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Macro

AUD/USD Outlook (01 March 2022)Overall, AUD/USD is trending upwards. The Australian Retail Sales m/m data (Actual: 1.8%, Forecast: TBA, Previous: -4.4%) released yesterday indicated an increase in consumer spending. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be announcing their monetary policy decision later at 1130 (GMT+8). It is expected that the central bank will keep interest rate unchanged at 0.10%. Focus on RBA’s view on the economic recovery in Australia and whether the ongoing geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine will have an impact on the Australian economy. The Australian GDP q/q data (Forecast: 3.0%, Previous: -1.9%) will be released tomorrow at 0830 (GMT+8). AUD/USD’s next support zone is at 0.71000 and the next resistance zone is at 0.73000. Look for short-term buying opportunities of AUD/USD.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
How Bitcoin Could Go to $3 million This Year (Elliott Wave)Bitcoin and many cryptocurrencies look like they are completing a contracting triangle with reverse alternation which began in 2018. On Bitcoin it looks like this could be the end of F-wave, right before we get the final blow-off wave-G. This wave could be as big as Wave-C from 2013, which is also equivalent to 161.8% of wave-d that began in 2020 and ended last year. The time target of waves D+E being equivalent in time to wave-F (big red boxes) means that we are at a major long-term inflection point this month. This could likely be linked to Biden's executive order related to "national security" and cryptocurrency, as well as a potential invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The EO could promote US cryptocurrency innovation and to compete with Russia and China and help him win votes for mid-terms while sanctioning Russian and Chinese central bank digital currencies which will be presented as an alternative to SWIFT when Russia is removed from SWIFT for invading Ukraine. If China invades Taiwan after the Olympics and is removed from SWIFT, then we could see China finalize their CBDC which has already been in public beta stage for the last year, and present it as an alternative to SWIFT and Russian CBDC's These factors as well as spiraling inflation could lead to speculative mania which sends Bitcoin to $3 million before seeing a massive crash that will take many years to fully recover from.
BNC:BLXLong
by Intuit
14
NZD/USD Outlook (28 February 2022)Overall, NZD/USD is ranging across. The New Zealand retail sales q/q data will be released tomorrow at 0545 (GMT+8). - Core Retail Sales q/q (Actual: 6.8%, Forecast: 5.5%, Previous: -6.8% revised from -6.7%) - Retail Sales q/q (Actual: 8.6%, Forecast: 6.2%, Previous: -8.2% revised from -8.1%) Currently, NZD/USD is trading towards the resistance zone of 0.67100 and the next support zone is at 0.65400. Look for short-term selling opportunities of NZD/USD if it rejects the resistance zone of 0.67100.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
Market tops after yield compressionThis is a chart showing treasury yields, color coded by duration (yellow is the 1 year, dark blue is the 30 year), with the $SPX in the lower frame. Each red line shows a major market top and how they relate to yield compression followed by inversion. It looks to me like shorter term yields always rise vs longer term yields quite awhile before bear markets occur (in the past its been months or years before). It also looks like short term yields are rising abnormally quickly this time. Yield inversion is a huge red flag that a bear market is coming and I wonder how long we have this time before that happens.
FRED:DGS5
by KingOf2Things