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RECESSION ALERT | Total Vehicle Sales Data Print DelayedWith last months revision of 818,000 jobs, it is probably safe to conclude that other data points have also been incorrectly reported (manipulated for political purposes). Total Vehicle Sales for the month of August 2024 were supposed to be published today. As of 8:45 PM EST, the data STILL has not been released.. HUH?? Total vehicle sales are a leading economic indicator. I’m guessing the numbers are bad.. really bad. In Germany, the economic powerhouse of Europe, vehicle sales collapsed in August (in August 2024). The absence of today's scheduled print is a choice. Someone decided that Total Vehicle Sales (for the month of August 2024) would not be released as scheduled. In addition to illustrating the obvious failures of the current US political administration, this is also a strong indicator that Tesla ( the entire green new scam ) is on the verge of bankruptcy. I will explain this in more detail later.
FRED:TOTALSA
by ChiefMacro
2
(Personal Savings vs IXIC) * Purchasing Power of USD (Personal Savings vs IXIC) * Purchasing Power of USD I noticed Personal Savings is very bearish, near 2011 levels. So I multiplied the Purchasing Power of USD by DXY and the IXIC, Composite Index. So it's a more fair comparison of value to the past. Then I adjusted the Decimal Places, so they would be in the same scale, for better comparison. As the arrows point out, when Personal Savings falls below the Andrew's Pitchfork Median, Bear markets start. With Unemployment up, and a dead housing market, this is a bad sign.
FRED:PMSAVEShort
by Nicklaus68
2
Stock feedback loopStock market is a adaptive system or a stock, with feedback loops (for inflow, outflow function). Where nobody knows the outcome or future, but feedbacks (corrections or resistance) gives tells (makes inflows or outflows). Without a common leader. Economists think in models (price is the result of supply-demand, or inflow-outflow) that helps to explain system behavior (short term moves), but models are just ideas to explain complex world (models work until they dont). System thinkers study the stock not aggregate behavior . Looking at markets trough perspective of "eco system" helps better understand the drivers or moving forces?
FOREXCOM:SPX500Education
by citsvar
The case for investing in ChinaThe case for investing in China I have had discussions on this platform about my investments in China, the overwhelming response I get is negative. In this article I would like to try and provide an objective, data focused case to invest in China. In a soon coming article I will look at the opposite position and the potential risks of investing in China. Less competition The first reason to consider investments in China is that there are less people searching there, and as a result more opportunities. Approximately 10%-15% of Chinese citizens own or invest in stocks. With so few people even looking at the Chinese market the amount of stocks trading below fair value is greater than that in my home country of the United States. Valuations The idea that there are more opportunities is reflected in the average valuation of Chinese equities. A metric I like to use for broad valuations is the CAPE ratio. It can be understood as the P/E ratio using 10 years of earnings. This ratio is used in an attempt to disregard cyclical earnings changes. worldpopulationreview.com The above link is the current CAPE ratios of countries around the world based on the most recent available data. At the current date 08/23/2024 China has a CAPE ratio of 13. This is compared with a CAPE ratio of 28 in the United States. In the following article I often refer to is data showing the average returns when investing at different CAPE ratios. In short the data shows that there is a substantial correlation between valuations and subsequent investment returns. www.lynalden.com Economic Data Now there are many things to discuss in this section so I will do my best to keep it brief and to the main points on why I invest in China. Personal Savings Rate : China's personal savings rate averages around 40%. This is in contrast to the United States at 3.5% consistently. Balance of Trade: Since the year 2000 China has maintained large trade surpluses as a result of their massive manufacturing output (30% of global manufacturing capacity). This is a result of their hybrid state and market run economy. China's protectionist industrial policy allowed them to develop their own local industry offering the only real competitors to Silicon Valley tech firms. In contrast the United States has had a trade deficit since the 1980's forcing us to de-industrialize and in return create a fictionalized economy based on debt and speculation. The US system requires constant inflows of capital to maintain it's currency and economic supremacy. These are the two data points I would point to to get an idea of why China has overtaken the US as the worlds largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity (their local currency) as well as the two points I bring up the most. I hope I have given a different perspective of the Chinese economy. Stay tuned for the bearish case of investing in China, and have a great day!
SSE:000001Long
by sihen999
GOLD - Rockin' Higher (MACRO BULLISH!!!!)From a macro perspective, the bullish trend has just been confirmed. With the current worldwide uncertainty regarding monetary policies, the wars going on and the political conflicts people tend to swift towards safe havens like gold since their store of value does not deteriorate in an economic crisis, it's always on demand and easily convertible. History doesn’t repeat itself but it certainly rhymes. We have two active Time at Mode weekly bullish trends. First trend expires mid September with the highest target of $2,900. Second trend expires in November with the highest target of $3,100. Combining both short and longer term trends, we could easily expect price continuation toward $3,000's by the end of the year.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by ZelfTrade
BTC $38-$40k low before macro upsideSorry to break it to y'all, but the BTC chop isn't finished yet. I expect a drop to around the $40ks which coincides with the Nov 22 low from a momentum perspective, unlocking another 10 months of upside like we previously experienced. CAPITALCOM:US500 is the main cause of this, which will cause another capitulation event before assets break correlation and boom. Timeframe can be forecasted using the resistance fan lines. I am a MAXI so trust the analysis, I want $300k+ just as much as you all do. Kappa.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by JamesSpindler
SPX Bulls - Give up already ;) Do you need more Fibonacci or is this Fibonacci enough to let you bulls understand, you are trying to win a losing game (hhhhhh). I will accept defeat once the final Fibonacci speed resistance fan line has been beaten, but even then, I will be looking out for a double top. In my opinion, this traffic zone is a desperate attempt of a trend continuation, however, there is no reason for this trend to continue currently. I think a test of the Jan 2022 highs will be enough to consider a macro reversal towards 7000, however, until then. Go to bed bulls - kappa? xD
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by JamesSpindler
9
DJI Weekly Rising Narrowing WedgeDow Jones Industrial Average has not shown many signs of slowing in its growth. Here is a bearish biased shape playing out on the weekly chart in the form of a rising narrowing wedge. Strictly PA, strictly structure. Keep an eye on this. Looking for a Macro correction to reach to the .236 or the .382 on a corrective movement. This is a follow up to a macro long idea on the DJI posted back in March 25th 2023. NFA Do your own DD Like Comment and Share!
TVC:DJIShort
by BallsOfSteel32
Will the Dovish Tone from Shinichi Uchida Help Calm the Market?Macro theme: - The BoJ's 0.25% rate hike last Wednesday, the highest in 15 years, sparked a global stock rout. The surge in the low-yielding yen, widely used for acquiring high-yielding assets like stocks, led investors to unwind their positions in currency carry trades. - Global equity markets rebounded after BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that the central bank would not raise interest rates during financial instability. This assurance pushed the yen lower and boosted market sentiment. - It is crucial to remember that panic sell-offs are often short-lived. Historically, markets have rebounded as new funding sources emerged. Currently, significant funds are parked in banks as cash or treasury bills, poised to invest in high-quality assets affected by the global panic. Technical theme: - USTEC recovered from its key support around 17300 and bounced back to close near its resistance at 18440. The index broke its ascending channel and closed well below both EMAs, indicating a potential mean reversal. - If USTEC closes above 18440, the index may retrace further to retest both EMAs and the broken ascending channel before resuming downward movement. On the contrary, if USTEC cannot close above 18440, the index may retest support around the 17000-17300 area.
CITYINDEX:USTECH100CFD
by DatTong
$GBINTRS - BoE's Snowball - The Bank of England (BOE) decided to deliver its #inflation medicine in a bigger dose at their recent monetary policy committee meeting. The bank made the shock decision to raise borrowing costs a half percentage point, taking the official rate to 5% ; double the size of the increase anticipated by most economists. BoE hiking interest rates to 5% , it adds further strain to millions of homeowners across the country. The Central Bank Rates was upped by 0.5% from 4.5% previously and remains at it's Highest Level since 2008 Financial Crisis.
ECONOMICS:GBINTR
by Mr_J__fx
Will BoJ support Yen with a rate hike today?Macro theme: - On Wednesday, the BoJ announced an interest rate increase and a bond tapering plan, reflecting confidence in the domestic economy's recovery and concern over the weakened yen. - The BOJ raised the uncollateralized overnight call rate to 0.25%, marking the second rate rise this year after the Mar 19 increase, which ended negative interest rates, equity purchases, and yield curve controls. Technical theme: - USDJPY shifted its structure downward after breaking its support at 151.90. The price is trading below both EMAs, which is about to have a dead-cross signal, indicating that bearish momentum persists. - If USDJPY cannot sustain above 151.90, it may extend its loss to 150.80 and 146.50. - On the contrary, if USDJPY finds support at 151.90, the price may perform range trading within 151.90-155.80 till an apparent breakout occurs.
by DatTong
Will the Disinflation Trend Reinforce DXY Downward Momentum?Macro theme: - The highlight of the past week was inflation data. US Jun headline CPI slowed to 3% YoY (vs. 3.1% expected, 3.3% previous), and core CPI was 3.3% YoY (vs. 3.4% expected and previous). - The core service component has been declining, and rental prices may continue to fall due to delayed contract renewals. With this inflation trend, markets expect the Fed to make its first rate cut in Sep and another this year. - The dollar is likely to weaken, depending on the pace of monetary easing by other countries. If all major economies cut rates simultaneously, currency pairs may remain stable. Technical: - From a technical perspective, DXY broke its ascending channel and closed below both EMAs, shifting to bearish momentum. The index is right above its key support at 104.00. - If DXY extends its decline below 104.00, it may aim for a nearby support area around 102.75-103.00. - On the contrary, if 104.00 can hold the index above for a while, DXY may correct up to 104.90 before resuming its downward movement.
TVC:DXYShort
by DatTong
2
$DXY -Decisive Move Around the Corner !!! Dollar Index TVC:DXY on the cusp of making a major move TA speaking ; (100.8 or 110) - To the upside starting currently by jumping at 200EMA and breaking recent highs within pattern while facing strong resistance just above on Range Ceiling(105) and last Highs of 107(ChoCh). - Either falling off a cliff headed in to re-visiting Range Bottom of 100.82 (Swing/Positioning) Fundamentally speaking ; Would be a great move to the Upside for TVC:DXY Fundamentally speaking, resulting so on SHORTING anti-correlated assets, such as EUR/USD and other FX pairs. Must be time for TVC:DXY to strengthen even more, makes sense ,, otherwise Recession is just ahead ! On headlines , CPI ECONOMICS:USIRYY is coming lower, with economists awaiting Fed Cuts ECONOMICS:USINTR cuts by end year. However, worth mentioning is that wealth hedges such as TVC:GOLD continues to be stocked up in piles of tonnes from China ECONOMICS:CNGRES and not only; China's Wealthy Class is also in the process of purchasing pure physical Gold *** NOTE This is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research with your own diligence and consult your own Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity with your hard earned money based solely on this Idea. Ideas being released are published for my own trading speculation and journaling needed to be clear on different asset classes price action.
TVC:DXY
by Mr_J__fx
Macro Bitcoin ThesisThis will not be appreciated and who knows if it's right but here's my last macro prediction for the distribution of risk assets. Curtesy of x/ki_young_ju we have what looks like to be miner selling beginning. ETF inflows are still increasing, though. x.com We have what looks like Bitfinex exiting stage left. Easy to see when exchanges deviate from the Bitcoin average price we get tops. Bitcoin Dominance is topping as well. This will be the best time to predict where you are selling your altcoins as they are already popping off, and have much more room to grow from here while Bitcoin stalls. My idea for the flows of liquidity will be US firms will still want exposure to their Bitcoin through the ETFs but the rest of the world hasn't had the regulatory hurdles the US had, so they will be selling their Bitcoin to the US at top tier prices, causing a top, in my opinion. The price discovery periods for Bitcoin, although higher in price, will average less in magnitude.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by copeharder
1
uranium bull run in placeURA ETF is close to second level breakout daily chart shows a breakout already. monthly chart is at resistance but can move higher in the next month. Cup and handle pattern has formed on the monthly chart. Electric cars will need to be charged and BYD is going to overtake Toyota and Volkswagon in the next decade. While the empire was busy occupying, China was quietly working to build its economy. Now the world can have cheap electric cars which need to be charged.
AMEX:URALong
by RogueCleaner
1
Roaring 20's #FTSE100 to meaningfully outperform UK HOUSINGA BOLD prediction --- possibly to some people But I stand by this chart as a roadmap where I see #UK equities outperforming against the cash cow that has been UK #Housing The how's and what's and why's are unimportant But the key thing is for younger people struggling to get into UK housing Investing in #Stocks #Technology Innovation #AI and #crypto will reap HUGE dividends these next few years I have talked about the roaring 20's echo mania bubble before but as we see stocks indicies around the world breaking it only confirms my thesis!
TVC:UKXLong
by BallaJi