2 Year yields are weakeningWhich often signals a incoming recession.
The market leads the #FED who always raise and lower rates too late.
We have #Unemployment starting to tick up
Tight financial conditions, delinquencies on the rise.
So make hay over the next few months in memestocks, coins, bitcoin, alts, NVDA and so on.
But don't be left holding the hot potato when the music stops playings.
#Macro
#Meltup
#NVDA
#Nasdaq
#Stocks
#Bitcoin
#Altcoins
#Ethereum
#Pulsechain
Macro
TOLL Brothers #TOL new high vs US single family home priceHomemakers are making money over fist.
Does this confirm that the housing bull market will continue.
It seems like it doesn't it
This ratio highlights the housing bottom in the 90's
this Ratio also topped out in 2005 before the housing bubble popped
#Roaring20's
$GBINTRS - BoE's Snowball - The Bank of England (BOE) decided to deliver its #inflation medicine in a bigger dose
at their recent monetary policy committee meeting.
The bank made the shock decision to raise borrowing costs a half percentage point,
taking the official rate to 5% ;
double the size of the increase anticipated by most economists.
BoE hiking interest rates to 5% ,
it adds further strain to millions of homeowners across the country.
The Central Bank Rates was upped by 0.5% from 4.5% previously
and remains at it's Highest Level since 2008 Financial Crisis.
Will BoJ support Yen with a rate hike today?Macro theme:
- On Wednesday, the BoJ announced an interest rate increase and a bond tapering plan, reflecting confidence in the domestic economy's recovery and concern over the weakened yen.
- The BOJ raised the uncollateralized overnight call rate to 0.25%, marking the second rate rise this year after the Mar 19 increase, which ended negative interest rates, equity purchases, and yield curve controls.
Technical theme:
- USDJPY shifted its structure downward after breaking its support at 151.90. The price is trading below both EMAs, which is about to have a dead-cross signal, indicating that bearish momentum persists.
- If USDJPY cannot sustain above 151.90, it may extend its loss to 150.80 and 146.50.
- On the contrary, if USDJPY finds support at 151.90, the price may perform range trading within 151.90-155.80 till an apparent breakout occurs.
Industrial Production, and how it can help us time larger cyclesIn this video I use Industrial Production, and more specifically, its Rate Of Change to show how we can approximate Booms and Busts in the "Business Cycle".
I also go over previous cycles, and what to look for in our current cycle.
As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
Will the Disinflation Trend Reinforce DXY Downward Momentum?Macro theme:
- The highlight of the past week was inflation data. US Jun headline CPI slowed to 3% YoY (vs. 3.1% expected, 3.3% previous), and core
CPI was 3.3% YoY (vs. 3.4% expected and previous).
- The core service component has been declining, and rental prices may continue to fall due to delayed contract renewals.
With this inflation trend, markets expect the Fed to make its first rate cut in Sep and another this year.
- The dollar is likely to weaken, depending on the pace of monetary easing by other countries. If all major economies cut rates simultaneously, currency pairs may remain stable.
Technical:
- From a technical perspective, DXY broke its ascending channel and closed below both EMAs, shifting to bearish momentum. The index is right above its key support at 104.00.
- If DXY extends its decline below 104.00, it may aim for a nearby support area around 102.75-103.00.
- On the contrary, if 104.00 can hold the index above for a while, DXY may correct up to 104.90 before resuming its downward movement.
$DXY -Decisive Move Around the Corner !!! Dollar Index TVC:DXY on the cusp of making a major move TA speaking ;
(100.8 or 110)
- To the upside starting currently by jumping at 200EMA and breaking recent highs within pattern while facing strong resistance just above on Range Ceiling(105) and last Highs of 107(ChoCh).
- Either falling off a cliff headed in to re-visiting Range Bottom of 100.82 (Swing/Positioning)
Fundamentally speaking ;
Would be a great move to the Upside for TVC:DXY Fundamentally speaking,
resulting so on SHORTING anti-correlated assets, such as EUR/USD and other FX pairs.
Must be time for TVC:DXY to strengthen even more, makes sense ,,
otherwise Recession is just ahead !
On headlines ,
CPI ECONOMICS:USIRYY is coming lower,
with economists awaiting Fed Cuts ECONOMICS:USINTR cuts by end year.
However, worth mentioning is that wealth hedges such as TVC:GOLD continues to be stocked up in piles of tonnes from China ECONOMICS:CNGRES and not only;
China's Wealthy Class is also in the process of purchasing pure physical Gold
*** NOTE
This is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research with your own diligence and
consult your own Financial Advisor
before partaking on any trading activity
with your hard earned money based solely on this Idea.
Ideas being released are published for my own trading speculation and
journaling needed to be clear on different asset classes price action.
Macro Bitcoin ThesisThis will not be appreciated and who knows if it's right but here's my last macro prediction for the distribution of risk assets.
Curtesy of x/ki_young_ju we have what looks like to be miner selling beginning. ETF inflows are still increasing, though.
x.com
We have what looks like Bitfinex exiting stage left.
Easy to see when exchanges deviate from the Bitcoin average price we get tops.
Bitcoin Dominance is topping as well. This will be the best time to predict where you are selling your altcoins as they are already popping off, and have much more room to grow from here while Bitcoin stalls.
My idea for the flows of liquidity will be US firms will still want exposure to their Bitcoin through the ETFs but the rest of the world hasn't had the regulatory hurdles the US had, so they will be selling their Bitcoin to the US at top tier prices, causing a top, in my opinion.
The price discovery periods for Bitcoin, although higher in price, will average less in magnitude.
uranium bull run in placeURA ETF is close to second level breakout
daily chart shows a breakout already.
monthly chart is at resistance but can move higher
in the next month. Cup and handle pattern
has formed on the monthly chart.
Electric cars will need to be charged and BYD is
going to overtake Toyota and Volkswagon in the next
decade.
While the empire was busy occupying,
China was quietly working to build its economy.
Now the world can have cheap electric cars which need
to be charged.
Endeavour EXK Macro Short ideaQuite the long-shot macro idea here.
Looks like a H&S; is forming - if so, short from the right shoulder, DCA'ing into the position.
Exit near the bottom of the triangle.
After the price breaks out from the triangle, there could be fireworks to the upside, after a test and retrace.
This is entertainment for me, this is not a serious post. DYOR.
Roaring 20's #FTSE100 to meaningfully outperform UK HOUSINGA BOLD prediction --- possibly to some people
But I stand by this chart as a roadmap where I see #UK equities outperforming
against the cash cow that has been UK #Housing
The how's and what's and why's are unimportant
But the key thing is for younger people struggling to get into UK housing
Investing in #Stocks #Technology Innovation #AI and #crypto
will reap HUGE dividends these next few years
I have talked about the roaring 20's echo mania bubble before
but as we see stocks indicies around the world breaking it only confirms my thesis!
BTC - Roadmap to 82k 🗺Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
📦 Post-halving , BTC has been hovering within a big range between $60,000 support and $70,000 resistance.
📈 For the bulls to take full control again , and test the $82,000 and upper bound of the red channel, a break above the $72,000 resistance is needed.
📉 In parallel, if the $60,000 support is broken downward, we expect a bearish movement towards the $52,000 demand zone.
Which scenario is more likely to happen first? and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Litecoin: Macro Cup with Handle with a Bullish Target of $9,493Here is yet another Bullish Chart of LTC this time i'd like to point focus on a huge Cup with Handle i just discovered while looking on the higher timeframes. We haven't broken out of the handle yet but if we do out next target based off the measured move should take us to $9,493
Macro Negative Correlation with BitcoinThe US Dollar Index TVC:DXY is negatively correlated with the macro Bitcoin BNC:BLX chart.
Indicators like the Correlation Coefficient indicator will display swings from negative to positive correlation between TVC:DXY and $INDEX:BTCUSD. This can lead to a belief that they are not in fact negatively correlated.
But, when you zoom out to a macro view of Bitcoin and compare, the dollar index's peaks correspond with Bitcoin's lows, while Bitcoin's peaks correspond with DXY's lows.
At times, these corresponding peaks and valleys have occurred near the same dates and times, while at other times DXY has acted as a leading indicator for future movement for Bitcoin.
Where will we go next?
if DXY returns to its previous high and breaks it, I suspect Bitcoin will move lower
on the other hand, should DXY move further down or get stuck within a range, it's likely that Bitcoin will move higher
What do you think?
MACRO BTCUSD - The Wonder Years
Looking at Timeframes of Prev Market Cycles we seem to following the old adage "Fred Savage" ,
You may have thought I was going to say something about History Repeating itself based on the almost mirror image of Market Cycles, but When I said "Savage" , I'm starting to hear the screams and see the carnage.
I've been trying to figure out why upon that weekly closing bullish candle we are unable to set a higher high, which is still in play, however, I like to really Zoom out and approach the market as a whole.
I'm currently scratching my head and starting to wonder if we've already been to the top of the Mountain. Only a thought, an open thought, Without conclusions.
Let me know what you think in the comments
INDEX:BTCUSD
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Market update FX, SPX, Crypto 8th of AprilHello hello everyone,
Long time no see. Its been a while since i've been doing updates but its good to be back again.
We have some very interesting plays that we are ready for. Let's start with a few
1. #EURUSD - been in a very long range on the daily and what really caught my eye is the formation of a potential quasimodo pattern and a breakout to the upside. From a seasonality point of view April is a weak month for the #USD and it can be already spotted in the chart and my bet is of a weak CPI on Wednesday.
2. #GBPUSD - same as EURUSD but it looks a bit more bullish and explosive
3.#AUDUSD - broke a multi year trendline and now i think it is ready to send aggressive on the top side. We might get very quick to the 2023 high
4.#USDJPY - this one looks like a banger of a trade and i am ready to pull out the big guns for a whooping 40-48R trade yes, you read that correctly and probably retire if it goes my way :))
5. #SPX - bullish until fed starts to cut
6. #BTC & Crypto - good spot to be in general. It was very much fun to trade this period crypto, more than it was in FX but i think FX will get back to fun very soon.
Now its a game of chess and who cuts faster. But in my humble opinion i think once the Fed start to cut. Its gonna be game over for the dollar
ETH: BEGINNER FRIENDLY ✅ Methods for Predicting Ahead For those who have been following me here for the past three years, you'll know that I usually never miss an opportunity at a April Fool's prank. However, today's post is NOT one of them. Instead, I'm going to take a turn and do a post that may be of real value to many investors and speculators at this point in the market cycle.
We'll specifically use ETH for this example but these methods can be used across ALL MARKETS.
Understanding the crypto/stock/forex markets can feel like stepping into a vast ocean of numbers, trends, and predictions. As an investor, you might wonder which pricing information is truly crucial: is it the current price or the future selling price? Interestingly, many investors look beyond these immediate numbers and delve into historical pricing data to guide their decisions. But does recent pricing history actually provide reliable insight into future market movements?
Let's explore four perspectives on this topic and dive into the academic research supporting each viewpoint.
❕1. Momentum: Riding the Wave
Picture yourself on a surfboard catching a wave. Momentum in the stock market is somewhat similar - it's about riding the wave of market trends without fighting against them. Think of it as the market's way of saying, "Go with the flow!" Behavioral finance tells us that investors tend to flock towards rising stocks out of fear of missing out or driven by greed.
Academic studies, like the one by Narasimhan Jegadeesh and Sheridan Titman in 1993, suggest that stocks which have performed well in recent months are likely to continue outperforming in the short term. However, this momentum effect seems to reverse over longer periods, hinting at something called mean reversion.
❕2. Mean Reversion: Finding Balance
Experienced investors often preach the gospel of mean reversion - the idea that over time, markets tend to return to an average value. This phenomenon isn't limited to stocks; it can be observed in various economic indicators like GDP growth or interest rates. While some studies support mean reversion in certain datasets, it's not a universal truth. It might take years, even decades, for these subtle shifts to become apparent.
❕3. Wyckoff Method : Planning WAY ahead
The Wyckoff Method is a technical analysis approach to trading in financial markets, particularly stocks. Developed by Richard D. Wyckoff in the early 20th century, it focuses on understanding the intentions of large institutional players, such as smart money, through the analysis of price and volume.
The method emphasizes the principles of supply and demand dynamics, as well as market sentiment, to identify potential trends and trading opportunities. Traders using the Wyckoff Method typically study price charts, volume patterns, and market phases to make informed decisions about when to buy or sell securities. Overall, it aims to provide a framework for interpreting market activity and making more effective trading decisions.
ETH is clearly in profit release phase atm:
❕4. The Search for Value: Digging for Diamonds
Value investors are like treasure hunters scouring the market for undervalued gems. But this method also accounts for knowing when the price is over- or under valued at its current level.
Valuation Metrics include:
Market Capitalization (Market Cap): Compares a crypto's total value (price x circulating supply) to similar projects. A high Market Cap relative to peers might indicate overvaluation.
Network Value to Transaction (NVT) Ratio: Divides Market Cap by daily transaction volume. A high NVT suggests potential overvaluation, while a low NVT might hint at undervaluation.
Both ETH (436 at time of writing) and BTC (417 at time of writing) have a relatively high NVT ratio, which could be an indication of overvaluation.
❕Long-Term vs. Short-Term Investing:
Investors should consider their investment goals and time horizons when formulating strategies. Long-term investing typically involves buying and holding assets for an extended period, while short-term investing focuses on capitalizing on immediate market movements. Each approach has its advantages and risks, depending on individual circumstances and preferences.
The long and short of the matter here is buying low and selling high.
Two methods for TECHNICAL PRICE PREDICTION:
1) Fibonacci
Fibonacci can be helpful to speculate future price targets by using it on a macro scale:
2) Logarithmic Analysis
Find more information on ETH LOG here:
Is The EV Hype Over? How The Fed Is Destroying TeslaThe first quarter of 2024 is now over, closing in a record +10% YTD rally and an exceptional +43% YOY increase in the QQQ. Despite the markets pushing higher, Tesla is experiencing significant challenges, with a -30% decrease YTD and a -9% decline YOY. This performance has positioned Tesla as the worst performing megacap so far. Given these circumstances, it's essential to delve into both macroeconomic factors and technical analysis to understand what has happened and what is likely to happen moving forward.
The Macroeconomic Impact on Tesla
Two years ago, the Federal Reserve initiated a historic rate-hiking cycle, increasing interest rates from 0% to 5.5% within just over a year and maintaining this rate since July 2023. This shift in monetary policy has notably affected car financing rates, now at 8.2% for a five-year loan, which significantly discourages consumers from buying new vehicles, especially EVs.
The chart clearly illustrates an inverse correlation between Tesla stock and interest rates. Moreover, Tesla has operated exclusively during periods of historically low interest rates. Despite the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes nine months ago, the interest rate on car loans continues to rise. Further examination of inflation trends indicates that most common inflation measures have either plateaued or slowed their pace of deceleration, at a level inconsistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target.
The M2 money supply and inflation expectations are critical indicators for predicting the direction of inflation. The peak in the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) followed the peak in M2 YOY by 16 months, recently bottoming just three months before CPI YOY stopped making progress to the downside. This lagged correlation suggests that headline CPI is unlikely to continue its strong downward trend moving forward.
Moreover, inflation expectations, which remain well anchored, have also appeared to stop making progress to the downside, all remaining above 2%. This, combined with unchanged interest rates for nine months, suggests that the neutral rate of interest must be significantly higher than the pre-COVID trend.
Historically, recessions have played a key role in helping the Fed bring down inflation to their 2% target. However, current economic indicators, including low unemployment levels and easy financial conditions, suggest that a recession is unlikely in the near future, despite the fed funds rate staying unchanged at a two-decade high.
The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) captures the stimulative effects on the economy from the U.S. government's expansive fiscal policy. By borrowing and spending trillions directly from the Reverse Repo (RRP), the U.S. government has ingeniously counterbalanced the constrictive effects of tighter monetary policy without exerting upward pressure on long-term yields.
The prolonged inversion of the yield curve, significantly extended by the U.S. government's financial strategies, could mark this cycle as having the longest inversion in history. Typically, a steepening yield curve is a precursor to higher unemployment and economic recession. However, the steepening of the yield curve remains unlikely in the short term, with excess reserves still available in the RRP and the Treasury General Account (TGA).
With the U.S. employment sector still robust, showing historically low unemployment levels and low initial and continued claims, the likelihood of a significant uptrend in the unemployment rate seems low, as job openings are absorbing most of the excess labor supply and still remain well above the historical trend.
This suggests that the fed funds rate may remain at around 5% this year, maintaining car loan rates at a higher level for an extended period and consequently making EVs increasingly less affordable for the average consumer. This scenario is likely to lead to a continuation of price cuts and greater margin contractions.
Tesla's Technical Analysis Outlook
From a technical analysis perspective, Tesla stock faced rejection at the $205 horizontal resistance line and might be rejected from the $180 level, marked by the 0.236 Fibonacci level. The next significant support level is at $155, with a possibility of revisiting the January 2023 low of $110, given Tesla's stock has been in a downward trend ever since November 2021.
From a trend-based perspective, we can clearly see that TSLA stock is in a strong downtrend both in the 4H and daily timeframe with the EMAs and 20- week SMA trending lower.
Despite this unfavourable outlook, caution is advised when considering short positions in Tesla due to its market dominance and relatively stable financial position, making it a riskier target than other less financially secure EV manufacturers.
Concluding Thoughts
While the broader market demonstrates resilience, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is significantly shaping the EVs industry future. With the economy likely transitioning away from historically low interest rates into a higher interest rate environment, caution is advised. Investors may benefit from considering less interest-rate-sensitive options until a clearer picture of the inflationary landscape and its impact on the economy emerges.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
ETH - Wait For It 🏹Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 ETH has been overall bullish , trading within the rising broadening wedge in red.
Currently, ETH is in a correction phase and it is approaching the lower bound of the wedge acting as a non-horizontal support.
Moreover, it is retesting a strong support and round number $3500.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the blue support and lower red trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #ETH is around the red circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich