will personally never sell the bulk of my Bitcoin, but I'm looking for a good entry point to deploy more capital. I'm going to be scouting on-chain metrics and looking at oscillators on the daily time frame to find some confirmation. I'm hoping this scenario plays out, but I still need more confirmation before I put in my long. ***Not financial advice***
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ZenitCrypto
USA: That GDP HeadlineCNBC: U.S. GDP fell at a 1.4% pace to start the year as pandemic recovery takes a hit First thing we need to do is ignore the headline completely and dig into the details. "Just tell me if it's good or bad!" It's not that simple. The problem with any broad-based measurement like GDP is that the good stuff is hiding in the details. Quick recap of the GDP calculation: GDP = private consumption + gross private investment + government investment + government spending + (exports – imports) And it's that last part that matters most: (Exports - Imports). Take a look at this chart comparing US imports and exports 👇 Usually, the two move roughly in lockstep even as the US maintains a large trade deficit with the world (by importing more than it exports). That trade deficit has ballooned since the pandemic with imports massively outpacing exports. Why does that matter? Because Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. Imports, by definition, aren't produced within the country's borders. One countries' imports are another countries' GDP (the exporter). So the yuuuuge trade deficit was a big part of the picture. There was plenty to be positive about in the report. Demand was strong and as Jason Furman notes private final domestic demand was up 3.7% in Q1. Consumption: +2.7% Business fixed investment: +9.2% Residential investment: +2.1% Yes, it's a negative GDP print, but the underlying economy is still strong. However, it's also a negative GDP print, so we shouldn't just dismiss it out of hand. We need to frame the recession talk. A recession is defined as: "A significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." Then there's a technical recession which is defined more simply as: "Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth" We're nowhere near it on the first measure, but just one quarter away on the second measure... 😜 And the data today was once again indicative of a strong economy in March. Income & Consumption both came in above expectations. The Employment Cost Index at 1.4% will be hot enough to keep the Fed sweating about a wage-price spiral embedding inflation in the economy. For now , the US economy is ticking along nicely.
ECONOMICS:USGDPQQ
by FinkPro
1929 ReduxI have been waiting for the moment where my confidence was high enough to say the top was in for most of 2021. The relentless grind upwards has kept providing moments that "could be the one", but all have been quickly bounced before any real technical damage could be done. Hence, we went almost a year from the last 5% SPX correction until now. This will be long-winded, because, well, this is as much a high timeframe macro fundamentals call as it is a technical one. I called for the intergenerational top in January 2020 on SPX and NDX. The short trades I drew on those charts stayed below their stops heading into the pandemic crash, and that crash brought them to my 2nd TP target (of 3). I had not expected this crash to happen in a one-month straight-line crash, expecting instead a normal bear market for US equities lasting 1-2 years, but the pandemic was a genuine black swan catalyst. My logic on that call was fairly straightforward - my indicators showed us looking like the 2000 top, a repo crisis in 2019 had the Fed pouring money into a what seemed like a leaking bucket, and valuations relative to GDP had matched 2000 levels almost precisely. TSLA and AAPL had gone parabolic out of nothing in a way that was deeply disconnected from fundamentals since that October 2019 intervention. It seems quaint now, but the "stonks only go up" meme had become prominent and fear-euphoria metrics were showing the most euphoric market since 2000. ...and then I've been wrong ever since and missed the longest, fastest bull rally in the history of US equities. Mea culpa. It turns out that it was actually possible for monetary and fiscal stimulus to plug the dam. The amounts involved were historically unprecedented, and they successfully stabilized the system. I'd argue that this is for the better of humanity too, given that an economic crash inside of the pandemic likely means immensely more death and suffering than if we timeshift the brunt of economic carnage until we're past COVID-19; though there's plenty of reason to be aghast at how little shared sacrifice was asked of and is still not being asked of elites relative to everyone else. With hindsight, it was a substantial disadvantage that my background before ever touching trading was in graduate-level bioscience, meaning I actually understood how the pandemic was playing out, that it would likely last much longer than anyone but pretty much the scientists themselves was saying, and that governments were failing to get it under control by reopening too early. Thus, I was broadly correct about what happened in the real world while the market continued to trade a parallel universe consensus that everything was sunshine and rainbows. I am too young to have my own memories of trading in 1998-2000 was like, and that's the only thing that appears comparable to the post-pandemic market structure. Fundamentals, at least at the macro level, completely stopped mattering, or really, they became inversely correlated as anyone who traded their disbelief on that basis got squeezed. Bears, and with them, all tethering to reality itself, have gotten drowned in liquidity. Leverage via the options market has gone frank parabolic. US equities inflows in the past year have totaled more than the net inflow of everything from the 2009 bottom to before that window combined. Meme stocks have gotten bid up purely because they can be, and then the inflows from index ETFs have sustained those bubbles. NKLA, a company where the CEO is outright indicted for fraud at this point, retains a $5B market cap because it's in the Russel 2000. The percentage increase in NDX bottom to top from 2009 to now is now a larger parabola in percentage terms than the one which led to the 2000 crash. Valuations have run well past 2000 levels and are now at 1929 levels. We took a 2000-level tech bubble... and ran it up into a 1929-level total market bubble. Meanwhile, the engine of growth for the past 30 years or so, essentially since the Nikkei topped out in 1989, has been the modernization of China. A country of 1.2B people has gone from being a mostly poverty-stricken agricultural society to the standard of living of Mexico - part of the global middle class but not a "high-income", "developed" country, a bimodal country with cities of developed-world wealth alongside rural areas that are very very poor, and a country whose further progress is heavily restrained by corrupt governance. ...and the China bubble is now popping right now in front of our eyes. That has become the probable catalyst for the end of this "supercycle" - its real estate sector is 30% of its GDP, amounts to a giant piggybank of unfinished, unlivable, ghost city buildings so poorly-constructed that they frequently just topple over. Its high-yield bond market is comprised primarily of debt from that sector. If this was going to stop at Evergrande, the system would absorb it just fine, but it's already not stopping there. China has been in a slow-motion financial crisis for several years now if you've been paying attention to the thinly-covered news about it, and the dam has finally broken. Much of this junk real estate debt is USD-denominated and ultimately, the CCP can't keep the party going any longer if it wants to, so it's now setting precedents whereby foreign bondholders get stiffed while domestic bondholders get the breadcrumbs that can be salvaged. Defaults on this massive pool of USD-denominated debt is where the system is now finally breaking, since we've managed to defer the pain from the pandemic. Being the global reserve currency means that your money supply is, well, global - however safe US domestic debt may be, there's more USD-denominated bond debt being issued abroad than there is domestically and it is of far more dubious quality. Google Trends for the keyword "inflation" blew up earlier this year. As per usual, the crowd is wrong, or at best, late to the party. Inflation has been running modestly hot in the US and EU by the standards of post-2008, and people appear to have completely forgotten what "normal" was before then. Over the past 2 years, it hasn't done much more cumulatively than make up for the weakness in first few months of the pandemic. If you've read this far and this paragraph seems wrong to you, then what I'll say to that is that the way most complaints about "inflation" miss the boat is by misunderstanding what the word is actually measuring and either cherrypicking things that have clearly gone up in what is a broad index with many things that change little and some that are quietly going down, or they're looking at "asset price inflation" and missing the point that this is specifically not something that conventional "inflation" measures at all. That low inflation has slowly juiced all asset prices which feels like "inflation" of asset prices is a difference between a technical and colloquial definition. Thus, I'm calling for a deflationary bust at a time when this appears to be contrarian to, well, most everyone. I've listed several targets on SPX and NDX taken from weekly and monthly charts using my ACAT indicator. I think the top is in, given the action of the past few weeks, but I've included a bit of wiggle-room for double-top if consolidation drags out a couple more months. I'd like to think I've patiently waited long enough and found a serious change in character in this market, but if I haven't, risk of further parabolic blowoff means macro bears would need to cut the loss quickly to live to try again another day. The effect of passive flows on this market has been to accelerate the moves, so I've drawn this as a shorter duration bear market than might otherwise be the historical expectation, but if I'm correct, and this is 1929 / 1989 Nikkei, then basically people will get eaten buying the dip several times and this will end only when sentiment that the market is a guaranteed thing so long as you buy-and-hold is no longer church doctrine. Crashes on this scale have typically taken decades to retake the highs. You should expect regulation to curb excesses and that will cap the insanity - because markets like this get this insane due to clear examples of fraud and abuse. So we'll respond to things like whatever the hell games TSLA has been playing with its accounting after it blows up Enron-style, and it will be the correct thing to do because the fundamental problem with "stonks only go up" is that a lot of why the economy feels perpetually poor to so many ordinary people is that we're allocating capital to Ponzi schemes instead of actual not-fraud, real world mathematically-sound and often not-sexy businesses that can sustainably employ people with steadily rising wages over decades.
SP:SPXShort
by acatwithcharts
2
BLX Analitics 0.02BTC on a macro scale (weekly logarithmic) Seems to have found, by stretching its cycles over time, an interesting new resistance in its bull markets. It seems that the 100MA on this chart is beginning to take on real relevance as these cycles have stretched out. --------------- BTC en escala macro (semanal logarítmica) Parce haber encontrado mediante el estiramiento de sus ciclos con el paso del tiempo, una nueva resistencia interesante en sus mercados alcistas. Parece que la 100MA de este gráfico empieza a tomar verdadera relevancia al haber estirado estos cilcos. Le prestaremos más ojo como soporte y resistencia para las nuevas formaciones del gráfico, las mayores escalas siempre descifran las verdaderas intenciones y fuerzas de un mercado.
BNC:BLX
by AVNGL01
EXY Too Many "Random" Things has Happened.The price action appears to contract on the macro level but if we take a look at each swing from a geometrical point of view we have so many textbooks events that lead me to the idea that we might have finished something here and we are going back into the contracting area which eventually we'll reach the apex when we decide which way we are going in terms of trend. (This can happen earlier, of course, we just use the apex as a reference.) We might have a reaction from here or not but breaking the white trendline it's quite a significant event for me so I will keep a close look on that one. (Obviously, the next chance will be when we test it from below in the case that we break it.)
TVC:EXY
by SebiiSb
3
JICPT| CNH may weaken against USD with key support of 6.36! Hello everyone. It's been one months since I published an idea titled 'USDCNH testing policy bottom of Chinese Government'. Definitely, 6.35 is policy bottom which explained clear in the related idea below. However, it kept going down until it touched 6.30. It was very interesting to observe the huge volume . I suspected government intervened as whole figure really mattered. 6.29ish is totally different from 6.30. Coincidentally, that was the day Putin announced military operation in Ukraine. In the following days, I also noticed two abnormal volume with one thin candle and one thick candle respectively. Then, Chinese mainland market as well as Hong Kong market tumbled with CNH quickly weakened against USD. I don't think government stepped in this time. Short sellers were likely to jump in. Did the downtrend channel got firmly violated? Not at all. The key support is 6.36. If it holds well, the pair may go sideways before forming another leg to conquer the trouble channel. If it failed, the pair is likely to seek support around 6.3250. I think the weak CNH benefit China's economy. Of course, the government will also take into the account of the internalization of the currency. The strong CNH helps. Everything has two sides. Let's see where it's going. My personal view is that the pair is likely to go back to 6.50 within the next two quarters . What do you think?
Long
by JICPT
USDJPY: Something's gotta giveJapanese officials are getting very uncomfortable with the recent yen weakness. USDJPY sliced through 128 earlier, and looks set for a move to 130 in no time. Finance Minister Suzuki repeated his mantra that “Stability is important and sharp currency moves are undesirable”. Then he took it a step further, questioning the merit of the weak yen policy... “Weak yen has its merit, but demerit is greater under the current situation where crude oil and raw materials costs are surging globally, while the weak yen boosts import prices, hurting consumers and firms that are unable to pass on costs.” Suzuki added, “we will closely communicate with the U.S. currency authorities to appropriately deal with this issue.” And he'll meet with Janet Yellen on the side lines of the G20 summit to do just that. Any response is more likely to treat the symptoms rather than the causes, but it suggests that the speed of the recent moves has Japan's Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan sufficiently concerned to push back. Structurally, there's not much they can do other than try and smooth out the volatility. US yields keep on rising while Japanese yields are stuck below the 0.25% level (the BoJ has already been forced to step in and defend the yield cap), which drives traders to buy USD and sell JPY. An interesting aspect to note here is with USDJPY ticking towards 130, we're seeing the Japanese 10 year yield push against the 0.25% yield cap - which in my mind feels like something will break. The weak yen is making imports (even) more expensive, which just makes the problem worse for an economy which is highly import dependent across all sectors. 130 is a level that's been flagged as a potential pain point for a while, and US 10y yields (which typically correlate with USDJPY) are also within touching distance of 3%... Summing up, be on the lookout for further statements or actual intervention in the next few days, and don't be certain it'll be easy to get long from here, but we believe a bit more pain is to come as our datasets are suggesting that retail traders are net short USDJPY 75:25 (shorts vs longs).
by FinkPro
23
Bitcoin Macro Analysis BTC Each of the Vertical yellow lines represent the month/year of the bitcoin halvings (not including Jan2009)**LOGARITHMIC Chart** Pink Line shows the support line that has been trending since 2012, nearly inception. :) Thank you network effect. (google that if you don't know it!!) The orange(ish) circles are all exactly the same size. The peaks correlate directly to the top of the circles, after each halving but w/ a longer duration of time. (lengthening cycles, google it) This TA shows a peak around $328,000 well on its way this year 2022, but touching the support line once more again afterward to then carry its growth trajectory…
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sgoldman17
BTC Technical Update - Market Overview 4/13A quickfire analysis of the BTC market from my perspective today! Still learning how this platform works so bear with me, only realized I could look at other tabs when re-watching the VOD, so I will be sure to cover the equities/traditions perspective in the next one. This was also before my morning coffee so I'm sorry if you hear me misspeak at times. Let me know what you think! And feel free to share your own analysis/comments/questions in the discussion section!
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by mikas_h
1