BTC will drop to the 24000-30000 in the next 3 monthsas marked in the chart, BTC is squeezing above MA line in 2Y MA Multiplier indicator. If history repeats itself, one would expect bitcoin to fall to $ 24,000 -30000$ in the next 3 months.
Macro
Buying in the $20sEXPI has a solid business model and will likely be a solid growth stock. I think the price is right now for those who buy and hold for the long term. For those who are short-to-medium term swing traders, I think EXPI will dip further. I'll be looking to get back in when it hits the high $20s.
BTC Daily Hitting Macro Resistance.BTC daily has clearly seen a bounce from this strong area of resistance, we could just be consolidating before our next move higher, or we could be in distribution and look to see a retracement back to the daily Bullish Orderblock where price is at a discount and then we continue the uptrend.
I would like to see a pull back for the overall health of the market, especially some of these alts have been running super hard and have no kind of retracement, so that's not a great sign as we generally get larger and more aggressive pullbacks when they don't have time to cool off.
Is the housing market under stress?This chart shows AMEX:XHB the Homebuilders ETF vs ECONOMICS:USCSHPIYY the Case Shiller House Price Index YoY...
What do you notice?
Well, one data set is lagged by the other.
Housebuilders are far more sensitive and closer to the macroeconomic realities and housing supply and demand than the general population on aggregate (because it's their business to be, obviously).
Currently, the Housebuilders ETF is down, whilst house prices remain slightly elevated, albeit with cracks appearing as interest rates have risen, leading to mortgage rates to also increase.
You can make some parallels with Dow Theory here...
'The Dow theory is a financial theory that says the market is in an upward trend if one of its averages (i.e. industrials or transportation) advances above a previous important high and is accompanied or followed by a similar advance in the other average.'
Material costs are through the roof, and with headline inflation at multi decade highs, it's likely demand in the economy will subside as well.
See, housebuilders only build when they predict the market will sustain an upward trajectory, and one could argue with XHB ticking lower, there is fear this upward trajectory has ended.
Today we saw durable goods orders decline 2.1%, pointing to a consumer struggling with making bigger purchases amidst this inflationary backdrop.
What might this spell for house prices further down the line as the Fed decreases its holdings of mortgage backed securities, de-liquifying this part of the market?
Well, it's likely we'll face repercussions in credit as spreads widen and the wealth effect dissipates.
As I've mentioned in a previous idea ( ), this is a more key factor as credit spreads are really the elements which show which way we're headed.
I think it's time to argue that housing is facing some serious downside potential.
Euro Zone inflation at record highs!This is a big issue for the ECB, and they're very much between a rock and a hard place.
For years the bank has kept policy extremely easy, and the economy has largely become used to this.
However, they are now facing an inflation backdrop that ironically, they probably could only dream of 10 years ago (OK maybe not as high as it currently is, but you get the point).
So what do they do from here?
Just now, ECB's Philip Lane said, 'today's inflation number is very high.'
Clearly then, there is a hawkish pivot occurring in the ECB.
And we can see that the market has been pricing *some* hawkishness since the start of the year, if we look at EURIBOR futures...
EUREX:FEU31!
And the current market implied data suggests that the ECB are set to embark on a hiking cycle.
In picture 1, we can see the Euro Area 1wk refi rate, which suggests that by September, at least a 25bp hike is priced in...
Well, that is simply way too late, so think the odds will have been frontloaded way more now.
In chart 2, we can see the overall policy path, which suggests that the ECB will reach a rate of 1.00% by 2024.
And in chart 3, we can see how likely behind the curve the ECB is, especially with today's inflation prints...
There's likely a trade in here then.
If the market is expecting rate hikes further out, but they actually happen sooner, it's likely that European risk assets will be hit, specifically credit and their corresponding spreads.
This would have a knock on effect to equities.
Higher refinancing rates mean tighter margins.
So pay attention to the ECB going forward, since they have the greatest relative policy pivot from historical out of all
central banks!
Macro view Siacoin30 cents is a reasonable price range for Siacoin to reach this coming cycle. We had an approximately 85% correction from the high in April.
We saw the same type of correction from June to November 2017. Next rally up will probably be around 1500% from where we are right now.
There are lots of people saying this is some super cycle and the rising won't stop, it's reminiscent to what i've experienced in 2017.. But once Bitcoin tops (which it will between 150 and 300k probably) everything will go into a multi year bear market again. So get out when you've realized your profits. And get back in when correction levels are around 80% again.
Bitcoin eats gold 2Gold is down 17% from 2011 when adjusted for inflation . Interesting that crypto grew to about 10-20% of gold's market cap in the same time.
So I inverted the Bitcoin chart and it fills the gap like puzzle pieces.
Digital gold , inflation hedge, and software eating the world in a picture.
May The Odds Be Ever in Your FavorNot exactly making a bearish call here, just posting to bring awareness to some over ambitious traders out there.
Past 3 out of 4 trend reversals on the MACD measured in total market cap have resulted in drawdowns of double digits or more. With Bollinger Bands trading at the top of the range for several days we may see a short term return of the bears fueled by short term holders looking to exit the market and break even from q4 trades.
Given the current geopolitical situation, bond yield curve inversion, credit market jitters and fed surprises and half of this being priced in already, I dont think anyone knows which way is up anymore.
Now is the time to watch where the smart money goes and not be a hero.
Added to BTC and ETH positions with stops in at 43k and 2.9k respectively.
EURNZD - Macroeconomic, Global Macro...Prior to two weeks ago, I was looking for a new employment. I hadn't had good statistics for some weeks before to this.
However, the prior week, I received it once again...
Most of the time, when I get a foundational analysis, when I get solid statistics, and I know what should be... even if I go in SL, which is usual between Monday and Tuesday, and then already from Wednesday he is starting to travel in his direction, but it happened in 70% of the instances. That is why I have already opened a position on Monday, and I am not spending my whole day sitting in front of my computer waiting for the right opportunity for Entry, since I literally do not have that much time.
As you can see, I didn't have that type of trouble 5 weeks before on the same currency pair (EUR NZD), and we've gained more than 1500 pips in 3 weeks. That is very wonderful...
Now EUR NZD is doing the same thing, however this time I was moving my stop loss higher, till it didn't start going in the proper way...
If you understand what fundemental anaylisis is, and you see the down figures that I provide you, you will understand what I am talking about... and you will be able to see where they are going after I have posted them...
To be sure, numbers do not lie, and that is a fact :)
Thank you so much, and thank you for your confidence!
UST10yr to test 2.0% before going up to 2.4%Supported by macro outlook of inflationary pressure, defined in details using technical analysis from support and resistance as well as volatility contraction pattern (VCP).
Bullish bounce Activision Blizzard There are several factors that lead me to thing ATVI will have a very strong bounce in the near few. One of which is the MACD. On 1D it is getting back to the cross point. This could mean that it would go lower right. Well on the 240 it is well below the cross. Signaling a sign of probability over sold also judging by previous supply and demand zone. It may want to rise back up to that cross on the 4 hour. Making that 1D MACD bounce very likely.
Also speaking of 1D and 240 candle the RSI looks to be getting very low. With the 1 hour and 4 hour look to be getting back up on the RSI. The daily could see a reversal due to the strong reduced angle it has been since the 15th.
Another factor I believe this to be at or near a bounce into the bullish direction is the BOLL. I been seeing the BOLL has strong support and resistance. It is at that low BOLL line on the 1D usually point in the direction of getting back to center or testing the upper line.
GBP/JPY Outlook (18 March 2022)Overall, GBP/JPY is ranging across.
The Bank of England (BoE) hiked interest rate by 0.25% yesterday during their monetary policy meeting. However, the central bank revised its language on future rate hikes from the previous “likely appropriate in the coming months” to “might be appropriate in the coming months”, indicating a lower likelihood of future rate hikes. Furthermore, all but one committee member voted for a hike of 0.25% while the other member voted for a hike of 0.50%. This voting result is less hawkish when compared to the previous result of five members voted for a hike of 0.25% and four voted for a hike of 0.50%. As a result of this dovish rate hike, GBP took a hit and weakened across the board.
Currently, GBP/JPY is testing the resistance zone of 156.000 and the next support zone is at 153.800.
Look for short-term selling opportunities of GBP/JPY if it rejects the resistance zone of 156.000.
GBP/USD Outlook (18 March 2022)Overall, GBP/USD is trending downwards. Recently, GBP/USD bounced off the resistance zone of 1.32200.
The Bank of England (BoE) hiked interest rate by 0.25% yesterday during their monetary policy meeting. However, the central bank revised its language on future rate hikes from the previous “likely appropriate in the coming months” to “might be appropriate in the coming months”, indicating a lower likelihood of future rate hikes. Furthermore, all but one committee member voted for a hike of 0.25% while the other member voted for a hike of 0.50%. This voting result is less hawkish when compared to the previous result of five members voted for a hike of 0.25% and four voted for a hike of 0.50%. As a result of this dovish rate hike, GBP took a hit and weakened across the board.
GBP/USD’s next support zone is at 1.30400 and the next resistance zone is at 1.32200.
Look for short-term selling opportunities of GBP/USD.
EUR/JPY Outlook (18 March 2022)Overall, EUR/JPY is ranging across. Recently, EUR/JPY broke above the key level of 131 and traded into the resistance zone of 131.500.
Currently, EUR/JPY is testing the resistance zone of 131.500 and the next support zone is at 130.000.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of EUR/JPY if it breaks the resistance zone of 131.500.
EUR/USD Outlook (18 March 2022)Overall, EUR/USD is trending downwards. Recently, EUR/USD broke the resistance zone of 1.10000.
Currently, EUR/USD is testing to break below the key level of 1.10. Its next support zone is at 1.11000 and the next resistance zone is at 1.12000.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of EUR/USD if it bounces up from the key level of 1.11.
NZD/USD Outlook (18 March 2022)Overall, NZD/USD is trending upwards. Recently, NZD/USD broke the resistance zone of 0.68400.
Currently, NZD/USD is trading up towards the key level of 0.69. Its next support zone is at 0.68400 and the next resistance zone is at 0.69500.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of NZD/USD if it breaks above the key level of 0.69.
AUD/USD Outlook (18 March 2022)Overall, AUD/USD is trending upwards. Recently, AUD/USD broke the resistance zone of 0.73000.
The Australian employment data released yesterday indicated more jobs were created in February than in the previous month while unemployment continued to decline.
- Employment Change (Actual: 77.4K, Forecast: 36.0K, Previous: 28.3K revised from 12.9K)
- Unemployment Rate (Actual: 4.0%, Forecast: 4.1%, Previous: 4.2%)
AUD/USD’s next support zone is at 0.73000 and the next resistance zone is at 0.75000.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of AUD/USD if it breaks above the key level of 0.74.
USD/CAD Outlook (18 March 2022)Overall, USD/CAD is ranging across. Recently, USD/CAD trended into the support zone of 1.26100.
The Canadian retail sales data will be released later at 2030 (GMT+8).
- Core Retail Sales m/m (Forecast: 2.3%, Previous: -2.5%)
- Retail Sales m/m (Forecast: 2.4%, Previous: -1.8%)
Currently, USD/CAD is testing the support zone of 1.26100 and the next resistance zone is at 1.29200.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of USD/CAD if it rejects the support zone of 1.26100.
USD/JPY Outlook (18 March 2022)Overall, USD/JPY is trending upwards. Recently, USD/JPY bounced down from the key level of 119.
The Japanese National Core CPI y/y data (Actual: 0.6%, Forecast: 0.6%, Previous: 0.2%) released earlier today indicated a rise in annual core inflation at a faster pace than previous month.
The Bank of Japan will be announcing their monetary policy decision later at an unannounced timing. With inflation in Japan running low and the high uncertainty caused by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the central bank is expected to keep it’s monetary policy unchanged for now.
Japanese banks will be closed next Monday in observance of Vernal Equinox Day. Expect lower trading volatility and volume during the usual Japanese market hours.
USD/JPY’s next support zone is at 118.000 and the next resistance zone is at 120.000.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of USD/JPY.
USD Overview (18 March 2022)Yesterday, USD weakened against most major currencies except JPY and CHF.
The housing data released yesterday indicated a slight decrease in the number of building approvals issued while the number of residential houses that begin construction increased in February.
- Building Permits (Actual: 1.86M, Forecast: 1.84M, Previous: 1.90M)
- Housing Starts (Actual: 1.77M, Forecast: 1.70M, Previous: 1.66M revised from 1.64M)
FOMC member Bowman will be speaking tomorrow at 0200 (GMT+8). During this time, there may be volatility in USD.
GBP/JPY Outlook (17 March 2022)Overall, GBP/JPY is trending downwards. Recently, GBP/JPY broke above the key level of 155 and traded into the resistance zone of 156.000.
The Bank of England (BoE) will be announcing their monetary policy later at 2000 (GMT+8). It is expected that the central bank will be hiking interest rate by 0.25%. If the central bank carries out a 0.50% rate hike, this will likely lead to the strengthening of GBP. Pay attention to the BoE’s view on how the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war can impact any further rate hikes in the future. Also, take note of any plans from the central bank regarding corporate bond sales.
Currently, GBP/JPY is testing the resistance zone of 156.000 and the next support zone is at 153.800.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of GBP/JPY if it breaks the resistance zone of 156.000.
GBP/USD Outlook (17 March 2022)Overall, GBP/USD is trending downwards. Recently, GBP/USD bounced off the support zone of 1.30400 and broke above the key level of 1.31.
The Bank of England (BoE) will be announcing their monetary policy later at 2000 (GMT+8). It is expected that the central bank will be hiking interest rate by 0.25%. If the central bank carries out a 0.50% rate hike, this will likely lead to the strengthening of GBP. Pay attention to the BoE’s view on how the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war can impact any further rate hikes in the future. Also, take note of any plans from the central bank regarding corporate bond sales.
GBP/USD’s next support zone is at 1.30400 and the next resistance zone is at 1.32200.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of GBP/USD.
EUR/JPY Outlook (17 March 2022)Overall, EUR/JPY is ranging across. Recently, EUR/JPY broke the resistance zone of 130.000.
The European Central Bank President Lagarde will be speaking later at 1730 (GMT+8). During this time, there may be volatility in EUR.
Currently, EUR/JPY is testing to break above the key level of 131. Its next support zone is at 130.000 and the next resistance zone is at 131.500.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of EUR/JPY if it breaks above the key level of 131.
